NEON QUICK OVERVIEW LESSONS LEARNED - Na#onal Ecological Observatory Network - H. Loescher, M. Keller, D. Schimel
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Na#onal Ecological Observatory Network
NEON QUICK OVERVIEW
LESSONS LEARNED
H. Loescher, M. Keller, D. Schimel
1
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AK
NEON DESIGN
Grand Challenges in
Environmental Sciences
1. Biodiversity
2. Biogeochemical cycles
3. Climate change
4. Ecohydrology
5. Infectious disease
6. Invasive species
7. Land use
NRC (National Research Council). 2001. Grand Challenges in
Environmental Sciences. Washington DC: National Academies Press.
NRC (National Research Council). 2003. NEON: Addressing the Nation's
Environmental Challenges. Washington DC: National Academies Press.
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AK
J.A. Klein
2
NEON grand challenge questions
How will ecosystems [of the United States] and their
components respond to changes in natural‐ and human‐
induced forcings such as climate, land use, and invasive
species across a range of spa;al and temporal scales? And,
what is the pace and paLern of the responses?
How do the internal responses and feedbacks of
biogeochemistry, biodiversity, hydroecology and bio;c
structure and func;on interact with changes in climate, land
use, and invasive species? And, how do these feedbacks vary
with ecological context and spa;al and temporal scales?
3
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AK
How did we design NEON?
• Capabilities based • Requirements based
• “What can we do?” • “What must be done?”
• The capabilities based • The requirements based
design is a collection that design is a logical
lacks a clear hierarchy. progression from a top
level to successively
• Open ended. lower levels of design and
data products.
• Defined costs.
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AK
Requirements Based Design • Requirements do not necessarily impose a single unique solution. • Definition of necessary requirements is relatively straightforward. • Definition of sufficient requirements is very difficult for NEON because it is a user facility. October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AK
June 2009 NEON PDR 6 October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AK
NEON’s Scientific Approach
NEON Strategy Applied to Measurements
Environmental Science Ques;ons
R (Focused Research Ques;ons)
E I
Q N
U Usable Informa;on F
I (Data Products) O
R R
E M
M FIU, AQU, STREON A
E (Science Requirements) T
N I
T O
Engineering and Cyber Infrastructure N
S
(Technical Requirements and Designs)
7
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON GOALS
The overarching goal of NEON is to enable
understanding and forecasting of climate change,
land use change, and invasive species on
continental-scale ecology by providing
infrastructure to support research in these areas.
• Information infrastructure: Consistent, continental, long-
term, multi-scaled data-sets and data products that serve as a
context for research and education.
• Physical Infrastructure: A research platform for investigator-
initiated sensors, observations, and experiments providing
physical infrastructure, cyberinfrastructure, human resources,
and expertise, and program management and coordination.
8
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKA National Observatory: 20 Eco-climatic Domains
Coupled science strategy for the
Taiga and Tundra Domains (D19 and D18).
10
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON Science Facilities (subsystems)
Human Observers/
FSU Fundamental Sen;nel Unit
Samplers
Fundamental Instrument Automated
FIU
Unit Instrumenta;on
Airborne Observa;on
AOP AircraX Remote Sensing
Package
LUAP Land Use Analysis Package Satellite Remote Sensing +
11
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON Deployment
• Headquarters (incl. CI, labs, etc.) - Boulder
• 20 Domains
• 20 Core sites (wildland)
• 40 Relocatable sites (land-use sites)
• Site labs
• 10 Mobile laboratories (AK, HI, CONUS+PR)
• 3 Airborne Observation Platforms
• Land Use Analysis Package
• STREON Experiment
12
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKSpatial Scales for NEON
Log10 m Unit of Study Component
-10 Genome (single nucleotide) FSU
-7 to 2 Organism (virus to sequoia) FSU
3 Air- and Watersheds FIU
4 Sub-Regions AOP
7 Continent LUAP
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKSpatial Scaling Strategy
LUAP
AOP Ecological
Forecast
models
FIU
Mobile Labs
FSU+ AQS
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKObserving System Simulations
Time to detection from a network model
Hanta
flux
PAR
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKEcological/Carbon Forecasting
1) What is the most likely future state of an
ecological system?
2) What-if: what is the most likely future state
of a system given a decision today?
16
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKHow are ecological forecasting
and observations related?
