Monthly Investment Strategy January 2021 - Mahindra Finance

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Monthly Investment Strategy January 2021 - Mahindra Finance
Monthly Investment Strategy
       January 2021

             0
Monthly Investment Strategy January 2021 - Mahindra Finance
Indian Equity Markets

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  48,224
Indian equities hit record highs in December                   80000

                                                                                                        16,933
                                                               60000

                                                                                                                                                                                                            14,537
                                                                                                                                                                                 15,750
                                                                                                                                               13,179
                                                                                                                                               11,356

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               65,239
                                                                                                                           55,595

                                                                                                                                              5,493
                                                                                          2,250
                                                               40000

                                                                                                                                              2,434
                                                                                                                                              2,490
                                                                           694

                                                                                                                                                                                                          110
• Equity markets rose in the beginning of the                  20000

                                                     INR Cr
  month after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)                      0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -48,339
                                                                                                                                       -825
                                                                                                                 -65,817
                                                                                   -741
                                                                                 -5,412
                                                              -20000

                                                                                                                                    -5,209

                                                                                                                                                                       -10,008

                                                                                                                                                                                                -11,411
                                                                                                                                                                                      -11,047
  decided to maintain the interest rate at 4%,

                                                                                              -12,684

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -16,909
                                                              -40000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -37,294
  retain its accommodative stance and revise its              -60000
  domestic growth forecast upward to -7.5%                    -80000

                                                                                                                                               May-20
                                                                                                                                     Apr-20

                                                                                                                                                                                    Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-20
                                                                                                   Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-20
                                                                            Dec-19

                                                                                                                     Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                          Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-20
                                                                                     Jan-20
  from -9.5% for fiscal 2021.
• Better-than-expected domestic gross domestic
  product (GDP) data and good auto sales                               FII Net Monthly Investment                                                       DII Net Monthly Investment
  numbers boosted sentiments.                           Broad market
                                                                                                        31-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                              % Change % Change % Change % Change
                                                       indices                                                                                1 Month   1 Year   3 years  5 years
• More gains were seen after S&P Global
  Ratings raised India's growth projection for the                                                                   Broad market indices
                                                       Nifty 50                                                  13982      7.81       14.90                                                                  9.88                                 11.95
  current fiscal.                                      S&P BSE Sensex                                            47751      8.16       15.75                                                                 11.89                                 12.81
• Strong buying by the foreign institutional           S&P BSE MidCap                                            17941      6.07       19.87                                                                  0.22                                  9.98
  investors (FIIs) further supported the               S&P BSE SmallCap                                          18098      7.25       32.11                                                                 -2.00                                  8.85
  benchmarks. FIIs were net buyers of equities                                                                                         Sectoral indices
  in December. They bought equities worth Rs                                                                                                  % Change % Change % Change % Change
                                                        Sectoral Indices                                31-Dec-20
  48,224 crore in December compared with Rs                                                                                                   1 Month   1 Year   3 years  5 years
  65,239 crore in November.                           S&P BSE Metal                                              11599                         13.51                   11.23                                  -8.07                                 9.40
• Globally, optimism about economic recovery          S&P BSE BANKEX                                             35888                          5.92                   -2.14                                   7.52                                13.16
                                                      S&P BSE Finance                                             7054                          6.33                    0.83                                   6.64                                13.13
  amid rollout of a Covid-19 vaccine, signing of a
                                                      S&P BSE PSU                                                 5781                          9.18                  -16.88                                 -14.23                                -3.23
  $2.3 trillion stimulus package by US President      S&P BSE Auto                                               20811                          3.39                   12.59                                  -8.01                                 2.36
  Donald Trump, and a trade deal between the          S&P BSE Realty                                              2478                         20.20                    8.66                                  -1.69                                13.00
  UK and the European Union boosted domestic          S&P BSE FMCG                                               12609                          7.53                   10.55                                   5.62                                 9.87
  markets.                                            S&P BSE Healthcare                                         21681                          6.71                   61.45                                  13.53                                 5.10
                                                      S&P BSE IT                                                 24248                         12.08                   56.68                                  28.98                                16.98

