New England Patriots - Football Outsiders

New England Patriots
 2019 Record: 12-4 Total DVOA: 30.8% (2nd) 2020 Mean Projection: 8.5 wins On the Clock (0-4): 7%
 Pythagorean Wins: 13.1 (2nd) Offense: 4.1% (11st) Postseason Odds: 54.8% Mediocrity (5-7): 28%
 Snap-Weighted Age: 28.6 (1st) Defense: -25.5% (1st) Super Bowl Odds: 7.5% Playoff Contender (8-10): 42%
 Average Opponent: -5.8% (32nd) Special Teams: 1.2% (11st) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.5% (21st) Super Bowl Contender (11+): 24%

 2019: The end of an era.

 2020: Superman swoops in to replace Tom Brady and save the Patriots.

N o amount of bidding farewell can do the Tom Brady era
 any justice. Six Super Bowl rings, 14 Pro Bowls (10 of
them in a row, at that), three MVPs, a host of NFL career
 son. Of those 17, only Mike McMahon of the 2002 Lions en-
 tered the year as the Week 1 starter after having started fewer
 than four games as a rookie. McMahon lost all four starts
records—everything there was to accomplish, Brady did it in before being benched in favor of Joey Harrington. Over the
his 20 years with the Patriots. He was the point man for the next four years, McMahon started just seven more games (all
dynasty to end all dynasties. Every quarterback for the rest of with the Eagles in 2005) before being pushed to the CFL. The
the sport’s lifespan will be chasing Brady. only other somewhat comparable player in recent memory is
 “Inevitable” is the only way to capture the Patriots’ suffocat- Trevor Siemian, who was a seventh-round pick in 2015 rather
ing run of dominance with Brady. Our projections have placed than a mid-rounder. The Broncos handed Siemian the keys to
the Patriots in the top five for total DVOA every season since be the Week 1 starter in 2016 when they quickly realized in
2007. In all but four of those seasons, the Patriots did indeed training camp that rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch was
finish in the top five for total DVOA, and they never once not going to be ready. Siemian is now an unsigned free agent
slipped outside of the top 10. We, both Football Outsiders and coming off a couple of years as a decent backup.
any halfway informed football fan, always expected the Pa- Yet true to form, Belichick waited until the final hour to
triots to be elite and they always were. In the years to come, make the savvy move that every non-Patriots fan feared. On
the Patriots may still be a force to reckon with and regular June 28, the slim chance of Newton stepping in for Brady be-
favorites to win the ever-troubled AFC East, but the looming came a reality. The former MVP signed a one-year, $1.75-mil-
feeling that the Patriots were inevitable goes as Brady goes. lion deal that could ramp up to nearly $8 million through a
 As the Patriots stumbled into their first Brady-less offsea- handful of incentives. Bringing in Newton at the $20 million
son in decades, the possibilities for the GOAT’s replacement price tag Teddy Bridgewater got from the Panthers would
seemed endless. Many expected the Patriots to pursue Andy have been a nice deal for the Patriots, but this? Less than $10
Dalton, who eventually signed with the Dallas Cowboys for million for a former MVP who was in top form when he was
$3 million, or trade for someone along the lines of Derek last healthy in 2018? Only Belichick could get away with such
Carr. Before Ryan Tannehill re-signed with the Titans, he was outrageous theft.
floated as an option to fill in for Brady. Even Jameis Winston A healthy Cam Newton changes what is possible for a post-
and Cam Newton, though both more aggressive than what Bill Brady future. Dalton, Carr, Winston, etc., are far from bad
Belichick prefers in a quarterback, were mentioned in discus- quarterbacks, but none have quite the same pedigree or ceil-
sions about possible Patriots starters. When none of that came ing as Newton. With Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa expected
to fruition by late April, the assumption was that they would to be drafted well before the Patriots got a shot at them, as
make a move on draft weekend. That option bore no action ei- they were, there was no clear star option in the draft, either.
ther. Through months of inaction, it seemed as though Belich- Newton was the only available quarterback with trajectory-
ick was handing his vote of confidence to 2019 fourth-round changing star power.
pick Jarrett Stidham. Aside from Newton’s general wealth of talent, it works in
 What a disaster that would have been. Assuming Stidham the Patriots’ favor that Newton’s most recent season of full
was going to be the starting quarterback, the Patriots offense play was a closer approximation to what he will be asked to do
was projected outside of the top 20 in DVOA, well below their in New England than any of his previous seasons were. From
norm. In addition to problems across the rest of the offense— 2011 to 2017, Newton played in offenses that emphasized
we’ll get to that in a moment—Stidham had unimpressive col- play-action, shot plays, and intermediate route combinations
lege metrics. There also isn’t much history of mid-round picks intended to target the area outside the numbers. Carolina’s
such as Stidham successfully starting in Year 2 despite having dropback passing game for much of Newton’s career revolved
no rookie starting experience. around deep drops in the pocket with little to no checkdown
 Since 2000, 17 players selected between the third and fifth or underneath options to speak of, instead leaving Newton to
round started more than four games in their second NFL sea- be his own checkdown as a runner. Yes, Newton himself had
 164

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 165

 2019 NE DVOA by Week
 2020 Patriots Schedule 100%
 Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

 60%
 1 MIA 7 SF 13 at LAC
 2 at SEA 8 at BUF 14 at LAR (Thu.) 40%
 3 LV 9 at NYJ (Mon.) 15 at MIA 20%
 4 at KC 10 BAL 16 BUF (Mon.)
 0%
 5 DEN 11 at HOU 17 NYJ
 6 BYE 12 ARI -20%

 -40%

 -60%

a characteristic handful of misfires each game. But Newton’s -80%

completion percentage and overall efficiency suffered more -100%

often than not because he was playing in aggressive offenses
with minimal wide receiver talent.
 The 2018 version of Newton and the Panthers passing of-
fense was a different beast. While shot plays and play-action 2016 Newton would have gotten. Rather, Belichick should be
were present, the passing offense shifted more towards decep- looking to use Newton as a runner almost exclusively in high-
tion via shifts and motion, spacing in the quick game, and leverage situations (short yardage, red zone, goal line, etc.)
trust in running back Christian McCaffrey to carry the burden instead of as a key feature for the offense at large.
of the offense as a heavily used checkdown option. Newton’s With all that Newton provides through both the air and
2018 average depth of target of 7.4 yards was down from his ground, it comes as no surprise that substituting him for
2016 and 2017 marks of 11.0 yards and 8.9 yards, respectively. Stidham dramatically changes the outlook for the Patriots of-
Save for the use of Newton’s legs, the overarching theme of fense. Having an offense geared towards Newton’s safety and
Carolina’s offense that year was not terribly different from the newfound passing identity is only part of the puzzle, though.
theme of some of New England’s offense with Brady. Many Newton will have to call on his experience in making up for
of New England’s recent offenses have leaned toward heavier middling skill talent from his Carolina days, which our pro-
personnel sets, whereas the Panthers did not have that luxury, jections expect him to do. Josh McDaniels remaining on staff
but a good chunk of the pass concepts and ideas were simi- to call plays will be a plus for Newton, but each position group
lar. So was the lingo, as Norv Turner comes from the same on offense needs questions answered.
Erhardt-Perkins offensive tree as Josh McDaniels. New England’s pass-catching corps has concerns all up and
 Carolina’s offensive renovations helped quell Newton’s re- down the depth chart. The healthy return of slot star Julian Edel-
curring issue of posting a low completion percentage. Even man is a welcomed boost, but he does not solve New England’s
with a shoulder injury slowing him down over the second half issues with wide receiver play on the outside. 2019 first-round
of 2018, Newton finished the year with a career-high 67.9% pick N’Keal Harry was woefully underwhelming for most of
completion rate. His previous high was 61.7% in 2013. In his rookie year. Jakobi Meyers surprised as an undrafted rookie
kind, Newton also finished with his career best in Completion contributor, but projecting him as more than a role player mov-
Percentage Over Expected. Newton’s MVP campaign netted ing forward is a hair optimistic. Trading for Mohammed Sanu
a lukewarm +0.4% completion rate over expected, followed midway through last year did not provide the results the team
by bottom-three finishes in 2016 and 2017. The +1.9% com- was looking for either, although an ankle injury is partly to
pletion rate over expected Newton posted in 2018 was good blame. Sanu is primarily a “big” slot receiver whose ideal route
for 13th in the league and tied with MVP Patrick Mahomes. tree somewhat overlaps with Edelman’s. If none of the non-
Through the first half of the season, before he hurt his shoul- Edelman receivers can step up, the unit will again be a speed-
der, Newton was in the top 10 of passing DVOA at 13.2%. deficient disaster, and even a positive outlook for the group still
This would also have been a career high. comes without any meaningful speed to threaten down the field
 This is all before delving into what Newton provides as a unless the Patriots coax a dramatic transformation out of New-
runner. Be it zone reads, counter reads, or run-pass options ton’s former Panthers teammate Damiere Byrd.
that involve a quarterback run, Newton can be the key that Despite all the resources thrown at tight end in this year’s
unlocks a part of the run game previously out of Belichick and draft, there is no telling if the Patriots have actually found a
McDaniels’ reach. Some experimentation with option football solution yet. Third-round selection Devin Asiasi (UCLA) fits
during Jacoby Brissett’s pair of starts in 2016 is all Belichick the mold of a “move” tight end the Patriots have been looking
has ever shown in terms of a quarterback-centric run game. for, while Dalton Keene (Virginia Tech), another third-round
That being said, Newton probably will not be the driving force selection, is a perfect Belichickian hybrid fullback/tight end,
for a run-heavy offense. Seeing as Newton’s health is a priori- but rookie tight ends rarely make a noticeable impact.
ty, especially coming off of last year’s foot injury, and Belich- Since 2000, just 13 tight ends have earned over 500 yards
ick is a thoughtful coach, it is more than likely that current receiving in their rookie season. Six of those 13 were top-50
Newton does not get the volume as a runner that, say, 2015 or picks, which neither Asiasi or Keene were. For further per-

