LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE - Royal Aeronautical Society
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www.aerosociety.com LOW-COST, HIGH HOPES THE BUDGET AIRLINE REVOLUTION IN ASIA-PACIFIC February 2014 LIFT-OFF FOR UK SPACE CYBERSECURITY AND AVIATION IRANIAN GA AIRCRAFT
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ATR Volume 41 Number 2 Textron AirLand February 2014 Low-cost high hopes Flight of the Scorpion The growth of the Asia- Textron AirLand launches 14 Pacific low-cost air transport market. 30 new low-cost jet strike aircraft. Contents Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK publications@aerosociety.com Comment Regulars 4 Radome 12 Transmission The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets aeronautical intelligence, and feedback. analysis and comment. Iran: winners and losers 10 Antenna Howard Wheeldon looks 58 The Last Word Keith Hayward on the new space race in Asia. at the future of defence BAE Systems procurement privatisation The current international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions raise the possibility that Tehran’s leadership may be seeking to give up Features USMC Dorna Aircraft its plans for nuclear weapons — in return for relief from crippling sanctions. It is obviously very early days yet and, given Iran’s history, there is much to be said for Ronald Reagan’s famous maxim ‘trust but verify’ — but the change in attitude has been refreshing. Moreover, any breakthrough agreement will have significant implications for the aerospace industry. Should sanctions be lifted, even slightly, this may open up a previously closed or highly restricted market for Western products, skills and services. It may even, 18 32 as seen on page 32, go in the opposite direction with aerospace talent Persian Eagle from Iran now able to market their products and skills to the world. Pacific storm Profile of Iranian GA Yet there also may be a downside for some companies. Military Asia-Pacific defence manufacturer Dorna Aircraft. procurement in the Gulf, for example, has been mainly driven by fears round-up. of the Iranian threat. Only recently, it has to be remembered, that talk of NASA Reaction Engines a joint Israel/US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities (and the potential for wider war in the Gulf) was presented as a ‘when, not if’ choice. So was it, therefore, coincidence that the UAE decided against acquiring Eurofighter Typhoon late last year, despite high-level lobbying? Or was it a merely a pragmatic move by the UAE that with conciliatory noises emanating from Tehran, there was now no need to be rushed into a decision over an expensive combat aircraft? With a global buyer’s market for fighter aircraft, the UAE can afford to wait and should 34 peace talks with Iran break down — it can be sure that re-opening the 22 Lift-off for UK space contest will have defence companies falling over themselves to offer A 20-year vision for the UK better deals. It’s hip to be square space industry. The CubeSat revolution. As ever — there are both winners and losers. Tim Robinson 39 Careers in Aerospace NEWS IN BRIEF 26 Cybersecurity and aviation LIVE Report on the 2013 RAeS tim.robinson@aerosociety.com Tackling the hacker threat. careers fair. Editor-in-Chief AEROSPACE is published by the Royal 41 Afterburner AEROSPACE subscription rates: Tim Robinson Aeronautical Society (RAeS). 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Additional features and content +44 (0)20 7670 4354 offices. 51 Honours, Medals wayne.davis@aerosociety.com Printed by Buxton Press Limited, are available to view online on Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire Postmaster: Send address changes & Awards www.media.aerosociety.com/ Editorial Office to IMS of New York, PO Box 1518, Royal Aeronautical Society SK17 6AE, UK aerospace-insight Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA. 52 Diary Including: Aircraft noise reduction initiatives, No.4 Hamilton Place London W1J 7BQ, UK Distributed by Royal Mail 54 Corporate Partners Airport capacity in SE England, +44 (0)20 7670 4300 ISSN 2052-451X Space debris — the legal issues, publications@aerosociety.com 55 Obituary US moves closer to RPAS operation www.aerosociety.com Front cover: Sharklets fitted to an AirAsia A320. Airbus 56 RAeS Elections in controlled airspace @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 13
Radome INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT Self-defence The Gripen NG features a comprehensive EW self-defence system. Elisra will provide a passive IR missile warning system, while the fighter will be one of the first to offer the Selex BriteCloud Expendable Active Decoy Extra range Relocating the as part of its defence suite. undercarriage position allows a 40% increase in fuel capacity, giving a combat radius of 700nm and ferry range of 2,200nm. A retractable IFR probe is now fitted. NEWS IN BRIEF ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?????? More power The Gripen NG replaces the Volvo RM12/ ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? F404 used on the C/D with GE’s F414G ????? ????? engine — as used on the F/A-18 Super Hornet — giving the Gripen NG 20% more thrust and allowing supercruise. Saab 4 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
Sensor fusion The Gripen NG features a partioned avionics architecture — separating flight safety and mission functions — allowing from rapid updates. One such upgrade could be AESA radar replacing the three colour cockpit MFDs The Gripen NG features the Selex Galileo ES with a single giant touchscreen display. 05 Raven active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, with a moving swash plate that allows scan angles up to 100°. IRST Sensors also include the Selex Skyward-G passive infrared search and track system (IRST). More weapons Relocated landing gear now allows ten external hardpoints for carrying weapons, external fuel tanks, surveillance and targeting pods. For Brazil, integrated air-to- air missiles may include Derby, A-Darter and Meteor. DEFENCE Lightweight champ lands knock-out blow in Brazil Brazil has selected the Saab Gripen NG to become its air force’s new fighter aircraft, beating off competition from the Dassault Rafale and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The $4·5bn F-X2 contract will see 36 Gripens replace ageing Dassault Mirage 2000C fighters and Northrop F-5EMs. The contract is expected to be signed in 10-12 months with first deliveries to follow 48 months later, although older Gripen C/Ds from the Swedish Air Force may be supplied first until the new aircraft are ready. @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 5
