JOGMEC's approach for critical metals and efforts for stable supply - JOGMEC Oct 9, 2018 - IRTC
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JOGMEC's approach for critical metals and
efforts for stable supply
Yoshihiro Kojima
JOGMEC
Oct 9, 2018
1 Today’s Presentation 1. JOGMEC’s Activity/ Function for Stable Supply on Metals 2. China’s Influence on Global Metal Market from the view point of Japanese Economy
2 Today’s Presentation 1. JOGMEC’s Activity/ Function for Stable Supply on Metals 2. China’s Influence on Global Metal Market from the View Point of Japanese Ecnomy
Natural Resources in Japan 3
• Since Japan has few
domestic natural
resources, Japan
100%
depends on imports
Tin for almost all of its
100% crude oil, natural gas,
99.3% non‐ferrous metals
Copper
99.6% and minerals.
Coal
Oil
The Importance of Metals for Japanese Industry 4
In, 48.7%
Ga, 44.9%
Mo, 16%
REE, 14.8%
Li, 14.0%
Pt, 13% • Japan has high‐tech
Pd, 12.8%※
Ti, 12.1% ※ industries which utilize many
Co, 9.9% ※
Ni, 8% types of metals; especially
Ge, 7.7%
Sn, 7.6% rare metals and REE.
V, 7.5%
W, 7.3% • GDP of Japan is almost 6% in
Nb, 7.1%
Mg, 4.8% the world. Most of rare
Sb, 4.7%
Cu, 4.2% metals are above the
Fe, 3.9% ※
Mn, 3.7% ※ percentage.
Zn, 3.4%
Al, 3.3%
Ag, 3.1%
Pb, 2.5% Iron, Base metals
Zr, 2.0% Rare metals
TiO2, 1.7% Precious metals
Au, 1.5% Rare earth elements
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Source: World Metal Statics 2015(WBMS), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2015(USGS), INDUSTRIAL RARE METALS No.130(アルム出版社)
Percentage of Consumption: Japan/World (2017)
JOGMEC, Who We Are 5
• Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), an
incorporated administrative agency, is established by the
Japanese government.
• The principal role of JOGMEC is to seek a stable supply of natural
resources for Japanese industry as an agency implementing natural
resource policies under jurisdiction of METI.
Since 1963 Since 1967
Metal Mining Agency of Japan Japan National Oil Corporation
(MMAJ) (JNOC)
February 2004
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation
(JOGMEC)
Coal & Geothermal units added
Organization of JOGMEC 6 Headquarter: Tokyo • Metals Strategy & Exploration Unit • Metals & Coal Financial and Environment Unit • Stockpile Unit • Oil & Gas Upstream Business Unit • Oil & Gas Upstream Technology Unit • Geothermal Resource Development Dept. Two research centers in Japan • Metals Technology Center • Technology & Research Center (oil and gas) Worldwide network • 13 overseas offices gathering relevant information
Early‐Stage Overseas Exploration 7
• Take early‐stage risks to promote overseas explorations
• Program
– Typical joint venture style exploration
• Farming into an exploration project held by a foreign
company, then transferring JOGMEC’s contractual interest
to a Japanese company
• Target commodities
H He
– Base metals (Cu, Zn,...) Li Be B C N O F Ne
Na Mg Al Si PP S Cl Ar
– Rare metals K
K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Ｆｅ
Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr
Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe
(Ni, Co, REE, Li, ...) Cs Ba La Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn
Fr Ra Ac Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg
La Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu
Ac Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr
Discovery at Waterberg – for safe and low‐cost operation 8 Waterberg Outline • Exploration started in 2009, Discovery in 2011 • Impala Platinum participated in the project in 2017 • Resources (cut‐off grade 2.5 g/t): [Indicated] 24.8 Miloz 3PGMs+Au [Inferred] 10.8 Miloz 3PGMs+Au • Prill Split : Pd 61%, Pt 30%, Au 8%, Rh 1%+ Cu, Ni
Support Programs for Advanced‐Stage Projects 9 • Financial assistance to Japanese companies for overseas mineral explorations or development projects • Programs – Financing for overseas explorations – Funding part of the equity capital – Guaranteeing the liabilities
Financial Assistance 10
Mt. Weld REE mine • Sojitz and JOGMEC agreed to provide a total
of US$ 250M through loan and equity to
Lynas’s Mt. Weld REE mine on March 2011.
