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inside asian gaming Macau VIP in 2018 BLUE PAGES The value of sports january 2018 betting data #139 | 30 MOP NAGAWORLD raises the bar www.asgam.com
CONTENTS JANUARY 2018 COVER STORY Cover Image: IN FOCUS NagaCorp Strength in numbers 14 Enter the Dragon2 NagaWorld’s expansion lifts the Mekong region’s largest 10 Breakfast Briefs integrated resort and Phnom Penh into the top IN FOCUS tier of regional destinations, with an increasing focus on 22 Strength in numbers Macau’s VIP segment has been historically volatile, but has Chinese tourists. surprised with the sheer strength of its resurgence in 2017. What can we expect in 2018? BLUE PAGES 28 Data driven From the traditional betting habits of Europe to the expanses of Asia, data analytics firm BettorLogic is showing how the correct use of data can provide benefits to sportsbook operators and customers alike. THE DISMAL OPTIMIST 34 The rise of Chinese technology and the US response In his latest column for Inside Asian Gaming, Dr Peter T Treadway explores the rise of Chinese technology and its long-term implications KEEN OBSERVATIONS 40 Seperation and instability in the EU In his latest column for IAG, Dr Brian To considers the potential impact of recent moves for independence within the European Union. TECH TALK 44 Aristocrat’s European vacation Aristocrat will be showcasing some of its strongest performing Asian concepts at this year’s ICE Totally Gaming trade show in London. 46 Mission: Macau International Game Technology is confident its new range of titles developed specifically for Asia will make a major impact when deployed in Macau next year. 50 EVENTS CALENDAR
EDITORIAL DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION Managing Editor Director of Digital Business Development VP Operations Ben Blaschke Kevin Sam Karen Cheong Editor at Large Journalist and Social Media Distribution Supervisor Muhammad Cohen Joseff Musa Emily Vong Founder and Adviser Distribution Officers SALES & MARKETING Anson Ip Kareem Jalal Peng Cheang VP Sales and Marketing Mak Man Wah Graphic Design Winnie Tan Rui Gomes Hoi Hou Wai Associate Director Sales Contributors and Business Development CORPORATE Paul Doocey Jadeson Ho Dr Brian To CEO Steve Karoul Hong Kong Sales Andrew W Scott Rui Pinto Proença Angel Wong Chief Financial Officer Peter T Treadway Fred Wong Dr Glenn McCartney Client Relationship Manager I Nelson Rose Caroline Iau Director and Administrator Cynthia Cheang Still photography IT Danomad Kuan Accounting and Compliance Director IT Director Anita Loi Video Producer Michael Lau Danomad Kuan Administration Assistant IT Administrator Suie Ng Alison Cheang Executive Transportation Officer Gary Hong Advertising Enquiries Subscription Enquiries Jadeson Ho jh@asgam.com +853 6331 5577 Emily Vong emily@asgam.com +853 6647 4123 Inside Asian Gaming Must Read Publications Macau registered publication number 295 is a subsidiary of Published by Must Read Publications Ltd Macau registered press company number EP98 Press releases – bb@asgam.com | Enquiries – admin@asgam.com +853 2883 6497 | Price MOP$30 Printed by Cochin Advertising Printing Service Co., Ltd. Est. Nova da Ilha Verde 180 r/c R www.asgam.com ISSN 2070-7681 www.omediamacau.com 6 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
EDITORIAL Big things in store for Asian gaming in 2018 A year is a long time in the gaming industry. Take a quick look Also set to open in early 2018 is Melco Resorts’ new luxury Macau hotel back at the events that shaped our industry in 2017 and it’s Morpheus at City of Dreams. Construction of the Zaha Hadid-designed hard not to be shocked by just how many industry-changing hotel has been hard to miss over the past two years as it has gradually risen events have taken place – from the tragic shootings in Manila skyward alongside the Cotai Strip and like MGM Cotai it promises to raise and Las Vegas to the ongoing saga of Japan’s casino legislation, the the bar once again for Asia’s entertainment hub with its elite combination of jailing of 16 Crown Resorts staff and the remarkable allegations of fraud premium mass and VIP gaming alongside many other high-end offerings. against Kazuo Okada by his company (and family). Only a few weeks ago Melco Resorts announced that an entire floor No doubt we’ll be looking back again in another 12 months’ time at a of Morpheus will be occupied by famous French chef Alain Ducasse via series of memorable events that will have shaped 2018, but as we warm two restaurants and a bar. Those restaurants will include Alain Ducasse at into the new year there are already a number of positive developments Morpheus, serving French contemporary haute cuisine, and Voyages by to look forward to. Alain Ducasse – described as “a unique take on Asian cuisines inspired The first of these, of course, is the long-awaited opening of MGM Cotai by Ducasse’s travels over the past 30 years.” in Macau on 29 January. Originally planned to open in 1H17, MGM Cotai – On a personal note, it’s been a long time since I’ve looked forward to like many of its Cotai IR peers – has suffered a series of setbacks along the a property opening as much as I am looking forward to the launch of both way, most recently due to damage from Typhoon Hato in August. MGM Cotai and Morpheus. If anything, however, these delays have only added to the anticipation Openings aside, the other big news story on the horizon for 2018 given the intriguing glimpses MGM China has provided into its new is, once again, Japan. Despite it now being more than a year since the property’s offerings. Aside from providing another 1,400 much-needed ruling LDP government passed the IR Promotion Bill in December 2016 hotel rooms, MGM Cotai will boast a high-tech interactive theatre with – primarily as a result of legitimate and widespread concerns regarding a world-first 28 million pixel giant LED screen covering 900 square Japan’s gambling addiction problems – the next step is tipped to be meters, a series of exciting fine dining restaurants including Cantonese just a matter of months away. Following on from the re-election of restaurant Chún, Sichuan specialist Five Foot Road, Hǎo Guō which will Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in November, it is expected that a gambling offer seafood hotpot and regional Chinese cuisine, Miàn Duì Miàn – a addiction bill will be passed imminently followed by the final piece of 24-hour Chinese restaurant serving handmade noodles and dumplings legislation, the IR Implementation Bill, mid-year. – and Bar Patuá, a contemporary bar serving crafted cocktails using From there, watch the sparks fly as the world’s biggest IR operators uniquely oriental ingredients such as Chinese tea and herbs. jostle to win one of Japan’s prized casino licenses. It is sure to become MGM Cotai will also be home to the company’s Mansion product the story of the year. – an exclusive villa for VIP guests inspired by 18th century Italian architecture. The Mansion follows on from the hugely successful version Ben Blaschke at MGM Grand in Las Vegas and is expected to be a game-changer for Managing Editor MGM China in the VIP space. We crave your feedback. Please email your comments to bb@asgam.com. www.asgam.com 8 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
