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 LOW-COST,
 HIGH HOPES
 THE BUDGET AIRLINE
 REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC

February 2014

LIFT-OFF FOR UK
SPACE

CYBERSECURITY
AND AVIATION

IRANIAN GA
AIRCRAFT
LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
2014
Honours, Medals
& Awards

The most prestigious and
long-standing awards in
global aerospace honouring
achievements, innovation
and excellence.
The Society’s Honours, Medals and Awards are open to everyone in the global aerospace
community — from senior professionals to students and graduates.

Do you know an individual or team that has made an outstanding contribution to
aerospace and merit recognition? Nominate them today. The nomination form can
be found on our website www.aerosociety.com/medalsandawards. The closing date
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LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
ATR
Volume 41 Number 2

                                                                                                                                        Textron AirLand
February 2014

                                                                                               Low-cost high hopes                                                                                  Flight of the Scorpion
                                                                                               The growth of the Asia-                                                                              Textron AirLand launches
                                                                                         14    Pacific low-cost air
                                                                                               transport market.                                                                       30           new low-cost jet strike
                                                                                                                                                                                                    aircraft.

Contents
Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK                                          publications@aerosociety.com

                         Comment                                                                                                                          Regulars
                                                                                                                                                          4 Radome                               12 Transmission
                                                                                                                                                          The latest aviation and                Your letters, emails, tweets
                                                                                                                                                          aeronautical intelligence,             and feedback.
                                                                                                                                                          analysis and comment.

  Iran: winners and losers                                                                                                                                10 Antenna
                                                                                                                                                          Howard Wheeldon looks
                                                                                                                                                                                                 58 The Last Word
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Keith Hayward on the new
                                                                                                                                                                                                 space race in Asia.
                                                                                                                                                          at the future of defence

                                                                                                                          BAE Systems
                                                                                                                                                          procurement privatisation

  The current international negotiations over
  Iran’s nuclear ambitions raise the possibility that
  Tehran’s leadership may be seeking to give up
                                                                                                                                                          Features

                                                                                                                                                                                          USMC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dorna Aircraft
  its plans for nuclear weapons — in return for relief
  from crippling sanctions. It is obviously very early
  days yet and, given Iran’s history, there is much to be said for Ronald
  Reagan’s famous maxim ‘trust but verify’ — but the change in attitude
  has been refreshing. Moreover, any breakthrough agreement will have
  significant implications for the aerospace industry. Should sanctions
  be lifted, even slightly, this may open up a previously closed or highly
  restricted market for Western products, skills and services. It may even,                                                                               18                                     32
  as seen on page 32, go in the opposite direction with aerospace talent                                                                                                                         Persian Eagle
  from Iran now able to market their products and skills to the world.                                                                                    Pacific storm                          Profile of Iranian GA
       Yet there also may be a downside for some companies. Military                                                                                      Asia-Pacific defence                   manufacturer Dorna Aircraft.
  procurement in the Gulf, for example, has been mainly driven by fears                                                                                   round-up.
  of the Iranian threat. Only recently, it has to be remembered, that talk of

                                                                                                                                                                                          NASA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Reaction Engines
  a joint Israel/US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities (and the potential for
  wider war in the Gulf) was presented as a ‘when, not if’ choice.
       So was it, therefore, coincidence that the UAE decided against
  acquiring Eurofighter Typhoon late last year, despite high-level
  lobbying? Or was it a merely a pragmatic move by the UAE that with
  conciliatory noises emanating from Tehran, there was now no need to be
  rushed into a decision over an expensive combat aircraft? With a global
  buyer’s market for fighter aircraft, the UAE can afford to wait and should                                                                                                                      34
  peace talks with Iran break down — it can be sure that re-opening the                                                                                   22                                     Lift-off for UK space
  contest will have defence companies falling over themselves to offer                                                                                                                           A 20-year vision for the UK
  better deals.                                                                                                                                           It’s hip to be square
                                                                                                                                                                                                 space industry.
                                                                                                                                                          The CubeSat revolution.
       As ever — there are both winners and losers.

  Tim Robinson                                                                                                                                                                                   39 Careers in Aerospace
NEWS IN BRIEF                                                                                                                                             26 Cybersecurity and
                                                                                                                                                          aviation
                                                                                                                                                                                                 LIVE
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Report on the 2013 RAeS
         tim.robinson@aerosociety.com                                                                                                                     Tackling the hacker threat.            careers fair.

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  www.aerosociety.com                         Front cover: Sharklets fitted to an AirAsia A320. Airbus                                                    56 RAeS Elections                                 in controlled airspace

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LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
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           INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT

                                      Self-defence
                                      The Gripen NG features a comprehensive
                                      EW self-defence system. Elisra will provide
                                      a passive IR missile warning system, while
                                      the fighter will be one of the first to offer the
                                      Selex BriteCloud Expendable Active Decoy
                                                                                               Extra range
                                                                                               Relocating the
                                      as part of its defence suite.                            undercarriage position
                                                                                               allows a 40% increase
                                                                                               in fuel capacity, giving a
                                                                                               combat radius of 700nm and
                                                                                               ferry range of 2,200nm. A
                                                                                               retractable IFR probe is now
                                                                                               fitted.

           NEWS IN BRIEF

           ?????? ???? ???? ??? ???
           ????? ????? ??????

           ?????? ???? ???? ??? ???
           ????? ????? ??????

           ?????? ???? ???? ??? ???
           ????? ????? ??????

           ?????? ???? ???? ??? ???
           ????? ????? ??????                                                             More power
                                                                                          The Gripen NG replaces the Volvo RM12/
           ?????? ???? ???? ??? ???                                                       F404 used on the C/D with GE’s F414G
           ????? ?????                                                                    engine — as used on the F/A-18 Super
                                                                                          Hornet — giving the Gripen NG 20% more
                                                                                          thrust and allowing supercruise.
    Saab

4          AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
Sensor fusion
The Gripen NG features a partioned
avionics architecture — separating flight
safety and mission functions — allowing from
rapid updates. One such upgrade could be                                                     AESA radar
replacing the three colour cockpit MFDs                                                      The Gripen NG features the Selex Galileo ES
with a single giant touchscreen display.                                                     05 Raven active electronically scanned array
                                                                                             (AESA) radar, with a moving swash plate that
                                                                                             allows scan angles up to 100°.

                                                                                                         IRST
                                                                                                         Sensors also include the Selex
                                                                                                         Skyward-G passive infrared search
                                                                                                         and track system (IRST).

                                                                  More weapons
                                                                  Relocated landing gear now
                                                                  allows ten external hardpoints for
                                                                  carrying weapons, external fuel
                                                                  tanks, surveillance and targeting
                                                                  pods. For Brazil, integrated air-to-
                                                                  air missiles may include Derby,
                                                                  A-Darter and Meteor.

  DEFENCE

  Lightweight champ lands
  knock-out blow in Brazil
  Brazil has selected the Saab Gripen NG to become its air force’s new fighter aircraft, beating off competition from
  the Dassault Rafale and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The $4·5bn F-X2 contract will see 36 Gripens replace
  ageing Dassault Mirage 2000C fighters and Northrop F-5EMs. The contract is expected to be signed in 10-12 months
  with first deliveries to follow 48 months later, although older Gripen C/Ds from the Swedish Air Force may be
  supplied first until the new aircraft are ready.

