NEW DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES: SOCIOECONOMIC EFFECTS AND POTENTIAL FOR INNOVATION - Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R - Cepal
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
NEW DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES:
SOCIOECONOMIC EFFECTS AND POTENTIAL FOR INNOVATION
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R.
Humanity is at a turning point
The future will be very different from the present
We are entering the most disruptive era in • the very competitive forces of capitalism compel
human history, driven by exponential accelerated technological change
technological change. It entails: • So far, technological progress has generally played
a positive role,
• Extraordinary opportunities
BUT…
• Huge challenges
• Unlike other periods of great transformation,
today the effects are global, immediate, deep
and increasingly irreversible
For the first time in history, thinking and skilful machines are surpassing
our physical abilities, and also our cognitive ones
Accelerating Technological Change and
Eras of Technological Progress
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
6 Wave th
Curva exponencial
Exponential Curve
or Size
It feelsrepen/no
Se siente sudden
o tamaño
5th Wave -Artificial General
Intelligence
-Robotics
Quantity
Major Events of Innovation -Hyperconnectivity
-Genomics and
Synthetic Life
Can/dad
4th Wave -Clean Tech
Innovation Impact
-Sustainability
-Renewable Energy
Se It feelsgradual
siente gradual 3rd Wave
-Green
Nanotechnology
-Radical Resource
-Digital Productivity
Networks
Tiempo o secuencia
Time or Sequence -Software
-Whole-system-Design
2nd Wave and Closed-Loop
-Plastics Information Manufacturing
-Petrochemicals Technology -Green-Chemistry
-Electricity
-Electronics -Biotechnology
The fulfilment of the Sustainable
-Chemicals -Industrial Ecology
-Aviation -Artificial -Neurotechnology and
1st Wave -internal
-Steam Power -Space Intelligence Neurobiology
-Railroad Combustion
-Nuclear -Internet-of-
Development Goals (SDG) of Engine -Advanced Medicine
-Steel Things -Virtual and
-Iron -Cotton
-Water Power Augmented
Agenda 2030 will reside within a -Mechanisation
-Textiles
-Commerce
Technology
world of exponential
1785 1845 1900 1950 2000
technological change Year
Growing synergy among emerging technologies has created a vastly expanding
arborescence of scientific research, knowledge and emerging technologies
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R.
Accelerating technological change will continue past the next decade
Computational Speed: Calculations / Second / Dollar Computer Power has Increased one trillion
times since the fifties Ex
aS
ca
le
Ti
an
he
-3
US
Ti
an
he
Logarithmic Curve -2
Computing
power and
cost:
Cost of Human Genome Sequencing (US $) DNA Sequencing Capability has grown exponentially
(logarithmic curve)
$100M 1Zbp
Worldwide Annual Sequencing Capacity
s
th
on
Cumulative Number of Human Genomes
7m s
nth
1E+09 e ry th)
ev row 12
mo
Genome
ery e)
$10M b
u i
les cal g
b les ev stimat
E
Logarithmic Curve Do istor Dou mina
(h (Illu
18 mo
nths 1Ebp
s every
sequencing $1M 1E+06
Current Capability
Double ’s Law)
(M o o re
and cost:
ExAC
$100k
1E+03 TCGA 1Pbp
1000 Genomes
$10k
1st 454
1E+00 1st Sanger:
Wheeler et al.
$1k 1st Personal Genome:
IHGSC et al. Levy et al. 1Tbp
Venter et al.
$100 0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
FUENTE: National Human Genome Research Institute Source: “Big Data: Astronomical or Genomical?”
Zachary D. Stephens Skylar Y. Lee Faraz Faghri Roy H. Campbell Chengxiang Zhai Miles J. Efron Ravishankar Iyer Michael C.
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R. Schatz Saurabh Sinha Gene E. Robinson
This could represent a colossal advantage for humanity, but the irrational, abusive, belligerent or negligent application of these technologies could also lead to social tragedies and even global catastrophes These challenges are probably more urgent to address, and the consequences of not doing so more imminent and devastating, than predictions of climate change
What to Expect?
On the bright side On the challenging side
We could find solutions to It could also lead to
• meeting all SDGs • mass-unemployment
• unleashing creative and collaborative • greater inequality
forces of all humanity
• freeing people from repetitive, • structural deflation
undignified and dangerous jobs • loss of privacy and freedom
• overcoming scarcity
• collapse of governance systems
It all depends on what we do today
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R.
