Luxury Cosmetics Trends - 2022 Less is More: How Gen Z is Disrupting the Beauty, Skincare, and Makeup Industries and What to Watch for in 2022 ...
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2022 Luxury Cosmetics Trends Less is More: How Gen Z is Disrupting the Beauty, Skincare, and Makeup Industries and What to Watch for in 2022. © 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
Introduction 3
Data Analyzed for this Report 4
Overall Insights: Gen Z is Changing the Beauty Game 5
Category Winners: Skincare Dominates the Conversation 6
Category Losers: Pandemic Mammoths Lose Momentum 7
Subcategory Winners: Get More Done with Less Product 8
Subcategory Losers: Trading in the At-Home Spa 10
Ingredients Winners and Losers: The Shift to Natural, Clean, and
Eco-Conscious 11
Need States Winners and Losers: Younger Consumers and Evergreen
Skincare Needs 13
Themes Winners and Losers: Drawing the Line on Sustainability 15
Fragrances Winners and Losers: Less is More 17
Forms Winners and Losers: The Minimalist Beauty Routine 19
Colors Winners and Losers: Adjusting to Pre-Pandemic Norms 21
About Simporter 22
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Long before Instagram influencers existed, young people have been the
driving force creating and interpreting trends. The eldest of Gen Z, defined by
those born between 1995 and 2020, are now in their early and mid-20s and
year-over-year are seeing a dramatic increase in their spending power.
These digital natives have been exposed to the internet and social media
since a young age, making their generation comfortable collecting many
sources of information before making a purchase decision. Quality ingredients
is the name of the game.
While millennials and older generations have been under the assumption that
more is better, Gen Z fundamentally sees cosmetics in a different way. For
them, less is more. Say goodbye to caked-on makeup because this
generation is all about achieving effortlessly chic routines that are simple,
clean, and sustainable.
Today’s consumers can no longer be swayed by high-end brand names and
beautiful packaging alone. Younger shoppers have a sophisticated
appreciation for ingredients and will be looking for clean products that truly
connect with their audience’s needs. Sephora has a Clean Beauty Guide Clean
Beauty Guide to help consumers find products without harmful ingredients
and even breaks out products that are both clean and “planet positive.”
Additionally, with more time spent indoors during COVID-19, people wore less
makeup and became more particular about what they put on their skin. Many
opted for home spa days and DIY self-care regimens over the traditional
commercial/retail spa experience and as a result, higher quality products
were needed for home and personal use.
As the world returns to pre-pandemic norms, consumers will have less time
and money to spend on their self-care regimen as they look to get more done
with less - while not compromising on quality, sourcing, and sustainability.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
Data Analyzed for this Report
Using our White Space AI tool, we’ve collected and dissected 3.8 million
consumer data points to understand where consumer interest is headed in
2022 and beyond. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer
sentiment patterns, product descriptions, and search traffic to make highly
accurate trend predictions. Through this process, we’re able to understand
what ingredients, need states, and sensory attributes are coming up in that
data. We use that information to make predictions about the future, taking the
following into consideration:
Consumer demand
Overall opportunity size
Competition
Innovation opportunities
Our opportunity analysis helps brands understand where to invest next. This
de-risks new product development and ultimately grows new product
revenue. Data insights like these have proven useful to any business looking to
get ahead of the curve.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Overall Insights:
Gen Z is Changing the Beauty Game
With nearly 4M consumer data points analyzed, the team here at Simporter is
predicting quite a bit of growth in the luxury cosmetics category. The beauty
industry, while highly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread
use of facemasks, will also be profoundly impacted by Gen Z.
2021 saw an influx of user-generated data, such as social media mentions
and product reviews, largely driven by the generation who grew up with it. As
the world shut down and screens dominated day-to-day life, consumers
redefined how they felt about how they looked and what they put on their skin.
So, they’re going to be looking for products that meet these new criteria.
The luxury cosmetics market is expected to see rapid growth in 2022. While
next year will still be considered a recovery period from COVID-19, more
consumers will be talking about and searching for makeup and skincare
products. According to Bloomberg, Gen Z is already spending 125 percent
compared to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2019. Our team predicts this will continue
to rise in 2022.
Not surprisingly, we will see a higher percentage of consumer conversations
and searches for skincare than makeup. Younger consumers have embraced
a less is more mindset. They’re stripping back skincare and makeup routines
in favor of a more minimalist approach. This mindset is all about pulling back,
harnessing the power of multitasking and multipurpose products, and
committing to a more sustainable (and usually cheaper) beauty regimen.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Category Winners:
Skincare Will Dominate the
Conversation
We analyzed data points across 22 categories to get a sense for where the
market will be focused in 2022. Powders and sun care/self-tanning products
take the first two spots, growing 48 percent and 32 percent respectively.
They’re followed by industry giants, creams and foundations, which are
predicted to continue their strong performance into next year. Most of the
predicted winning categories are skincare-focused, which is in line with
younger consumer preferences for simple products that address multiple
needs.