166 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE

spective, 14 tight ends cleared 500 receiving yards just last Scarnecchia has been critical in helping the Patriots maintain
season, yet Denver’s Noah Fant was the only rookie to do so. top-class offensive line play for the past two decades without
Fant was not particularly efficient in getting there either. Den- having too many elite talents at his disposal. Scarnecchia has
ver’s first-round tight end finished just 28th in both DYAR and a gift for developing projects and getting the most out of play-
DVOA, putting him right around average among 47 qualifiers ers, which is often only evident once those players venture
at the position. Even the best tight end prospects are far from away from his guidance to play for other teams.
a guarantee to be average, let alone good, as rookies. Despite all these imperfections, Newton and the coaching
 Granted, with the Patriots’ leading receiver at tight end last staff should be enough to keep the offense in or close to the
season being 39-year-old Benjamin Watson and his 173 yards, NFL’s top 10, even if they don’t reach elite Kansas City terri-
there is more room for improvement on this team than most tory. Where our numbers break from the pack is in projecting
others, but rookie tight ends are still just that. Keene may be the Patriots defense. Many analysts still hold the Patriots de-
somewhat of an exception in that he is more of a blocker and fense in high regard for the upcoming season. Who can blame
chess piece anyway, so perhaps his value is never going to them for their optimism? The Patriots just pulled off one of
show in receiving numbers, but that only serves to drive home the most dominant defensive seasons in years right after a
the idea that this year’s young tight ends may not immediately 2018 postseason in which they nearly shut out the best offense
give the passing offense the help it needs. in the league in the Super Bowl. Losing a few starters in the
 Running back is the deepest position on the Patriots offense, front seven can’t be that bad, right?
but feel free to insert a typical Twitter argument about how Wrong. Perhaps in different circumstances losing a few
much running backs matter here. That’s before we get to Sony starters may not be catastrophic, but this particular group of
Michel’s chronic knee problems or his offseason foot surgery. names which the Patriots are losing is littered with top-tier
 For the offensive line, the biggest question is not person- players at their respective positions. The Patriots are hemor-
nel but rather coaching, because of the retirement of Dante rhaging one of the most valuable groups of defenders (per
Scarnecchia. Not many position coaches deserve a clear spot Approximate Value) in two decades without replacing them
in Canton, but not many have made the clear impact Scar has. with any notable veterans (Table 1). This is not your standard

Table 1. Biggest Net AV Over Replacement Loss on Defense, 2003-2020
 Net AV DVOA
 Team Year Rk DVOA Rk Change Players Added Players Lost
 Change Y-1
 J.Collins (12), K.Van Noy (10),
 NE 2020 -34 -25.5% 1 -- -- -- NONE
 D.Shelton (9), D.Harmon (2), E.Roberts (1)
 D.Brooks (8), G.Adams (6), P.Buchanon (5)
 TB 2009 -32 -10.7% 6 8.0% 25 18.6% NONE
 , K.Carter (5), J.Haye (4), C.June (4)
 C.J.Mosley (12), T.Suggs (7),
 BAL 2019 -27 -13.1% 3 -12.7% 4 0.4% E.Thomas (est. 7)*
 B.Urban (6), E.Weddle (6), Z.Smith (3)
 B.Scott (7), L.Landry (5), Y.Bell (4),
 NYJ 2013 -24 -4.2% 9 -5.6% 12 -1.3% D.Landry (3)
 S.Pouha (4), B.Thomas (4), M.Devito (3)
 J.Peppers (12), D.Lewis (5),
 CAR 2010 -23 -12.8% 6 -1.1% 16 11.7% NONE
 C.Harris (4), N.Diggs (2)
 M.Coleman (4), H.Douglas (14), S.Barber (8),
 PHI 2003 -20 -11.2% 4 3.0% 17 14.2%
 N.Wayne (6) L.Kirkland (6), B.Bishop (2)
 J.Smith (5), P.Cox (4), C.Culliver (4),
 SF 2015 -20 -10.1% 5 9.9% 27 20.0% S.Wright (2)
 R.McDonald (4), C.Borland (3), D.Skuta (2)
 A.Bethea (3), C.Campbell (13), K.Minter (5),
 ARI 2017 -19 -13.6% 3 -12.7% 4 0.9%
 K.Dansby (2), J.Jones (2) M.Cooper (3), T.Jefferson (3), D.J.Swearinger (2)
 K.Lucas (6), M.Kemoeatu W.Witherspoon (7), B.Buckner (6), K.Lucas (6),
 CAR 2006 -18 -14.2% 2 -10.9% 4 3.3%
 (5), R.Howard (1) M.McCree (5), B.Short (5), R.Manning (1)
 J.Norman (12), J.Allen (3),
 CAR 2016 -17 -18.4% 2 -5.3% 10 13.1% P.Soliai (2)
 R.Harper (3), C.Tillman (1)
 D.Freeney (3), Q.Jammer (5), S.Phillips (5), T.Spikes (4), A.Cason (3),
 SD 2013 -17 2.0% 18 17.5% 32 15.5%
 D.Cox (2) V.Martin (2), A.Bigby (1), A.Franklin (1), D.Williams (1)
 K.Coleman (5), A.Elam (4), M.Roth (4),
 CLE 2011 -17 1.7% 18 4.2% 22 2.6% D.Patterson (1)
 E.Barton (3), D.Bowens (1), E.Wright (1)
 E.Holmes (5), D.Hambrick (4),
 CLE 2003 -17 -5.1% 10 -1.9% 14 3.2% NONE
 D.Rudd (4), D.Bush (2), C.Fuller (2)
 AVERAGE (except NE) -9.1% 7.2 -0.6% 15.6 8.5%
*Thomas had only 2 AV in 2018 due to injury; for our projections, we estimated him at 10 AV to match what he earned in his last two full seasons.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 167