• 8,500 tonnes/year of REE products can be
delivered to Japan.
• First REE products were shipped in March
2013.
JOGMEC Sojitz
Investment
Japan Australia
Rare Earths B.V.
Financing
(Loan & Equity)
Lynas
Mount Weld Rare Earths Concentration PlantFinancial Assistance 11
Araxá Niobium mine • Japanese group (JFE Steel, Nippon Steel, Sojitz
& JOGMEC) acquire 10% stake in CBMM on
March 2011 by investing US$ 1.3B.
• CBMM owns Araxá niobium mine, refining
plant & metallurgical facilities.
• CBMM produces over 80% of global supply.
• Reserves of Araxá mine is equivalent to over
200 years of world demand.
JOGMEC Sojitz JFE NSC POSCO NPS
Investment
Japanese SPC Korean SPC
10% 5%
Aerial View of Araxá mine CBMMRe‐evaluation of Criticality Matrix 12
• Refers to EU’s
model
• Adjusts for
Supply Risk
Japanese
industries
• Data used is
2012.
• Now updating
Economic Importance13 Today’s Presentation 1. JOGMEC’s Activity/ Function for Stable Supply on Metals 2. China’s Influence on Global Metal Market from the View Point of Japanese Economy
Chinaʼs share in ・In last 10 years, Chinese Cu
Copper consumption expanded by 8 million ton.
consumption ・On the other hand, ex-China shrunk
・Chinaʼs share is about 50%
kt Refined Cu Consumption
25,000
Others
20,000
Russia
Italy
15,000
Korea
10,000 Japan
Germany
5,000 USA
China
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Chinaʼs share in ・In last 10 years, Chinese Zn
Zinc consumption consumption expanded by 3.5 million ton.
・On the other hand, ex-China shrunk
kt Zinc Consumption
16,000
14,000
Others
12,000
Belugium
10,000 Germany
8,000 Japan
6,000
India
Korea
4,000
USA
2,000
China
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Chinaʼs share in ・In last 10 years, Chinese Lead
Lead consumption expanded by 2.4 million ton.
・On the other hand, ex-China consumption
consumption grew only 800 k ton.
kt
Lead Consumption
12,000
10,000 Others
Japan
8,000
UK
Germany
6,000
Korea
4,000 India
USA
2,000
China
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016China’s Share of Base Metal Consumption (2017)
Refined Copper Aluminum Lead
【World】23,460Kt（Cu t） 【World】59,190Kt 【World】11,480Kt（Pb t）
50.3% 53.9% 41.3%
Zinc Nickel
【World】14,213Kt（Zn t） 【World】1,910Kt（Ni t）
49.0% 40.3%・The peak of total population
Maturing China’s Economy and
will come in 2030; 1.4billion
Society people.
Decreasing Working‐age Population ・ But that of working-age
population already peaked in
million people 2010.
2,000 100%
1,800 Peak of working‐age 90%
1,600 population 80%
1,400 70%
% of working‐age population [RHS]
1,200 60%
1,000 50%
800 40%
600 30%
400 20%
200 10%
‐ 0%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
age 15‐59 (working‐age population) age 0‐14 age over 60
Source: World Population Prospects, UN, 2015・Ending one-child policy was too late
to stop decreasing working-age
China’s Age Pyramid to 2050 population.
・Many people hesitate to have the 2 nd
child because of weak social welfare.
Age The year
of birthCu Refinery Capacity in China ・Cu Refinery capacity in
China expands to
kt
11million ton in 2018
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
25
source: CRUSummary 21 • JOGMEC is a governmental agency seeking to stable supplies of natural resources for Japan. • The impact of China’s growth in metal consumption affect to metal market. • Economic tie between Japan and China is very strong, China’s economic and social change would give effect on Japan’s material industry. • Mine development takes 10 – 15 years, we should imagine future economy/society in the world in order to keep stable supply of metals.
26
Thank you for your attention!!
Yoshihiro Kojima
Kojima‐yoshihiro@jogmec.go.jpYou can also read