As people take off their masks and readjust to normalcy, they’re ready to
break out their lip products. Lips rank 6th on the list with an 11.58 percent
growth rate and 9.58 percent share of voice. Lips spiked in popularity when
masks came off mid-2021, so the category was expected to rank at the top of
the list in 2022. However, consumers are opting for powders and sun
care/self-tanning products instead, doubling down consumer interest in
skincare over makeup.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
Category Losers:
Pandemic Mammoths Will Lose
Momentum
A number of categories are expected to lose momentum going into next year.
Most interesting on this list are scrubs and masks, two products that carried so
many through the pandemic. These two categories have been dominant the
past 2 years, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic. As we look to 2022, this
dynamic will shift and these two categories will continue on a downward
trajectory.
It’s evident that consumers have moved beyond self-care and will be
interested in categories that better align with their post-pandemic routines.
We’re no longer confined to our homes in the same way that we were for the
vast majority of 2020 and early 2021, so products that require lengthy time
commitments and/or daily reapplications won’t trend up in the same way
we’ve seen over the last 18 months.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
Subcategory Winners:
Getting More Done with Less Product
While at-home self-care is declining, there are a number of subcategories
expected to grow across the next year. Contour products (contouring is a
makeup technique that uses cosmetics to define, enhance, and sculpt the
structure of the face or other body parts) hold a very high growth opportunity,
predicted to grow at 79.44 percent year-over-year. With the emergence of
TikTok, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and other quick-tutorial channels,
influencer communities have jumped on the trend and will continue to do so
as we approach 2022.
Night creams are second on the highest opportunities list. With a 0.49 percent
share of voice, night creams are expected to grow 85.5 percent, the largest
growth potential of all the subcategories. With many readjusting to
pre-pandemic routines, consumers will have less time to spend on at-home
self-care regimens. Night creams are the perfect solution as people will try to
get more done with less time, effort, and money.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Masks are a thing of the past in many states here in the US, as well as
countries all around the world. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that other
subcategories we analyzed - such as eyeshadows, tinted moisturizers, and
lipsticks - have shown high growth potential for the upcoming year. As more
and more individuals return to their routines and see friends, family, and
colleagues without masks, products like these will resurge in popularity and
demand.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
Subcategory Losers:
Trading in the At-Home Spa
So, where is the share of voice declining? The bulk of negative growth rate is
going to be seen across products used for at-home self-care, such as
Cleansers, Eye Creams, Makeup Removers, etc. Overall, consumer interest will
be shifting back to pre-COVID-19 norms. Regardless of which generation a
consumer falls under, it’s evident that the reopening of economies worldwide
will put a significant speed bump in the way of product development and
growth within the at-home care categories.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 10Ingredients Winners and Losers:
The Shift to Natural, Clean, and
Eco-Conscious
Fan-favorite Aloe Vera tops the list with a 412 percent predicted growth rate.
It’s chock full of minerals and well-known for its ability to soothe and hydrate
the skin, minimize the impact of sunburns, and it can even help reduce acne.
People are familiar with the ingredient, know how it can help, and feel satisfied
when they use it.
Chia Seed Extract sits right behind Aloe Vera. It contains healthy fats that have
been shown to help strengthen and restore the skin’s moisture barrier, which is
helpful to those with dry skin conditions. Additionally, it combats the serious
danger of long-term UV damage, which is something everyone should be
thinking about.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 11As consumers look for more transparency behind their favorite products,
ingredients like Rose Water, Jasmine, and Cucumber will likely struggle to
compete. While very popular across 2019 and early 2020, they will continue to
lose steam as consumers focus on products that are natural, clean, and
eco-conscious.
Today’s consumers are keenly aware of what ingredients are used in their
cosmetic products to make sure they’re safe and when possible, eco-friendly.
The increasing awareness of climate change will push consumers to seek out
ethical and environmentally conscious products.
Not only should cosmetic products make people feel good, but they also need
to do good in the process. It’s evident from our analysis that in order to grow
your business in the cosmetics industry, your ingredients will need to have a
focus on quality, sustainability, and ethical sourcing.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 12Need States Winners and Losers:
Younger Consumers and Evergreen
Skincare Needs
Consumer demand is a critical component for any trend analysis, so let’s dig
into consumer need states (needs consumers claim to have). We analyzed
107 needs to understand which are dominating consumer conversations.
There will be an overwhelming shift towards skincare needs as 2022
approaches. With COVID-19, people took more time to evaluate what
mattered most to them in beauty and skincare products. Gen Z is flooding the
market with evergreen skincare needs, such as dry skin, acne treatment, and
bacteria removal and they’re likely the generation (along with Millenials) that
hold the greatest buying power in these categories.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 13A number of trending needs from the past two years will see negative growth
in 2022. While Hypoallergenic and Skincare Routine needs are certainly not
going away any time soon, they will just not be searched for as often. Products
for Routine and Daily Use will decline as consumers spend less time investing
in self-care and more time commuting to work, at social gatherings, traveling,
and doing other activities.
It’s not surprising to see Anti-Aging on the negative growth list as the market
shifts to younger consumers who are interested in other needs. As mentioned
previously, Gen Z will hold a significant share of the buying power in 2022.
