Emera Investor Luncheon - Toronto, ON November 27, 2018
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Agenda 10:45 – 11:45 Company Presentations Scott Balfour, President and CEO, Emera Inc. Nancy Tower, President and CEO, Tampa Electric Greg Blunden, CFO, Emera Inc. 11:45 – 12:15 Audience Q&A 12:15 – 1:30 Lunch 2
Forward-Looking Information Forward-Looking Information This document contains “forward-looking information” and statements which reflect the current view with respect to the Company’s expectations regarding future growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and may not be appropriate for other purposes within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. All such information and statements are made pursuant to safe harbour provisions contained in applicable securities legislation. The words “anticipates”, “believes”, “could”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “may”, “plans”, “projects”, “schedule”, “should”, “budget”, “forecast”, “might”, “will”, “would”, “targets” and similar expressions are often intended to identify forward-looking information, although not all forward-looking information contains these identifying words. The forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to Emera’s management and should not be read as guarantees of future events, performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether, or the time at which, such events, performance or results will be achieved. The forward-looking information is based on reasonable assumptions and is subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or results anticipated by the forward-looking information. Factors that could cause results or events to differ from current expectations are discussed in the Business Overview and Outlook section of Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) and may also include: regulatory risk; operating and maintenance risks; changes in economic conditions; commodity price and availability risk; capital market and liquidity risk; future dividend growth; timing and costs associated with certain capital projects; the expected impacts on Emera of challenges in the global economy; estimated energy consumption rates; maintenance of adequate insurance coverage; changes in customer energy usage patterns; developments in technology that could reduce demand for electricity; weather; commodity price risk; unanticipated maintenance and other expenditures; system operating and maintenance risk; derivative financial instruments and hedging; interest rate risk; credit risk; commercial relationship risk; disruption of fuel supply; country risks; environmental risks; foreign exchange; regulatory and government decisions, including changes to environmental, financial reporting and tax legislation; risks associated with pension plan performance and funding requirements; loss of service area; risk of failure of information technology infrastructure and cybersecurity risks; market energy sales prices; labour relations; and availability of labour and management resources. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information as actual results could differ materially from the plans, expectations, estimates or intentions and statements expressed in the forward-looking information. All forward-looking information in this document is qualified in its entirety by the above cautionary statements and, except as required by law, Emera undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking information as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Nothing in this document should be construed as an offer or sale of securities of Emera or any other person. Non-GAAP Measures Emera uses financial measures that do not have standardized meaning under USGAAP and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. Emera calculates the non- GAAP measures by adjusting certain GAAP measures for specific items the Company believes are significant, but not reflective of underlying operations in the period. Refer to the Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of our MD&A for further discussion of these items. 3
Emera Today RI Maritime Link(1) RI Approved ROE: 8.75-9.25% Emera New Brunswick Approved equity: 30% $0.6 billion in assets Rate base: $1.8 billion ~90% regulated portfolio of Labrador Island Link(1) RI Emera Maine Approved ROE: 8.5% predominately vertically- Approved ROE: 9.85%(3) Approved equity: 60.4%(3) Construction complete Q2 2018 integrated electric utilities and Equity investment: $492 million Rate base: $0.7 billion Equity ownership: 49.5% gas LDCs across North America Customers: 158,000 RI RI Nova Scotia Power New Mexico Gas Approved ROE: 8.75-9.25% $30B $6B Approved ROE: 10% Approved equity: 40% Approved equity: 50% Rate base: $3.7 billion Rate base: $0.6 billion Customers: 515,000 Customers: 525,000 Corporate and Other(4) $0.7 billion in assets Assets Revenues RI Tampa Electric Emera Energy Approved ROE: 9.25-11.25% Target US$15-30 million Approved equity: 54% earnings annually 2.5M 7.4K Rate base: $6.0 billion Customers: 750,000 RI Emera Caribbean RI 9.4% approved return on Peoples Gas Approved ROE: 9.25-11.75% rate base(2) Rate base: $0.6 billion Customers Employees Approved equity: 54.7% Customers: 184,000 Rate base: $0.9 billion Customers: 375,000 RI Regulated Investments Note: Emera Florida and New Mexico, Emera Maine, and Emera Caribbean dollar amounts are USD, all other CAD; all values as at December 31, 2017 (1) Maritime Link and Labrador Island Link are equity accounted and are in the Corporate and Other segment of the financial statements (2) Weighted average return on rate base. The weighted average equivalent return on equity is 12.8% with a 63.8% equity thickness. 6 (3) Weighted average of transmission, distribution, and stranded costs (4) Excluding ENL and Emera New Brunswick
