Melbourne Water Outlook 2019 - 30 November 2018
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Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Melbourne
Water Outlook
2019
30 November 2018
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Melbourne’s water supplies are secure for the coming year
63.0%
Our water storages are in the high (secure) zone.
Melbourne’s water security is dependent on how much water we have in storage
from year to year. Our water outlook zones are reviewed on 30 November each
year, with Figure 1 showing the zones and corresponding actions. Melbourne’s
water supply system has enough water for the coming year, and our storages
remain above the low (emergency) zone under a range of modelled scenarios.
Current storage level at 29 November 2018
Permanent Water Use Rules are currently in place, supported by the Target 155
voluntary water efficiency program, which encourages Melburnians to continue
using water efficiently. Actions per zone
Water efficiency programs (e.g. Target 155,
The Victorian Desalination Project has an important strategic role in the Melbourne Permanent Water Use Rules)
water supply system to manage the impacts of climate change and a growing
population. It allows for the planning and operation of the water supply system to Use of the Victorian Desalination Project as
maintain a buffer of water in storage which provides resilience to future shocks, required to minimise entering the medium (take
such as droughts. The Victorian Desalination Project is supplying Melbourne with High (secure) zone action) zone
15 billion litres of desalinated water for this year. Continued investment in alternative water sources
(e.g. recycled water)
Over the past year, the catchment areas have experienced drier and warmer-than-
Ongoing planning for water availability
average conditions. Below average rainfall combined with dry catchments have
also resulted in below average inflow conditions during 2018, with our storages now Ongoing engagement with customers.
5.6 per cent lower than the same time last year. Increased use of the Victorian Desalination Project.
Commence planning for augmentation
40% 60% Medium (take action)
zone Increased use of customer behaviour and
Medium efficiency programs
(take action) Current storage
zone 63.0% Further water saving measures.
Expanded use of customer behaviour and
Low High efficiency programs
(emergency) (secure)
zone Implementation of augmentations
zone
Low (emergency) zone Potential stage 3 and 4 restrictions
Investment in emergency supply options
0% 100% Maximise use of the Victorian Desalination Project.
Figure 1: Our water outlook zones and corresponding actions
2
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Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Melbourne’s water supply system
Melbourne Water provides wholesale water services to the retail water
corporations and other customers. The retail water corporations
deliver water to the community. Melbourne Water can also supply water
to some regional water corporations including Western Water, Barwon
Water, Gippsland Water, South Gippsland Water and Westernport
Water. Each regional water corporation has their Water Outlook, but are
considered when planning for Melbourne’s water security.
Figure 3: Melbourne Water supply system
Figure 2: How water is supplied
3
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Long-term outlook
Population growth, the potential impacts of
climate change and other factors influence
the long-term supply and demand for water.
In June 2017, the metropolitan retail water corporations released their
urban water strategies coupled with Melbourne Water’s release of the
Melbourne Water System Strategy. Each strategy is reviewed every five
years, to ensure ongoing water availability and to establish the strategic
water resource investments and actions to 2065.
Each aligns with the State Government of Victoria’s Water for Victoria
plan. A joint summary of our actions is outlined in Water for a future-
thriving Melbourne.
In addition to each strategy, each retail water corporation has prepared
Drought Preparedness Plans (incorporating the Drought Response Plan)
which set out actions to prepare for, and respond to, periods of water
shortage.
Recent impacts on our long-term outlook have been: Figure 4: Long-term water supply and demand (Source: Water for a future-thriving Melbourne, 2017)
»» Rapid population growth in Melbourne over the past few years has
increased water usage.
»» Victoria’s climate has shown a warming and drying trend over recent
decades, and this trend is expected to continue. In comparison to
historical conditions we’re already experiencing:
»» higher temperatures
»» reductions in rainfall in autumn and winter, and in some locations,
increases in rainfall during the warmer months
»» in many catchments, a shift in the streamflow response to rainfall,
with less streamflow generated for the same amount of rain.
