MAPP 2022 Benchmarking Conference - Winning Strategies for Processors To Thrive in the Automotive Sector
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MAPP 2022 Benchmarking Conference Winning Strategies for Processors To Thrive in the Automotive Sector October 2022 Confidential 1
About Plante Moran Comprehensive Services • Strategic Planning, Market/Product Analysis & Planning • Product Costing, Quoting, and Pricing Consulting • Supplier – Customer Relationship Analytics 98 2,500+ • Supply Chain and Operations Consulting Years serving Manufacturing & clients distribution clients • Audit and Accounting Mobility (founded in 1924) • Tax Compliance and Consulting (Credits and Structuring Intelligence • ERP Selection, Implementation, and ‘Rescue’ Center Research on • Business Analytics Critical • Cyber Security Automotive 23 39,000 Technologies to • Due Diligence Services Years on Professionals worldwide Suppliers • Investment Banking (PM Corporate Finance) FORTUNE’s Best 3,500+ • Real Estate – site selection, leases, credits Workplace list In U.S. Deep Plastics Industry Expertise Plastics Benchmarking Studies • Manufacturing professionals averaging 20+ years experience • Plante Moran’s annual benchmarking study - • Thought leaders in the plastics industry since 1995 • Deep industry involvement with plastics processors • Survey collects ~150 data points per • Manufacturers Association for Plastics Processors participant – Financial, Operational, Strategic, • Plastic Industry Association HR, Sales • National Tooling and Machining Association • Participants receive 70+ pg customized report Confidential 2
2022 Automotive Transition to Electric What Are Plastic Processors Asking? 1) Electric Vehicle Growth in North America 3) Developing business with Start-ups • How to select the right targets? • How much will OEMs invest in internal combustion engines (ICE) programs going • Strategies to manage risk? forward? • Where is the true inflection point in EV growth in North America 2) What plastic applications for future vehicles 4) How to improve your quoting process • Which components are staying? • Keys to understanding where you make • Which components are going away? money and where you don’t • Which components will change? • Strategies to assure quotes are developed to win profitable business • What new component applications are created by electric vehicles? • How to streamline the process to ensure responsiveness “without dropping everything” Confidential 3
Mobility Intelligence Center overview Plante Moran and AFS Plante Moran’s Mobility Intelligence Center™ incorporates our proprietary data analytics research, including our supplier research databases, industry benchmarking, and our network of external industry relationships. Visit the Mobility Intelligence Center Confidential 4
Vehicle Projections from 2021-2035 Market Transition from ICE to EV Global EV volumes projected to grow at 22% CAGR through 2035, led by rapid growth of EVs in China and Europe. North America lags China and Europe for EV adoption. North American EV production is projected to be 90% of vehicles in 2050 Global North America 25.0 120.0 100.0 20.0 6.4 8.3 10.8 14.0 18.0 22.6 27.9 1.2 1.5 Millions of Units 3.6 33.7 40.3 46.2 52.6 0.3 0.5 2.0 2.6 3.2 80.0 4.8 2.6 5.0 4.6 5.5 6.6 59.3 66.4 73.7 15.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.8 3.9 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.3 8.3 4.0 5.9 6.6 7.8 8.9 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 9.4 10.5 11.7 7.3 7.8 1.6 1.3 1.6 60.0 8.2 10.1 11.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 Millions of Units 8.6 12.5 12.1 10.0 1.7 2.6 2.5 8.8 1.8 2.4 2.3 40.0 9.1 8.8 11.8 11.3 10.9 13.3 14.5 13.8 12.9 11.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 71.6 74.6 72.5 69.5 65.8 8.5 1.8 1.8 61.5 56.4 8.2 7.8 10.6 5.0 10.9 9.9 8.9 1.9 50.9 45.1 7.5 8.0 7.1 6.5 20.0 38.9 35.5 32.3 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 28.9 25.5 21.8 - - 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 ICE HEV PHEV BEV ICE HEV PHEV BEV Europe China 25.0 40.0 20.0 35.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 1.3 1.6 4.3 5.4 30.0 1.3 1.7 6.7 8.1 1.0 1.2 1.8 9.6 11.3 12.6 14.0 15.3 Millions of Units 15.0 1.3 1.9 16.5 17.6 25.0 2.7 3.5 4.5 5.8 7.5 9.4 11.6 13.9 16.4 18.7 21.1 23.5 26.0 28.5 1.4 2.0 2.2 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.6 1.5 20.0 0.9 1.1 3.0 2.2 1.2 3.3 Millions of Units 1.5 1.4 3.6 10.0 1.6 2.3 1.5 2.4 15.0 3.8 1.7 15.0 15.5 14.6 13.7 1.6 2.2 1.9 4.0 3.7 12.6 11.5 1.6 2.0 1.8 10.0 21.2 21.0 20.6 19.9 18.7 2.1 3.4 3.1 1.4 1.3 1.6 17.3 15.5 2.1 2.0 2.8 5.0 10.2 8.8 1.1 1.4 13.6 11.4 2.0 1.9 2.5 7.4 1.0 0.9 5.0 1.8 5.9 5.3 4.7 9.3 8.2 7.3 6.5 4.2 3.7 3.2 5.8 5.1 - - 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 ICE HEV PHEV BEV ICE HEV PHEV BEV Confidential 5