CUSTOMER FOCUS Cleaner, affordable, reliable energy delivered safely ASSET FOCUS Regulated electricity & gas assets GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS North American markets with opportunities for growth Emera Dividend Target EPS Growth Capital Allocation Balance Sheet Strategy 4-5% CAGR through 6-7% rate base ongoing optimization achieve target capital 2021 CAGR to 2021 of the portfolio to structure, supporting FINANCIAL FOCUS supports average EPS achieve our financial our investment grade growth in excess of targets, with a rating the dividend growth current emphasis on target organic growth Carbon Reduction Rate Stability Innovation Sustainability investing to reduce ensuring cost exploring new executing with the carbon intensity certainty through solutions to meet the discipline to deliver STRATEGIC INITIATIVES of our operations “Fuels to Assets” and current and future for our customers, “O&M to Assets” energy needs of our employees, projects customers shareholders, communities and the environment 7
Executing on Our Strategy Strong year-to-date earnings and cash flow growth driven by load growth, solar investments and favourable market conditions in key service areas Advancing accretive, rate base investments across the portfolio, most notably in Florida Maritime Link operational and providing cash earnings and regional electrical stability Positive regulatory outcomes in Florida, mitigating the 2018 impact of US tax reform 8
696MW 16% $18.1M Renewable capacity Reduction in GHG Invested in our Sustainability installed emissions since 2005 communities We are executing with 272 Best 50 Strong discipline to deliver Proactive safety Corporate Citizen in Governance for our customers, incident reports for every 100 employees Canada (2018, Corporate 2018 Governance Gavel Award & consistently employees, across Emera Knights) top 5 in the Globe & Mail’s Board Games shareholders, communities and the Employer Leadership 83% environment 31% women on Emera Employee engagement of Choice Board index based on 2018 Canada's Top 100 and 39% of senior survey Employers (2019) executive teams 9
MARITIME LINK FLORIDA SOLAR BIG BEND MODERNIZATION $1.55 billion rate base Investing US$850 million Investing US$850 million investment placed into to install 600MW of solar to repower Unit 1 with service on January 15, in Florida; placed the first natural gas combined 2018; delivered on-time 145MW into service in cycle technology and and on-budget September 2018 retire Unit 2 10
2019-2021 Highlights $6.5+ billion capital 6% - 7% rate base CAGR 4% - 5% dividend program driving average EPS growth in growth target focused in regulated utilities excess of dividend growth returning capital to shareholders 11
Adapting to the Capital Market Cycle Emera is • Rising interest rates well • U.S. tax reform impacts positioned to • Investor preference for self-funded growth manage • Current valuation gap between Canadian through the capital and U.S. utilities market cycle 12
Redeploying Capital to Enable Growth • Potential asset sales based on Determine Strategic valuation and marketability and, in incremental review of the context of Emera’s cost of capital, funding asset long-term growth potential and requirements portfolio impact on credit quality • Rotating capital investment into our high value businesses will maximize shareholder returns Direct Identify and • Strengthening our balance sheet will proceeds to evaluate enable Emera to continue to grow high growth possible asset jurisdictions sales shareholder value 13
Sale of New England Gas Generation • Gross proceeds of US$590 million (~C$780 million) • Transaction improves business risk profile and increases the proportion of regulated earnings in Emera’s portfolio to approximately 95%, improvements that are credit positive • Proceeds to be used to repay holding company debt and to fund ongoing rate base growth initiatives • Expected to be accretive to earnings beginning in 2020, relative to issuing equity • Expected close Q1 2019 14
Asset Sales • Off to a strong start and expect total 2019-2021 Asset Sales asset sales to generate C$1.4-$2.0 Total Proceeds $1.4B - $2.0B billion of net proceeds • Expect sales to be complete by the end of 2019 $0.6B - $1.2B • Objective is to minimize, and potentially eliminate, external common equity needs beyond the DRIP $0.8B • Florida and Atlantic Canada utility assets offer greatest growth potential and will remain part of portfolio NEGG Additional Asset Sales 15
Visible Plan to Invest $6.5B+ in Rate Base Forecasted Capital Spend (1) $3.0 $2.5 $2.3 $1.1 $0.2 $2.5 $2.2 $1.8 2019F 2020F 2021F Baseline Forecast Opportunities Under Development (1) In billions of Canadian dollars. U.S. dollar denominated capex is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.30 in 2019-2021. Details by affiliate 16 can be found in the appendix. Forecast is subject to change in the normal course of business.