Therefore, products geared towards older consumers who see greater
perceived value in Anti-Aging benefits won’t make as large of an impact on
consumers as they have in past years.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 14Theme Winners and Losers:
Drawing the Line on Sustainability
Our AI tool analyzed 38 themes to find those with the biggest potential in the
new year. Talc-free takes the number one spot with an impressive 752.17
percent growth potential.
Talcum Powder is a common ingredient in powder compacts, finishing
powders, eye shadows, etc. because it creates a soft, silky texture, reduces
inflammation, and combats UV damage. However, it’s been reported to
contain asbestos, which has been linked to causing Cancer. It’s even called
out on Ulta’s Made Without List to help consumers make more informed
purchasing decisions. Consumers will not only be looking for products without
this ingredient, but they will be looking for products that specifically claim to
be Talc-free.
Instagram is near the top of this list as social media ingrains itself in the
everyday life of consumers. The majority of skincare and cosmetic influencers
promote and educate via Instagram, so the platform will continue to grow
with their established audiences and loyal followers.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 15As consumer preferences shift toward clean and natural, Vegan products will
gain a lot of traction. People will spend more time researching to have a better
understanding of what exactly they’re purchasing and whether or not the
product is sustainably sourced. In many cases, consumers will go a level
deeper to ensure that the company itself follows ethical eco-friendly practices
in manufacturing, sourcing, and distribution of the products. Clean and
natural tells you one thing, but Vegan adds an additional layer of assurance
that the product purchased meets your quality standards and expectations.
Themes expected to see negative growth include Recycled, Celebrity
Endorsed, and Hypoallergenic. While Recycled may be a surprise, it’s
important to note that while consumers are focused on sustainability, they’re
primarily focused on what they’re putting on their skin even in a time where
environmental consciousness is top-of-mind.
Consumers will not be as concerned with the supply chain, packaging, or
recycle-focused aspects of the product. There’s a lack of transparency
around Recycled materials, so consumers are less likely to trust what is
actually recycled, versus what simply claims to be recycled. However, Ulta
Beauty has vetted brands like OSEA and Eva NYC for Sustainable Packaging,
meaning at least 50 percent of their packaging is made from recycled or
bio-sourced materials (or be recyclable or refillable). If other big-box retailers
(i.e. Nordstrom, Sephora, Bloomingdales) can vet the brands they offer
in-store and online, Recycled is sure to stabilize and even make a return to the
priorities list for this category.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 16Fragrances Winners and Losers:
Less will be More
We analyzed 28 different fragrances to see what will be trending next year.
Natural elements like Rain Water and Vanilla take the top two spots on the list
with impressive triple-digit growth potential and a decent share of voice over 1
percent each.
Consumer preferences will shift toward lightly scented and unscented
fragrances, indicating consumers are doubling down on their interest in
natural and clean scents for their homes, cars, and offices. More mainstream
fragrances like Citrus are expected to perform well, just not as well as they
have in past years.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 17Our predicted losers list is composed of previously popular Sweet, Floral, and
Fruity fragrances. These fragrances will decline while natural fragrances ride
the upswing. Floral fragrances will still be popular and hold considerable
market share, but brands should look to lighten the scent or focus on more
natural floral elements. Again, less is more to today’s buyer pool.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 18Forms Winners and Losers:
The Minimalist Beauty Routine
Since forms are typically influenced by the other categories, we won’t spend a
ton of time dissecting our predictions here. It’s not surprising to see Powders
take the number one slot with the shift towards cleaner, minimalist beauty
routines. Gen Z loves a fresh, natural, glowy look, so they will be looking for
product forms like powders, pads, creams, and pills to fill this need.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 19Products that were essential to home spa care, such as Wipes, Oils, Sprays,
and Serums, are expected to see negative growth. While likely to remain
popular, they just won’t be at the forefront of consumer conversations. This is
because many of these products feature ingredients that don’t check some of
the “must-have” boxes we’ve addressed throughout this article, such as
natural ingredients, ethically sourced, and so forth.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 20Colors Winners and Losers:
Adjusting to Pre-Pandemic Norms
While bright colors like Red spiked when masks came off, the colors expected
to perform the best in 2022 are colors and finishes similar to pre-pandemic
preferences. Prior to COVID-19, the most popular colors being used across
most makeup/skincare categories fell under what we’d classify as “natural”
tones. High-impact colors and shines such as Sheer, Glitter, and Satin that
spiked in demand mid-2021 are expected to normalize to pre-pandemic levels
as we head into 2022.
© 2021 Simporter, Inc. All rights reserved. 21About Simporter Simporter was founded in 2018 with the mission to automate new product research. We believe that Artificial Intelligence is the biggest thing to happen to market research since surveys were created. Together, our team consists of some of the most experienced CPG professionals, brightest data scientists, quickest software engineers, and the most technology-driven marketers. We help major CPG brands create better products with data instead of human guesswork. Our mission is global, with our two main offices split between Atlanta and Kyiv. Ready to find your big idea to bring to market? https://simporter.com/demo Contact us today for a product demo!
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