Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet - May 2021 - MBIE
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Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet — May 2021 This monthly fact sheet summarises highlights from the latest labour market informa on, including changes since the start of the COVID-19 Alert Levels. It focusses on the most recent changes and complements MBIE’s Labour Market Sta s cs Snapshot1 , which is produced every quarter and uses tradi onal labour market official sta s cs. For more detail about sectors and regions, see fact sheets available at MBIE’s COVID-19 economic data2 . The Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet will next be updated on 17 June 2021. Overview Headline sta s cs Measures Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Employment 2,749,500 2,725,800 2,707,000 2,747,800 2,758,000 — Paid Employee or Employer 2,395,300 2,351,900 2,343,000 2,380,000 2,372,400 — Self-employed 330,300 346,300 336,900 343,900 355,000 Employment Rate 67.7% 67.1% 66.5% 66.8% 67.1% Par cipa on Rate 70.7% 69.9% 70.2% 70.2% 70.4% Underu lisa on 310,000 355,000 391,000 351,000 366,000 — Unemployment 122,000 115,000 151,000 140,000 135,000 — Underemployment 93,000 127,000 134,000 116,000 124,000 — Poten al Labour Force 95,000 114,000 106,000 95,000 107,000 Underu lisa on Rate 10.5% 12.0% 13.1% 11.8% 12.2% Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% Not in the Labour Force 1,188,000 1,226,000 1,220,000 1,218,000 1,215,000 Youth Not in Employment, Educa on or Training (NEET) 93,000 83,000 82,000 81,000 85,000 NEET Rate 14.1% 12.6% 12.5% 12.4% 13.1% Average Weekly Hours Paid (per FTE) 38.57 38.32 38.12 38.18 38.30 All measures are from the Household Labour Force Survey except for average hours worked, which is from the Quarterly Employment Survey. Labour Market Sta s cs, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 04/08/2021) The recent story While the effects of economic restric ons related to COVID-19 con nue to be felt, New Zealand’s labour market has held up be er than expected, although it remains weaker than pre-COVID-19 levels. Headline labour market measures generally improved in the March 2021 quarter, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7 per cent and the par cipa on rate increasing slightly to 70.4 per cent as employment grew by 15,000 (seasonally adjusted) people over the quarter. However the gains have been uneven, with border closures con nuing to have mixed effects for industries and regions. During April 2020, the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support Work-Ready benefits increased markedly and filled jobs fell by a record 1.6 per cent. From May onwards the number of filled jobs rebounded and monthly changes are now within usual historical pa erns, although annual growth remains below that of recent years. November 2020 was the first me since the Global Financial Crisis that the annual change in filled job numbers has been nega ve. It is likely that the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy supported employment levels by allowing businesses to keep paying their staff during the Alert Level restric ons. Use of the original Wage Subsidy peaked in June 2020 and covered 1.65 million unique jobs; use of the Wage Subsidy Extension peaked in July 2020 and covered 587,000 unique jobs; and use of the Resurgence Wage Subsidy peaked in September 2020 and covered 291,000 unique jobs. As of the start of May 2021, the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy March 2021 was covering 170,000 unique jobs. The number of main benefit recipients has fallen slightly in the last two months (in line with historical pa erns), and the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment has wrapped up, with the last payments made in the week ending 5 February 2021. The number of adver sed job vacancies has grown very strongly (up 340 per cent) on an annual basis, recovering from a large drop in April to May 2020. 1 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/employment-and-skills/labour-market-reports-data-and-analysis/labour-market-statistics-snapshot/ 2 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/economic-development/covid-19-data-resources/covid-19-economic-data/ V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 1 Generated on 2021-05-18