                                                                       1
Monthly Investment Strategy January 2021 - Mahindra Finance
Indian Equity Markets
                                                           Nifty 50 earnings after a sharp contraction in Mar’20 and Jun’20 quarter witnessed some
• Some gains were capped due to intermittent profit        stability in Sep’20 (Q2FY21)
  booking and volatility amid the expiry of the                                                                                                                                                                                    132
  December futures and options contract.                                                                                                                                                                                                     106

• Selling by domestic institutional investors (DIIs)
                                                                                                              51                                         AVG: 12%
  also acted as a dampener. DIIs sold equities worth                                                 11
                                                                                                                                       26                                                                                                                   25
                                                                                                                              15                17                           16 10 9                                         29                    18                19
  Rs 37,294 crore in December compared with                                                                            6                                                   6
                                                               2 0                                                                                                                                                      1
  equities worth Rs 48,339 crore sold in November.
                                                                        -10
                                                                                 -2 -4 -5                                                            -6 -1
• Reports of rise in Covid-19 cases due to a new                                                                                                                  -29
  strain of the virus in the UK and several other                                                                                                                                                     -56
                                                                                                                                                                                                               -44
  countries also dented sentiments.
                                                            1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
• The market was dented further as concerns about
                                                                   FY16                            FY17                       FY18                         FY19                          FY20                           FY21                        FY22
  a sharp increase in Covid-19 cases across the
  globe and fears about new lockdown restrictions       Estimates – FY21, FY22, ^Average figure mentioned is from FY16 to FY22
                                                        Source: Bloomberg, data as of December 31, 2020
  rekindled economic growth worries.                      35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            28.72
All S&P BSE sectoral indices ended higher                 30

                                                          25
• The realty, metal, consumer durables and
  information technology (IT) sectors saw heavy           20
  buying. The S&P BSE Realty index was the top                                                                                                                                                                                              Long term
  gainer on bullish investor outlook and as the           15                                                                                                                                                                              Average 19.43
  residential property market began showing signs of
  sustainable recovery in December.                       10
                                                               Dec-09

                                                                                 Dec-10

                                                                                                   Dec-11

                                                                                                                     Dec-12

                                                                                                                                       Dec-13

                                                                                                                                                         Dec-14

                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-15

                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-20
                                                                        Jun-10

                                                                                          Jun-11

                                                                                                            Jun-12

                                                                                                                              Jun-13

                                                                                                                                                Jun-14

                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-15

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-20
• The S&P BSE Auto index rose ~3% as investors
  expected the sector to gain from normalization of
                                                                                 Nifty50 1 year Forward P/E                                                                         Nifty 50 Long Term Average P/E
  economic growth.                                     Source: Bloomberg, data as of December 31, 2020

                                                               2
Global Equity Markets
•   Indian equities were amongst the top performers for the                  RTS (Russia)
                                                                                                                           8.23
                                                                                               -10.42
    month of December 2020 generating a return of 8.16%,
                                                                                                                    0.60
    with other being Korea, Brazil and Russia.                               CAC (France)
                                                                                                     -7.14
•   The US equity benchmarks ended higher in December                     Bovespa (Brazil)
                                                                                                                            9.30
    after US President Donald Trump signed a Covid-19 aid                                                            2.92
                                                                                                                    1.35
    bill and as gains were recorded in pharmaceutical stocks      Straits times (Singapore)
                                                                                               -11.76
    following optimism over early availability of a coronavirus                                                       3.82
    vaccine.                                                            Nikkei 225 (Japan)
                                                                                                                                   16.01
•   The UK’s FTSE rallied 3% on-month, mainly after the                   DAX (Germany)
                                                                                                                     3.22
                                                                                                                     3.55
    government granted approval for a coronavirus vaccine.                                                                   10.89
                                                                             Kospi (Korea)
•   Japan’s Nikkei climbed in December after the                                                                                              30.75
    government unveiled a fresh $708 billion economic                                                                3.10
                                                                           FTSE 100 (UK)
    stimulus package to speed up the recovery from a                                  -14.34
                                                                                                                     3.27
    coronavirus-driven slump.                                                  DJIA (US)
                                                                                                                        7.25
•   Singapore’s Straits Times Index advanced in response to       S&P BSE Sensex (India)
                                                                                                                         8.16
                                                                                                                                   15.75
    a positive trend recorded by its global peers, including
                                                                                                                           7.81
    upbeat Chinese data, and stimulus support from the US                   Nifty 50 (India)
                                                                                                                                  14.90
    government.                                                                                                            7.36
                                                                           TSEC (Taiwan)
•   Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index too tracked the rally in its
                                                                                                                     3.38
                                                                                                                                          22.80

