New FACTs on Episcopal Church Growth and Decline - The Episcopal Church
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New FACTs
on
Episcopal
Church
Growth and Decline
A look at the dynamics of growth and decline
in Episcopal congregations based on the
2014 Survey of Episcopal Congregations, in
conjunction with the Faith Communities
Today (FACT) ecumenical/interfaith survey
project
C. Kirk Hadaway
A Publication of
the Domestic and Foreign Missionary
Society
New York, New York, 2015S OME E P IS C OPA L C ON GR E GAT IONS
New A RE GR OW IN G ; MA N Y A R E S TAB L E IN
AT T EN DAN CE AND ME MBER SH IP ;
OT H ER S A RE D ECL IN IN G . WHY DO
FACTs C ON GRE GAT ION S
E XP E R IENC E L OSSE S ?
T H R IV E OR
On In seeking answers to this question, many sources
of congregational growth and decline are
Episcopal considered, including:
The setting and demographic makeup of
Church the congregation;
The congregation’s identity;
Growth and The congregation’s worship;
The congregation’s programs and activities;
Decline and
The congregation’s leadership
Much of what you will see here are factors that
help congregations grow, but in some cases the
focus will be on decline—things that declining
CONTENTS
churches tend to exhibit and growing churches are
Introduction ............................ 1 more likely to avoid.
Context and Composition ........ 2 Findings are based on Parochial Report data and
the 2014 Survey of Episcopal Congregations,
Identity and Orientation.......... 7 which was completed by 762 congregations out of
The Character of Worship ...... 12 an initial sample of 1,100. Growth is measured by
change in average Sunday attendance (ASA) from
Program and Recruitment ..... 17 2009 to 2013 using a 3-category growth/decline
variable. Growing churches grew by at least 10%
Leadership ............................ 23
in ASA (20% of the sample). Plateaued
Putting it all Together ........... 28 congregations experienced change in ASA of +5%
to -7.4%. Declining churches declined by 10% or
more (45% of churches). Churches were sampled
randomly within these populations. Churches with
moderate growth (5.5% to 9.9%) and moderate
decline (-7.5% to -9.9%) were excluded in order to
examine the characteristics of churches that were
more clearly growing, plateaued or declining.
Churches were weighted by size, as measured in
2009, and represent the size distribution of all
Episcopal churches in the United States.Context and Composition
All congregations have a context, the but many of the churches there are doing
environment where they minister, which well. And this is part of the odd context of the
includes their regional setting and their local West, where overall levels of religiosity are
community. Congregations are also lower than other regions, but where the
communities themselves, with rich social religiously engaged segment of the population
fabrics. As such, the growth/decline profile of is quite active—resulting in more rapidly
a church is necessarily affected by where growing churches than in other parts of the
they are located, the composition of the country.
congregation and how the congregation
reflects or does not reflect its community The Northeast and Midwest are much less
context. hospitable environments for Episcopal
churches. Both share population stability or
even decline in some
Figure 1. Region and Growth areas, but these
40% characteristics are
Percent of congregations growing
more endemic to the
35%
Midwest. Both areas
30% are less “religious”
27%
than the South,
25% 23%
particularly the
20% 17% Northeast. And unlike
13%
the West, the
15%
Northeast lacks a
10% large religiously
engaged subculture
5%
and many booming
0% churches.
Midwest Northeast South West
Census Region
Not surprisingly,
congregations located
Not all regions are equally fertile for the in newer suburbs are more likely to
growth of Episcopal congregations. Figure 1 experience growth than congregations in any
shows that churches in western states are other type of local community. Congregations
most likely to experience growth, followed by are least likely to grow in rural areas and
churches in the South. The Northeast and small towns. Newer suburbs are where the
the Midwest are where growth is least likely greatest population growth is occurring, of
and decline is most widespread. Growth in course. New people move into new housing
the South and West is undoubtedly related to and often look for a worshipping community
population growth through “Sunbelt” nearby. Population growth is not a dominant
migration, but historically, the South has also feature in the other locations. Thus,
been better for growth because the population congregations cannot rely on an increasing
is more likely to be active in churches than supply of newcomers, but must do ministry
other areas of the country. Religious within a stable or declining population. This is
observance remains more normative in the particularly true in older suburbs, where many
South. The Episcopal Church has fewer churches became accustomed to population
churches in the West than in any other region,
2Context and Composition
Percent of congregations growing Figure 2. Location, Location, Location?
60%
48%
50%
40%
30% 28%
30%
23%
20%
20%
12%
10%
0%
Rural area Town or Downtown Older Older Newer
or small small city or central residential suburb of suburb of
town city area of city city city
Place Where Congregation's Principal Place of Worship is Located
growth through new housing, but had to by maturity and sometimes death. For
adjust to the lack of easy growth once the congregations, unlike most other living things,
area became more stable in population. eventual decline and death are not inevitable.
The Episcopal Church has congregations
Not too many years ago, growth was least started in the 17th Century that are still alive
likely among churches in downtown areas of and thriving.
larger cities. This is no longer the case, and
many downtown areas have experienced a But very much like other organisms, initial
revival. The churches that remain downtown growth tends to be the fastest, and as shown
are somewhat more
likely to be growing Figure 3. Newest Congregations Grow More
than churches in 70%
locations other than
Percent of congregations growing
newer suburbs. 60%
54%
Congregations are 50%
living things. They
are born (or “planted”) 40%
and many flourish and 29%
grow, rather than 30% 26%
21%
withering in unfertile 19%
20% 17%
soil. Like people (or
plants), there is also a 10%
tendency for
congregations to have 0%
something resembling 1600-1900 1901-1945 1946-1964 1965-1980 1981-1995 1996-2009
a life cycle of birth
Year Congregation Organized or Founded
and growth, followed
3Context and Composition
in Figure 3, growth is most likely among Black congregations are growing and only
congregations organized since 1995. New 18% of Anglo churches are growing.
