Macro Overview - TBC Capital
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Macro Overview
10.8% restart of the economy is diversified
• Contribution of money transfers, tourism inflows
and exports in GDP growth was noticeable
• The impact of the FDI was slightly positive, though
only on the back of reinvestments, as foreign
investments in equity declined
%
• At the same time, credit growth has intensified the
restart of the economy
• Among other factors, the effects of lockdowns and
dissavings in 2021 by the high-income segment are
noteworthy
• Given the high inflation, the nominal growth is
projected at 22.8%
1. • Real GDP growth will also be positive compared to
4 2019 and will be around 3.3%
*In Q4 2020, the main reason for the decline of FDI was transferring of ownership from non-resident to the resident companies, without cash outflow, but still reducing FDI by around 295 m USD. The figure is adjusted
for this one-time transaction.
Source: Geostat, NBG, MoF, TBC Capital 4
Among other factors, the effect of increased spending by the high-income segment
in 2021 that was accumulated in 2020 is also noteworthy
Household saving deposits to quarterly GDP
and QoQ GDP growth
140 20
• During the pandemic, the savings of high-income
households increased
120 15
• In the second quarter of 2021, with the opening of
the economy and borders, savings were spent,
100 10 which gave additional impetus to the economic
growth
80 5
• Although the ratio of household deposits to GDP
% % increased in the third quarter, this figure is still
60 0 significantly lower than the pandemic level
• The reduction in savings was also facilitated by
40 -5 lower interest rates on foreign currency deposits
• Given the high dollarization, the dollar deposit rate
20 -10
on savings is more effective than the lari.
Consequently, although the GEL rate is high, it is the
0 -15 low rate of the dollar that has helped reduce savings
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 • It should also be noted that, as it is mainly the
foreign currency deposits that are spent, the impact
Real GDP QoQ SA growth (RHS) Household demand & term deposits on the GEL exchange rate is positive
FC deposits (FX-adjusted) NC deposits
Source: Geostat, NBG, TBC Capital 5
After the 2021 double-digit recovery, growth will return to normal in 2022
MAJOR MACRO VARIABLE PROJECTIONS FOR 2021 – 2022 2021 2022
ACCORDING TO TBC CAPITAL, YoY, %
23 September 23 September
2020 Updated Projection Updated Projection
Projection Projection
EXPORTS* -12.0 +23.5 +26.5 +12.0 +12.0
+126.3% vs 2020/ +129.2% vs 2020/ +113.3% vs 2020/ +97.5% vs 2020 /
TOURISM* -83.4 -62.0% vs 2019 -25% vs 2019
-62.5% vs 2019 -20% vs 2019
REMITTANCES* +5.51 +24.5 +25.5 +11.0 +11.0
FDI*2 -30.5 +10.0 +21.0 +30.0 +30.0
IMPORT OF GOODS AND SERVICES* -19.3 +21.0 +21.5 +18.0 +18.0
FISCAL DEFICIT** 9.3 6.9 6.7 4.4 4.4
BANK CREDIT*** +9.1 +18.0 +18.5 +13.6 +14.0
GDP GROWTH -6.8% +10.5% +10.8% +6.0% +5.5%
*Growth in USD ** Ratio to GDP, as planned by the MoF, IMF methodology ***End of period, constant exchange rate
For GDP estimation inflation adjusted period credit growth is used. Also, the calculation is based on the estimation of inflows in real terms in GEL, not in USD. Moreover, various other assumptions are used in terms of the
impact of key macroeconomic variables on economic growth
1. Adjusted taking into account reduced cash inflows due to closed borders
2. In Q4 2020, the main reason for the decline of FDI was transferring of ownership from non-resident to the resident companies, without cash outflow, but still reducing FDI by around 295 m USD. Adjusting for this
component, FDI fell by 30.5% YoY, while without adjustment they fell by 52.9% YoY
Source: Geostat, NBG, MoF, TBC Capital 6Georgia's tourism structure should be a prerequisite for about 75% recovery in 2022
compared to 2019
Global travel spend by segment
(difference from 2019 levels)
40
• Internationally, restoring a business trips will take
20 the longest
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 • It should be noted that the share of this type of
inflows in total tourist inflows of Georgia is very low.