Radome AEROSPACE DEFENCE FanWing wins France approves Rafale EU research F3 R upgrade project The French Defence BVRAAM missile, a Thales Ministry has given PDL-NG laser designation the go-ahead for pod and the latest laser Dassault to develop homing version of the the fourth tranche of Sagem AASM Hammer FanWing/Adrian Mann Rafale fighters to F3 R air-to-ground modular standard. weapon, already trialed in The upgraded version Mali. Validation of these will include integration new weapons is expected with the MBDA Meteor by 2018. Innovative rotating wing propulsion aircraft developer FanWing has received a joint EU award for a two-year research and development project. Led by the DLR German Bombardier’s $2bn Aerospace and Space Research Centre, the SOAR (diStributed Open-rotor AiRcraft) biz-jet order project is being conducted by FanWing in conjunction with the University of Saarland and Bombardier has completed a $2·2bn the von Karman Institute. Work will include wind-tunnel testing and CFD data and analysis order for 38 business jets from an documentation with the aim of optimising rotor blades and wingshape. Experimental data unidentified customer. The order is for 28 collected during the programme will be used to design a full-size open fan wing aircraft Global and ten Challenger 605 biz-jets. design suitable for carrying 60-70 passengers or up to eight tons of freight. SPACEFLIGHT AIR TRANSPORT Third powered flight for Aeroflot unveils Red Devil Virgin Galactic Virgin Galactic’s an altitude of 46,000ft SpaceShipTwo made its and Mach 1·4 above the third rocket-powered test Mojave Desert. The flight flight on 10 January. The also tested new reflective Russian flag carrier Aeroflot has unveiled one of two new Airbus A321s which will Aeroflot ten-minute flight saw thermal protection for the feature the red, white and blue livery of the Manchester United football team. The the spaceplane reach tail booms. football club signed a five-year partnership with Aeroflot in July 2013. NEWS IN BRIEF been in hibernation mode Medina on 5 January after Brazilian aircraft India has cancelled a since June 2011. On 4 January Airbus rolled its right landing gear failed manufacturer Embraer has $770m order for 12 out its fourth A350 flight to deploy. announced that it met its AW101 helicopters from Remanufactured bizjet test aircraft. The first A350 planned delivery targets for AgustaWestland following specialist Nextant to be fitted with a fully The first Reaper UAVs to 2013. During the year, the allegations of malpractice Aerospace has announced equipped cabin interior, be operated by the French company delivered a total in the purchase process. that it is to fly its first re- MSN2 features a special Air Force have been of 90 commercial aircraft (see Pacific Storm p 18) engined and modernised ‘all carbon’ black and white deployed to the Sahel and 119 business jets. King Air G90XT in the chequered livery. region of Africa in support Scientists at ESA have first quarter of this year. of the on-going French Malaysian carrier AirAsiaX reactivated the Rosetta The G90XT replaces the A total of 29 people campaign in Mali. has ordered 25 Airbus space probe prior to its original G90 aircraft’s Pratt are reported to have A330-300s plus ten planned rendezvous with & Whitney Canada PT6 been injured during the SpaceX has launched the options. The airline is Comet 67P/Churyumov- engines with GE H80s, evacuation of a Saudi Asian communications planning to use the aircraft Gerasimenko in November together with a Garmin Airlines Boeing 767- satellite Thaicom 6 into for low-cost long-haul 2014. Launched in March G1000 flightdeck and new 300ER after it made an geosynchronous transfer operations. 2004, the spacecraft has interiors. emergency landing in orbit (GTO) aboard a 6 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
SPACEFLIGHT AIR TRANSPORT AEROSPACE Cygnus delivers Airports Commission Airbus, supplies to ISS tips Heathrow/Gatwick Boeing expansion 2013 The Airports Commission, options suggested by the results led by Sir Howard Davies, report is the building of a has published its interim third 3,500m runway at report on the future Heathrow, lengthening expansion of UK airports, an existing Heathrow saying that one additional runway to 6,000m and a runway is needed by 2030. new 3,000m runway at Airbus Among the short-listed Gatwick. Private US space delivered supplies to DEFENCE Airbus has company Orbital the ISS, arriving on 12 reported that it Sciences Corporation launched its Cygnus January. The launch was originally scheduled Pave Hawk crash in outsold Boeing in cargo spacecraft aboard for 8 January but was UK kills four 2013 with a record an Antares rocket from postponed due to total of 1,503 net the NASA Wallops Flight unusually high levels of A US Air Force HH-60G RAF Lakenheath when it orders compared Facility in Virginia on 9 space radiation which Pave Hawk helicopter came down on a nature to Boeing’s total of January. exceeded the spacecraft’s crashed in East Anglia on reserve near Cley next the 1,355. Airbus also NASA The unmanned spacecraft design constraints. 7 January killing all four Sea in Norfolk. The cause trumped Boeing crew. The aircraft was on of the accident is under a training mission from investigation. with its current order backlog GENERAL AVIATION of 5,559 aircraft Embraer’s Legacy 450 against Boeing's 4,080 orderbook. makes first flight However, Boeing Embraer’s latest biz-jet facility in Sao Jose dos took top spot the ‘mid light’ Legacy Campos, Brazil. The full for production, 450 made its maiden fly-by-wire Legacy 450, a delivering 648 flight on 28 December smaller variant of the 500, aircraft compared in a 95 minute test flight is expected to achieve USAF to Airbus’ 626. from the manufacturer’s certification in 2015. Falcon 9 rocket. Lift-off flight to New Zealand. Flag a long-term contract volunteers for a one-way Sikorsky S-76Ds that took place on 6 January carrier Air New Zealand is to sustain the Royal trip to the Red Planet, Bristow placed in March from Cape Canaveral AFB. the launch customer for Netherlands Air Force’s starting in 2025. 2013. the -9 variant. fleet of Hercules C-130s. The applicants were drawn US GA manufacturer Under the Cockpit Upgrade from some 202,000 Engine manufacturer Mooney is to restart aircraft Singapore leasing (CUP) and Cabin Safety people who responded Snecma has announced production following a company Avation has Improvements (CSIMP) to Mars One’s call for that it is to build a cash infusion from its bought five ATR 72-600 Sustainment Programme colonists for the ultimate prototype open-rotor which new Chinese owners. The regional turboprops plus (CCSP), Marshall ADG reality TV show. will be ground tested in Mooney production line five options. The new order will provide airworthiness, 2016 and flight tested on was closed in 2008 but means that Avation now maintenance and reliability Bristow Group has an Airbus A340 in 2019. could be working again has 14 new ATR 72-600s information. received its first fully within six months. to be delivered before the configured S-76D Bombardier has won end of 2015. Dutch-based Martian helicopter from Sikorsky an order from American In January a Boeing 787-9 colony space company, for offshore oil-rig support. Airlines for 30 CRJ900 test aircraft made its first Marshall Aerospace and Mars One has chosen The delivery is the first regional jets plus 40 overseas debut with a Defence Group has won a shortlist of 1,058 of an order for up to 26 options. @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 7
