Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...

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Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Growth Ambition for the Future | 1

Investing in
Belfast’s
Future
A Real Estate Research Report
An overview and analysis of Belfast’s growth
and development between 2015 and 2020
and the city’s future outlook.
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                          Growth Ambition for the Future | 2

Introduction

                                               Renewed Ambition is a joint public       The first is a detailed market          asset containing invaluable insights
                                               and private sector-led initiative        insights analysis to understand         and information which many
                                               which aims to shape how we               the performance of the real estate      international investors, banks and
                                               reimagine the future of our city         market in Belfast over the last         property companies will be keenly
                                               and act together to deliver that         five years and also to identify the     interested in.
                                               ambition in the months and years         opportunity that lies ahead.
                                               ahead.                                                                           I hope all the partners involved in
                                                                                        In January 2021, CBRE NI was            Renewed Ambition will find this
                                               Over the last 12 months, Renewed         appointed to carry out the research     research acts as a useful and
                                               Ambition has delivered an intensive      and we are pleased to present their     insightful tool when having those
                                               collaborative programme across five      market insights, based on their view    all-important conversations with
                                               key pillars: a series of events and      of the commercial real estate market.   investors and key stakeholders.
                                               webinars to shape the conversation
                                               about the city and engage with           A second piece of research is           We look forward to strong recovery
                                               the investment community; a              also underway which will assess         and growth in our re-energised
                                               stakeholder engagement strategy; a       the social impact of real estate        capital city, Belfast, and across the
                                               research pillar; PR, communications      investment in the city. We look         wider region in the months ahead.
                                               and media engagement and, finally,       forward to sharing that too in the
                                               a repository of relevant information     coming months.
                                               for sponsors to access through the
                                               Invest in Belfast website.               On behalf of the Renewed Ambition
                                                                                        Taskforce, I would like to thank all
                                               As part of the research pillar, it was   those who have been involved in
                                               agreed we would commission two           shaping this document. Collectively,
                                               pieces of research.                      we have developed a new research

                                                                                                                                Joe O’Neill
                                                                                                                                Chair, Renewed Ambition
                                                                                                                                Chief Executive, Belfast Harbour
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                       Growth Ambition for the Future | 3

Contents

01    Executive summary                                       04
02    Reasons to invest                                       07
03    Northern Ireland overview                               11
04    Belfast in the context of UK & Ireland                  14
05    The Belfast Region                                      21
06    Real estate market performance & outlook                29
      6A Investment market                                    30
      6B Office market                                        35
      6C Retail market                                        42
      6D Industrial market                                    48
      6E Hotel & leisure market                               53
      6F Multifamily residential market                       57
      6G Purpose-Built Student Accommodation                  65
07    UK & Ireland cities: commercial real estate summaries   71
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast         Growth Ambition for the Future | 4

01                                             Executive
                                               summary
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                 Growth Ambition for the Future | 5

Executive summary

                                               Belfast is a city with a passion             economy ecosystem. A total of 44%          the winners who will emerge the
                                               for progress. It is the energetic,           of new jobs are in the tech sector and     strongest and Belfast has it in
Belfast is a city full of ambition,            youthful and flourishing regional            it is listed among the world top 10        abundance.
optimism, and above all                        capital of Northern Ireland and the          locations of the future for technology
                                               second-largest city on the island of         investment, just behind London and         Our report identifies and examines a
opportunity. As a talented,                    Ireland.                                     Singapore. It is a leading European        range of opportunities:
competitive and connected                                                                   city for investment from US-based
                                               It is a city celebrated for its industrial   cyber security firms, as well as being     The Belfast Region City Deal is
city, we’re the second fastest                 leadership.                                  a strategic sister city to Boston and      one of the most important recent
growing knowledge economy                                                                   Nashville, building on its international   achievements – a £1 billion co-
in the UK, with excellent digital              In engineering, it has enjoyed world
                                               renown in areas such as shipbuilding
                                                                                            connections, heritage and reputation.      investment package that is vital
                                                                                                                                       for growth. It is estimated that
infrastructure and thriving                    and aircraft manufacture. And,               What does all this mean for our            the deal will create up to 20,000
clusters of high growth                        as the largest global producer of
                                               linen, it earned the unofficial title
                                                                                            future? This report, commissioned
                                                                                            by Renewed Ambition, analyses the
                                                                                                                                       new and better jobs, delivering a
                                                                                                                                       10-year programme to unlock new
companies. It’s no wonder that                 ‘Linenopolis’.                               opportunities for continued growth         innovations and R&D pathways whilst
80% of businesses that locate in                                                            and investment. It focuses on the          ushering in a new era of inclusive
                                               Those heady days of industrial               real estate market, examining current      economic growth. Our report
Belfast choose to re-invest.                   prowess left their ingenious mark            levels of performance and looking          examines that potential in detail.
                                               on the city’s people. They are               ahead.
                                               passionate about innovation; it is in                                                   We have a young and highly
                                               their DNA and has earned the city            However, no report of this kind can        educated population, essential to
                                               a new unofficial title – ‘Techopolis’.       ignore today’s great challenges.           developing the tech sector and
                                               Now it is spearheading progress in           Progress will be influenced by the         fuelling the demand for talent from
                                               other fields – like cancer research,         social and economic effects of             global companies locating into
                                               health sciences, food security, data         Covid-19 and the continuing impact         the region, as well as fast-growing
                                               analytics, cyber security – and in the       of Brexit. Belfast is a city which has     indigenous businesses.
                                               engineering of tomorrow.                     faced uncertainty before, tackling
                                                                                            difficulties which few other cities        Our city provides the unique benefit
                                               Belfast has become a world-leading           have endured and overcoming them           of dual market access to the UK and
                                               hub of discovery in digital technology,      to emerge renewed and confident. In        EU. For companies looking to serve
                                               creating a thriving knowledge                times of turmoil, resilience defines       the UK and EU markets we are the
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                          Growth Ambition for the Future | 6

