Logic and Action Plan: Post-Quarterly Progress Meeting - Chesapeake Bay ...

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Logic and Action Plan: Post-Quarterly Progress Meeting - Chesapeake Bay ...
BIENNIAL STRATEGY REVIEW SYSTEM
Chesapeake Bay Program

Logic and Action Plan: Post-Quarterly Progress Meeting

Blue Crab Abundance Outcome – 2020-2021
Long-term Target: Maintain a sustainable blue crab population based on a target of 215 million adult females.
Two-year Target: Improve/maintain the effectiveness of the blue crab stock assessment model for management and continue to communicate the
status of the blue crab population and fishery to managers and the public.
 Instructions: Before your quarterly progress meeting, provide the status of individual actions in the table below using this color key.
 Action has been completed or is moving forward as planned.
 Action has encountered minor obstacles.
 Action has not been taken or has encountered a serious barrier.
Additional instructions for completing or updating your logic and action plan can be found on ChesapeakeDecisions.

                                                                                                                                  Expected
                                 Current
        Factor                                               Gap                    Actions                   Metrics           Response and               Learn/Adapt
                                 Efforts
                                                                                                                                 Application
 What is impacting           What current           What further efforts       What actions are          What will we           How and when do           What did we learn
 our ability to achieve      efforts are            or information are         essential (to help fill   measure or observe     we expect these           from taking this
 our outcome?                addressing this        needed to fully            this gap) to achieve      to determine           actions to address        action? How will this
                             factor?                address this factor?       our outcome?              progress in filling    the identified gap?       lesson impact our
                                                                                                         identified gap?        How might that            work?
                                                                                                                                affect our work
                                                                                                                                going forward?

 Scientific and Technical    UMCES study            Continue to collect        1.2 Improve our           Improvement or         Continual assessment
 Understanding:              examined the           paired-tow data to fully   understanding of          continued              of our analytical
 Lack an understanding       effects of             evaluate the gear          catchability effects on   effectiveness of the   methods, fisheries
 of the effects of           environmental          efficiency discrepancy     blue crab abundance       blue crab stock        surveys, and available
 environmental               factors on blue crab   between MD and VA          estimates.                assessment model       data is necessary to
 variability, habitat, and   abundance and          and correct for bias.                                for management.        ensure that we are
 fishery conditions on       recruitment.           Identify harvest                                                            using the best possible
 blue crab population        Annual WDS             reporting options and                                                       stock assessment
 dynamics and                provides population    barriers to                                                                 model and
 catchability.               estimates. Paired-                                                                                 appropriately

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Sources of uncertainty     tow comparison        implementation in each     1.3 Improve harvest                             managing the blue
 and bias need to be        data are collected    jurisdiction.              reporting and                                   crab fishery with
 identified, reconciled,    to examine gear       Document previous          characterization of                             respect to our long-
 and/or represented         efficiency.           efforts to analyze the     catch composition.                              term outcome.
 effectively in the stock   MDNR implemented      effects of environment                                                     Understanding
 assessment. Ensuring       an e-reporting        on catchability to                                                         environmental effects,
                                                                             1.4 Evaluate fisheries
 use of the best            system to verify      determine next steps.                                                      catchability, and catch
                                                                             surveys, indices, and
 available data and         catch and increase                                                                               composition is
                                                  Increase understanding     analytical models to
 analytical methods can     accountability.                                                                                  particularly critical to
                                                  of catch composition by    determine the best
 address these issues                                                                                                        prepare for future
                            MDNR conducted a      size and sex.              approaches for blue
 and improve the stock                                                                                                       benchmark stock
                            stock assessment      Continue to evaluate       crab stock
 assessment model and                                                                                                        assessments.
                            update in 2017.       the best data and          assessment.
 results.
                            CBSAC funded a        analytical methods for
                            benchmark stock       blue crab stock
                            assessment in 2011,   assessment.
                            led by UMCES.
 Public,                    The Blue Crab         Continue to conduct        1.1 Analyze the          Continued awareness    Jurisdictions rely on
 Nongovernmental            Advisory Report is    the WDS, data analysis,    Winter Dredge Survey     of the status of the   the Blue Crab Advisory
 Organization, and          published annually    and advisory report to     results and develop      blue crab population   Report to inform
 Government Agency          to share WDS          update the status of       the annual Blue Crab     and fishery.           management actions
 Engagement:                results and the       the blue crab              Advisory Report.                                in response to
 Communicating the          current population    population and fishery                                                     fishery/population
 status of the              estimate as well as   each year.                                                                 status.
 Chesapeake Bay blue        CBSAC’s               Continue to collaborate
 crab population and        recommendations       with the Fish GIT,
 fishery is key to          to managers.          fisheries managers, and
 ensuring public            Results of the        other CBP workgroups
                                                                             2.1 Investigate          Improvement or         Understanding how
 understanding of           UMCES ecosystem       to identify applications
                                                                             applications of the      continued              environmental factors
 regulations and            study were shared     of research results for
                                                                             blue crab ecosystem      effectiveness of the   affect blue crab
 investment in a healthy    with CBSAC and the    management and
                                                                             study results to         blue crab stock        population dynamics
 population.                Fish GIT.             cross-cutting indicator
                                                                             management and           assessment model       is an important
 Communicating results                            development.
                                                                             other cross-outcome      for management.        component of the
 of blue crab research                                                       priorities.                                     stock assessment
 and identifying                                                                                                             model. CBSAC is
 applications ensures                                                                                                        interested in
 that the best available                                                                                                     identifying approaches
 science is used to                                                                                                          to incorporate these
 inform management.                                                                                                          study results into the
                                                                                                                             model.