% 0
Just as low is the relatively long distance visits and
on the other hand, in the country there is an
abundance of open-air tourism destinations
-20
• Although the rate of vaccination in Georgia is still
problematic, recovery of 55.0% of the 2019 inflows
in November 2021 in USD terms is promising
-40
• See TBC Capital Tourism Overview for more details
-60
-80
International Business International Leisure Domestic Business Domestic Leisure
Source: Oxford Economics 7The expectation of economic growth in 2022 largely depends on the recovery of
tourism
• After the 2021 recovery, exports and remittances will
be relatively normalized
• The FDI growth rate will increase, this time on the
back of equity
% • The main driver of growth is the tourism sector
• Normalization of bank lending is expected in 2023,
although in 2022, with slower than projected
recovery in tourism, lending will be more moderate
• The impact of fiscal stimulus on growth is still
negative
• The effect of the dissaving in 2022 compared to last
year is already low
Source: Geostat, NBG, MoF, TBC Capital 8Currency inflows are diversified, although Georgia is still vulnerable to regional
geopolitical and economic risks
Structure of external inflows by countries
73.2 53.7 61.9 Total, in % of GDP
100 2.8 Other Countries
7.3 5.3
4.2
3.8 Armenia
90 7.4 5.5
4.9 • Inflows to GDP ratio in 2021 is still lower than 2019
4.9 USA due to still recovering tourism and FDI inflows
4.4 5.9
80 5.8
6.5 6.8 Middle East & Israel • The inflows are quite diversified, including the
5.4
70 5.3
6.8 Ukraine largest share of the EU
7.1
6.7 • At the same time, Georgia remains vulnerable to
7.4 Other CIS
60 8.2 9.5 possible economic crises in the region
Turkey
8.8
% 50 8.9 8.7 Azerbaijan
• It should be noted that compared to 2019, the share
9.1 of China has increased significantly, as well as, the
3.4 China
40 14.5
share of the European Union especially in the crisis
14.1 Russia of 2020
16.6
30
EU • Russia's share in foreign inflows has declined
20
31.7
25.4 27.1
10
0
2019 2020 2021
Source: Geostat, NBG, TBC Capital 9The risk of a stronger US dollar is also noteworthy
US interest rates and USD index
6 130
5 120
4 110
3 100
• Historically, the expectation of a Federal Reserve
% 2 90 % rate hike does not necessarily mean that the dollar
will strengthen
1 80 • Also, with the rest of the world recovering, the dollar
is weakening
0 70
• See more in December 21 TBC Capital macro
insights
-1 60
-2 50
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2012
2018
2020
2023
2022
2021
Fed funds rate (Projection according to December FOMC median)
US 10Y treasury nominal yield
US 10Y treasury real yield
USD index (RHS)
Source: FRED 10The euro probably to stay weak against the dollar in the short term, but is likely to
strengthen in the medium term
EUR/USD spot rate, PPP estimate and net speculative positions
60 1.7
1.6
40
1.5
stronger EUR
• Net speculative positions in the short run, albeit
1.4 slightly, point to further weakening of the euro
20
1.3 • However, in the medium term, according to the
PPP estimate the euro is expected to strengthen
0 1.2 • Alongside the PPP estimate, it should be noted
that the lari is more stable against the euro than
1.1 against the dollar
-20
1 • Diversification is still optimal when taking FX risk
• Also, adding lira and ruble to the basket once
0.9
-40 again looks optimal
weaker EUR
0.8
-60 0.7
2000
2001
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2008
2009
2010
2018
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
Net Speculative Position EUR/USD spot rate (RHS) PPP estimate (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, OECD, CFTC, TBC Capital 11The lira has depreciated significantly against the dollar, although the currencies of
other trading partners are more or less stable
Georgia's major trading partners' currencies to USD
(1-Sep-2021 = 100)
