N O W RAY WHITE REAL-TIME RESIDENTIAL MARKET INSIGHTS 9 MARCH 2021 - Amazon AWS
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04 NEW LISTING SURGE STARTING TO SHOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. 08 WHY ARE WE SEEING STRONG RESULTS NOW? 11 CONSIDERING SELLING? WHY GO TO MARKET NOW? 12 HOW DO WE CREATE THE MOST COMPETITION FOR YOUR PROPERTY? 15 FOR THOSE SEEKING MORTGAGE ADVICE ABOUT RAY WHITE
Dear Property Owner, Our 39th edition of Ray White Now welcomes the second week of real estate trading for March 2021. We have welcomed lower Alert Levels as we enter what is considered one of the most active times for the real estate market, with new properties coming onto the market and sales continuing to remain at a high level. While the previous week had slowed momentum, there have been good numbers of new listings coming to the market and while these are at similar levels to the same time last year, what is noticeable is that we have reached a high point for 2021 with our live listings now above 2,000. On the sales side, the numbers continue to be well above the same time last year and while we passed through a lift of 50 per cent higher, this has somewhat plateaued and returned to a level over 30 per cent currently. We expect with the lower level of restrictive trading to allow auctions to take place across Auckland and all forms of marketing across New Zealand; then both new listings coming onto the market and sales will increase to higher levels. The LVR restrictions come into their first phase this week which means that all borrowers will require higher levels of deposits. This is particularly designed for investors to ensure they are not overly geared in respect of individual properties which means that the deposit requirements for the buyer classification of investors will not only lift in the first phase, but will also lift again on 1 May 2021. Our real-time data enables us to view the current market as it happens. This is of high importance for both buyers and sellers, particularly when they are seeking to understand the depth of the market, current competition, and also the trends in regard to the number of buyers attending auctions. This in itself has become a more active way to market property through auction and has been adopted by one in every two properties that is put to the market through the Ray White Group in New Zealand. The results of this have been a transparency that has been welcomed by buyers and allows the sellers to take account of the depth of the market when making the decision to sell their property. The number of registered buyers and the number of active bidders at each property has risen to be at its highest level in the last 12 months. When we look at our live listings, we still take into consideration the first home buyer and the investor buyer classifications, who don’t necessarily bring property onto the market to replace the demand that has been created within these sectors. This, of course, fluctuates in different areas and is an important factor in the price outcomes for sellers and buyers. Ray White Now is produced in conjunction with real-time data from our 184 offices across New Zealand. Ray White, on an average monthly basis, completes $1.904 billion worth of property transactions and currently manages a portfolio of 19,228 properties through our property management division. Regards Carey Smith Ray White New Zealand Chief Executive
04 VOLUME 39 NEW LISTING SURGE S TA R T I N G TO S H O W I N THE MONTH OF MARCH. R E G I S T E R E D A N D A C T I V E B I D D E R S H I T A N A L L-T I M E H I G H AT R AY W H I T E A U C T I O N S . According to the latest QV House With the re-introduction of Loan- overseas with increasing confidence. Price Index, the average value of to-Value Ratio (LVR) restrictions Will this add pressure to the housing New Zealand residential homes on new mortgage lending, with market. continues to increase and has shown investors required to have a minimum over the last three months a rise of 30 per cent deposit from 1 March When we look at the smaller 6.8 per cent to the end of February. (increasing to 40 per cent from 1 provincial centres, there have been The range for the main regional May) and most owner-occupiers some dramatic