organizations of all types tend to be more
focused on establishing themselves as viable Although predominantly Black congregations
institutions and are able to incorporate new (which make up 5% of all Episcopal
people more easily than older organizations. congregations) have some characteristics
Clearly, however, the early growth that comes which might suggest greater growth
easily does not last forever, or even much possibilities (more lively worship; clearer
past 15 years in most cases. Churches purpose), they also tend to be older than
formed prior to 1900 are least likely to grow, Anglo churches (in terms of origin and
but the differences in growth possibilities do members) and are less engaged in
not vary a great deal by founding date among evangelism and recruitment, on average.
older congregations. There are not enough Latino, Asian, Native
Despite the tendency of new congregations to American and multi-racial/ethnic churches in
grow, the impact of these congregations on the survey sample to separate them out, but
the level of attendance in the Episcopal as a group, their growth profile is much more
Church is relatively small—simply because positive than Anglo or Black congregations.
there are so few of them. The same is true for Additional data from the Parochial Report
churches in newer suburbs (many of which indicates that growth is most likely among
are new or relatively new). There are Latino, Asian and multi-racial/ethnic churches.
relatively few of them as well. Among the These churches tend to be newer, have
three contextual factors addressed thus far, younger members, more lively worship and
the most pervasive, independent effect on are more engaged in evangelism and
growth and decline is provided by region. recruitment.
Much like other mainline
denominations in the United
Figure 4. Race, Ethnicity and Growth
States, the vast majority of
50%
Episcopal congregations are
Percent of congregations growing
43%
predominantly white (non-
Hispanic/Latino) or “Anglo” 40%
(86%). And as is also the
case in all mainline 30%
denominations, pre-
dominantly white churches
20% 18% 17%
are less likely to grow and
more likely to decline. In the
Episcopal Church, unlike 10%
most other mainline
denominations, the growth
0%
profile of predominantly White Black Asian, Hispanic,
Black congregations Native American or
resembles Anglo Multi-Racial
congregations. Only 17% of Predominant Racial/Ethnic Group in Congregation
4Context and Composition
denominations and most
Figure 5. Age Structure of the USA Jewish groups.
and The Episcopal Church: 2014
35% Figure 5 shows that 31%
USA 31% of Episcopal church
30% TEC members are age 65 and
26%
24% older, as compared to
25%
21% only 14% of the American
20% 19% 20%
20% public. By contrast, 26%
16% of Americans are age 19
14%
15%
or younger, as compared
10%
10% to only 16% of
Episcopalians.
5%
Of course, not all
0%
children & young adults median adults middle age seniors (65+)
Episcopal churches are
youth (20-34) (35-49) (50-64) primarily composed of
Age Group older persons. But many
churches skew toward an
Episcopal Church members are older on
older age profile. Overall, one quarter of
average than the American public. The
Episcopal congregations have a membership
differences are greatest among the oldest and
that is 50% or more elderly (age 65+). And in
youngest age categories. Proportionately, we
almost three quarters of Episcopal
have many more persons age 65 or older and
congregations over half of the membership is
many fewer children, youth and young adults
age 50 or over.
than the general population. This is due, in
part, to the cumulative effects of a low birth The larger the proportion of older people in
rate following the baby boom era among a the church, the less likely is the church to
highly educated,
predominantly white Figure 6. Aging Congregations Don't Grow
constituency. But the
80%
Episcopal Church has
68%
Percent of congregations
also failed to retain 70%
many of the children 60%
of its members over
50% 47%
the years. These 43%
trends are not 40%
exclusive to the 30%
30%
23%
Episcopal Church, or 20% 20%
20%
to mainline Protestant
10% 8%
denominations, but
they are more 0%
extreme among 35% or less 36-50% 51-75% 76% or more
mainline, Percent of Members who are 50 Years Old or Older
predominantly white,
highly educated Congregations Growing Congregations Declining
5Context and Composition
grow and the more
likely is it to decline Figure 7. Young Adults, Children, Youth and
(see Figure 6). Growth
Among Episcopal 45%
churches where
40%
over three quarters 37%
Percent of congregations growing
of members are age 35%
50 or older, 68%
are declining and 30%
26%
only 8% are
25%
growing. Growth is
much more 20%
20%
prevalent among
Episcopal churches 15%
where the 10%
10%
proportion of those
ages 50 and up is 5%
35% or less of
membership. The 0%
“tipping point” in 10% or less 11-20% 21-35% 36% or more
terms of likelihood Percent of Regular Participants who are Age 34 or Younger
of decline seems to
be where over half If larger proportions of older adults lead to
of members are 50 years old or older. growth problems, larger proportions of
Decline or plateau is the norm among younger adults lead to growth opportunities.
churches with predominantly older (age 50+) The congregation that is able to attract
members. younger adults is somewhat exceptional. To
The presence of older adults (age 50 or older) be sure, such churches are most often found
is not problematic in and of itself. Healthy in the newer suburbs and are thus able to
congregations include a wide range of ages. reach that increasingly elusive commodity in
But a congregation where most of the American society: married couples with
members are older tends to have a cluster of children in the home. Yet the fact that such
characteristics that inhibit growth. Not only congregations are also able to reach younger
are few, if any, children being born to adults in general—people who are less
members, but such congregations often lack frequent attendees—implies that they have
a clear sense of mission and purpose, vibrant qualities that go beyond an advantageous
worship and involvement in recruitment and location. They tend to be more exciting,
evangelism. They are also more likely to be innovative and are more involved in
small and to be located in rural areas and recruitment. They want to reach people and
smaller towns. make the effort to do so.