    global peers and rose in December, buoyed by upbeat           Hang Seng (Hong Kong)
                                                                                                        -3.40
    data from China, which indicated that the economy                                                                2.40
                                                                         Shanghai (China)
    continues to recover from the pandemic-induced                                                                                13.87
    slowdown.                                                                                  -20              0                  20             40

                                                                             % Change 1-month                        % Change 1-year

                                                             3
Indian Debt Markets
• Interbank call money rates remained below the RBI’s repo                                            21000            Movement of 10 Year Gilt Benchmark                                                    5.98%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Semi Annualised Closing Yield
  rate in December as liquidity remained in surplus.
                                                                                                      18000                                                                                                  5.96%
• Gilts ended little changed in December with the yield on
                                                                                                      15000

                                                               Turnover INR Cr.
  the 10-year benchmark 5.77% 2030 paper settling at                                                                                                                                                         5.94%
                                                                                                      12000
  5.90% on December 31 compared with 5.91% on                                                                                                                                                                5.92%
  November 27.                                                                                         9000
                                                                                                                                                                                                             5.90%
• Sentiment for dated securities remained weak earlier in                                              6000
  the month due to the absence of open market bond                                                     3000                                                                                                  5.88%
  purchase announcements from the central bank.                                                           0                                                                                                  5.86%
  Comments from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman that

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                                                                                                                 9-Dec-20
  India would be looking to step up spending to support
  economic growth and that the budget deficit target may be
  missed put bonds under pressure.                                                                            Turnover INR in Cr                                Semi Annualised Closing Yield
• However, losses were recouped on intermittent value
                                                                                                                                              Net LAF in Rs. Cr.
  buying and after the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee                                                         0

                                                                  Injection/Absorption in Rs crores
  (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged and decided to
                                                                                                      -100000
  continue with an accommodative stance.
                                                                                                      -200000
• Bond prices also received a boost after domestic retail
  inflation for November eased and on expectation that the                                            -300000
  central bank would announce open market bond                                                        -400000
  purchases in January.
                                                                                                      -500000
• The rupee rose 1.3% on month to settle at Rs 73.06 at
  December end, aided by positive developments                                                        -600000
  surrounding Covid-19 vaccines, periodic rally in local                                              -700000

                                                                                                                                     Feb-20

                                                                                                                                              Mar-20
                                                                                                                                                       Apr-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct-20
                                                                                                                   Dec-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-20
                                                                                                                            Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-20
                                                                                                                                                                May-20
  equity indices, and foreign fund inflows into the domestic
  financial market.

                                                        4
Indian Debt Markets
Key developments in December                                                       7.50                       Yield Curve
                                                                                   7.00
• The Centre allowed additional borrowing of Rs 16,728 crore                       6.50
  through open market borrowings to five states.                                   6.00

                                                                       Yield (%)
                                                                                   5.50
• The central bank decided to facilitate a more efficient liquidity
                                                                                   5.00
  management in regional rural banks, permitting them to
                                                                                   4.50
  access the liquidity adjustment facility, marginal standing
                                                                                   4.00
  facility, and call or notice money market.
                                                                                   3.50
• The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) extended                       3.00                   31-Dec-20         Month ago       Year ago
  the implementation date for framework for creation of security                   2.50
  for listed debt securities and due diligence to be carried out                          0.25   1   2    3     4   5      7     8      9   10    15     20
  by debenture trustees to April 1, 2021.                                                                       Maturity (years)

