Investing in Belfast's Future - A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast's growth and development between 2015 and 2020 ...
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Growth Ambition for the Future | 1 Investing in Belfast’s Future A Real Estate Research Report An overview and analysis of Belfast’s growth and development between 2015 and 2020 and the city’s future outlook.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 2 Introduction Renewed Ambition is a joint public The first is a detailed market asset containing invaluable insights and private sector-led initiative insights analysis to understand and information which many which aims to shape how we the performance of the real estate international investors, banks and reimagine the future of our city market in Belfast over the last property companies will be keenly and act together to deliver that five years and also to identify the interested in. ambition in the months and years opportunity that lies ahead. ahead. I hope all the partners involved in In January 2021, CBRE NI was Renewed Ambition will find this Over the last 12 months, Renewed appointed to carry out the research research acts as a useful and Ambition has delivered an intensive and we are pleased to present their insightful tool when having those collaborative programme across five market insights, based on their view all-important conversations with key pillars: a series of events and of the commercial real estate market. investors and key stakeholders. webinars to shape the conversation about the city and engage with A second piece of research is We look forward to strong recovery the investment community; a also underway which will assess and growth in our re-energised stakeholder engagement strategy; a the social impact of real estate capital city, Belfast, and across the research pillar; PR, communications investment in the city. We look wider region in the months ahead. and media engagement and, finally, forward to sharing that too in the a repository of relevant information coming months. for sponsors to access through the Invest in Belfast website. On behalf of the Renewed Ambition Taskforce, I would like to thank all As part of the research pillar, it was those who have been involved in agreed we would commission two shaping this document. Collectively, pieces of research. we have developed a new research Joe O’Neill Chair, Renewed Ambition Chief Executive, Belfast Harbour
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 3 Contents 01 Executive summary 04 02 Reasons to invest 07 03 Northern Ireland overview 11 04 Belfast in the context of UK & Ireland 14 05 The Belfast Region 21 06 Real estate market performance & outlook 29 6A Investment market 30 6B Office market 35 6C Retail market 42 6D Industrial market 48 6E Hotel & leisure market 53 6F Multifamily residential market 57 6G Purpose-Built Student Accommodation 65 07 UK & Ireland cities: commercial real estate summaries 71
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 4 01 Executive summary
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 5 Executive summary Belfast is a city with a passion economy ecosystem. A total of 44% the winners who will emerge the for progress. It is the energetic, of new jobs are in the tech sector and strongest and Belfast has it in Belfast is a city full of ambition, youthful and flourishing regional it is listed among the world top 10 abundance. optimism, and above all capital of Northern Ireland and the locations of the future for technology second-largest city on the island of investment, just behind London and Our report identifies and examines a opportunity. As a talented, Ireland. Singapore. It is a leading European range of opportunities: competitive and connected city for investment from US-based It is a city celebrated for its industrial cyber security firms, as well as being The Belfast Region City Deal is city, we’re the second fastest leadership. a strategic sister city to Boston and one of the most important recent growing knowledge economy Nashville, building on its international achievements – a £1 billion co- in the UK, with excellent digital In engineering, it has enjoyed world renown in areas such as shipbuilding connections, heritage and reputation. investment package that is vital for growth. It is estimated that infrastructure and thriving and aircraft manufacture. And, What does all this mean for our the deal will create up to 20,000 clusters of high growth as the largest global producer of linen, it earned the unofficial title future? This report, commissioned by Renewed Ambition, analyses the new and better jobs, delivering a 10-year programme to unlock new companies. It’s no wonder that ‘Linenopolis’. opportunities for continued growth innovations and R&D pathways whilst 80% of businesses that locate in and investment. It focuses on the ushering in a new era of inclusive Those heady days of industrial real estate