6Identity and Orientation
It is well known that most
conservative, evangelical Figure 8. Why Conservative Churches are
and sectarian religious
Growing?
bodies have been
growing (until recently in 45%
Percent of congregations growing
some cases) and 40%
mainline denominations 34%
35%
have been in decline
since the mid-1960s. 30%
The Episcopal Church 25% 22% 22%
was something of a
20%
mainline anomaly from 15%
the early 1990s through 15%
2001 when consistent 10% 8%
growth in average
5%
Sunday worship
attendance was 0%
recorded. After 2001, Very Somewhat Moderate Somewhat Very Liberal
conservative Conservative Liberal or or
however, membership Progressive Progressive
and attendance decline
returned to the Episcopal Theological Outlook of Most Active Members
Church. The continuing
disparity in growth between mainline and (particularly those that are “somewhat
most conservative evangelical denominations conservative”); whereas the most liberal
reinforces the widely held view that churches are most likely to grow and least
theological differences are the key to likely to decline. It should be added that this
understanding why so many mainline is not one of the strongest relationships with
churches are declining and why so many growth—as can be seen in the relatively small
evangelical churches are growing. But the differences between several categories in
facts are not quite so simple. terms of percent growing. Nevertheless, the
correlation is significant and may also seem
Within conservative evangelical counter-intuitive.
denominations, the minority moderate and
somewhat liberal churches are actually more Not surprisingly, there are proportionately
likely to grow than very conservative more conservative Episcopal churches in the
congregations. Among most mainline South and proportionately more liberal
denominations there is a “curvilinear” churches in the Northeast. And it is in these
relationship between conservatism and two regions where the relationship between
church growth; with more conservative and theological liberalism and growth is the
more liberal churches growing and moderate strongest. In the South, for instance, 39% of
churches most likely to decline. Interestingly, the most liberal churches are growing and
the Episcopal pattern in 2014 is more similar 17% are declining, whereas only 14% of the
to the conservative evangelical pattern. As most conservative churches are growing and
shown in Figure 8, conservative Episcopal 52% are declining. In the West, growth is
congregations are least likely to grow almost non-existent among the relatively few
7Identity and Orientation
churches where members
are more conservative. Figure 9. Purpose-Driven Growth
45%
Percent of congregations growing
Much more important to
the growth profile of a 40%
35%
congregation are the 35%
religious character of the 30%
congregation and its
25%
sense of mission and
20% 18%
purpose. Churches that
are clear about why they 15% 12%
exist and what they should 10% 8%
be doing are most likely to 5%
be growing congregations.
0%
They do not grow because Disagree Unsure Agree Strongly Agree
they have been at their
location for a century or "Our Congregation Has a Clear Mission and Purpose"
two nor because they
Without a clear purpose, congregations often
have an attractive building where they
resemble inward-looking clubs or clans where
worship. They grow because they
fellowship among friends is the primary
understand their reason for being and make
reason for being. The strong correlation
sure they do the things well that are essential
between growth and having a clear mission
to their lives as communities of faith.
and purpose is seen in Figure 9. Growth is
very unlikely if a church has
no definable purpose (other
Figure 10. Spiritual Vitality and Growth than existing) or if it takes its
45% purpose for granted. The
nature of purpose will vary
40%
Percent of congregations growing
36% among churches, of course,
35% but the key is to have one.
30% Essential to all churches as
worshipping religious
25%
communities is a sense of
20% spiritual life, rather than
16% simply human relationships
15% and organizational/ritual
activity. So in Figure 10 we
10% 7%
7% look at the extent to which a
5% congregation is considered to
be “spiritually vital and alive.”
0% Relatively few churches
Disagree Unsure Agree Strongly Agree
disagree with such a
designation and no
"Our Congregation is Spiritually Vital and Alive" congregation strongly
8Identity and Orientation
disagrees that they are spiritually vital and basic aspect of Christian practice: “living out
alive, but many are unsure or agree only one’s faith in their daily life,” those
somewhat. This question gets at the essential congregations where the emphasis was
character of a congregation and, as such, it is lacking or only marginal were very likely to be
highly related to growth and decline. in decline. Over 60% of the churches that
said they had some, a little or no emphasis on
Although the vast majority of congregations living out one’s faith in daily life were in
agree that they are spiritually vital, there is a decline. Having such a basic emphasis did
large difference with respect to growth on not guarantee growth, but lacking it nearly
whether they strongly agree or simply agree. guaranteed decline or plateau.
As with many areas of church life,
congregational leaders are not particularly Congregations are living communities and are
likely to downgrade their own congregation, constantly in flux. Any sense of constancy is
so frequently the key to understanding what is an illusion or the result of a desire to keep
going on with respect to vitality is the degree things from changing. But change is inevitable
to which a congregation rates themselves as towns and neighborhoods change and as
highly. people join, become more active, give birth,
become less active, drop
out, move away or die.
Figure 11. Living Out One's Faith and Vital organizations are
Growth/Decline those that adapt and
80% adaptation requires
69%
70% purposeful change rather
62% than drift.
Percent of congregations
60%
Figure 12 shows that
50% 46%
congregations that are
40% willing to change to meet
34%
new challenges also tend
30% 26% to be growing
18% congregations. Most
20% 16%
congregations believe that
8% they are willing to change,
10%
which is somewhat
0% surprising given the
Not at all or a Some Quite a bit A lot
little obvious resistance to
Emphasis on Living Out One's Faith in Daily Life
change in churches across
America. But among the
Growing Congregations Declining Congregations minority of Episcopal
congregations that doubt
Since so many Episcopal churches are
their ability to change, growth is very unlikely.
declining, for some survey questions the
Only 7% of congregations that are unwilling to
association with change in average Sunday
change and 11% of congregations that were
attendance is more a matter of what churches
unsure experienced growth in worship
are not rather than what they are. Thus,
attendance.
when asked about their emphasis on a rather
9Identity and Orientation
declined in worship
Figure 12. Living Things Change attendance over the past four
45% years.
Percent of congregations growing
40% Figure 13 looks at the impact
36%
of various degrees of conflict
35%
on attendance decline.