GALAXY ANNOUNCES PLANS FOR US$500 MILLION PHILIPPINES RESORT LEADING MACAU CONCESSIONAIRE like to play a role in the One Belt One Galaxy Macau Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG) has Road initiative and we strongly believe announced plans to build a US$300 the Philippines has great potential and million to US$500 million integrated offers attractive opportunities.” resort on the island of Boracay in the In a separate report, the President Philippines. of Philippine gaming regulator Pagcor, As reported by Bloomberg, GEG Alfredo Lim, told Reuters that the new Deputy Chairman Francis Lui met with resort could be operational within three Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte years of receiving regulatory approval. in early December to discuss gaming “It will further improve our tourism opportunities, with Galaxy in the process sector,” Lim added. “The project is of applying for a license alongside its intended for foreigners, junket operators Philippines partner, Leisure & Resorts and high-rollers.” World Corp. Boracay, an island located in the In a media statement, Lui said, “As central Philippines, is one of the you know, China’s relationship with the country’s top tourist destinations and Philippines has been improving. is famed for its white beaches and “K Wah Group and Galaxy would turquoise water. Marina Bay Sands tops list of world’s most Instagrammed hotels Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands has been revealed as the most Instagrammed hotel in the world. The iconic hotel topped an official list unveiled by Instagram, with the more than one million images uploaded enough to beat out other globally recognized landmarks such as the Bellagio and Venetian in Las Vegas and Dubai’s Atlantis The Palm. Notably, seven of the top 10 hotels were located in Las Vegas, with the Bellagio sitting in second spot ahead of the Venetian, MGM Grand, the Cosmopolitan, Wynn Las Vegas, Caesars Palace and Paris. In a statement, a Marina Bay Sands spokesman said, “We thank our guests and ground-up support from guests, celebs, around the world, with standout features fans for making Marina Bay Sands the most media and influencers alike.” such as The Parisian Macao’s Eiffel Instagrammed hotel worldwide. We are Social media has become a key Tower providing invaluable marketing truly grateful for this phenomenal organic, promotional tool for integrated resorts opportunities for operators. 10 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
Melco International increases Cyprus IR stake Melco International Development has entered into a joint venture investment agreement with its partner in Cyprus, CPZ, that will see its stake in their integrated resort project increase to 75%. The agreement lays out the details for the development and operation of an integrated casino resort in Limassol and up to four satellite casino premises in Cyprus via recently established project holding company ICR Holdings Ltd, with Melco describing it as a unique and attractive business opportunity to “develop and operate integrated casino resorts in Cyprus … consistent with the Melco Group’s broader objective of establishing itself as a global entertainment and gaming operator.” Included in the joint venture investment agreement is a subscription agreement between CPZ and ICR Holdings relating to the subscription for shares by Melco and CPZ in ICR Holdings, which will see Melco acquire an additional 4.26% of the equity in ICR Holdings, of ICR Holdings will have a maximum management of the casino. taking its stake from 70.74% to 75%. Likewise, of six directors, of which Melco has the Under the shareholders’ agreement, CPZ’s equity will fall from 29.26% to 25%. right to appoint four and CPZ one. Melco Melco International’s 51.22%-owned Melco will pay a total of €160 million in will also retain the right to appoint the subsidiary Melco Resorts & Entertainment cash for the issue of the new shares. Chairman for as long as it holds at least Limited – which operates City of Dreams, The joint venture investment 10% of the issued share capital of the Studio City and Altira in Macau as well as agreement also includes a shareholders’ company and to appoint one extra director City of Dreams Manila – will be responsible agreement which stipulates that the board for as long as it is responsible for the for the management of the project. JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 11
WYNN TO BUY FORMER ALON LAS VEGAS SITE FROM CROWN RESORTS THE LAS VEGAS Strip site formerly pegged for Crown Resorts’ ambitious US$2.5 billion Alon Las Vegas project has been snapped up by Wynn Resorts. In an announcement, Crown said it had entered into an agreement with a subsidiary of Wynn Resorts Ltd to sell the vacant 34.6 acre site for US$300 million – around US$100 million less than had been previously forecast. The transaction is expected to be completed by late January 2018 with Crown’s share of the gross proceeds to come in at around US$264 million. Crown resorts announced in May 2017 its intention to sell the parcel of land, having previously revealed in December 2016 that it was backing out of the Alon project. Wynn Resorts has hailed the acquisition of the land – located directly across the Las Vegas Strip from Wynn Las Vegas – as a unique opportunity. “The agreement completes a unique assembly of contiguous real estate of approximately 280 acres that spans from the Las Vegas Convention Center on Paradise Road from the east, to Industrial Road on the west,” it said. “The future development of the land will further change tourist “The combined frontage on the Las Vegas Strip is over 3,500 visitation patterns in Las Vegas drawing more visitors to the north feet, including rights to approximately 1,000 acre feet of water. end of Las Vegas Blvd and its collection of luxury resorts, including It is adjacent to nearly six million square feet of convention and the existing Wynn Las Vegas and the Paradise Park development exhibition space. The average cost of the full assembly of 280 acres slated to begin construction in January 2018 on the site of the is less than US$3 million per acre. former Wynn Golf Course.” Sega Sammy and Kyoto University to launch three-year problem gambling study Japanese gaming machine manufacturer to a person’s engagement in dangerous to deal sincerely with social issues.” and IR operator Sega Sammy Holdings gambling. The results are expected to “For the introduction of IRs in Japan, Inc is set to link with Kyoto University to elucidate the mechanisms that induce advanced IR development based on the conduct a three-year study into gambling gambling addiction, the company said. study of precedent cases from other addiction which it says “will be utilized in Sega Sammy has stated its intention to countries is required,” it said. “This requires Japan to establish measures to prevent its pursue a Japanese casino license and has IRs to offer not only attractive facilities and onset, progression and recurrence.” made no secret of the fact that its first foray content, but solutions to social issues. The research, to begin in 2018 and into casino operations at Korea’s Paradise “Sega Sammy has been working to run through to 2021, will be led by Kokoro City – of which it owns 45% – is a move develop a system for the collection of a type Research Center of Kyoto University and designed to gain IR experience. of player data at casino facilities that has yet aided by the Graduate School of Medicine. Explaining its new gambling addiction to be achieved in existing operations. Using It will see data from overseas casino study, Sega Sammy said that although it this research, we aim to build a system to operations collected and analyzed with the plans to enter the IR business in Japan, it identify players exhibiting signs of addiction aim of identifying signs that appear prior “believes it is the responsibility of operators and prevent further progression.” 12 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
