Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
For week ending May 13, 2022
Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Produce

MARKET OVERVIEW
We are seeing more volume available on limes as well as some
                                                                                     MARKET ALERT
long-needed price relief on smaller sizes. Production seems       •   Avocados – ESCALATED
to be slowly improving; however, the overall conditions of the    •   Asparagus - ESCALATED
market will continue to be extreme through May on large-sized     •   Bell Pepper (Green) – ESCALATED
                                                                  •   Cantaloupes –ESCALATED
fruit, and we do not expect any significant volume on larger-
                                                                  •   Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
sized fruit until sometime in June. Tomato and squash markets
                                                                  •   Celery - ESCALATED
continue to be stable as we see strong production in the east     •   Garlic – EXTREME
and a relatively smooth transition in Mexico. Good Volume on      •   Ginger – EXTREME
cucumbers as local growers in South Georgia are breaking          •   Honeydews – ESCALATED
fields. Pepper is easing back as Volume starts up in North        •   Hot Peppers - ESCALATED
Florida and should continue to improve. Corn is hitting good      •   Limes – ESCALATED
stride, and Volume is available out of Belle Glade, Florida, as   •   Mushrooms – ESCALATED
well as the desert. Good Volume on cabbage and squash out         •   Oranges - ESCALATED
of South Georgia, and we expect the first picks on peppers
and cucumbers over the next two weeks.                                                  WATCH LIST
                                                                  • Green Beans
                                                                  • Snow Peas
                                                                  • Sugar Snap Peas

                                                                      TRANSPORTATION
                                                                      We experienced an exponential decline in
                                                                      average market rates across the board for
                                                                      refrigerated and dry freight during April and
                                                                      May. As we look to close out the first week of
                                                                      May, it appears the rate plunge, as well as the
                                                                      outbound tender rejection percentage, have
                                                                      reached somewhat of a plateau. Outbound
                                                                      Florida /Georgia saw some rate spikes this
                                                                      week but likely due to Mother’s Day related
                                                                      flower shipments flooding the market, which
                                                                      we do expect to return back to normal
                                                                      next week. While load/truck ratios remain
                                                                      about the same in favor of shippers in most
                                                                      regions, it’s less of a free for all where drivers/
                                                                      carriers are taking loads for any rate or out of
                                                                      desperation to keep their equipment moving.
                                                                      This pushback from carriers may signal the
                                                                      beginning of the spring/summer push in the
                                                                      market for the produce season. While this
                                                                      year’s produce season is off to a historically
                                                                      slow start in regards to rates, we are seeing
                                                                      an increase in shipments out of South Florida,
                                                                      Texas, New Mexico, and Central/Southern
                                                                      California. Look for these markets to continue
                                                                      to tighten up over the next few weeks.

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Produce (continued)

  SALINAS, CA FORECAST

FRUITS & VEGETABLES                                                  Pineapples
                                                                     Pineapple availability continues to be okay. The size profile is
Apples & Pears
                                                                     trending to size 5 and 6cts and availability on 7cts remains
Apples: West coast new crop apples are being packed;
                                                                     limited.
however small sizes remain tight. East coast apples are
available as well. Market price remains firm on small fruit as
local schools take most of the volume.
Pears: This year’s pear crop was down significantly, with mostly
                                                                     BERRIES
larger fruit available. Growers are trying to drag out supply as     Blackberries
best as possible until new crop starts next August.                  Growers are in post-peak production from central Mexico. After
                                                                     the current week, they’ll begin descending from the Mexico
Avocados                                                             regions. The California region has been experiencing a delay
ESCALATED: Total volumes to the U.S. closed at                       from the cold weather and rain for the previous two weeks.
58.2-million-pounds for last week, and with two weeks of
decent volumes, pricing is now on the other side of the peak.        Blueberries
The size curve is trending toward larger size fruit 48 counts        Central Mexico volumes are decreasing, and Florida is on the
and larger, and with this shift to larger sizes (something that      back end of their season peak, where we will see Volume for 1
we haven’t seen in 6+ months), the pricing between sizes             more week. Baja production is in their spring peak in the next
will adjust the most. Larger sizes will continue to come down        three weeks. Georgia is in their peak, and San Joaquin Valley
in price while the 60s and smaller may see an increase.              will have light Volume this week and is expected to ramp up
Additionally, Peru’s sizing is trending towards larger-sized fruit   quickly the following week.
that will arrive from Peru in a few weeks. With these added
volumes, we should see larger-sized fruit pricing decrease
further. Harvest out of Mexico has been very light for a few
days due to the push to get field pricing down in Mexico, and
this week will come in under the 55.6-million-pound harvest
projections. If there’s a decent pull for growers to reload after
Cinco, we could see pricing strengthen as we move into next
week – especially on small fruit 60 counts and smaller.