Filled jobs Stats NZ’s Monthly Employment Indicators (MEIs) count filled jobs, using employer payroll filing tax data. These sta s cs are a useful indicator to supplement the official Labour Market Sta s cs, although they do not count the self-employed, they do not necessarily represent full- me or permanent jobs, and recent results can be subject to fluctua ons due to different employers’ payroll schedules. Annual percentage change in the number of filled jobs 4% Annual change 2% 0% −2% −4% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021) Monthly percentage change in the number of filled jobs, seasonally adjusted Monthly change 1% 0% −1% 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021) Filled jobs by age group 65 and over 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 Age Group 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 −2% 0% 2% 4% 0 100,000 200,000 Annual change Number of filled jobs Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021) V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 2 Generated on 2021-05-18
Filled jobs by industry Electricity, gas, water & waste services Construction Public administration & safety Financial & insurance services Health care & social assistance Other services Professional, scientific & technical services Education & training Agriculture, forestry & fishing Retail trade Manufacturing Information media & telecommunications Rental, hiring & real estate services Wholesale trade Accommodation & food services Arts & recreation services Administrative & support services Mining Transport, postal & warehousing −5% 0% 5% 0 100,000 200,000 Annual change Number of filled jobs Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021) Filled jobs by region Gisborne Bay of Plenty Waikato Manawatū-Whanganui Wellington Northland Taranaki Hawke's Bay West Coast Tasman Nelson Canterbury Auckland Southland Marlborough Otago -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 Annual change Number of filled jobs Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021) V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 3 Generated on 2021-05-18
Benefit Recipients Benefits are primarily a measure of how many people are receiving income support rather than a measure of unemployment, but since 2008 the number of Jobseeker Support recipients has mostly tracked in line with the number of unemployed individuals. Measuring all working-age main benefits covers addi onal circumstances in which someone could need extra income and is a be er proxy for the underu lisa on rate, which is a more useful measure of “slack” in the labour market than unemployment alone. Number of main benefit recipients 400,000 Number of people 300,000 Year 200,000 2019 100,000 2020 0 2021 January February March April May June July August September October November December Month Working-age main benefits, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday) Weekly new recipients and cancellations of Jobseeker Support Number of people Legend 7,500 Cancellations 5,000 New recipients 2,500 0 February March April May June July August September October NovemberDecemberJanuary FebruaryMarch April May Month Working-age main benefits, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday) Jobseeker benefit recipients by region Northland Gisborne Bay of Plenty West Coast Waikato Manawatū-Whanganui Taranaki Hawke's Bay Auckland Wellington Nelson Canterbury Tasman Southland Marlborough Otago 0% 2.5% 5% 7.5% 10% -0.5% -0.25% 0% 0.25% 0.5% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Percentage of the population Annual percentage point change Number of recipients (aged 18 to 64) Working-age main benefits, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday) V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 4 Generated on 2021-05-18
Wage Subsidy The COVID-19 Wage Subsidy and Leave Payment Scheme was introduced to assist businesses in paying their staff, allowing businesses to claim $585.80 per week per full- me employee ($350 per part- me employee) for up to 12 weeks. The Wage Subsidy Extension scheme was introduced on 10 June 2020, covering jobs for up to 8 weeks, and a Resurgence Wage Subsidy payment was available for the last two weeks in August when Auckland was placed at Alert Level 3 and the rest of the country moved back into Alert Level 2. Data for the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy March 2021 is now available. This payment was introduced a er the Alert Level changes on 28 February 2021, when Auckland was placed at Alert Level 3 and the rest of the country moved back into Alert Level 2. Number of jobs supported by wage subsidy schemes Wage subsidy 1,600,000 schemes Original Extension 1,200,000 Resurgence Jobs supported March 2021 800,000 400,000 0 June September December March Income Support and Wage Subsidy Weekly Update, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday) Proportion of jobs supported by wage subsidy schemes Auckland Gender Male Female Canterbury Otago Tasman 60 and over Nelson Northland West Coast 50 to 59 Region Waikato Age group Bay of Plenty Southland 40 to 49 Marlborough Taranaki 30 to 39 Hawke's Bay Manawatū-Whanganui Wellington 16 to 29 Gisborne 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% Percentage of jobs supported Percentage of jobs supported COVID-19 evidence,3 MSD (Data as at 24/07/20) 3 https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/covid-19-evidence.html V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 5 Generated on 2021-05-18