Investment Focused in Regulated Utilities 2019-2021 Capital by Jurisdiction (1) • Over 85% of capital being 13% deployed in Florida and Nova Scotia, both considered constructive regulatory Florida jurisdictions 19% Nova Scotia • Investment in jurisdictions with above-average equity Other 68% thicknesses will result in higher EPS growth and lower consolidated leverage (1) U.S. dollar denominated capex is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.30 in 2019-2021. Details by affiliate can be found in the appendix. 17 Forecast is subject to change in the normal course of business.
Capital Program Drives Rate Base Growth Forecasted Rate Base Levels (1) $21.6 $22.5 $20.7 $18.9 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F (1) Averagetotal rate base in billions of Canadian dollars. U.S. dollar denominated rate base is translated at forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.30 in 18 2018-2021. Florida utilities’ rate base includes deferred tax liabilities. Forecast includes Maritime Link and implied Labrador Island Link rate base. Only approved and ordinary course capital projects are included. Details by affiliate can be found in the appendix. Forecast is subject to change in the normal course of business.
Solid Long-term Shareholder Returns 5.4% 3 year 6.9% 7.5% 12.8% 5 year 5.2% 6.6% 12.7% 10 year 9.5% 8.1% 11.0% 15 year 7.3% 7.5% Emera TSX TSX Utilities Index Notes 19 (1) As at November 23, 2018
Growing and Sustainable Dividend 5.7% CAGR since 2000 4%-5% target through 2021 $0.84 $0.89 $1.16 $1.31 $1.36 $1.41 $1.48 $1.66 $2.00 $2.13 $2.28 00 05 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F 20F 21F Notes 20 (1) Denotes annual cash dividends paid.
Financial Results– Project Update Tampa Electric Nancy Tower President & CEO 21 Tampa Electric
Florida Solar Initiative • Investing approximately US$850 million to install 600 MW of solar generation by 2021 EXPECTED IN-SERVICE DATES • Investment earns AFUDC during construction • Tranche 1 (145 MW) – in service September 2018 • Tranche 2 (260 MW) – January 2019 • Full and immediate cost • Tranche 3 (145 MW) – Q1 2020 recovery starting on in-service • Tranche 4 (50 MW) – Q1 2021 date of each tranche • Annual net earnings of US$50 million in 2021 22
Progress to Date • Tranche 1 – both projects placed into service in September 2018; customer rates have been increased in accordance with the SoBRA • Tranche 2 – Florida Public Service Commission (“FPSC”) approved the SoBRA on October 29, 2018; projects are permitted and under construction • Tranche 3 and 4 – projects are beginning development and have started initial permitting and zoning 23
SOLAR PHASE 2 • Potential to invest a further US$850 million of capital to add additional 600 MW of solar • Post-2020 investment • Modernized Big Bend will act as a balancing resource for additional renewable capacity 24
BIG BEND MODERNIZATION • Investing approximately US$850 million to repower Unit 1 with natural gas combined-cycle technology and retire Unit 2 • Expect simple-cycle to be operational in 2021 and full combined-cycle in 2023 • Investment will improve land, water and air emissions, generate customer savings of approximately US$750 million and increase plant operating efficiency 25
Next Steps • The project is progressing well with procurement of major equipment items well advanced; no scheduling concerns at this time • Site Certification (SCA) and Environmental permits filed; approval anticipated May 2019 • Four major contracts have been awarded so far and all have come in under budget • Consistent with standard practice in Florida, recovery of capital and costs expected to be included in the next rate application 26
INVESTMENTS IN CUSTOMER TECHNOLOGIES AMI • US$230 million investment • Deploying more than 800,000 3rd generation meters over the next 3 years LED • US$135 million investment • Converting over 200,000 existing non-LED lights to smart LEDs over the next 4 years 27
Financial Results Financial Outlook Greg Blunden CFO 28 Emera Inc.
