MARKET INSIGHT LEISURE PARKS - Fleurets

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MARKET INSIGHT LEISURE PARKS - Fleurets
MARKET INSIGHT
LEISURE PARKS
MARKET INSIGHT LEISURE PARKS - Fleurets
Monday this week saw the             The CVA, amongst a host of
                                              approval of the proposed Company     other proposals, provided for
                                              Voluntary Arrangement (CVA) of       the exit of 148 leases identified
                                              The Restaurant Group (UK) Limited    as Category 4 by no later than
                                              by its creditors and shareholders.   March 2021. Alongside this, the
                                              More than 82% of all creditors       parent plc company also placed
                                              voted in favour of the proposal,     into administration Chiquito
                                              with 75% approval required for       Limited in April 2020, including
                                              the CVA to proceed, giving clear     61 restaurants trading under this
                                              support to the managements’          brand across the country.
                                              plan to take a large cut through
                                              the company’s leisure estate         Whilst not all are located within
                                              which comprises about 313            leisure parks, the vast majority of
                                              branded restaurants, including 236   the restaurants within Chiquito and
                                              restaurants operating under the      within Category 4 of the proposed
                                              Frankie & Benny’s brand.             CVA are located in out of town

Cover image: Woodside Leisure Park, Watford
This page: Valley Leisure Park, Croydon
MARKET INSIGHT LEISURE PARKS - Fleurets
leisure parks. The consequences are                                         35                                                                            7%
that it is not inconceivable that over
                                                                            30                                                                            6%
200 substantial restaurant premises
formerly operated by The Restaurant                                         25                                                                            5%
Group will remain closed long after
other competing businesses have                                             20                                                                            4%                                   However, this conclusion would be not

                                         Number of New Leisure Park Sites
reopened post Covid-19. These                                                                                                                                                                  only overly simplistic and convenient,

                                                                                                                                                                % Like for Like sales growth
units will sit empty, untenanted and                                        15                                                                            3%                                   but also staggeringly myopic as it
with many institutional landlord’s                                                                                                                                                             would overlook key issues of excessive
                                                                            10                                                                            2%
scratching their heads as to what                                                                                                                                                              supply, over development of leisure
they can do with previously highly                                           5                                                                            1%                                   park schemes within locations and
rented units. The head scratching                                                                                                                                                              catchments which simply never
will not be happening in a small                                             0                                                                            0%                                   provided sufficient population to
number of property companies. The                                                                                                                                                              enable even the most successful
list of landlord companies reads like                                                                                                                     -1%                                  operators to trade profitably. The fault
a list of Who’s Who in the world of                                                                                                                                                            is collective. Developers, planners,
                                                                                                                                                          -2%
commercial property, with pension                                                                                                                                                              tenants, investors, and even central
funds managed by Threadneedle,                                                                                                                            -3%                                  Government for over seeing planning
Prudential, Legal & General, Aviva,                                                                                                                                                            policy which enabled fundamentally
Standard Life and Canade Life all hit.                                                                                                                    -4%                                  poor schemes to be given permission
As are the pension funds of some                                                                                                                                                               in the first place.
                                                                                 2010

                                                                                        2011

                                                                                               2012

                                                                                                      2013

                                                                                                             2014

                                                                                                                     2015

                                                                                                                            2016

                                                                                                                                   2017

                                                                                                                                           2018

                                                                                                                                                   2019
of the best known companies in the
UK including Tesco, BAE Systems                                                                                                    Source: Annual Report & Accounts                            A review of the location of the 200+
and Associated British Foods, owner                                                                                                                                                            restaurants identifies 20 parks where
of Primark. Throw in seven Council                                                                                                                                                             multiple restaurants from within
for good measure. Even the Queen                                                                                                                                                               the Group will now lie fallow and
via the Crown Estate is lamenting        No doubt these latter additions to                                         with a consistently disappointing                                          potentially long term vacant. The
the decline of the leisure park as we    the estate will form the majority                                          trading performance exposing                                               position is most pronounced at two
know it.                                 of those which will now lie vacant.                                        fundamental issues across our three                                        parks where three restaurants will fall.
                                         Whilst many landlord’s and observers                                       main Leisure brands”.                                                      Jarman Park in Hemel Hempstead is
Only as recently as 2015 did the         will apportion blame for destruction                                                                                                                  one of these two parks.
impressive trading performance of The    of value for all stakeholders firmly                                       Roll forward, it is perhaps hardly
Restaurant Group warrant continued       at the feet of the now replaced                                            surprising that the new Executive                                          The Frankie & Benny’s, Chiquito’s
acquisitions. A cursory glance through   Executive Management Team, a review                                        Management Team have sought to                                             and Coast to Coast are interspersed
the Annual Report for this year          of Annual Report only 12 months                                            not only right the mistakes of previous                                    by Nandos and Bella Italia, leaving a
highlights the opening of 31 new         later illustrates frank awareness of the                                   management but also position the                                           terrace of 5 large restaurant units with
restaurants within the Leisure Park      problems self-inflicted with Chairman,                                     business with the best chances of                                          only two in occupation.
division of the company, amongst them     Debbie Hewitt only 12 months into                                         recovery and without a tail so heavy
14 new Frankie & Benny’s and 9 new       her role, commenting that “2016                                            and long that it brings down an                                            A significant rental void is already
Chiquitos units.                         was a challenging year for the Group                                       otherwise sound business.                                                  accruing for the landlord, Tesco
MARKET INSIGHT LEISURE PARKS - Fleurets
Jarman Park, Hemel Hempstead
Pension Fund. We estimate total
previous rental commitments of
£400,000 per annum (c£30 psf).
Whilst short term liabilities in relation
to service charge will continue to
be met, beyond March 2021 these
liabilities will fall to the landlord. Add
in a combined Rateable Value of
£403,000 for these three units, and
soon the landlord will be swallowing
hard to accommodate a net income
decline of close to £650,000 from
rent, rates and service charge.