Radome AEROSPACE GENERAL AVIATION Textron to buy London Air The London Air Ambulance service has celebrated Beechcraft Ambulance’s its first 25 years of operation. Starting in January 1990 flying out of Biggin Hill, the service has come The recently rebranded the parent company of silver jubilee to the aid of over 30,000 patients. The service is now fundraising for a second helicopter. US GA manufacturer Beechcraft for $1·4bn $ Beechcraft deal, and bring is to be together bought the by Cessna Textron, and owner London Air Ambulance of the Beechcraft Cessna GA GA and business company and Bell aircraft brands. The deal is Helicopters. Textron is expected to be completed to buy Beech Holdings, in the first half of 2014. DEFENCE SPACEFLIGHT US aerospace company Is it a truck? Is it a plane? Advanced Tactics has Reaction Engines tie up developed a vertical take-off military transport with USAF research lab vehicle. Named the AT Black Knight Transformer, UK space company and potential future an unmanned technology Reaction Engines development of Reaction demonstrator completed has arranged a co- Engines’ SABRE air- driving tests in December operative research and breathing rocket engine 2013 and is scheduled to development agreement designed for low-cost make its first flight early with the US Air Force space access and high- this year. The vehicle is Research Laboratory’s speed atmospheric flight. Advanced Tactics designed for autonomous Aerospace Systems The assessement will casualty evacuation, Directorate (AFRL/RQ). be used to inform US as well as manned or The tie up will assess the government stakeholders unmanned cargo resupply. performance, applications of SABRE’s potential. NEWS IN BRIEF additional Ariane 5 which will have test sites regulatory approval, the (SLS) heavy lift rocket. The USAF and US Coast launchers from Airbus for the commercial use name change will take Guard (USCG) are to swap Defence & Space. The new of UAVs. The six states place in the second quarter A Kamov Ka-32 helicopter two aircraft types — with Ariane 5s are scheduled to are Alaska, Nevada, New of 2014. from a Chinese icebreaker the USCG acquiring 14 begin launching from 2017 York, North Dakota, Texas has successfully airlifted to surplus USAF C-27J onwards. and Virginia. The sites will BAE Systems has said that safety passengers aboard Spartan transports that be used to help develop RAF Tornados have flown a research vessel that had were put into temporary A pilot was killed and operational rules for the with 3D printed or additive been trapped in Antarctic storage. In exchange, the two others injured when safe operation of UAVs in layer manufacturing (ALM) ice. Air Force is set to receive a Canadair Challenger commercial airspace by the parts. BAE predicts this seven C-130s from the 601 private jet crashed end of 2015. could cut the cost of Members of the Boeing Coast Guard, which will at Aspen/Pitkin County spares by over £1·2m in machinists union voted by be converted into forestry airport in Chicago on 5 The American Airlines the next four years. 51 to 49% on 3 January fire-fighting aircraft. January. Group is to rebrand its to accept a new contract American Eagle Airlines ATK has completed hot fire which should ensure the Arianespace has placed The US FAA has subsidiary under the new avionics tests on NASA’s continuation of Boeing an €2bn order for 18 announced the six states name of Envoy. Subject to new Space Launch System 777 production in Seattle. 8 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
DEFENCE 777Xs for AEROSPACE UAE pulls Cathay US company Flexsys is to Cathay Pacific test fly its FlexFoil variable Morphing flaps to geometry control surfaces plug on has ordered 21 aboard a Gulfstream GIII be tested Boeing 777-9X Typhoon aircraft. Deliveries in July. Trailing-edge flaps will be replaced with 14ft deal are scheduled FlexFoil surfaces together between 2021 to with 24in transition Flexsys In December, BAE Systems 2024. sections at each end. reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will not be proceeding any SPACEFLIGHT further with a proposed Infographic: Gaia reaches L2 Lagrange point £6bn deal to buy 60 Eurofighter Typhoons, with the company saying: “The UAE have advised that they have elected not to proceed with these proposals at this time.” Meanwhile, the company reported that: “Whilst good progress has been made, a definitive agreement has yet to be reached” over the finalisation of the Salaam deal to supply Typhoons to Saudia Arabia. Airbus Defence and Space Eurofighter ON THE MOVE Lockheed Martin elected Director of KLM UK Muilenburg, while Shelley Abubakar is to be its new Marillyn Hewson as Engineering. Lavender will replace Air Officer Commanding The International Air Chairman of the Board Chadwick as leader of Training Command Kaduna Transport Association from 1 January. Dennis Muilenburg has Boeing Military Aircraft. while his predecessor Air (IATA) has appointed Kevin been named as Boeing’s Vice Marshal I Umar moves Hiatt as Senior VP, Safety ADS has announced that new Vice Chairman, Etihad Airways has to Defence Headquarters and Flight Operations. its new President for the President and CEO. appointed Amina Tahe as as Chief of Policy & Plans. next two years will be Raymond Conner is Head of Media Relations. Walid Abukhaled is to Marcus Bryson. promoted to Boeing Vice Charles Paterson is the become CE of Northrop Chairman, President and Jeff Standerski has been new Senior Vice President Grumman's Saudi business. Emirates president Tim CEO of Boeing Commercial appointed Senior VP of of Business Development Clark has been awarded a Airplanes. Christopher Rockwell Collins’ new and Strategy for GKN Raytheon CEO William H knighthood in the UK New Chadwick is appointed Information Management Aerospace, replacing Swanson is to step down. Year Honours List. as Boeing Executive VP, Services division. Michael McCann who has He will be succeeded by President, President and become CEO of GKN EVP and COO Dr Thomas Arjan Meijer has been CEO, Boeing Defense, The Nigerian Air Force has Aerospace — Engine A Kennedy, effective from appointed Managing Space & Security, replacing announced that AVM SB Systems. March. @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 9