Bananas
Steady volume and good quality available. However, we are
seeing firm pricing this quarter due to record high fuel prices.

Grapes
The weather in Chile is ideal for grapes and has been for a few
weeks, increasing the supply imported into the U.S. Red Grape
pricing continues to be fairly low with plenty of supply. Green
grapes remain higher as fewer supplies have been shipped.

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Produce (continued)

Raspberries                                                         WEST COAST LETTUCE
Central Mexico will be entering its peak production starting
                                                                    Butter Lettuce
next week and will descend rapidly, losing half of its volume
                                                                    Quality is very good, and the market is steady.
by the beginning of June. Baja will continue to uptrend until
the end of May and decline quickly after the peak. Oxnard and
                                                                    Green Leaf
Watsonville will continue to uptrend and keep volume afloat
                                                                    Quality is very good with slightly lighter supplies; the market is
as Mexico volume declines. Watsonville kicked off the season
                                                                    slightly stronger.
with light numbers, and Santa Maria will start harvest in the
second week of May. Oxnard will continue to uptrend and
                                                                    Iceberg
harvest heavy volume at peak production in the second week
                                                                    We are also seeing lighter supplies on iceberg with
of June.
                                                                    much-increased demand; the market is stronger. Look for the
                                                                    market to continue strong through next week.
Strawberries
Volumes continue to increase as the Northern District and
                                                                    Red Leaf
Santa Maria increase in volume slightly. Although some
                                                                    Quality is very good with slightly lighter supplies; the market is
damage was observed following the rain event, growers
                                                                    slightly stronger.
have managed to clean up the fields and resume a regular
harvest schedule. Watsonville, Salinas, and Santa Maria report
                                                                    Romaine and Romaine Hearts
large-sized fruit with excellent quality. Oxnard continues to
                                                                    Quality is very good with slightly lighter supplies; the market is
decrease due to the lingering damage from the previous rain
                                                                    slightly stronger.
event.

CALIFORNIA CITRUS
Grapefruit
Ruby grapefruit is now available. Size is peaking on 32s, and
larger fancy and all small sizes 36s and smaller are tight. Texas
is expected to start very late.

Imports/Specialties
Blood oranges are available in good supply. Imported clems
will be available soon.

Lemons
Are in full swing, quality has been good.

Limes
ESCALATED: Volume seems to be improving on smaller sizes,
and we are seeing downward pressure due to the increased
volume. However, the new crop limes are not sizing up, and
growers continue to cut ahead into the smaller fruit to keep the
supply chain full. We hope to see this trend continue as newer
groves are being harvested and the overall volume improves.
Unfortunately, we are expecting larger sizes will continue to be
short until Mid-June.

Oranges
ESCALATED Small oranges remain fairly tight, with market
pricing in the low $20’s for choice grade. Few navels remain,
but many growers are on to Valencias. Size structure peaking
56/72, with about 75% being fancy grade.