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LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
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                          AEROSPACE                                                                                                DEFENCE
                                                                                  FanWing wins                                     France approves Rafale
                                                                                   EU research                                     F3 R upgrade
                                                                                        project                                    The French Defence              BVRAAM missile, a Thales
                                                                                                                                   Ministry has given              PDL-NG laser designation
                                                                                                                                   the go-ahead for                pod and the latest laser
                                                                                                                                   Dassault to develop             homing version of the
                                                                                                                                   the fourth tranche of           Sagem AASM Hammer
    FanWing/Adrian Mann

                                                                                                                                   Rafale fighters to F3 R         air-to-ground modular
                                                                                                                                   standard.                       weapon, already trialed in
                                                                                                                                   The upgraded version            Mali. Validation of these
                                                                                                                                   will include integration        new weapons is expected
                                                                                                                                   with the MBDA Meteor            by 2018.

                          Innovative rotating wing propulsion aircraft developer FanWing has received a joint
                          EU award for a two-year research and development project. Led by the DLR German
                                                                                                                                    Bombardier’s $2bn
                          Aerospace and Space Research Centre, the SOAR (diStributed Open-rotor AiRcraft)                           biz-jet order
                          project is being conducted by FanWing in conjunction with the University of Saarland and                  Bombardier has completed a $2·2bn
                          the von Karman Institute. Work will include wind-tunnel testing and CFD data and analysis                 order for 38 business jets from an
                          documentation with the aim of optimising rotor blades and wingshape. Experimental data                    unidentified customer. The order is for 28
                          collected during the programme will be used to design a full-size open fan wing aircraft
                                                                                                                                    Global and ten Challenger 605 biz-jets.
                          design suitable for carrying 60-70 passengers or up to eight tons of freight.

                      SPACEFLIGHT                                                                AIR TRANSPORT
                          Third powered flight for                                                Aeroflot unveils Red Devil
                          Virgin Galactic
                          Virgin Galactic’s              an altitude of 46,000ft
                          SpaceShipTwo made its          and Mach 1·4 above the
                          third rocket-powered test      Mojave Desert. The flight
                          flight on 10 January. The      also tested new reflective               Russian flag carrier Aeroflot has unveiled one of two new Airbus A321s which will
                                                                                      Aeroflot

                          ten-minute flight saw          thermal protection for the               feature the red, white and blue livery of the Manchester United football team. The
                          the spaceplane reach           tail booms.                              football club signed a five-year partnership with Aeroflot in July 2013.

                     NEWS IN BRIEF
                                                                                                 been in hibernation mode                                          Medina on 5 January after
                          Brazilian aircraft             India has cancelled a                   since June 2011.                  On 4 January Airbus rolled      its right landing gear failed
                          manufacturer Embraer has       $770m order for 12                                                        out its fourth A350 flight      to deploy.
                          announced that it met its      AW101 helicopters from                  Remanufactured bizjet             test aircraft. The first A350
                          planned delivery targets for   AgustaWestland following                specialist Nextant                to be fitted with a fully       The first Reaper UAVs to
                          2013. During the year, the     allegations of malpractice              Aerospace has announced           equipped cabin interior,        be operated by the French
                          company delivered a total      in the purchase process.                that it is to fly its first re-   MSN2 features a special         Air Force have been
                          of 90 commercial aircraft      (see Pacific Storm p 18)                engined and modernised            ‘all carbon’ black and white    deployed to the Sahel
                          and 119 business jets.                                                 King Air G90XT in the             chequered livery.               region of Africa in support
                                                         Scientists at ESA have                  first quarter of this year.                                       of the on-going French
                          Malaysian carrier AirAsiaX     reactivated the Rosetta                 The G90XT replaces the            A total of 29 people            campaign in Mali.
                          has ordered 25 Airbus          space probe prior to its                original G90 aircraft’s Pratt     are reported to have
                          A330-300s plus ten             planned rendezvous with                 & Whitney Canada PT6              been injured during the         SpaceX has launched the
                          options. The airline is        Comet 67P/Churyumov-                    engines with GE H80s,             evacuation of a Saudi           Asian communications
                          planning to use the aircraft   Gerasimenko in November                 together with a Garmin            Airlines Boeing 767-            satellite Thaicom 6 into
                          for low-cost long-haul         2014. Launched in March                 G1000 flightdeck and new          300ER after it made an          geosynchronous transfer
                          operations.                    2004, the spacecraft has                interiors.                        emergency landing in            orbit (GTO) aboard a

6                         AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
SPACEFLIGHT                                                             AIR TRANSPORT                                                     AEROSPACE
                     Cygnus delivers Airports Commission                                                                                   Airbus,
                      supplies to ISS tips Heathrow/Gatwick                                                                                Boeing
                                      expansion                                                                                            2013
                                                                        The Airports Commission,          options suggested by the         results
                                                                        led by Sir Howard Davies,         report is the building of a
                                                                        has published its interim         third 3,500m runway at
                                                                        report on the future              Heathrow, lengthening
                                                                        expansion of UK airports,         an existing Heathrow
                                                                        saying that one additional        runway to 6,000m and a
                                                                        runway is needed by 2030.         new 3,000m runway at

                                                                                                                                                                    Airbus
                                                                        Among the short-listed            Gatwick.

Private US space                  delivered supplies to                 DEFENCE                                                            Airbus has
company Orbital                   the ISS, arriving on 12
                                                                                                                                           reported that it
Sciences Corporation
launched its Cygnus
                                  January. The launch
                                  was originally scheduled
                                                                            Pave Hawk crash in                                             outsold Boeing in
cargo spacecraft aboard           for 8 January but was                     UK kills four                                                  2013 with a record
an Antares rocket from            postponed due to                                                                                         total of 1,503 net
the NASA Wallops Flight           unusually high levels of                  A US Air Force HH-60G         RAF Lakenheath when it           orders compared
Facility in Virginia on 9         space radiation which                     Pave Hawk helicopter          came down on a nature            to Boeing’s total of
January.                          exceeded the spacecraft’s                 crashed in East Anglia on     reserve near Cley next the
                                                                                                                                           1,355. Airbus also
                                                                NASA

The unmanned spacecraft           design constraints.                       7 January killing all four    Sea in Norfolk. The cause
                                                                                                                                           trumped Boeing
                                                                            crew. The aircraft was on     of the accident is under
                                                                            a training mission from       investigation.
                                                                                                                                           with its current
                                                                                                                                           order backlog
GENERAL AVIATION                                                                                                                           of 5,559 aircraft
Embraer’s Legacy 450                                                                                                                       against Boeing's
                                                                                                                                           4,080 orderbook.
makes first flight                                                                                                                         However, Boeing
Embraer’s latest biz-jet          facility in Sao Jose dos                                                                                 took top spot
the ‘mid light’ Legacy            Campos, Brazil. The full                                                                                 for production,
450 made its maiden               fly-by-wire Legacy 450, a                                                                                delivering 648
flight on 28 December             smaller variant of the 500,
                                                                                                                                           aircraft compared
in a 95 minute test flight        is expected to achieve
                                                                     USAF

                                                                                                                                           to Airbus’ 626.
from the manufacturer’s           certification in 2015.