Digitalisation, AI and other exponential technologies can
contribute to:
• drastically boost productivity and GENERIC CASE:
growth CONTRIBUTION OF INTERNET AND
• reduce marginal costs of producing DIGITIZATION
TO DEVELOPMENT
additional units of anything
Transactions Costs ($)
• achieve renewable energy capacity Cu r
tra ve of
• lower prices for consumers nsa pre
ctio -in
n c tern
• increase returns Po
s
cos t-int
o st
s et
t cu ern
• more administrative efficiency rve et tr
an sa
ctio
• transparency n
• planning and evaluation capacity
• optimise consumption and welfare
Inclusion Efficiency Innovation
of more users in its use extension and low cost
SOURCE: WORLD BANK: “Digital Dividends”, 2016, p. 45
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R.
On the challenging side
Exponential technological change could lead to:
GENERIC CASE:
Prices adapted to the performance of nominal
• rapid automation AUTOMATION VS EMPLOYMENT
• intelligent robotic evolution
salaries and operating costs (US $ / h)
• 3D and 4D printing
human operating
• change in international trade flows costs in various
• loss of comparative advantages based on cheap labour industries or
and resources countries
could lead to Operating cost of
• migration of industry in the form of fully automated robots and automated
activities systems
TIME
• technological unemployment
• greater inequality SPECULATIVE VARIATION OF REAL INCOME OF WORLD POPULATION
BY PERCENTILE
• sudden deindustrialization of developing economies Global Growth Impact Curve
World´s
Richest 1%
2010 A 2020
Risk of automation of occupations in several countries 2020-2030
Developed
Cumulative growth rate
Emerging Economies Countries´Middle
Middle Classes Classes
OECD CHINA USA INDIA NIGERIA SOUTHFRICA ARGENTINA ETIOPIA
(promedio) 77% 47% 69% 65% 67%% 65%% 85%
57% 2030-2040
SOURCE: WORLD BANK (DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 2016)
Percentiles of Global Income Distribution
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R.
Ignorance is not bliss
• Government and business leaders have little awareness of the
speed and implications of the tsunami that is coming and
• how it will affect, for good and for bad, economies and companies
There is a gap between
• people’s perception of their socioeconomic problems and
• the powerful and rapidly growing solutions and challenges that
new technologies can bring
Q ELEMENT Dr. José Ramón López-Portillo R.
State of Affairs:
Latin American countries have poor technology absorption and innovation capabilities
Private innovation and technology absorption is mainly • poor planning and organizational skills
inhibited because of: • insufficient public incentives and infrastructure
• lack of financing, access to capital and financial conditions • use of the Internet, digital platforms, artificial intelligence
• insufficient information, climate of distrust, high risks and systems and protection against cyber attacks is very low
low returnsState of Affairs:
technically able population and S&T reading is very low in LAC
All countries need to seriously invest in
• boosting their technological capabilities and
• intensify their education and training programmes
to take full advantage of the opportunities created by accelerated technological change and to overcome its challengesState of Affairs:
Technological and innovation capabilities are key to fast and sustainable growth
There is a positive correlation between innovation, productivity and growth of public and private companies:
ECLAC: “…the lack of a structural change strategy towards more technology-intensive activities underlies the slow and
unstable economic growth and is a limit to the advance of the digital economy”
However, R&D strategy and spending must be long term and directed correctly because not all innovations lead to
economy-wide growthState of Affairs:
S&T knowledge and patent generation is very low in LAC:
technology will come from abroad
But must be careful with blunt
measures because:
• not all investments are equal, and
• there is strong evidence to show
that the relationship between R&D
and innovation, and in turn
innovation and growth is not linear
Complementary institutions (low-tech)
and right conditions are essential
• to allow innovation
• circulation of knowledge throughout
the economy
• and at the company level
Examples: Japan (2.5% of GDP) and
Russia (4% of GDP) in 1970s:
• Japan grew faster because
knowledge flowed horizontallyA case in Europe
In Europe, countries that suffered the most from the Eurozone crisis were
those spending the least on R&D:Big Question: How to socialize the benefits, and not just the risks of technological advance It is government, not the private sector that invests in high-risk but essential basic research that is uncertain but produces real innovation
Challenges:
the problem of governance
It is difficult for institutions, and for society, to adapt effectively and in a timely manner
• Institutions move
linearly
• Technological change
does so exponentially
Entrepreneurial and innovative State (Mariana Mazzucato):
strengthening governance system, adaptive regulations, rule of law and raising educational
standardsWhat to do?
1. Within a multilateral dialogue, all States must
• urgently establish national and local open forums
• with participation of civil society, academia, and the private sector
• based on a bottom-up process and
• a vigorous debate
2. Effectiveness will depend on
• gathering
• analysing and
• disseminating
• all relevant information and best practices from around the world on
• how new technologies can have a positive impact toward achieving SDG
3. All countries need to
• seriously invest in boosting their technological capabilities and infrastructure, for example:
• 4G Internet affordable to all
• strategic support for innovation
• accessible spaces for testing engineering and digital solutions
• Intensify education and training programmes to
• take full advantage of the opportunities created by accelerated technological change and to
• overcome its challengesYou can also read