market, examining current economic growth. Our report Belfast choose to re-invest. prowess left their ingenious mark levels of performance and looking examines that potential in detail. on the city’s people. They are ahead. passionate about innovation; it is in We have a young and highly their DNA and has earned the city However, no report of this kind can educated population, essential to a new unofficial title – ‘Techopolis’. ignore today’s great challenges. developing the tech sector and Now it is spearheading progress in Progress will be influenced by the fuelling the demand for talent from other fields – like cancer research, social and economic effects of global companies locating into health sciences, food security, data Covid-19 and the continuing impact the region, as well as fast-growing analytics, cyber security – and in the of Brexit. Belfast is a city which has indigenous businesses. engineering of tomorrow. faced uncertainty before, tackling difficulties which few other cities Our city provides the unique benefit Belfast has become a world-leading have endured and overcoming them of dual market access to the UK and hub of discovery in digital technology, to emerge renewed and confident. In EU. For companies looking to serve creating a thriving knowledge times of turmoil, resilience defines the UK and EU markets we are the
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 6 Executive summary continued ideal location. Consequently, the for new student accommodation by skills availability, competitive sale known as Project Dragonglass) Robert Ditty real estate market is experiencing a continues to increase and at a pace operating costs and our advanced in 2018; Project Trident (the Tifco Investment Director positive impact with an upswing in far greater than the current supply telecoms infrastructure. Hotel Platform) to Apollo Global CBRE NI interest right across the region. can offer. Management, including the Since 2015, there have been over Travelodge Hotels in Belfast and Gavin Elliott The growth of online retailing and the Many of these students will graduate £343.5m of office investment deals Derry; Dalata Hotel Group buying 22 Investment Director escalation of last mile delivery, with a with the skills Belfast needs and will in Belfast, most notably the sale Ormeau Avenue for £18.5m and the CBRE NI consequent requirement for further stay to live and work here. Belfast City of Merchant Square for £87m, the £17m spent by Ampleforth Group to space, is leading to significant Council has set an ambitious target largest such sale in Northern Ireland, buy the Fitzwilliam Hotel. demand for logistics and industrial of attracting 66,000 people to live which reflected a yield of 5.2%. development, increasing the need for and work in the city and also 31,600 There has also been £34.47m worth Going forward, the city has strong further space. additional homes across Belfast by of industrial investment, including fundamentals in place to support 2035. Amazon’s Last Mile distribution hub an upsurge in Build-to-Rent (BTR) The office market has been the city’s at Channel Commercial Park, sold with a major opportunity for first- strongest-performing sector since This is a city which will be home to to UBS for £27.12m in 2020, at a mover advantage. Whilst there 2015. An imbalance in supply and the professionals of tomorrow. It reported yield of 5.5%. aren’t any major BTR developments demand, coupled with high levels is also a compact city, easy to get under construction at this time, of foreign direct investment, means around and an attractive place in The hotel sector has been badly several investors and developers are that the development pipeline will which to live, where the journey to hit by the pandemic. Pre-Covid, progressing plans with a number of continue to expand over the next the office is not an arduous one and occupancy was approaching 72% schemes currently progressing at few years. Despite the challenge the countryside and coast are just with a RevPar of £57.25 and an planning. of Covid, our unique location and minutes away. Average Daily Rate of £78.201. business environment remained The market will benefit from the Belfast is alive with entrepreneurial a strong attractor for international We also assess the city’s unique gradual easing of restrictions, the spirit, ambition and optimism. This companies with 2020 and 2021 to geographical advantages and ambitious tourism and cultural report projects a picture of great date seeing several new FDI entrants transport connections with Dublin, strategy outlined by Belfast City opportunity, unique to Belfast and with significant job announcements GB and Europe. Belfast has become Council and the investment in unlike any other city in the UK. A land in the city. one of Ireland’s premier business new tourism attractions funded picture of a city poised for an exciting cities with the largest employed through the Belfast Region City economic future with untapped Our universities and colleges have population in Northern Ireland. It Deal. Transactions since 2015 have investment opportunities. 30,240 full-time students who study enjoys major success in securing included the sale of the Hilton and live within the city. The demand foreign direct investment, attracted Belfast (part of a wider portfolio (Source: STR. 2021 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.) 1