The need for observations of the starting point (now)
The need for quantitative information about specific
processes (temperature sensitivity, susceptibility
to drought, tipping points…)
• Estimates of system state
• Information on process parameters
• Experiments/process studies to elucidate
unknown processes and non-linear responses
• Observations collected systematically over time
and space to challenge iterative forecasts
17
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKData and Forecasting
Improvements in forecasts come from repeated
comparison between data (both observational and
experimental) and model forecasts
18
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON Aquatic Experiment
• STREON Experiment
– 10 locations
– Low order streams
– Nutrient additions (2x
ambient)
– Top consumer
removals
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON Terrestrial Experiment
• Global Change Experiment
(GCE)
– stand level
– 4 to 6 locations
– Factorial design
– 2 to 3 treatments
– 5 reps
– CO2 ambient, 750 ppm
– T (ambient, + 4°C)
– ppt (ambient, drought)
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKTGCE Hypotheses
• Interactions among key drivers – Ecosystem
functions (productivity, respiration, nutrient cycling, and water flux) are
affected by the interactions of temperature, carbon dioxide, and biological
diversity.
• Time scales of ecosystem feedbacks
and regime shifts (1) - Long-term increases in
temperature and CO2 promote population and community scale shifts that,
in turn, alter ecosystem functions in ways that are not directly predictable
from shorter term response surfaces.
• Time scales of ecosystem feedbacks
and regime shifts (2) – Over time, the impacts of
temperature and CO2 increases on changes at the population and
community scales will outweigh the direct effects of these drivers on
ecosystem functions.
21
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKScales of response
adapted from Smith et al., in review, Ecology
22
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKTGCE Experimental Design
• Nominal design is a 2 x 2 factorial with 5 reps of 8 m plots
•The design may be modified based on further study with
the variables to be modified including plot size and the
number of replicates
• Option to retain only some treatments
‐ CO2 + CO2
‐T ‐T
‐ CO2 + CO2
+T +T
23
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKTreatment plot design
Schematic diagram for the
deployment of infrared heaters over
a 8-m-diameter hexagonal plot via
the use of seven internal 3.2-m-
diameter hexagons.
24
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKTreatment plot design
Theoretical distribution of the
thermal radiation received on a
plot surface from 24 groups (or
nodes) of black-body flat plate
heaters deployed in the
hexagonal patterns depicted in
previous slide
25
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON Terrestrial Experiment
• Global Change Experiment (GCE)
– Failure to launch, lack of consensus science steering group
– NSF budgetary constrains for the whole project
– preliminary budget
• ~ XX mil to construct, >XX mil y-1 to operate
– Once our funding profile for the current project construction is
identified, NEON wishes to re-scope this experiment
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE
• Project science et al. – state of the art.. common framework.
• Survey NASA, DOE, IBM processes – same ± 10%.
• Fads: critical chain planning, 6-sigma, etc..
• Tool preferences: +15% to -100% effect… religious debates..
• Scope/budget/schedule/risk/people management +
detailed planning + luck + politics.. (PS formula) Linear…
Observations:
– PS project management framework – solid, but….
– Non-linear, NDEs are common (universal?)
– Efforts to “linearize” projects... Recover from NDEs?
(NSF NDEs - CARMA/ALMA/NEON and others)
27
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE
• Consequences
– Science: failure to launch – decade
– Confused understanding of nature, scope, goals of project
(widespread)
– Mixed NSF, community support for otherwise solid science idea
– Staff confusion, morale, career redirects…
– Dragging community in new direction – many won’t come (ever…)
– (ongoing…)
• Advantages
– Superb people, with strong commitment to the joint vision;
– Few preconceived notions.. low resistance from staff to FPM
– Genuine strong underlying commitment from NSF, forward-looking
community members, change in Administration
– PM: outsider with relevant experience – ignore history, precedent:
28
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKNEON NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE
PS recovering a NDE – dangerous. Significant financial,
marital, professional risk. Analyze situation carefully
Warning: NDE recovery – richly-complex time-variable
problem, ego-saturated, huge external influences –
some parts of solutions transfer, some in whole, some
in part, some don’t…
Warning: Project managers: rarely lie or tell the complete
truth. Reluctant to say “I don’t know”, reward good EV
performance and team efforts, and punish individuality,
aiming at 51%+ decision efficiency…
29
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKLessons learned
Well define your scope and have clear de-scoping options (and up-scoping)
~with clear tradeoffs in respective science that can be achieved
~and respective synergies identified
Plan experiment with expected time and space scales for processes and drivers
Adopt (some) system engineering approaches
Allows for constraining construction budget and define operations budget
Prototype
Identify risks and determine mitigation strategies
Estimate and plan for contingencies!!
Provides a measure to track progress
Facilitates agency support, and cross agency collaborations
Review structure gleans agency support and community engagement
30
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKThe National Ecological Observatory Network is a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation and
managed under cooperative agreement by NEON Inc.
www.neoninc.org
hloescher@neoninc.org
31
October 13-14, 2010 Climate Change Experiments in High La;tude Ecosystems, Fairbanks AKYou can also read