offseason turnover of talent. Barring some surprises, New to look like that second half of last season than the first half.
England’s defensive front is going to take a major step back. The Patriots secondary will no longer have the luxury of a
 Inside linebacker Jamie Collins and outside linebacker Kyle league-best pressure rate. While there is some argument to be
Van Noy are the Patriots’ two most valuable losses, as well made that New England’s secondary aided the pass rush more
as the two players least likely to have their roles filled to the than the pass rush aided the secondary, the Patriots are los-
fullest right away. As awkward as Collins’ stint in Cleveland ing their most productive pass-rusher by far in Van Noy. Even
was before his return to New England last season, Collins was under the assumption that the Patriots secondary can boost the
a monster in his one year back under Belichick’s guidance. In pass rush again, the pass rush will certainly take a hit without
addition to being an excellent coverage piece, a good chunk of its most productive member returning.
Collins’ prowess is rooted in his “educated guessing” as a gap Additionally, New England’s defense will no longer have
shooter against the run. Precious few linebackers in the NFL the ever-steady insurance policy of Brady on the other side
have the downhill speed, side-to-side coordination, and in- of the ball. Brady and the offense were not the helping hand
stant trigger that Collins does. Every now and again, Collins’ last year they had been for the previous two decades, but they
gambling looks foolish, but it worked like a charm for most rarely turned the ball over and forced their own defense into
of last year and was devastating for opposing offenses when bad spots. In turn, the Patriots’ defense had the most favor-
it did. Through limited action early in his career, Ja’Whaun able field position in the league. Maybe that is a self-fulfilling
Bentley, a 2018 fifth-round pick assumed to take over for Col- prophecy considering the Patriots defense also set up the of-
lins, has played with nowhere near the same proficiency in fense with the league’s best field position, but since we can
that area. None of the Patriots’ late-round picks or UDFAs at tie that in part to the amount of turnovers the Patriots defense
the position look to be up to par either. produced, that should take a step back as the turnover rate
 Van Noy’s vacancy presents a similar predicament, al- does.
beit with better rookie resources thrown at it. Though Van There are two reasons the Patriots may yet fight off regres-
Noy himself was a low-cost project some years ago, he was sion and still field a top-10 defensive unit in 2020. Relying
groomed into a do-it-all weapon on the perimeter. Van Noy on Belichick’s track record and ingenuity is an obvious part
could attack the outside, move around the line as a twist/stunt of the equation, but the other is that the Patriots have an un-
piece, set the edge in run defense, and occasionally drop back matched pool of cornerback talent with effectively zero per-
into coverage (though that happened less and less with each sonnel turnover from last season. The team’s top four corner-
passing season in New England). Even if there are players bet- backs are all returning to the lineup, while 2019 second-round
ter than him in each individual area, not many edge defenders pick Joejuan Williams now has the experience under his belt
can wear as many hats as he did in New England and perform to potentially step into a bigger role. New England’s third and
at a high level. Belichick threw a pair of Day 2 draft picks at fourth cornerbacks, Jonathan Jones and J.C. Jackson, would
the position on players who fit the role (Michigan’s Josh Uche be better than all but a handful of teams’ starters at the posi-
and Alabama’s Anfernee Jennings), but assuming rookies can tion. Belichick would prefer to lean toward man coverages
perform in Belichick’s intricate defense as though Van Noy with any reasonably talented cornerback group, but the fact
never left is generous. that he has four cornerbacks who excel in man coverage—five
 The firestorm of regression goes beyond just losing a few if Williams develops—is a cheat code.
key players, though. The Patriots are also running up against In part because of the cornerbacks’ raw talent and free safety
massive turnover regression—a burden that weighs on most
defenses which seemingly fall from excellent to ordinary in Table 2. Interception Per
the blink of an eye. More specifically, interception regression
and, in turn, coverage regression are breathing down Belich- Drive Leaders, 2008-2019
ick’s neck headed into the new season.
 Regular Football Outsiders readers may recognize Table 2 Team Year Int/Drive
 Int/Dr Int/Dr Rank
 over Avg Y+1 Y+1
as the interception regression chart from last year’s Chicago
Bears chapter, now with the Bears’ and Patriots’ figures from CLE 2008 14.0% 5.8% 5.5% 29
2019 tacked on. The Bears, as expected, saw their intercep- GB 2009 16.3% 7.3% 13.2% 2
tion rate dramatically fall. Sustaining league-high interception NE 2010 14.3% 5.6% 13.1% 2
rates just is not realistic. One can hope the Patriots follow in GB 2011 17.4% 8.8% 9.8% 9
the footsteps of other all-time great secondaries such as the CHI 2012 12.5% 4.4% 11.0% 4
Legion of Boom and Denver’s No Fly Zone, but even if we SEA 2013 15.6% 7.2% 7.9% 18
assume the Patriots’ secondary is as talented and cohesive as SF 2014 13.5% 5.6% 5.1% 27
those units, it is no guarantee that they will continue pick- CAR 2015 12.4% 4.8% 9.1% 7
ing off passes at an ungodly rate, especially considering how KC 2016 10.3% 3.0% 9.2% 10
much weaker New England’s front is about to be. In fact, some BAL 2017 11.6% 4.1% 6.9% 20
of that regression already hit during last season. The Patriots CHI 2018 14.8% 7.3% 5.7% 27
picked off 19 passes in the first eight games compared to just NE 2019 13.4% 6.0% -- --
six over the final eight games. The 2020 season is more likely AVERAGE 13.9% 5.8% 8.8% 14.1

168 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE

Devin McCourty’s exceptional football IQ, Belichick can vig- our statistical projections are overstating just how much this
orously drill the importance of divider leverage into his cor- defense is coming back to earth. But while Belichick should
nerbacks’ technique. In short, divider leverage is the idea that be the one coach capable of avoiding complete disaster, a fall
there is an invisible line on the field (around the painted num- from grace to some degree is nearly inescapable.
bers, though it changes slightly depending on where the ball In large part because of the addition of Newton, the Patriots
is snapped). Versus inside stems and routes, the cornerback are now aiming to maintain a happy middle ground between
plays outside leverage to help funnel throws toward the cen- the dominant days of old and the potential disaster that could
terfielding safety. Conersely, outside stems and routes force have followed Brady’s departure. The defense’s projected step
the cornerback to play inside leverage and go one-on-one back and an offense no longer being expected to be elite com-
while using the boundary as help rather than the deep safety, bine to knock the Patriots off their pedestal atop the NFL, but
allowing the safety to help elsewhere and shift the numbers their AFC East crown is still waiting for them. Their path to
advantage. Divider leverage is certainly not a Belichick ex- winning the division just may not look as convincing as it usu-
clusive. Every defense makes use of it. No defense is better ally does. Instead of the standard 12- to 14-win stranglehold,
at executing it properly right now, though. Since there is such the Patriots may only squeak out the division title with 10
little turnover in the Patriots secondary and five of the team’s wins. Not since 2009, Brady’s first year back from his ACL
top six defensive backs have been in the system for more than injury, have the Patriots won the division with fewer than 11
one season (veteran corner Jason McCourty being the excep- wins.
tion), it is plenty fair to expect the starting lineup to maintain A nine- or 10-win season topped off by a division title is
their excellent technique. as much as any team could reasonably hope for after losing a
 Nonetheless, technique is only part of the equation, and it franchise cornerstone. And if Newton has a strong season, the
can be nullified by injuries to top players or an aging corner- Patriots should be able to keep him for the long term; they’re
back losing a touch of speed. Turnover and coverage regres- currently up against the cap for 2020 but rank in the top five
sion is no joke. A drop in turnover rate alone will hurt the for cap space in 2021. The day that Brady would eventually
coverage unit, let alone any other factors. leave had been a dreaded thought for the past five years or so,
 Belichick should not be expected to replace more than 30 but now that it is here, the Patriots look to have made it out the
points in AV over replacement without missing a beat. His other end in good shape. Typical Belichick.
genius can only reach so far. Belichick’s track record and the
roster’s immense cornerback talent are reasons to believe that Derrik Klassen