Melco Resorts would relocate to Japan if casino bid successful Lawrence Ho would relocate both himself and the company’s headquarters to Japan if Melco Resorts & Entertainment was awarded a casino license by the Japanese government. In an interview with Reuters, the Chairman and CEO reiterated his view that Japan will become Asia’s most significant gaming jurisdiction outside of Macau with Melco set to go “all-in” in its pursuit of a license. “It’s not just any ordinary project and will become the most important project outside Macau,” Ho said. “I would personally move here while we are building it and we would move the core management team and headquarters here.” Melco Resorts has unveiled its Japan IR concept titled “The City of the Future” – a futuristic and eco-friendly integrated resort boasting state-of-the art facial recognition technology aimed at combatting problem gambling. The concept aims to create the most advanced gaming and entertainment destination in the world while still holding true to the distinct history and heritage of Japan, with Melco stating that its “team of architects, advisors and environmental specialists are working to make the site both energy-neutral and aesthetically daring. The Stars Group to revive Asia Pacific Poker Tour in 2018 The Asia Pacific Poker Tour (APPT) most recognized live tournament series LIVE Macau at City of Dreams from 14 to is set to return in 2018 just 12 months including the European Poker Tour (EPT) 25 March. after being dumped as part of a major and Latin America Poker Tour (LAPT). The Stars Group – formerly known as overhaul by organizer The Stars Group of But the news will be particularly well Amaya Inc – had controversially announced its global tours. received in Asia with the APPT holding in 2016 that it was putting an end to the In a December announcement, The a unique place in history as PokerStars’ APPT after 10 seasons and combining all Stars Group – owner of the world’s largest first branded international tour when it of its live tournament offerings into two online poker site PokerStars – revealed launched in 2007. The first official APPT series – the PokerStars Championship and that it was bringing back a number of its event in 2018 will be held at PokerStars PokerStars Festival. JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 13
COVER STORY Muhammad Cohen also blogs for Forbes on gaming throughout Asia and wrote Hong Kong On Air, a novel set during the 1997 handover about TV news, love, betrayal, high finance and cheap lingerie. 14 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
COVER STORY ENTER THE DRAGON2 NagaWorld’s expansion lifts the Mekong region’s largest integrated resort and Phnom Penh into the top tier of regional destinations, with an increasing focus on Chinese tourists. By Muhammad Cohen | Editor at large in Phnom Penh JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 15
COVER STORY W HEN I first visited NagaWorld six years ago, the more tables and thousands more machines. The plan brought to mind casino hotel overlooking the Mekong River in the underwater casino plan for Macau’s City of Dreams: a wonderfully Cambodia’s capital proved a pleasant surprise. appealing impossible dream. Fast forward to 3 November 2017 and the From its Pan-Asian breakfast buffet to themed soft opening of Naga2 revealed everything Ngai, now the company’s gaming areas to the spa with a jacuzzi in every Chief Marketing Officer for Southeast and East Asia, described and treatment room and signature four-hand massage, NagaWorld more, all in a compelling Paul Steelman designed package with a exceeded expectations and demonstrated the business smarts that construction cost of US$392 million. That’s truly fantastic. made parent company NagaCorp one of the top performers on the Hong Kong stock market since its 2006 IPO as the exchange’s first casino listing. Everything about NagaWorld seemed eminently practical and cleverly considered – everything except the company’s plan for a “Naga2 lifts the only casino “Naga2” across the street, linked to the original via an underground shopping mall. NagaWorld’s then-Managing Director for Casino in booming Phnom Penh Operations and Property Mike Ngai described two towers, one with into the top rank of regional guest rooms for mass market customers and the other for VIPs, featuring in-room gaming, plus a theater seating thousands, hundreds gaming destinations.” A VIP gaming suite at Naga2 16 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
COVER STORY A VIP hotel suite “The overwhelming bulk I think our Chinese visitors in particular will continue to grow and enjoy our new property,” NagaCorp Chairman Timothy McNally says. of Naga2 rooms are in In its 22 years, starting on a barge on a branch of the Mekong River, Naga has upped its game incrementally. It came ashore with the hotel tower, but the a few dozen gaming tables and couple of hundred slot machines in 2003. In 2006, its Hong Kong IPO – the first international stock VIP tower may become listing for a principally Cambodian enterprise – raised US$95 million to add hotel rooms. A decade of measured steps built business NagaWorld’s signature. capacity and credibility – NagaRock and Saigon Palace themed gaming floors; a live dealer multigame area and, when that proved The VIP tower features nine successful, a second node; a second hotel wing targeting the mass floors of suites, four per market; outreach to Macau junkets; more VIP rooms and guest suites sufficiently stylish to rival any in the region. floor. Two suites per floor “The idea is to position a first world product in a third world market,” NagaCorp CEO, founder and majority shareholder Chen Lip include their own gaming Keong told a media briefing ahead of the Naga2 opening. “That is a competitive edge.” room with a table.” NagaCorp’s revenue has grown from US$150.5 million in 2010 to US$531.6 million in 2016 and US$401.6 million in the first half of 2017. EBITDA rose from US$61.9 million in 2010 to US$256.1 million in 2016 and US$181 million in the first half of 2017. Building from that base, Naga has taken a great leap forward. Naga2 lifts the only casino in booming Phnom Penh into the