Strong Adjusted Earnings and EPS Growth Adjusted Net Income(1) Adjusted Earnings per Share(1) $191 $504 $0.82 $2.17 $387 $0.55 $1.82 $118 +30% +19% +62% +49% 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 Q3 September Year-to-Date Q3 September Year-to-Date (1) Adjusted net income and adjusted EPS are non-GAAP measures 29
Growing Operating Cash Flow September Year-to-Date Operating Cash Flow Pre Working Capital + 29% $1,237 $956 2017 2018 30
Redeploying Capital to Fund Rate Base Growth 2019-2021 Funding Plan Reinvested Cash Flow Asset Sale Proceeds + Common Equity ~$2.0B (30%) Total Capex ~$2.0B (~30%) ~$0.7B ~$0.3B $6.5B $0.6B - $1.2B $0B - $0.6B ~5% ~$5.5B ~$2.0B ~10% 8% - 18% 0% - 10% $0.8B ~$1.5B ~$1.5B 12% ~25% Op. Cash Dividends Holdco Debt OpCo Debt NEGG Other Select Common DRIP Preferred Total Flow Repayments Issuances Proceeds Asset Sales Equity Equity Proceeds from select asset sales are expected to materially reduce or potentially eliminate common equity requirements 31
Sale of NEGG – Strategic Rationale • Create funding flexibility to position Emera for future growth • Remove uncertainty associated with forward capacity and energy market conditions in New England • Increase proportion of regulated earnings, thereby improving the stability of Emera’s forward earnings and cash flow and reducing credit risk 32
NEGG Delivered Solid Returns for Shareholders in millions of USD Initial Cash In Investment Investment $541 delivered an unlevered return Net Cash Proceeds on investment of Cash Out Flow (1) from Sale approximately 10% $240 $590 • Initial investment made at $1.04 exchange rate versus at current rate of $1.32 • Assets sold at $516/kW, comparable to or in excess of recent precedent transactions 33 (1) Total operating cash flow less capital expenditures during Emera’s holding period (November 2013 – February 2019E)
Sale of NEGG – Impact on 2019 • Prior to the announced transaction, it was expected that NEGG would contribute 2019 earnings in line with our 2018 estimates (approximately US$40- $50 million) • The transaction is targeted to close at the end of February 34
NEGG Sale – Next Steps • Transaction close is subject to regulatory approvals • Net proceeds, net of tax and transaction costs, are expected to be US$580-585 million • Net proceeds to be used to repay US$500 million Emera US LP bonds maturing in June 2019 and to fund ongoing rate base growth investments in Florida • Expect to record a modest gain on sale in Q1 2019 35
Regulatory Update Rate Base Authorized Allowed Earned Affiliate Regulator ($ billions) ROE Equity ROE(1) Regulatory Plan TEC FPSC US$6.0 9.25 – 11.25% 54.0% 11.17% Settlement agreement through 2021 PGS FPSC US$0.9 9.25 – 11.75% 54.7% 11.25% Settlement agreement through 2020 Settlement agreement reached on distribution rate NMGC NMPRC US$0.6 10.0% n.a. 7.5% case; resolution expected Q1/19 Rate stabilization agreement through 2019; filing NSPI UARB CA$3.7 8.75 – 9.25% 40% 9.25% expected in the first half of 2019 Emera FERC & FERC transmission rates reset annually; new US$0.7 9.85%(2) 60.4%(2) 8.55%(2) Maine MPUC distribution rates were effective July 1, 2018 BLP anticipated rate application in 2018 for new Emera (5) Multi(3) US$0.6 9.3%(4) n.a. 7.9% rates in 2020; GBPC rate stability agreement Caribbean through 2021 NSPI’s rate stabilization agreement through 2019 NSPML UARB CA$1.8 8.75 – 9.25% 30% 9.00% applies to NSPML; NSPML will be seeking recovery of 2020 rates in 2019 in coordination with NSPI (1) ReflectsDecember 2017 year-end ROE (2) Weighted average transmission, distribution and stranded costs (3) Includes BLP (Fair Trading Commission), GPBC (Grand Bahama Port Authority) and DOMLEC (Independent Regulatory Commission) 36 (4) Weighted average allowed return on rate base (“RORB”) (5) Domlec’s results were negatively impacted by Hurricane Maria in 2017. Excluding Domlec, the earned RORB in the Caribbean was 9.2% vs. an authorized return of 9.5%.
Strengthening the Balance Sheet • Management goal to improve both ‘left and right’ sides of the balance sheet • HoldCo debt retirements in combination with decreased exposure to non-regulated cash flows • Achieving target capital structure and increasing exposure to our highest quality regulated cash flows improves business risk for all stakeholders September 30, 2016 September 30, 2018 2020 Target 10.4% 10.9% 10% 25.6% 35% 28.8% 64.0% 60.3% 55% Debt Equity Preferred equity Notes: (1) Preferred equity includes hybrid debt 37 (2) Equity includes the NCI and excludes AOCI
Financial Plan Supports Credit Ratings • Our financial plan supports our credit ratings, improves our financial strength and provides increased flexibility going forward • Specifically, our actions are focused on achieving: • Improved business risk through the sale of unregulated assets • Higher sustained CFO/FFO to debt metrics as compared to 2016 and 2017 • Materially reduced holding company debt as a percentage of total debt • Lower consolidated leverage 38
Financing Strategy • We have excellent businesses and we are taking the necessary actions to strengthen our balance sheet and provide financing flexibility in the future • Over the next twelve months, we will reallocate capital in a disciplined and prudent manner resulting in a stronger Emera • Our financing strategy positions us well and supports our long term growth targets Over the forecast period, adjusted EPS is expected to grow, on average, at a rate comparable to rate base growth and is expected to be in line with current market consensus. 39
Business Update Wrap Up Scott Balfour President & CEO 40 Emera Inc.