2019 Patriots Stats by Week Trends and Splits
 Wk vs. W-L PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 PIT W 33 3 465 308 +1 75% 69% 0% 6% Total DVOA 4.1% 11 -25.5% 1
2 at MIA W 43 0 379 184 +3 86% 8% -91% -14% Unadjusted VOA 6.0% 10 -28.5% 1
3 NYJ W 30 14 381 105 -1 68% 18% -51% -2% Weighted Trend -0.6% 15 -16.8% 4
4 at BUF W 16 10 224 375 +3 -3% -39% -44% -8% Variance 6.2% 9 11.8% 31
5 at WAS W 33 7 442 223 +1 66% 11% -46% 9% Average Opponent 1.3% 24 -5.5% 32
6 NYG W 35 14 427 213 +2 46% -8% -58% -5%
7 at NYJ W 33 0 323 154 +5 74% -2% -68% 8% Passing 14.8% 14 -33.8% 1
8 CLE W 27 13 318 310 +3 -6% -11% -20% -16% Rushing -2.7% 15 -14.0% 6
9 at BAL L 20 37 342 372 0 35% 27% 5% 14%
 First Down 4.5% 10 -28.8% 1
10 BYE
 Second Down 6.8% 10 8.4% 25
11 at PHI W 17 10 298 255 +1 21% -6% -12% 15%
 Third Down -1.0% 19 -72.0% 1
12 DAL W 13 9 282 321 +1 32% -13% -51% -6%
13 at HOU L 22 28 448 276 -1 -29% -2% 24% -3% First Half -1.9% 15 -24.7% 1
14 KC L 16 23 278 346 +1 25% -5% -39% -9% Second Half 11.5% 7 -26.4% 1
15 at CIN W 34 13 291 315 +5 16% -14% -18% 11%
16 BUF W 24 17 414 268 -1 44% 37% 0% 7% Red Zone -2.3% 18 -37.1% 1
17 MIA L 24 27 352 389 -2 -29% -9% 32% 12% Late and Close 9.6% 9 -19.8% 5
18 TEN L 13 20 307 272 -1 -5% -14% -3% 6%

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 169

Five-Year Performance
 Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
 W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2015 12-4 11.7 10.9 465 315 +7 22.6% 6 15.4% 5 -3.3% 12 3.9% 5 60.5 28 36.5 20 27.2 12 25.9 27 25.9 18
2016 14-2 12.8 11.9 441 250 +12 24.9% 1 20.8% 2 -1.8% 16 2.3% 8 51.8 25 9.4 1 27.3 7 26.6 14 26.3 9
2017 13-3 12.0 11.0 458 296 +6 22.6% 6 27.3% 1 10.9% 31 6.3% 3 37.0 18 26.7 11 27.7 3 26.3 15 26.7 3
2018 11-5 10.8 10.0 436 325 +10 14.2% 7 14.5% 5 0.4% 16 0.1% 16 40.0 18 35.2 18 28.5 1 27.2 5 27.9 1
2019 12-4 13.1 12.3 420 225 +21 30.8% 2 4.1% 11 -25.5% 1 1.2% 11 69.7 30 11.4 1 29.3 1 28.2 1 27.9 1

2019 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups
 NE Offense NE Offense vs. Opponents NE Defense NE Defense vs. Opponents
 Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
 11 55% 5.8 6.5% 31% Base 24% 5.0 5.2% 64% Base 15% 5.8 9.9% 11 59% 4.9 -35.0%
 21 15% 5.3 17.9% 51% Nickel 52% 5.1 -6.6% 37% Nickel 42% 4.6 -28.7% 12 20% 4.6 -17.0%
 12 13% 4.9 1.0% 69% Dime+ 23% 6.7 42.8% 14% Dime+ 41% 4.8 -40.4% 10 5% 6.3 -18.0%
 10 6% 6.1 43.7% 5% Goal Line 1% 0.7 17.1% 100% Goal Line 1% 0.6 4.3% 2. 5% 3.6 -44.9%
 20 6% 4.4 -1.4% 16% Big 1% 6.3 20.7% 13 3% 6.5 32.3%
 22 3% 3.3 -17.8% 55% 612 2% 5.3 9.1%

Strategic Tendencies
 Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 37% 17 Form: Single Back 66% 30 Rush 3 16.4% 5 4 DB 15% 30 Play Action 24% 16
Runs, first down 53% 10 Form: Empty Back 10% 8 Rush 4 53.6% 30 5 DB 43% 27 Offensive Motion 63% 2
Runs, second-long 21% 28 Form: Multi Back 24% 4 Rush 5 22.5% 12 6+ DB 41% 4 Avg Box (Off) 6.65 8
Runs, power sit. 78% 3 Pers: 3+ WR 66% 16 Rush 6+ 7.5% 10 Man Coverage 55% 2 Avg Box (Def) 6.47 22
Runs, behind 2H 32% 9 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 19% 30 Edge Rusher Sacks 44.6% 26 CB by Sides 54% 31 Offensive Pace 27.69 1
Pass, ahead 2H 54% 4 Pers: 6+ OL 2% 17 Interior DL Sacks 26.1% 12 S/CB Cover Ratio 24% 23 Defensive Pace 32.72 32
Run-Pass Options 2% 28 Shotgun/Pistol 52% 27 Second Level Sacks 29.3% 5 DB Blitz 11% 15 Go for it on 4th 1.39 17

 This was the third straight year that the Patriots ranked first or second in situation-neutral pace. Whether that continues with-
out Tom Brady around remains to be seen. The Patriots are not listening to the analytics people when they talk about run-
ning against light boxes. The Patriots were once again high in running against heavy boxes. They ranked first in 2018 and then
sixth last year, with 37% of runs coming against boxes of eight or more. However, also for the second straight year, the Patriots’
run DVOA was basically the same either way. New England used six linemen on 27 plays but never once passed the ball
in those sets. These plays only gained 2.3 yards on average with -28.9% DVOA. The Patriots were one of three teams that
used play-action on over 10% of third-down passes. (Indianapolis and Philadelphia were the others.) New England was
fourth in the league with 37 running back screens and had a league-leading 102.7% DVOA on these plays with 9.8 yards per
pass. The Patriots ranked second by running 11.5% of their plays without a tight end or sixth lineman in the personnel.
They had an excellent 22.8% DVOA on these plays. The Patriots defense is one of the best at tackling nearly every year,
and in 2019 their total of 86 broken tackles was the lowest in the league. The Patriots had the best defensive DVOA in the
league against both short passes (up to 15 air yards) and deep passes (16 or more air yards). They also had the best defensive
DVOA when there was no pass pressure, as the only defense with negative DVOA without pressure. With pressure, the Patriots
ranked seventh. Was there anything that the Patriots pass defense couldn’t stop? Actually, yes: the play-action pass. The
Patriots ranked tenth in DVOA against play-action passes and had the league’s biggest gap between defense of play-action
passes (9.6%) and defense of other pass plays (-43.1%). However, this is not a tendency that tends to carry over from year to
year. The Patriots were once again among the league’s least-penalized teams, tied for 30th in 2019 after ranking 26th in
2018. Their defense also benefited from a league-high 75 penalties by opposing offenses.