Executive summary continued

ideal location. Consequently, the          for new student accommodation              by skills availability, competitive      sale known as Project Dragonglass)                      Robert Ditty
real estate market is experiencing a       continues to increase and at a pace        operating costs and our advanced         in 2018; Project Trident (the Tifco                     Investment Director
positive impact with an upswing in         far greater than the current supply        telecoms infrastructure.                 Hotel Platform) to Apollo Global                        CBRE NI
interest right across the region.          can offer.                                                                          Management, including the
                                                                                      Since 2015, there have been over         Travelodge Hotels in Belfast and                        Gavin Elliott
The growth of online retailing and the     Many of these students will graduate       £343.5m of office investment deals       Derry; Dalata Hotel Group buying 22                     Investment Director
escalation of last mile delivery, with a   with the skills Belfast needs and will     in Belfast, most notably the sale        Ormeau Avenue for £18.5m and the                        CBRE NI
consequent requirement for further         stay to live and work here. Belfast City   of Merchant Square for £87m, the         £17m spent by Ampleforth Group to
space, is leading to significant           Council has set an ambitious target        largest such sale in Northern Ireland,   buy the Fitzwilliam Hotel.
demand for logistics and industrial        of attracting 66,000 people to live        which reflected a yield of 5.2%.
development, increasing the need for       and work in the city and also 31,600       There has also been £34.47m worth        Going forward, the city has strong
further space.                             additional homes across Belfast by         of industrial investment, including      fundamentals in place to support
                                           2035.                                      Amazon’s Last Mile distribution hub      an upsurge in Build-to-Rent (BTR)
The office market has been the city’s                                                 at Channel Commercial Park, sold         with a major opportunity for first-
strongest-performing sector since          This is a city which will be home to       to UBS for £27.12m in 2020, at a         mover advantage. Whilst there
2015. An imbalance in supply and           the professionals of tomorrow. It          reported yield of 5.5%.                  aren’t any major BTR developments
demand, coupled with high levels           is also a compact city, easy to get                                                 under construction at this time,
of foreign direct investment, means        around and an attractive place in          The hotel sector has been badly          several investors and developers are
that the development pipeline will         which to live, where the journey to        hit by the pandemic. Pre-Covid,          progressing plans with a number of
continue to expand over the next           the office is not an arduous one and       occupancy was approaching 72%            schemes currently progressing at
few years. Despite the challenge           the countryside and coast are just         with a RevPar of £57.25 and an           planning.
of Covid, our unique location and          minutes away.                              Average Daily Rate of £78.201.
business environment remained                                                         The market will benefit from the         Belfast is alive with entrepreneurial
a strong attractor for international       We also assess the city’s unique           gradual easing of restrictions, the      spirit, ambition and optimism. This
companies with 2020 and 2021 to            geographical advantages and                ambitious tourism and cultural           report projects a picture of great
date seeing several new FDI entrants       transport connections with Dublin,         strategy outlined by Belfast City        opportunity, unique to Belfast and
with significant job announcements         GB and Europe. Belfast has become          Council and the investment in            unlike any other city in the UK. A
land in the city.                          one of Ireland’s premier business          new tourism attractions funded           picture of a city poised for an exciting
                                           cities with the largest employed           through the Belfast Region City          economic future with untapped
Our universities and colleges have         population in Northern Ireland. It         Deal. Transactions since 2015 have       investment opportunities.
30,240 full-time students who study        enjoys major success in securing           included the sale of the Hilton
and live within the city. The demand       foreign direct investment, attracted       Belfast (part of a wider portfolio       (Source: STR. 2021 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.)
                                                                                                                               1
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast         Growth Ambition for the Future | 7

02                                             Reasons
                                               to invest
Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                  Growth Ambition for the Future | 8

Uniquely
positioned
for growth
“ Belfast will continue on its journey of attracting
  investment to develop the infrastructure needed to
  support our city’s ambitious economic and social plans.

 Powered by its young, vibrant and highly-educated
 workforce and home to a growing raft of inward investors
 and fast-growing indigenous companies, Belfast is primed
 for an exciting economic future, focused on sustainability
 and inclusive growth.

 Add to that the city’s access to both UK and European
 markets – a factor which is catching the attention of
 investors from across the world – the city’s growth
 potential is immense.”

Suzanne Wylie
Chief Executive
Belfast City Council
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                              Growth Ambition for the Future | 9

Reasons to invest

THE PEOPLE                                                     ICT INFRASTRUCTURE                                              CONNECTIVITY
There is a highly-educated population with over 40%            Northern Ireland is one of the best connected regions in        Northern Ireland is a compact region with strong
of residents educated to NVQ level 4 or above. Belfast         Europe. It has the highest availability of fibre broadband      connectivity. It benefits from two airports connecting with
benefits from two world-class universities with Ulster         in the UK at 95%, projected to increase to 99% in the near      GB, Europe and further afield. London is 1 hour by plane,
University’s new campus, due to open towards the end           future. Project Kelvin, the transatlantic fibre optic network   Dublin 1 hour 30 minutes by car and Scotland 2 hours
of 2021, bringing 15,000 students and staff into the city      which links Europe to the US, has its first connecting hub      30 minutes by ferry. In addition the region has a well-
centre. 26% of the population is aged between 16-34            in Europe on Northern Ireland’s north coast. This allows        connected motorway network and the majority of large
which is one of the youngest populations in Europe.            Northern Ireland based servers to send data to the US           cities and towns in the wider area can be accessed within
                                                               quicker than any other part of Europe.                          15 to 45 minutes’ drive. There is extensive investment
                                                                                                                               in the transport infrastructure such as the new Belfast
                                                                                                                               Rapid Transit System and the new transport hub in
                                                                                                                               Belfast city centre, due to open in 2025, will further
                                                                                                                               improve connectivity.

QUALITY OF LIFE                                                THE ECONOMY                                                     DUAL MARKET ACCESS
Belfast has a lot to offer. Excellent education, healthcare,   Belfast has a high GDP per capita of £44,300. GDP               The region is unique in having dual market access within
affordable housing, quality public facilities and amenities    growth for 2021 is estimated at 4.9% which is ahead of          the UK and European markets. This has the potential to
provide the city and its residents with a very high quality    the UK average. The region is also creating jobs at a faster    create unparalleled opportunities and advantages in a
of life. Glassdoor named Belfast as one of the top cities in   rate than the UK, led by the tech sector with 44% of jobs       range of areas including manufacturing, life sciences and
the UK in which to work and live.                              created, compared to a UK average of 12%.                       financial and professional services.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                         Growth Ambition for the Future | 10

Reasons to invest

BELFAST REGION CITY DEAL                                     OFFICE SECTOR                                                 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR
The Belfast Region City Deal is a £1 billion co-investment   This continues to be one of the best performing sectors       This sector is expected to see huge growth over the
package. The UK Government has contributed £350m,            in Northern Ireland. Rents are very competitive at £23.00     next five years with no speculative schemes on site and
the NI Executive is expected to add at least a further       psf and are a significant discount when compared to           nearly 2 million sq ft of unfulfilled requirements. Current
£350m and six councils and two universities will             Dublin (€60.00 psf), Cork (€32.50 psf), Edinburgh (£36.00     rents have risen considerably in the last few years but
contribute over £150m. Direct investment from the            psf), Glasgow (£32.50 psf), Bristol (£37.00 psf), Leeds       are still off a low base of £4.50 psf compared to Dublin
private sector will take the overall package to over £1bn.   (£32.00 psf), Manchester (£37.50 psf), Birmingham             (€10.50 psf), Cork (€8.50 psf), Edinburgh (£9.50 psf),
The deal’s target is the creation of up to 20,000 new and    (£37.00 psf) and Liverpool (£25.00 psf). Office yields at     Glasgow (£8.75 psf), Bristol (£7.50 psf), Leeds (£6.75
better jobs in a 10-year programme of economic growth,       5.75% offer are also at a discount in comparison to the UK    psf), Manchester (£6.95 psf), Birmingham (£7.75 psf) and
including an increase of £470m GVA.                          (4.75%) and Dublin (4.00%). We expect there will be future    Liverpool (£6.50 psf). We expect strong rental growth
                                                             yield compression and rental growth in this sector.           as prime supply is very limited and will reach levels that
                                                                                                                           make speculative development possible. Industrial yields
                                                                                                                           at 5.75% offer are also discounted from those in the UK
                                                                                                                           (4.00%) and Dublin (4.75%).