top rank of regional gaming destinations. The gleaming gold twin DOUBLE UP towers of Naga2 substantially raise the ante for a company that has Officially soft-opened on 3 November, Naga2 more than doubles kept its focus on the Southeast Asian mass market, largely escaping the size of the NagaWorld complex. Completing its outfitting in the 2014-16 downturn that devastated Macau and fellow ASEAN the coming months, the two new towers add at least 300 gaming (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member Singapore. Naga2 tables and 2,500 slot machines across four main gaming levels also enables management to play for a greater share of growing and multiple VIP areas. The full complex is expected to reach 600 Chinese outbound tourism, forecast to reach 200 million travelers tables and more than 5,000 machines, some still operated via by 2020. China has supplanted neighboring Vietnam as Cambodia’s third party partnerships that include placement fees and revenue largest visitor source, growing 44% to 700,000 in the first eight share for NagaCorp. months of 2017. Naga2 gaming areas extend the casino cell concept with varied “We’ve just built a foundation from mass market tourism and design, food and music choices. They also continue the Macau level JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 17
COVER STORY table minimums – US$100 for baccarat “squeeze games” that allow Hall of Golden Chimes, a noodle bar, 2Pangaea with Indochina’s bettors to handle their cards, US$40 minimums for baccarat with longest buffet, a food court at Naga2’s entrance from NagaCity cards dealt face up. There are sic bo and roulette tables, but card Walk and bars in many gaming areas. Almost every food outlet has games dominate, principally blackjack, poker variants – Naga1 has adjacent slot machines: Paul Steelman says slots overlooking dining a pair of Texas hold’em tables – plus Vietnamese favorites Bai Buu garner higher revenue. and Ngau Ham. The new towers add 900 guest rooms, bringing NagaWorld’s TAKING ADVANTAGE total to 1,700. Naga2 features an elegant multipurpose Broadway Naga2 illustrates how the company effectively leverages its style theater with 2,200 seats and full state of the art visual projection competitive advantages – and sometimes creates them. NagaCorp capabilities, suitable for MICE applications, concerts and international holds a 70-year gaming license, including an exclusive for Phnom touring companies. NagaCity Walk, the underground shopping area Penh until 2035. Naga hasn’t abused the privilege to build multiple linking the two sides of the complex, has 3,800 square meters (41,000 casinos, Chairman McNally points out. Instead, along with corporate square feet) of retail space, nearly 15 times more shopping than support for the nation’s rebuilding to overcome the Khmer Rouge Naga1, across two dozen storefronts ranging from local products to legacy of destruction, Naga has forged a partnership with the international fashions, much of it duty-free and new to Cambodia. government to boost tourism, financially supporting Cambodian Naga means dragon in many Asian languages but also connotes tourism offices in China and leasing three Airbus A320s for Bassaka gold in some Chinese dialects, so gold and Khmer themes dominate Air, an international airline based in Phnom Penh. public areas, with VIP rooms sporting lotus, butterfly and other Cambodia’s relatively low costs, along with Naga’s careful eye motifs. New dining and drinking options include opulent Cantonese on capital expenditures, held construction costs for Naga2 and 18 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
COVER STORY The Hall of Golden Chimes Chinese Restaurant “Naga has forged a NagaCity Walk to US$392 million, plus perhaps half as much again for outfitting it. NagaCorp reports it’s spent a total of US$1.5 billion partnership with the on the NagaWorld complex and that commercial real estate specialist Colliers International has valued it at US$5.1 billion. government to boost Low costs extend to labor and taxes in the single digits; the latter may change with pending gaming legislation that Naga says it tourism, financially wholeheartedly supports. Low overhead enables Naga to offer junket commission and revenue share deals that are at the top end of the supporting Cambodian market, as well as boosting NagaCorp’s bottom line. On the other hand, Naga executives believe Cambodia’s real and perceived lack of tourism offices in China regulatory rigor has resulted in penalties from investors and bankers – exorbitant bank interest rate demands led Dr Chen to personally and leasing three Airbus finance Naga2 via a convertible bond arrangement; he took payment in shares last August – and added costs of self-regulation, such as its A320s for Bassaka Air, an biannual independent audits for compliance with international anti- money laundering standards. international airline The overwhelming bulk of Naga2 rooms are in the hotel tower, but the VIP tower may become NagaWorld’s signature. The VIP tower based in Phnom Penh.” features nine floors of suites, four per floor. Two suites per floor JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 19
COVER STORY include their own gaming room with a table, and the wall between because some high rollers deferred trips awaiting Naga2. those gaming areas can be removed. Naga says it will encourage Even before the formal soft opening, high roller action was brisk VIPs to occupy entire floors. in open suites and other new VIP areas, though initial Macau junket promoter response has been mixed. “We have no major reaction MOVING UP towards the Naga2 opening and [continue] business as per normal, The VIP tower culminates a typically measured effort that began in pending players patronage requests,” Suncity Group President for March 2013 to expand high roller play using junkets. “We were able to Marketing Strategy YM Choong says. increase table limits, bringing a little bit higher quality players though After visiting ahead of the Naga2 opening, Rich Goldman CEO revenue share agreements where they received a percentage of the Nicholas Niglio says, “They accommodate people the way they win but they also were responsible for some of the loss,” McNally should be treated. It can be one of the top three places in the region explains. “That gave us a managed risk approach.” outside Macau.” Niglio notes though that, “Our relationship is in the In 2012, as a self-proclaimed “low-end VIP destination,” infant stage.” NagaWorld reported VIP roll of US$3.8 billion and VIP revenue Overall, Union Gaming co-founder Grant Govertsen, a longtime of US$94.5 million. That represented 34% of total revenue and NagaCorp bull, expects upside to its second half revenue estimate of 17% of gross profits. After four years of enhanced incentives and US$6.8 billion and its full 2017 EBITDA call of US$284 million. The upgraded facilities, the 2016 figures were US$8.7 billion in roll and boutique investment bank sees EBITDA of US$392 million in 2018 US$225.7 million in revenue, representing 42% of total revenue and US$429 million in 2019. and 19% of gross profits. For the first half of 2017, in a rising regional VIP market, roll rose 71% over the first half of 2016 to “CHINA READY” US$7.8 billion and revenue rose 89% to US$210.5 million, growing Much of the new growth will likely come from China. to 52% of revenue and 23% of profits. VIP growth slackened to “With that wave of consumerism coming from China, there’s 58% in the third quarter, according to Union Gaming, probably a lot of energy and we are on the doorstep of China,” Dr Chen, a Naga2’s Elixir of Life Spa 20 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