antenna: Global Outlook and Analysis with HOWARD WHEELDON GoCo dead — long live DE&S+! T he potential creation of a GoCo — employed, currently made up of 16,000 military and Government Owned, Contractor civil service posts, making the right decision on the Operated — organisation to run defence future restructuring of the defence procurement procurement operation in the UK may organisation would be crucial to its success. The now be off the agenda but that does not process of required change had begun as long ago mean the idea of privatisation of the procurement as October 2009 when the independent ‘Review of operation has been permanently ditched. Acquisition for the Secretary of State for Defence’ Nevertheless, for now, defence procurement is to be was conducted by Bernard Gray. His report was to retained in the public sector within what has been be largely critical of how defence procurement was defined as a substantially upgraded and yet freed up conducted and its principal recommendation was DE&S+ operation which, as announced by Secretary that, in future procurement should be outsourced of State for Defence in December, will be given new to a government-owned, contractor-operated powers from April allowing it to break away from organisation. Hence, the idea of GoCo was born. current civil service pay restraints. Not surprisingly, the outsourcing recommendation Poor leadership, low morale and a lack of drive met with stiff opposition from the Brown combined with the distinct lack of remuneration Government. But, with a change of Government in incentive lie at the heart of why UK defence April 2010 and publication six months later of the procurement is in a mess. There has been too little SDSR, the possibility of creating a GoCo took a incentive to succeed and precious little in the way giant step forward towards potential reality when of constructive leadership. There have also been the Coalition signalled an intention to seriously a combination of other factors, including constant consider this as a possibility within the overarching changes being made to already agreed programme act of defence reform. requirements and differing sections of the military While few disagreed that something was very being allowed to interfere on equipment programmes badly wrong with how the system of defence forcing through expensive change without a proper procurement operated, how to resolve the problem understanding of the consequences. Then, there are and secure a more sound and efficient system that the politically based arguments on final numbers, would provide best value for the taxpayer, give the cost, timing and use of available cash — all have military with what they required on budget and on played a part in preventing the establishment of a time while at the same time to work better for the clear cut and efficient system in procurement-based MoD and industry would be fraught with difficulty. decision-making processes. To be fair, there has Opinions differed and, while the Secretary for already been some improvement in performance of Defence and the by now Chief of Defence Materiel, the existing Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S) Bernard Gray were firmly behind the GoCo, the operation. Under Chief of Defence Materiel, Bernard decision was made to test the wider views of Gray, operational management has significantly industry together with those that might potentially improved. But, set against a background of forced choose to compete for the contract to operate cuts in the number of staff employed combined with the unfortunate loss of highly skilled staff that have AgustaWestland AW159 Wildcat chosen to leave DE&S due either to the constant — but is it time for a shake-up in living in fear of losing their job or the very poor UK defence procurement? levels of pay, many have jumped ship, seizing better opportunities offered in the private sector. No matter whether procurement was to be partially privatised or to remain inside the public sector, it was very clear that large scale change was needed. The right decisions With an annual budget of £14bn and responsibility for an already much reduced number of staff 10 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2013
Chief of Defence Material, Bernard Gray MoD GoCo. Against this background it should be noted Debate far from over that all the way through, on the grounds of fear of potentially increased risk, Whitehall support for With the House of Commons Defence Select GoCo was very limited. Committee looking at not only why the notional Even if the GoCo idea had real merit as time idea of part privatising the operation of defence moved on as the debate and potential concerns procurement failed, why the various bidders POOR widened, it was, I suspect, the personalities involved walked away and, importantly, why the current LEADERSHIP, in the potential creation and running of a future Chief of Defence Material was given the job of GoCo that gave rise to the largest area of concern. running the proposed DE&S+ operation without LOW MORALE, The defence industry itself made plain that it would there being a competition, the debate on defence LACK OF DRIVE be happy to work with whatever system of procurement is far from over. More sparks COMBINED procurement operation was decided may well fly in terms of the personalities WITH THE by the Defence Minister. In the end, involved and the pressure on the left with only one potential bidder, Defence Secretary on the handling DISTINCT the increased complexities and of procurement debate may well LACK OF perceived risk placed on those intensify. The bottom line is that, REMUNERATION within the private sector that from a would-be private sector had led two other consortium stance, the GoCo option failed INCENTIVE partnerships to withdraw left because those that might have LIE AT THE the Defence Secretary with wished to sign up to operate it in HEART OF WHY little choice but to back away partnership with the MoD had no UK DEFENCE from the GoCo option in favour of guarantee of being allowed to make public sector retention of defence profit without realising further substantial PROCUREMENT procurement in the form of an upgraded MoD cuts in operational cost. That neither the IS IN A MESS DE&S+ structure that would be given much greater Treasury nor the Cabinet Office had been keen freedom of operation. on the GoCo option due to the fear of future risk Abandoning the GoCo option in favour of and probably also that the proposed Trading Fund moving forward with a public sector-based DE&S+ under which it would operate would not have was to be a bitter blow for Defence Secretary Philip been a central body of Government should not be Hammond just as it would also be for its principal ignored. advocate, Bernard Gray. And it would be Gray that, By the time the GoCo competition was killed to the surprise of some, the Government asked to off in favour of moving forward with a revised run the upgraded DE&S+. While it is true that it had and rejuvenated public sector DE&S+ option, the been Gray who had given birth to the GoCo option process had cost the taxpayer £7·4m. Moving for future