RETAIL SECTOR                                                MULTIFAMILY SECTOR                                            LOW CARBON
Belfast retail has faced a succession of major challenges,   There is a huge opportunity in this sector with strong        Belfast City Council has established a Resilience and
including the shutdown caused by Covid. We believe it        demand and affordable levels of rent. Belfast City Council    Sustainability Board with an ambition to make the
will begin to pick up towards the end of 2021, due to the    is strongly promoting city centre living. This will involve   transition to a low-carbon economy in a generation. This
easing of restrictions and driven by further growth in       significant investment from the private sector and will       is seen as a key objective of local government which will
tourism, increased city centre living and cross-border       be further driven by growth in the commercial property        help future-proof the city and wider region.
shopping.                                                    sectors.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast        Growth Ambition for the Future | 11

03                                             Northern
                                               Ireland
                                               overview
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                   Growth Ambition for the Future | 12

Flight time map

                                                               Glasgow
  North                                                        30mins                                                            Europe
  America

                                               Belfast

                                                                                    Amsterdam
                                                   Dublin                           1 hour 35 mins

                                                            London                                       Berlin
                                                            1 hour                                       2 hours

                                  New York                                        Brussels
                                  7 hours                                         1 hour 30 mins
                                                                 Paris
                                                                 1 hour 45 mins

                                                                              Milan
                                                                              2 hours 30 mins

                                                                     Barcelona                       Rome
                                                                     2 hours 30 mins                 3 hours
                                                   Madrid
                                                   2 hours 30 mins
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                          Growth Ambition for the Future | 13

Northern Ireland snapshot

Demographics                                      Population
                                                                          26%                0.64%                 5.7%              69.4%
                                                 1.88m                  People aged
                                                                       between 16-34.
                                                                                               Highest
                                                                                              population
                                                                                                                 second highest
                                                                                                                    predicted
                                                                                                                                      Employment
                                                                                                                                    rate of between
                                               28% of population
                                               of Ireland and 3%     One of the youngest     growth in the      population growth     people aged
                                                    of the UK           populations            UK 2019           over the next 25   16-64 years old
                                                                          in Europe                              years in the UK

Economy
                                                   42%                   £47K                55.3%                 3.2%               4.9%
                                                Amount of               GVA per head          Business           Growth in the        Estimated
                                           residents educated                                  start up         average national     GDP growth
                                               to 3rd level                                  survival rate      salary, £28,000        for 2021
                                           education or above

Job Creation
                                                   44%                     9%                  10%
                                                    Tech jobs           Across all jobs    Office based jobs
                                               (vs. 12% in the UK)    (vs. 6% in the UK)   (vs. 9% in the UK)

Geography                                       2HR 15                 1HR 30                  1HR               1HR 50
                                                Ferry crossing           Drive time           Flight time           Belfast to
                                                 to Scotland             to Dublin            to London            Dublin train
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast            Growth Ambition for the Future | 14

04                                             Belfast in the
                                               context of
                                               UK & Ireland
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                      Growth Ambition for the Future | 15

                                           Belfast is the largest city in Northern Ireland and the second largest on the
                                           island of Ireland after Dublin. Named amongst the top 10 best places on the
                                           planet to visit over the next decade by Big Travel 7, the city has flourished in

Belfast                                    recent years and is a top destination for commerce, education and tourism
                                           both in the UK and on the island of Ireland.

• The city is alive with                   • Belfast is also home to a rapidly        the UK corporate market. And
  entrepreneurial spirit and capital         growing fintech industry and is          with an average home value of
  investment is evident everywhere.          recognised as a world-leading hub        £159,625 and median base salary
  Construction and development               for cybersecurity. fDi Intelligence      of £28,000, Belfast has emerged
  remain at the forefront of the city’s      ranked Belfast as 3rd globally for       as a highly desirable place in          One of the world’s              100% 4G broadband
  onward projection.                         “Fintech Locations of the Future         which to live. Northern Ireland is      top destinations for            coverage in
                                             2020”. Global software companies         the top performing UK region for        fintech.                        Belfast, the first in
• From innovation in the legal               include Allstate, Citi and Rapid7.       GCSEs per head of population and                                        Europe. Voted “best
  sector to ground-breaking cancer                                                    over 40% of Belfast’s near 630K                                         city for tech” by
  research, Belfast can boast global       • Belfast has a business start-up          regional catchment population                                           Zoopla.
  research centres of excellence and         survival rate of 55.3%, one of the       are educated to NVQ level or
  supporting high growth clusters. It        best rates in Europe.                    above. Its two universities, Ulster     5th best city in the UK
  is the leading city in Europe for new                                               University and Queen’s University       for quality of lifestyle.
  software development and is home         • There are over 895 international         Belfast, have approximately 50,000
  to global businesses in fintech,           companies based in Belfast,              students, many of whom stay in                                          1.5 million - the
  data analytics and encryption,             responsible for the employment of        Belfast once they have graduated.                                       amount of overnight
  access control systems,                    some 98,000 people.                                                                                              trips per year that
  and intelligent surveillance                                                      • Belfast is projected to have the        24.6 million tonnes             contribute some £334
  technologies. It has a film industry     • International recruitment firm           second highest population growth        of goods and 1.5                million to the economy
  which has expanded in scope                Glassdoor recently named                 in the UK over the next 25 years (at    million passengers              (pre-Covid).
  and reputation. As the place that          Belfast as one of the top cities         around 5.7%). The past five years       passed through Belfast
  produced Game of Thrones, it is            in the UK in which to live and           have also witnessed more people         Harbour in 2019.
  firmly on the global tourist trail.        work – representing real value           moving to Belfast than leaving, as
  Growth is likely to continue for the       for money for both employer              net migration increases. 2019’s
  foreseeable future with Belfast            and employee. Belfast has                figure of 4,100 was the highest in                                      Two well-renowned
  Harbour planning to invest a further       significantly lesser costs attached      well over 10 years.                                                     universities with over
  £45m to quadruple the size of their        to labour, commercial rents                                                                                      50,000 students
  current studios.                           and tax compared to the rest of                                                                                  studying in Belfast.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                            Growth Ambition for the Future | 16

Belfast

• Belfast is a young city and has one                                           • Approx. 2.2m people visit Northern
  of the youngest populations in                                                  Ireland every year, according to
  Europe. Approximately 26% of the                                                research from Tourism Ireland. This
  population are aged between 16-                                                 is worth over £1bn to the economy.
  34.
                                                                                • Belfast was the first city in Europe
• Enhanced connectivity – the                                                     to achieve 100% broadband
  Belfast Rapid Transit System has                                                coverage and was also ranked the
  been a huge success since it                                                    best city in the UK for tech lovers
  launched in 2018. Weavers Cross                                                 by Zoopla. Urban innovation is at
  transport hub will further improve                                              the core of the city.
  accessibility across Northern
  Ireland and into the Republic of                                              • Through its Smart Belfast
  Ireland. Belfast is the 7th best                                                framework, Belfast has become a
  city in Europe for connectivity,                                                ‘living laboratory’ and is harnessing
  as awarded by fDi Intelligence.                                                 the city’s talent pool, creativity and
  Moreover, 24.6m tonnes of goods                                                 technical infrastructure to support
  and 1.5m passengers passed                                                      the city’s growth.
  through Belfast Harbour in 2019.

                                             Belfast Metropolitan Population Projection

            650,000

            640,000

            630,000
  Persons

            620,000

            610,000

            600,000 -

            590,000 -

            580,000 -
                        2010

                               2011

                                      2012

                                             2013

                                                    2014

                                                           2015

                                                                  2016

                                                                         2017

                                                                                2018

                                                                                       2019

                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                     2021

                                                                                                            2022

                                                                                                                   2023

                                                                                                                          2024

                                                                                                                                 2025

Source: Oxford Economics
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                       Growth Ambition for the Future | 17

The investor opportunity
across the Belfast Region
The Brexit advantage for the Belfast Region

Northern Ireland has the only UK land border with the
European Union. This provides some unique competitive
advantages:
• Northern Ireland has retained tariff-    • These benefits will provide a
  free access to the European Union.         positive boost for Northern Ireland
                                             based companies to show a further
• Northern Ireland remains in the            competitive advantage when
  EU’s single market for goods.              considering locating or expanding.
                                             They already benefit from a
• Dual market access to both the UK          highly skilled labour pool, lower
  and EU means the Belfast Region            occupational costs and business
  can become a gateway for the sale          friendly environment.
  of goods into both markets.