Updated March 3, 2020                                                                                                                                   Page 2 of 5
ACTIONS – 2020-2021
 Action                                                                                                   Responsible Party   Geographic      Expected
                        Description                             Performance Target(s)
   #                                                                                                         (or Parties)      Location       Timeline
 Management Approach 1: Planning and implementing the benchmark stock assessment.
                                                                                                                                           December – March
                                                                                                                                              2019-2020
                                                     Conduct the annual Winter Dredge Survey.                MDNR, VIMS        Bay-wide
                                                                                                                                           December – March
                                                                                                                                              2020-2021

                                                     Analyze results of the Winter Dredge Survey and                                       March – May 2020
                                                                                                          MDNR, VIMS, CBSAC    Bay-wide
                                                     develop management recommendations.                                                   March – May 2021
          Analyze the Winter Dredge Survey results
   1.1    and develop the annual Blue Crab           Conduct the annual stock assessment update
          Advisory Report.                           and develop recommendations on the                                                    March – May 2020
                                                                                                            MDNR, CBSAC        Bay-wide
                                                     effectiveness of the current model as a tool for                                      March – May 2021
                                                     blue crab management.

                                                     Develop and distribute the annual Blue Crab
                                                                                                                                            June – July 2020
                                                     Advisory Report, including results of the stock           CBSAC           Bay-wide
                                                                                                                                            June – July 2021
                                                     assessment update, to managers and the public.

                                                     Document previous efforts to examine the
                                                     effects of habitat and depth on catchability and          CBSAC           Bay-wide      Winter 2021
                                                     evaluate options for next steps.

          Improve our understanding of               Evaluate potential for GIT/CBT to fund an
                                                                                                             NCBO, CBSAC       Bay-wide       Spring 2021
   1.2    catchability effects on blue crab          analysis of environmental effects on catchability.
          abundance estimates.
                                                                                                                                           December – March
                                                     Conduct annual paired-tow comparisons to
                                                                                                                                              2019-2020
                                                     evaluate gear efficiency differences between the        MDNR, VIMS        Bay-wide
                                                                                                                                           December – March
                                                     MD and VA Winter Dredge Surveys.
                                                                                                                                              2020-2021

                                                     Evaluate current harvest reporting efforts,
          Improve harvest reporting and              provide recommendations to jurisdictions, and             CBSAC           Bay-wide       Spring 2021
          characterization of catch composition.     identify barriers to implementation.
   1.3
                                                     Compile and summarize existing catch
                                                     composition data and survey efforts for a future       MDNR, CBSAC        Bay-wide      Winter 2021
                                                     benchmark stock assessment, and provide

Updated March 3, 2020                                                                                                                         Page 3 of 5
recommendations for such surveys to PRFC and
                                                      VMRC.

                                                      Document the methodology of the fishery-
                                                      independent trawl surveys, compare and
                                                      standardize indices, and provide                          CBSAC            Bay-wide   Spring 2021
          Evaluate current indices and analytical     recommendations on the most appropriate
          models to determine the best                indices for stock assessment.
   1.4
          approaches for blue crab stock
          assessment.                                 Evaluate the efficacy of the Winter Dredge
                                                      Survey as an index of abundance and determine
                                                                                                                UMCES            Bay-wide    Fall 2020
                                                      the best analytical approach for blue crab stock
                                                      assessment.

 Management Approach 2: Cross-outcome collaboration and multiple benefits.
                                                      Present and discuss the ecosystem study results
                                                                                                                UMCES            Bay-wide   Winter 2020
                                                      at a CBSAC meeting.

                                                      Identify and evaluate options for incorporating
                                                      the ecosystem study results into the current              CBSAC            Bay-wide   Spring 2021
          Investigate applications of the blue crab   management framework.
   2.1    ecosystem study results to management
          and other cross-outcome priorities.         Advise CRWG on relevant climate indicators
                                                                                                             NCBO, Climate
                                                      associated with blue crab abundance and                                    Bay-wide    Fall 2020
                                                                                                         Resiliency Work Group
                                                      recruitment.

                                                      Advise FAT on relevant forage indicators           NCBO, Forage Action
                                                                                                                                 Bay-wide    Fall 2021
                                                      associated with blue crab abundance.                      Team

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