Vehicle Projections from 2021-2035 North America U.S. adoption of EVs has accelerated substantially in the last 18 to 24 months as GM, Ford and other OEMs have pulled forward production plans to hasten the availability of electrified offerings North America ICE HEV PHEV BEV 25.0 20.0 1.2 1.5 0.3 2.0 2.6 15.0 1.1 0.5 3.2 3.9 0.8 0.8 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.3 0.2 1.3 8.3 9.4 10.5 11.7 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 Millions of Units 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.3 10.0 2.6 1.7 2.5 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 14.5 1.8 2.1 13.3 13.8 1.8 12.9 1.8 11.9 1.8 5.0 10.9 1.9 9.9 8.9 8.0 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 - 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Confidential 6
New Automotive OEMs Stimulating Change 29 OEMs are either operational or planning for production North America by 2029, 13 of the OEMs are New EV Startups 2022% 2029% # OEM 2022 Units 2029 Units % Growth Share Share 1 General Motors 2,623,732 2,999,838 2.3% 18.2% 17.5% 2 Ford Motor 2,260,580 2,415,089 1.1% 15.6% 14.1% • Detroit 3 OEMs (Ford, GM, Stellantis) comprises 3 4 Stellantis Toyota Motor 1,967,809 1,923,412 2,191,782 2,016,927 1.8% 0.8% 13.6% 13.3% 12.8% 11.8% 44.4% of 2029 N.A. production volumes 5 Honda Motor 1,216,958 1,615,701 4.8% 8.4% 9.4% 6 Hyundai Motor 916,851 1,173,824 4.2% 6.3% 6.8% • The Major 3 Japanese OEMs (Toyota, Honda, and 7 Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 1,005,314 1,009,651 0.1% 7.0% 5.9% 8 Tesla 490,769 870,087 10.0% 3.4% 5.1% Nissan) account to 27.1% of 2029 N.A. volumes 9 Volkswagen 593,500 787,395 4.8% 4.1% 4.6% 10 BMW 499,557 547,419 1.5% 3.5% 3.2% • German OEMs (BMW, Daimler, and VW) account 11 Mercedes-Benz Group 398,270 332,052 -3.0% 2.8% 1.9% 12 Subaru 276,004 314,423 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% for 9.7% of 2028 N.A. volumes 13 Rivian Automotive 21,073 243,092 50.3% 0.1% 1.4% 14 15 Mazda Motor Geely Group 200,523 30,496 225,472 121,981 2.0% 26.0% 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% • Other Asian based OEMs (Hyundai, Subaru, Mazda, 16 Fisker 0 62,615 N/A 0.0% 0.4% Geely, Jianghuai,) will account for 12.2% of 2029 17 18 Lucid Motors VinFast 4,591 0 47,817 44,708 47.8% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% N.A. production volumes 19 Canoo 88 28,778 162.5% 0.0% 0.2% 20 Via Motors 0 24,527 N/A 0.0% 0.1% • Tesla accounts for 5.1% of 2029 2029 N.A. volumes 21 Lordstown 499 15,743 77.8% 0.0% 0.1% 22 Oshkosh 0 13,842 N/A 0.0% 0.1% 23 Arrival 797 12,454 58.1% 0.0% 0.1% • New EV Start Ups will account for 1.6% 24 Faraday Future 1,327 11,451 43.2% 0.0% 0.1% • (Rivian, Bollinger, Lucid, Lordstown, Canoo, 25 Bollinger 0 9,140 N/A 0.0% 0.1% 26 Jianghuai 8,516 8,185 -0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Fisker, Oshkosh, Faraday Future, Arrival, 27 Jianghuai-VW 2,984 3,447 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% Amazon/Zoox, Karma, Vinfast, Via,) 28 Amazon 310 1,503 30.1% 0.0% 0.0% 29 Karma Automotive 1,040 1,057 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Total N.A. Production 14,445,000 17,150,000 2.5% 100.0% 100.0% EV Startups Updated: August 2022 Confidential 7
2022-2029 Vehicle Program Launches by Powertrain Variants Total of 280 upcoming program launches with an increasing focus on BEV dedicated platforms and HEV Variants. From 2022-2029, 207 programs launched will offer an electrified variant (74% of all launches) Powertrain Variants of Vehicle Programs 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2022-2029 BEV 0 0 2 11 13 16 19 22 18 11 10 11 120 HEV 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 5 3 4 17 ICE 20 24 20 11 6 11 12 11 15 9 5 4 73 Electric Variant 10 7 5 7 9 7 11 7 13 11 8 4 70 Total Program Launches 31 31 29 30 29 35 44 40 47 36 26 23 280 Battery Electric Vehicle Launches Hybrid Electric Vehicle Launches ICE Vehicle Launches • A total of 132 Programs Launched in the ‘22 • A total of 83 Programs Launched in the ‘22 • A total of 138 programs launched in the ‘22 to ’29 timeframe will have a BEV variant to ’29 timeframe will have HEV variant (30% to ’29 timeframe will an have ICE variant (47% of all launches) of all launches) (49% of all launches) • 120 of those programs will be on BEV only • 66 HEV programs will be on shared • 65 of ICE programs will be on shared dedicated platforms (91% of all BEV platforms with ICE or BEV variants (80% of platforms with HEV or BEV variants (47% of launches) all HEV launches) all ICE launches) Updated: August 2022 Confidential 8