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Produce (continued)

EASTERN & WESTERN VEGETABLES                                       Zucchini/Yellow Squash
                                                                   Markets on zucchini and yellow squash are steady. Imports
Bell Peppers
                                                                   out of Mexico are picking up. East coast shippers out of both
ESCALATED Green bell pepper market has adjusted down
                                                                   Florida and Georgia are producing strong numbers. Demand
primarily on off-grade product. Good quality #1 pepper is
                                                                   and quality remain strong.
still demanding the premium price. The demand has been
average. Georgia production is right around the corner, and
Mexico is winding down with their volumes.
                                                                   HERBS
Eggplant                                                           Good availability and consistent supply of all herbs, except dill,
Good supply available out of Florida and Mexico. Georgia and       which has been a challenge due to quality
Coachella are about 3 weeks from starting.

French Beans                                                       MELONS
Excellent supply and quality out of Guatemala.                     Cantaloupe
                                                                   ESCALATED: Increased Mexican crossings combined with
Green Beans                                                        higher freight rates, especially from Florida due to Mother’s Day
WATCHLIST: Bean supply in the east is tight as the last of the     flower pulls, have started to pressure the cantaloupe markets
Florida crops finishes. We should see better volume once we        from their highs. Sizing on cantaloupe is moving away from
transition to South Georgia in 10-14 days. Mexico is about         mainly jumbo fruit and providing a nice mix of 9, 12, and 15
done with the transition to Coachella in full swing, followed by   counts. The current quality is the best growers have seen all
Fresno. FOB prices are expected to remain elevated for the         season, with excellent shell color and solid internal brix.
next few weeks.
                                                                   Honeydew
Jalapenos/Chili Peppers                                            ESCALATED Increased Mexican crossings combined with
ESCALATED: We will continue to see marginal quality and light      higher freight rates, especially from Florida due to Mother’s Day
supply out of Florida. In McAllen and Nogales, prices remain       flower pulls, have started to pressure the honeydew markets
firm this week due to the transition. We hope to see better        from their highs. Honeydew sizing continues to run heavier to
Volume over the next several weeks as newer regions ramp up        the larger fruit 5 counts and larger leaving smaller sizes light
production.                                                        supply.

Mini Sweet Peppers                                                 Watermelon
Good supply and quality available.                                 Good Volume available out of Florida, and quality is very nice.
                                                                   Good Volume is also crossing through McAllen and Nogales
Pickles                                                            on Minis and Seedless.
Supply was lighter this week crossing through Nogales and
quality is very nice. We are seeing better numbers out of
South Florida this week as well.

Cucumbers
ESCALATED: Cucumber production is transitioning from
Florida to Georgia this week, and there’s not a ton of fruit
around. Quality is suspect on much of the remaining Florida
product, as the wind and weather have caused excessive
scarring, some sunken areas, etc. Fortunately, Georgia did
start with a few cucumbers this week. With more growers and
volume to come over the next 7-10 days, we should see better
quality and availability soon. FOBs have dropped a few more
dollars this week, primarily due to the Mexican markets.

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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WEek ending May 13, 2022

Produce (continued)