235 Should the GEL follow to lira?
215 USD/TRY 1. GEL average exchange rate against other currencies
USD/EUR
2. High inflation in Turkey
195
3. The long-term strengthening trend of the lari against
USD/GEL the lira
175
4. Impact of the GEL/TRY with Turkey and total trade
USD/AZN balance
155 USD/TRY: 14.07
USD/CNY 5. The impact of economic growth on the trade
balance
135 USD/RUB 6. The dominant currency paradigm
7. Changes in post-election depreciation expectations
115 USD/UAH
8. 2022 Inflow-outflow balance
USD/AMD 9. Impact of GEL depreciation on inflation
95
22-Sep-21
01-Dec-21
08-Dec-21
29-Sep-21
24-Nov-21
22-Dec-21
15-Sep-21
13-Oct-21
03-Nov-21
06-Oct-21
20-Oct-21
27-Oct-21
10-Nov-21
17-Nov-21
15-Dec-21
01-Sep-21
08-Sep-21
See more in December 21 TBC Capital Macro Insights
Note: As of 21-Dec
Source: NBG 12However, the average exchange rate of the lari has strengthened
significantly, but this time mainly on the back of the lira
The GEL REER, daily estimates
20 (% deviation from period average)
1.77; 2.22 3.09; 3.48
2.13; 2.41
15
2.57; 2.92
2.40; 2.57 USD/TRY: 14.07
10
• Due to the weakening of the lira and partially euro
against the dollar, the weighted exchange rate of
5 the lari is 11% higher than the average of its
2.80; 3.19
previous years
0 • Given the historical dynamics, the probability of
the lari average exchange rate correction is high.
-5 However, It should be noted that the depreciation
2.77; 3.18 of the lira in previous periods largely coincided
2.72; 3.24 with the depreciation of other currencies, in
-10 2.36; 2.68 2.78; 2.89
contrast to the current idiocyncratic shock in
USD/GEL; EUR/GEL
2.95; 3.29 Turkey
-15
GEL REER GEL REER without Turkish lira
3.33; 4.07
-20
Dec-15
Jul-21
Jul-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-19
Nov-21
Apr-14
Apr-17
Jul-16
Jul-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Aug-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Nov-17
Nov-14
Aug-16
Nov-18
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Oct-20
May-21
Sep-21
Feb-17
Jan-14
Feb-14
Aug-15
Feb-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Jun-19
Aug-19
Jun-14
Aug-14
Dec-20
Sep-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Jun-15
May-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Oct-16
May-17
Jan-19
Mar-19
Oct-19
Sep-17
Sep-18
Note: As of December 21, an increase means the lari will strengthen; USD/TRY at 14.07
Source: NBG, TBC Capital 13Similar to the GEL REER, the baseline scenario implies that the GEL will weaken
against the euro and the dollar in 2022
Factors pushing GEL towards depreciation:
EUR/GEL USD/GEL EUR/USD
• Prolonged pandemic
4.5
• Geopolitical instability in the region
4.0 • Weak Euro and Turkish Lira
3.68 • Possible deflation in Georgia in 2022
3.5
3.25 • Fed’s early rate hike and stronger US dollar
3.0
2.5 Factors pushing GEL towards appreciation
• Tourism recovery
2.0
• Strong net inflows
1.5 • Still high government external borrowings
• Increased conversions from currency to GEL
1.0
1.13
• Historically high GEL/USD differential
0.5 • Increased FX credit
• Excess liquidity in the currency of the banking sector
0.0
• Weakening of US dollar
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jul-20
Jul-21
Dec-22
Mar-20
Mar-21
Feb-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Aug-20
Nov-21
Jan-20
Oct-20
Apr-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
• GEL REER long-term appreciation trend
Source: NBG, TBC Capital 14Annual inflation is still high, although monthly inflation has already declined
Annual and seasonally adjusdted monthly annualized inflation
(%); GEL REER (Jan-19=100)
• In December 2021, annual inflation growth is
30 130 expected, but only on the back of high base
effect
20 120
14.1
12.8
12.5 • By 2022, with the assumption that:
10 110 • The average GEL exchange rate will
3.3 depreciate by about 5%
0 100 • The price of Brent oil will recover from the
existing $ 72 to $ 85
• Other commodity prices will remain at
-10 90
broadly current levels
• The disruption of global supply chains will
-20 80 be alleviated to some extent
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jun-19
May-21
Jul-21
May-20
Jul-20
Feb-21
Aug-19
Feb-20
Sep-19
Oct-19
Jun-21
Nov-21
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jun-20
Nov-20
Mar-19
Dec-19
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Aug-21
Apr-20
Oct-21
Feb-19
May-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Sep-21
Nov-19
• Next year's growth, as we forecast, will be
