MEDIA PREDICTIONS 2019 - KANTAR
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FOREWORD: A TRANSFORMATIONAL TWELVE MONTHS IN MEDIA Richard Ingleton Andy Brown GLOBAL CEO INSIGHTS DIVISION, KANTAR CEO & CHAIRMAN, KANTAR MEDIA Before we gaze into our crystal ball and make predictions for 2019, we wanted to reflect on 2018 and what has been another year of change in media - and its implications for research organisations like Kantar. We’ve seen the continued fragmentation of audiences and the ever-fierce battle for eyeballs with the growth of Netflix and Amazon. Making sense of this changing landscape is challenging and increasingly we’re seeing a ‘connected intelligence’ approach, where syndicated data solutions of all types are being directly integrated with advertisers’ first party data. Away from the screen, we’re witnessing a renaissance in audio through the rise of voice activation for consumer applications. As with all new technologies, voice is creating both challenges and opportunities for the research industry. This year, we have started tracking and measuring voice activation and can already see the ways in which it is changing consumer behaviour. And 2018 will of course be remembered for the introduction of the General Data Protection Regulation across Europe. From the point of view of a market research organisation, GDPR is one of the best things that could have happened. It has not only put clear blue water in between market research and other data solutions, but also placed a greater emphasis on the provenance of data and transparency for consumers, both of which have always sat at the heart of market research. There has never been a more exciting time in media. We look forward to working together with our clients & partners to better understand this changing landscape throughout 2019 and beyond. Media Predictions 2019 2
EDITOR’S INTRODUCTION Jane Ostler, Kantar Ten years ago, we made our first Media and Digital Predictions. Presented in an earnest-looking 4:3 format, they look old fashioned now, but the content wasn’t far off the mark. The growth of online video, mobile marketing and even voice-activated search were all highlighted as things to come. And they still are. A few trends that will be guaranteed in 2019: further consolidation in the AdTech market, GDPR’s impact spreading beyond the EU; the widespread use of Artificial Intelligence in most marketing applications, and maybe a new realisation that there is no Holy Grail in measurement, but you can continue to improve marketing’s impact through the intelligent application of insights. So for 2019 here’s a set of 12 lively predictions from our experts around the world. We’re not focusing on grand, airy-fairy concepts, but useful, practical ideas that will help marketers and their agencies tackle media and effectiveness measurement challenges head on, without fear. And this year we’re renaming them Media Predictions, because most media is now becoming digital. Media Predictions 2019 4
ANALYTICS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE ROI DIVIDE Gonzalo Fuentes, Kantar More sophisticated use of data, combined see significant changes in this area. The biggest What will make a difference? Firstly, with analytics techniques and Artificial dilemma is that there is still a strong divide advancements in data management systems Intelligence (AI), will allow marketers to in the way measurement is done for different and analytics will help to solve the offline/ understand true ROI. investments. online conversion dilemma, and also navigate the online and offline investments ecosystem. The pressure to understand the ROI of Traditional Market Mix Modelling and And all this in an always-on data ingestion marketing investments is increasing all around econometric models have the advantage environment. us. Measuring/proving ROI is the #1 struggle of being able to give an overall perspective for advertisers globally, with understanding of marketing investment’s impact on sales. Secondly, the increased use of AI/Machine omnichannel behaviour and optimizing media They were perfect when the media plans Learning during the modeling process will investment close behind [Source: Kantar’s and marketing investments followed a fairly expedite the process and allow greater Getting Media Right, 2018]. The appearance standard approach. In today’s ever-changing sophistication in the number of modelling of the “Chief Growth Officer” replacing the marketing environment, these models lack solutions used as well as real-time validation good old CMO is not just a phonetic curiosity. granularity and are not very sensitive to digital (i.e. what is actually happening in the market). It signals a clear trend that marketing investments, so they are increasingly seen as professionals need to talk the ‘money’ language non-actionable tools for optimisation. Getting this right is important for demonstrating for everything they do, or they will lose their seat the ROI of marketing investments and will be a at the table. As a client of mine put it recently: Multi-touch attribution approaches are detailed massive competitive advantage to help forecast “if you can’t show your dollar contribution, you and provide great platforms for optimisation ROI for our clients’ strategies. become a cost - and costs can be cut”. of digital spend, but are too campaign-specific and limited to digital conversion. What use is With this pressure, effectiveness measurement this for companies that still have 90% of their will need to up its game. My bet is that 2019 will sales happening offline? Media Predictions 2019 6