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 7 02 Reasons to invest
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 8 Uniquely positioned for growth “ Belfast will continue on its journey of attracting investment to develop the infrastructure needed to support our city’s ambitious economic and social plans. Powered by its young, vibrant and highly-educated workforce and home to a growing raft of inward investors and fast-growing indigenous companies, Belfast is primed for an exciting economic future, focused on sustainability and inclusive growth. Add to that the city’s access to both UK and European markets – a factor which is catching the attention of investors from across the world – the city’s growth potential is immense.” Suzanne Wylie Chief Executive Belfast City Council
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 9 Reasons to invest THE PEOPLE ICT INFRASTRUCTURE CONNECTIVITY There is a highly-educated population with over 40% Northern Ireland is one of the best connected regions in Northern Ireland is a compact region with strong of residents educated to NVQ level 4 or above. Belfast Europe. It has the highest availability of fibre broadband connectivity. It benefits from two airports connecting with benefits from two world-class universities with Ulster in the UK at 95%, projected to increase to 99% in the near GB, Europe and further afield. London is 1 hour by plane, University’s new campus, due to open towards the end future. Project Kelvin, the transatlantic fibre optic network Dublin 1 hour 30 minutes by car and Scotland 2 hours of 2021, bringing 15,000 students and staff into the city which links Europe to the US, has its first connecting hub 30 minutes by ferry. In addition the region has a well- centre. 26% of the population is aged between 16-34 in Europe on Northern Ireland’s north coast. This allows connected motorway network and the majority of large which is one of the youngest populations in Europe. Northern Ireland based servers to send data to the US cities and towns in the wider area can be accessed within quicker than any other part of Europe. 15 to 45 minutes’ drive. There is extensive investment in the transport infrastructure such as the new Belfast Rapid Transit System and the new transport hub in Belfast city centre, due to open in 2025, will further improve connectivity. QUALITY OF LIFE THE ECONOMY DUAL MARKET ACCESS Belfast has a lot to offer. Excellent education, healthcare, Belfast has a high GDP per capita of £44,300. GDP The region is unique in having dual market access within affordable housing, quality public facilities and amenities growth for 2021 is estimated at 4.9% which is ahead of the UK and European markets. This has the potential to provide the city and its residents with a very high quality the UK average. The region is also creating jobs at a faster create unparalleled opportunities and advantages in a of life. Glassdoor named Belfast as one of the top cities in rate than the UK, led by the tech sector with 44% of jobs range of areas including manufacturing, life sciences and the UK in which to work and live. created, compared to a UK average of 12%. financial and professional services.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 10 Reasons to invest BELFAST REGION CITY DEAL OFFICE SECTOR INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR The Belfast Region City Deal is a £1 billion co-investment This continues to be one of the best performing sectors This sector is expected to see huge growth over the package. The UK Government has contributed £350m, in Northern Ireland. Rents are very competitive at £23.00 next five years with no speculative schemes on site and the NI Executive is expected to add at least a further psf and are a significant discount when compared to nearly 2 million sq ft of unfulfilled requirements. Current £350m and six councils and two universities will Dublin (€60.00 psf), Cork (€32.50 psf), Edinburgh (£36.00 rents have risen considerably in the last few years but contribute over £150m. Direct investment from the psf), Glasgow (£32.50 psf), Bristol (£37.00 psf), Leeds are still off a low base of £4.50 psf compared to Dublin private sector will take the overall package to over £1bn. (£32.00 psf), Manchester (£37.50 psf), Birmingham (€10.50 psf), Cork (€8.50 psf), Edinburgh (£9.50 psf), The deal’s target is the creation of up to 20,000 new and (£37.00 psf) and Liverpool (£25.00 psf). Office yields at Glasgow (£8.75 psf), Bristol (£7.50 psf), Leeds (£6.75 better jobs in a 