30% Congregations were asked
about seven areas over
25%
22% which conflict sometimes
20% occurs: finances, how
15% worship is conducted,
11% priorities of the congregation,
10% 7% the priest’s leadership style,
5% decisions of the vestry (or
Bishop’s committee),
0% disagreements between the
Disagree Unsure Agree Strongly
Agree
priest and lay leaders,
actions of General
"Our Congregation is Willing to Change to Meet New
Challenges" Convention, and other areas
of conflict (which could be
Congregations are social groups and one written-in). Responses for each area of
thing that all social groups (families, conflict were “no,” “the conflict was not
friendship networks, clubs, companies, etc.) serious,” and “it was a serious conflict.” In
have in common is the possibility for internal addition, respondents could indicate
conflict. Members disagree with specific outcomes of the conflict in terms of people
decisions that were made or
with the direction of the Figure 13: Conflict and Decline
organization. Sometimes 70%
Percent of congregations declining
people become angry, argue, 62%
59%
fight, hold grudges, stop 60%
52%
attending or withhold
50%
contributions. Some conflicts
39%
are minor and represent 40% 35%
differing opinions or
displeasure with some aspect 30%
of church life, but other 20%
conflicts are serious fights that
are unpleasant for all and 10%
create a situation in which
0%
some people leave and No conflict Minor One area 2-3 areas 4 or more
visitors are unlikely to join. conflict of serious of serious areas of
Congregations that have conflict conflict serious
experienced serious conflict conflict
are more likely to have Conflict in Congregation in Past Four Years
10Identity and Orientation
leaving the church or withholding donations. Conflict over finances was the most frequently
The latter two outcomes were typically mentioned area of conflict, but most of the
associated with serious conflict. conflict in this area was minor. The priest’s
leadership style was the most frequently
In prior surveys dealing with conflict in mentioned area of serious conflict and it was
Episcopal congregations, the issue of one of three areas of conflict most strongly
ordaining gay or lesbian priests or Bishops associated with decline in worship
was raised. In 2005 and in 2008 this was the attendance, along with how worship is
most frequently cited source of conflict, by far. conducted and actions of General
Since 2008, however, lingering conflict over Convention.
this issue has become less frequent and less
salient for congregations. So in 2014, a more Many other areas of conflict were described
generic reference to “actions of General by churches in addition to those offered as
Convention” was used. options. The most frequently stated were
about the following: sexual orientation (same-
Not surprisingly, congregations with no sex blessings or same-sex marriage, hiring a
conflict (23% of Episcopal congregations) gay priest), staff conflict, and important
were least likely to be in decline. Decline was decisions about the continuing life of the
also not pervasive among the 39% of parish (such as merging the congregation
Episcopal congregations with only minor with another, moving the place of worship, or
conflict. However, among churches with a building project).
serious conflict, more than half were in
decline. And if a congregation had more than Serious conflict remains a strong independent
one area of serious conflict, decline was even source of decline and impediment to growth,
more likely. but as will be seen in the final section of this
report, it is no longer the strongest factor
associated with growth or decline.
11The Character of Worship
Worship is the central event in the life of percentage with four or more services is
Christian congregations. The community smaller.
gathers, they hear scripture read and homilies
preached, pass the peace, participate in the In general, the more worship services a
Eucharist, sing, pray, and engage in other congregation has, the more likely it is to have
worship-related activities. There is variation grown. Only 15% of churches with one
within and among denominations and faith Sunday service grew between 2009 and
traditions in the manner, style and frequency 2013, as compared to 38% of congregations
in which these elements take place, but for with four or more services. Since very few
the most part there is less variation among churches have four or more services and the
Episcopal congregations than in most other vast majority of Episcopal congregations have
religious bodies. one or two services, the key finding here is
that churches with only one service are very
unlikely to grow, but churches
Figure 14. Worship Services and with two or more services are
Growth more likely to experience
45%
Percent of congregations growing
growth.
40% 38%
35%
A stronger relationship
between services and
30% attendance growth deals with
26%
25% 23% the type of services a
20% congregation has, in addition
15% to simply its number of
15%
services. As shown in Figure
10% 15, churches that have
5% Morning Prayer on Sunday, a
combination of Morning Prayer
0%
1 (or fewer) 2 3 4+ and Rite I or Rite II, or only
Rite I, are very unlikely to have
Regular Worship Services on a Typical Weekend
experienced any growth (only
If weekday services are excluded, most 6%) and most are declining in
Episcopal congregations hold either one worship attendance. Growth is a bit more
(45%) or two (38%) regular “Sunday” worship likely (but still infrequent) among churches
services, including services on Saturday that have a combination of Rite I and Rite II
evening. If a congregation holds its primary services. This includes churches with only
service on a weekday (this is very rare), that one service which alternates its rites weekly
service also is considered a “Sunday service.” and churches that have more than one
Only 13% of Episcopal congregations have Sunday service. The proportion of churches
three weekend worship services and another growing increases among Episcopal
3% have four or more. Episcopal congregations that have only Rite II services.
congregations differ from most other Again, these can be churches with any
Protestant denominations in that more number of services.
Episcopal congregations have at least two
Churches featured in the next two columns of
weekend worship services, but the
Figure 15 have at least one regular (weekly or
12The Character of Worship
Celebrate! (a liturgy for
Figure 15. Worship Service Types and young children and their
Growth/Decline parents), Messy Church
80% Family Eucharist,
Percent of Episcopal Congregations
69% 70% Family Table, Out of the
70%
Box, Welcome Table
60% (with discussion and
51% food), Pray and Play,
50% Summer Worker’s
44%
Service (Evening
40%
32% 32% Jamaican service for
30%
30% locals who work
19% Sunday morning), and
20% 15%
12% 13% “S6” (Super Speedy
10% 6% Summer Sunday
Service with Supper).