Figure 4 shows projected long-term water supply and demand trends for
Melbourne, assuming full use of the Victorian Desalination Project, noting
that there will be variability in specific years.
4
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Melburnians continue to be water wise System losses
(e.g. fire fighting,
600 leakage) 12% Residential
64%
Residential customers are
Non-residential
24%
500
Melbourne’s biggest water users
60
53
56
and use approximately two and a
51
117 45
47
48
400
48
106 42
45
131
42
42
42
billion litres
138
half times more water than industry.
126
42
118
41
118
106
108
40
Figure 6: Water use breakdown for 2017-18
36
89 36
100
100
108
99
300
100
97
92
93
303
295
Melbourne’s water usage in 2017-18 increased by 5 per cent 200
Did you know?
265
280
277
267
273
272
30%
257
compared to the previous year. Total water use (see Figure 5)
268
253
228
249
252
223
220
229
218
remains below the levels experienced prior to the Millennium
100
Drought (1997 – 2009), despite an increase in population.
Residential water use comprised 64 per cent of Melbourne’s
total water use in 2017-18 (Figure 6). 0 of residential water
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
The residential per-capita consumption for 2017-18 use occurs
was 161 litres per person per day (as detailed in Figure 8), the in the shower
same as the previous year. Residential Non-residential
System losses
(e.g. fire fighting, leakage)
Since 2011-12 (as detailed in Figure 7), the Victorian Figure 5: Melbourne’s total water use by segment
Environmental Water Holder has released water available
from environmental entitlements to the Thomson, Yarra and
Tarago Rivers to improve environmental outcomes and the
health of water ecosystems.
250
247
234
226
50 200
208
208
Litres per person per day
205
188
40
166
166
150
45
44
160
160
161
161
159
161
Volume (billion litres)
152
149
147
30
34
100
29
26
20
23
50
17
10
0 0
2008-09
2005-06
2003-04
2004-05
2006-07
2007-08
2002-03
2000-01
2009-10
2015-16
2013-14
2014-15
2016-17
2017-18
2001-02
2012-13
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2011-12
Figure 7: Environmental flow releases Figure 8: Melbourne’s per capita residential consumption
5
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
A warmer summer ahead
The Bureau of Meteorology outlooks
show average rainfall, warmer
temperatures, and low storage inflows
are more likely for the Melbourne
region over the next few months.
Temperature and rainfall influence water use, particularly
during summer periods, when it’s used for watering
gardens, parks, and sportsgrounds. At the same time,
rainfall and temperature also influence inflows to Figure 9: Seasonal rainfall outlook for December 2018
Melbourne’s storage reservoirs. to February 2019 Figure 11: ENSO outlook (Source: Bureau of Meteorology
20 November 2018)
El Niño events are generally associated with warm
conditions with reduced rainfall. The category of El Niño
ALERT (Figure 11) means that there’s approximately a
70 per cent chance of El Niño developing in 2018, about
triple the normal likelihood.
The water corporations continually monitor storage
conditions and the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal
climate outlooks.
The climate outlook issued on 29 November 2018
indicated that average rainfall and warmer-than-average
day time temperatures are likely for the Melbourne
region this summer. The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal
streamflow forecast issued on 12 November 2018 for
Melbourne’s four major storage reservoirs indicated
lower than average inflows for the three-month period
(November 2018-January 2019). Figure 10: Seasonal temperature outlook for December
2018 to February 2019
6
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
What this means for Melbourne
Permanent Water Use Rules and
water from the Victorian Desalination
Project are important to keep
Melbourne’s water supply secure.
As of 29 November 2018, the total system storage level
is 63.0 per cent, 5.6 per cent less than the same time last
year. As a result of the Victorian Government’s desalinated
water orders, since 2016 storage levels are 4.2 per cent
higher than they otherwise would have been.