increases and in centres showed increases from 2.1 needing a 20 per cent minimum the North Island, Wairoa leads all per cent in Invercargill to a high of deposit, could see a dynamic market provincial centres this month. The 9.4 per cent in Palmerston North. change, with the first home buyer average house price in the Hawke’s The twin Hawke’s Bay cities of Napier having more opportunity together Bay town has increased by almost 17 and Hastings aren’t far behind, with with those who are considering per cent to $371,465 in just three both cities showing quarterly growth upgrading. What effect the LVR months. It’s followed by Ruapehu – of 8.9 per cent. reintroduction will have on investors last month’s leader – on 14.8 per cent is unknown, however, given the growth for the quarter, and South In the main city centres, average current yield and return against what Taranaki in third place at 13.5 per values were up by 6.4 per cent other offerings are available, property cent. in Auckland, 7.9 per cent in the will still remain a strong class of asset. Wellington region, 6.1 per cent in Wairoa also tops the list for annual Christchurch, and 5.6 per cent in While the impacts are not immediately growth over the past 12 months 31.3 Dunedin. known, the recent change in Alert per cent, followed by Whanganui Level restrictions combined with 30.0 per cent and South Wairarapa All of these numbers represent an the consequence of vaccine rollouts 27.7 per cent. increase of 15.9 per cent year-on- and increased confidence that year. An increase from annual growth there is finally an end in sight to Across the provincial centres in of 15.1 per cent last month for the worst effects of the COVID-19 the South Island, Gore is top of residential property. pandemic, may give the ability for the list – and fourth overall across New Zealanders to move home from New Zealand – for quarterly price
05 VOLUME 39 growth. The average house price here has increased by 13.4 per cent to $354,885. Buller 11.2 per cent and Westland 11.1 per cent are second and third respectively. In terms of average house price growth over a 12-month period, only fractions of a percentage point separate Buller 23.9 per cent from Gore 23.8 per cent. A recent example by Core Logic on house prices and their effect on Source: qv.co.nz affordability is in the area that stands 2004, and despite low interest rates, supply of property coming onto the out over a longer, 12-month horizon the share of income required to market is matching the current buyer - Gisborne, with an increase of 30.6 service a typical mortgage is currently appetite however there is a long- per cent since February last year – 23.0 per cent; the highest for more term erosion of the overall portfolio or more than $127,000. Based on than a decade. of the inventory of listings given the a 20 per cent deposit, this means constant buyer demand. According buyers have had to raise at least On the supply side, while sales to realestate.co.nz, the housing stock an extra $25,400 in the past year continue to occur with strong at the end of February 2021 set at alone. In other words, the flipside of momentum it is the area around the 15,829 in comparison to February rapidly rising house prices is a sharp inventory of listings held by the real 2020; down 24.2 per cent. When you decline in affordability, which is likely estate industry across New Zealand put this across the inventory, it gives to progressively weigh on property which puts most of the pressure on New Zealand a long-term average of growth rates. Gisborne’s house price the housing market. Where there 10 weeks worth of property available to income ratio (4.8) and the number still remains a strong depth of buyers in the marketplace. of years to save a deposit (6.4) are given the low interest rates, the at their highest levels since at least “We started our agency four months ago with Ray White and it has been extraordinary. The community support, the real estate market and the activity from buyers and sellers is not only giving both parties more confidence, but the uniqueness of our market is seeing the majority of properties also lift in price through the auction method of marketing.” Shelley Donaldson, Director and Licensee Salesperson of Ray White Gisborne.