• Northern Ireland is the only region
  free from customs declarations,
  rules or origin certificates and non
  tariff barriers on the sale of goods
  to both the UK and EU.

“ Selling something from Northern Ireland into Great
  Britain? There are zero issues. There is no paperwork or
  exit declarations needed”.
 Steve Harper
 Executive Director of International Business
 Invest Northern Ireland
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                             Growth Ambition for the Future | 18

A unique real estate investment prospect

Belfast’s commercial property              • Belfast has witnessed record             • The £100m Northern Ireland              Belfast is UK’s most important regional FDI hub
market is highly competitive and             levels of office, hotel and student        Investment Fund, targeted                Percentage of total regional FDI projects for leading UK cities, 2018-2019
represents real value for money.             accommodation take-up since                at stimulating development
                                                                                                                                 Belfast
Its Grade A office rents are some            2015.                                      throughout Northern Ireland, and                                                                                      79

                                                                                                                                 Bristol                                                       50
of the most affordable in both the                                                      the Belfast City Centre Investment       Birmingham                                               47
UK and ROI. At present, there is a         • Office take-up has averaged                Fund, aimed at stimulating further       Manchester                                              45
large supply-demand imbalance,               482,322 sq ft per annum with               regeneration in the city centre, will    Cardiff                                            42

particularly in office, industrial and       Grade A rents having grown from            provide welcome support for the          Leeds                                        34

residential sectors.                         £15.00 psf in 2015 to £23.00 psf in        property sector as it navigates its      Cambridge                               25

                                             2021.                                      way forward.                             Glasgow                            23

                                                                                                                                 Edinburgh                          22

                                                                                                                                 Reading                       17
                                           • fDi Intelligence ranked Belfast as       • The impact of Covid-19 has hit           Aberdeen                    15
                                             best small city in the world for           real estate trends with the growth
                                                                                                                                 (Source: EY UK Attractiveness Survey 2020)
                                             business in 2018 and has named             of online retail and working from
                                             it as one of the top 25 cities in the      home. However both of these were
                                             world for attracting foreign direct        already well advanced in Northern       Belfast City Council has made it a priority for the city to
                                             investment. 71% of investors in            Ireland so Belfast is in a strong       reduce its carbon footprint. Belfast’s Resilience Strategy
                                             Northern Ireland reinvest and we           position to bounce back quicker         sets out a total of 30 transformational programmes
                                             believe this number will only rise in      than most in 2021 and beyond.           to transition the city to an inclusive, zero-emissions,
                                             the following years.                                                               climate-resilient economy in a generation.
                                                                                      • Brexit has also presented a unique
                                           • The Belfast Region City Deal will          opportunity for CRE in Northern         The Resilience Strategy is the first time that individuals
                                             see a £1bn co-investment package           Ireland, with the country now           and organisations have worked together to identify the
                                             for the wider city region. It is hoped     having a foot in both the EU and        shocks and stresses which make Belfast more vulnerable
                                             the deal will create up to 20,000          UK markets. Both the public and         and could threaten our economic, social or environmental
                                             new skilled jobs alongside a 10-year       private sector have a chance to         future.
                                             programme of economic growth,              maximise full potential of the dual
                                             including an increase of £470m             access market.                          Belfast City Council has set 30 foundational programmes
                                             Gross Value Added (GVA).                                                           to achieve decade-long interventions which will have a
                                                                                                                                positive impact, at scale, across the city to help achieve
                                                                                                                                their resilience goal.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                               Growth Ambition for the Future | 19

Belfast

2020 Total Investment Volume:              2020 at a Glance                               Belfast’s USP                                  Recent Deals
£57.04 million                             Investment activity during H2 was              Belfast continues to have one of               Merchant Square,                           Channel Commercial
Number of Deals: 7                         again limited due to challenges                the most unique markets in the UK.             March 2021                                 Park, October 2020
                                           presented by Covid-19, particularly            The city benefits from having two
                                           investors’ ability to inspect properties       well-renowned universities and an
                                           and undertake due diligence. The               excellent primary and secondary
                                           investment spend over the second               school system. Belfast has built a
                                           half of the year across all sectors in         strong global reputation for being a
                                           Northern Ireland totalled £57.3m,              market leader in a number of sectors
                                           bringing the 2020 yearly investment            including cybersecurity, fintech and
                                           total spend to £136m, a decrease of            film production. The city also benefits
                                           36% from 2019. Office, industrial and          from having one of the lowest                  Area: 240,204 sq ft                        Area: 99,338 sq ft
                                           supermarket yields have remained               occupational and operational costs in          Notable Tenants: PwC                       Notable Tenants: Amazon
                                           stable over the year. However, we              the UK as well as access to best-in-           Lease Term: WAULT c.9.88 Yrs               Lease Term: WAULT c.10 Yrs
                                           have seen a considerable softening             class ICT infrastructure. We believe           Rent pa: £4,850,000                        Rent pa: £1,590,000
Prime Office Yield                         of yields in the retail sector, primarily      that Belfast is uniquely positioned            Price: £87m                                Price: £27.12m
5.75%                                      driven by the effects of Covid-19 and          following Brexit to benefit from               NIY: 5.20%                                 NIY: 5.5%
                                           ongoing structural changes in the              having dual access to the UK and EU            Purchaser: Albilad Capital                 Purchaser: UBS Asset Management
                                           sector.                                        markets.
                                                                                                                                         Belfast Investment Volumes 2015 – 2020

                                                                                                                                         250
                                           Investor Type by volume (£m) Since 2015
Prime Industrial Yield
                                                          75.16                                                                          200
5.75%
                                                                                            NI Investor
                                                                                                                                         150
                                               113.88                            246.40

                                                                                                                                    £m
                                                                                            GB Prop Co
                                                                                                                                         100
                                                                                            ROI Investor

                                                                                            International Investor                       50
Prime Retail Yield
                                                                                            Owner Occupier
7.5%                                             139.40
                                                                                                                                         0
                                                                            92.81           Institutional                                       2015       2016         2017          2018       2019          2020
                                                                  49.57                                                                                    Industrial   Mixed Use      Office   Other     Retail
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                            Growth Ambition for the Future | 20

UK & Ireland investment volumes for 2020

In comparison to other regional
                                                                2020 Investment   Investment        Prime          Prime        Prime          Prime         Prime         Prime Retail
cities, Belfast offers significant                              Volumes           Volumes 5yr-      Office Yield   Industrial   Retail Yield   Office        Industrial    Rents (PSF
headroom for growth and value                                                     Average           (%)            Yield (%)    (%)            Rents (PSF)   Rents (PSF)   ZA)
for money. As the development
pipeline across the various
                                               Belfast          £57.04 million    £113.10 million   5.75%          5.75%        7.50%          £23.00        £4.50         £125
sectors increases, we expect
that transactional volumes will
                                               UK Key Markets   £3.38 billion     £5.26 billion     4.75%          4.00%        5.25%          -             -             -
also increase and lead to yield
compression driven by strong
                                               Birmingham       £859.07 million   £1.32 billion     4.75%          4.25%        6.75%          £37.00        £7.75         £190
investment fundamentals.