MIXED VEGETABLES                                                       Carrots
                                                                       ESCALATED: Current demand exceeds predicted supply while
Artichokes
                                                                       lower than average yields caused by cold, wet weather has
Quality has improved significantly, with good supply.
                                                                       limited availability. Shippers continue to struggle with labor due
                                                                       to COVID and not having enough workers show up daily to
Arugula
                                                                       pack carrots.
Quality has improved with much better available supplies,
market is steady
                                                                       Cauliflower
                                                                       Quality is very good but with increased demand, Cauliflower
Asparagus
                                                                       Market is strengthening but will remain active through next
ESCALATED: Oregon continues with slow production/heat in
                                                                       week.
the fields, causing lower than normal yields due to seeding.
Southern Baja has better production this week, and this should
                                                                       Celery
continue for the next 2-3 weeks. Guanajuato is still scheduled
                                                                       ESCALATED Celery market is considerably stronger, but we
to start the last week in May. Peruvian production continues to
                                                                       are starting to see quality issues in the fields in Oxnard. We are
increase every week in the north, and the south is still seeing
                                                                       seeing seeders in all fields which is reducing available supply.
cooler weather. The market continues to be very active with the
                                                                       Look for market to remain strong for approx. the next 2 to 3
transition and the Mother’s Day rush. Airspace is still very limited
                                                                       weeks while growers navigate through the quality problems.
with the Mother’s Day flower rush continuing.
                                                                       Corn
Broccoli/Broccoli Florets
                                                                       Good volume available out of Florida and California. South
Quality is very good, with a good supply. We are anticipating
                                                                       Georgia will ramp up in approximately 3 weeks. Quality is
a slight increase in the market next week, but currently the
                                                                       outstanding.
market is steady going into this weekend.
                                                                       Fennel
Brussels Sprouts
                                                                       Supplies are lighter, quality is very good. Market is steady.
Sprout volume will remain below budget this week for the
coming week. Expect reduced fill rates on both Virginia and
                                                                       Garlic
bulk categories. Quality has improved, but some soft texture
                                                                       EXTREME: Domestic supply is very tight, and shippers are
and lighter density are noted. Expect to see continued strong
                                                                       holding to averages, but we expect this volatile market to
demand on tight supplies.
                                                                       continue through next summer.

                                                                       Ginger
                                                                       EXTREME: Ginger is very volatile due to very inconsistent
                                                                       supply, and the market is higher. Supply remains tight for the
                                                                       foreseeable future.

                                                                       Green Cabbage
                                                                       Steady availability continues out of Florida, South Georgia,
                                                                       and Texas. In the west, weights are improving because of crop
                                                                       movement, although we are seeing cone shape heads for this
                                                                       week..

                                                                       Green Onions
                                                                       Supply is good with very good quality, Market is steady.

                                                                       Jicama
                                                                       Steady supply available crossing through McAllen.

                                                                       Kale (Green)
                                                                       Supply is steady, quality is very good.

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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WEek ending May 13, 2022

Produce (continued)

Mushrooms                                                         Spinach (Bunched & Baby)
ESCALATED: Quality is good, although supply is down and           Supply and quality are good.
markets are higher primarily due to a lack of labor, shortages
in the growing components such as peat moss, and other            Spring Mix
inflationary pressure. We expect to see this continue to be       Supply and quality are good.
a challenge until some of the growing costs can get under
control of this particularly labor intensive and cost sensitive   Sweet Potatoes & Yams
item.                                                             Demand continues to be stable across all sizes and varieties.
                                                                  There are deals to be had on both #1’s and Jumbos out of
Napa Cabbage                                                      North Carolina. FOB’s out of Mississippi are a bit higher but
We are seeing decreased availability until we see supply          quality out of that region has been outstanding. We should see
increase out of Salinas.                                          prices gradually start to rise throughout the summer months
                                                                  and into the new crop.
Parsely (Curly, Italian)
Parsley supplies are expected to be steady this week.
                                                                  ONIONS
Rapini                                                            Texas onions were slow to start this week with the recent
Excellent supply this week and next.                              rainy weather down South. Most sheds were limited or sold
                                                                  out until later this week. Texas onions should finish up in the
Red Cabbage                                                       next couple of weeks before we move to California and New
Supply is good as quality remains consistent with sizing and      Mexico. California began ramping up their production this
overall appearance.                                               week out of the Brawley. There is also a good amount of
                                                                  round onions shipping out of Vidalia, Georgia. This year, they
Snow Peas & Sugar Snap Peas                                       increased their acreage and have availability on all three colors,
WATCHLIST: Guatemala production started to see some               which makes sense for customers in the East.
quality issues due to rain in the snow peas at the field level.
The sugar snap supply has improved from last week. Mexico
production is light with quality fair to good. U.S. product has   POTATOES
started with fair supply and good quality.
                                                                  This week, we saw FOBs rise out of Idaho on all carton
                                                                  sizes. As predicted, we are seeing limited availability on larger
                                                                  cartons, especially 40-80 counts. It is looking like it will be
                                                                  a very active potato market this summer as growers look to
                                                                  stretch their crops until the new crop begins. Colored, as well
                                                                  as fingerling potatoes, remain very tight.