While storage levels are likely to remain in the high (secure)
zone (above 60 per cent) at 30 November 2019, modelling
suggests that they could be lower than the medium (take
action) zone on 30 November 2019 if dry conditions occur
during 2019 (see Figure 12). The modelling has taken into
account the potential water requirements of regional
urban water corporations to be met through the water
grid. We have a number of actions (as detailed in Figure 1)
in the medium (take action) zone, and based on this water
restrictions are unlikely for Melbourne over the next 12 Figure 12: Melbourne total system storage outlook (projected from 28 November 2018)
months. However Permanent Water Use Rules will continue
to apply to ensure sensible water use.
Increasing community awareness of efficient water
use practices, and use of the Victorian Desalination
Project will minimise the risk of entering the medium
(take action) zone.
7
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Actions we’re taking
We’ve identified a number of actions in each of our Urban Water Strategies and the Melbourne Water System
Strategy, as well as the actions we’ve taken collaboratively in Water for a future-thriving Melbourne.
We’ve provided a summary of the key actions we’re working on together and separately to enhance our water availability.
Permanent Water Use Rules Continuing to inform the community about the ‘common sense’ rules which ensure the wise use of water at all times.
Target 155 voluntary water efficiency program Continuing to deliver the Victorian Government’s Target 155 voluntary water efficiency program that encourages metropolitan
Melbourne households to use water efficiently, aiming for 155 litres per person per day. The Victorian Water Efficiency Strategy
identifies opportunities to work together to deliver water efficiency measures.
Community Rebates Program This part-government funded program supports vulnerable customers to undertake plumbing improvements at home so they
can avoid unnecessary and inefficient water usage. This includes engaging a plumber to do a water audit, and subsequently
carry out minor plumbing works (e.g. replacement washers, dual-flush toilets, fixing leaking taps, replacement showerheads).
Integrated water management (IWM) Actively supporting the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) in the formation and delivery of IWM
forums, and leading the development of place-based IWM plans.
Desalinated water order advice Annually reviewing the level of water availability and storage forecasts to provide advice to the Minister for Water on the
desalinated water order volumes required to provide ongoing water security. In 2018-19, 15 gigalitres (GL) of desalinated water
was ordered with the desalination water order advice including non-binding forecasts of 100 and 125 GL for 2019/20 and
2020/21 respectively. (Source: 2018/19 Desalinated Water Order Advice, Summary of Technical Analysis)
Schools Water Efficiency Program (SWEP) Continuing the schools program which helps schools identify leaks, faulty appliances and inefficient practices. Since 2012,
SWEP has saved participating Victorian schools more than 4.7 billion litres of water equating to a saving of more than $13.7
million.
Network efficiency Undertaking active leak detection, reticulation mains renewals, district metering and trialling intelligent network technologies
to minimise non-revenue water.
Key achievements Integrated water management: Through the IWM forum process, water corporations and relevant stakeholders have
collaboratively identified key projects to implement across Melbourne. Developed a strategic directions statement for each
catchment, which highlights prioritised projects.
Priority public open space: Engaged with councils across Melbourne to better understand the role of the water sector in
maintaining the quality of critical open spaces during times of water stress.
Choose Tap©: Participated in Choose Tap©, the community-based initiative promoting the benefits of drinking tap water, to
support community water awareness and enhance sustainability outcomes
End use study: Continued a long-term study to analyse water use behaviours and the take up of water saving appliances in the
home for 300 customers across Melbourne. Findings show that showers remain the most critical use of water in our homes,
closely followed by toilets, with customers demonstrating continued efficient use of these appliances.
Community Housing Retrofit Program: Provided water use audits and retrofits to emergency and community housing through
this government-funded program, the design for which recognised customers’ differing requirements, to ensure that water
use (and therefore bills) are minimised.
8
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
City West Water programs/projects
Altona and West Werribee Recycled Water Schemes Operating and developing schemes to supply recycled
water to commercial, industrial and residential customers,
and for the irrigation of open spaces.
Efficiency programs Continuing to work with residential and non-residential
customers to deliver water efficiency projects, focusing on
sector-specific programs.