Falcon 9 rocket. Lift-off         flight to New Zealand. Flag               a long-term contract          volunteers for a one-way        Sikorsky S-76Ds that
took place on 6 January           carrier Air New Zealand is                to sustain the Royal          trip to the Red Planet,         Bristow placed in March
from Cape Canaveral AFB.          the launch customer for                   Netherlands Air Force’s       starting in 2025.               2013.
                                  the -9 variant.                           fleet of Hercules C-130s.     The applicants were drawn
US GA manufacturer                                                          Under the Cockpit Upgrade     from some 202,000               Engine manufacturer
Mooney is to restart aircraft     Singapore leasing                         (CUP) and Cabin Safety        people who responded            Snecma has announced
production following a            company Avation has                       Improvements (CSIMP)          to Mars One’s call for          that it is to build a
cash infusion from its            bought five ATR 72-600                    Sustainment Programme         colonists for the ultimate      prototype open-rotor which
new Chinese owners. The           regional turboprops plus                  (CCSP), Marshall ADG          reality TV show.                will be ground tested in
Mooney production line            five options. The new order               will provide airworthiness,                                   2016 and flight tested on
was closed in 2008 but            means that Avation now                    maintenance and reliability   Bristow Group has               an Airbus A340 in 2019.
could be working again            has 14 new ATR 72-600s                    information.                  received its first fully
within six months.                to be delivered before the                                              configured S-76D                Bombardier has won
                                  end of 2015.                              Dutch-based Martian           helicopter from Sikorsky        an order from American
In January a Boeing 787-9                                                   colony space company,         for offshore oil-rig support.   Airlines for 30 CRJ900
test aircraft made its first      Marshall Aerospace and                    Mars One has chosen           The delivery is the first       regional jets plus 40
overseas debut with a             Defence Group has won                     a shortlist of 1,058          of an order for up to 26        options.

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LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
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    AEROSPACE                                                                                      GENERAL AVIATION
    Textron to buy                                                                                   London Air                            The London Air Ambulance service has celebrated
    Beechcraft                                                                                       Ambulance’s                             its first 25 years of operation. Starting in January
                                                                                                                                          1990 flying out of Biggin Hill, the service has come

    The recently rebranded        the parent company of
                                                                                                     silver jubilee                     to the aid of over 30,000 patients. The service is now
                                                                                                                                                            fundraising for a second helicopter.
    US GA manufacturer              Beechcraft for $1·4bn

                              $
    Beechcraft                                deal, and bring
    is to be                                      together
    bought                                          the
    by                                               Cessna
    Textron,                                          and
    owner                                                                   London Air Ambulance
    of the                                           Beechcraft
    Cessna GA                                 GA and business
    company and Bell               aircraft brands. The deal is
    Helicopters. Textron is       expected to be completed
    to buy Beech Holdings,        in the first half of 2014.

    DEFENCE                                                                                                                       SPACEFLIGHT
                                                                                                   US aerospace company
    Is it a truck? Is it a plane?                                                                  Advanced Tactics has           Reaction Engines tie up
                                                                                                   developed a vertical
                                                                                                   take-off military transport
                                                                                                                                  with USAF research lab
                                                                                                   vehicle. Named the AT
                                                                                                   Black Knight Transformer,      UK space company                 and potential future
                                                                                                   an unmanned technology         Reaction Engines                 development of Reaction
                                                                                                   demonstrator completed         has arranged a co-               Engines’ SABRE air-
                                                                                                   driving tests in December      operative research and           breathing rocket engine
                                                                                                   2013 and is scheduled to       development agreement            designed for low-cost
                                                                                                   make its first flight early    with the US Air Force            space access and high-
                                                                                                   this year. The vehicle is      Research Laboratory’s            speed atmospheric flight.
                                                                  Advanced Tactics

                                                                                                   designed for autonomous        Aerospace Systems                The assessement will
                                                                                                   casualty evacuation,           Directorate (AFRL/RQ).           be used to inform US
                                                                                                   as well as manned or           The tie up will assess the       government stakeholders
                                                                                                   unmanned cargo resupply.       performance, applications        of SABRE’s potential.

    NEWS IN BRIEF
                                  additional Ariane 5                                              which will have test sites     regulatory approval, the         (SLS) heavy lift rocket.
    The USAF and US Coast         launchers from Airbus                                            for the commercial use         name change will take
    Guard (USCG) are to swap      Defence & Space. The new                                         of UAVs. The six states        place in the second quarter      A Kamov Ka-32 helicopter
    two aircraft types — with     Ariane 5s are scheduled to                                       are Alaska, Nevada, New        of 2014.                         from a Chinese icebreaker
    the USCG acquiring 14         begin launching from 2017                                        York, North Dakota, Texas                                       has successfully airlifted to
    surplus USAF C-27J            onwards.                                                         and Virginia. The sites will   BAE Systems has said that        safety passengers aboard
    Spartan transports that                                                                        be used to help develop        RAF Tornados have flown          a research vessel that had
    were put into temporary       A pilot was killed and                                           operational rules for the      with 3D printed or additive      been trapped in Antarctic
    storage. In exchange, the     two others injured when                                          safe operation of UAVs in      layer manufacturing (ALM)        ice.
    Air Force is set to receive   a Canadair Challenger                                            commercial airspace by the     parts. BAE predicts this
    seven C-130s from the         601 private jet crashed                                          end of 2015.                   could cut the cost of            Members of the Boeing
    Coast Guard, which will       at Aspen/Pitkin County                                                                          spares by over £1·2m in          machinists union voted by
    be converted into forestry    airport in Chicago on 5                                          The American Airlines          the next four years.             51 to 49% on 3 January
    fire-fighting aircraft.       January.                                                         Group is to rebrand its                                         to accept a new contract
                                                                                                   American Eagle Airlines        ATK has completed hot fire       which should ensure the
    Arianespace has placed        The US FAA has                                                   subsidiary under the new       avionics tests on NASA’s         continuation of Boeing
    an €2bn order for 18          announced the six states                                         name of Envoy. Subject to      new Space Launch System          777 production in Seattle.

8   AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
DEFENCE                                     777Xs for                       AEROSPACE
UAE pulls                                   Cathay                          US company Flexsys is to
                                            Cathay Pacific                  test fly its FlexFoil variable   Morphing flaps to
                                                                            geometry control surfaces
plug on                                     has ordered 21
                                                                            aboard a Gulfstream GIII         be tested
                                            Boeing 777-9X
Typhoon                                     aircraft. Deliveries
                                                                            in July. Trailing-edge flaps
                                                                            will be replaced with 14ft
deal                                        are scheduled                   FlexFoil surfaces together
                                            between 2021 to                 with 24in transition

                                                                                                                                                                        Flexsys
In December, BAE Systems                    2024.                           sections at each end.
reported that the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) will
not be proceeding any
                                            SPACEFLIGHT
further with a proposed                     Infographic: Gaia reaches L2 Lagrange point
£6bn deal to buy 60
Eurofighter Typhoons,
with the company saying:
“The UAE have advised
that they have elected
not to proceed with these
proposals at this time.”
Meanwhile, the company
reported that: “Whilst good
progress has been made,
a definitive agreement has
yet to be reached” over the
finalisation of the Salaam
deal to supply Typhoons to
Saudia Arabia.