0% Churches with either
Morning Rite 1 and Only Rite 2 One non- Two or Non- one or two non-typical
Prayer or Rite 2 typical more non- English or
Only Rite 1 service typical Bilingual services are similar in
services service their growth profile, but
churches with two or
Regular Worship Services Held on a Typical Weekend
more non-typical
Growing churches Declining churches services are less likely
nearly weekly), non-typical service. The key to be declining (only
distinction here is that at least one regular 12%). Of course, some of the non-typical
service was “different” from the
typical Rite I or Rite II service. Figure 16. Vibrant & Engaging
Worship
In some cases these non- 40%
Percent of congregations growing
typical services were traditional
services such as compline, 35%
30%
evensong, Taizé, candlelight 30%
services with chant and 24%
25%
meditation, or “family oriented”
services followed by a meal. In 20%
other cases, the services were
15%
more “contemporary” or were
“imaginative” in some way. 10% 7%
8%
Many churches feature
5%
contemporary or blended
music. Other churches have a 0%
folk Eucharist, gospel Eucharist Not at all to Somewhat Quite well Very well
Slightly
or Jazz Vespers. Some
How well does "Vibrant and Engaging" describe your
churches also are featuring a worship service with the largest attendance?
“named” service, such as
13The Character of Worship
services may include the Rite II
liturgy. But these are not the
Figure 17. Drums, Percussion and
usual Rite II service. Something Growth
is added in terms of style, 60%
Percent of congregations growing
substance or a connection to a
meal or other event following the 50% 47%
service. 40%
40%
Even more likely to grow than
29%
congregations with either non- 30%
typical traditional, imaginative or
contemporary worship services 20% 17% 17%
were congregations that held
services in a language other 10%
than English—ether fully in
another language or a bilingual 0%
service. Most of these churches Never Seldom Sometimes Often Always
(70%) were growing and only How often are drums or other percussion
13% were declining. instruments a part of your congregation's worship
services?
In terms of the character of
worship in Episcopal American drums, timpani, tambourines, and
congregations, churches that describe their so forth. For Episcopal churches the use of
worship as “vibrant and engaging” were most drums, other percussion instruments and
likely to grow. This was also the case for acoustic instruments is more strongly related
churches that described their worship as “fun to growth than electric guitars and other
and joyful.” There is a sense of life in the instruments typically associated with
worship of growing churches that is less contemporary worship.
evident in most non-growing churches. Part
of this vitality may be related to a
Figure 18. Reverence and Lack of
critical mass of people creating a
sense of community celebration,
Growth
Percent of congregations growing
45%
but, of course, vibrant worship is
40% 36%
also possible in smaller churches.
35%
As was shown above in Figure 15, 30%
25%
growing churches tend to have at 25%
least one service that is non-typical. 19%
20% 17%
Partly this is about the use of music. 15%
Drums and other percussion
10%
instruments, for instance, are
5%
strongly related to growth. Drums
0%
do not necessarily imply a praise
Slightly to not Somewhat Quite well Very well
band with a drum set. But at all
sometimes it does. In other cases How well does "it is reverent" describe your
drums mean African or Native worship service with the largest attendance?
14The Character of Worship
The key seems to be doing something with a different character. Churches that have
different from very traditional worship with a added a different type of service or that
particularly solemn tone. For Episcopal changed an existing service “a lot” in the past
churches, characterizing worship as three years were much more likely to grow
than churches which did not
Figure 19. Changing Worship, Growing change their services or only
Congregations changed them somewhat.
Percent of congregations growing
40%
36%
34%
One of the more interesting
30% relationships with growth and
decline concerns the
21%
participation of children and
20% 18%
17% youth in worship. A question
was asked about how often
10% children or youth are engaged
in worship leadership roles,
including doing the readings,
0%
No change Changed a Changed Changed a Added a speaking, and music.
little moderately lot different Congregations that involved
type of children in worship leadership
service
roles (beyond the typical
During the past 3 years, has your congregation
changed the format or style of one or more weekend acolyte role) were more likely
worship services? to experience growth and
congregations that did not
“reverent” is related to decline, as is always or
were much more likely to experience decline.
nearly always using kneelers. It is not that
Involving children did not ensure growth. As
churches with vibrant, engaging worship lack
shown in Figure 20, only 28% of churches
any sense of reverence. But if being reverent
and all the word implies is
what characterizes worship Figure 20. Seen and Heard?
rather than vibrancy and 45%
Percent of congregations growing
joy, the result is not likely to 40%
be growth. Most Episcopal 35%
churches are not growing
30% 28% 27%
and most of the churches
that are not growing feature 25%
a basic Rite II service or 20% 18%
alternate between a basic 14%
15%
11%
Rite I and Rite II service. 10%
Having a non-typical, 5%
contemporary or 0%
imaginative service usually Never Seldom Sometimes Often Always
means that a church has How often do children or youth read or engage in other
changed its worship service worship leadership activities during your congregation's
worship services?
or added a new service
15The Character of Worship
that “often” involve children and 27% of those Controlling for the proportion of children in the
which “always” involve children in worship congregation reduces the strength of the
were growing. But among churches that relationship with growth somewhat, but it
never involve children, only 11% were does not disappear. In fact, it actually
growing and 74% were declining. Of course, becomes stronger among churches with
in order to involve children and youth in some, but not many, children. Churches with
worship a congregation must have children a lot of children tend to involve them in
present—and some congregations have few, worship as a matter of course. But among
if any children. churches with a smaller number of children,
their level of involvement in worship is
strongly associated with growth.
16Program and Recruitment
A coffee hour follows worship services in the St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, in Montclair,
vast majority of Episcopal congregations New Jersey the coffee hour featured all sorts
(93%). In many churches the coffee hour of food and drink. There was ham on
features drinks (including coffee, of course), biscuits, homemade cookies and brownies,
light snacks and casual conversation among quiches, cider, punch, etc. It was quite a
members. If a church has visitors who find spread, prepared by different teams each
their way to the coffee hour, they sometimes week. Essentially it was an after-church
brunch with coffee and
Figure 21. Coffee Hour Community dessert. With food placed on
35% tables in the center of the
Percent of congregations growing
30% room, people gathered at
30%
27% round tables surrounding the
25% food to eat and talk.
Children were running
20% around somewhat wildly.
