Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet - May 2021 - MBIE

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Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet — May 2021

This monthly fact sheet summarises highlights from the latest labour market informa on, including changes since the start of the
COVID-19 Alert Levels. It focusses on the most recent changes and complements MBIE’s Labour Market Sta s cs Snapshot1 , which is
produced every quarter and uses tradi onal labour market official sta s cs. For more detail about sectors and regions, see fact sheets
available at MBIE’s COVID-19 economic data2 .
The Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet will next be updated on 17 June 2021.

Overview
Headline sta s cs
       Measures                                                              Mar-20         Jun-20         Sep-20         Dec-20         Mar-21
       Employment                                                         2,749,500      2,725,800      2,707,000      2,747,800      2,758,000
       — Paid Employee or Employer                                        2,395,300      2,351,900      2,343,000      2,380,000      2,372,400
       — Self-employed                                                      330,300        346,300        336,900        343,900        355,000
       Employment Rate                                                        67.7%          67.1%          66.5%          66.8%          67.1%
       Par cipa on Rate                                                       70.7%          69.9%          70.2%          70.2%          70.4%
       Underu lisa on                                                       310,000        355,000        391,000        351,000        366,000
       — Unemployment                                                       122,000        115,000        151,000        140,000        135,000
       — Underemployment                                                     93,000        127,000        134,000        116,000        124,000
       — Poten al Labour Force                                               95,000        114,000        106,000         95,000        107,000
       Underu lisa on Rate                                                    10.5%          12.0%          13.1%          11.8%          12.2%
       Unemployment Rate                                                       4.3%           4.0%           5.2%           4.9%           4.7%
       Not in the Labour Force                                            1,188,000      1,226,000      1,220,000      1,218,000      1,215,000
       Youth Not in Employment, Educa on or Training (NEET)                  93,000         83,000         82,000         81,000         85,000
       NEET Rate                                                              14.1%          12.6%          12.5%          12.4%          13.1%
       Average Weekly Hours Paid (per FTE)                                    38.57          38.32          38.12          38.18          38.30

All measures are from the Household Labour Force Survey except for average hours worked, which is from the Quarterly Employment
Survey. Labour Market Sta s cs, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 04/08/2021)

The recent story
While the effects of economic restric ons related to COVID-19 con nue to be felt, New Zealand’s labour market has held up be er
than expected, although it remains weaker than pre-COVID-19 levels. Headline labour market measures generally improved in the
March 2021 quarter, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7 per cent and the par cipa on rate increasing slightly to 70.4 per cent as
employment grew by 15,000 (seasonally adjusted) people over the quarter. However the gains have been uneven, with border closures
con nuing to have mixed effects for industries and regions.
During April 2020, the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support Work-Ready benefits increased markedly and filled jobs fell by
a record 1.6 per cent. From May onwards the number of filled jobs rebounded and monthly changes are now within usual historical
pa erns, although annual growth remains below that of recent years. November 2020 was the first me since the Global Financial
Crisis that the annual change in filled job numbers has been nega ve.
It is likely that the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy supported employment levels by allowing businesses to keep paying their staff during the
Alert Level restric ons. Use of the original Wage Subsidy peaked in June 2020 and covered 1.65 million unique jobs; use of the Wage
Subsidy Extension peaked in July 2020 and covered 587,000 unique jobs; and use of the Resurgence Wage Subsidy peaked in September
2020 and covered 291,000 unique jobs. As of the start of May 2021, the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy March 2021 was covering 170,000
unique jobs.
The number of main benefit recipients has fallen slightly in the last two months (in line with historical pa erns), and the COVID-19
Income Relief Payment has wrapped up, with the last payments made in the week ending 5 February 2021. The number of adver sed
job vacancies has grown very strongly (up 340 per cent) on an annual basis, recovering from a large drop in April to May 2020.

  1 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/employment-and-skills/labour-market-reports-data-and-analysis/labour-market-statistics-snapshot/
  2 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/economic-development/covid-19-data-resources/covid-19-economic-data/

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Filled jobs
Stats NZ’s Monthly Employment Indicators (MEIs) count filled jobs, using employer payroll filing tax data. These sta s cs are a useful
indicator to supplement the official Labour Market Sta s cs, although they do not count the self-employed, they do not necessarily
represent full- me or permanent jobs, and recent results can be subject to fluctua ons due to different employers’ payroll schedules.