5.5%
• By the end of 2022, inflation will be close to the
target
MoM SA annualized CPI Inflation target Annual CPI REER w/o domestic inflation (RHS)
Note: REER increase means depreciation
Source: Geostat, NBG, TBC Capital 15In the wake of declining inflation, GEL interest rates are expected to decline in the
second quarter of 2022
Interest rates on domestic and foreign currency denominated
deposits, monetary policy rate, Libor, and Euribor
12
10.50 Arguments for reducing the refinancing rate:
10
8.50 • Decrease in inflation
8 • Recovery of tourism revenues
• More or less stability of the GEL exchange rate
6 All time high At the same time, an increase in foreign currency
% differential rates is not expected in Georgia. The reasons for
4 this are:
2 • Foreign currency still has excess liquidity in the
0.55 banking sector
0.17 • Structural decline in foreign currency rates in the long
0
run, which had a very weak correlation with the
-0.53 -0.47 dynamics of international markets
-2 • Also, the expected increase in larization and demand
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jul-18
Jul-17
Jul-19
Jan-21
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Dec-22
Nov-19
May-20
Jan-17
Mar-18
Jan-19
Jul-20
May-21
Mar-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Nov-17
Sep-18
Mar-19
Nov-18
Sep-19
Jul-21
May-18
May-17
May-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
for the GEL
MPR GEL deposits FX deposits 3-Month Libor 3-Month Euribor
Source: NBG, Bloomberg, TBC Capital 16Summary and risks
Baseline scenario 2022:
• Economic growth - 5.5%
• Tourism recovery - 75% compared to 2019
• Inflation – close to the 3% target inflation
• Depreciation of the GEL by about 5%
• Refinancing rate - 8.5%
Key Challenges:
• Uncertainty related to the epidemiological situation
• Possible strengthening of the US dollar
• Aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the region
• Impact of the record-high depreciation of the lira
17Sectoral Overview
According to our renewed expectations, only the sectors tightly connected to tourism will remain
below corresponding 2019 levels
160
2021 2022 2023 2019 level
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Wine
FMCG
Oil Importers and
Health Care
Pharmacy
Development
Toruism Inflow
Infrastructure
Telecommunication
Restaurants
Construction
Clothes, Shoes and
RevPAR USD
Transportation
Auto Dealers
Energy
(transactions)
Materials
Retailers
(USD)
Textiles
Compared to our September outlook, the noticeable change in the infrastructure sector is driven by the capital expenditures of the 2022 state budget
The global expectations regarding oil prices has correspondingly adjusted our forecast for oil importers’ turnover
Expectation for the turnover of the transportation sector has been improved based on the better than expected performance of the sector
The historically high amount of exports from the wine and alcoholic beverages sector has positively affected our outlook for the sector
19
Source: TBC CapitalSlow recovery to 2019 Level
Recovery, 2021 11M Projections
0% 140% Recovery will depend on:
Rate of vaccination
-10% Spread of new strains
120% 115% Unimpeded mobility of tourists
-20% 105% Coordination among countries
100% Creation of Covid-safe environment in
100% 95%
90%
Georgia on a state and destination
-30%
-30% -29% 85% level
78%
-40% 80% 75%
In 2020:
International visits from Russia and
-50%
60% Armenia will continue slow recovery
Economic development in Turkey may
-60% negatively affect visits and inflows from
-63% 40% Turkey
-70% Visits from Azerbaijan are expected to
start recovery in the second part of 2022.
-80% -78%
20%
Ukraine, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will
continue strong growth.
-90%
0%
Domestic tourism will play significant
Visits Inflow Occupancy ADR
Toruism Inflow forecast RevPAR USD - Total Occupancy (%) - Total ADR - Total role in 2022 as well.
(USD)
2021 2022 2023 2019
20Residential Real Estate on a stable track
TBILISI RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE PRICE* - USD
(Change YoY, %)
4000
20%
3500 +4.9%
3000 10% YoY in October 2021
2500 0%
-0.2%
MoM in October
2000 2021
-10%
1500 +3.9%
-20%
1000 Relative to 2019
500 -30%
0 -40%
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jan-19
Oct-19
Apr-19
Oct-20
Jul-19
Apr-20
Jan-20
Jan-21
Oct-21
Apr-21
Oct-2017
Oct-2018
Oct-2019
Oct-2020
Oct-2021
In January-October 2021, the number of transactions exceeds its 2019 level by 1%.