                                                                                   Instrument            31-Dec-20          Month ago        Year ago
Banking-related developments
                                                                      Call Rate                           2.10%              3.40%               4.90%
                                                                      91 D T-bill*                        3.02%              2.93%               5.06%
• The RBI’s annual publication ‘Report on Trend and Progress
                                                                      3 M CP                              3.70%              3.18%               5.40%
  of Banking in India’ said the Indian banking and non-banking
  financial sector showed resilience in fiscal 2020, but with         3 M CD                              3.36%              2.90%               5.08%

  nearly 40% of outstanding loans under moratorium, the               1 Yr CP                             4.25%              4.15%               6.75%
  system may face sharp deterioration in asset quality going          1 Yr CD                             3.68%              3.59%               6.00%
  forward.                                                            1 Yr G-Sec*                         3.74%              3.33%               5.57%
• According to the RBI report on banking trends, gross non-           3 Yr G-Sec*                         4.41%              4.42%               6.35%
  performing assets (GNPAs) ratio of scheduled commercial             5 Yr G-Sec*                         5.10%              5.08%               6.48%
  banks declined from 9.1% at end-March 2019 to 8.2% at end-
                                                                      10 Yr G-Sec*                        5.89%              5.91%               6.56%
  March 2020 and further to 7.5% at end-September.
                                                                      *Weighted Average Yield

                                                            5
Indian Economy
Global and domestic institutions scale down India’s GDP                                    12
                                                                                            9   6.2   5.6   5.7
contraction forecasts for current fiscal, expect rebound                                                           5.2   4.4    4.1
                                                                                            6                                           3.1
                                                                                            3

                                                                       Domestic GDP Growth %
                                                                                            0
• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development                               -3
  revised its India GDP growth forecast to -9.9% for fiscal 2021                           -6
  from -10.2% projected in September. It also forecast the                                 -9
                                                                                                                                                    -7.5
                                                                                          -12
  economy would rebound 8% in the next fiscal and 5% thereafter.                          -15
                                                                                          -18
                                                                                          -21
Retail inflation retreated in November                                                    -24
• India’s retail, or consumer price-index (CPI)-based, inflation                          -27                                      -23.9
                                                                                                 2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q
  decelerated to a three-month low of 6.93% in November 2020                                    FY19 FY19 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY21
  compared with 7.61% in October, as vegetable prices eased
  significantly.                                                       Indicators                                  Current                Previous

• RBI expects CPI inflation at 6.8% for the third quarter of fiscal    GDP Growth                                 4.2% (FY20)            6.1% (FY19)
  2021 and 5.8% for the fourth quarter. For the first half of fiscal
  2022, it has projected inflation at 5.2-4.6%, with risks broadly     Monthly CPI                           6.93% (November           7.61% (October
  balanced.                                                            Inflation                                  2020)                    2020)
                                                                       Industrial Growth                      3.6% (Oct 2020)         0.49% (Sep 2020)

Other major developments                                                                                     - $42.03 bn (April-      -$113.42 bn (April-
                                                                       Trade Balance
                                                                                                              November FY21)           November FY20)
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi released over Rs 18,000 crore to
                                                                                                              INR 10,26,055 cr         INR 11,74,143 cr
  more than 9 crore farmer families under the Pradhan Mantri           Gross Tax
                                                                                                              (April-November          (April-November
  Kisan Samman Nidhi, or PM-KISAN.                                     Collections                                  FY21)                    FY20)
• The government entered into a $1 billion loan agreement with         Manufacturing                           56.4 (December           56.3 (November
  the New Development Bank to support the Mahatma Gandhi               PMI                                          2020)                    2020)
  National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme and the                                                           52.3 (December           53.7 (November
                                                                       Services PMI
  country’s rural infrastructure.                                                                                   2020)                    2020)