170 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Brady* 550 2.4% 639 3830 6.0 5.0 61.3% 24 8 J.Edelman 48 -8.6% 153 100 1117 11.2 3.2 6 65%
C.Newton 19 -8.0% 94 529 5.6 4.1 56.8% 0 1 P.Dorsett* 46 -2.1% 54 29 397 13.7 2.7 5 54%
B.Hoyer -175 -53.1% 70 332 4.7 4.5 53.8% 4 4 M.Sanu -75 -32.5% 47 26 207 8.0 2.7 1 55%
 J.Meyers 61 5.9% 41 26 359 13.8 4.4 0 63%
 J.Gordon* 10 -9.0% 36 20 287 14.4 6.7 1 56%
Rushing N.Harry -25 -26.1% 24 12 105 8.8 3.5 2 50%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc A.Brown* -1 -14.0% 8 4 56 14.0 1.8 1 50%
S.Michel 23 -6.4% 247 912 3.7 7 2 49% D.Byrd 30 -4.6% 46 32 359 11.2 4.7 1 70%
J.White -1 -9.0% 67 263 3.9 1 0 42% B.Watson* 3 -5.2% 24 17 173 10.2 4.9 0 71%
R.Burkhead 85 22.2% 65 302 4.6 3 0 52% M.LaCosse -5 -10.8% 19 13 131 10.1 3.5 1 68%
B.Bolden 34 39.5% 15 68 4.5 3 0 53% R.Izzo 36 56.4% 9 6 114 19.0 8.3 1 67%
T.Brady* 32 22.0% 11 46 4.2 3 0 - J.White 142 14.8% 95 72 645 9.0 7.4 5 76%
J.Edelman 12 -13.9% 8 27 3.4 0 0 - R.Burkhead 37 4.0% 38 27 279 10.3 8.5 0 71%
N.Harry 30 62.7% 5 49 9.8 0 0 - S.Michel -9 -21.3% 20 12 94 7.8 10.1 0 60%
D.Harris -5 -74.0% 4 12 3.0 0 0 0% B.Bolden 52 69.5% 11 9 111 12.3 6.6 1 82%
C.Newton -48 -230.2% 5 -2 -0.4 0 2 - D.Vitale 13 3.3% 12 7 97 13.9 8.0 0 58%

Offensive Line
 Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Joe Thuney LG 28 16/16 1147 0 1.0 7 3 Marshall Newhouse* LT 32 15/9 735 3 4.5 19 2
Shaq Mason RG 27 15/15 1074 4 1.0 10 9 Isaiah Wynn LT 25 8/8 503 3 1.5 13 3
Ted Karras* C 27 15/15 1046 3 1.0 13 8 James Ferentz* C/RG 31 15/2 205 0 1.0 9 1
Marcus Cannon RT 32 15/15 1014 3 6.5 28 9

 Year Yards ALY Rank Power Rank Stuff Rank 2nd Lev Rank Open Field Rank Sacks ASR Rank Press Rank F-Start Cont.
 2017 4.43 5.05 1 65% 14 16% 3 1.35 2 0.60 20 35 6.4% 13 27.0% 7 13 29
 2018 4.24 5.03 3 58% 29 16% 4 1.19 21 0.63 25 21 3.8% 1 22.9% 1 16 31
 2019 3.90 4.49 9 65% 17 21% 24 1.19 16 0.49 28 28 5.3% 5 24.7% 2 11 28
 2019 ALY by direction: Left End 3.31 (26) Left Tackle: 4.60 (9) Mid/Guard: 4.72 (6) Right Tackle: 3.96 (20) Right End: 5.17 (7)

 Offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia retired (again) following the 2019 season. Scarnecchia’s initial retirement through
2014 and 2015 did not lead to immediate collapse—the Patriots still finished second in adjusted sack rate in 2014—but the unit
fell apart after a full year without Scarnecchia, plummeting to 18th in adjusted sack rate in 2015. Starting center David
Andrews is set to return to action after missing all of last season battling blood clots in his lungs. Andrews had the best year
of his career in 2018, ranking seventh among centers in snaps per blown block. Ted Karras, who started in Andrews’ place last
year, was a much worse 27th in snaps per blown block in 2019. Without Andrews, New England fell to 24th in stuff rate after
two seasons in the top five. Given how critical the center is to setting blocking adjustments, it would make sense that losing their
starting center resulted in more blocking breakdowns up front. Do not let the lack of Pro Bowl or All-Pro selections fool
you: the Patriots were smart to franchise tag left guard Joe Thuney. For two seasons in a row, Thuney has ranked first among
left guards and top five among all interior offensive linemen in snaps per blown block. Left tackle Isaiah Wynn was firmly
mediocre last season, but the hope is that a bill of good health can turn that around. Wynn is now more than a full year removed
from the Achilles injury that ended his 2018 rookie season before it started and has now had an offseason to fully recover from
the toe injury that sidelined him for the first half of last year. Not a single Patriots offensive lineman committed more than
two false starts all season. Oddly enough, wide receiver Julian Edelman tied right tackle Marcus Cannon for most false starts
on the team. Likewise, no Patriots offensive linemen committed more than three holding penalties, with Karras and right guard
Shaq Mason tying for the team lead.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 171

Defensive Front
 Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Lawrence Guy 30 DT 16 539 61 8.1% 5 46 9 2 55 75% 51 2.3 46 3.0 2 9 0
Danny Shelton* 27 DT 16 508 61 8.1% 5 43 6 3 56 68% 75 2.8 75 3.0 4 11 0
Adam Butler 26 DT 16 483 29 3.8% 65 28 13 3 16 94% 2 1.9 27 6.0 1 13 5

 Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Kyle Van Noy* 29 OLB 15 832 59 8.3% 8 39 16 5 43 63% 76 3.2 75 6.5 11 46 3
John Simon 30 DE 16 492 47 6.2% 24 33 11 3 33 73% 51 2.3 40 4.0 3 15 3
Chase Winovich 25 DE 16 296 20 2.6% -- 15 9 2 9 67% -- 4.4 -- 5.5 3 20 0
Shilique Calhoun 28 DE 15 272 9 1.3% -- 4 1 3 6 33% -- 4.8 -- 0.0 3 14 0
Deatrich Wise 26 DE 14 232 26 3.9% -- 14 4 1 20 50% -- 4.4 -- 2.0 10 13 0
Brandon Copeland 29 OLB 12 340 37 6.1% 45 27 11 10 24 75% 39 2.1 30 1.5 1 4 0

 Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk AdjYd Rk PD Int
Jamie Collins* 31 OLB 16 833 86 11.4% 34 60 29 16 47 77% 6 3.1 12 7.0 2 19 17 53% 28 5.5 21 7 3
Dont'a Hightower 30 OLB 15 736 74 10.4% 45 40 15 6 39 59% 44 3.7 35 5.5 6 28 15 40% 56 7.3 47 4 0
Ja'Whaun Bentley 24 ILB 16 287 39 5.2% -- 27 5 2 26 77% -- 2.6 -- 0.0 1 7 13 46% -- 6.4 -- 1 0
Elandon Roberts* 26 ILB 16 210 29 3.8% -- 17 2 1 20 70% -- 3.4 -- 1.0 2 4 7 57% -- 7.0 -- 1 0

 Year Yards ALY Rank Power Rank Stuff Rank 2nd Level Rank Open Field Rank Sacks ASR Rank Press Rank
 2017 4.69 4.51 31 62% 15 16% 30 1.28 29 0.95 28 42 7.1% 10 27.5% 30
 2018 4.79 4.67 26 67% 18 16% 24 1.31 23 0.91 19 30 5.0% 30 33.0% 6
 2019 4.06 3.99 6 60% 10 18% 20 1.00 5 0.68 13 47 7.7% 8 37.1% 1
 2019 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.36 (20) Left Tackle: 2.68 (1) Mid/Guard: 4.19 (11) Right Tackle: 4.2 (14) Right End: 3.61 (12)

 The New England Patriots were one of just two teams to improve in rank in all five run defense categories (ALY, Power,
Stuff, Second-Level, and Open-Field). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the other. While plenty of other units were better over-
all, the Patriots’ boost in play across the board went a long way. In true Bill Belichick fashion, the Patriots are replacing
a solid starter, Danny Shelton, with a bargain-bin buy, Beau Allen. The former Buc played sparingly in 2019, but his 85% stop
rate in 2018 ranked 12th in the league. Allen also ranked 18th in stop rate and 13th in average rushing gain allowed as part of
the Eagles’ Super Bowl roster in 2017. Just when Kyle Van Noy had fully hit his stride as a Patriot, the team opted not to
retain him. Van Noy’s 46 hurries in 2019 were the most in his six-year career, nearly doubling the 28 he had posted the year
before. Additionally, Van Noy has increased his hurry total every season since his second year in the league. Out goes Van
Noy, in comes Michigan second-round pick Josh Uche. Uche fits the hybrid role in New England’s scheme as someone who can
play on the edge as a long-armed run defender as well as a lightning-fast pass-rusher, while also being able to play off the ball
and chase like a traditional linebacker. Many of Uche’s best pass-rush reps in college involved an inside countermove he set up
with a quick jab step outside. Alabama third-round pick Anfernee Jennings does not share the same versatility as Uche,
but he does provide a much stronger presence in the run game. Though lacking in speed and flexibility, Jennings packs a hell of
a punch when he engages and has the raw strength to bully his way into rushing lanes as well as collapse the pocket. He is the
exact kind of player who serves as a nice building block for Belichick’s defense, but is never a featured star. Among play-
ers from last year’s squad, 2019 third-round pick Chase Winovich is best positioned to make up for Van Noy’s lost production.
Winovich racked up 20 hurries on just 296 total snaps, good for about 6.8% of his snaps. Van Noy’s 46 hurries on 832 snaps
comes out to just 5.5%. Granted, Winovich was used intentionally on passing downs more often, so his numbers are skewed to
some degree, but it is promising that he could affect the quarterback so often in a limited rookie sample.