10-year programme of economic growth, 5.75% offer are also at a discount in comparison to the UK psf), Manchester (£6.95 psf), Birmingham (£7.75 psf) and including an increase of £470m GVA. (4.75%) and Dublin (4.00%). We expect there will be future Liverpool (£6.50 psf). We expect strong rental growth yield compression and rental growth in this sector. as prime supply is very limited and will reach levels that make speculative development possible. Industrial yields at 5.75% offer are also discounted from those in the UK (4.00%) and Dublin (4.75%). RETAIL SECTOR MULTIFAMILY SECTOR LOW CARBON Belfast retail has faced a succession of major challenges, There is a huge opportunity in this sector with strong Belfast City Council has established a Resilience and including the shutdown caused by Covid. We believe it demand and affordable levels of rent. Belfast City Council Sustainability Board with an ambition to make the will begin to pick up towards the end of 2021, due to the is strongly promoting city centre living. This will involve transition to a low-carbon economy in a generation. This easing of restrictions and driven by further growth in significant investment from the private sector and will is seen as a key objective of local government which will tourism, increased city centre living and cross-border be further driven by growth in the commercial property help future-proof the city and wider region. shopping. sectors.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 11 03 Northern Ireland overview
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 12 Flight time map Glasgow North 30mins Europe America Belfast Amsterdam Dublin 1 hour 35 mins London Berlin 1 hour 2 hours New York Brussels 7 hours 1 hour 30 mins Paris 1 hour 45 mins Milan 2 hours 30 mins Barcelona Rome 2 hours 30 mins 3 hours Madrid 2 hours 30 mins
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 13 Northern Ireland snapshot Demographics Population 26% 0.64% 5.7% 69.4% 1.88m People aged between 16-34. Highest population second highest predicted Employment rate of between 28% of population of Ireland and 3% One of the youngest growth in the population growth people aged of the UK populations UK 2019 over the next 25 16-64 years old in Europe years in the UK Economy 42% £47K 55.3% 3.2% 4.9% Amount of GVA per head Business Growth in the Estimated residents educated start up average national GDP growth to 3rd level survival rate salary, £28,000 for 2021 education or above Job Creation 44% 9% 10% Tech jobs Across all jobs Office based jobs (vs. 12% in the UK) (vs. 6% in the UK) (vs. 9% in the UK) Geography 2HR 15 1HR 30 1HR 1HR 50 Ferry crossing Drive time Flight time Belfast to to Scotland to Dublin to London Dublin train
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 14 04 Belfast in the context of UK & Ireland
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 15 Belfast is the largest city in Northern Ireland and the second largest on the island of Ireland after Dublin. Named amongst the top 10 best places on the planet to visit over the next decade by Big Travel 7, the city has flourished in Belfast recent years and is a top destination for commerce, education and tourism both in the UK and on the island of Ireland. • The city is alive with • Belfast is also home to a rapidly the UK corporate market. And entrepreneurial spirit and capital growing fintech industry and is with an average home value of investment is evident everywhere. recognised as a world-leading hub £159,625 and median base salary Construction and development for cybersecurity. fDi Intelligence of £28,000, Belfast has emerged remain at the forefront of the city’s ranked Belfast as 3rd globally for as a highly desirable place in One of the world’s 100% 4G broadband onward projection. “Fintech Locations of the Future which to live. Northern Ireland is top destinations for coverage in 2020”. Global software companies the top performing UK region for fintech. Belfast, the first in • From innovation in the legal include Allstate, Citi and Rapid7. GCSEs per head of population and Europe. Voted “best sector to ground-breaking cancer over 40% of Belfast’s near 630K city for tech” by research, Belfast can boast global • Belfast has a business start-up regional catchment population Zoopla. research centres of excellence and survival rate of 55.3%, one of the are educated to NVQ level or supporting high growth clusters. It best rates in Europe. above. Its two universities, Ulster 5th best city in the UK is the leading city in Europe for new University and Queen’s University for quality of lifestyle. software development and is home • There are over 895 international Belfast, have approximately 50,000 to global businesses in fintech, companies based in Belfast, students, many of whom stay in 1.5 million - the data analytics and encryption, responsible for the employment of Belfast once they have graduated. amount of overnight access control systems, some 