                        Annual percentage change in the number of filled jobs

                   4%
 Annual change

                   2%

                   0%

                  −2%

                  −4%
                                2002     2004    2006     2008          2010        2012   2014        2016      2018      2020
                                                                             Year
Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021)

                        Monthly percentage change in the number of filled jobs, seasonally adjusted
 Monthly change

                   1%

                   0%

                  −1%

                                       2018                      2019                       2020                           2021
                                                                             Year
Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021)

                                                         Filled jobs by age group
                  65 and over
                     60 to 64
                     55 to 59
                     50 to 54
 Age Group

                     45 to 49
                     40 to 44
                     35 to 39
                     30 to 34
                     25 to 29
                     20 to 24
                     15 to 19
                                          −2%       0%             2%               4% 0           100,000       200,000
                                                Annual change                                     Number of filled jobs
Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021)

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Filled jobs by industry
     Electricity, gas, water & waste services
                                  Construction
               Public administration & safety
              Financial & insurance services
             Health care & social assistance
                                 Other services
 Professional, scientific & technical services
                          Education & training
               Agriculture, forestry & fishing
                                   Retail trade
                                 Manufacturing
   Information media & telecommunications
        Rental, hiring & real estate services
                             Wholesale trade
            Accommodation & food services
                  Arts & recreation services
           Administrative & support services
                                        Mining
            Transport, postal & warehousing

                                                          −5%           0%          5%   0           100,000       200,000
                                                                Annual change                      Number of filled jobs
Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021)

                                                           Filled jobs by region
              Gisborne

          Bay of Plenty

               Waikato

 Manawatū-Whanganui

             Wellington

              Northland

               Taranaki

           Hawke's Bay

            West Coast

               Tasman

                 Nelson

            Canterbury

              Auckland

             Southland

           Marlborough

                 Otago

                           -2%          -1%          0%         1%         2%       0    200,000      400,000    600,000
                                                  Annual change                              Number of filled jobs
Monthly Employment Indicator - Filled Job Series, Stats NZ (Data to March 2021, next release on 28/05/2021)

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Benefit Recipients
Benefits are primarily a measure of how many people are receiving income support rather than a measure of unemployment, but since
2008 the number of Jobseeker Support recipients has mostly tracked in line with the number of unemployed individuals. Measuring
all working-age main benefits covers addi onal circumstances in which someone could need extra income and is a be er proxy for the
underu lisa on rate, which is a more useful measure of “slack” in the labour market than unemployment alone.

                                 Number of main benefit recipients
                    400,000
 Number of people

                    300,000
                                                                                                                                              Year
                    200,000
                                                                                                                                                     2019
                    100,000                                                                                                                          2020

                             0                                                                                                                       2021
                                 January      February   March        April          May        June          July        August     September October      November    December
                                                                                                        Month
Working-age main benefits, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday)

                             Weekly new recipients and cancellations of Jobseeker Support
 Number of people

                                                                                                                                             Legend
                    7,500
                                                                                                                                                   Cancellations
                    5,000                                                                                                                          New recipients

                    2,500

                       0
                                      February March     April    May         June     July    August       September
                                                                                                                    October NovemberDecemberJanuary FebruaryMarch      April   May
                                                                                                       Month
Working-age main benefits, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday)

                                                                        Jobseeker benefit recipients by region
                                 Northland
                                  Gisborne
                            Bay of Plenty
                             West Coast
                                   Waikato
 Manawatū-Whanganui
                                  Taranaki
                            Hawke's Bay
                                  Auckland
                                 Wellington
                                    Nelson
                              Canterbury
                                   Tasman
                                 Southland
                            Marlborough
                                     Otago
                                           0%       2.5%         5%     7.5%         10%          -0.5% -0.25%         0%     0.25% 0.5% 0           20,000      40,000        60,000
                                              Percentage of the population                    Annual percentage point change                       Number of recipients
                                                    (aged 18 to 64)
Working-age main benefits, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday)

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Wage Subsidy
The COVID-19 Wage Subsidy and Leave Payment Scheme was introduced to assist businesses in paying their staff, allowing businesses
to claim $585.80 per week per full- me employee ($350 per part- me employee) for up to 12 weeks. The Wage Subsidy Extension
scheme was introduced on 10 June 2020, covering jobs for up to 8 weeks, and a Resurgence Wage Subsidy payment was available for
the last two weeks in August when Auckland was placed at Alert Level 3 and the rest of the country moved back into Alert Level 2.
Data for the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy March 2021 is now available. This payment was introduced a er the Alert Level changes on 28
February 2021, when Auckland was placed at Alert Level 3 and the rest of the country moved back into Alert Level 2.