                                                             6
Global Economy
US Fed keeps interest rate near zero
                                                                             GDP                 Inflation       Industrial Growth
• The US Federal Reserve (Fed), in its December
   policy meeting, kept the target range for federal               Current      Previous    Current   Previous   Current   Previous
   funds rate at 0-0.25%.
                                                                    33.4%       -31.4%       0.2%       0.0%      0.4%      0.9%
US Q3 GDP growth revised upwards                       US
                                                                   Q3 2020      Q2 2020     Nov’20      Oct’20   Nov’20     Oct’20
• The US’ revised upwards its GDP growth in the
                                                                    -4.3%       -14.7%      -0.3%       -0.3%    2.1%        0.1%
   third quarter to 33.4% from 33.1% reported          Eurozone
                                                                   Q3 2020      Q2 2020     Nov’20      Oct’20   Oct’20     Oct’20
   earlier.
                                                                    16.0%       -18.8%       0.3%       0.7%     -5.5%     -6.3%
BoE holds interest rate steady                         UK
                                                                   Q3 2020      Q2 2020     Nov’20      Oct’20   Oct’20    Sep’20
• The Bank of England (BoE) kept its main lending
                                                                    4.9%         3.2%       -0.5%       0.5%      7.0%      6.9%
   rate at 0.1%, after cutting twice from 0.75%        China
                                                                   Q3 2020      Q2 2020     Nov’20      Oct’20   Nov’20     Oct’20
   since the onset of the pandemic in March.
                                                                    22.9%       -29.2%      -0.9%       -0.7%     0.0%      4.0%
ECB expands bond buying to combat Covid - 19           Japan
                                                                   Q3 2020      Q2 2020     Nov’20      Oct’20   Nov’20     Oct’20
• The ECB increased Pandemic Emergency
                                                                    -7.5%       -23.9%      6.93%       7.61%    3.6%       0.5%
   Purchase Program by 500 billion euros to 1.85       India
                                                                   Q2 2020      Q1 2020     Nov’20      Oct’20   Oct’20    Sep’20
   trillion euros, and extended it by nine months to
   at least the end of March 2022.                     Major Global Central        Latest Key Interest       IMF GDP projections
China lowers 2019 GDP growth to 6.0%                   Bank                               rate                     (2021)
• China revised down its GDP growth for 2019 to        US Federal Reserve              0.00-0.25%                   3.1%
   6.0% from the previously reported 6.1%.
                                                       Bank of England                     0.10%                    5.9%
Japan unveils $708 billion fresh stimulus
• Japan rolled out a fresh $708 billion economic       European Central Bank               0.00%                    5.2%
   stimulus package to speed up the recovery. The
   economy grew by a revised 22.9% annually            People’s Bank of China              4.65%                    8.2%
   during July-September; in April-June, the
                                                       Bank of Japan                       -0.10%                   2.3%
   economy had contracted 29.2%.
                                                       India                               4.00%                    8.8%

                                                               7
Indian Mutual Funds - Equity
Category performance                                                                 Equity Fund Category Performance
• Most equity fund categories, which represent actively managed                                      5.62
  underlying schemes, have managed to recover after falling                     Arbitrage           5.12
  sharply towards the end of the previous fiscal (when the Covid-19                               3.80
                                                                                                       7.15
  pandemic first took root domestically) to generate returns ranging       Equity Savings              5.53
  from 14-16% in the past one year ended December 2020.                                                     9.43
                                                                                                             9.69
• Over the same period, India’s broad equity benchmarks Multi Asset Allocation                             8.68
  represented by the Nifty 50, Nifty 200, and Nifty 500 have                                                           16.53
                                                                                                           8.60
  generated returns of ~15-17%.
                                                                     Balanced Advantage                 6.71
• Small cap funds have gained the most at ~31% over the past                                                    11.96
  year.                                                                                                      9.77
                                                                       Aggressive Hybrid              6.08
• Hybrid schemes have provided unit-holders with returns ranging                                                    14.66
  from 4% for arbitrage funds to 17% for multi-asset allocation                                                11.18
                                                                                     ELSS           5.33
  funds in the previous 12 months.                                                                                    16.06
Other news                                                                                                      11.67
                                                                                Focused                6.64
• Investors continued to pull out of open ended equity funds for the                                                   16.27
                                                                                                             10.11
  fifth straight month in November, mostly on profit booking, noting           Small Cap     0.84
  the record highs hit by the equity benchmarks in November.                                                                   30.66
                                                                                                               11.01
• SEBI decided to relax profitability criteria for becoming a mutual            Multi Cap             6.49
  fund sponsor; mandated minimum Rs 100 crore net worth                                                               15.74
  requirement for entities to become sponsors of mutual funds.                                                 11.32
                                                                         Large & Mid Cap            4.98
• SEBI also approved proposals including dispensing with the                                                           16.23
                                                                                                               11.02
  requirement to issue physical unit certificates and reducing                 Large Cap                 7.55
  maximum permissible exit load.                                                                                   13.72