98,000 people. trips per year that and intelligent surveillance • Belfast is projected to have the 24.6 million tonnes contribute some £334 technologies. It has a film industry • International recruitment firm second highest population growth of goods and 1.5 million to the economy which has expanded in scope Glassdoor recently named in the UK over the next 25 years (at million passengers (pre-Covid). and reputation. As the place that Belfast as one of the top cities around 5.7%). The past five years passed through Belfast produced Game of Thrones, it is in the UK in which to live and have also witnessed more people Harbour in 2019. firmly on the global tourist trail. work – representing real value moving to Belfast than leaving, as Growth is likely to continue for the for money for both employer net migration increases. 2019’s foreseeable future with Belfast and employee. Belfast has figure of 4,100 was the highest in Two well-renowned Harbour planning to invest a further significantly lesser costs attached well over 10 years. universities with over £45m to quadruple the size of their to labour, commercial rents 50,000 students current studios. and tax compared to the rest of studying in Belfast.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 16 Belfast • Belfast is a young city and has one • Approx. 2.2m people visit Northern of the youngest populations in Ireland every year, according to Europe. Approximately 26% of the research from Tourism Ireland. This population are aged between 16- is worth over £1bn to the economy. 34. • Belfast was the first city in Europe • Enhanced connectivity – the to achieve 100% broadband Belfast Rapid Transit System has coverage and was also ranked the been a huge success since it best city in the UK for tech lovers launched in 2018. Weavers Cross by Zoopla. Urban innovation is at transport hub will further improve the core of the city. accessibility across Northern Ireland and into the Republic of • Through its Smart Belfast Ireland. Belfast is the 7th best framework, Belfast has become a city in Europe for connectivity, ‘living laboratory’ and is harnessing as awarded by fDi Intelligence. the city’s talent pool, creativity and Moreover, 24.6m tonnes of goods technical infrastructure to support and 1.5m passengers passed the city’s growth. through Belfast Harbour in 2019. Belfast Metropolitan Population Projection 650,000 640,000 630,000 Persons 620,000 610,000 600,000 - 590,000 - 580,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Oxford Economics
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 17 The investor opportunity across the Belfast Region The Brexit advantage for the Belfast Region Northern Ireland has the only UK land border with the European Union. This provides some unique competitive advantages: • Northern Ireland has retained tariff- • These benefits will provide a free access to the European Union. positive boost for Northern Ireland based companies to show a further • Northern Ireland remains in the competitive advantage when EU’s single market for goods. considering locating or expanding. They already benefit from a • Dual market access to both the UK highly skilled labour pool, lower and EU means the Belfast Region occupational costs and business can become a gateway for the sale friendly environment. of goods into both markets. • Northern Ireland is the only region free from customs declarations, rules or origin certificates and non tariff barriers on the sale of goods to both the UK and EU. “ Selling something from Northern Ireland into Great Britain? There are zero issues. There is no paperwork or exit declarations needed”. Steve Harper Executive Director of International Business Invest Northern Ireland
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 18 A unique real estate investment prospect Belfast’s commercial property • Belfast has witnessed record • The £100m Northern Ireland Belfast is UK’s most important regional FDI hub market is highly competitive and levels of office, hotel and student Investment Fund, targeted Percentage of total regional FDI projects for leading UK cities, 2018-2019 represents real value for money. accommodation take-up since at stimulating development Belfast Its Grade A office rents are some 2015. throughout Northern Ireland, and 79 Bristol 50 of the most affordable in both the the Belfast City Centre Investment Birmingham 47 UK and ROI. At present, there is a • Office take-up has averaged Fund, aimed at stimulating further Manchester 45 large supply-demand imbalance, 482,322 sq ft per annum with regeneration in the city centre, will Cardiff 42 particularly in office, industrial and Grade A rents having grown from provide welcome support for the Leeds 34 residential sectors. £15.00 psf in 2015 to £23.00 psf in property sector as it navigates its Cambridge 25 2021. way forward. Glasgow 23 Edinburgh 22 Reading 17 • fDi Intelligence ranked Belfast as • The impact of Covid-19 has hit Aberdeen 15 best small city in the world for real estate trends with the growth (Source: EY UK Attractiveness Survey 2020) business in 2018 and has named of online retail and working from it as one of the top 25 cities in the home. However both of these were world for attracting foreign direct already well advanced in Northern Belfast City Council has made it a priority for the city to investment. 