                                               Bristol          £669.05 million   £610.72 million   4.75%          4.35%        9.75%          £37.00        £7.50         £76.50

                                               Edinburgh        £667.80 million   £904.12 million   4.50%          4.50%        6.00%          £36.00        £9.50         £175

                                               Glasgow          £250.61 million   £713.08 million   5.25%          4.50%        6.00%          £32.50        £8.75         £229.50

                                               Leeds            £348.96 million   £511.30 million   5.00%          4.75%        6.25%          £32.00        £6.75         £191.25

                                               Liverpool        £81.75 million    £327.13 million   6.75%          4.50%        5.80%          £25.00        £6.50         £198.90

                                               Manchester       £2.17 billion     £1.89 billion     4.75%          4.00%        6.50%          £37.50        £6.95         £221.85

                                               Dublin           €3.2 billion      €3.4 billion      4.00%          4.75%        5.50%          €60.00        €10.50         -

                                               Cork             €27.2 million     €102.7 million    5.50%          6.50%        7.50%          €32.50        €8.50          €180

                                           Source: CBRE
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast         Growth Ambition for the Future | 21

05                                             The
                                               Belfast
                                               Region
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                               Growth Ambition for the Future | 22

The investor opportunity
across the Belfast Region
In addition to Belfast City                Belfast Region Industrial & Logistics
Council, the wider Belfast Region
encompasses Antrim and                     The industrial and logistics sector has been the best performing over the past five years in Great Britain. Belfast and
Newtownabbey Borough Council,              the wider region are only beginning to see significant investment and occupier interest over the past 12 months and we
Ards and North Down Borough                believe there is huge opportunity for first mover advantage in the sector.
Council, Lisburn and Castlereagh
City Council, Mid and East Antrim          • Changing behaviours in the retail         • The pandemic has accelerated            • There are a number of Ireland wide
Borough Council and Newry, Mourne            sector to online has resulted in            changes that were already                 logistics requirements which could
and Down District Council.                   significant developer and investor          underway as many temporary                be in part a result of lack of space
                                             activity in the industrial and              behaviours become more                    and pricing on the greater Dublin
                                             logistics sectors across Europe.            permanent. The growth of online           area.
The Belfast Region is a compelling                                                       retailing has helped support the
investment proposition, perfectly          • Belfast and the wider region has            need for further logistics space.
positioned post-Brexit, with unique          not witnessed any speculative               Belfast and the wider region offer
strengths including the competitive          activity in the Industrial or Logistics     opportunities for both investors
advantage of access to EU and                sectors since 2007.                         and occupiers seeking lands zoned
GB markets and connections to                                                            for logistics space.
international markets such as the          • Since Q4 2020, investor enquiries
US.                                          for logistics have increased              • CBRE is currently tracking
                                             significantly.                              occupier requirements for in
                                                                                         excess of 1.9 million sq ft Logistics
                                           • Logistics & Industrial development          accommodation throughout
                                             represents one of the largest               Northern Ireland. There is currently
                                             potential growth sectors for the            no supply to meet this demand.
                                             Belfast Region.                             Equally there are very limited new
                                                                                         build opportunities for existing
                                                                                         businesses to grow into and there
                                                                                         is a need for smaller schemes to
                                                                                         meet this need.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                    Growth Ambition for the Future | 23

The investor opportunity
across the Belfast Region
Development Opportunities across the Belfast Region
• The Belfast Region Investment            • Across the partner councils,
                                             a number of local and regional

                                                                                   Belfast
  Guide identifies a number of
  strategic opportunity sites                projects have been selected to
  potentially available for investment.      help transform and regenerate

                                                                                   Region
                                             the wider region.
• The strategic location on the
  eastern economic corridor of             • Investment has been secured to
  Ireland makes it one of the most           deliver some of these flagship
  industrious and ambitious regions          projects but many more                Investment Guide
  and best placed to take advantage          opportunities are available to be
  of the cross border location,              realised across the Belfast Region.
  Brexit advantages and locational
  advantages into the UK and EU.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                             Growth Ambition for the Future | 24

Who has invested in the Belfast Region?

Overview:                                                                        Address                                            Purchaser                    Price           Sector       Purchaser
Between 2015 - 2020 investor activity in the Belfast                                                                                                                                          Type
Region (excluding Belfast City and the Greater
Belfast Area) totalled £428.34m. A selection of                                  Valley Retail Park, Newtownabbey                   AEW Europe                   £7,150,000      Retail       Institutional
Belfast Region deals are detailed below.
                                                                                 Bloomfield Shopping Centre & Retail Park, Bangor   Tristian Capital Partners    £54,150,000     Retail       Institutional

                                                                                 The Boulevard, Banbridge                           Tristian Capital Partners    £11,000,000     Retail       Institutional
Belfast Investment by Sector 2015 – 2020
                                                                                 The Junction, Antrim                               Tristian Capital Partners    £21,795,000     Retail       Institutional
                            2%
                  10%
             1%                                                                  Highfield Retail Park, Craigavon                   Private Local                £14,250,000     Retail       Institutional
                                                                Retail
                                                                                 Damolly Retail Park, Newry                         MJM                          £30,750,000     Retail       Private Local
                                                                Office
                                                                                 Tower Centre, Ballymena                            Private Local                £6,500,000      Retail       Private Local
                                                                Industrial

                                                                Other            Curry’s / PC World, Lisburn                        Aberdeen Asset Management    £13,925,000     Retail       Institutional

                                                                                 Tesco Extra, Newry                                 Investec                     £27,250,000     Retail       Institutional

                                             86%                                 Castlebawn Retail Park, Newtownards                Home Bargains                £7,200,000      Retail       Owner Occupier

                                                                                 Down Retail Park, Downpatrick                      Comer Group                  £11,000,000     Retail       PropCo
Belfast Investor Type 2015 – 2020
                                                                                 Bow Street Mall, Lisburn                           Comer Brothers               £12,500,000     Retail       PropCo
                      10%
                                               21%                               Antrim Business Park, Antrim                       UK Private                   £12,500,000     Industrial   PropCo
                                                                Private Local
                                                                                 Clandeboye Retail Park, Bangor                     Harry Corry Pension Scheme   £8,700,000      Retail       Private Local
                                                                Owner Occupier
                                                       3%
                                                                Institutional    Sprucefield Retail Park, Lisburn                   NewRiver Retail              £40,000,000     Retail       Institutional

                                                                PropCo           Abbey Retail Park, Newtownabbey                    Slate AM                     £33,000,000     Retail       Institutional

        65%                                                                      Royal Mail, Mallusk                                Unknown                      £30,000,000     Industrial   Private Local

                                                                                 Curry’s / PC World, Sprucefield                    Private Local                £8,000,000      Retail       Private Local

Statistics exclude Belfast City and the Greater Belfast Area.
Source: CBRE.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                  Growth Ambition for the Future | 25