                                                                                                                                                                         Airbus Defence and Space
                              Eurofighter

ON THE MOVE
Lockheed Martin elected                     Director of KLM UK              Muilenburg, while Shelley        Abubakar is to be its new
Marillyn Hewson as                          Engineering.                    Lavender will replace            Air Officer Commanding        The International Air
Chairman of the Board                                                       Chadwick as leader of            Training Command Kaduna       Transport Association
from 1 January.                             Dennis Muilenburg has           Boeing Military Aircraft.        while his predecessor Air     (IATA) has appointed Kevin
                                            been named as Boeing’s                                           Vice Marshal I Umar moves     Hiatt as Senior VP, Safety
ADS has announced that                      new Vice Chairman,              Etihad Airways has               to Defence Headquarters       and Flight Operations.
its new President for the                   President and CEO.              appointed Amina Tahe as          as Chief of Policy & Plans.
next two years will be                      Raymond Conner is               Head of Media Relations.                                       Walid Abukhaled is to
Marcus Bryson.                              promoted to Boeing Vice                                          Charles Paterson is the       become CE of Northrop
                                            Chairman, President and         Jeff Standerski has been         new Senior Vice President     Grumman's Saudi business.
Emirates president Tim                      CEO of Boeing Commercial        appointed Senior VP of           of Business Development
Clark has been awarded a                    Airplanes. Christopher          Rockwell Collins’ new            and Strategy for GKN          Raytheon CEO William H
knighthood in the UK New                    Chadwick is appointed           Information Management           Aerospace, replacing          Swanson is to step down.
Year Honours List.                          as Boeing Executive VP,         Services division.               Michael McCann who has        He will be succeeded by
                                            President, President and                                         become CEO of GKN             EVP and COO Dr Thomas
Arjan Meijer has been                       CEO, Boeing Defense,            The Nigerian Air Force has       Aerospace — Engine            A Kennedy, effective from
appointed Managing                          Space & Security, replacing     announced that AVM SB            Systems.                      March.

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LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
antenna:                                                                   Global Outlook and
                                                                                Analysis with
                                                                                HOWARD WHEELDON

                                 GoCo dead —
                                 long live DE&S+!
                                 T
                                              he potential creation of a GoCo —             employed, currently made up of 16,000 military and
                                              Government Owned, Contractor                  civil service posts, making the right decision on the
                                              Operated — organisation to run defence        future restructuring of the defence procurement
                                              procurement operation in the UK may           organisation would be crucial to its success. The
                                              now be off the agenda but that does not       process of required change had begun as long ago
                                 mean the idea of privatisation of the procurement          as October 2009 when the independent ‘Review of
                                 operation has been permanently ditched.                    Acquisition for the Secretary of State for Defence’
                                 Nevertheless, for now, defence procurement is to be        was conducted by Bernard Gray. His report was to
                                 retained in the public sector within what has been         be largely critical of how defence procurement was
                                 defined as a substantially upgraded and yet freed up       conducted and its principal recommendation was
                                 DE&S+ operation which, as announced by Secretary           that, in future procurement should be outsourced
                                 of State for Defence in December, will be given new        to a government-owned, contractor-operated
                                 powers from April allowing it to break away from           organisation. Hence, the idea of GoCo was born.
                                 current civil service pay restraints.                      Not surprisingly, the outsourcing recommendation
                                      Poor leadership, low morale and a lack of drive       met with stiff opposition from the Brown
                                 combined with the distinct lack of remuneration            Government. But, with a change of Government in
                                 incentive lie at the heart of why UK defence               April 2010 and publication six months later of the
                                 procurement is in a mess. There has been too little        SDSR, the possibility of creating a GoCo took a
                                 incentive to succeed and precious little in the way        giant step forward towards potential reality when
                                 of constructive leadership. There have also been           the Coalition signalled an intention to seriously
                                 a combination of other factors, including constant         consider this as a possibility within the overarching
                                 changes being made to already agreed programme             act of defence reform.
                                 requirements and differing sections of the military             While few disagreed that something was very
                                 being allowed to interfere on equipment programmes         badly wrong with how the system of defence
                                 forcing through expensive change without a proper          procurement operated, how to resolve the problem
                                 understanding of the consequences. Then, there are         and secure a more sound and efficient system that
                                 the politically based arguments on final numbers,          would provide best value for the taxpayer, give the
                                 cost, timing and use of available cash — all have          military with what they required on budget and on
                                 played a part in preventing the establishment of a         time while at the same time to work better for the
                                 clear cut and efficient system in procurement-based        MoD and industry would be fraught with difficulty.
                                 decision-making processes. To be fair, there has           Opinions differed and, while the Secretary for
                                 already been some improvement in performance of            Defence and the by now Chief of Defence Materiel,
                                 the existing Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S)          Bernard Gray were firmly behind the GoCo, the
                                 operation. Under Chief of Defence Materiel, Bernard        decision was made to test the wider views of
                                 Gray, operational management has significantly             industry together with those that might potentially
                                 improved. But, set against a background of forced          choose to compete for the contract to operate
                                 cuts in the number of staff employed combined with
                                 the unfortunate loss of highly skilled staff that have      AgustaWestland AW159 Wildcat
                                 chosen to leave DE&S due either to the constant             — but is it time for a shake-up in
                                 living in fear of losing their job or the very poor         UK defence procurement?
                                 levels of pay, many have jumped ship, seizing better
                                 opportunities offered in the private sector. No matter
                                 whether procurement was to be partially privatised
                                 or to remain inside the public sector, it was very clear
                                 that large scale change was needed.

                                 The right decisions
                                 With an annual budget of £14bn and responsibility
                                 for an already much reduced number of staff

10   AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2013
Chief of Defence
                                                                                                           Material, Bernard
                                                                                                           Gray

                                                                                                                                                                MoD
GoCo. Against this background it should be noted                                 Debate far from over
that all the way through, on the grounds of fear
of potentially increased risk, Whitehall support for                             With the House of Commons Defence Select
GoCo was very limited.                                                           Committee looking at not only why the notional
      Even if the GoCo idea had real merit as time                               idea of part privatising the operation of defence
moved on as the debate and potential concerns                                    procurement failed, why the various bidders               POOR
widened, it was, I suspect, the personalities involved                           walked away and, importantly, why the current             LEADERSHIP,
in the potential creation and running of a future                                Chief of Defence Material was given the job of
GoCo that gave rise to the largest area of concern.                              running the proposed DE&S+ operation without
                                                                                                                                           LOW MORALE,
The defence industry itself made plain that it would                             there being a competition, the debate on defence          LACK OF DRIVE
be happy to work with whatever system of                                               procurement is far from over. More sparks           COMBINED
procurement operation was decided                                                           may well fly in terms of the personalities     WITH THE
by the Defence Minister. In the end,                                                           involved and the pressure on the
left with only one potential bidder,                                                             Defence Secretary on the handling         DISTINCT
the increased complexities and                                                                     of procurement debate may well          LACK OF
perceived risk placed on those                                                                     intensify. The bottom line is that,     REMUNERATION
within the private sector that                                                                      from a would-be private sector
had led two other consortium                                                                        stance, the GoCo option failed
                                                                                                                                           INCENTIVE
partnerships to withdraw left                                                                       because those that might have          LIE AT THE
the Defence Secretary with                                                                         wished to sign up to operate it in      HEART OF WHY
little choice but to back away                                                                   partnership with the MoD had no           UK DEFENCE
from the GoCo option in favour of                                                               guarantee of being allowed to make
public sector retention of defence                                                          profit without realising further substantial
                                                                                                                                           PROCUREMENT
procurement in the form of an upgraded                MoD                               cuts in operational cost. That neither the         IS IN A MESS
DE&S+ structure that would be given much greater                                 Treasury nor the Cabinet Office had been keen
freedom of operation.                                                            on the GoCo option due to the fear of future risk
      Abandoning the GoCo option in favour of                                    and probably also that the proposed Trading Fund
moving forward with a public sector-based DE&S+                                  under which it would operate would not have
was to be a bitter blow for Defence Secretary Philip                             been a central body of Government should not be
Hammond just as it would also be for its principal                               ignored.
advocate, Bernard Gray. And it would be Gray that,                                    By the time the GoCo competition was killed
to the surprise of some, the Government asked to                                 off in favour of moving forward with a revised
run the upgraded DE&S+. While it is true that it had                             and rejuvenated public sector DE&S+ option, the
been Gray who had given birth to the GoCo option                                 process had cost the taxpayer £7·4m. Moving
for future defence procurement, given the need                                   forward the DE&S+ option will, according to Gray,
for stability through what will be a further process                             cost a further £17·3m to establish.
of change, I will no doubt be in the minority when                                    Three years since the procurement debate
I say that I believe Philip Hammond has made the                                 started, have we now moved on? DE&S may be
right decision. Gruff, unpopular perhaps, suffering                              weakened through the GoCo stealth process
fools badly and even causing unnecessary internal                                attempt but I do believe that, for now the right
friction as Gray is often accused, I believe that,                               decision has been made. In the knowledge that
given that he has one year of his contract left to run                           £4bn of programme risk provision is set in stone
and given his large scale experience in procurement                              and, as Hammond confirmed again in December,
operation, this remaining period should be used                                  that the procurement programme has at least been
wisely in the process of change and transition of                                stabilised, the new DE&S+ structure can start from
DE&S to DE&S+.                                                                   a reasonably clean slate.
                                                                                      Given the value of defence to the national
                                                                                 economy, the prospect of future cost overruns is
                                                                                 not in my view an excuse for the MoD to attempt
                                                                                 further risk reduction through policies of buying
                                                                                 off-the-shelf. That would be counterproductive but,
                                                                                 by learning to work closer and more efficiently with
                                                                                 industry and by improving internal and external
                                                                                 communication, DE&S+ should be able to play
                                                                                 a much larger part in the overall risk reduction
                                                                                 process. The emergence of trust and stability in the
                                                                AgustaWestland