Residential real estate prices in Tbilisi show positive dynamics.
The increasing property prices could be attributed not only to the relatively recuperated demand on the market, but also to the
increasing prices for material inputs in construction.
21The rent in RRE still below its prepandemic level
TBILISI RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RENT - USD RENT-TO-PRICE RATIO AND ITS LONG-TERM AVERAGE
(Change YoY, %) (%)
30% 11%
0.0% 10%
7.0%
10% YoY in October 2021 9% in October 2021
-3.0% 8% -0.3 PP
-10% MoM in October 2021
YoY in October2021
-17.5% 7%
-1.8 PP
-30% Relative to 2019 6%
Relative to 2019
5%
-50% 4%
3%
-70%
Oct-2020
Oct-2021
Oct-2018
Oct-2017
Oct-2019
Oct-2020
Oct-2021
Oct-2017
Oct-2018
Oct-2019
The rent was hit by Covid much more and even though there was an improvement in YoY terms, it still remains below its
pre-pandemic level by 17.5%.
The rental yield started declining since March 2020, but recently it has mostly been stable, standing at 7.0% in October
2021. This figure is 1.3% lower than the long-term average.
22RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RESILIENT TO CRISIS
Number of sold apartments Price USD
160 110 Georgia Batumi Tbilisi 2019 level
Georgia Batumi Tbilisi 2019 level
108
140
106
104
120
102
100 100
98
80
96
94
60
92
40 90
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
In 2021, the number of transactions will exceed its 2019 level by about 3.8%.
In 2021, the price of residential real estate will slightly exceed its 2019 level.
Batumi RE was hit harder by the pandemic, however, starting from 2022, the recovery of transactions and prices will be faster in
Batumi than in Tbilisi.
23Occupancy more resilient to crisis than rents
Weighted average rents (index), Shopping Malls in Tbilisi
Weighted average rent (index), Street Retail in Tbilisi
160 160
USD/GEL Rent in USD Rent in GEL USD/GEL Rent in USD Rent in GEL
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40
40
2020 Q2
2020 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q3
2021 Q2
2021 Q1
2021 Q3
2023F
2022F
2019 Q2
2019 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q3
2020 Q1
2021 Q2
2021 Q3
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2022E
2023E
2019 Q1
2019 Q3
2019 Q2
2019 Q4
In the Q3 2021 average weighted rent in street retail was down by 13% compared to Q3 2019. The rent in shopping malls in Q3 2021 was 19% behind its 2019 level.
We expect the rent in USD in street retail to fully recover to 2019 average rent in 2022 and 2023.
In shopping malls the rent will fully recover to its 2019 level in 2022.. The recovery will be driven by growth of tenants’ revenues.
24Occupancy more resilient to crisis than rents
Vacancy rate, Street Retail in Tbilisi Vacancy rate, Shopping malls in Tbilisi
16% 16%
14% 14% 15.0%
12% 12.8% 12%
12.4%
10% 11.0% 10% 11.1%
10.0% 10.1%
9.3% 9.6%
8% 8% 9.0%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
2021 E
2022 E
2019
2020
2023 E
2021 E
2022 E
2019
2020
2023 E
Occupancy rates were more resilient than rents during COVID-19, especially in malls, due to rental holidays and long-term lease agreements with high exit penalties.
Considering the pace of economic recovery, we project a gradual decline in street retail vacancy rates.
Vacancies in shopping malls are expected to increase, as a result of opening of new malls.
The pandemic had a negative impact on rental yields in street retail, as correction in rents was greater than in sale prices. In Q3 2021, yields stood at 8.9%, which was 2.3
pp lower than in the same period of 2019.