The Belfast Region City Deal

                                               What will it deliver?                        3. Competitive Operating Costs
                                                                                            • Salary costs are lower than other regions
What is it?                                    The Belfast Region City Deal will deliver
                                                                                              of the UK and up to 30% lower than
The Belfast Region City Deal is a              growth in the city regions economy with
                                                                                              London, Dublin and Paris.
                                               a 10 year programme to increase GVA by
collaboration between the Belfast              £470m and creating up to 20,000 new and
                                                                                            • Operating costs are lower than the rest of       £1 billion
                                                                                              the UK and Europe (FDI benchmarking).
Region partner councils, Queen’s               better jobs, accessible to people from all                                                      value of the Belfast
                                                                                            • Prime office rents are amongst the lowest        Region City Deal
University Belfast, Ulster University and      communities.
                                                                                              in Europe and are lower than many other
the regional Further Education Colleges        The Belfast Region City Deal partners
                                                                                              UK regional locations and Dublin.
alongside NI and UK Governments.               have agreed four investment pillars:
                                                                                            • The overall tax burden in Northern Ireland
                                                                                              is the lowest of all the major European
Partners have agreed an integrated             • Infrastructure                               economies.
programme to transform the region’s            • Tourism and Regeneration                                                                      £470 million
economy. The £1 billion co-investment          • Innovation and Digital                     4. Digital Connectivity                            planned increase
package will seek to address a number          • Employment and Skills                      • Northern Ireland was the first region            in GVA
                                                                                              in Europe to achieve 100% broadband
of key barriers to growth.                     What are the advantages?                       coverage.
                                                                                            • Project Kelvin offers resilient and fast
                                               1. Excellent Transport Infrastructure
                                                                                              connectivity to North America.
                                               • Two airports offering daily scheduled
                                                  flights across UK, Europe and other
                                                                                            5. Highly Skilled & Talented Workforce
                                                  worldwide destinations.
                                                                                            • The Belfast Region provides access
                                               • Belfast Harbour is the second busiest
                                                                                              to over 1 million people. It generates
                                                  port on the island of Ireland.
                                                                                              approximately £47,000 GVA per head.
                                               • Motorway network linking all areas
                                                                                            • 61% of all jobs in Northern Ireland are
                                                  including easy access to Dublin and
                                                                                              based in the region.
                                                  the EU.

                                               2. Location
                                               • Easily accessible location.
                                                 London is an hour away by air and
                                                 Dublin is 90 minutes by car.
                                               • Northern Ireland is the only part of the
                                                 UK sharing a land border with the EU.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                              Growth Ambition for the Future | 26

Belfast Region City Deal – Projects

The following are a selection of
projects being progressed as part
of the Belfast Region City Deal.

                                           i4C Innovation Centre               Belfast Destination Hub
                                           St. Patrick’s Barracks, Ballymena   Belfast city centre

                                           Click here to read more.            Click here to read more.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                     Growth Ambition for the Future | 27

Belfast Region City Deal – Projects

The following are a selection of
projects being progressed as part
of the Belfast Region City Deal.

                                           Bangor Waterfront          Hillsborough
                                           Bangor                     Hillsborough

                                           Click here to read more.   Click here to read more.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                           Growth Ambition for the Future | 28

Belfast Region City Deal – Projects

The following are a selection of
projects being progressed as part
of the Belfast Region City Deal.

                                           Newry City Centre Regeneration   Advanced Manufacturing Innovation Centre (AMIC)
                                           Newry                            Belfast Region

                                           Click here to read more.         Click here to read more.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast            Growth Ambition for the Future | 29

06                                             Real estate
                                               market
                                               performance
                                               & outlook
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast          Growth Ambition for the Future | 30

06                                             Investment
A                                              market
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                        Growth Ambition for the Future | 31

Investment market

Overview:
The Belfast Commercial Real               As the second largest city on
Estate (CRE) investment market            the island of Ireland, it has huge
has traditionally been much               investment potential. Northern
smaller than in other major               Ireland and Belfast have a
                                                                                   On average, £132m                Property returns of           Averaged against the         71% of investors
UK cities, with over half of its          unique competitive advantage
                                                                                   of CRE investment                7.7% for Belfast in 2019,     3 main property asset        reinvest in Belfast.
investments since 2015 coming             as a consequence of Brexit, with
                                                                                   takes place in                   exceeding that of other       classes, yields equate
from domestic UK investors. This          arrangements eliminating tariffs for
                                                                                   Belfast each year.               UK nations.                   to 6.28%.
being said, what Belfast’s CRE            UK businesses trading with the EU.
market perhaps lacks in stature,          Northern Ireland firms will also avoid
it makes up for in value. Attractive      the need for new regulatory checks       Notable Belfast Investments
yields, positive rental growth,           because they will still be following
large public sector employment            EU single market rules. This              Address                                       Date Sold     Purchaser       Price           NIY          Sector
and a growing tech industry are           should attract new occupiers and
all reasons investors continue to         business seeking to benefit from
choose Belfast.                           its exceptional status, which in turn     Merchant Square                               Mar-21        International   £87,000,000     5.20%        Offices
                                          should be a positive boost for the
                                          Belfast CRE industry.                     Holywood Exchange                             Nov-20        GB Prop Co      £17,920,000     9.74%        Retail

                                                                                    Amazon, Channel Commercial Park               Oct-20        Institutional   £27,120,800     5.50%        Industrial
                                          Furthermore, given that no other UK
                                          country shares a border with the EU,      CastleCourt Shopping Centre                   Jul-17        International   £123,000,000    6.41%        Retail
                                          Belfast offers a gateway to Europe
                                          - less than a 90-minute drive to          John Bell House, Belfast                      –             NI Investor     £30,000,000     TBC          Other
                                          Dublin, a city that witnessed €3.2bn
                                          of CRE investment in 2020. Many           Metro Building, 6-9 Donegall Square South     Sep-18        NI Investor     £21,800,000     5.52%        Office
                                          commentators suggest that capital
                                                                                    NCP Car Park, Montgomery Street               Jun-18        Institutional   £18,040,000     4.27%        Other
                                          previously deployed into Dublin may
                                          be invested into Belfast in future        40/46 Donegall Place, Belfast                 Jun-18        International   £16,400,000     7.00%        Retail
                                          years as Belfast establishes itself as
                                          a portal of trade for the UK and EU.      Cleaver House, Donegall Place                 Sep-17        ROI Investor    £15,250,000     7.63%        Mixed Use

                                                                                    Obel 68                                       Aug-18        Institutional   £15,200,000     6.64%        Office

                                                                                   Source: CBRE.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                         Growth Ambition for the Future | 32

Investment market

Investment Volumes:                        However, there was some                    Type of Investor:                              Belfast Investment Volumes                                       Industrial
2020 Investment volumes across             encouraging news in 2020. Industrial       Unlike the rest of the UK, the market                                                                           Mixed Use
the market are down – 35% from the         properties had an exceptional              over the past six years continues to           250
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Office
2019 figure and 49% down on the five       year with £29.57m of industrial            be largely dominated by domestic
                                                                                                                                     200                                                              Other
year average, as investors are forced      investment sales, making it the            investors, with 34% of the market
to take stock and consider their           busiest for industrial investment          share being attributed to NI                   150                                                              Retail
options.                                   sales in well over six years.              investors. However, with 13% and 19%

                                                                                                                                £m
                                                                                      respectively, GB property companies            100

                                           Since 2015, £717m worth of CRE             and international investors continue           50
                                           stock has transacted between               to appreciate the value of the
                                           investors in Belfast. This equates         Northern Ireland market and are                0
                                           to 101 deals. The largest deal in this     still very much active across all                     2015         2016     2017        2018        2019        2020
                                           period was Wirefox’s purchase of           asset classes.
                                                                                                                                     Source: CBRE
                                           CastleCourt in July 2017, a deal that
                                           achieved a yield of some 6.41%. Other      The past couple of years has started
                                           large purchases included the £30m          to see a shift with more foreign
                                                                                                                                     UK Investment Volumes
                                           purchase of John Bell House student        money taking a look - and indeed
                                           accommodation, UBS’s purchase of           investing - in the Belfast CRE market.
                                           Amazon’s Last Mile Distribution Hub        With the expected growth in the                2500

                                           at Titanic Quarter and the sale of the     industrial and residential sectors, the        2000
                                           Metro Office Building in September         attention of foreign investment is
                                                                                                                                     1500
                                           2018 for £21.8m.                           likely to increase.