                                                                                 relationship between government procurer, supplier
                                                                                 and those directly responsible for procurement
                                                                                 will be important in the final analysis as to whether
                                                                                 DE&S+ will be enduring or not.

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Transmission
     LETTERS AND ONLINE

                                                                                                      Wikipedia
                                                                                                                  answers. Relying on experts     carried in such aircraft (see
                                                                                                                  alone without oversight,        Cybersecurity in aviation,
                                                                                                                  simply isn’t enough. Recent     p26).
                                                                                                                  evidence for this assertion
                                                                                                                  include the banking crisis      Paul E. Team Lead, Data
                                                                                                                  of 2006 onwards and the         Centre at Arik Air You
                                                                                                                  Mid-Staffs NHS scandal.         have a valid point Johnny.
                                                                                                                                                  However, I believe that
                                                                                                                    John Blauth AMRAeS            as every new technology
                                                                                                                  Immediate Network Ltd           comes with its challenges,
                                                                                                                                                  system vulnerability to
                                                                                                                                                  hacks is one of the issues

                                                                                                                            i
                                                                                                                                                  that would most likely
                                                                                                                                                  lead to the deployment of
                                                                                                                                                  RPAS (remotely piloted air
                                                                                                                                                  systems) in fully unmanned
                                                                                                                                                  civil roles (i.e. cargo,
     Glider on tow.                                                                                                                               agricultural operations)
                                                                                                                                                  first. It may take quite a
                                                                                                                                                  while before we see RPAS
     Glider upset training          Maintaining this reflex          Rupert Murdoch, British spy                                                  deployed in the commercial
     While reading the              and using the rudder on a        chiefs or any number of fat                  Johnny S. Independent           passenger transport sector.
     December issue of              commercial aircraft can be       cats — bosses of energy                      airlines aviation               In the initial stages of RPAS
     AEROSPACE, I stumbled          detrimental and may even         firms, failed banks, the BBC                 professional [on                deployment in the open
     upon an article entitled       worsen the situation in the      — they have provided many                    implications of US moves        airspace, as you clearly
     The right attitude(1) which    case of an upset situation       of the big political moments                 to introduce RPAS into          point out, control system
     summarises the different       (ironically, the article later   in this Parliament.’                        to penetrate right into the     lapse) time, RPAS hacks
     to read about easyJet          such approach is endorsed        The AAIB, the CAA and                        Pentagon’s secret files.        would be mitigated to a point
     Captain Sarah Kelman           in the ‘safety’ tab of your      their colleagues at the                      Sooner or later a similar       beyond which they would
     explaining how gliders         magazine. I would like to        DfT are all experts in their                 breakthrough by terrorist       be a much less significant
     are capable of teaching        suggest that this approach       field who do vital work on                   hackers could make it           threat when we eventually
     stalls, spin and upset         be revised to avoid              behalf of all UK citizens.                   possible for them to ‘hijack’   have remotely piloted
     situations. I would have       possible negative training       It is because of this last                   a civil remotely controlled     manned aircraft systems
     liked to have been present     on such a delicate subject.      point that what they do                      aircraft and use it for their   in the open airspace. Of
     at the full presentation in                                     should be overseen by                        own nefarious means. The        course, this is not saying
     the hope that my doubts                 Peimann Tofighi         knowledgeable, though not                    safeguards will make this       that the aerospace design
     are reassured as, in my                                         expert, politicians who are                  impossible? Try telling that    community will not have
     point of view, this approach   Role of Parliamentary            responsible for ensuring                     to the military and civilian    to do anything about
     is totally against safety.     Transport Committee              that the interests of citizens               people who have to counter      this potential barrier.
     Although I can understand      The answer to the question       are taken into account.                      hacker attacks (like bank       Due recognition must be
     that gliders can teach a lot   posed by Michael Benoy           The Transport Committee’s                    frauds) in the present time.    given to this threat in the
     about basic aerodynamics,      in AEROSPACE, Letters,           role is to ask questions                     A self-destruct system          current design of RPAS
     they can certainly not be      December 2013(2)                 that might appear simple,                    on board may help but           systems for civil operations
     taken as references for        (What value does the             irrelevant or daft but these                 it will not apply if, in the    and adequate mitigating
     commercial aviation when       Parliamentary Transport          can deliver important                        future, passengers are          measures must be taken.
     it comes to upset training.    Committee add to the
     Flying a glider requires       AAIB and CAA?) is simple:
                                                                                                                                                                                  Microdrones GmBH

     certain reactions that are     independent oversight.
     prohibited when flying         It is a recent habit to mock
     a commercial aircraft,         politicians and to sneer at
     especially during an upset     the political process but
     recovery. When flying          that is to ignore the useful
     a glider, the yaw effect       and often valuable work
     necessitates a strong          carried out by Parliament’s
     activity on the rudder;        select committees.
     this is true in normal and     As the Economist wrote in
     abnormal situations.           November: ‘Whether grilling      md4-100 quadrotor UAV.