                                                                                                  5 year   3 year   1 year
  Performance data as on December 31, 2020
  Returns are annualized for periods above one year

                                                                    8
Indian Mutual Funds - Debt
Category performance
                                                                                     Debt Fund Category Performance
• Long duration and medium to long duration funds have
  provided returns of ~10-12% in the past year due to sharp                                                         4.86
                                                                               Overnight
                                                                                                             3.32
  reduction in interest rates by the RBI to help the economy
                                                                                                                       5.85
  recover from the Covid-19 crisis.                                                Liquid
                                                                                                               4.04
• At the shorter end of the maturity spectrum, the 3 year                                                                 6.92
                                                                          Money Market
  returns of overnight, liquid, money market, and ultra-short                                                         5.60
  term funds have been higher compared to the their respective       Ultra Short Duration
                                                                                                                       6.10
  returns over a one year holding period, as high liquidity in the                                                  5.10
  system brought the short end interest rate to historically low                                                    5.10
                                                                           Low Duration
                                                                                                                           6.27
  levels.
                                                                        Medium to Long                                         7.44
                                                                          Duration                                                        10.10
Other news                                                                                                                        8.00
                                                                            Floating Rate
• Open-ended debt fund inflows have been firm in November,                                                                           9.03
                                                                                                                                  7.94
  at ~Rs 44,984 crore at the aggregate level. Low duration               Corporate Bond
                                                                                                                                         10.11
  funds led the way in terms of inflows, at ~Rs 27108 crore.                                                                        8.76
• Overnight funds bore the brunt of outflows at ~Rs 15548               Banking and PSU
                                                                                                                                          9.83
  crore, as advance tax money moves out of the system.                                                                     6.39
                                                                          Short Duration
• SEBI extended the date for implementation of framework for                                                                       8.36
  uniformity in applicability of net asset value (NAV) across                 Credit Risk
                                                                                                      1.52
                                                                                                   0.49
  various schemes on realisation of funds to February 1, 2021.                                                                            9.93
                                                                           Long Duration
                                                                                                                                                  12.23
                                                                                                                      5.41
                                                                       Medium Duration
                                                                                                                        6.29

                                                                                            0.00              5.00                  10.00             15.00
  Performance data as on December 31, 2020
  Returns are annualized for periods above one year                                                 3 year     1 year

                                                              9
Debt Investment Strategy
Debt markets have benefited significantly in the year 2020 as a result of sharp reduction in key interest rates in
the system. Reverse Repo rate saw a reduction of 150bps (1.55%) during the year and strongly benefited the
open ended debt mutual funds. The credit risk segment continues to remain worst hit with lack of appetite for low
risk papers and financing and business continuity concerns for corporates especially during the lockdown period.
Hence, the credit spectrum remains non attractive at the current juncture. Keys factors that are negatively
affecting the investor sentiments in debt markets are high Government borrowing, high fiscal deficit and high
Inflation amongst the favorable conditions of abundant liquidity and RBI’s super accommodative Monetary Policy
stance. At present, the balance does weight in favor of low rates for prolonged period of time.
Although the intent is to keep the money supply and interest rate appropriate for a pick up in economic growth in
post Covid scenario, the risk may emanate from continued rise in consumer inflation and further expansion of
deficit borrowing, leading to yields gaining some strength. In the wake of the above investor should reassess
their risk appetites and return expectations for the current year.