defence procurement, given the need forward the DE&S+ option will, according to Gray, for stability through what will be a further process cost a further £17·3m to establish. of change, I will no doubt be in the minority when Three years since the procurement debate I say that I believe Philip Hammond has made the started, have we now moved on? DE&S may be right decision. Gruff, unpopular perhaps, suffering weakened through the GoCo stealth process fools badly and even causing unnecessary internal attempt but I do believe that, for now the right friction as Gray is often accused, I believe that, decision has been made. In the knowledge that given that he has one year of his contract left to run £4bn of programme risk provision is set in stone and given his large scale experience in procurement and, as Hammond confirmed again in December, operation, this remaining period should be used that the procurement programme has at least been wisely in the process of change and transition of stabilised, the new DE&S+ structure can start from DE&S to DE&S+. a reasonably clean slate. Given the value of defence to the national economy, the prospect of future cost overruns is not in my view an excuse for the MoD to attempt further risk reduction through policies of buying off-the-shelf. That would be counterproductive but, by learning to work closer and more efficiently with industry and by improving internal and external communication, DE&S+ should be able to play a much larger part in the overall risk reduction process. The emergence of trust and stability in the AgustaWestland relationship between government procurer, supplier and those directly responsible for procurement will be important in the final analysis as to whether DE&S+ will be enduring or not. @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/ra www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 11
Transmission LETTERS AND ONLINE Wikipedia answers. Relying on experts carried in such aircraft (see alone without oversight, Cybersecurity in aviation, simply isn’t enough. Recent p26). evidence for this assertion include the banking crisis Paul E. Team Lead, Data of 2006 onwards and the Centre at Arik Air You Mid-Staffs NHS scandal. have a valid point Johnny. However, I believe that John Blauth AMRAeS as every new technology Immediate Network Ltd comes with its challenges, system vulnerability to hacks is one of the issues i that would most likely lead to the deployment of RPAS (remotely piloted air systems) in fully unmanned civil roles (i.e. cargo, Glider on tow. agricultural operations) first. It may take quite a while before we see RPAS Glider upset training Maintaining this reflex Rupert Murdoch, British spy deployed in the commercial While reading the and using the rudder on a chiefs or any number of fat Johnny S. Independent passenger transport sector. December issue of commercial aircraft can be cats — bosses of energy airlines aviation In the initial stages of RPAS AEROSPACE, I stumbled detrimental and may even firms, failed banks, the BBC professional [on deployment in the open upon an article entitled worsen the situation in the — they have provided many implications of US moves airspace, as you clearly The right attitude(1) which case of an upset situation of the big political moments to introduce RPAS into point out, control system summarises the different (ironically, the article later in this Parliament.’ to penetrate right into the lapse) time, RPAS hacks to read about easyJet such approach is endorsed The AAIB, the CAA and Pentagon’s secret files. would be mitigated to a point Captain Sarah Kelman in the ‘safety’ tab of your their colleagues at the Sooner or later a similar beyond which they would explaining how gliders magazine. I would like to DfT are all experts in their breakthrough by terrorist be a much less significant are capable of teaching suggest that this approach field who do vital work on hackers could make it threat when we eventually stalls, spin and upset be revised to avoid behalf of all UK citizens. possible for them to ‘hijack’ have remotely piloted situations. I would have possible negative training It is because of this last a civil remotely controlled manned aircraft systems liked to have been present on such a delicate subject. point that what they do aircraft and use it for their in the open airspace. Of at the full presentation in should be overseen by own nefarious means. The course, this is not saying the hope that my doubts Peimann Tofighi knowledgeable, though not safeguards will make this that the aerospace design are reassured as, in my expert, politicians who are impossible? Try telling that community will not have point of view, this approach Role of Parliamentary responsible for ensuring to the military and civilian to do anything about is totally against safety. Transport Committee that the interests of citizens people who have to counter this potential barrier. Although I can understand The answer to the question are taken into account. hacker attacks (like bank Due recognition must be that gliders can teach a lot posed by Michael Benoy The Transport Committee’s frauds) in the present time. given to this threat in the about basic aerodynamics, in AEROSPACE, Letters, role is to ask questions A self-destruct system current design of RPAS they can certainly not be December 2013(2) that might appear simple, on board may help but systems for civil operations taken as references for (What value does the irrelevant or daft but these it will not apply if, in the and adequate mitigating commercial aviation when Parliamentary Transport can deliver important future, passengers are measures must be taken. it comes to upset training. Committee add to the Flying a glider requires AAIB and CAA?) is simple: Microdrones GmBH certain reactions that are independent oversight. prohibited when flying It is a recent habit to mock a commercial aircraft, politicians and to sneer at especially during an upset the political process but recovery. When flying that is to ignore the useful a glider, the yaw effect and often valuable work necessitates a strong carried out by Parliament’s activity on the rudder; select committees. this is true in normal and As the Economist wrote in abnormal situations. November: ‘Whether grilling md4-100 quadrotor UAV. 12 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