12   AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
NVIDIA
                                                                           Geoffrey W.                             @RAFScopie [On Space                    @4tis [On a Belgian
                                                                           Chartered senior aircraft               Debris the legal issues](5)             school using a quad-
                                                                           structural design                       The Cosmos collision the                copter UAV to monitor
                                                                           and development                         article mentions was 1st                students taking exams] I’m
                                                                           engineering professional.               reported & catalogued                   guessing it’s a hoax. It’s
                                                                           There is a lot of research              by non other than moi                   noisy, disruptive (blow-
                                                                           potential not only in                   (& my team that night.)                 ing papers), could injure
                                                                           aerodynamics and future                                                         someone & only ~15 mins
                                                                           configurations but also                                                         flying time. PR stunt?
                                                                           in lightweight airframe
                                                                           structures (advanced
                                                                           stitched composites), new               @sUASNews [On who
                                                                           manufacturing methods,                  is winning race to unlock
                                                                           incorporating into existing             skies for UAVs](3) Europe               @Aspavold [On Hawk jet
                                                                           basic configurations. The               already did. At last count              trainer turning 40 this year]
                                                                           issue as always is funding.             there where 1,164                       great product, proud to
                                                                                                                   certificated operators.                 have worked on them for
                                                                                                                   Japan has over 14,000.                  17 years of my career

                                                                                                                   @MarcusUAV Good                         @P_H_Images It’s fair
                                                                                                                   to hear the commercial                  to say that comparing
                                                                                                                   market is finally taking                the [Hawk] T2 to the
                                                                                                                   shape there....                         T1 is like comparing
                                                                           @LossComm [On USAF                                                              a British Leyland Mini
                                                                           PaveHawk crash] What’s                                                          to the current version!
                                                                           the protocol for a foreign
                                                                           mil a/c crash on UK soil?
                                                                           Do @aaibgovuk lead, MoD
                                                                           or foreign mil?                         T2 Hawk trainers from RAF Valley.
Graphic representation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
from computer graphics company NVIDIA.

                                                                                                                                                                                               BAE Systems
R&D — the need for
supercomputers
Charles G. CFD,                    software with the most
Fluid Dynamics and                 efficient numerical solvers
Engineering Software               for massively parallel
Tool Developer and                 supercomputers is also
Analyst [on What do                needed. I believe that the
you think is in store for          transonic tunnel from
the renaissance of UK              DERA Bedford went to
Aerospace?](4) I think also        ARA. There was also a
having more powerful               new low-speed tunnel at
HPCs (supercomputers)              Farnborough? The UK
are needed compared to             also contributed I believe
what is in the USA, China          a third of the money
and Europe. Since most             towards the cryogenic
engineering products are           tunnel at Koln which can                1. The right attitude, AEROSPACE, December 2013, p 22.
designed virtually and the         reproduce true Reynolds                 2. Transmission, AEROSPACE, December 2013, p 12.
                                                                           3. http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight/2014/01/10/the-us-moves-closer-to-rpas-operation-in-controlled-
physics is modelled virtually      number flows. The wind-                    airspace/8977/
having the most powerful           tunnels complement                      4. http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight/2013/12/06/the-uk-aerospace-renaissance/8881/
HPCs is an advantage               and validate the CFD                    5. Space debris: The legal issues, AEROSPACE, January 2014, p 14.

for modelling coupled              developments. But it is only
aerodynamic/structure/             with updated tools can
acoustics/combustion/
thermal to make the
                                   further developments in
                                   aerodynamics, propulsion,
                                                                                                  Online
                                                                                                  Additional features and content are available to view
most efficient designs.            systems and design be
Developing the necessary           made.                                                          online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight

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Asia-Pacific airlines
         Low-cost carriers

     46
                                 T
                                              en years ago, low-cost carriers (LCCs)        as it does not include aircraft ordered for LCCs
                                              were the minor players in the Asia-           which are owned by larger airlines which often utilise
                                              Pacific region, representing only around      aircraft ordered by their parent company.
     Asia-Pacific LCCs
                                              2% of total capacity. However, the
                                              market has since experienced a radical        Owners and operators

     1,000
                                 reversal with budget airlines now accounting for
                                 over 50% of intra-regional capacity in Southeast           While many Asia-Pacific LCCs are privately owned,
                                 Asia and 10% in North Asia.                                others are operated as subsidiaries of larger
     Total LCC aircraft
                                     In the past two years, the expansion of                LCCs (see table on next page). The largest group
                                 LCCs has been continuing to accelerate at an               operator is AirAsia whose LCC-owned or controlled

     1,500
                                 unprecedented rate with more and more new                  airlines accounts for a total fleet of 172 aircraft,
                                 carriers joining the market each year — six in 2012,       plus a further 388 on order. AirAsia’s LCC affiliates
                                 five in 2013 and a further 11 planned in 2014.             include Thai AirAsia, Indonesia AirAsia (a 49/51%
     LCC aircraft on order
                                     According to statistics published by CAPA Centre       joint venture between AirAsia and local interests),
                                 for Aviation, there are currently 46 airlines classified   Philippines’ AirAsia and AirAsia X — the latter

     50%
                                 as low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region,           specialising in long-haul routes based on low-cost
                                 operating close to 1,000 aircraft, equivalent to 15%       airports. The second largest group is Lion which also
                                 of the estimated total 6,800 in-service commercial         operates Jakarta-based regional operator Wings Air.
     LCC share of total
                                 aircraft fleet in the region (see table on p15). This      Lion is also unique among LCCs in operating a full-
     capacity in SE Asia
                                 figure will continue to rise, with an additional 1,500     service subsidiary, Batik.
                                 new LCC aircraft on order, equivalent to 50% of total            The third largest LCC operator is the Jetstar
                                 new orders. The total may actually be even larger,         group with 116 aircraft, while another leading

     Low-cost high
     hopes
     Recent years have seen a huge expansion in low-cost
     airline operations in the Asia-Pacific region. But can this
     growth rate be sustained? BILL READ reports.

                                                                                                                         Tigerair and its affiliate airlines
                                                                                                                         now have a fleet of 50 Airbus
                                                                                                                         A320s.

14   AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
low-cost carrier is Cebu Pacific Air with 48
         A319/320/330 and ATR72-500s operating
         domestic and international services within Asia.
              To counter the threat of competition from LCCs,
         a number of mainstream carriers have created
         their own budget airlines. Australian flag carrier
         Qantas operates long-haul LCC Jetstar which, in
         turn, operates a number of regional joint venture