                                                                                                                                £m
                                                                                                                                     1000

                                           During March 2021, Merchant Square                                                        500
                                           sold to Albilad Capital for £87m,                                                         0
                                           reflecting an net initial yield of 5.20%                                                          2015         2016     2017        2018         2019       2020
                                           which is the largest office investment
                                           and strongest yield achieved in the                                                                      Belfast      Birmingham     Bistrol          Edinburgh

                                           Belfast market. This bodes well for                                                                      Glasgow      Leeds          Liverpool        Manchester
                                           the future of the office sector in
                                           the region.                                                                                                                                Source: CBRE/PropertyData
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                           Growth Ambition for the Future | 33

Investment market

Investment returns & yields:                       • Further encouragement in the
• At an all property level, Belfast’s                investment market can be taken
  total return was 1.4%. Belfast’s                   from Belfast property yields in
  office return was underpinned by                   2020 were able to hold stable,
  an income return of 7.5%. Belfast’s                with only retail yields softening.
  comparatively high overall income                  Averaged across the three main
  return of 7.1% continues to make                   asset classes, Belfast’s property
  the city a competitive property                    yields at the end of 2020 equated
  investment destination in a pan-                   to 6.3%, putting it on a par with
  European context.                                  Bristol (6.28%).

                       Belfast Investment Yields
    10

    9

    8

    7
%

    6                                                                              High Street
                                                                                   Shopping Centres
                                                                                   Retail Warehouses
    5
                                                                                   Supermarkets
                                                                                   Offices
                                                                                   Industrial
    4
         2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018 2019   2020   2021                             Merchant Square sold for £87m in March 2021, reflecting NIY of 5.2%
                                                                             Source: CBRE
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                             Growth Ambition for the Future | 34

Investment market

Prime yields at the end of 2020

                                               Belfast   UK Regional   Dublin
                                                         Cities
Retail
High Street Shops                              7.50%     5.25%         7.50%
Shopping Centres                               9.50%     7.00%         5.50%
Retail Warehouses (bulky)                      8.00%     6.50%         5.75%

Office                                         5.75%     4.75%         4.00%

Industrial                                     5.75%     4.50%         4.75%
(Estates)
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast            Growth Ambition for the Future | 35

06                                             Office
B                                              market
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                  Growth Ambition for the Future | 36

A resilient market

“ Rapid7 is committed to investing in the               “The growth of our Belfast office has been   “This move underlines the PwC Executive
  company’s global expansion, particularly               a remarkable success story which would       Board’s confidence in Northern Ireland
  in areas with impressive technical                     not have been possible without the           as a location and the success of the firm
  talent such as Belfast. Causeway Asset                 exceptional pool of talent here from both    here. We will continue to grow in local,
  Management understood our vision and                   legal and business backgrounds, which        national and international markets from
  expansion goals and truly partnered with               has allowed us to create highly skilled      Belfast, drawing on the technology skills
  us to develop the right solution for our               and specialised opportunities in Northern    emerging from our schools, universities
  future success in Belfast.”                            Ireland.”                                    and colleges.”
 Jamie Kinch                                             James Richards                               Paul Terrington
 Vice President of Real Estate & Workplace Experience    Executive Director                           Northern Ireland Chair and Head of UK Regions

                                                                                    2020                 5-yr
                                          Prime           Availability:           take-up:             average
                                          rents:           763,000                140,911              take-up:
                                          £23psf             sq ft                  sq ft              482,322
                                                                                                         sq ft
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                        Growth Ambition for the Future | 37

Office market

Demand supported by a range of occupiers                                           Notable Deals
                                                                                   Merchant Square                       Erskine House
Belfast take-up 2019 vs five year average

Professional                               Creative            Business
services                                   industries          services

37% 32% 17%
                                                                                   Size: 200,000 sq ft                   Size: 100,000 sq ft
                                                                                   Practical Completion: 2020            Practical Completion: 2019
                                                                                   Occupier: PwC                         Occupier: HMRC

                                                                                   The Ewart                             Allstate HQ, East Bridge St.
Five-year average                          Five-year average   Five-year average
22%                                        20%                 16%

                                                                                   Size: 209,000 sq ft                   Size: 138,225 sq ft
                                                                                   Practical Completion : 2021           Date: 2018
                                                                                   Occupier: Part let to Deloitte        Occupier: Allstate Investment
                                                                                   (80,000 sq ft)
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                     Growth Ambition for the Future | 38

Office market

Overview:                                                                                  Developments:                            Notable Developments
The Belfast office market has been          Office take-up has over the past few           In recent years, over 670,000 sq ft      The Weaving Works                 River House
the city’s strongest-performing             years gathered momentum, with                  of office stock has been developed
sector in both take- up and                 notable deals including PwC taking             and Belfast city centre has some
investment since 2015. Five-year            over 200,000 sq ft at Merchant                 of the most modern, Grade A
annual office take-up average               Square, the Department of Finance              office buildings in the UK. Although
stands at 482,322 sq ft, remarkable         taking 149,000 sq ft at 9 Lanyon               speculative development has been
given that the 2011 – 2015 five-            Place and HMRC taking over 100,000             limited over the last five years, most
year average equated to 319,000             sq ft at Erskine House.                        schemes have been fully leased
sq ft. Rising by almost 200,000                                                            by practical completion. Recent
sq ft per year is no mean feat and          The public sector was historically             completed developments include           Completed: 2017                   Completed: 2018
is testament to the occupational            the largest occupier in the office             City Quays 2, River House, The Laser,    Developer: Karl Group             Developer: Castleforge Partners
market Belfast has, with modern             market. However this situation                 Merchant Square and The Weaving          Size:      30,528 sq ft           Size:      78,000 sq ft
stock and low overheads attractive          has significantly reduced over the             Works.
to both occupiers and investors.            years with a huge rise in the tech,
                                            creative and professional service                                                       City Quays 2                      Merchant Square
                                            industries resulting in many global
                                            organisations calling Belfast their
                                            home.