EV Launches Thru 2029 Planned in North America 147+ and growing Car 22 GM: Celestiq (2023) Tesla: Roadster (2023) Stellantis: Charger (2024) Tesla: Model 3 (2024) Honda: Acura TLX (2026) Volvo: S60 (2027) # of Launches 2022-2029 CUV 74 Rivian Automotive: R1S (2022) GM: Lyriq (2022) Volkswagen: ID.4 (2022) Geely/Volvo: XC90 (2023) Lucid : Gravity (2024) Ford: Explorer (2024) SUV 10 GM: Hummer SUV (2023) GM: Escalade IQ (2024) GM: Tahoe EV (2026) Ford: Expedition (2026) Ford: Navigator (2026) Stellantis: Wrangler (2027) PUP 20 Lordstown: Endurance (2022) Ford: F-150 Lightning (2022) Ram: 1500 (2023) Honda: Ridgeline (2028) Tesla: Cybertruck (2023) GM: Silverado EV (2023) Van Cum. 21 147 GM: EV600 (2022) Arrival: EV Van (2022) Oshkosh: NGDV (2023) Ford Motor: Transit (2026) Honda: Odyssey (2026) Amazon/Zoox: Autonomous Van (2027) Updated: Aug 2022 Confidential 9
Case Study - OEM Electrification General Motors and the Ultium Platform GM’s Ultium platform is a large-scale skateboard architecture used for GM’s electric vehicles. All OEMs are developing vehicle architectures to utilize the same battery and drivetrain components over multiple vehicle “top hats”. Standardization is critical to reduce complexity and drive down costs • Battery manufacturers and OEMs to utilize common components for different battery packs • Higher volumes to drive down costs – minimize unique components Equinox EV • Simplify components, supply chain, and assembly GM BEV3 • GM is targeting 19 different battery and drive ~2/3 of EV Volume configurations, compared with current 550 ICE ~500k in 2028 drivetrain configurations Cadillac Lyriq • Commonization of cells has the most significant impact on pack costs Ultium Cells • GM and LG Energy targeting cost below $100/kWh with Ultium battery pack • Flexibility in design is required to meet demands for Silverado EV different vehicle types (sedan, trucks, SUVs, etc.) • Differences in pack sizes ranging from 50 to GM BET 200kWh ~1/3 of EV Volume ~260k in 2028 Hummer EV Confidential 10
Working with EV Startups EV OEMs can provide significant growth opportunity to suppliers, but assessment of the risks in start-up OEM will be critical Key Areas Critical Areas for Suppliers to Explore • What is the customer’s target segment of the market ( Luxury EV, EV truck, Fleet vehicle, public transit ) Strategy and • Estimated value and share of the market ( total market volume, production volumes, estimated market share) Market • Product position vs competitive offerings (Price, technical specification, timing to market/SOP) Positioning • Long term strategy for additional products/model launches • Value proposition: design and engineering elements that create a unique customer value proposition (battery technology, motor technology, exterior design, interior design, Autonomous and connected technology) Product • Product and technology feasibility ( is the technology developed enough to support long term commercial growth) Development & • Vehicle development timeline (Sled builds, alpha builds, beta builds, testing, preproduction vehicles, start of production, start of sales) Engineering • Engineering freeze timing or engineering change process (often late) • Long leadtime items (passenger safety ) that may delay SOP or sales milestones • Make vs buy strategy for major components systems Purchasing • Reputable suppliers and engineering firms that are engaged with the start up • Ability to mitigate financial risk (advance payments for tooling and engineering) • Production strategy and location (greenfield, brownfield, contract manufacturer) Manufacturing • Production readiness timelines, volume forecast, production ramp up • Level of investment/capital expenditures needed to start production by area (body shop, assembly line, paint shop, battery, etc) • Financial transparency provided to suppliers (Private vs publicly traded, historical or projected financials) • Previous and future funding efforts/rounds (milestone contingencies related to funding) and overview of capital structure (Equity vs debt, key shareholders) Financial • Understanding of liquidity and current levels of cash on hand • Current and forecasted cash burn rate, how long will the current funding last? Confidential 11