Visitors were drawn into the
15% chaos, sitting at the crowded
10%
9% tables with newer and older
7%
members and with some
5% members who were on the
lookout for visitors. It was
0% impossible to be ignored in
No coffee hour A typical or a Vibrant coffee Chaotic coffee
the setting and no one was.
formal coffee hour hour
hour In this church and in many
others that do something
Describe your coffee hour
similar, the coffee hour
feel awkward, as if they are attending a party creates community and provides an initial
without knowing anyone. To visitors, the entry for visitors into the life of the
gathering may seem stilted and formal, but to congregation.
members it is not. Churches that do not have
a coffee hour at all tend to be declining rather So, although “chaotic” sounds bad and
than growing, as do churches that describe somewhat non-Episcopalian, 24% of
their coffee hour as “typical” or “formal.” Episcopal congregations described their
coffee hours as “chaotic” and these
In studying vital, growing Episcopal congregations were more likely to be growing
congregations it was observed that many had and less likely to be declining than any other
a coffee hour that was much different from the type of congregation.
average congregation (in any denomination).
Rather than sedate clusters of members Although it may seem mundane, a vitalized
standing around or sitting at tables drinking coffee hour is a tangible thing that a
coffee for a few minutes, these churches had congregation can do that helps it develop a
lively conversation that drew in newcomers. sense of community and draws new people
They were vibrant rather than stilted into it.
situations. In some rapidly growing
congregations the coffee hour was almost Attracting and incorporating new members
chaotic, but in a good way. For instance, at requires desire and intentionality, but it also
17Program and Recruitment
requires action and the involvement of life of the church is a matter of making
existing members. Recruitment success contact. This begins at worship in the
results not just from official programs and character of the welcome people receive.
events, but from the behavior of members Some churches have members assigned to
greet people, and the greeting
Figure 22. Recruiting New Members can be warm and genuine or it
Percent of congregations growing
45% can be perfunctory. Most
39% 40% churches ask newcomers to fill
40%
out a card and put it in the
35%
offering plate, but sometimes
30%
newcomers find the cards
25% 21% missing or there is no
20% meaningful follow-up later in the
15% week.
10%
10% 8%
Making contact is also not just
5%
about those who attend worship
0% services. Many congregations
Not at all A little Some Quite a bit A lot
also make sure they collect the
"To what extent are your congregation's members
names, mailing or email
involved in recruiting new members?"
addresses of persons who
who promote the congregation and invite attend special events or support groups or
others to attend worship and other events. As visit their web site. In order for people to
many studies have shown, the primary way know the congregation cares about their
people first connect with a congregation is presence, the congregation must know that
through a pre-existing relationship with they attended and make an effort to contact
someone who is already involved. them—through several reinforcing ways.
Figure 22 shows the very
strong relationship between Figure 23. Letting Them Know You Care
Percent of congregations growing
recruitment activity on the 45%
part of members and 40%
35% 33%
growth. Where members
29%
are involved “quite a bit” or 30%
“a lot,” growth is quite likely. 25%
By contrast, for 19%
20% 16%
congregations where 15%
members are involved only
10%
“some,” “a little” or “not at 4%
5%
all,” very few congregations
0%
are growing and many are
No visitors Minimal Some efforts Warm Warm
declining. or no efforts efforts to to contact greeting and greeting and
to contact contact visitors some effort multiple
For the most part, reaching visitors to contact efforts to
newcomers and contact
incorporating them into the Character of greeting and follow-up with visitors
18Program and Recruitment
Congregations which say they have no Typically, these traditional approaches were
visitors or make no effort to contact the either not very effective, costly, or both. A
visitors that they have are highly unlikely to little over ten years ago many churches
experience any growth. As seen in Figure 23, began to set up web sites for their
churches that expend some or minimal effort congregations and to collect email addresses
to contact visitors, but
that do not go out of Figure 24. Technology, Social Media and
their way to greet Growth
them warmly in the
45%
worship service are
more likely to grow 40%
Percent of congregations growing
36%
than churches which
do nothing. In most 35%
cases, these visitors 30%
are welcomed during
announcements, 25% 23%
asked to fill out a 19%
20%
card, and receive a
15%
note, call or follow-up 15% 12%
email within the next
week or two. 10% 7%
5%
A much stronger
association with 0%
growth can be found None or 2 3 4 5 6+
among churches that only 1
greet people warmly Number of Newer Technologies Used by Congregation
and individually
for their members. In 2005 when a similar
before or during worship and that also make
survey was conducted, simply having a
one or more efforts to contact the visitor after
church web site was strongly related to
the service. The more types of contact a
growth—because it created a 24-hour portal
church uses to reinforce the greeting, the
into the church which allowed for greater
more likely it is to grow.
communication with members and a more
It is important for a church to communicate visible presence for non-members who may
with its visitors. It is also important that a have been either looking for a church or
church communicate with its members, wanted to check out a church before they
regular participants and potential members in attended.
the community. For contacting members,
In 2015, simply having a website is not rare or
there were once only printed newsletters and
cutting-edge. The vast majority of
bulletins, calling trees, and announcements
congregations have web sites and for this
during worship. To reach out to potential
reason the relationship between simply
members in the community, many churches
having a site and growth is not very strong.
relied on mass mailing, flyers, newspaper ads
Now, the issue is whether the web site is
and even radio and television spots.
regularly updated and whether more active
19Program and Recruitment
means of electronic communication are used. Although nearly all Episcopal congregations
The effect of technology for communication is see themselves as friendly and welcoming to
cumulative. The more things are done by a newcomers and as good at incorporating
church, the more it is likely to grow. Figure 24 newcomers into the life of the church, the
shows that churches that use many kinds of actual process from a welcome, to
platforms (6 or more) are most likely to grow. engagement, to membership can be tricky
and not always
Figure 25. Special Events, Fellowship successful. Vital,
Activities and Growth growing Episcopal
congregations are
60%
Percent of congregations growing
strong, welcoming
50% 47% communities which
thrive through the
40% active involvement
of members and
30%
30% potential members.