06 VOLUME 39 Source: Corelogic.co.nz This simply means that on average included Auckland, Central Otago, this level and that may be having an there is around 7,000 sales per Otago and Gisborne. While there impact on supply depending on the month and this is put against the were a band of markets that had little amount of new property listings and total stock available for buyers. change, in the Wairarapa, Nelson and demand coming into the market. the West Coast new property listings New property listings are a measure declined by more than 10 per cent. The markets under 10 weeks include of new supply and generally add to the Bay of Plenty (8), Waikato (8), the portfolio of stock. More new Inventory of listings shows the Taranaki (9), Hawke’s Bay (8), Nelson listings need to come to the market number of weeks each region has for (8), Manawatu (6), Wairarapa (5), than the amount of property selling stock availability if there were no new Wellington (7) and Canterbury (9). for inventory to build. While across properties coming onto the market. The inventory of listings moves New Zealand there was a marginal lift There is comparison to the long-term towards being a sellers market across in the number of new listings at 1.8 average which is based on the past all areas of New Zealand. per cent, there was a considerable 13 years of seasonally adjusted data. lift in number of sales which saw Our scheduled auctions continue to a balance in February in regard to New Zealand has a national inventory lift and have reached a high for 2021 inventory levels. of 10 weeks worth of stock in with 1,033 properties scheduled comparison to the long-term average for auction, which is 161.3 per cent Overall, there were 10,736 properties of 28 weeks. While 10 weeks is higher than the same time last year. listed nationally and the markets considered to be less than desired, This shows the confidence and to see increases above 10 per cent there are several markets well below transparency around the auction
07 VOLUME 39 method of marketing and how this What is of most interest is the loan has become preferred across many pre approval stage that buyers who centres where buyers can establish are having finance checked and market value against competition approved for potential purchases has while sellers can have the confidence now risen to an extraordinary level that the depth of the buyer pool which is the highest on record for is being influenced by competition the Loan Market Group. A staggering rather than by an established price. 165 per cent higher than the same Added to this the registrations for time last year which would indicate those attending auctions and also that there is a continued build in the bidding have reached a new high market for those who are considering and this shows how auctions have purchasing property across all buyer adapted to becoming the preferred classifications. method of selling across many centres in New Zealand. S C H ED UL ED AU CT IO N S 1,800 # Scheduled Auctions / 28 days 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 LOAN PRE-APPROVALS 2,000 # Loan Pre-approvals / 28 days 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
08 VOLUME 39 WHY ARE WE SEEING S T R O N G R E S U LT S N O W ? Real estate markets are driven by a significant role in establishing favourable for sellers. Conversely, several factors; however, the two market conditions that favour when supply is high and demand is basic fundamentals of supply (the sellers or buyers. low, conditions are favourable for number of total properties for sale) buyers. and demand (the number of buyers In general terms, when supply is low active in the marketplace) play and demand is high conditions are So what are we seeing now? Supply We can accurately report on the number of new listings coming to the market through our real-time Pulse data, and as we enter the second week of March, the number of new listings coming to market is up 7.67 per cent when compared to the same period last year with a total of 2,246 live listings. Ray White nationally had the highest number of listings of any real estate brand for the month of February. Chart 1: 3,500 Live listings 3,000 # Live Listings / 28 days 2,500 This chart shows the total 2,000 number of live listings are up 1,500 7.67 per cent compared to the 1,000 same time last year. 500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
09 VOLUME 39 Demand There are several considerations we day clearance rate is currently 87.4 So what factors are continuing to take into account when looking at per cent with an average of 4.6 create confidence in the market? the number of potential buyers in the registered bidders. The long-term forecast of low market. The number of buyers looking interest rates and affordability around online for property, the number of A feature of the auction market at the purchasing of property. buyers who enquire on properties present is the prevalence of auction for sale, the bidding activity we see dates being brought forward. This The number of first home buyers each week across our auctions, and is a scenario that unfolds when an coming into the market is increasing the number of people actively gaining acceptable unconditional offer is significantly as they take their pre-approval for finance to purchase made on a property prior to the opportunity to purchase at interest a property which for the loan market auction date. The offer becomes rates that are the lowest on record, group is up a 165 per cent on last year. the reserve price which is disclosed starting from 1.99 per cent. This, at the beginning of the auction and coupled with the fact that banks are The high level of demand is offers above that level are invited. now testing serviceability at lower underpinned by the number of active Last week, 17.89 per cent of property levels, means buyers can stretch buyers and registered bidders which, offered for sale by auction with further for a home and subsequently when compared to previous years, Ray White sold prior to the vendors are seeing increased levels are at record levels. Our auction scheduled auction date. of competition. Chart 2: 9 9 8 8 Bidding by month 7 7 6 # / 28 days 6 # / 28 days This chart illustrates the 5 5 average number of registered 4 4 3 bidders per auction has 3 2 2 increased throughout 2020 and 1 1 continued into 2021. Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Mar Apr Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Feb Avg. Active Bidders per Auction Avg. Reg. Bidders per Auction Chart 3: Appraisals 6,000 # Appraisals / 28 days 5,000 This chart compares the 4,000 number of appraisals Ray White 3,000 salespeople have made over the 2,000 2019, 2020 and 2021 calendar year. Showing a significant lift in 1,000 appraisals since the beginning of Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2021. 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