Interior and Under-hood Plastics Comprise Majority of Automotive Plastics Opportunity Weight of Plastics in Avg. Vehicle (lbs.) ~331 Total Pounds of Plastic in the The majority of the opportunities in automotive plastics are Average Vehicle within the Interiors and Under-hood sub segments: 17 14 21 • Interiors comprise 150 lbs. of plastics, 50% of the total plastics Interiors used in the vehicle Under-hood 34 Bumpers • Under-hood makes up 79 lbs. of plastics, 24% of the total plastics 165 used in the vehicle Exterior Trim Lighting Body 79 Panels Additionally, plastic usage in vehicles is projected to grow from approximately 9% of total vehicle weight currently to 11.5% of Source: Institute of Production Technologies, vehicle weight in 2030 Plastic Applications in a Vehicle Plastics as a % of Vehicle Weight 15.0% 11.5%+ 10.0% 9.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2018 2030 Source: McKinsey/Plante Moran research Confidential 12
Impact of EV Transition on Under-hood Plastics Components Part Type Definition Example products Due to plastics anti-corrosive nature is Fluid and fuel often the material of choice in fluid Growth Systems systems such as coolant expansion opportunity reservoirs, washer reservoirs, brake fluid reservoirs, fuel tanks AC Coolant Washer Fluids Fuel Tanks Brake Fluid Tanks expansion reservoirs Will become Due to high heat and abilities to obsolete (ICE only) manufacture complex shape assemblies plastic injection molding is often select Neutral – used HVAC Systems from HVAC applications such as: shroud by both ICE/EV and fan assemblies, coolant pump casings, HVAC ducting, Radiator support Radiator Support Assemblies Shroud and Fan HVAC Ducting assemblies Plastic is the material of choice in under hood applications due it’s high-heat resistant properties applications include Powertrain end Frames, Rocker Covers, Engine Underhood Covers, Intake manifolds, Turbocharger Applications duct, Timing belt pulleys, Battery Boxes , Oil Pans Engine Covers Air Filters Intake manifold Turbocharger Duct throttle bodies, Oil pans, SCR Tank Systems Battery pack structures, holders, frames, Electric Vehicle manifolds, bass bars, Chargers, Components Connectors, Traction motor plastics Battery Pack Chargers Connectors Frunk Confidential 13
Impacts of EV growth on Under-hood Plastics Electrification Impact 2018- 2025- System Product Line 2025 2030 2030+ Rationale Electric vehicle demand more complex coolant systems as maintaining proper battery temperature is Fluid and fuel Systems Coolant reserves → ↗ ↗ key to the longevity of the vehicle Brake Fluid Electric powertrains will increase uptake of full electromechanical braking and reduce the need for Reserves → ↘ ↘ hydraulic braking Electric powertrains will eliminate the need for fuel systems as they are replaced by battery systems Fuel Tank → ↘ ↘ and HEV and PHEV variants will utilize smaller gas tanks ICE Components → ↘ ↘ Under-hood Applications Powertrain Electric vehicle components will replace ICE focused components BEV Components → ↗ ↗ Transmission Electric vehicle transmission are much less complex than ICE based vehicles, will reduced the need Components → ↘ ↘ for precision value add plastic components Increase in shared vehicles will increase demand for more complex multi-zone HVAC Systems to HVAC Systems → → → allow Customers to set climate to their preferred settings Confidential 14
Strategic Directions Impacting both OEMs and Suppliers Business Models in transition Suppliers will have critical strategic investment decisions to make over the next 2-3 years. The next decade will bring dramatic product shifts toward Electric Vehicles, while ICE products will begin to decline dramatically Today North America Vehicle Production Strategic Considerations Maturity • Product strategy & roadmap EV Growth • Organic and M&A growth strategies EV • Capability gaps Introduction • Viability of EV startups and partners • Capex decisions 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 North America Vehicle Production • Product divestitures and operations restructuring Maturity ICE Decline • Consolidation and roll-up ICE • Operating profit reinvestment strategies • Pricing strategies Peak ICE in 2022 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Confidential 15
NAPIS Trends Automotive Processors vs. Industry Confidential 16