NVIDIA Geoffrey W. @RAFScopie [On Space @4tis [On a Belgian Chartered senior aircraft Debris the legal issues](5) school using a quad- structural design The Cosmos collision the copter UAV to monitor and development article mentions was 1st students taking exams] I’m engineering professional. reported & catalogued guessing it’s a hoax. It’s There is a lot of research by non other than moi noisy, disruptive (blow- potential not only in (& my team that night.) ing papers), could injure aerodynamics and future someone & only ~15 mins configurations but also flying time. PR stunt? in lightweight airframe structures (advanced stitched composites), new @sUASNews [On who manufacturing methods, is winning race to unlock incorporating into existing skies for UAVs](3) Europe @Aspavold [On Hawk jet basic configurations. The already did. At last count trainer turning 40 this year] issue as always is funding. there where 1,164 great product, proud to certificated operators. have worked on them for Japan has over 14,000. 17 years of my career @MarcusUAV Good @P_H_Images It’s fair to hear the commercial to say that comparing market is finally taking the [Hawk] T2 to the shape there.... T1 is like comparing @LossComm [On USAF a British Leyland Mini PaveHawk crash] What’s to the current version! the protocol for a foreign mil a/c crash on UK soil? Do @aaibgovuk lead, MoD or foreign mil? T2 Hawk trainers from RAF Valley. Graphic representation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) from computer graphics company NVIDIA. BAE Systems R&D — the need for supercomputers Charles G. CFD, software with the most Fluid Dynamics and efficient numerical solvers Engineering Software for massively parallel Tool Developer and supercomputers is also Analyst [on What do needed. I believe that the you think is in store for transonic tunnel from the renaissance of UK DERA Bedford went to Aerospace?](4) I think also ARA. There was also a having more powerful new low-speed tunnel at HPCs (supercomputers) Farnborough? The UK are needed compared to also contributed I believe what is in the USA, China a third of the money and Europe. Since most towards the cryogenic engineering products are tunnel at Koln which can 1. The right attitude, AEROSPACE, December 2013, p 22. designed virtually and the reproduce true Reynolds 2. Transmission, AEROSPACE, December 2013, p 12. 3. http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight/2014/01/10/the-us-moves-closer-to-rpas-operation-in-controlled- physics is modelled virtually number flows. The wind- airspace/8977/ having the most powerful tunnels complement 4. http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight/2013/12/06/the-uk-aerospace-renaissance/8881/ HPCs is an advantage and validate the CFD 5. Space debris: The legal issues, AEROSPACE, January 2014, p 14. for modelling coupled developments. But it is only aerodynamic/structure/ with updated tools can acoustics/combustion/ thermal to make the further developments in aerodynamics, propulsion, Online Additional features and content are available to view most efficient designs. systems and design be Developing the necessary made. online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 13
Asia-Pacific airlines Low-cost carriers 46 T en years ago, low-cost carriers (LCCs) as it does not include aircraft ordered for LCCs were the minor players in the Asia- which are owned by larger airlines which often utilise Pacific region, representing only around aircraft ordered by their parent company. Asia-Pacific LCCs 2% of total capacity. However, the market has since experienced a radical Owners and operators 1,000 reversal with budget airlines now accounting for over 50% of intra-regional capacity in Southeast While many Asia-Pacific LCCs are privately owned, Asia and 10% in North Asia. others are operated as subsidiaries of larger Total LCC aircraft In the past two years, the expansion of LCCs (see table on next page). The largest group LCCs has been continuing to accelerate at an operator is AirAsia whose LCC-owned or controlled 1,500 unprecedented rate with more and more new airlines accounts for a total fleet of 172 aircraft, carriers joining the market each year — six in 2012, plus a further 388 on order. AirAsia’s LCC affiliates five in 2013 and a further 11 planned in 2014. include Thai AirAsia, Indonesia AirAsia (a 49/51% LCC aircraft on order According to statistics published by CAPA Centre joint venture between AirAsia and local interests), for Aviation, there are currently 46 airlines classified Philippines’ AirAsia and AirAsia X — the latter 50% as low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, specialising in long-haul routes based on low-cost operating close to 1,000 aircraft, equivalent to 15% airports. The second largest group is Lion which also of the estimated total 6,800 in-service commercial operates Jakarta-based regional operator Wings Air. LCC share of total aircraft fleet in the region (see table on p15). This Lion is also unique among LCCs in operating a full- capacity in SE Asia figure will continue to rise, with an additional 1,500 service subsidiary, Batik. new LCC aircraft on order, equivalent to 50% of total The third largest LCC operator is the Jetstar new orders. The total may actually be even larger, group with 116 aircraft, while another leading Low-cost high hopes Recent years have seen a huge expansion in low-cost airline operations in the Asia-Pacific region. But can this growth rate be sustained? BILL READ reports. Tigerair and its affiliate airlines now have a fleet of 50 Airbus A320s. 14 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
low-cost carrier is Cebu Pacific Air with 48 A319/320/330 and ATR72-500s operating domestic and international services within Asia. To counter the threat of competition from LCCs, a number of mainstream carriers have created their own budget airlines. Australian flag carrier Qantas operates long-haul LCC Jetstar which, in turn, operates a number of regional joint venture ATR carriers — Jetstar Asia in Singapore, Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam, Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Hong Kong. Air India operates a low cost subsidiary Air India Asia-Pacific low-cost carriers by country Express based in Mumbai which flies to both destinations within India as well as to Asia and Country LCCs (no. of aircraft*) + new LCCs for 2014 the Middle East. Thai Airlines has a 39% share in AUSTRALIA Jetstar Airways (74), Tigerair Australia (12) Bangkok-based LCC Nok Air which has domestic CHINA Hong Kong Express (4), Lucky Air (17), Spring Airlines (39), flights within Thailand using a fleet of Boeing West Air (13) + China United, Jetstar Hong Kong, Jiu Yuan 737-800s together with ATR and Saab regional China, China United Airlines turboprops. Asiana Airlines operates a subsidiary INDIA Air India Express (21), GoAir (17), IndiGo (73), JetLite (13), called Air Busan while Korean Air has a low-cost SpiceJet (56) + AirAsia India carrier based in Seoul called Jin Air. INDONESIA Citilink (24), Indonesia AirAsia (30), Lion Air (94), Lion Air Some LCCs are jointly owned by a number of Indonesia, Tigerair Mandala (9), Wings Air (27) companies. Singapore-based Tigerair (formally JAPAN Air Do (13), Jetstar Japan (18), Peach (11), Skymark Tiger Airways) is owned by Tiger Airways Holdings; Airlines (33), Solaseed (12), Star Flyer (11), Vanilla Air (2) a consortium comprising Singapore Airlines, Indigo + Spring Japan Partners