                                                                  TOMATOES
                                                                  Roma tomato market out of Mexico is active. This should be
                                                                  short lived as we expect to see stronger crossings in the next
                                                                  couple of weeks. The round crossings have been heavier
                                                                  towards the 5x5s, 5x6s, or smaller spec size. Bigger rounds
                                                                  have been limited. Round tomato supplies continue to improve
                                                                  out of Florida. Availability has gotten better, and we are seeing
                                                                  flexibility in pricing. Florida Romas are lagging a bit, however,
                                                                  we should start seeing stronger volumes in the next couple of
                                                                  weeks.

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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WEek ending May 13, 2022

Beef, Veal & Lamb
Beef production last week declined 1.4% (w/w) but was up 1.6% (y/y). Year-to-date beef output is running 0.8% bigger than a year ago
which compares to the USDA’s H1 (’22) beef production (y/y) gain of 0.5%. The weekly average USDA Choice cutout was down 2.4%
(w/w) and was 9.8% lower (y/y). Beef demand is showing signs of weakness which isn’t a surprise considering the USDA choice boxed
beef cutout is the third most expensive for this time of year on record. The beef trim and ground beef markets are historically inflated, and
beef trim import prices are elevated as well. Per the USDA, on March 3rd domestic cold storage boneless beef inventories were 8.1%
larger (y/y) and grew by 0.6% during the month. It appears (at least so far) that this year’s springtime beef price increases are going to
remain modest and the seasonal peak may have already occurred. In Q2 so far the USDA Choice boxed beef cutout is averaging 0.6%
lower compared to Q1 which is counter-seasonal price action. Since 2011 the USDA Choice boxed-beef cutout averaged 10.8% higher
in May compared to the prior April but this same USDA Choice boxed beef cutout averaged 6.0% lower in June versus the previous May.
The Average, USDA, FOB per pound.
         Description           Market Trend        Supplies        Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer)             Increasing            Short              Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME)       Increasing           Steady              Higher
Ground Beef 81/19               Increasing           Steady              Higher
Ground Chuck                    Decreasing           Steady              Higher
109 Export Rib (ch)             Increasing            Short               Lower
109 Export Rib (pr)             Increasing      Steady-Available          Lower
112a Ribeye (ch)                Decreasing            Short               Lower
112a Ribeye (pr)                Decreasing      Steady-Available         Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch)      Increasing           Steady               Lower
116 Chuck (sel)                 Decreasing          Available             Lower
116 Chuck (ch)                  Decreasing          Available             Lower
116b Chuck Tender (ch)          Decreasing           Steady              Higher
120 Brisket (ch)                Decreasing          Available             Lower
120a Brisket (ch)               Decreasing      Steady-Available          Lower
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel)     Increasing            Short               Lower
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel)      Decreasing            Short               Lower
121e Cap & Wedge                Decreasing           Steady              Higher
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch)       Decreasing           Steady              Higher
168 Inside Round (ch)           Decreasing           Steady              Higher
169 Top Round (ch)              Decreasing           Steady              Higher
171b Outside Round (ch)         Decreasing      Steady-Available         Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1)         Decreasing            Short               Lower
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3)         Increasing           Steady              Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch)              Decreasing            Short               Lower
180 0x1 Strip (pr)              Increasing            Short               Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch)     Increasing           Steady               Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr)     Increasing           Steady               Lower
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch)       Increasing       Steady-Short             Lower
185a Sirloin Flap (ch)          Decreasing       Steady-Short             Lower
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch)         Increasing           Steady               Lower
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up)    Increasing       Steady-Short             Lower
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up)      Increasing            Short              Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy)         Increasing         Available             Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch)            Increasing            Short              Higher
50% Trimmings                   Decreasing       Steady-Short            Higher
65% Trimmings                   Decreasing           Steady              Higher
75% Trimmings                   Decreasing           Steady              Higher
85% Trimmings                   Decreasing           Steady              Higher
90% Trimmings                   Decreasing           Steady              Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz)         Decreasing      Steady-Available         Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz)         Decreasing         Available             Higher
Live Cattle (Steer)             Increasing            Short              Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME)       Increasing           Steady              Higher                                                             8
Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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WEek ending May 13, 2022