BRANDS RAISE THEIR VOICE Jane Ostler, Kantar Marketers will start to explore voice With around 24% of US households owning even more important in determining who technologies in creative ways. a smart speaker, voice retail gives rise to new moves to the top of the list. branded search opportunities, the equivalent We predict a veritable outburst in voice/audio of being at the top of a paid search, or on an Alexa and others will start to be integrated activity undertaken by brands in 2019. Far eye level shelf instore. It means a whole new into in-car entertainment, overcoming the removed from the traditional 30” broadcast landscape for branded content too. How about horrendous in-car UX experience. Voice radio spot, the growth in connected audio sponsored audio recipes from manufacturers capability will expand to other currently dumb devices (smart speakers, connected in-car which link to a basket of ingredients? objects – ask your microwave how long to entertainment) and formats (podcasts, voice defrost that fish! search, voice assistants), gives rise to new There’s also more potential for brands to creative opportunities for brands to use audio target their advertising, based on audiences’ And finally, we’ll see voice used more as a in their communications. demographic and voice search behaviour. market research tool; you’ll be in your kitchen, The use of AI in deciding the optimal target answering questions, reviewing experiences, This raises some interesting questions for audience in real time will be based on other or submitting product reviews. This means marketers: how to integrate voice activity consumers’ past behaviour, and will determine connection and integration with other brand with the rest of the campaign and how they what results you hear. channels will become crucial - any innovation find their own voice. This will include decisions is pointless if you don’t test and learn. And a about what voice (or voices) to choose, and Voice means some tricky challenges in host of new exciting jobs will be established: means they need to develop an approach for company structure: voice content means who wants to be an audio influencer, a sonic logos /taglines /mnemonics. merging the traditional silos of marketing and sponsored voice assistant, or the voice of customer service. Trust in brands will become branded audio content? Sounds great to me. Media Predictions 2019 8
BUILDING TRUST AND INTERACTIVE EXPERIENCES ON SOCIAL MEDIA Coolio Yang, Kantar China Marketers will turn to China to New solutions are emerging to quantify in social media who can learn cognitive understand how social media can use new the influence of key opinion leaders, functions to develop a human personality technologies to develop trusted and richer including a Kantar Media CIC partnership and interacting with other social media experiences. using blockchain. The concept is simple: users. These AI users are gaining popularity the influencer sets up an account on the and even becoming influencers. One such Paid and earned use of social media by platform with an opt-in profile to their digital example is Microsoft’s Xiaobing, a popular brands in China is thriving; Tik Tok, the short influencing power data, e.g. number of fans, virtual social media character, and is able to video sharing platform, reaches more than average reads per posts, etc. The data is then interact with users on Weibo, WeChat and 100,000 users with social ads. Meanwhile verified by other users on the blockchain, Meipai and even write poetry, children’s books there are more than 500,000 product- providing an accurate indication of the and songs. related posts every minute on Red, the social influencers’ reach. media site [Source: Kantar Media CIC]. Given In 2019 we’ll see the continued evolution of the vastness of social media in China, with In effect users become the quality controllers, social media in China as a channel for rich more than 700 million regular users, the building trust when it comes to how many brand experiences with consumers. importance of influencers continues to grow. fans an influencer has, and how many of Marketers in China are increasing investment them read, engage and interact with them. ADAPTED FROM KANTAR MEDIA’S ‘CHINESE SOCIAL in influencer and celebrity partnerships on MEDIA LANDSCAPE’ REPORT social media. However, brands are finding it The use of social media by brands is challenging to measure the real ROI among becoming even more sophisticated with the many walled garden platforms. a third generation of social media user - artificial intelligence. AI is an emerging “user” Media Predictions 2019 10