Greening the West Delivering regional green infrastructure projects in
partnership with state and local government, industry
bodies and community groups, linking sustainable water
supplies to enabling healthy, liveable communities.
Stormwater Harvesting Partnership Fund Delivering a co-investment fund that partners with local
government to deliver stormwater harvesting projects
aimed at increasing alternative water supplies to priority
open space precincts.
West Werribee Aquifer Storage and Recovery Scheme Continuing operational trials for the testing of an aquifer
storage and recovery scheme, using Class A recycled
water.
Key achievements Climate Resilience Strategy: Launched in 2018, the
strategy outlines City West Water’s planned response to
the impacts of climate change.
Greening the West: Partnered with key stakeholders to
deliver urban greening projects in Melbourne’s West,
including Upper Stony Creek, Greening the Pipeline and
Trees for Schools.
Stormwater Harvesting Partnership Fund: Launched the
fund and committed up to $2.5 million per year for five
years for co-funding to support and deliver stormwater
harvesting projects.
9
Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
South East Water programs/projects
Dual pipe recycled water projects – south-east growth Continuing to provide recycled water to more than
corridor 100,000 properties in the south-east growth corridor
(Cranbourne, Pakenham, Officer, Clyde) as development
proceeds.
Fishermans Bend Continuing to work with key stakeholders and partners, to
develop leading-edge integrated water solutions to create
a water sensitive city for 80,000 people, in Australia’s
largest urban renewal project.
Monash National Employment and Innovation Cluster Identifying the most viable and beneficial integrated water
(‘Monash Cluster’) management projects that will help achieve the vision for
the employment precinct (with Yarra Valley Water).
Aquarevo Helping create a blueprint for future sustainable and
liveable communities through integrated urban and water
planning. Homes will be plumbed with three sources of
water so the right water is used for the right purpose, set to
reduce reliance on drinking water by up 70 per cent.
Efficiency Continuing to work with our residential and business
customers to help them use water efficiently, in particular
during traditional high water use periods.
Key achievements Water awareness and efficiency: A new education website
(part of a schools education program) was launched to
expand reach and increase use of water efficiency online
resources.
Fishermans Bend: The Integrated Water Servicing Strategy
has been incorporated into the final Fishermans Bend
Framework, ensuring water services are a fundamental
aspect of achieving sustainable urban renewal.
Aquarevo: Land sales commenced in November 2016, and
Aquarevo’s first residents have settled on their land. It’s
expected customers will start building their homes and
move in throughout 2018-19.
10Melbourne Water Outlook 2019
Yarra Valley Water programs/projects
Dual pipe recycled water projects – northern growth Continuing the ongoing provision of recycled water to over
corridor 100,000 properties in the northern growth corridor, including
the suburbs of Epping North, Wollert, Kalkallo and Wallan, as
development proceeds.
Alternative water provision in the Yarra Valley Investigating the provision of recycled water for additional
residential developments and irrigation purposes in the
Croydon, Chirnside Park, Lilydale and Coldstream areas from the
Brushy Creek sewage treatment and water recycling plant.
Upper Merri Creek Integrated Water Management Evaluating opportunities for alternative water use, including
Planning stormwater harvesting, through collaboration with key
stakeholders e.g. Melbourne Water, councils, Traditional Owners.
Water conservation communications In keeping with Yarra Valley Water’s Price Submission
commitment to customers, providing targeted water
conservation resources, education and programs for customers
and the community about how to use water efficiently.
Network efficiency Continuing investment to reduce leakage (non-revenue water)
by establishing 250 district metered areas.
Key achievements Recycled water services in northern growth corridor:
continuation of the roll-out including to suburbs of Beveridge,
Craigieburn, Epping, Kalkallo, Mickleham and Wallan.
Water recycling planning at Monash (with South East Water) and
La Trobe National Employment Clusters: working with DELWP,
Melbourne Water and local councils to review opportunities for
water recycling in areas of planned redevelopment.
Non-revenue water reduction: continued investment to reduce
leakage, primarily through private mains metering and proactive
leak detection.
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