10 VOLUME 39 So what factors are contributing to • Interest rates are a driver settles over NZ$650 million in buyer confidence? of home affordability and in loans per month. Pre-approvals Interest rates continue to underpin many areas, while prices have are indicative loan approvals purchasers buying power and today risen in the last 12 months, obtained by buyers before they interest rates are at record low levels, corresponding interest rates have buy a property to enable them to advertised from 1.99 per cent fixed reduced. bid confidently. for one year with the OCR remaining • Banks and lenders remain • Record levels of government at 0.25 per cent since 16 March very supportive of lending for stimulus are part of the 2020. residential property. The chart on supporting reason behind a high • Importantly, the consensus page 7 shows the monthly home proportion of buyer sentiment. among economists is that they loan pre-approvals recorded • General confidence in a well- will remain at these low levels for by the Loan Market Group, performing economy, with the the foreseeable future. which is our loan brokerage exception of some sectors such partner and New Zealand’s as tourism. largest independent broker that What are LVR restrictions and are we seeing an impact? Restrictions on loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) are temporary limits on banks to reduce the amount of low-deposit mortgage lending. Currently Investor Loans 30 per Source: rbnz.govt.nz - LVR restrictions at a glance cent deposit / 5 per cent low deposit lending. LVR lending restrictions property that the borrower lives in It is likely too early to tell, but we are tighter for loans secured by or uses as a holiday house. High- are yet to see any impact of the investment property, in response LVR loans are defined as those loans reintroduction of restrictions on loan- to the growing housing market that are more than 80 per cent of to-value ratios (LVRs) as introduced risks in that area. High-LVR loans in the property’s value (20 per cent 1 March 2021 by the Reserve Bank this category are those loans that deposit). High-LVR loans can make up of New Zealand. are more than 70 per cent of the no more than 20 per cent of a bank’s property’s value (30 per cent deposit). total new lending in this category. From 1 May 2021 LVR restrictions High-LVR loans can make up no more for investors will be further raised than 5 per cent of a bank’s total new There are some exemptions that to a maximum of 5 per cent of a lending in this category. apply: bank’s total new lending in this • New building exemption category, at LVRs above 60 percent Owner-Occupier Loans 20 per cent • Remediation exemption of the property’s value (40 per cent deposit / 20 per cent low deposit • Welcome home loans deposit). lending. This is borrowing secured • Bridging loans with a mortgage against residential • Refinancing
11 VOLUME 39 CO NSID E RING S E LLI NG? WHY GO TO MARKET NOW? Restrictions with regard to viewing that this will continue. What we Economists believe the next 12 property and attending auctions last do acknowledge though is that the months may hold: week had been in place with stricter conditions we are experiencing measures in Auckland, but, as has now were unpredicted by almost all • Shipping difficulties been seen previously, this did little commentators and economists and in • Roll-out of COVID-19 vaccine to suppress the appetite of buyers addition to this, the property market • Potential further restrictions on of residential property. Last week is one of cycles and at some point, residential property we saw 179 properties offered for conditions will change again. • Rising cost of household goods sale by way of auction, and of these, • The potential of low mortgage a clearance rate of 87.4 percent was The factors contributing to the rates rising achieved. Diving deeper into this buoyancy of the market at present • Increasing levels of consents data, we can see that on average are the low cost of borrowing, and construction for residential property there were 4.6 registered and 3.3 increased levels of demand, • More expats returning home active bidders per property. So why comparatively low supply, demand does this level of activity continue, for rental properties, and the long- • Borders remaining closed even with the relative uncertainty term performance of real estate • Weak global economy around other parts of the economy? as an asset class generally. Whilst • Potential re-emergence of most of these factors are likely to Covid-19 in the community With auctions in Auckland remain stable; as we saw last year, • No trans-tasman ‘travel bubble’. particularly moving to online and an unexpected event at a national remote platforms there has been or international level can influence Reflecting upon the market a year very little disruption in timelines, market confidence and the physical ago, there was much uncertainty salespeople have been quick to ability to transact. In addition to as we experienced lockdowns and adapt and both buyers and sellers this, the LVR restrictions for those restrictions on a scale none of us had seen before. The predictions are becoming more accustomed purchasing residential property as an for the market were in most cases, to transacting property remotely. investment have just been increased dire. What the past 12 months has What this has highlighted for us is, and investors will need 30 per cent taught us is that predicting what the regardless of the relative uncertainty deposit to be able to borrow in these market will do in these times remains in many other aspects, residential circumstances. difficult. Many are predicting prices to property at present remains stable continue to increase, but this should and secure. There are several factors in the be cautioned with the fact that many wider economy that are supporting of these people also predicted it to The property market right across confidence at present, but it is also fall significantly last year. What we New Zealand over the past few important to be aware of potential do have certainty around, is that right months has been very robust and factors that could influence market now, if you are considering selling, most commentators are suggesting activity this year. the conditions are very favourable.