BRANDS BUILD EXPONENTIAL EXPERIENCES Niels Neudecker, Kantar Maura Coracini, Kantar Brazil Brands will create new kinds of experiences goes beyond selling products: we now have media managers will need to move from for consumers, and learn how to integrate the mission to create experiences, more than thinking about media channels to thinking and evaluate them. converting leads and driving consumers in one about consumers. How will consumers single journey. But what does that all mean for make use of the internet of everything in the Welcome to disruption: Social platforms media managers? Media channels like TV, radio various categories? For automotive brands, becoming marketplaces, eCommerce and social media, will evolve into the internet the connected car is becoming a standard businesses becoming publishers, publishers of everything – a vast experience network. infrastructure, but nearly half of connected car becoming content creators, data scientists Our Connect database, with over 350,000 owners don’t understand the features they have becoming advertisers, ad agencies becoming touchpoint evaluations, reveals that experiential [Source: Kantar TNS Connected Car study]. For technology businesses. Within just three brand moments contribute up to nearly 50% of consumer products like food, the smart fridge months of 2018, Amazon launched their first brand desirability, and paid media contribute or microwave might be a relevant touchpoint. voice-controlled microwave, Apple introduced around 25% of the overall success in building their fourth generation of smart watches, and long-term brand equity. Media managers will This development has just started, and it’s 6 million new smart speakers were sold into turn into network managers and will be forced more than a trend - it’s a fundamental change. our homes. to create an integrated experience across all Those that rethink media management will touchpoints consumers interact with. lead this development and create exciting use The consumer is at the centre of this cases in 2019. development and is turning the marketing How can a brand message create value in this world upside down. The conversation now new infrastructure? To answer this question, Media Predictions 2019 12
GENDER TARGETING GETS REAL Duncan Southgate, Kantar Brands will start to take the portrayal of example, while 75% of ads tested by Kantar typified by more statement campaigns which women in advertising seriously. feature women, just 6% portray women turn gender stereotypes on their head, such in authoritative roles [Source: Link global as Always #LikeAGirl and Axe #isitokforguys, We predict that in 2019 advertisers will start database, 2018]. Major brands such as Sofitel as well as many less heralded but equally getting to grips with societal issues, and are still unwittingly causing offence, and important steps, such as toy manufacturers use their power and leverage to promote needing to pull their ads. adjusting stereotypical gender assumptions in progressive gender portrayals in advertising. how they target children. Not being gender progressive would be As more marketers accept they are to “reinforce rather than help eradicate ‘consciously incompetent’, we will see a It may not be until 2020 before we see many harmful gender-based stereotypes” [Source: thirst for knowledge about how to address advertisers making progressive targeting Unstereotype Alliance]. When it comes to these media and creative challenges. People seem like second nature – ‘unconscious gender targeting, the marketing industry is will pore over the insights and case studies competence’. The ones who will get there going back to school. As with any new skill, being shared via platforms such as the first will be marketers who establish there are four stages of learning, commonly Unstereotype Alliance, as well as enhancing progressiveness measurement systems to known as the Hierarchy of Competence. their copy testing with gender equality benchmark themselves and drive institutional metrics, and ensuring suitable checks and change, like Diageo and Unilever. Gender There are still many people in the marketing balances are in place prior to launch. This targeting is obviously just one aspect; other industry who don’t realise there is a problem will lead to proactive action, and the gradual factors such as race, sexual orientation and – ‘unconsciously incompetent’, if you like. eradication of the worst offending ads age are also vital considerations. Best in class But in 2019 evidence will continue to emerge (hopefully). marketers will embrace gender as part of a showing that gender targeting is not wider inclusion and diversity programme, sufficiently progressive. Women cannot relate By the end of 2019 many more advertisers and will expect the same of the agencies that to many of the ads they see, and progressive will be ‘consciously competent’. The transition work with them. male role models are also a rare sight. For will not be without some missteps. It will be Media Predictions 2019 14