Singapore and RyanAsia. Jetstar Japan MALAYSIA AirAsia (74), AirAsia X (19), Malindo Air (10) is a joint venture between Qantas Airways, Japan MYANMAR Golden Myanmar Airlines (2) Airlines and Mitsubishi and sources its aircraft from PHILIPPINES Cebu Pacific Air (48), Philippines AirAsia (2), Tigerair Qantas. Japanese low-cost carrier Peach is a joint Philippines (5), Zest Air (13) venture between All Nippon Airways, Innovation SINGAPORE Scoot (6), Tigerair (25) Network Corporation of Japan and First Eastern SOUTH KOREA Air Busan (11), Eastar Jet (9), Jeju Air (13), Jin Air (10), Investment Group. Sri Lanka’s only LCC, Mihin T’way (6) Lanka, is owned by the Sri Lankan government. SRI LANKA Mihin Lanka (3) TAIWAN - + Tigerair Taiwan THAILAND Nok Air (21), Orient Thai Airlines (22), Thai AirAsia (35), Expansion plans Thai Lion Air (2) + NokScoot, Thai AirAsia X, Thai VietJet VIETNAM Jetstar Asia (19), Jetstar Pacific (5), VietJet Air (10) All the LCCs have ambitions to expand and many have already invested in new aircraft. Lion Air *Based on CAPA statistics for end 2013 recently took delivery of its 100th 737 and is asking Boeing to increase its rate of future deliveries. The carrier is also reported to be considering placing Airlines, followed by a new Thai affiliate, Thai Lion Air, Asia-Pacific an order for 50 or more Bombardier CSeries 300 which began flying in December using a fleet of two LCCs’ aircraft regional jets in early 2014. At the 2012 Singapore 737-900ERs. In some cases, new budget carriers orderbook Air Show, Lion Air’s regional subsidiary Wings Air are being created by re-launching full-service model signed a contract for the purchase of 27 additional ATR 72-600 aircraft. Once these have been added to its fleet at the end of 2015, Wings will become airlines. Hong Kong Express is one such example while Vanilla was formerly AirAsia Japan. In 2014, up to 11 new LCCs may begin flying in 576 Lion group the largest operator of ATR aircraft in the world, with the Asia-Pacific region (see table above). In March a total fleet of 60 aircraft (20 ATR 72-500s and 40 ATR 72-600s). Meanwhile, South Korean budget this year, Lion Air plans to launch a new Indonesia LCC under the name of Batik Airlines. Meanwhile, 388 AirAsia group carrier Jeju Air has announced plans to increase its AirAsia has taken over control of Batavia Airways current 13-strong 737-800 fleet by an additional and is seeking approval from the Indian Directorate six or seven aircraft during 2014, as well as raising annual sales by 23% from won 340bn to won General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to set up AirAsia India, a new low-cost airline to be jointly owned with 125 Jetstar group 530bn. SAI-owned Scoot also plans to increase its two Indian investors. Thai carrier Nok Air is planning fleet of six 777-200s to 14 aircraft by 2016 while Thai LCC Nok Air is planning to almost double its to begin competing with Air Asia X in the medium/ long-haul sector with the launch of NokScoot 70 VietJet fleet to 30 aircraft by the end of 2015. — a new LCC carrier set up in conjunction with New LCCs are continuing to take-off. In March Singapore Airlines’ subsidiary Scoot and due to 18 Airbus 2013, Lion Air began operating a new 49% owned begin flying in the second quarter of 2014 using Malaysian low-cost budget airline called Malindo two SIA 777-200s. Tigerair group @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 15
Asia-Pacific airlines Low-cost carriers While countries in Northern Asia have been slower to adopt the LCC concept than their southern neighbours, the situation is beginning to change. In Taiwan, which currently only has 4-5% LCC market share, China Airways announced plans to launch Tigerair Taiwan in 2014, a new LCC joint- venture with Tigerair. Meanwhile, Vietnamese LCC VietJet, which competes with state-owned Vietnam Airlines Corp and Jetstar Pacific, has declared its aim to double its domestic market share to 50% in three years. The low-cost model has also reached mainland ATR China. Shanghai-based Spring Airlines, founded in 2005, claims to be China’s first and only low-cost Asia-Pacific low-cost affiliates airline — although Hong Kong Express, Lucky and Owners Affiliates West Air are also operating under the low-cost model with another four to join them in 2014. AIR ASIA Thai AirAsia, Indonesia AirAsia, Zest Air, Philippines AirAsia, AirAsia X, Spring Airlines, which recently took delivery of its AirAsia India (2014), Thai AirAsia X (2014) 39th aircraft, is planning to expand with the launch AIR INDIA Air India Express of Spring Airlines Japan in May 2014. In early ANA Peach, Vanilla Air January, China Eastern Airlines announced plans to ASIANA AIRLINES Air Busan convert its China United Airlines subsidiary into a CHINA AIRLINES/TIGERAIR Tigerair Taiwan (2014) low-cost carrier. CHINA EASTERN China United (2014) CHINA EASTERN/JETSTAR Jetstar Hong Kong (2014) GARUDA Citilink If you can’t beat them HAINAN AIRLINES Lucky Air, West Air HONG KONG AIRLINES Hong Kong Express Instead of competing with each other, some Asia- JET AIRWAYS JetLite Pacific LCCs have decided to work together instead. JETSTAR Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Japan, Jetstar Pacific, Valuair Malindo Air recently signed an interline agreement KAM AIR/VIETJET Thai VietJet (2014) with Thai Lion Air which would allow passengers KOREAN AIR Jin Air to book a single combined e-ticket for flights LION Wings Air, Malindo Air, Thai Lion Air SINGAPORE AIRLINES Scoot operated by both airlines. Qantas controlled Jetstar SCOOT/NOK NokScoot (2014) Asia is considering joining the Qantas-Emirates SPRING AIRLINES Spring Japan (2014) airline alliance. In December Tigerair and SpiceJet SRILANKAN AIRLINES Mihin Lanka signed a three-year interline agreement to enable TIGERAIR Tigerair Australia, Tigerair Mandala, Tigerair greater connectivity between flights Philippines (to be sold to Cebu Pacific) operated by both carriers. Tigerair, VIETJET AIR VietJet which has an existing interline agreement with Singapore- based Scoot, also announced that the two carriers are to form a it was announced that partnership Tigerair was to sell to further align its 40% stake in their commercial Tigerair Philippines activities. In January to Cebu Pacific, as part of a strategic alliance being set up between the two Lion Air Malaysian and carriers. Thai affiliates Malindo Air In some cases, too and Thai Lion Air operate an interline agreement to much co-operation can market joint e-tickets. ATR get airlines into trouble. In September, the Malaysian Competition Commission (MyCC) fined its national carrier MAS and AirAsia RM10m each for monopolising four routes during an eight- month pact. xx AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