                                                                                                                                                                   ATR
         carriers — Jetstar Asia in Singapore, Jetstar Pacific
         in Vietnam, Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Hong Kong.
         Air India operates a low cost subsidiary Air India                 Asia-Pacific low-cost carriers by country
         Express based in Mumbai which flies to both
         destinations within India as well as to Asia and                   Country               LCCs (no. of aircraft*) + new LCCs for 2014
         the Middle East. Thai Airlines has a 39% share in                  AUSTRALIA   Jetstar Airways (74), Tigerair Australia (12)
         Bangkok-based LCC Nok Air which has domestic                       CHINA       Hong Kong Express (4), Lucky Air (17), Spring Airlines (39),
         flights within Thailand using a fleet of Boeing                                West Air (13) + China United, Jetstar Hong Kong, Jiu Yuan
         737-800s together with ATR and Saab regional                                   China, China United Airlines
         turboprops. Asiana Airlines operates a subsidiary                  INDIA       Air India Express (21), GoAir (17), IndiGo (73), JetLite (13),
         called Air Busan while Korean Air has a low-cost                               SpiceJet (56) + AirAsia India
         carrier based in Seoul called Jin Air.                             INDONESIA   Citilink (24), Indonesia AirAsia (30), Lion Air (94), Lion Air
              Some LCCs are jointly owned by a number of                                Indonesia, Tigerair Mandala (9), Wings Air (27)
         companies. Singapore-based Tigerair (formally                      JAPAN       Air Do (13), Jetstar Japan (18), Peach (11), Skymark
         Tiger Airways) is owned by Tiger Airways Holdings;                             Airlines (33), Solaseed (12), Star Flyer (11), Vanilla Air (2)
         a consortium comprising Singapore Airlines, Indigo                             + Spring Japan
         Partners Singapore and RyanAsia. Jetstar Japan                     MALAYSIA    AirAsia (74), AirAsia X (19), Malindo Air (10)
         is a joint venture between Qantas Airways, Japan                   MYANMAR     Golden Myanmar Airlines (2)
         Airlines and Mitsubishi and sources its aircraft from              PHILIPPINES Cebu Pacific Air (48), Philippines AirAsia (2), Tigerair
         Qantas. Japanese low-cost carrier Peach is a joint                             Philippines (5), Zest Air (13)
         venture between All Nippon Airways, Innovation                     SINGAPORE   Scoot (6), Tigerair (25)
         Network Corporation of Japan and First Eastern                     SOUTH KOREA Air Busan (11), Eastar Jet (9), Jeju Air (13), Jin Air (10),
         Investment Group. Sri Lanka’s only LCC, Mihin                                  T’way (6)
         Lanka, is owned by the Sri Lankan government.                      SRI LANKA   Mihin Lanka (3)
                                                                            TAIWAN -    + Tigerair Taiwan
                                                                            THAILAND    Nok Air (21), Orient Thai Airlines (22), Thai AirAsia (35),
         Expansion plans                                                                Thai Lion Air (2) + NokScoot, Thai AirAsia X, Thai VietJet
                                                                            VIETNAM     Jetstar Asia (19), Jetstar Pacific (5), VietJet Air (10)
         All the LCCs have ambitions to expand and many
         have already invested in new aircraft. Lion Air                    *Based on CAPA statistics for end 2013
         recently took delivery of its 100th 737 and is asking
         Boeing to increase its rate of future deliveries. The
         carrier is also reported to be considering placing                 Airlines, followed by a new Thai affiliate, Thai Lion Air,   Asia-Pacific
         an order for 50 or more Bombardier CSeries 300                     which began flying in December using a fleet of two          LCCs’ aircraft
         regional jets in early 2014. At the 2012 Singapore                 737-900ERs. In some cases, new budget carriers               orderbook
         Air Show, Lion Air’s regional subsidiary Wings Air                 are being created by re-launching full-service model
         signed a contract for the purchase of 27 additional
         ATR 72-600 aircraft. Once these have been added
         to its fleet at the end of 2015, Wings will become
                                                                            airlines. Hong Kong Express is one such example
                                                                            while Vanilla was formerly AirAsia Japan.
                                                                                 In 2014, up to 11 new LCCs may begin flying in
                                                                                                                                         576
                                                                                                                                         Lion group
         the largest operator of ATR aircraft in the world, with            the Asia-Pacific region (see table above). In March
         a total fleet of 60 aircraft (20 ATR 72-500s and 40
         ATR 72-600s). Meanwhile, South Korean budget
                                                                            this year, Lion Air plans to launch a new Indonesia
                                                                            LCC under the name of Batik Airlines. Meanwhile,
                                                                                                                                         388
                                                                                                                                         AirAsia group
         carrier Jeju Air has announced plans to increase its               AirAsia has taken over control of Batavia Airways
         current 13-strong 737-800 fleet by an additional                   and is seeking approval from the Indian Directorate
         six or seven aircraft during 2014, as well as raising
         annual sales by 23% from won 340bn to won
                                                                            General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to set up AirAsia
                                                                            India, a new low-cost airline to be jointly owned with
                                                                                                                                         125
                                                                                                                                         Jetstar group
         530bn. SAI-owned Scoot also plans to increase its                  two Indian investors. Thai carrier Nok Air is planning
         fleet of six 777-200s to 14 aircraft by 2016 while
         Thai LCC Nok Air is planning to almost double its
                                                                            to begin competing with Air Asia X in the medium/
                                                                            long-haul sector with the launch of NokScoot                 70
                                                                                                                                         VietJet
         fleet to 30 aircraft by the end of 2015.                           — a new LCC carrier set up in conjunction with
              New LCCs are continuing to take-off. In March                 Singapore Airlines’ subsidiary Scoot and due to
                                                                                                                                         18
Airbus

         2013, Lion Air began operating a new 49% owned                     begin flying in the second quarter of 2014 using
         Malaysian low-cost budget airline called Malindo                   two SIA 777-200s.                                            Tigerair group

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Asia-Pacific airlines
         Low-cost carriers

          While countries in Northern Asia have been
     slower to adopt the LCC concept than their
     southern neighbours, the situation is beginning to
     change. In Taiwan, which currently only has 4-5%
     LCC market share, China Airways announced plans
     to launch Tigerair Taiwan in 2014, a new LCC joint-
     venture with Tigerair. Meanwhile, Vietnamese LCC
     VietJet, which competes with state-owned Vietnam
     Airlines Corp and Jetstar Pacific, has declared its
     aim to double its domestic market share to 50% in
     three years.
          The low-cost model has also reached mainland

                                                                                                                                                           ATR
     China. Shanghai-based Spring Airlines, founded in
     2005, claims to be China’s first and only low-cost
                                                                   Asia-Pacific low-cost affiliates
     airline — although Hong Kong Express, Lucky and
                                                                   Owners                          Affiliates
     West Air are also operating under the low-cost
     model with another four to join them in 2014.                 AIR ASIA                        Thai AirAsia, Indonesia AirAsia, Zest Air,
                                                                                                   Philippines AirAsia, AirAsia X,
     Spring Airlines, which recently took delivery of its
                                                                                                   AirAsia India (2014), Thai AirAsia X (2014)
     39th aircraft, is planning to expand with the launch          AIR INDIA                       Air India Express
     of Spring Airlines Japan in May 2014. In early                ANA                             Peach, Vanilla Air
     January, China Eastern Airlines announced plans to            ASIANA AIRLINES                 Air Busan
     convert its China United Airlines subsidiary into a           CHINA AIRLINES/TIGERAIR         Tigerair Taiwan (2014)
     low-cost carrier.                                             CHINA EASTERN                   China United (2014)
                                                                   CHINA EASTERN/JETSTAR           Jetstar Hong Kong (2014)
                                                                   GARUDA                          Citilink
     If you can’t beat them                                        HAINAN AIRLINES                 Lucky Air, West Air
                                                                   HONG KONG AIRLINES              Hong Kong Express
     Instead of competing with each other, some Asia-              JET AIRWAYS                     JetLite
     Pacific LCCs have decided to work together instead.           JETSTAR                         Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Japan, Jetstar Pacific, Valuair
     Malindo Air recently signed an interline agreement            KAM AIR/VIETJET                 Thai VietJet (2014)
     with Thai Lion Air which would allow passengers               KOREAN AIR                      Jin Air
     to book a single combined e-ticket for flights                LION                            Wings Air, Malindo Air, Thai Lion Air
                                                                   SINGAPORE AIRLINES              Scoot
     operated by both airlines. Qantas controlled Jetstar
                                                                   SCOOT/NOK                       NokScoot (2014)
     Asia is considering joining the Qantas-Emirates               SPRING AIRLINES                 Spring Japan (2014)
     airline alliance. In December Tigerair and SpiceJet           SRILANKAN AIRLINES              Mihin Lanka
     signed a three-year interline agreement to enable             TIGERAIR                        Tigerair Australia, Tigerair Mandala, Tigerair
     greater connectivity between            flights                                               Philippines (to be sold to Cebu Pacific)
     operated by both carriers.                 Tigerair,          VIETJET AIR                     VietJet
     which has an existing                       interline
     agreement with Singapore-                    based
     Scoot, also announced                        that
     the two carriers are to                      form a