HERE COMES AMAZON! Andy Gallagher, Kantar Germany Amazon becomes a fast mover in the digital other market they enter, they squarely have With evolution like this, marketers are never advertising race across all its platforms. their eye on being a big dominant player. far behind. Advertisers are now embracing the Google and Facebook: the duopoly of digital Amazon platform as a marketing vehicle for Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the ad revenue is now over, you now have a third branding, given these large engaged audiences. past few years, you’re aware of the rapid rise member knocking on the door - the much of Amazon in the marketplace. Amazon is heralded ‘triopoly’. Oh, and advertising revenue Amazon recently leapfrogged Microsoft into the the archetypal disruptive brand. By making is Amazon’s fastest growing sector, now #3 position for digital advertising share [source: people’s lives simpler, less expensive, and more totaling $2.2bn. eMarketer] with lots of wind in their sail to get convenient, Amazon has grown its brand value closer to the big 2 in the coming year. Amazon’s by 2,228%, far outdistancing the 2018 BrandZ™ How has Amazon been able to grow so advantage over Google and Facebook is the Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands (which quickly? While consumers have historically ability to link on-platform behaviours (like grew by a creditable 152% overall). viewed Amazon mainly as an ecommerce purchases, search, and content consumption) channel, their ecosystem has been rapidly back to the advertising campaign. We’ll While the Amazon brand is embedded in evolving. Amazon has become a powerful certainly be watching the battle to grab the many different pieces of everyday life, they medium for content consumption for millions most digital dollars next year. Clearly there is have recently expanded their presence into of new consumers across multiple platforms a new contender in the race. the advertising platform space. And, like every like Amazon Prime Video, Kindle, and Fire TV. Media Predictions 2019 16
THE VIDEO SAGA MOVES ON Nicole Jones, Kantar North America Video ads will start to develop their own decisions about the ending or the characters that consumers will remember. Consumers personality, rather than being an edit of in ads. Involvement allows the consumer to are 32% more likely to enjoy an ad on a TV the TV ad. be in control of what they see next or even set than via online platforms [Source: Kantar allows them to make a purchase within the Media DIMENSION study]. Video ads have gone through many ad unit. iterations; from simply putting the TV ad We know that integrated and customised online, to developing customised ads for each Vertical video is a great example of mobile campaigns are 57% more effective than device. Brands can no longer get away with first advertising which takes advantage of non-integrated campaigns [Source: Kantar a 30s TV ad, or a 6s cutdown to convey their the full screen and consumers attention. Millward Brown AdReaction 2018]. With the message. Consumers expect an authenticity Advances in technology have also allowed rise of ad-free platforms such as Netflix in video, rather than simple versioning for augmented reality to be available from and ad-free Hulu, it is even more important each platform. The proliferation of Snap and testing paint colors to seeing how furniture for advertisers to diversify how they Instagram story ads allow brands to entertain will look in your home to even news. reach consumers. Brand integrations and consumers in a more personal way. sponsorships are the lifeline to consumers, While video ads have continued to evolve, but only if they connect on an emotional In the past online videos talked more to we need to keep in mind that consumption level. In 2019 marketers will use video to consumers, while now technology has allowed habits have changed, with younger capture consumers’ attention and generate consumers to be involved in that conversation audiences consuming more mobile and an emotional journey, leading to better short- and interact with the video. AdReaction distractions vying for our attention. We need term and long-term response. 2017 shows us that 27% of GenZ like to take to understand how content can be created Media Predictions 2019 18
BACK TO THE…BIG SCREEN Hanne Teigum, Kantar Norway The big screen is making a comeback, Consumers turn to the best available screen olds, 9% of viewing takes place on a PC or bigger and better than before. for their TV and video viewing. Mac compared to 2% of the total population. Netflix content is predominantly watched on TV is the proven brand-building medium: the In Norway we measure all TV and video the big screen, with 61% of all Netflix viewing dominant cultural and advertising channel content, in-home and out of home, where in-home happening on a connected TV set. of choice. Far from the killing television, the the TV set continues to dominate 96% of YouTube content watched in the home is internet is now part of the TV and video all viewing across the population [Source: predominantly watched on PCs, tablets and ecosystem in its scramble to launch OTT Norway data Aug-Oct 2018]. Our figures smartphones whilst the TV set accounts for services and commission the next series. reveal that 56% of on-demand broadcaster only 12% of in-home viewing. content takes place on a TV set, 20% on PC When we started measuring television