Our Growth Story 1999 2000-2005 2005-2015 2015-2016 2016-2021 BEGIN EXPAND BUILD EXPAND BUILD Emera Inc. launched with Grow geographic footprint Continued growth through Acquire TECO, doubling the Execute on organic growth an agenda for growth through acquisitions and tuck-in acquisitions and size of Emera and in regulated electric and new creation of new energy developing opportunities, establishing a platform for gas utilities companies including the Maritime Link, growth in Florida created by the demand for cleaner affordable energy 41
Why Invest in Emera • 5 year annualized total shareholder return of 11.2% compared 7.0% returned SUPERIOR SHAREHOLDER by S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index and 7.7% returned by the S&P/TSX RETURNS Composite Index • Attractive valuation by historical standards • ~90% regulated earnings STRONG EARNINGS • Adjusted earnings per share CAGR of 7.7% over the last 5 years(1) • Dividend increase of 4% to $2.35 announced August 9, 2018 GROWING DIVIDENDS • 4-5% dividend CAGR target through 2021 • Attractive 5.4% dividend yield • Strong cash coverage of dividends GROWING OPERATING CASH • 11.7% CAGR in pre working capital operating cash flow per share over the last FLOWS 5 years • $6.5+ billion 3-year capital program focused on rate base investments in VISIBLE GROWTH & FUNDING constructive regulatory jurisdictions PLAN • Funding to be provided primarily by operating cash flow, OpCo debt in support of rate base investments and proceeds from select asset sales Note: All figures as at September 30, 2018 42 (1) Adjusted earnings is a US non-GAAP financial measure
Appendix Toronto, ON November 27, 2018
Capital Forecast by Affiliate Capital Forecast (CAD millions) 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Tampa Electric $ 1,410 940 910 3,260 Peoples Gas 310 340 310 960 New Mexico Gas Company 100 190 140 430 Nova Scotia Power 340 330 350 1,020 Emera Maine 90 150 110 350 Emera Caribbean 160 70 70 300 Emera Newfoundland - 190 - 190 Other (incl. Seacoast) 80 80 60 220 Less: Asset Sale Program Adjustment - (140) (110) (250) Subtotal – Baseline Capital Forecast $ 2,490 2,140 1,840 6,480 Add: Opportunities Under Development - 190 1,130 1,320 Total Capital Forecast 2,490 2,340 2,970 7,800 (1) In millions of Canadian dollars. Forecasted capital includes AFUDC. U.S. dollar denominated capex is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange 44 rate of 1.30 in 2019-2021.
Rate Base Forecast by Affiliate 2017- 2018- 2020 2021 Rate Base (CAD millions)(1) 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F CAGR CAGR Tampa Electric(2) $ 7,850 8,400 9,375 10,150 10,650 8.9% 8.2% Peoples Gas(2) 1,175 1,250 1,475 1,700 1,900 13.1% 15.0% New Mexico Gas Company 775 725 750 850 925 3.1% 8.5% Nova Scotia Power 3,675 3,775 3,950 4,200 4,350 4.6% 4.8% Emera Maine 950 950 950 1,000 1,075 1.7% 4.2% Emera Caribbean 750 825 1,050 1,050 1,025 11.9% 7.5% Maritime Link(3) 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,775 1,725 -0.5% -1.4% Labrador Island Link(4) 1,100 1,175 1,300 1,875 1,850 19.5% 16.3% Less: Expected Asset Sales - - - (1,000) (1,000) n.a. n.a. Total $ 18,075 18,900 20,650 21,600 22,500 6.1% 6.0% (1) Average total rate base in billions of Canadian dollars. U.S. dollar denominated capex is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.30 in 2018-2021. (2) Includes deferred tax liability, a zero cost-of-capital component of the regulated capital structure in Florida 45 (3) Maritime Link begins to depreciate in 2020 when Muskrat Falls is fully operational (4) Implied rate base based on a 45% equity thickness.
Target Long-term HoldCo Debt Retirements Target Debt Retirements Issuance (CAD millions) Currency 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Emera Finance LP USD $ 650 - - 650 Emera Inc. CAD 225 - - 225 NMGI USD 65 - - 65 TECO Finance USD - 390 - 390 Total $ 940 390 - 1,330 (1) In billions of Canadian dollars. U.S. dollar denominated debt is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.30 in 2019-2021. 46
You can also read