   Investing in fixed deposits at this juncture may lead to negative real yields considering low interest rates and
    high inflationary expectations. Investment in open ended active debt funds should be preferred to gain from
    higher carry yields at higher durations, credit compressions and further reduction in yields.
   Investment in a variety of debt categories is suggested to have exposure to different maturities, market
    segments to achieve diversification.
   A strategy that works well for investors is bucketing their investment in different tenures and selecting a
    suitable debt product accordingly.
   Investors having a shorter tenure of below 1 year, may invest in Ultra Short Term, Low Duration, Floating
    Rate Funds. Investors with investment horizon up to 3 years may investment in Short Duration Funds,
    Banking & PSU Debt Funds, Medium Duration Funds. Long Term money can be invested in Long duration,
    Gilt Fund and Dynamic Bond Funds.
   Investment in Gold Funds, SGBs may also be considered keeping in view the benefit of diversification.

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Equity Investment Strategy
Strong liquidity flows from foreign investors continue to fuel the rally in equities while the improvement in fundamental
is still in progress. High valuations in equity is one of the foremost area of concern while making the investment
decision at this juncture. Although the green shoots of economic recovery are visible we are still far from reaching the
pre-Covid levels on many macro factors. The Q2FY21 corporate results presented a healthy picture of profitability and
corporate sustenance and further rekindled the hope of the investors. As the earnings improve, the valuations would
also see some easing. Keeping in view the current state of the markets, investors should emphasize on the following
essential points

   Existing equity investors should have the right asset mix of debt, equity and gold in the portfolio to wade through
    the high asset volatility. Having different asset with negative/low correlation helps in reducing the risk of the
    overall portfolio.
   Please take a risk profile test to know your risk appetite at regular intervals and reallocate your portfolio
    accordingly to meet your long term goals. Kindly connect with your relationship manager for risk profiling
    assessment and to ascertain the right asset mix for your investment portfolio
   New investors should have a long term approach while investing in equities. Investors should also avoid investing
    money in one go and follow systematic ways of investing to avoid any large impact on the portfolio due to sharp
    market movement.SIP remains one of the best ways of investing due to its benefit of averaging the cost of buying
    equities at various levels.
   It is prudent to have a large cap bias at the current juncture as abundant liquidity in this segment will enable the
    investors to move swiftly to other investment avenues.
   Investors should avoid trading/investing for short term period at this juncture. Surplus Funds can be parked in
    Short Term and Medium Term funds to take advantage of favorable debt environment and higher risk in the
    equities. Risk of underperformance in such strategy does exist if equities continue to move sharply up, hence
    investors need to have a balanced approach to investing and parking in debt.
   It is always advisable to entrust the job of stock selection to experts such as fund managers to benefit from
    equities at this juncture

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MF Taxation

* For LTCG exceeding 1 lakhs
$ Surcharge to be levied at
         • 37% on base tax where specified income exceeds Rs. 5 crore;
         • 25% where specified income exceeds Rs. 2 crore but does not exceed Rs. 5 crore;
         • 15% where total income exceeds Rs. 1 crore but does not exceed Rs. 2 crore; and
         • 10% where total income exceeds Rs. 50 lakhs but does not exceed Rs. 1 crore.
^ as per Slab
^^ If total turnover or gross receipts in the financial year 2018-19 does not exceed Rs. 400 crores
^^^ This lower rate is optional and subject to fulfillment of certain conditions as provided in section 115BAA.
^^^^ This lower rate is optional for companies engaged in manufacturing business (set-up & registered on or after 1 October 2019)
subject to fulfillment of certain conditions as provided in section 115BAB.

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data
and other sources believed to be reliable, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. ("MMFSL") does
not warrant its completeness and accuracy. Whilst we are not soliciting any action based upon this
information, all care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and opinions given fair and
reasonable. This information is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any
financial instrument recipients of this information should rely on their own investigations and take their own
professional advice. Neither MMFSL nor any of its employees shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special,
incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the
information contained in this material.