and Macs, 13 % on a tablet and 10% on a These figures from Norway reinforce why beyond the TV set in 2010, smart TVs had smartphone. Audiences aged 40+ still watch brands need to measure the effectiveness low penetration and tablets were new. The more than 95% of their overall viewing on of their marketing campaigns and exposure latest UK data now shows that smartphone a TV set. across screens, as we make the move from purchases may be reaching a plateau. Tablet TV Audience Measurement to Total Video sales grew steeply at first but may now be However, this isn’t a trend seen within the Audience Measurement in 2019. on the wane, and smart TV penetration has younger population. Total TV and video grown from under 10% to nearly 40% in 4 viewing on tablets represents 7% of the Yes, we are still watching television, but it’s TV years [Source: Ofcom Technology Tracker]. viewing for children 2-9 years old, compared in all of its forms. So what does 2019 hold? to 1% for the total population. For 20-29 year Media Predictions 2019 20
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL DRIVE MEDIA TARGETING Chris Borchert, Kantar North America New developments in marketing at a specific price point, through determined Today we bucket individuals into predefined automation will be helped by AI, using channels. When building any kind of model, segments, but with the future use of AI, we attitudinal and behavioural data. not just propensity models, the effectiveness will be able to continually optimise targeting. and accuracy of the model is dependent on This will enable the real-time reassignment of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the the quality of the data going into it. AI will individuals into new segments, based upon greatest developments of our time. In 2019, further help improve the modelling process both their thoughts and feelings about a the application of AI within the media and by identifying errors within the datasets brand or product, as well as the behaviours marketing industry will increase beyond a that feed these predictive models. All of this they exhibit both online and offline. We have 50% adoption rate and significantly affect will lead to further marketing automation, seen this type of positive AI impact help the following areas: predictive analytics, which will establish the most effective time clients to deliver marketing messages to the advanced marketing automation, and ad and place for delivering a specific type of most receptive audiences. However, with the targeting. These three areas will accelerate message to the right consumer. implementation of GDPR protecting personal the media decision-making process for data in Europe, advertisers need to be careful marketers and agencies. In 2019 we will also continue to see major that they are not compromising themselves developments within the ad targeting space, to achieve the most effective targeting. With AI, the accuracy of predictive modelling due to the application of AI. Programmatic and the amount of data that can be systems (DMPs) will be able to quickly run processed will increase exponentially. It’s through historical attitudinal and behavioral with this increased computing capability data to determine which ads perform best that AI will allow us to design highly tailored for different types of people throughout the marketing campaigns that will be driven by consumer journey. the probability of an individual to convert, Media Predictions 2019 22
INFLUENCE WITH CONFIDENCE Agustina Servente, Kantar Argentina Karina Kuczynski, Kantar Argentina Brands will seek to gain trust by using Influencer Fatigue (BIF). This can put the Brands will want to measure effectiveness micro-influencers, and its evaluation will brands they endorse at risk. and efficiency of micro-influencers and start to include brand performance. compare with other touchpoints and media In 2019 brands will use influencers in a more channels. They will need to justify the higher Two-thirds of multinational brands (65%) intelligent way by increasing their share of investment on this touchpoint. We see, are planning to increase their spending on investment in micro-influencers: experts in a via Brand Lift Insights studies, the great influencer marketing in the next year [Source: niche topic in a world of diversity, with lower effectiveness micro-influencers can achieve WFA]. But as influencers gain importance as individual reach but with higher credibility. when they are appropriate and in line with a brand marketing platform rather than just The successful micro-influencers will be the brand values. The brand performance of for PR, they need to watch out. ones who offer relevant content, with high micro-influencers could be similar to social quality aesthetics and meet their followers’ networks or online video. Influencers continue to gain followers and needs: entertainment or new information. so maintain a lively business recommending These influencers won´t change because of To gain trust and brand credibility, micro- brands and products, from shampoo to the brands. As micro-influencers tend to have influencers could be a good option in 2019. telephones. They’ve turned into celebrities, a genuine and specific profile, it will be easier However, they will need managing, and but as a result their credibility has been for brands to associate with them - and the strategies need to be constantly refreshed compromised, and transparency hasn’t other way around. and adapted to the audience’s needs. always been obvious, generating Branded Media Predictions 2019 24