COVER STORY Malaysian trained as a physician who came to Cambodia in the early in China and very much adhere to and strictly follow those guidelines 1990s as part of Malaysia’s Prosper Thy Neighbor policy, says. “It’s a when we deal with China – and we do that through the vehicle of very exciting time with all of the FDI [foreign direct investment] and tourism and building relationships,” McNally says. movement of people from China to here.” Naga emphasizes it’s not abandoning its roots in ASEAN, a Naga associate Bassaka Air facilitates that movement with market of 650 million. Naga2 opened with a gala ASEAN themed three weekly flights each from Changsha, Xian, Hangzhou and ceremony and dinner attended by Cambodian ministers and regional Tsingtao, mainland China cities that have fewer direct international diplomats, featuring entertainment by four ASEAN divas who earlier flight options than Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Bassaka paraded through NagaCity Walk in a selfie and social media frenzy. also flies daily to Kuala Lumpur and twice weekly to Macau. Naga “We are in the heart of Indochina and by no means deviating from works with state-owned China International Travel Service to our mission statement of being the best entertainment destination in create tours for mainland travelers that include Phnom Penh and the Mekong region. Our focus will remain on the immediate area, Siem Reap, site of the Angkor Wat temple complex, a 40 minute particularly on the mass market,” McNally says. Bassaka Air flight from the capital. Naga also engaged CITS But Naga, like the rest of the regional hospitality business, can’t subsidiary China Duty Free Group as principal tenant and leasing ignore China. At the Naga2 briefing, Dr Chen revealed an ambition agent for NagaCity Walk. to curl Naga properties dragon-like around China. Next up, Naga’s Those initiatives are part of making NagaWorld “China ready” casino under development in Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. Dr with more Mandarin speaking staff and food options that appeal Chen cited discussions with officials in Mongolia and Kazakhstan to mainland guests. Naga executives stress that they are aiming at to build resorts there. Those resorts wouldn’t necessarily feature tourists and not promoting gambling. gambling – Dr Chen’s holdings in Malaysia include non-gaming “We can develop our market and expand mass market, certainly Nexus Resort Karambunai in Borneo’s Sabah state – but would focus China front and center, because we have cemented a very good on Chinese travelers. And in Phnom Penh, executives say, they are relationship, we are very sensitive to issues of promotion of gaming already thinking about Naga3. JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 21
IN FOCUS FEATURE Strength in numbers Macau’s VIP segment has been historically volatile, but has surprised with the sheer strength of its resurgence in 2017. What can we expect from VIP in 2018? By Ben Blaschke I F the jury was out on the sustainability of Macau VIP’s upwards with VIP revenue growing 16.8% to MOP$35.5 billion in resurgence for much of 2017, it’s not anymore. Having 1Q17, 34.8% to MOP$35.9 billion in 2Q17 and 28.1% to MOP$36.7 copped the worst of the battering from the city’s two-year billion in 3Q17. decline in gross gaming revenue – which saw VIP GGR fall That’s despite analysts warning early in the year that the VIP a massive 39.9% year-on-year in 2015 alone – the segment segment’s first full quarter of growth in almost three years in 4Q16 staged a stunning recovery in 2017 thanks to higher liquidity and couldn’t be relied upon to repeat through the rest of 2017. better conditions in China. “The strength seen in 4Q16 was not primarily driven by VIP. It The recovery began in 4Q16 with a 12.7% year-on-year increase was driven by mass,” said Union Gaming’s Head of Equity Research, in revenue generated through VIP baccarat, then quickly soared Grant Govertsen, in January. 22 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
IN FOCUS “This is very important in the context of what we see as a Despite earlier concerns over VIP due to its renowned volatility, sustainable mass market led recovery. While we are very happy to Govertsen believes growth through 2018 is likely to come in at around finally see VIP turn positive we remain cautious on the outlook for 20% growth even taking into account a likely slowdown towards the this segment, which is driven by increasing concerns on Beijing’s back end of the year. stance on capital flight.” “We would expect to see VIP growth maintain around the 30%- Govertsen has argued that a recent reclassification of gaming plus level for 4Q17 and into 1H18,” he told Inside Asian Gaming. tables in Macau has skewed government data towards VIP, so while “As comps get tougher in 2H18 we look for the year-on-year VIP in 4Q16 officially grew 12.7% and mass market 8%, those figures growth rate in VIP GGR to moderate … ultimately we expect the full- were, he said, essentially “backwards.” year to see approximately 20% growth in VIP GGR.” He wasn’t alone in exercising caution over the segment either, According to Govertsen, there are a myriad of factors favoring with analysts from brokerage Sanford C Bernstein stating in February VIP at the moment, including “more and more high-end customers that they were “becoming more concerned about China government returning to the market” and the fact that Macau’s junkets are “flush actions to stem capital outflows.” with liquidity, which ultimately begets greater VIP volumes. “If such actions target Macau, the headwinds could be material,” “Effectively, what we’re witnessing is the opposite of the 2014- they added. 2016 downturn that saw a host of negative factors all working in Instead, Macau VIP surprised just about everyone in 2017 by concert in a downward direction.” not only maintaining positive growth but in fact surging as the year The VIP resurgence has been reflected by the health of Macau’s progressed – a fact that completely changes the outlook for the VIP junket operators, whose numbers tumbled during the height of the segment in 2018. city’s two-year downturn from more than 213 licensed junket operators “Macau VIP surprised just about everyone in 2017 by not only maintaining positive growth but in fact surging as the year progressed – a fact that completely changes the outlook for the VIP segment in 2018.” JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 23