12 VOLUME 39 H OW DO W E C RE ATE TH E MOST C O M PET IT IO N F OR YOUR PROPERT Y ? 1. MARKETI NG EXPOSUR E The most innovative marketing real In 2020, the Ray White Group passed Tender and Exclusive Listing estate business in New Zealand. through 21 per cent market share in Our approach to tender and exclusive New Zealand residential sales. is aligned with our marketing Our enviable position comes from methods of creating competitive an unwavering commitment to In February 2021, Ray White situations between buyers to create marketing and auctions - whether achieved record sales volumes in the best outcomes for our vendor that be safely on-site or in-room. market turnover and record sales clients. volumes in market numbers, a Ray White New Zealand currently has personal best for the month of 2,246 live listings, with the number February. of sales up 26.36 per cent year-on- year. Last week, Ray White New Zealand had 285 properties scheduled to go In January and February 2021, to auction (an increase of 74.8 per Ray White achieved the highest cent compared to the saem dates last listing months of property across year), leading to a strong auction day New Zealand. clearance rate of 87.4 per cent - an increase of 11.74 per cent. We have never lost faith in the marketing as we believe it enables would prefer to sell quietly, or off- value we can bring our vendors in a us to maximise competition and market, and while this is not a normal challenging market through effective clearly illustrate your intent to sell recommendation, we welcome marketing. If you choose to sell, we and therefore attract genuine buyers. discussion on all opportunities to will be suggesting an investment in We appreciate that some people take your property to the market.
13 VOLUME 39 2. G ENERATI NG BUY ER EN Q UI RY Being one of the largest real estate in the market today. Combine of property purchasers come from groups in the country has direct our relationships with our use of neighbours and their friends. advantages for our sellers. Our technology, we can engage with ability to target the largest pool buyers on a level that will ensure we Ray White Concierge can of buyers within a campaign is a can find the premium buyer for your communicate to property owners strength which you can be confident property. in surrounding streets, positioning will assist us in delivering the best your property to ensure that it is possible result for you. In the current In addition to our ability to target at the centre of our communities’ market conditions, it’s critical to broad audiences, Ray White attention. With our dedicated team target the broadest possible audience Concierge, our communication of 100+ Ray White Concierge and to be as efficient as possible in specialists, unique to Ray White, can specialists, in coordination with tailoring appropriate messaging to target one of the most influential our appointed agent, can deliver a your potential buyers. After all, our audiences, our local communities. layered community communication focus is to seek out the buyer for Our 119 years of real estate program including telephone calls, your property that will pay more than experience has enabled us to SMS and email, ensuring that the most everyone else. understand that a catalyst for influential people are alerted early to creating competition is leveraging the the sale of your property. We do this by having the greatest local community and our data shows number of relationships with buyers that in some cases, up to 60 per cent 80k Chart 4: # Online Enquiries / 28 days 70k Online enquiries 60k 50k This chart compares the 40k number of online enquiries 30k made through Ray White 20k websites over the 2019, 2020 10k and 2021 calendar years. Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 33.78% Online enquiries The number of online enquiries made through Ray White websites are 33.78 per cent above levels at the same time last year.