The immediate outlook for new
occupation and fresh optimism is
difficult to find. The Restaurant Group
themselves have been seeking over
a number of prior years to dispose
individually of significant number of
their leisure park estate. The scale of
the CVA indicates that they were not
wholly successful in this programme.
The lack of a material number of
purchasers being a key issue.

As supply of opportunities have              maybe only a handful of sites will be      branded restaurant sector. Greggs, Tim   already have a drive thru restaurant
exponentially increased, the pendulum        picked up by these operators.              Hortons and Creams in addition to a      and many may also have restricted
between supply and demand has further                                                   number of coffee operators seeking to    covenants prohibiting the landlord
swung in the direction of would be           Imaginative asset management               tap into the drive thru market, led by   from developing further units for a
potential tenants and the phrase ‘buyers     initiatives will be needed. Perhaps the    Costa, provide comfort that the longer   competing drive thru operator.
market’ has perhaps never been so apt.       easiest to execute would be the sub-       term reoccupation is indeed possible,
                                             division of the units. Most of the units   even though income voids might be        Extending the net wider, the locations
Landlord’s will need to look beyond the      likely to fall back into the landlord’s    lengthy (either from marketing or rent   with readily accessible and plentiful
most obvious relet as a branded casual       hands will be around 4,000 sq. ft.         free) and investment required by the     car parking will appeal to many of the
restaurant. Whilst perhaps Nando’s,          Sub-division into two, or perhaps even     landlord’s to reconfigure the units.     low cost gym operators. However at
TGI Friday’s and Five Guys are the           three units greatly widens the potential                                            rent of probably half of that previously
most likely to acquire out of a rather       occupier pool into a market which is,      Appetite from the wider drive            contracted when occupied as a
shallow pool of potential acquisitive        perhaps not firing on all cylinders, but   thru market will remain constant         restaurant, re-letting to the gym/D2
restaurant operators, the reality is that    infinitely more competitive than the       although many of these sites will        occupier pool will come at a price
Tamden Centre, Colliers Wood
                                                                                             are split to the rear leaving the front         suggest that in a relatively short period
                                                                                             portion of the unit with 100% of the            of time a few Frankie & Benny’s could
                                                                                             retail frontage, whilst the rear portion        well be replaced by Amazon Go.
                                                                                             hides away in the “cheap space”,
                                                                                             providing ideal space and with ready            The approval of the CVA has left many
                                                                                             access to delivery aggregators.                 landlords with much to ponder. Whilst
                                                                                                                                             the last four months have given time
                                                                                             Salvation may also come in the unlikely         to consider a strategy, those landlord’s
                                                                                             guise of Aldi and Lidl. The constant            wishing to take swift and proactive
                                                                                             expansion plans of both supermarket             action are more than likely to reap the
                                                                                             operators have seen acquisitions on             reward in this supply saturated market.
                                                                                             out of town retail parks, taking up             With so many potential units available,
                                                                                             space previously occupied by Toys               inaction may well lead to years, rather
                                                                                             R Us and the likes. Whilst there may            than months, of income void.
                                                                                             be planning hurdles to overcome,
                                                                                             and these operators again provide a
                                                                                             potential lifeline, not least given their
                                                                                             typical size requirements from c15,000
                                                                                             sq. ft. upwards.
                                                                                                                                             For further information
to landlord income. Nonetheless it          We have also witnessed the explosion             Lastly a personal hunch. Much has been          please log onto fleurets.com
represents one of the more realistic        of street food halls in urban locations          written about our shopping habits,              or contact
opportunities with space requirements       in the UK following the success of               many saying they have fundamentally
often in the region of 10,000 sq. ft.,      the original Time Out food market                changed during lockdown with the
there will no doubt be many a landlord      in Lisbon, Portgual and the opening              acceleration towards online retailing.
chasing such covenants.                     of three in London by Market Hall                However, could the world’s largest
                                            including their largest in part of the           online retailer help salvage bricks and
Prior to lockdown, there was significant    former BHS department store on                   mortar retailing in the UK?
growth in the experiential leisure          Oxford Street. The concept could
market, with activities ranging from        easily transfer to a leisure park, and           Amazon Go reportedly acquired their                 Graeme Bunn
golf, to football, to live events and       why not replace a single arguably tired          first high street store in Notting Hill,            Managing Director
virtual reality concepts providing strong   branded restaurant with a host of                London in March this year. Having
                                                                                                                                                 020 7280 4740
demand for large leisure space up to        innovative exciting food offers which            trademarked the slogan “No lines. No
50,000 sq ft, which could provide a         would instantly save all family outings          check out. (No, seriously)”, it is clear that       07776 208085
reconfigured solution to the restaurant     an argument of whether Mum, Dad                  their corporate objectives for the UK               graeme.bunn@fleurets.com
voids left on leisure parks. Many of        or the children pick where to eat – all          extend from way beyond a single store
these concepts combine a customer           could be happy under a single roof!              in Notting Hill. Competing alongside
experience with a food and beverage                                                          Aldi and Lidl for new A1 retail space
offer, which indicates where the future     Dark kitchens may also make an                   and with a significant covenant to
of leisure park demand could lie.           appearance, particular where units               be offered, it would not be absurd to
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