Grains
The grain markets were mixed last week with corn and soybean oil up big on the news covered in last Tuesday’s Commodi-
tyOne Report (Indonesia banning all palm oil exports and Crop Progress Report showing no great strides made in plantings).
A new Crop Progress Report will be released today at 4 PM EST and given much of the corn belt was still cold and wet last
week, expect plantings to still lag behind the 39% five-year average in today’s report. The 8-14 day precipitation outlook from
the NOAA puts rainfall at near-normal levels for most of the corn belt, so hopefully, next week will give farmers a chance to get
their corn crops in the ground. Expect nearby corn futures to possibly breach price resistance at $8.375 (R1) in the quarterly
pivot this week if the gap between the five-year average planting progress of 39% and the current progress widens. We might
start to see some price reactions in the soybean markets too, with the five-year average soybean planting progress for today’s
report at 14% and last week’s 2022 season progress at 3%. Prices USDA, FOB.

       Description         Market Trend      Supplies        Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel            Decreasing     Steady-Short            Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb       Increasing         Short               Higher
Soybean Meal, ton           Decreasing        Steady               Higher
Corn, bushel                Increasing         Short               Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb          Increasing         Short               Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup    Increasing         Short               Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry       Decreasing         Short               Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD      Increasing     Steady-Short            Higher
HRW Wheat, bushel           Decreasing         Short               Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel       Increasing     Steady-Short            Higher
Durum Wheat, bushel         Decreasing    Steady-Available         Higher
Pinto Beans, lb             Decreasing         Short               Steady
Black Beans, lb             Increasing         Short               Higher
Rice, Long Grain, lb          Steady           Short               Higher

Dairy
Last week, the cheese block market finished unchanged but the cheese barrel market closed 1.0% lower (w/w) both markets are
at levels not seen in 17 months. The good news within the dairy sector recently is finally seeing signs of weakening international
dairy markets. Last Thursday’s USDA’s surveyed bi-weekly international dairy report showed the following dairy market prices
(percentage difference from the previous report): cheese at $2.818 down 2.1%, butter at $3.289, down 1.6%, whey at $.743,
down 4.4% and nonfat dry milk at $1.983, down 3.3%. The USDA in its April WASDE report raised its U.S. H2 2022 milk produc-
tion forecast higher by 0.13% and is now projected to be 1.0% larger (y/y). Although the U.S. milk, cheese, and butter markets
typically increase from now through the summer, this year’s seasonal price gains may be limited due to already expensive prices
occurring. That said the future direction of the international dairy markets will either support or soften U.S. dairy export demand
which will continue to influence the equivalent U.S. dairy markets. Class I Cream (hundredweight), from USDA.