      Belfast office sector take-up                  Belfast office sector take-up
                                                                                                      Banking & Finance
               2011-2019                                         2020

                                                           10%                                        Consumer Services & Leisure
                            16%
      20%                                                                    24%
                                                    5%
                                                                                                      Professional                  Completed: 2017                   Completed: 2020
                                                  1%
                                                 0%                                                                                 Developer: Belfast Harbour        Developer: Oakland Holdings
                                                                                                      Business Servics
                                                3%                                                                                  Size:      80,000 sq ft           Size:      201,000 sq ft
                                      14%                                                             Insurance

                                                                                     13%              Public Sector
24%                                                                                                   Tech

                               20%                                                                    Manufacturing Industrial
                                                     44%
            1% 0%                                                                                     & Energy
                  5%
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                                        Growth Ambition for the Future | 39

Office market
                                                                                                                   Historic UK Prime Office Rents
                                                                                            35                                                                                                         Belfast
Prime rents:                               Looking forward:                                                                                                                                            Birmingham
The current rise in prime rents is         Encouragingly, live requirements                 30
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Bristol
forecast to continue. Grade A rents        for space in Belfast continue as                                                                                                                            Edinburgh

                                                                                     £psf
                                                                                            25
for Belfast equated to £23.00 per          occupiers seek the benefit of the                                                                                                                           Glasgow
sq ft, up some 43% since 2015. This        Belfast office market fundamentals.              20                                                                                                         Leeds
rapid rise in rental values is extremely   These requirements, if fulfilled, would                                                                                                                     Liverpool
attractive to investors. However, at       equate to some 1.4m sq ft. It should             15                                                                                                         Manchester
just £23psf for city centre Grade          be noted that as of March 2021                         2015            2016             2017        2018              2019             2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: CBRE
A space, Belfast represents one of         there is only 1.19m sq ft of available
the few major cities in the UK with        office space but a further 723.629        Notable Belfast Office Investments
modern office stock at relatively low      sq ft of office development due for         Address                           Tenants                      Sq Ft             Date        Purchaser               Price
prices.                                    completion by the end of the year will                                                                                       Sold
                                           help to satisfy demand.
Investment:                                                                            Merchant Square                   PwC                          240,204            Mar-21     International            £87,000,000
Since 2015, deals worth more than          Belfast has another 2.7m sq ft of
                                                                                       Victoria House, 15-27
£343.5m have been concluded,               identified office developments which        Gloucester Street
                                                                                                                         Various                       58,254            Nov-19     Private Investor         £12,500,000
most notably Citibank purchasing           have obtained planning permission
The Gateway for £34m and The               and could start in the medium term.         The Gateway Offices               CitiBank NA                  133,205            Apr-19     International           £34,350,000
Metro Building for £21.8m, Obel 68         The development pipeline offers a                                             Department of Finance
selling for £15.2m in August 2018          great opportunity for investors to          James House, Gasworks                                           111,488           Mar-19     Government               £16,000,000
                                                                                                                         and Personnel
and James House selling for £16m           secure best-in-class schemes over           Metro Building, 6-9
in March 2019. Merchant Square             the next five years and build critical                                        Capita, Yell                  69,611            Sep-18     Private Investor         £21,800,000
                                                                                       Donegall Square
sold in March 2021 for £87m, the           mass within the market.
                                                                                       Obel 68                           Allen & Overy                 52,169            Aug-18     Harbour Commissioners    £15,200,000
largest office investment ever sold
in Northern Ireland and reflecting an      With yields reflecting c5.75%, office       Ulster Bank, Shaftesbury          The Royal Bank of
                                                                                                                                                       35,631            Apr-16     Private Investor             £9,890,000
initial yield of 5.20%.                    investments in Northern Ireland look        Square                            Scotland Plc
                                           well priced compared to other UK and        Capital House Wellington          Northern Ireland Water,
                                                                                                                                                       72,083            Jan-16     ROI Investor                 £11,050,000
                                           European cities.                            Place/Upper Queen Street          Diageo, Capita and Steria

                                                                                       The Soloist Building,
                                                                                                                         Pinsent Masons               88,000             Dec-15     UK Investor              £14,500,000
                                                                                       Lanyon Place

                                                                                       Clare House, 303 Airport          Department of Finance
                                                                                                                                                       66,210            Mar-15     Government                   £8,000,000
                                                                                       Road West                         and Personnel
                                                                                       Causeway Exchange, 1-7            Department of Finance
                                                                                                                                                       71,554            Feb-15     Government                   £12,150,000
                                                                                       Bedford Street, Belfast           and Personnel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: CBRE
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                                                 Growth Ambition for the Future | 40

        Demand for new space increasing
        development activity
                                             Belfast Take-Up                                                                                            Notable Developments
                                                                                                                                                        City Quays 3                      Olympic House
          1,000,000

           800,000

           600,000
Sq Ft

           400,000

           200,000

                                                                                                                                                        Completed: Q4 2021                Completed: Q4 2021
                 0
                                                                                                                                                        Developer: Belfast Harbour        Developer: Titanic Quarter and
                        2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020
                                                                                                                                                        Size:      260,000 sq ft                     Belfast Harbour
        Source - CBRE
                                                                                                                                                                                          Size:      146,746 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                        The Ewart                         The Paper Exchange
                                                                     Belfast Supply

          1,600,000

          1,400,000

          1,200,000

          1,000,000
Sq Ft

           800,000

           600,000

           400,000                                                                                                                                      Completed: Q4 2021                Completed: Q1 2022
           200,000                                                                                                                                      Developer: MRP                    Developer: Wirefox
                                                                                                                                                        Size:      209,000 sq ft          Size:      156,000 sq ft
                        2011   2012   2012   2013   2013   2014   2014   2015   2015   2016   2016     2017   2017   2018   2018   2019   2019   2020
                         H2     H1     H2     H1     H2     H1     H2     H1     H2     H1     H2       H1     H2     H1     H2     H1     H2     H1
        Source - CBRE
                                                                     Secondhand        New & pre-let
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast                                                                                                        Growth Ambition for the Future | 41

Thought piece -
The growth of tech
It is estimated that around 60,000         among its partners. Belfast is the        Both Queen’s University Belfast
people are employed by technology          world’s number one destination for        and Ulster University are investing
companies in Belfast, making it one        US-based cybertech investment             heavily in electronics, computer
of the leading cities in Europe for new    and is fast becoming a global cyber       sciences and cybersecurity. The
software development. The wider            security hub. This sector employs         region is expanding its economic
Northern Ireland tech ecosystem can        over 1,200 people. With a pipeline        development efforts, with the
lay claim to over 1,200 companies,         of talent, pioneering research and        Northern Ireland Executive publishing
ranging from large multi-nationals to      innovation and secure and resilient       its New Decade, New Approach
small start-ups. It is home to global      infrastructure, it will be one of the     agreement, which included a call to
businesses in financial software,          world’s leading cyber economies by        promote the region as a global cyber
data analytics and encryption,             2026.                                     security hub.
access control systems, and
intelligent surveillance technologies:     These tech companies have                 The £1bn Belfast Region City Deal will
with occupiers such as Concentrix,         excellent reasons to be based in          also play a substantial part in growing
Rapid7, Neueda and Proofpoint all          Belfast. Not only does it represent       the tech sector even further.
taking new office space in recent          competitive value for money, but it
years.                                     is one of the most technologically
                                           advanced cities in the UK. Belfast has
Supporting all these businesses            invested heavily in infrastructure that
is a strong network of regional            supports tech companies.
and UK government investment
programmes and world-class                 Add to this an exceptionally
academic institutions. Queen’s             talented, young and highly-educated
University Belfast is globally-            workforce, and it becomes apparent
renowned for its Centre for Secure         why the business start-up survival
Information Technologies (CSIT), an        rate in the city is 55.3%, one of the
innovation and knowledge centre            highest in Europe. Belfast has in
for cyber security and the largest         place all the elements needed to
of its kind in the UK, with BAE            grow and nurture a thriving tech
Systems, Infosys, IBM and Thales           community.

                                                                                                                               New offices at Chichester House for cyber-security company Rapid7
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