172 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE

Defensive Secondary
 Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk Dist Suc% Rk AdjYd Rk PD Int
Stephon Gilmore 30 CB 16 973 74 9.8% 11 30 22 7 11 27% 71 9.7 74 86 21.5% 27 12.3 57% 24 6.4 15 20 6
Devin McCourty 33 FS 16 968 64 8.5% 42 25 11 8 27 41% 38 9.0 57 23 5.8% 56 9.7 70% 5 5.0 9 7 5
J.C. Jackson 25 CB 16 696 46 6.1% 66 22 10 5 8 25% 72 12.3 82 58 20.3% 39 12.7 72% 2 4.0 1 10 5
Duron Harmon* 29 SS 16 669 27 3.6% 73 10 6 4 9 44% 30 6.0 30 10 3.6% 72 14.8 60% 17 9.2 58 5 2
Patrick Chung 33 SS 13 653 54 8.8% 54 23 2 7 25 52% 12 4.6 10 35 13.1% 8 8.5 46% 56 7.4 36 3 0
Jonathan Jones 27 CB 15 633 58 8.2% 43 25 14 5 11 64% 18 8.5 68 63 24.3% 10 12.6 59% 17 7.1 32 8 0
Jason McCourty 33 CB 12 482 45 7.9% 69 28 13 2 9 67% 11 4.1 18 44 22.2% 23 11.8 73% 1 5.1 5 6 1
Terrence Brooks 28 SS 15 280 25 3.5% -- 12 4 1 9 67% -- 4.1 -- 14 12.2% -- 8.1 43% -- 8.1 -- 3 1
Adrian Phillips 28 SS 7 282 32 9.5% -- 9 3 5 14 29% -- 4.9 -- 9 9.8% -- 4.2 56% -- 5.1 -- 0 0

 Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
 2017 21 18.9% 26 4.9% 19 6.8% 22 -4.9% 14 24.2% 29 -11.6% 8 10.1% 22
 2018 13 0.0% 16 -6.1% 12 -17.4% 5 -14.0% 7 -2.5% 15 -12.8% 8 9.5% 22
 2019 1 -34.5% 1 -49.9% 1 -40.1% 1 -46.3% 2 -38.4% 1 -10.6% 7 3.5% 21

 For the second year in a row, a Patriots cornerback led the league in coverage success rate. Stephon Gilmore’s 67% success
rate topped the league in 2018, while Jason McCourty’s 73% success rate took the crown in 2019. With cornerback J.C.
Jackson placing second in cornerback coverage success rate, the Patriots were the only team in the league last year to feature
two cornerbacks in the top 10. And though Gilmore wasn’t in that group, he was still the Defensive Player of the Year. 
The more defensive backs New England had on the field last season, the better they were. Going from base to nickel to dime
personnel, the Patriots’ DVOA improved from 9.9% to -28.7% to -40.4%. Among defenses with at least 5% usage for all three
personnel categories, no other defense showed the same progressive improvement the Patriots did, and many of them per-
formed progressively worse the more defensive backs they had on the field. Do-it-all safety Patrick Chung hit a decline
last season. After posting a coverage success rate of 55% or better while allowing fewer than 7 yards per target in both 2017
and 2018, Chung’s success rate fell to 46% while allowing 7.4 yards per target in 2019. In turn, the Patriots spent their first
2020 draft pick on Lenoir-Rhyne safety Kyle Dugger early in the second round. Dugger’s 6-foot-2 and 220-pound frame is a bit
bigger than Chung’s, but the former Division II safety shows the same positional flexibility that Chung did in his prime. Dugger
can fill in as a linebacker in or near the box, cover in the slot, and hold his own as a split-field defender in deep coverage. 
Don’t forget about 2019 second-round pick Joejuan Williams, even though he faced just seven targets as a rookie. At Vanderbilt,
Williams played press-man coverage all over the field, including covering tight ends when called upon.

Special Teams
 Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
 2017 6.3% 3 8.9 6 8.4 1 6.4 4 8.2 4 -0.6 18 13.1 3
 2018 0.1% 16 0.1 17 -8.7 32 5.3 5 4.5 10 -0.6 17 8.5 8
 2019 1.2% 11 -9.7 30 5.0 7 -0.9 15 10.5 3 1.2 11 6.9 4

 Four different kickers attempted at least one field goal for the Patriots last season, and six missed extra point attempts tied
Indianapolis for the most in the league. Fifth-round kicker Justin Rohrwasser (Marshall) showed massive improvement
as a redshirt senior. After finishing 1-for-5 beyond 40 yards in 2018, Rohrwasser went 7-for-8 beyond 40 yards in 2019 with a
long of 53 yards. The weird hiccup where the Patriots had the worst kickoff coverage in the league in 2018 turned out not
to be a long-term trend. Instead, the Pats were back to their usual spot as one of the best teams on both kickoff and punt cover-
age. Based on our metrics, the Patriots finished fourth in covering both kickoff returns and punt returns. Rookie Jake Bailey
handled both punts and kickoffs and added gross positive value on both. Running back Brandon Bolden was thrust into
kick return duties for the first time in his eight-year career last season but was the first Patriots kick returner to have negative
value since Cyrus Jones in 2016. Undrafted running back J.J. Taylor (Arizona) is a candidate to replace Bolden. Though under-
sized at 5-foot-6 and 185 pounds, Taylor averaged 24.1 yards per return and scored one touchdown on 41 kick return attempts
in college. The Patriots’ four blocked punts aren’t included in their special teams DVOA rating because blocked punts are
“non-repeatable” plays where past performance doesn’t usually correlate to future results, but they played a critical role in close
wins over the Bills and Cowboys. Don’t expect to see another four of them in 2020.

Wide Receivers Sample

The following five pages contain samples of our Wide Receivers chapter.
The full version of Football Outsiders Almanac 2020 has similar comments
and tables for 73 quarterbacks, 105 running backs, 140 wide receivers,
and 50 tight ends.

 173

174 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE

DeAndre Hopkins Height: 6-1 Weight: 212 College: Clemson Draft: 2013/1 (27) Born: 6-Jun-1992 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2017 HOU 15/15 1027 174 96 1378 13 24 55% -1.7 5 14.4 13.2 31 3.7 49 -0.2 9 13.3% 22 367 4 37.0% 1 20%
2018 HOU 16/16 1084 163 115 1572 11 20 71% +14.2 1 13.7 11.6 40 3.4 69 -0.9 10 22.6% 10 455 2 33.0% 1 33%
2019 HOU 15/15 1000 150 104 1165 7 11 69% +7.5 5 11.2 10.2 54 3.7 54 -1.0 17 6.2% 31 224 17 30.8% 3 52%
2020 ARI 145 96 1209 7 66% 12.6 7.3%

 Another year, another highly productive season for one of the league’s best wide receivers. Hopkins finished out his tenure
with the Texans by earning first-team All-Pro honors, though he was not quite as dominant as he had been in years past. Houston
moved him all over the field, resulting in a near-even split between targets out wide and targets from the slot or in tight. His
DVOA on those passes was almost identical, with only a 0.5% gap between those two marks. Houston responded to another
strong year by dealing him to Arizona when he requested a new contract, though his relationship with head coach Bill O’Brien
had reportedly deteriorated to a significant degree as well. Regardless of Houston’s motivation, Hopkins steps into an Arizona
unit that, while promising, could use a dose of star power to help out the young Kyler Murray. Per Over the Cap, since Hopkins
signed his most recent contract, the receiver market has increased to the point that his deal only represents the ninth-largest by
average money per year.