Safety concerns other two aircraft to follow in 2015. Although the Indian market has often been The growth in low-cost operations has not been reported as showing huge potential for LCCs, fierce without its problems. In April 2013, a newly competition and a lack of sufficient demand have purchased Lion Air 737-800 crashed into the sea made business difficult for carriers operating in the after landing short of the runway at Bali Airport. region. In 2013 IndiGo and GoAir were reported as IF PROOF WERE Despite the aircraft breaking into two, all 101 being the only Indian carriers to report a profit in the NEEDED OF passengers and seven crew were safely evacuated, previous financial year while, in September, Indian THE GROWING although four passengers were treated for serious LCC SpiceJet announced a quarterly loss of Rs IMPORTANCE injuries. A preliminary report from Indonesia’s 559·49 crore. National Transportation Safety Committee called Airports are also beginning to reach capacity. OF THE ASIA- on the airline to tighten up pilot training and safety Airports of Thailand (AOT) is trying to free up PACIFIC procedures. The airline was again in the headlines more space at Suvarnabhumi Bangkok Airport by MARKET, THEN after passengers staged public protests after offering reduced landing fees to airlines that move IT CAN BEEN experiencing a series of delays and cancellations their operations to Don Muang 45km away. Not on its flights due to industrial and organisational all carriers are keen to make the move, as they FOUND IN THE problems. In October, Lion Air was the subject of a face losing connections with other flights. Phuket EXPANSION two-week evaluation by the Indonesian Ministry of Airport in Thailand is also running well over capacity, OF ITS LOW- Transportation. although a $180m airport upgrade is due to be There have also been safety concerns with other completed in 2015. COST AIR airlines. In August the Civil Aviation Authority of the There is also the threat of regional politics TRANSPORT Philippines (CAAP) grounded Air Asia budget carrier adversely effecting demand. Recent political SECTOR affiliate Zest Air due to a series of safety breaches, conflicts in Thailand have reduced the country’s including refuelling with passengers onboard. A tourist demand with a knock-on effect on airlines. number of other Asian carriers are also raising safety Thai AirAsia recently reported that its cabin loadings concerns, as shown by the list of airlines currently in November fell by 5% to 82% with the biggest banned from flying within the European Union decline in demand being from China. which includes Lion Air, Citilink Indonesia, Air Asia China’s own politics may also have an adverse Philippines, Cebu Pacific and Zest Airways. effect on the Asia-Pacific airlines. Beijing has recently set up a new air defence zone over the Future challenges East China Sea and is demanding that all foreign aircraft passing through the zone should identify Three new Boeing 737s Although at present the future looks rosy for the themselves to Chinese authorities. While this edict being prepared for delivery Asia-Pacific low-cost airline segment, it might be has largely been ignored by US, Japanese and at Seattle in June to Lion Air. Lion Air now has a fleet of wise to add a few words of caution. The present South Korean military aircraft, Korean Airlines and over 100 737s. Boeing buoyant economic conditions may not last forever Asiana Airlines have both begun filing flight plans and there is the risk that there may not be sufficient while the US government has advised US carriers demand in the future for all the new aircraft United, American and Delta also to comply, adding capacity currently on order. The Asia-Pacific region that the decision did “not indicate US government has suffered from economic downturns before. acceptance of China’s requirements.” Japan, Eleven years ago saw demand for air travel in however, has not complied and civil aircraft operated the region plummet due to the outbreak of by ANA and Japan Airlines have continued to fly SARS with flights to and from China down through the zone without informing China. Military by 45% at one point. tensions in the area remain high and there are Even if demand does hold up, too concerns that civil air travel could be adversely much growth can sometimes bring affected should the situation escalate (see Pacific problems of its own — including Storm, p 18). pilot shortages, airport and air traffic congestion and pollution. Low-cost future Not all LCCs are finding the going easy. Garuda Indonesia If proof were needed of the growing importance of affiliate Citilink had a tough year in the Asia-Pacific market, then it can been found in 2013 due to the fall of over 20% in the expansion of its low-cost air transport sector. By the Indonesian rupiah against the US how much this sector will grow and whether it will dollar. The airline had announced plans for be sustainable is difficult to predict at the moment, rapid expansion in 2014 with new routes to as the low-cost revolution is still underway. But the Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Perth but scaled present prospects look good. In the words of Tony back its investment plans when it announced in Fernandes, CEO of Air Asia X: “There are three December that it was reducing an order for ten billion people in Asia. As long as we keep fares low, Airbus A320s due in 2014 down to eight, with the people will fly.” @aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2014 17
DEFENCE Asia-Pacific defence procurement PacificStorm The US pivot to Asia-Pacific and China’s accelerating military capabilities are amid growing tensions in the region. TIM ROBINSON assesses air power and defence in Asia Pacific. is emerging as not only an economic superpower — but a military one at that. Its ‘great leap’ forward in terms of naval expeditory power, precision weapons, UAVs and stealth aircraft, along with its new assertiveness such as unilaterally declaring an air defence zone over disputed islands — has thus increased tensions amongst its regional neighbours. A Despite the US's public ‘pivot to Asia’ there Lockheed Martin growing military power, intent on too is also an unspoken concern by allies in flexing its newly found muscles and the region that a war-weary, isolationist and is to support proving its status, runs up against the budgetary constrained US — now simply cannot be repair of Japan's established order. Nationalism and everywhere in the Pacific where it might be needed. Lockheed Martin F-2 fighters bellicose posturing runs riot. It is no The resullt has seen growth in military spending wonder that in the recent months, parallels have and procurement in Asia-Pacific with a 5% increase damaged in the been found between 1914 and an inexorable drift year-on-year fleet size. Let’s take a look at some 2011 tsunami. to war, and 2014, where a new, confident China selected military aviation developments. 18 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2014
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