         Description       Market Trend       Supplies       Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME)        Decreasing         Short               Higher
Cheese Blocks (CME)           Steady           Short               Higher
American Cheese             Decreasing         Short               Higher
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb)      Increasing         Short               Higher
Mozzarella Cheese           Increasing         Short               Higher
Monterey Jack Cheese        Increasing         Short               Higher
Parmesan Cheese             Increasing         Short               Higher
Butter (CME)                Decreasing      Steady-Short           Higher
Nonfat Dry Milk             Decreasing      Steady-Short           Higher
Whey, Dry                   Decreasing        Available            Higher
Class 1 Base                  Steady           Short               Higher
Class II Cream, heavy       Decreasing         Short               Higher
Class III Milk (CME)        Decreasing         Short               Higher
Class IV Milk (CME)         Decreasing      Steady-Short           Higher

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Market trends For week ending May 13, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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WEek ending May 13, 2022

Pork
Pork production last week was 1.2% larger (w/w) but was 0.2% smaller (y/y). Year-to-date pork output is running down 5.5%
(y/y) which is less than the USDA’s H1 (’22) pork production forecast of down 3.9% (y/y). The weekly average USDA pork
cutout last week lost 3.8% (w/w) and was 3.7% lower (y/y). Despite lagging (y/y) pork production and expected tightening
hog supplies moving forward, the wholesale seasonal pork market gains have not been impressive at least so far this spring.
U.S. pork export demand has fallen since last year, especially from China. Domestic pork production is expected to improve
however in the second half of 2022 which may limit any notable price gains for pork like was experienced last summer when
the USDA pork cutout established an all-time high. Since 2011, the average move for the USDA pork cutout during May
compared to the prior April is up 8.5%. Prices USDA, FOB per pound.

         Description           Market Trend     Supplies     Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs                         Steady         Steady             Lower
Sow                             Decreasing        Short            Higher
Belly (bacon)                   Decreasing       Steady            Higher
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down)        Increasing        Short             Lower
Ham (20-23 lb)                  Increasing        Short             Lower
Ham (23-27 lb)                  Increasing        Short             Lower
Loin (bone in)                  Decreasing       Steady            Higher
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up)     Decreasing      Available           Lower
Tenderloin (1.25 lb)            Increasing      Available           Lower
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb)    Decreasing       Steady            Higher
Picnic, untrmd                  Increasing        Short             Lower
SS Picnic, smoker trm box       Increasing    Steady-Short          Lower
42% Trimmings                   Increasing       Steady             Lower
72% Trimmings                   Increasing        Short            Higher

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market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Poultry
Chicken slaughter for the week ending April 23rd was 0.09% lower (w/w) and the average bird weight was lighter by 0.3% (y/y).
Ready-to-cook chicken production increased 0.6% (w/w) but was 2.4% less than a year ago. Year-to-date ready-to-cook broiler
production is running 1.1% larger (y/y) which is slightly more than the USDA’s H1 (’22) chicken output forecast gain by 1.0%
(y/y). Last week the USDA national whole broiler/fryer index rose 1.1% (w/w) and was 61.1% higher than the same week last
year. Well, boneless skinless chicken breast prices continued to make all-time highs last week and have not shown any signs
of slowing down. The USDA reported that breast meat cuts are tight too short but they also described retail and foodservice
chicken demand as mostly moderate which sure doesn’t represent the rapidly rising breast prices. Friday’s USDA average
chicken breast price was a whopping $0.50 or 18.3% costlier than the 90% beef trim market which is rare, to “say the least”!
History suggests that there may still be upside chicken breast market increases pending but prices usually peak for the year in
May. Current USDA chicken wing prices are the lowest in 21 months so the downside risk for wings from current levels may be
nominal. FOB per pound except when noted.