                                                                  it was announced that
                                              partnership         Tigerair was to sell
                                           to further align       its 40% stake in
                                     their commercial             Tigerair Philippines
                                     activities. In January       to Cebu Pacific, as
                                                                  part of a strategic
                                                                  alliance being set
                                                                  up between the two
                                    Lion Air Malaysian and        carriers.
                                    Thai affiliates Malindo Air
                                                                       In some cases, too
                                    and Thai Lion Air operate
                                    an interline agreement to     much co-operation can
                                    market joint e-tickets. ATR   get airlines into trouble. In
                                                                  September, the Malaysian
                                                                  Competition Commission
                                                                  (MyCC) fined its national carrier
                                                                  MAS and AirAsia RM10m each for
                                                                  monopolising four routes during an eight-
                                                                  month pact.

xx   AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
Safety concerns                                               other two aircraft to follow in 2015.
                                                                                                        Although the Indian market has often been
                                     The growth in low-cost operations has not been                reported as showing huge potential for LCCs, fierce
                                     without its problems. In April 2013, a newly                  competition and a lack of sufficient demand have
                                     purchased Lion Air 737-800 crashed into the sea               made business difficult for carriers operating in the
                                     after landing short of the runway at Bali Airport.            region. In 2013 IndiGo and GoAir were reported as
IF PROOF WERE                        Despite the aircraft breaking into two, all 101               being the only Indian carriers to report a profit in the
NEEDED OF                            passengers and seven crew were safely evacuated,              previous financial year while, in September, Indian
THE GROWING                          although four passengers were treated for serious             LCC SpiceJet announced a quarterly loss of Rs
IMPORTANCE                           injuries. A preliminary report from Indonesia’s               559·49 crore.
                                     National Transportation Safety Committee called                    Airports are also beginning to reach capacity.
OF THE ASIA-                         on the airline to tighten up pilot training and safety        Airports of Thailand (AOT) is trying to free up
PACIFIC                              procedures. The airline was again in the headlines            more space at Suvarnabhumi Bangkok Airport by
MARKET, THEN                         after passengers staged public protests after                 offering reduced landing fees to airlines that move
IT CAN BEEN                          experiencing a series of delays and cancellations             their operations to Don Muang 45km away. Not
                                     on its flights due to industrial and organisational           all carriers are keen to make the move, as they
FOUND IN THE                         problems. In October, Lion Air was the subject of a           face losing connections with other flights. Phuket
EXPANSION                            two-week evaluation by the Indonesian Ministry of             Airport in Thailand is also running well over capacity,
OF ITS LOW-                          Transportation.                                               although a $180m airport upgrade is due to be
                                          There have also been safety concerns with other          completed in 2015.
COST AIR                             airlines. In August the Civil Aviation Authority of the            There is also the threat of regional politics
TRANSPORT                            Philippines (CAAP) grounded Air Asia budget carrier           adversely effecting demand. Recent political
SECTOR                               affiliate Zest Air due to a series of safety breaches,        conflicts in Thailand have reduced the country’s
                                     including refuelling with passengers onboard. A               tourist demand with a knock-on effect on airlines.
                                     number of other Asian carriers are also raising safety        Thai AirAsia recently reported that its cabin loadings
                                     concerns, as shown by the list of airlines currently          in November fell by 5% to 82% with the biggest
                                     banned from flying within the European Union                  decline in demand being from China.
                                     which includes Lion Air, Citilink Indonesia, Air Asia              China’s own politics may also have an adverse
                                     Philippines, Cebu Pacific and Zest Airways.                   effect on the Asia-Pacific airlines. Beijing has
                                                                                                   recently set up a new air defence zone over the
                                     Future challenges                                             East China Sea and is demanding that all foreign
                                                                                                   aircraft passing through the zone should identify
Three new Boeing 737s                Although at present the future looks rosy for the             themselves to Chinese authorities. While this edict
being prepared for delivery
                                     Asia-Pacific low-cost airline segment, it might be            has largely been ignored by US, Japanese and
at Seattle in June to Lion Air.
Lion Air now has a fleet of          wise to add a few words of caution. The present               South Korean military aircraft, Korean Airlines and
over 100 737s. Boeing                buoyant economic conditions may not last forever              Asiana Airlines have both begun filing flight plans
                                     and there is the risk that there may not be sufficient        while the US government has advised US carriers
                                     demand in the future for all the new aircraft                 United, American and Delta also to comply, adding
                                     capacity currently on order. The Asia-Pacific region          that the decision did “not indicate US government
                                     has suffered from economic downturns before.                  acceptance of China’s requirements.” Japan,
                                         Eleven years ago saw demand for air travel in             however, has not complied and civil aircraft operated
                                             the region plummet due to the outbreak of             by ANA and Japan Airlines have continued to fly
                                                SARS with flights to and from China down           through the zone without informing China. Military
                                                   by 45% at one point.                            tensions in the area remain high and there are
                                                          Even if demand does hold up, too         concerns that civil air travel could be adversely
                                                       much growth can sometimes bring             affected should the situation escalate (see Pacific
                                                       problems of its own — including             Storm, p 18).
                                                        pilot shortages, airport and air traffic
                                                        congestion and pollution.                  Low-cost future
                                                             Not all LCCs are finding the
                                                       going easy. Garuda Indonesia                If proof were needed of the growing importance of
                                                      affiliate Citilink had a tough year in       the Asia-Pacific market, then it can been found in
                                                    2013 due to the fall of over 20% in            the expansion of its low-cost air transport sector. By
                                                 the Indonesian rupiah against the US              how much this sector will grow and whether it will
                                               dollar. The airline had announced plans for         be sustainable is difficult to predict at the moment,
                                           rapid expansion in 2014 with new routes to              as the low-cost revolution is still underway. But the
                                       Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Perth but scaled                present prospects look good. In the words of Tony
                                     back its investment plans when it announced in                Fernandes, CEO of Air Asia X: “There are three
                                     December that it was reducing an order for ten                billion people in Asia. As long as we keep fares low,
                                     Airbus A320s due in 2014 down to eight, with the              people will fly.”

     @aerosociety      i   linkedin.com/raes   f   facebook.com/raes    www.aerosociety.com                                                 FEBRUARY 2014     17
DEFENCE
                       Asia-Pacific defence procurement

                   PacificStorm
                   The US pivot to Asia-Pacific and China’s accelerating
                   military capabilities are amid growing tensions in
                   the region. TIM ROBINSON assesses air power
                   and defence in Asia Pacific.

                                                                                                      is emerging as not only an economic superpower
                                                                                                      — but a military one at that. Its ‘great leap’ forward
                                                                                                      in terms of naval expeditory power, precision
                                                                                                      weapons, UAVs and stealth aircraft, along with its
                                                                                                      new assertiveness such as unilaterally declaring an
                                                                                                      air defence zone over disputed islands — has thus
                                                                                                      increased tensions amongst its regional neighbours.

                                               A
                                                                                                           Despite the US's public ‘pivot to Asia’ there
                   Lockheed Martin                          growing military power, intent on         too is also an unspoken concern by allies in
                                                            flexing its newly found muscles and       the region that a war-weary, isolationist and
                   is to support                            proving its status, runs up against the   budgetary constrained US — now simply cannot be
                   repair of Japan's                        established order. Nationalism and        everywhere in the Pacific where it might be needed.
 Lockheed Martin

                   F-2 fighters                             bellicose posturing runs riot. It is no   The resullt has seen growth in military spending
                                               wonder that in the recent months, parallels have       and procurement in Asia-Pacific with a 5% increase
                   damaged in the
                                               been found between 1914 and an inexorable drift        year-on-year fleet size. Let’s take a look at some
                   2011 tsunami.               to war, and 2014, where a new, confident China         selected military aviation developments.

18                 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
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