25%
A central
19% component of
20%
community
10%
10% development is
4%
special events and
0% fellowship activities.
Never A few 5-10 a year Monthly More than At least And this is also true
monthly but weekly for small
less than
once a congregations that
week cannot afford to hire
speakers or hold
How many special events or fellowship activities were held in concerts.
the past year?
Congregations that
A growing church will have both an active rarely, if ever, hold
website and a related Facebook page. In special events or fellowships are not likely to
addition to listing services, staff, leadership, a grow and almost three quarters are declining.
calendar and special events, a visitor to the As shown in Figure 25, the more crowded is
site can see photos and videos of events, the special events and fellowship calendar,
stream the current service or watch a prior the more likely is a church to grow. For some
service or homily. There will be links to churches such activities are weekly events
newsletters and one can sign up for e- and 47% of these churches were growing and
newsletters and emails from the church. only one church in our sample experienced
While at church, you can access the Wi-Fi decline.
system and follow the order of service, with Special events and fellowships vary from truly
readings and songs, on your iPad, tablet or special, major events that may occur only
smartphone. There is no need to write out a once or annually, to more mundane, even
check and put it in an offering plate. Your traditional activities that occur more
pledge for the month is deposited frequently.
automatically.
20Program and Recruitment
St. Ann’s Episcopal Church in Windham, retreats, concerts. And for churches with a
Maine, just outside of Portland is a vital, rich, chaotic coffee hour, this event is a
growing church with a wide variety of special weekly fellowship opportunity in its own right.
events and fellowship activities, many of Through regular fellowship apart from
which are organized by the “Fun and greetings at Sunday worship, community is
Fellowship” committee.” These include a initiated, developed and reinforced. In vital
Potluck and Chili Challenge and Family Game growing churches, people do not come to
Night, a kayak/canoe summer cruise down worship and go home without personal
the river to “pray and play,” a Mardi Gras interaction with others.
celebration with a potluck and variety show, a
“Field Day and Fiesta Luncheon,” Christmas Growing churches emphasize Sunday school.
Caroling with holiday cheer, an annual potluck In Episcopal churches, Sunday school
with movie, and a church-wide excursion to typically involves the children and not all
see a local minor league baseball game (the Episcopal churches have a lot of children. So
Sea Dogs). In addition to these fellowship is the relationship between an emphasis on
events, the church holds a “family Sunday Sunday school and growth simply a result of
service” monthly with a heavy involvement of the proportion of children and youth in a
children in worship, followed by a meal. There church? The answer is “no.” There is a strong
is a Christmas fair, and to raise money for the correlation between an emphasis on Sunday
Christmas fair, wine tastings are held— school and growth even in churches with
becoming fellowship activities of their own. relatively few younger members. The
There is the typical Shrove Tuesday pancake strongest correlation between an emphasis
breakfast, a weekly “lunch and liturgy” on on Sunday school and growth is found for
Tuesdays and a monthly family breakfast on churches with a moderate proportion of
Sunday morning. Even outreach becomes a children and youth.
chance for
fellowship through Figure 26. Sunday School and Growth
the Monday Meals
program serving 45%
Percent of congregations growing
elderly and needy 40% 37%
persons in the 35%
community with food
30% 27%
and lively fellowship
with members and 25%
their children. St. 20% 18%
Ann’s is not a 15%
wealthy church and
10%
not too many years 4%
ago it was led by a 5%
part-time rector. 0%
Other churches with No Some emphasis A lot of A specialty of
a rich calendar of emphasis the congregation
events and
Sunday School and Emphasis on Sunday School
fellowships feature
lectures, workshops,
21Program and Recruitment
Almost all congregational programs are One of the strongest correlates of growth
related to growth to some degree. Be it comes from the emphasis a congregation
prayer and meditation groups, Bible studies, places on adult religious formation. For
parenting or marriage enrichment, pastoral churches where this activity is a specialty of
care, youth activities, young adult activities, the congregation, 36% are growing, as
outreach, community service, etc., churches compared to only 6% of churches which do
that do more are more likely to be growing. not have adult religious formation classes.
This is not just a matter of size, although Other strong correlates of growth include the
larger churches do have more activities and emphasis on Children’s activities (other than
programs. Still, the key factor seems to be Sunday school), youth activities and
whether or not a church puts a lot of programs, young adult activities and
emphasis on program areas, outreach, or programs, and parenting or marriage
other ministries beyond holding regular enrichment activities. Still, among these
worship services. various program activities, an emphasis on
Sunday school has the strongest independent
effect on the likelihood for growth.
22Leadership
Leadership is important to sustaining the have priest and worship is typically led by lay
health of a congregation. Historically, the leaders (some licensed) or deacons. Of the
norm was for a congregation to have a full- approximately 13% of Episcopal
time paid priest, and in slightly over half of congregations that only use supply priests, a
Episcopal congregations (56%) the traditional deacon or a worship leader, 79% experienced
model is still present. However, as the decline in worship attendance.
median attendance of Episcopal
congregations dropped and the costs of Decline was also widespread among
paying insurance and retirement benefits churches with a solo part-time priest. These
increased, more churches shifted to part-time churches included congregations that shared
clergy, or they rely on supply clergy or lay a full time priest (but who was part-time in
worship leaders. each of the congregations they served).
Decline was less likely in
Figure 27. Priest Status and Decline the “normative,” church
90% with a solo, full time, paid
Percent of congregations declining
79% priest. The growth/decline
80%
profile of these churches
70% was not as positive as
61%
60% churches with multiple
priests, but it was much
50%
better than churches with a
40% 37%
32% part-time priest or supply
30% 26% priests.
20% 14% Although it is increasingly
10% difficult for smaller
churches to support a solo
0%
Multiple Multiple Multiple Solo Full Solo Part Supply or full-time priest, a part-time
Full-Time Priests Part-Time Time Time Worship priest or supply priest is
Priests (Full and Priests Priest Priest Leader likely to lead to further
Part-Time)
decline.