                              Number of jobs supported by wage subsidy schemes
                                                                                                                                  Wage subsidy
                  1,600,000                                                                                                       schemes
                                                                                                                                     Original
                                                                                                                                     Extension

                  1,200,000                                                                                                          Resurgence
 Jobs supported

                                                                                                                                     March 2021

                   800,000

                   400,000

                         0
                                                June                      September                              December              March

Income Support and Wage Subsidy Weekly Update, MSD (Data to 07/05/2021, released every Friday)

                                               Proportion of jobs supported by wage subsidy schemes
                                Auckland
                                                                                                                       Gender        Male        Female
                              Canterbury
                                  Otago
                                 Tasman
                                                                                                   60 and over
                                 Nelson
                               Northland
                              West Coast                                                              50 to 59
Region

                                 Waikato
                                                                                       Age group

                          Bay of Plenty
                               Southland                                                              40 to 49
                          Marlborough
                                Taranaki
                                                                                                      30 to 39
                          Hawke's Bay
                  Manawatū-Whanganui
                              Wellington                                                              16 to 29
                                Gisborne
                                       0%        20%         40%           60%                               0%             20%         40%           60%
                                            Percentage of jobs supported                                               Percentage of jobs supported
COVID-19 evidence,3 MSD (Data as at 24/07/20)

         3 https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/covid-19-evidence.html

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Job Vacancies
The number of jobs adver sed online on major job boards can be used as a proxy for job vacancies, a key indicator of both labour
demand and economic change. However, because of different hiring prac ces and changes in the rate of worker churn within industries,
the rela onship between online job adver sements and labour demand is complex.
The large annual growth in jobs adver sed in April 2021 is due to this figure being compared to April 2020, when job adver sing was
strongly affected by the Alert Level 4 lockdown.

                        Annual change in online job advertising

                 300%
 Annual change

                 200%

                 100%

                  0%

                                       2010               2012                  2014              2016               2018                 2020
                                                                                       Year
Jobs Online, MBIE (Data to April 2021, next release 14/06/2021)

                                                 Annual change in online job advertising by occupation, latest three months
                                                         February 2021                        March 2021                          April 2021

                                        Sales

                   Clerical & administration

                         Trades & technicians

                                     Managers

                           Machinery drivers

                                     Labourers

 Community & personal services

                                Professionals

                                              0%      200%       400%    600%     0%      200%    400%      600%     0%     200%      400%       600%
                                                                                           Annual change
Jobs Online, MBIE (Data to April 2021, next release 14/06/2021)

                                     Annual change in online job advertising by region, latest three months
                                                 February 2021                            March 2021                             April 2021

 South Island − Other

                        Canterbury

                         Auckland

  North Island − Other

                        Wellington

                                  0%        100%      200%       300%     0%       100%       200%       300%   0%        100%      200%       300%
                                                                                       Annual change
Jobs Online, MBIE (Data to April 2021, next release 14/06/2021)

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Data sources

Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) | Stats Income Support and Wage Subsidy Weekly
NZ                                                                                 Update | Ministry of Social Development
The HLFS is a na onwide, quarterly survey of households run by Stats NZ. It is the (MSD)
official measure of employment and unemployment in New Zealand. Data from
the HLFS is used as an indicator of the overall health of the economy, par cularly          The Income Support and Wage Subsidy Weekly Update provides an overview of
the unemployment rate. HLFS data is also used to compare labour force variables             income support, including COVID-19 Income Relief Payment data. MSD’s COVID-
across demographic characteris cs.                                                          19 repor ng is available at: https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/
                                                                                            publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/index.html
Monthly Employment Indicator (MEI) | Stats
                                           Jobs Online | Ministry of Business, Innova-
NZ
                                            on and Employment (MBIE)
The MEI series from Stats NZ provides an early indica on of changes in the labour
market. These indicators use a combina on of data from two different Inland Rev-             Jobs Online is a regular data series published quarterly by MBIE that mea-
enue sources: the Employer Monthly Schedule (EMS) and payday filing. This data               sures changes in online job adver sements from four internet job boards —
is used to produce the filled jobs and gross earnings indicator series, published four       Seek, Trade Me Jobs, Educa on Gaze e and Kiwi Health Jobs. A monthly
to five weeks a er the end of the reference month.                                           series is available at https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/
                                                                                            employment-and-skills/labour-market-reports-data-and-analysis/jobs-online/
Monthly Benefits Update | Ministry of Social                                                 #jobs-online-monthly-data-release

Development (MSD)
The Monthly Benefits Update from MSD provides an overview of benefit and sup-
plementary assistance data. The report presents monthly benefit receipt numbers,
and the accompanying data file provides addi onal informa on and breakdowns.

Previous edi ons
The Monthly Labour Market Fact Sheet brings together the latest available data and surveys. July’s edi on4 included findings from the Ministry of Health’s COVID-19
Health and Wellbeing Survey, the Ministry of Social Development’s Wage Subsidy Survey and Auckland Tourism, Events and Economic Development’s (ATEED) COVID-19
Business Survey. August’s edi on5 included findings from Victoria University’s Life in Lockdown survey.

Contact us
For further informa on on the data contained in this fact sheet, please email us: LabourMarketInsights@mbie.govt.nz.

   4 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/11556-monthly-labour-market-fact-sheet-july-2020
   5 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/11637-monthly-labour-market-fact-sheet-august-2020

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