MMFSL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or
issuance of this material may from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities
thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein. MMFSL may at any time solicit or provide, credit, advisory or
other services to the issuer of any security referred to herein. Accordingly, information may be available to
MMFSL, which is not reflected in this material, and MMFSL may have acted upon or used the information
prior to, or immediately following its publication

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Glossary
Term                                  Description
                                      The practice of adjusting the purchase price of an asset to account for the change in inflation over a
Indexation
                                      period, thereby reducing overall tax liability.
                                      The phenomenon of an increase in the cost of goods and services at an economy-wide aggregate level,
Inflation
                                      which results in the reduction of purchasing power.
                                      The mathematical effect of compounding is applicable to interest which gets added to accumulated
Compounding                           interest over prior periods. The longer the holding period, the greater is the accumulation of wealth due
                                      to the effect of compounded interest.
Yields                                The returns that can be obtained by investing in instruments such as gilts.
Call Money                            The rate at which banks borrow and lend in the money market for short term periods.
Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF)   A facility provided by the RBI to help banks manage their daily liquidity requirements.
Duration                              The sensitivity of a bond’s price to change in market interest rates.
Standard Deviation                    A metric used to measure the variability in an investment’s returns, which is also referred to as volatility.
                                      This refers to a nation’s economic policy to achieve end objectives such as inflation, consumption, and
                                      economic output (GDP). The Reserve Bank of India is tasked with implementation of India’s monetary
Monetary Policy                       policy. Some of the tools that the central bank has at its disposal to achieve monetary policy goals are
                                      open market operations, power to change benchmark interest rates, and ability to alter banks’ reserve
                                      requirements.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)          The monetary value of all goods and services produced by a nation.
Basis Points                          A unit of measure for interest rates. Mathematically, one basis point equals 1/100th of 1%.
Credit Spread                         The difference in yields of corporate bonds over gilts of similar maturity.
                                      A bank classifies a loan as an NPA if principal or interest payment is not received after a predetermined
Non Performing Asset (NPA)
                                      time period.
                                      Derivatives, as the name implies, are financial contracts that derive their value from an underlying asset
Derivatives                           or group of assets. The most commonly used assets are stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and
                                      market indices.
                                      Hedging is the practice of investing in a particular asset class in order to minimize the risk of loss that
Hedging                               could be sustained in another asset class. Effective hedging involves investment in asset classes that
                                      don’t move in the same direction.

                                                                        14
Glossary
                  Term                   Description
                                         They are types of stock derivatives that are traded on an exchange. They represent contracts signed by
Futures and Options                      two parties to trade a stock at a predetermined price on a later date in a bid to hedge their risks. In the
                                         case of hedging in futures and options, an investor may buy or sell contracts as protection against the
                                         risk of changing prices.
Goods and Services (GST) Tax             It is a type of broad indirect tax regime that has been put into effect since 2017 in India to subsume a
                                         number of other indirect taxes.
New Fund Offer (NFO)                     It is the period of time during which the units of a newly launched mutual fund are available for sale to
                                         investors.
Exit Load                                A fee that may be levied by the fund house on the investor at the time of exiting a scheme. This is done
                                         to discourage investors from withdrawing from the scheme prematurely.
Sponsor                                  The sponsor is the promoter of a mutual fund. It is the sponsor’s responsibility to set up the mutual
                                         fund’s asset management company by bringing in capital.
                                         The trustees of the mutual fund safe guard the interests of the unit-holders. Apart from appointing a
Trustee                                  custodian for safe-keeping of assets, the trustees also ensure that the fund house is in compliance with
                                         all applicable regulatory requirements.
Custodian                                This is the entity that is responsible for the safe-keeping of securities held by the fund house.
Net Asset Value (NAV)                    The value of a unit of a mutual fund.
                                        They are entities incorporated overseas that invest in financial assets such as stocks and bonds of
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)  companies domiciled in India. Investment banks, pension funds, and mutual funds are some of the
                                        types of FIIs that invest in Indian assets.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) In contrast to FIIs, DIIs are domestically registered institutions that invest in India’s financial market.
                                        These include banks, insurance companies and mutual funds.
                                         Rather than simply investing in the financial securities of Indian companies, FDI is a route through
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)          which foreign entities can more actively invest in Indian corporates. An example of FDI would be if an
                                         overseas company purchases a sizeable stake in an Indian company. Doing so enables the overseas
                                         investor to have a greater say in the management of the Indian firm.

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THANK YOU

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