Priest Status in Congregation
The median Episcopal
Not surprisingly, churches with multiple rector, vicar, dean or
priests were most likely to have grown and priest-in-charge (not counting interims, supply
least likely to have declined between 2009 priests, curates or associates) is 59 years of
and 2013. In terms of the percentage age. The age of a congregation’s priest is
growing, it did not matter if all priests were all strongly related to growth and decline.
full-time, a combination of full and part- time Churches with priests age 49 and younger
or even the rare situation where all priests are most likely to grow, followed by churches
were part-time. with priests age 50-59.
On the other side of the leadership spectrum The likelihood of growth decreases greatly
were churches that had no priest, other than a among older age cohorts of priests leading
supply priest. Some of these churches rarely congregations. Only 17% of churches with
23Leadership
were also declining. To a
Figure 28. Age of Priest and Growth certain extent, the decline
45% may be a result of
frequent clergy turnover in
Percent of congregations growing
40%
35% some congregations, but
34%
35% the effect of a recent call
30% 28% is so pervasive that it
speaks more to problems
25% in the period of
20% transition—from the
17%
resignation of a priest, the
15% 13% hiring of an interim (or a
10% 9% succession of supply
priests), the interim period
5%
(including the search), the
0% hiring of a new priest and
39 or 40-49 50-59 60-65 66-70 71 or the adjustment to a new
Younger Older
leadership situation. The
Age of Priest
transitional period tends to
be one of decline. Decline
priests age 60-65 are growing and the
becomes much less likely several years after
proportion growing is even lower among
the transition is made.
congregations led by priests in their late 60s
or in their 70s. Of course,
some of the older priests
Figure 29. Year Priest Called and Decline
are retired clergy that
serve congregations while 80%
receiving retirement
Percent of congregations declining
70%
benefits. But retirement 64%
status in and of itself is not 60%
strongly associated with 51%
serving a declining parish. 50%
The association is primarily 41% 40%
with age. 40%
34%
29%
Calling a new priest can 30%
be problematic for many
20%
congregations. The
majority of Episcopal 10%
congregations that called a
new priest (not an interim) 0%
in 2013 or in the first half of Earliest to 2000 to 2005 to 2008 to 2011 & 2013 &
2014 were declining and 1999 2004 2007 2010 2012 2014
slightly over half of
Year Priest Called
congregations that called a
priest in 2011 and 2012
24Leadership
Figure 30. Tenure of Current Priest and Growth/Decline
90%
80% Growing Congregations Declining Congregations
80%
70%
Percent of congregations
59% 58%
60%
50% 52%
50%
41%
39%
40% 35% 36%
34% 32%
27% 28% 29%
30%
23%
21%
20% 17% 16%
14%
11%
8% 9%
10%
0%
Supply Interim 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8-10 11 years
clergy or priest or less years or more
no priest Tenure of Current Priest
As seen earlier, decline is most likely when a churches in decline is lower among
congregation has no priest or only uses congregations with long-tenured clergy, but
supply clergy (including long-term supply the percentage growing is also quite low.
situations). Figure 30 shows that decline is That is because so many churches with long-
also widespread among churches with interim tenured priests are on stable plateaus—
priests and among churches where the new neither growing nor declining very much.
priest has been there one year or less. The
likelihood of growth
increases with tenure Figure 31. Not Generating Enthusiasm and
through four years. Decline
After four years of 70%
Percent of congregations declining
65%
tenure, fewer
60%
congregations are
growing and more are 50%
declining. In churches 43%
where the priest has 40%
led the congregation 31%
30%
for 11 years or more,
39% of congregations 20%
are declining and only
9% are growing. As 10%
compared to churches
with an interim or a 0%
Somewhat to not at all Describes quite well Describes very well
new priest, the
percentage of How well does "generate enthusiasm“ describe your priest?
25Leadership
worker,” “knows
Figure 32. Clear Vision and Growth/Decline how to get things
70% done,” and “is
65%
friendly and
60% 57% engaging.” The
Percent of congregations
lowest correlations
50%
with growth were
41%
found for “knows
40%
the Bible and
30% 31%
30% theology,” “cares
22% about people,”
20% “good
liturgist/worship
8% 9%
10% leader,” and “is a
person of deep
0% faith.” Lest one
Slightly or not at Describes Describes quite Describes very
all somewhat well well assume that it
doesn’t matter
How well does "has a clear vision for the congregation" whether or not a
describe your priest?
priest knows the
Bible or is a person
Growing Congregations Declining Congregations
of faith, such
Priests lead congregations in a variety of characteristics are
ways. Gifts vary, as does the focus of basic to being a priest and lack much
ministry and the ability to provide leadership. variation. Indeed, the four items with the
Unfortunately, it is not possible to create truly lowest correlation with growth were among
objective ratings of ministerial performance the characteristics that nearly all priests said
using a survey of this type. But a number of fit them “very well” or “quite well.” But the
subjective questions were asked that were characteristics that are most strongly
completed by either the priest or another correlated with growth are different. Not all
church leader. Although prone to self- priests are able to generate enthusiasm, get
depreciation or exaggeration, the fact that people to work together or have a clear vision
relatively strong correlations exist between for the congregation. Even fewer describe
the ratings and growth, suggests that they themselves as “charismatic leaders.” These
have some validity and that most priests are are leadership skills and many church leaders
answering the questions honestly. A large lack them or fail to use them. The ratings that
number of characteristics were tested. The were widespread among priests and that also
characteristics most strongly related to growth significantly related to growth were being an
and decline (in descending order of strength) “effective preacher,” and “is friendly and
were: “generates enthusiasm;” “has a clear engaging.” Only 5% of Episcopal parish
vision for the congregation;” “is a charismatic priests say that they are just “somewhat”
leader;” and “knows how to get people to friendly and engaging and 6% say that being
work together.” Lower, but still significant “an effective preacher” describes them
correlations with growth were found for “somewhat” or “slightly.”
“effective preacher,” “evangelistic,” “hard
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