25Legal Notice
This publication (the “Publication”) has been prepared and distributed by TBC Capital LLC (“TBC Capital”) member of TBC Bank Group PLC (“Group”) for informational purposes only and
independently of the respective companies mentioned herein. TBC Capital is operating and performing its professional services on the territory of Georgia and is duly authorized to
prepare and distribute this Publication on the territory of Georgia. Nothing in this Publication constitutes or forms part of an offer or solicitation or invitation to an offer to buy, sell or
subscribe for any assets or securities and nothing herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever or shall be considered as a recommendation to take any such
actions. Since distribution of this Publication may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions, persons into whose possession this Publication comes are required by TBC Capital to
inform themselves about and to observe any and all restrictions applicable to them. As this Publication is not directed to or intended for distribution, directly or indirectly, to or use by
any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or which would require any registration or
licensing within such jurisdiction, neither TBC Capital nor any member of the Group nor any of their respective director(s), partner(s), employee(s), affiliates, adviser(s) or agent(s)
(“Representatives”) accept any direct or indirect liability to any person in relation to the publication, distribution or possession of this Publication in or from any jurisdiction. This
Publication is not intended to provide any investment, business, tax and/or legal advice, and credit or any other evaluation. Recipients of this Publication are strongly required to make
their own independent investigation and appraisal of the matters discussed herein. Any investment decision should be made at the investor's sole discretion. Any and all information
contained in this Publication is subject to change without notice, and neither TBC Capital nor any member of the Group nor any of their Representatives are under any obligation to
update or keep information contained in this Publication. Distribution of this Publication, at any time, does not imply that information herein is correct, accurate and/or complete as of
any time after its preparation date or that there has been no change in business, financial condition, prospects, credit worthiness, status or affairs of the respective companies or
anyone else since that date. Accordingly, this Publication should not be considered as a complete description of the markets, industries and/or companies referred to herein and no
reliance should be placed on it. TBC Capital does not undertake to update this Publication or to correct any inaccuracies therein which may become apparent. The Publication may
include forward-looking statements, but not limited to, statements as to future operating results. Any “forward-looking statements”, which include all statements other than statements
of historical facts, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond TBC Capital’s control that could cause the actual results, performance or
achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements
are based on numerous assumptions regarding present and future business strategies and the environment operating in the future. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve
risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking
statements in this document will be realized. TBC Capital does not intend to update such forward-looking statements. Opinions, forecasts, estimates and/or statements relating to
expectations regarding future events or the possible future performance of investments represent TBC Capital’s own assessment and interpretation of information available to it
currently. Information obtained from the third party sources believed to be reliable, but that there is no guarantee of the accuracy and/or completeness of such information. TBC
Capital does and seeks to do and any member of the Group may or seek to do business with companies covered in this Publication. Thus, investors should be aware that TBC Capital may
have a potential conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the information contained in this Publication. This Publication may not be reproduced, redistributed or published,
in whole or in part, in any form for any purpose, without the written permission of TBC Capital, and neither TBC Capital nor any member of the Group nor any of their Representatives
accept any liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. TBC Capital makes no expressed or implied representation or warranty of usefulness in predicting the
future performance or in estimating the current or future value of any security or asset, and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or
use with respect to any data included in this Publication. Without limiting any of the foregoing and to the extent permitted by law, TBC Capital or any member of the Group or any of
their Representatives expressly disclaim all liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or damages however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this
Publication or its contents (including without limitation to the accuracy and/or completeness of information therein) or otherwise arising in connection with this Publication or for any
act or failure to act by any party on the basis of this Publication.
26TBC GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST’S OFFICE TBC CAPITAL RESEARCH
Otar Nadaraia | Chief Economist | Mary Chachanidze, CFA | Managing Director |
onadaraia@tbcbank.com.ge mchachanidze@tbccapital.ge
Ana Mjavanadze | Acting Head | Irine Kvakhadze | Head of Research |
Macro-financial Analysis Division | ikvakhadze@tbccapital.ge
anmzhavanadze@tbcbank.com.ge
Andro Tvaliashvili | Senior Research Associate |
Juli Avlokhashvili | Analyst | atvaliashvili@tbccapital.ge
Macro-financial Analysis Division |
javlokhashvili@tbcbank.com.ge Giorgi Mzhavanadze | Senior Researcher |
giomzhavanadze@tbccapital.ge
Revaz Maisuradze | Research Analyst |
remaisuradze@tbccapital.ge
Mariam Surmava | Research Analyst |
masurmava@tbccapital.ge
Maka Koridze | Junior Research Analyst |
mkoridze@tbccapital.ge
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