Job Vacancies The number of jobs adver sed online on major job boards can be used as a proxy for job vacancies, a key indicator of both labour demand and economic change. However, because of different hiring prac ces and changes in the rate of worker churn within industries, the rela onship between online job adver sements and labour demand is complex. The large annual growth in jobs adver sed in April 2021 is due to this figure being compared to April 2020, when job adver sing was strongly affected by the Alert Level 4 lockdown. Annual change in online job advertising 300% Annual change 200% 100% 0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year Jobs Online, MBIE (Data to April 2021, next release 14/06/2021) Annual change in online job advertising by occupation, latest three months February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 Sales Clerical & administration Trades & technicians Managers Machinery drivers Labourers Community & personal services Professionals 0% 200% 400% 600% 0% 200% 400% 600% 0% 200% 400% 600% Annual change Jobs Online, MBIE (Data to April 2021, next release 14/06/2021) Annual change in online job advertising by region, latest three months February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 South Island − Other Canterbury Auckland North Island − Other Wellington 0% 100% 200% 300% 0% 100% 200% 300% 0% 100% 200% 300% Annual change Jobs Online, MBIE (Data to April 2021, next release 14/06/2021) V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 6 Generated on 2021-05-18
Data sources Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) | Stats Income Support and Wage Subsidy Weekly NZ Update | Ministry of Social Development The HLFS is a na onwide, quarterly survey of households run by Stats NZ. It is the (MSD) official measure of employment and unemployment in New Zealand. Data from the HLFS is used as an indicator of the overall health of the economy, par cularly The Income Support and Wage Subsidy Weekly Update provides an overview of the unemployment rate. HLFS data is also used to compare labour force variables income support, including COVID-19 Income Relief Payment data. MSD’s COVID- across demographic characteris cs. 19 repor ng is available at: https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/ publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/index.html Monthly Employment Indicator (MEI) | Stats Jobs Online | Ministry of Business, Innova- NZ on and Employment (MBIE) The MEI series from Stats NZ provides an early indica on of changes in the labour market. These indicators use a combina on of data from two different Inland Rev- Jobs Online is a regular data series published quarterly by MBIE that mea- enue sources: the Employer Monthly Schedule (EMS) and payday filing. This data sures changes in online job adver sements from four internet job boards — is used to produce the filled jobs and gross earnings indicator series, published four Seek, Trade Me Jobs, Educa on Gaze e and Kiwi Health Jobs. A monthly to five weeks a er the end of the reference month. series is available at https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/ employment-and-skills/labour-market-reports-data-and-analysis/jobs-online/ Monthly Benefits Update | Ministry of Social #jobs-online-monthly-data-release Development (MSD) The Monthly Benefits Update from MSD provides an overview of benefit and sup- plementary assistance data. The report presents monthly benefit receipt numbers, and the accompanying data file provides addi onal informa on and breakdowns. Previous edi ons The Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet brings together the latest available data and surveys. July’s edi on4 included findings from the Ministry of Health’s COVID-19 Health and Wellbeing Survey, the Ministry of Social Development’s Wage Subsidy Survey and Auckland Tourism, Events and Economic Development’s (ATEED) COVID-19 Business Survey. August’s edi on5 included findings from Victoria University’s Life in Lockdown survey. Contact us For further informa on on the data contained in this fact sheet, please email us: LabourMarketInsights@mbie.govt.nz. 4 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/11556-monthly-labour-market-fact-sheet-july-2020 5 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/11637-monthly-labour-market-fact-sheet-august-2020 V1.0.0 (aa9528b) 7 Generated on 2021-05-18
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