Adam Humphries Height: 5-11 Weight: 195 College: Clemson Draft: 2015/FA Born: 24-Jun-1993 Age: 27 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2017 TB 16/3 684 83 61 631 1 1 73% +4.7 2 10.3 7.1 81 4.6 33 -0.6 8 5.1% 36 112 42 13.8% 70 83%
2018 TB 16/10 781 105 76 816 5 5 72% +0.6 3 10.7 6.4 84 5.5 20 +0.5 6 6.7% 28 152 26 16.7% 52 84%
2019 TEN 12/3 390 47 37 374 2 2 79% +4.3 1 10.1 7.5 -- 3.2 -- -1.5 4 11.7% -- 84 -- 14.4% -- 98%
2020 TEN 51 37 382 3 73% 10.3 7.6%

 Humphries missed real time to injury for essentially the first time in his NFL career, but the biggest factor in limiting his
production was Tennessee’s decisive game-script wins. Humphries was the $8-million rock that keeps negative game scripts
away. (Lisa, Doug Marrone would like to buy your rock.) If Humphries is healthy, he’ll probably get more of a role this year,
but A.J. Brown’s breakout has probably capped his highest ceilings closer to 80 targets than 100.

Jalen Hurd Height: 6-4 Weight: 227 College: Baylor Draft: 2019/3 (67) Born: 23-Jan-1996 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 SF 29 18 242 2 62% 13.4 2.7%

 Hurd missed his entire rookie season recovering from a stress fracture in his back. While he was out, fellow 2019 rookie
Deebo Samuel impressed, but now Samuel is dealing with an injury of his own. Unfortunately for Hurd, San Francisco added
even more youth at wide receiver in the form of first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk, so he will have to scratch and claw for all the
opportunities he gets this season. His Playmaker Score was fairly lukewarm coming out of college, but it is worth noting that
he spent three years at Tennessee as a running back before transferring to Baylor his senior year and moving to wide receiver.
With how Kyle Shanahan used Samuel in the running game in 2019, it would not be surprising if Hurd were used in a similar
role if Samuel has to miss serious time.

Allen Hurns Height: 6-3 Weight: 195 College: Miami Draft: 2014/FA Born: 12-Nov-1991 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2017 JAX 10/8 537 56 39 484 2 4 70% +5.5 1 12.4 10.1 60 4.5 34 +0.5 7 20.6% 9 149 26 17.3% 50 82%
2018 DAL 16/7 452 35 20 295 2 4 57% +1.7 1 14.8 12.2 -- 3.9 -- -0.1 2 -9.3% -- 9 -- 6.7% -- 29%
2019 MIA 14/7 527 47 32 416 2 3 68% +1.0 4 13.0 10.8 -- 3.0 -- -1.4 3 5.2% -- 64 -- 8.9% -- 81%
2020 MIA 44 27 358 2 61% 13.3 2.2%

 The highs of 2015 continue to elude Allen Hurns with each passing year. Since then, Hurns has never caught more than three
touchdowns in a year and has only crossed the 100-DYAR threshold once. At his best, Hurns was a short-to-intermediate bully

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 175

who worked best on slants, curls, and in/out routes that could convert into yards after the catch. From 2016 through 2019,
however, Hurns’ yards after catch has progressively dropped from 6.0 to 3.0. Additionally, Hurns’ season only really picked up
because he had to fill in for an injured Preston Williams. Through his first seven appearances while Williams was in the lineup,
Hurns saw just 15 targets, but he earned 27 targets in the seven games without Williams. Assuming Williams remains healthy
in 2020, expect Hurns to be a role player and nothing more.

Andy Isabella Height: 5-9 Weight: 190 College: Massachusetts Draft: 2019/2 (62) Born: 18-Nov-1996 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ARI 15/1 160 13 9 189 1 1 69% +0.3 0 21.0 6.3 -- 15.6 -- +9.3 4 33.4% -- 44 -- 2.6% -- 46%
2020 ARI 18 11 161 1 61% 14.6 3.9%

 Isabella had a disappointing rookie campaign as he struggled to see the field behind more experienced but less pedigreed re-
ceivers. Isabella’s full-season statistics are inflated by an admittedly impressive 88-yard touchdown he scored against the 49ers.
As Larry Fitzgerald continues to get older, Isabella will have the chance to take on more responsibility in his second season.
But with DeAndre Hopkins now in the fold, Isabella will be stuck as the fourth option at best until he can eclipse Fitzgerald.

DeSean Jackson Height: 5-10 Weight: 175 College: California Draft: 2008/2 (49) Born: 1-Dec-1986 Age: 34 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2017 TB 14/13 610 90 50 668 3 9 56% +2.2 2 13.4 16.4 5 3.8 46 -0.3 1 1.6% 41 105 45 17.8% 45 43%
2018 TB 12/10 453 74 41 774 4 6 55% +1.3 2 18.9 19.5 1 4.4 38 -0.2 3 12.2% 25 153 25 16.4% 53 32%
2019 PHI 3/3 67 10 9 159 2 1 90% +2.7 1 17.7 14.1 -- 1.7 -- -2.6 1 41.6% -- 47 -- 9.6% -- 64%
2020 PHI 59 40 680 4 68% 17.0 15.4%

 Jackson was going to be the deep threat that added an element of verticality to Philadelphia’s offense, and it worked wonders
… in Week 1. Jackson had 66 DYAR on his three deep shots that week—and then that was it, as he injured his groin in Week
2 and then his abdomen when he returned in Week 9. The worst part is, Jackson still was the team’s leading wideout in DYAR
on deep passes, which perhaps says more about Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor than it does about Jackson. When healthy,
Jackson is still a blazing-fast and productive deep threat, but he has now missed 19 games over the last three seasons. There’s
a reason the Eagles went out and added Jalen Reagor and Marquise Goodwin this offseason; this time, all their eggs won’t be
in Jackson’s fragile basket.

Justin Jefferson Height: 6-1 Weight: 202 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2020/1 (22) Born: 16-Jan-1999 Age: 21 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 MIN 64 42 561 4 66% 13.4 8.2%

 In the Minnesota chapter, we already discussed how Jefferson will have to adjust to being used on the outside more in the
pros. The other issue he’ll need to work on is the crispness and complexity of his routes. LSU used a lot of bunch and trips
formations to help Jefferson get lost in the crowd, and when he was one-on-one, he had trouble beating physical coverage.
That being said, when he’s open, the ball sticks to his hands; he may be the best natural pass-catcher of any of the first-round
receivers this year.

Van Jefferson Height: 6-2 Weight: 197 College: Florida Draft: 2020/2 (57) Born: 26-Jul-1996 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 LAR 30 18 230 1 60% 12.8 -0.5%

 Jefferson’s selection in the second round was a bit of a head-scratcher. In two years at Mississippi and two more at Florida, he
maxed out at 657 yards in a season and never ranked better than 13th in the SEC in that category. And Jefferson seems to have
less room for development than most wideouts in the draft—he’s old for a rookie, he’s small, and he enters the pros close to a
finished product best known for his route-running and fundamentals. His father Shawn Jefferson was an NFL wide receiver—

176 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE

he played for 13 years and reached the Super Bowl with the Chargers—and currently is a receivers coach for Adam Gase and
the New York Jets. The younger Jefferson has been absorbing that knowledge his entire life; is there that much more he can
learn from the Rams’ coaching staff? Jefferson goes into training camp as the team’s fourth wideout, but that’s a bigger role in
L.A. than it is on many other clubs, so he’ll get his chances to make an impact.