Labor Productivity & Employee Turnover NAPIS Results Since 2019, Automotive processor turnover has increased at rate of more than 2x the industry rate. Addressing declining labor productivity presents processors with their best opportunity to grow profit margins Employee Turnover 5 ppts 40% 12ppts • Increased competition for labor from non-manufacturing 30% companies and high job quit rates drive increasing employee turnover 20% 10% • Value added per Labor Dollar is declining– processors must 0% increase labor productivity to maintain and grow profitability 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Full Survey Transportation • Investment in automation and Industry 4.0 technology will Value Added Per Labor Dollar be critical to insulate automotive processors from employee $2.50 turnover and increase labor productivity $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Full Survey Transportation Confidential 17
Profitability & Growth NAPIS Results Two Year Sales Growth 7% Full Survey Transportation 6% 5% Processors serving the automotive 4% industry have seen sales growth 3% underperform the rest of the industry 2% 1% from 2019-2021 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Two Year EBIT Growth Full Survey Transportation Processors serving the automotive 20% industry are earning lower profits than 15% 10% the industry from 2019-2021 after 5% outperforming the industry in the prior 0% -5% three years -10% -15% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Confidential 18
Quoting Process Improvements Quote to Win Confidential 19
Perhaps you’ve heard this before?? How do we know what we How many jobs am I winning? How are decreases in job size and think is happening, is really happening? How trustworthy Have I passed on increases in competition impacting our business model? is past experience? all my inflationary cost Where in the plant to my should we focus efforts customers? to reduce cost? Which parts and/or customers are driving down our profit? Our customer keeps saying our rates are too high, yet they are sub- optimizing the rates!!! Confidential 20
Inflation and inaccurate overhead cost implications Inflation and inaccurate overhead cost assignments are causing plastics processors to under- or over- price business Production overhead and SG&A are often a • PPV significant part of Accuracy Material • Yield • Process Scrap product cost, yet Direct • OEE Cost Labor • Rate inflation inaccurate and simple allocations Margin are used to apply Production • Mold support Overhead to product cost. • Maintenance SG&A • Program Complexity • QA/Engineering • Cost to Serve • Material Support • Utilization / OEE • Change-over / lot size Impact 21 Confidential 21
Criticality of accurate data Accurate cost and margin data is critical to management decision making Common Errors Recommendations BOM Accuracy Track net material issued vs BOM requirements Routers with incorrect cycle Realistic standards with time, crewing or pcs/cycle weekly reviews of variance to standards Use of incorrect cost drivers Costs should be applied based (i.e. cost per unit, % of labor) on its true cost driver (i.e. material support based on material cost, machine burden based on machine hours) High volume parts subsidize Capture change-over time low volume parts and lot size Excess capacity cost included Exclude excess capacity from in overhead rates quoting rates (winning more business will absorb excess capacity Fixed costs and SG&A applied Apply in machine burden or as as a % of price (price tax) % of conversion cost or other more appropriate driver Confidential 22 22
Quote to win – 4 key factors In most cases, your quoting approach quickly can be transformed to provide far greater accuracy with relatively little effort Select the right costing and estimating techniques for your company • Build accountability Ensure data inputs are accurate • Create a quick quote vs detailed quote process • Build the right culture for pricing, state Involve the right people in the process risks with the inputs but don’t add provision, let management add provision in the final price Select the right quoting technology • Leverage excel, ERP or other estimating software consistent quoting/costing complexity Confidential 23 23
Contact Information • Ted Morgan, Partner Ted.Morgan@plantemoran.com 248.223.3575 • Mark Barrott, Principal Mark.Barrott@plantemoran.com 248.223.3272 To participate in NAPIS: • Greg Alonso, Principal Greg.Alonso@plantemoran.com 248.223-3254 www.plastics.plantemoran.com Confidential 24
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