71% of investors in Ireland so Belfast is in a strong reduce its carbon footprint. Belfast’s Resilience Strategy Northern Ireland reinvest and we position to bounce back quicker sets out a total of 30 transformational programmes believe this number will only rise in than most in 2021 and beyond. to transition the city to an inclusive, zero-emissions, the following years. climate-resilient economy in a generation. • Brexit has also presented a unique • The Belfast Region City Deal will opportunity for CRE in Northern The Resilience Strategy is the first time that individuals see a £1bn co-investment package Ireland, with the country now and organisations have worked together to identify the for the wider city region. It is hoped having a foot in both the EU and shocks and stresses which make Belfast more vulnerable the deal will create up to 20,000 UK markets. Both the public and and could threaten our economic, social or environmental new skilled jobs alongside a 10-year private sector have a chance to future. programme of economic growth, maximise full potential of the dual including an increase of £470m access market. Belfast City Council has set 30 foundational programmes Gross Value Added (GVA). to achieve decade-long interventions which will have a positive impact, at scale, across the city to help achieve their resilience goal.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 19 Belfast 2020 Total Investment Volume: 2020 at a Glance Belfast’s USP Recent Deals £57.04 million Investment activity during H2 was Belfast continues to have one of Merchant Square, Channel Commercial Number of Deals: 7 again limited due to challenges the most unique markets in the UK. March 2021 Park, October 2020 presented by Covid-19, particularly The city benefits from having two investors’ ability to inspect properties well-renowned universities and an and undertake due diligence. The excellent primary and secondary investment spend over the second school system. Belfast has built a half of the year across all sectors in strong global reputation for being a Northern Ireland totalled £57.3m, market leader in a number of sectors bringing the 2020 yearly investment including cybersecurity, fintech and total spend to £136m, a decrease of film production. The city also benefits 36% from 2019. Office, industrial and from having one of the lowest Area: 240,204 sq ft Area: 99,338 sq ft supermarket yields have remained occupational and operational costs in Notable Tenants: PwC Notable Tenants: Amazon stable over the year. However, we the UK as well as access to best-in- Lease Term: WAULT c.9.88 Yrs Lease Term: WAULT c.10 Yrs have seen a considerable softening class ICT infrastructure. We believe Rent pa: £4,850,000 Rent pa: £1,590,000 Prime Office Yield of yields in the retail sector, primarily that Belfast is uniquely positioned Price: £87m Price: £27.12m 5.75% driven by the effects of Covid-19 and following Brexit to benefit from NIY: 5.20% NIY: 5.5% ongoing structural changes in the having dual access to the UK and EU Purchaser: Albilad Capital Purchaser: UBS Asset Management sector. markets. Belfast Investment Volumes 2015 – 2020 250 Investor Type by volume (£m) Since 2015 Prime Industrial Yield 75.16 200 5.75% NI Investor 150 113.88 246.40 £m GB Prop Co 100 ROI Investor International Investor 50 Prime Retail Yield Owner Occupier 7.5% 139.40 0 92.81 Institutional 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 49.57 Industrial Mixed Use Office Other Retail
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 20 UK & Ireland investment volumes for 2020 In comparison to other regional 2020 Investment Investment Prime Prime Prime Prime Prime Prime Retail cities, Belfast offers significant Volumes Volumes 5yr- Office Yield Industrial Retail Yield Office Industrial Rents (PSF headroom for growth and value Average (%) Yield (%) (%) Rents (PSF) Rents (PSF) ZA) for money. As the development pipeline across the various Belfast £57.04 million £113.10 million 5.75% 5.75% 7.50% £23.00 £4.50 £125 sectors increases, we expect that transactional volumes will UK Key Markets £3.38 billion £5.26 billion 4.75% 4.00% 5.25% - - - also increase and lead to yield compression driven by strong Birmingham £859.07 million £1.32 billion 4.75% 4.25% 6.75% £37.00 £7.75 £190 investment fundamentals. Bristol £669.05 million £610.72 million 4.75% 4.35% 9.75% £37.00 £7.50 £76.50 Edinburgh £667.80 million £904.12 million 4.50% 4.50% 6.00% £36.00 £9.50 £175 Glasgow £250.61 million £713.08 million 5.25% 4.50% 6.00% £32.50 £8.75 £229.50 Leeds £348.96 million £511.30 million 5.00% 4.75% 6.25% £32.00 £6.75 £191.25 Liverpool £81.75 million £327.13 million 6.75% 4.50% 5.80% £25.00 £6.50 £198.90 Manchester £2.17 billion £1.89 billion 4.75% 4.00% 6.50% £37.50 £6.95 £221.85 Dublin €3.2 billion €3.4 billion 4.00% 4.75% 5.50% €60.00 €10.50 - Cork €27.2 million €102.7 million 5.50% 6.50% 7.50% €32.50 €8.50 €180 Source: CBRE