        Description           Market Trend      Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat            Increasing        Short              Higher
Wings (jumbo cut)              Decreasing       Available            Lower
Wing Index (ARA)               Decreasing       Available            Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE     Increasing        Short              Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE     Increasing        Short              Higher
Breast Boneless Index (ARA)    Increasing        Short              Higher
Tenderloin Index (ARA)         Increasing        Short              Higher
Legs (whole)                   Increasing        Short              Higher
Leg Quarter Index (ARA)        Increasing        Short              Higher
Thighs, Bone In                Increasing        Short              Higher
Thighs, Boneless               Increasing        Short              Higher

        Description           Market Trend      Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb)         Decreasing        Short              Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls      Increasing        Short              Higher

Eggs

        Description           Market Trend      Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen)               Steady           Short             Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen)              Steady           Short             Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs                Steady           Short             Higher
Liquid Egg Whites                Steady           Short             Higher
Liquid Egg Yolks                 Steady      Steady-Available       Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central      Increasing     Steady-Short          Higher

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market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Seafood
The various U.S. seafood markets have remained supported due partly to the solid overall protein demand. China, the world’s
largest seafood processor, and re-shipper are experiencing big-time ocean freight tie-ups (due to Covid) as tight population
lockdowns are occurring in Shanghai where the world’s largest shipping yard exists. The U.S. dollar has remained relatively
firm against most foreign currencies including the Japanese yen which is encouraging more seafood imports to the U.S. ver-
sus Japan which is a big seafood consumer. The aforementioned potential China-related seafood supply crunch could push
back even further the U.S pending Russian import ban on their seafood supplies. So, anticipate the various seafood markets
to remain supported and unfortunately have the risk of becoming more volatile and notably costly in the coming months un-
less the China Shanghai shipping operations improve significantly. Prices FAS monthly imports.

         Description          Market Trend   Supplies    Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz)              Steady         Short           Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz)              Steady        Steady           Higher
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz)        Steady         Short           Higher
Snow Crab, frz                   Steady      Available         Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz               Steady        Short           Higher
Cod Filet, frz                   Steady        Short           Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh             Steady       Steady           Higher
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh      Steady        Short           Higher
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz       Steady        Short           Higher

                                                                                                                               12
market trends
WEek ending May 13, 2022

Paper and Plastic Products

           Description             Market Trend  Supplies                Price vs. Last Year
                                 WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin                   Steady        Short                       Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box     Steady        Short                       Higher
                           PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont.      Increasing          Short              Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils              Steady            Short              Higher
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags             Steady            Short              Higher

Retail Price Change from Prior Month

           Description                    Mar-22            Feb-22             Jan-21
Beef and Veal                            Increasing       Increasing         Decreasing
Dairy                                    Increasing       Increasing         Increasing
Pork                                     Increasing       Increasing         Increasing
Chicken                                  Increasing       Increasing         Decreasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood                   Increasing       Decreasing         Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables              Increasing       Increasing         Increasing

Various Markets
The softs markets were steady to lower last week with coffee leading the losses as overall inflation is likely hindering consumer
demand and causing downward price pressure. Orange juice prices experienced notable gains last week due mostly to citrus
greening in Florida and a drought-stricken harvest in Brazil. Florida’s Department of Citrus puts the state’s orange juice stocks
at 30% lower than last year and that comes after the USDA lowered its Florida orange production forecast by another 7.3%
from March to April due to the recent cold snap. The May citrus forecast report is due on Thursday of next week. Cocoa prices
remained steady to slightly up on the week as the market continues to grapple with concerns of drier weather for West Africa’s
mid-crop harvest, but those forecasts have yet to materialize. The sugar markets continue to be plagued by ideas that Brazilian
Real strength will keep Brazilian sugar out of the export market, despite improved crop forecasts in the country. The improved
production forecasts elsewhere kept sugar prices down last week and may help push global sugar prices back to $18.10.
Price bases noted below.

        Description              Market Trend            Supplies        Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10)         Steady                 Short                Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb)       Steady                 Short                Higher
Coffee lb ICE                        Increasing       Steady-Available         Higher
Sugar lb ICE                         Decreasing           Steady               Higher
Cocoa mt ICE                         Decreasing           Steady               Higher
Orange Juice lb ICE                  Decreasing            Short               Higher
Honey (clover) lb                     Steady               Short               Higher

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