TARGETING WITH PURPOSE IS THE KEY TO BUILDING STRONG BRANDS Mark Henning, Kantar Australia Brands will embrace more sophisticated simply as ‘targeted eyeballs’ ignores the on keyword searches. Users searching for data sources for smarter targeting, human context. Beyoncé’s ‘Single Ladies’ were asked if they combined with digital creativity. needed ‘dinner for one’. Here, targeting In 2019, trust and privacy will be an even maximised the impact and relevance of Over the last decade, data collection bigger challenge in media. Highly publicised the message. and targeting has been marketing’s hot data breaches and flaws in privacy mean property. The ready availability of data consumers are more distrustful than ever, Get intimate with data by using your own: promises to only speak to the seemingly and the introduction of GDPR (with big third party data can be a commodity, not most interested consumers, leading to a penalties for misuse of data) means that unique and ripe with privacy issues. Data trend of hyper-targeting. In 2019 however, data is no longer as freely available. So from a trusted partner or your own client / targeting will find a new purpose. as marketers get to grips with GDPR, a customer data should be of higher quality, pull-back in hyper-targeting practices will but the data sets will be smaller, and if Hyper-targeting focuses only on purchase continue in 2019. you’re only using customer databases decisions and neglects to speak to a you’re not expanding your market, so this broader range of people to build interest There will be more emphasis on attitudinal will need to be accompanied by a broader in a product or service. There have been and contextual targeting. With soup communications strategy. Every piece of large variances in data quality, leading sales declining in Australia, Campbell’s content counts. In 2019 marketers will focus to under delivery on results and poor user created 1,700 variations of a single video on measuring its effectiveness to ensure it experience. Treatment of consumers for YouTube, targeting audiences based delivers on the targeting promise. Media Predictions 2019 26
A NEW REALITY FOR MARKETERS Leonie Gates-Sumner, Kantar UK Brands will start to explore and it may be the year of AR; enabled by the examples of AR are where it addresses a real understand Augmented Reality’s role availability of AR on mobile web, consumers consumer need, like an app from US retailer in brand building. will become increasingly familiar with Lowe which uses your smartphone camera to immersive experiences. measure a room or object – much easier than One day in the future, screens and headsets a tape measure! This kind of application may will become defunct, replaced by contact Both AR and VR open new opportunities for not lead to a direct sale, but is a great way to lenses which deliver a merged version of consumers and marketers. Ikea use both to build meaningful difference for a brand. For the digital and real world, moderated by allow customers to visualise furniture in their VR, the power is in its ability to tell a story. AI, ensuring we receive the most relevant home, and by linking this to ecommerce Storytelling will always be at the heart of experiences for us. But we’re not there yet. they offer a truly end-to-end experience. every great ad, and VR could be our greatest Travel companies like Thomas Cook are opportunity yet to immerse consumers in a First, a quick definition: Augmented Reality using in-store headsets to allow customers to brand story and create engaging experiences, (AR) is a digital overlay onto a real-world experience destinations before they buy, and moving from solitary to multi-user. view and is accessible via most screens even including Google cardboard headsets (think Pokémon Go), while Virtual Reality is with their brochures. And many fashion, Recent research by Kantar shows that only currently an immersive computer-generated beauty and home brands are using AR, 24% of marketers see AR as a must-have for experience with no real-world view, accessed allowing consumers to ‘try’ their products brands, with VR even lower at 18%. But as through a headset. anywhere. with all new marketing channels, impact will be greatest at the start, and brands which While VR may play a role in B2B applications, Most of these experiences are product- experiment now will reap the benefits when 2019 will not be the year of VR for consumers, focused, but what about using these immersive experiences become the norm. as demand is still not great enough. But new realities for brand building? The best Media Predictions 2019 28
CONTACTS Jane Ostler Jane.Ostler@kantar.com Heather Parke Heather.Parke@kantar.com Kantar Media Predictions 2019
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