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 21 05 The Belfast Region
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 22 The investor opportunity across the Belfast Region In addition to Belfast City Belfast Region Industrial & Logistics Council, the wider Belfast Region encompasses Antrim and The industrial and logistics sector has been the best performing over the past five years in Great Britain. Belfast and Newtownabbey Borough Council, the wider region are only beginning to see significant investment and occupier interest over the past 12 months and we Ards and North Down Borough believe there is huge opportunity for first mover advantage in the sector. Council, Lisburn and Castlereagh City Council, Mid and East Antrim • Changing behaviours in the retail • The pandemic has accelerated • There are a number of Ireland wide Borough Council and Newry, Mourne sector to online has resulted in changes that were already logistics requirements which could and Down District Council. significant developer and investor underway as many temporary be in part a result of lack of space activity in the industrial and behaviours become more and pricing on the greater Dublin logistics sectors across Europe. permanent. The growth of online area. The Belfast Region is a compelling retailing has helped support the investment proposition, perfectly • Belfast and the wider region has need for further logistics space. positioned post-Brexit, with unique not witnessed any speculative Belfast and the wider region offer strengths including the competitive activity in the Industrial or Logistics opportunities for both investors advantage of access to EU and sectors since 2007. and occupiers seeking lands zoned GB markets and connections to for logistics space. international markets such as the • Since Q4 2020, investor enquiries US. for logistics have increased • CBRE is currently tracking significantly. occupier requirements for in excess of 1.9 million sq ft Logistics • Logistics & Industrial development accommodation throughout represents one of the largest Northern Ireland. There is currently potential growth sectors for the no supply to meet this demand. Belfast Region. Equally there are very limited new build opportunities for existing businesses to grow into and there is a need for smaller schemes to meet this need.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 23 The investor opportunity across the Belfast Region Development Opportunities across the Belfast Region • The Belfast Region Investment • Across the partner councils, a number of local and regional Belfast Guide identifies a number of strategic opportunity sites projects have been selected to potentially available for investment. help transform and regenerate Region the wider region. • The strategic location on the eastern economic corridor of • Investment has been secured to Ireland makes it one of the most deliver some of these flagship industrious and ambitious regions projects but many more Investment Guide and best placed to take advantage opportunities are available to be of the cross border location, realised across the Belfast Region. Brexit advantages and locational advantages into the UK and EU.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 24 Who has invested in the Belfast Region? Overview: Address Purchaser Price Sector Purchaser Between 2015 - 2020 investor activity in the Belfast Type Region (excluding Belfast City and the Greater Belfast Area) totalled £428.34m. A selection of Valley Retail Park, Newtownabbey AEW Europe £7,150,000 Retail Institutional Belfast Region deals are detailed below. Bloomfield Shopping Centre & Retail Park, Bangor Tristian Capital Partners £54,150,000 Retail Institutional The Boulevard, Banbridge Tristian Capital Partners £11,000,000 Retail Institutional Belfast Investment by Sector 2015 – 2020 The Junction, Antrim Tristian Capital Partners £21,795,000 Retail Institutional 2% 10% 1% Highfield Retail Park, Craigavon Private Local £14,250,000 Retail Institutional Retail Damolly Retail Park, Newry MJM £30,750,000 Retail Private Local Office Tower Centre, Ballymena Private Local £6,500,000 Retail Private Local Industrial Other Curry’s / PC World, Lisburn Aberdeen Asset Management £13,925,000 Retail Institutional Tesco Extra, Newry Investec £27,250,000 Retail Institutional 86% Castlebawn Retail Park, Newtownards Home Bargains £7,200,000 Retail Owner Occupier Down Retail Park, Downpatrick Comer Group £11,000,000 Retail PropCo Belfast Investor Type 2015 – 2020 Bow Street Mall, Lisburn Comer Brothers £12,500,000 Retail PropCo 10% 21% Antrim Business Park, Antrim UK Private £12,500,000 Industrial PropCo Private Local Clandeboye Retail Park, Bangor Harry Corry Pension Scheme £8,700,000 Retail Private Local Owner Occupier 3% Institutional Sprucefield Retail Park, Lisburn NewRiver Retail £40,000,000 Retail Institutional PropCo Abbey Retail Park, Newtownabbey Slate AM £33,000,000 Retail Institutional 65% Royal Mail, Mallusk Unknown £30,000,000 Industrial Private Local Curry’s / PC World, Sprucefield Private Local £8,000,000 Retail Private Local Statistics exclude Belfast City and the Greater Belfast Area. Source: CBRE.