14 VOLUME 39 3. U NRIVALL E D BRAND PR ES EN C E A N D MEDI A P RO FI L E As Australasia’s largest real estate number of listings on oneroof.co.nz, Our experienced in-house journalists group, we are supported by a realestate. co.nz and trademe.co.nz/ can get your property the exposure dedicated and highly experienced property - is also huge. that money can’t buy. team of newshounds in our PR team who work seven days a week. To put a price on the power of our When a home is listed with The team excels at winning “earned media coverage, in February, the Ray White, our clients are introduced media”, the exposure that money Ray White Group as a whole to the national public relations cannot buy, it must be earned. achieved more than NZ$47.097 service; a team that’s plugged into million worth of earned media the New Zealand media and has Our media exposure dominates all mentions in print, online, radio and the sole focus of achieving more other brands in terms of publicity TV, according to iSentia, our media exposure for the properties we sell, - which is the sweet spot. Our intelligence agency. That’s free to the audience that matters most. profile in newspaper advertising publicity for the group and all its and editorials along with a large members. 4 . D EEP DATA S ET In times of uncertainty property data and proof points has never been information available and have the sellers need facts, not media more important for good decision experience to help you analyse speculation, to be able to create making. relevant data to help you make the informed decisions. Whether that be right decision. a decision to list your property on the As the most successful real estate market or to be in touch with real-time group in Australasia, we have access market conditions. The reliance on to the largest pool of up to date In February, the Ray White Group as a whole achieved more than NZ$47.097 million worth of earned media.
15 VOLUME 39 FOR THOSE SEEKING MORTGAGE ADVICE Loan Market, New Zealand’s multi- will help navigate the options to We are currently sitting on over awarding winning mortgage group, ensure buyers are approved to their NZ$2 billion of pre-approved buyers has been helping Kiwis with their maximum buying power. across New Zealand. This pool of financial goals for over 26 years pre-approved buyers is ready to make (and counting). In these trying times Banks are taking the Covid-19 offers with no finance clause required brokers have been supporting clients outbreak as an opportunity to and speaks to the strength of to understand their options and help dramatically reduce their footprint the market for vendors looking to sell navigate the complex banking world permanently. Many Kiwis are now now. and ensure everyone can get access finding it very difficult to contact to a competitive deal when it comes a banker to facilitate mortgage Lastly, if you are looking to buy to loans. applications. currently you must get your mortgage application into us as soon as While interest rates are at “all-time” At Loan Market we are 100 per cent possible. The banking system is lows now well below 2 per cent across digitally enabled and able to assist experiencing lengthy delays as they all parts of the interest rate curve, right through all levels of lockdown. deploy extra resources into our access to credit is tight, as such, advice Covid-19 does not prevent us from channel to cope with the volume. is essential. Loan Market has access providing advice and solutions to the Don’t sit on your hands, contact your to New Zealand’s widest range of buyers and sellers of real estate at Loan Market adviser now. banks and lenders you know and trust. Ray White. Talking to our Loan Market advisers loanmarket.co.nz AB OUT RAY WHITE Ray White is a fourth-generation up 8.6 per cent year on year, worth breadth of Australasia’s largest real family owned and led business. It of property. Every day, Ray White estate group brings unrivalled value was established in 1902 in the small helps 36 buyers find their home to our customers. A group that has Queensland country town of Crow’s across New Zealand. thrived through many periods of Nest and has grown into Australasia’s volatility, and one that will provide the most successful real estate business, Ray White today spans residential, strongest level of support to enable with more than 1,000 franchised commercial, and rural property as its customers to make the best real offices across New Zealand, Australia, well as marine and other specialist estate decisions. Indonesia, and Hong Kong. Last fiscal businesses. Now more than ever, year, Ray White sold $44.22 billion, the depth of experience and the
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