IN FOCUS FEATURE Meg-Star International opened a new VIP club at Wynn Macau in December In June, Qian Jin VIP club began operations at L’Arc while Macau “Effectively, what we’re Legend announced in October that it had signed an agreement with witnessing is the opposite junket promoter Sheng Li V Limited to run three VIP tables in Ka Sing VIP club at Legend Palace until the end of 2019. of the 2014-2016 downturn In December, two of Macau’s biggest junkets – Tak Chun Group and Meg-Star International – launched new VIP clubs on the that saw a host of negative Peninsula at MGM Macau and Wynn Macau respectively. Meg-Star’s Lian Sheng VIP Club became the operator’s fifth factors all working in concert Macau operation, having opened its fourth at Wynn Palace in April, in a downward direction.” while Tak Chun’s announcement of a return to MGM was particularly notable given that it had shut down its previous VIP room at the – Grant Govertsen same property just 15 months earlier. Tak Chun has since informed IAG that it will be opening two more VIP clubs in Cotai in early 2018. The fact that both MGM Cotai with its famed Mansion VIP residences, and Melco Resorts’ new luxury hotel Morpheus, are due in 2013 to just 126 as of January 2017. Those figures included a 23% to come online in 1H18 won’t hurt the segment either. decline in the number of licensed operators through 2015 (from 183 Asked about its plans for Macau in 2018, a Meg-Star International to 141) and another 10.6% decline in 2016 (from 141 to 126). spokesman said, “Due to the overall economy improvement and new While current figures were unavailable at the time of print, the projects entering into the market, the company maintains a positive cursory evidence suggests a distinct reversal of that trend highlighted view on the development of the Macau VIP market in 2018 for both by the opening of a number of new junket rooms at casinos across Macau Peninsula and Cotai. The company will actively adjust its Macau during the back half of 2017. development strategy depending on the development of the market David Group, one of Macau’s leading junkets before trimming and hopes to maintain a healthy growth in coming years.” back its operations in 2015, suddenly re-emerged in 2017 when it Not all are as confident in the long-term potential of Macau’s announced that it would be running VIP at the new Roosevelt Hotel VIP through 2018 as Govertsen’s 20% growth prediction, with in Taipa, which opened its doors in July. It also launched a VIP room Morgan Stanley tipping a more modest 11% as recently as November at Studio City and another at Galaxy. – although this is raised from a previous forecast of 8% “as junket 24 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
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IN FOCUS FEATURE liquidity remains abundant.” Notably, Morgan Stanley sees the VIP segment maintaining growth of 11% through 2019 as well. Industry-wide consensus is that Macau’s future inevitably lies in the mass market segment, which will be aided in the coming years by improved infrastructure and more five-star hotel rooms – leading to a better quality of customer who stay longer and spend more. However, as Bernstein analysts wrote in a recent study on Chinese consumer spending, “Considerable discussion occurs when we try to segment the market into VIP, Premium Mass and Base/Grind Mass, because the market is much more complicated. Aside from some of the clear differences between VIP and “cash” (ie. mass) customers, a case can be rightfully made that most gaming spend in Macau today is premium in nature.” With the average gaming spend by a mass market visitor to Macau sitting between US$450 to US$550 per trip – buoyed by the fact that profit margins in the mass segment are roughly four times higher than VIP – it makes sense that this is where the greatest opportunity exists going forward. But even with VIP eventually slowing, Bernstein expects it to grow at 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years and 4.55% CAGR over the next 10. That may not be quite as lucrative as the heady days of February 2014, when VIP baccarat alone contributed 65% of Macau’s all-time record MOP$38 billion in gaming revenue, but it at least bodes well for VIP gaming’s sustainability. As Govertsen says, “There will always be demand for VIP in Macau.” Tak Chun Group CEO Levo Chan MGM Cotai will help boost Macau’s VIP offerings when it opens on 29 January 2018 “The VIP resurgence has been reflected by the health of Macau’s junket operators, whose numbers tumbled during the height of the city’s two-year downturn.” 26 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
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iGAMING BLUE PAGES iGAMING IN DEPTH O From the traditional betting habits of Europe NE of the enormous challenges facing sportsbook to the expanses of Asia, data analytics firm operators today is standing out from the crowd. It’s a BettorLogic is showing how the correct use problem that is particularly of data can provide benefits to sportsbook confronting in Asia, where the sheer volume of options available to customers – both operators and customers alike. legal and illegal – make for a saturated market. Yet for Andrew Dagnall, CEO of data analytics firm BettorLogic, the solution isn’t as elusive as it seems. By Ben Blaschke “We are driven by an inherent belief that 28 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
iGAMING BLUE PAGES iGAMING IN DEPTH the actual betting experience for the bettor is to pages reflecting their personal betting of fascinating differences between bettors in not what it should be,” he explains. preferences and provided with prompts Asia and those in other parts of the world. Dagnall’s simple but salient observation known to appeal to them. “From the data we’ve had from our came from his own experience as a bettor, But it also provides an opportunity Asian clients, we’ve certainly seen that where his interest in spread betting to cross international borders, with the timeframe when someone is betting was stifled by a lack of readily available Bettorlogic’s analysis having found a number quite often follows patterns and we would information to aid his bet selections. attribute that to their lifestyle or their work “I thought it would be very useful to style,” Dagnall says. know what one should consider when “We have noticed the fact that pre-event making a bet,” he continues. “I mean, with the parlays and the mixed parlays are very horse racing all you needed to do was pick popular. And for the in-play Asian bettor up one of the trade papers and that would “We are driven by an the principal difference to the European or give you the form you required to study a horse race, but if you wanted to bet on inherent belief that UK bettor is they will be much more active in a single event, whether it’s hedging what something like the US Masters, what were the actual betting they’ve bet on or increasing their market the important considerations? Was it position in a particular event. We’ve even important that someone had finished in the experience for the noticed that quite often it is completely top 10 at the Masters before or had won a natural to see eight to 10 in-play bets on a PGA Tour event? bettor is not what it single game whereas in the UK that tends to “That was the idea I had to begin with – to focus on B2C, which was perhaps slightly should be.” be restricted to one or two. “Obviously the main driver in Asia naïve. We weren’t a tipping service, we just is football although there is less of a said ‘Here is the information as it relates to the betting market’.” As it turned out, there wasn’t a lot of money in B2C, but BettorLogic’s product did appeal to sportsbooks and their eternal quest BettorLogic CEO to stand out from that crowd. And so, from Andrew Dagnall humble beginnings, the company developed its range of data analytics products – easibet, livelogic, multibet and nextbet – which essentially provide bettors with statistical reasons to bet delivered directly through their sportsbook both before and during sporting events. “An example would be a Spanish La Liga game where it’s 1-0 to Real Madrid after 60 minutes and we might send out a prompt saying there will be at least two more goals scored in the match based on the historic statistical evidence,” Dagnall explains. “Just as importantly we take into account the history of the bettor in terms of how and when they like to bet. Sportsbooks have so much data on their customers, they know exactly what they like to do, they know what type of bets they like to place, what events and with a bit more intelligence they would know how they react when doing well and how they react when doing badly. To that extent, we use the sportsbook’s data to create a profile of the player and it identifies exactly what their preferences are.” The idea is to create a more personalized sportsbook experience for each individual user whereby they are directed straight JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 29
iGAMING BLUE PAGES iGAMING IN DEPTH An example of statistical betting prompts on UEFA Champions League matches concentration on a particular league compared to, say, Africa which is very much EPL (English Premier League) focussed. “The idea is to create a more personalized “There is also much more focus on what football is being played today. Asian sportsbook experience for each individual user users are not particularly interested in what football is taking place tomorrow or in two whereby they are directed straight to pages days’ time, so as a consequence something reflecting their personal betting preferences and like the Europa League tends to be quite popular because it is played on a Thursday provided with prompts known to appeal to them.” and there is very little other football played on Thursdays. 30 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
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iGAMING BLUE PAGES iGAMING IN DEPTH “Asia is still about 1x2, the Asian handicap or the goals handicaps. In the UK you tend to get a lot of the ‘both teams to score’ bet whereas Asia is more about ‘next team to score’.” “Finally, in Asia the markets are much themselves, that their focus is much more more concentrated. Asia is still about 1x2, on running the operation and expanding the Asian handicap or the goals handicaps. their customer base.” In the UK you tend to get a lot of the ‘both Ultimately that means lost opportunities teams to score’ bet whereas Asia is more for operators and huge opportunity for about ‘next team to score’.” companies like BettorLogic. After all, most Despite identifying such clear trends in bettors won’t hesitate to place a bet if given the region, Dagnall says that Asian-based a compelling reason to do so. operators haven’t yet, for the most part, “I think that invariably the typical bettor made the most of the huge amounts of data is always looking for a reason to have a bet,” available in the digital era. Dagnall offers. “That’s what we do. If you “The main handicap in Asia is them take in-play betting as an example, we know actually getting the data and getting the data before the game starts all the possible match in a state whereby they can actually use it,” situations which means the operator can set he explains. “For example, we look at about up push notifications for when those match 15 bits of data related to a bet. I would say situation occur. That can be very compelling that from the Asian operators we have got from the point of view of the bettor because data from, it has taken them considerably they feel like there is an instant decision to longer to get the data into what I would call be made. a fit form. “In our experience, if you provide that “That might be an indication that reason they are far more inclined to say ‘Yes English Premier League betting prompts perhaps they are not really looking at the data I will’ than ‘No I won’t’.” 32 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
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THE DISMAL OPTIMIST The rise of Chinese technology and the US response In his latest column for Inside Asian Gaming, Dr Peter T Treadway explores the rise of Chinese technology and its long-term implications I By Dr Peter T Treadway N 1914 the Europeans (including the British) ruled the world. Their empires spanned the globe, their culture reigned supreme, financially they were the center of the Professor, author and world, their science was a marvel and they had convinced financial advisor, themselves and a good part of the world that they possessed Dr Peter T Treadway is currently principal of a moral superiority. But by 1945, they had massacred tens of Historical Analytics LLC, millions of their citizens, bombed their beautiful cities into rubble a consulting firm with an and bankrupted themselves financially and morally. German, the investment approach based emerging language of technology in 1914, disappeared from the on his Wall Street experience pages of global science. as economist, strategist and How did such a catastrophe happen? Simply put, Britain, France securities analyst. and Russia could not abide the rise of an aggressive Germany and unwittingly opted to destroy their entire European civilization. Only 34 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
THE DISMAL OPTIMIST the entry of the United States – fortuitously a clone-offspring of The conundrum: Civilian uses – not military – are driving democratic Britain – prevented total annihilation. new technology Nobody wants 1914-1945 to happen again. In the past, there was a clear division between military and civilian technology. The military could develop its own technology in secret History repeats for things like nuclear bombs, laser-guided bombs or stealth The United States – today still the world’s global hegemon and fighters. The US could keep China or anybody else from acquiring policeman – faces the rise of a new and much larger global rival, this technology. But today, new technology is being driven by civilian the People’s Republic of China. The United States is going to have rather than military uses. The civilian sector gets things first. There to adjust to the reality that in the coming decades it is highly likely are no secrets. Just patents. (though not quite inevitable) that China will usurp the US’ number Therein lies the problem for those who would try to cut off the one role in the world. If China