Alshon Jeffery Height: 6-3 Weight: 218 College: South Carolina Draft: 2012/2 (45) Born: 14-Feb-1990 Age: 30 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2017 PHI 16/16 927 120 57 789 9 18 48% -7.6 4 13.8 14.2 21 3.4 59 -0.4 3 -1.2% 49 108 43 21.8% 22 36%
2018 PHI 13/13 771 92 65 843 6 10 71% +6.5 4 13.0 11.6 39 4.1 47 -0.5 11 21.1% 13 251 14 19.7% 33 39%
2019 PHI 10/10 504 73 43 490 4 6 59% -2.0 4 11.4 11.6 43 2.7 76 -1.5 3 -4.2% 52 50 54 19.4% 42 28%
2020 PHI 54 31 383 2 57% 12.4 -9.0%

 Jeffery is coming off of a Lisfranc injury, the worst possible variation on a broken foot for a wide receiver. He went down
in December without contact and, as of press time, still doesn’t have a timetable for his return. The Eagles still hope that he’ll
be ready for action right off the bat, with Jeffery and DeSean Jackson starting before rookie Jalen Reagor is ready, but that all
depends on how the 30-year-old’s foot holds out. Jeffery’s biggest asset to the Eagles is that he’s not competing with one of the
many speedsters Philly added this offseason; he’s the big outside option, with only J.J. Arcega-Whiteside really competing with
him for that role in the offense. If JJAW had produced a promising rookie season, perhaps the Eagles would have moved on
from Jeffery. Instead, last year’s team leader among wideouts in DYAR and DVOA will be counted on once more.

Jerry Jeudy Height: 6-1 Weight: 192 College: Alabama Draft: 2020/1 (15) Born: 24-Apr-1999 Age: 21 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 DEN 83 46 614 3 55% 13.3 -8.4%

 Jeudy caught 155 passes for 2,478 yards and 24 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Alabama, but he was the second re-
ceiver selected from his own program in April’s draft because Henry Ruggs’ 4.27s combine 40-yard dash made NFL executives
drool. Jeudy has plenty of speed and is a far better route-runner than either Ruggs or Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, who was also
selected before him. Jeudy should establish himself as the Broncos’ No. 2 receiver while Ruggs and Lamb are still being used
as screen-reverse-bomb package guys by their teams, and Jeudy could start seeing more targets than Courtland Sutton as the
season wears on; Jeudy is better suited to shorter routes, while Sutton may be most effective as a vertical boundary threat. Jeudy
and Sutton give the Broncos a receiving tandem which could be on par with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in their
prime. Drew Lock ain’t Peyton Manning by a long stretch, but at least he has some weapons to work with.

Diontae Johnson Height: 5-10 Weight: 181 College: Toledo Draft: 2019/3 (66) Born: 5-Jul-1996 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 PIT 16/12 666 91 59 680 5 2 64% +2.6 5 11.5 10.0 59 5.2 16 +0.2 22 -8.9% 63 26 61 18.6% 48 33%
2020 PIT 98 61 758 5 62% 12.4 -1.0%

 Keep in mind that because JuJu Smith-Schuster was often a slot player, Johnson had to play the vast majority of his snaps
outside, negating easy looks. That makes his rookie numbers a bit more impressive, as he had by far the highest catch rate
amongst the main Steelers wideouts and displayed the quick lateral movement to shake open on a number of occasions against
top-flight corners such as Richard Sherman, Marcus Peters, and Patrick Peterson. Johnson had more broken tackles than many
NFL running backs had on a much lower number of touches. If Ben Roethlisberger can stay healthy, Johnson has sky-high
fantasy football potential and should be higher on radars than he currently appears to be. However, it should be noted that his
core muscle offseason surgery still had not been completely cleared by team doctors as of a late-May conference call.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 177

KeeSean Johnson Height: 6-1 Weight: 199 College: Fresno State Draft: 2019/6 (174) Born: 9-Oct-1996 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ARI 10/4 378 42 21 187 1 2 50% -5.2 2 8.9 9.9 -- 2.0 -- -2.1 1 -45.6% -- -105 -- 12.5% -- 7%
2020 ARI 8 5 61 0 63% 12.2 -0.7%

 The last of three receivers drafted by Arizona in 2019, Johnson leapfrogged both his fellow draftees for playing time in his
first season. Johnson saw a decent amount of playing time considering his draft status and unimpressive receiving production
when on the field for the Cardinals, likely due to his playbook knowledge and his willingness to help out in run blocking. John-
son struggled in a major way as a receiver across all three downs and was not much of a factor in the red zone when targeted.
We expect him to fall on the depth chart this year, at least behind Andy Isabella and possibly farther.

Olabisi Johnson Height: 6-0 Weight: 203 College: Colorado State Draft: 2019/7 (247) Born: 17-Mar-1997 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIN 16/6 547 45 31 294 3 8 69% +3.0 1 9.5 9.6 -- 2.2 -- -1.6 1 0.9% -- 49 -- 10.2% -- 61%
2020 MIN 37 26 308 2 70% 11.8 10.6%

 The surgeon general suggests only taking Bisi Johnson in small doses. DYAR is a counting stat, so most players’ top days will
come when they get fed the ball over and over again. Not Johnson—Johnson had three games with just one target, and those
were three of his top five single-game performances, while the two games in which he received nine targets combined for -11
DYAR and a -20.1% DVOA. You could do worse as a third or fourth target, certainly, but Johnson’s biggest moments in 2019
were when he was able to get matched up against a third or fourth cornerback and make a play. Still, an average DVOA for a
seventh-round pick is a successful season in anyone’s book.

Tyler Johnson Height: 6-2 Weight: 205 College: Minnesota Draft: 2020/5 (161) Born: 25-Aug-1998 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 TB 14 9 119 1 64% 13.2 3.4%

 Receivers drafted in the fifth round rarely make an immediate impact. From 2010 through 2019, teams chose 38 receivers
in the fifth round. A third of them didn’t catch a pass during their rookie seasons. The last one the Buccaneers drafted, Justin
Watson, caught one pass for 5 yards in 2018 and has been relegated to the “Going Deep” section of this chapter. Every now and
then, though, someone surprises—Kenny Stills in 2013, Stefon Diggs in 2015, Tyreek Hill in 2016, and Hunter Renfrow and
Darius Slayton last season.
 Will Johnson be next? Our Playmaker Score suggests he has a better chance than most. As noted in The SIS Football Rookie
Handbook 2020, Johnson is an intelligent player who can reliably read coverages and identify blitzers, a trait that gives him the
inside track to becoming Tom Brady’s new favorite slot receiver. What he lacks in straight-line speed, he makes up for in his
ability to make contested catches. When Tampa Bay’s not in 12 personnel, look for No. 18.

Julio Jones Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Alabama Draft: 2011/1 (6) Born: 8-Feb-1989 Age: 31 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2017 ATL 16/16 766 148 88 1444 3 19 59% +3.1 8 16.4 14.2 20 5.5 13 +1.1 17 13.7% 18 313 7 28.7% 4 51%
2018 ATL 16/16 818 170 113 1677 8 10 66% +10.1 6 14.8 14.5 14 4.0 51 -0.4 13 15.9% 17 382 6 28.2% 5 43%
2019 ATL 15/15 834 157 99 1394 6 11 63% +4.5 5 14.1 12.6 34 3.5 61 -0.7 10 11.6% 21 299 7 25.6% 11 49%
2020 ATL 145 98 1339 7 68% 13.7 11.5%

 Jones is basically the perfect wide receiver. At 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, he can win over the top and by bullying smaller cor-
nerbacks. With a 4.39s 40, he can run past most others. He has produced an above-average receiving DVOA all nine seasons of
his professional career, including now four straight years at 10.0% or better. And the bizarre end zone inefficiency that became
one of the major narratives of the Falcons’ Super Bowl hangover—Jones scored just three touchdowns and caught just two of
19 end zone targets in 2017—was clearly either a fluke or a vestige of poor play calling by then-offensive coordinator Steve
Sarkisian. In the two years since, Jones has caught 9 of 20 end zone targets (plus a 32-yard DPI) and reasserted himself as one