does enough things right, there is little technology flows from the US to China. Today it is computer games, the US can do to stop the Chinese ascent. America’s only “hope” is autonomous vehicles, virtual and augmented reality, genomics, AI, that China will not do enough things right. China is obsessed with technology, getting rich and reclaiming its historical role in the world. Through initiatives such as the Made in China 2025 program, China has clearly indicated that its principle objective for its economy is to become number one in technology. “The United States is going to Technology will raise the living standards of the Chinese people and have to adjust to the reality ensure the position of China in the world. Make no mistake. The big US/China differences in the future won’t be about steel or territorial that in the coming decades it disputes. They will be about technology. The China worriers in the US will seek to halt the progress in Chinese tech. is highly likely (though not In my opinion, the US can slow the Chinese technological advance quite inevitable) that China will with trade wars and petty bans on Chinese investment and the like, but it cannot stop it. Moreover, such policies would be disruptive to usurp the US’ number one role the US and Chinese economies alike. in the world.” JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 35
THE DISMAL OPTIMIST “Through initiatives such as the Made in China 2025 program, China has clearly indicated that its principle objective for its economy is to become number one in technology.” robotics, drones, the cloud, blockchain – the list goes on – that is driving new technology. These are all global non-military industries. Listen to any top tech company’s earnings call and the conversation always covers how the company is doing in global markets including China. Gamers are more important than generals in the explosion of global tech! Nvidia for example was driven to improve its GPU (Graphic Processing) chips by the insatiable demands of gamers, not the Pentagon. The GPU later became indispensable in AI and autonomous cars and now data mining for bitcoin. The Pentagon probably didn’t know any of this was coming even though now it may wish it had. To be fair, there is DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency. DARPA has played a role in developing robotic and autonomous car technology. But the primary tech drivers have been civilian. The Chinese and American companies are working on this. Cut the flow of technology and consumers everywhere will lose. A recent report sponsored by the Department of Defense lamented that so much of civilian technology has dual military-civilian uses. The report, written by Michael Brown and Pavneet Singh, has the governmentalese super-long title of China’s Technology Transfer Strategy: How Chinese Investments in Emerging Technology Enable a Strategic Competitor to Access the Crown Jewels of US Innovation. The report takes particular issue with Chinese investments in US start-ups, viewing these investments as a national defense problem. The report may have a point. But if implemented it would smother US innovation and ensure there were no new crown jewels. Technology today is being driven globally by markets, not the US government. It is being driven by nerdy teenagers playing computer games, by busy women who want versus 568,000 in the United States. Some might take issue regarding Amazon’s Alexa to do their chores and select and deliver their clothes quality but Alphabet Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt, who should and their meals and by aging fogies who need help driving their cars. know, has been quoted as saying about Chinese STEM graduates, The military adds nothing to this new civilian knowledge economy. “If you have any kind of concern that somehow their system is not Yes, these civilian technologies may have huge military uses. But cut going to produce the kind of people that I’m talking about (qualified off the civilian side and there will be nothing for the militaries. scientists), you’re wrong.” Interestingly, two Chinese institutions, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University, placed in the Cutting off the flow of technology to China will prove futile top 10 on the Nikkei list for most quoted AI-related research papers The Chinese tech rise will be unstoppable unless the Chinese over 2012-2016. (Microsoft was first). government follows really restrictive and stupid policies. It all starts with The government report mentioned above states that one quarter education. The Chinese can’t get enough. The reality is that so-called of US STEM graduate students are Chinese foreign nationals who STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering, math) are a major then are not allowed to stay in the US to work after graduation. This focus of Chinese education. In 2016, according to the World Economic reflects a big flaw in American immigration policy as the report Forum, 4.7 million Chinese students graduated in STEM subjects somewhat surprisingly admits. 36 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING JANUARY 2018
THE DISMAL OPTIMIST The one quarter number apparently leaves out Indian foreign students and Asian American students who also are reported to be big in the STEM subject area. Is it that some groups are better at math and science or is there some other reason? This is one politically charged subject that needs taking on but not in this column. I will just cite inadequacies in the American educational process and the eagerness of the Chinese to learn. One might ask – where are the American STEM students? Ban the Chinese (and Indian) nationals and some graduate schools would probably close. It is unlikely the foreign students would be replaced by Americans. You can’t win with nobody. America’s educational problems lie with America, not China. Another problem for those who would cut off the flow of tech to China, China will prove a magnet for engineers and scientists in surrounding countries with a similar culture. There won’t be any stopping this flow. The Middle Kingdom (China) has been the center of East Asian intellectual life for millennia. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are loaded with engineers and tech talent. So long as Xi Jinping doesn’t pull down an iron isolationist curtain around China, many of these talented professionals will migrate to seek their fortune in the Middle Kingdom. They already have. And America may have a hard time bullying other countries to cut tech to China. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor just announced it was considering building a 3nm chip fab (chip factory) in China. Without getting into the technical “weeds”, this is a very big deal and very state of the art. True, Taiwan Semi will control the fab and the technology but still… Regarding its military, America should worry about its internal The Chinese Academy of Sciences placed in the top 10 on the Nikkei list for most quoted AI-related research papers from 2012 to 2016. JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 37
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