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 25 The Belfast Region City Deal What will it deliver? 3. Competitive Operating Costs • Salary costs are lower than other regions What is it? The Belfast Region City Deal will deliver of the UK and up to 30% lower than The Belfast Region City Deal is a growth in the city regions economy with London, Dublin and Paris. a 10 year programme to increase GVA by collaboration between the Belfast £470m and creating up to 20,000 new and • Operating costs are lower than the rest of £1 billion the UK and Europe (FDI benchmarking). Region partner councils, Queen’s better jobs, accessible to people from all value of the Belfast • Prime office rents are amongst the lowest Region City Deal University Belfast, Ulster University and communities. in Europe and are lower than many other the regional Further Education Colleges The Belfast Region City Deal partners UK regional locations and Dublin. alongside NI and UK Governments. have agreed four investment pillars: • The overall tax burden in Northern Ireland is the lowest of all the major European Partners have agreed an integrated • Infrastructure economies. programme to transform the region’s • Tourism and Regeneration £470 million economy. The £1 billion co-investment • Innovation and Digital 4. Digital Connectivity planned increase package will seek to address a number • Employment and Skills • Northern Ireland was the first region in GVA in Europe to achieve 100% broadband of key barriers to growth. What are the advantages? coverage. • Project Kelvin offers resilient and fast 1. Excellent Transport Infrastructure connectivity to North America. • Two airports offering daily scheduled flights across UK, Europe and other 5. Highly Skilled & Talented Workforce worldwide destinations. • The Belfast Region provides access • Belfast Harbour is the second busiest to over 1 million people. It generates port on the island of Ireland. approximately £47,000 GVA per head. • Motorway network linking all areas • 61% of all jobs in Northern Ireland are including easy access to Dublin and based in the region. the EU. 2. Location • Easily accessible location. London is an hour away by air and Dublin is 90 minutes by car. • Northern Ireland is the only part of the UK sharing a land border with the EU.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 26 Belfast Region City Deal – Projects The following are a selection of projects being progressed as part of the Belfast Region City Deal. i4C Innovation Centre Belfast Destination Hub St. Patrick’s Barracks, Ballymena Belfast city centre Click here to read more. Click here to read more.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 27 Belfast Region City Deal – Projects The following are a selection of projects being progressed as part of the Belfast Region City Deal. Bangor Waterfront Hillsborough Bangor Hillsborough Click here to read more. Click here to read more.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 28 Belfast Region City Deal – Projects The following are a selection of projects being progressed as part of the Belfast Region City Deal. Newry City Centre Regeneration Advanced Manufacturing Innovation Centre (AMIC) Newry Belfast Region Click here to read more. Click here to read more.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 29 06 Real estate market performance & outlook
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 30 06 Investment A market
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 31 Investment market Overview: The Belfast Commercial Real As the second largest city on Estate (CRE) investment market the island of Ireland, it has huge has traditionally been much investment potential. Northern smaller than in other major Ireland and Belfast have a On average, £132m Property returns of Averaged against the 71% of investors UK cities, with over half of its unique competitive advantage of CRE investment 7.7% for Belfast in 2019, 3 main property asset reinvest in Belfast. investments since 2015 coming as a consequence of Brexit, with takes place in exceeding that of other classes, yields equate from domestic UK investors. This arrangements eliminating tariffs for Belfast each year. UK nations. to 6.28%. being said, what Belfast’s CRE UK businesses trading with the EU. market perhaps lacks in stature, Northern Ireland firms will also avoid it makes up for in value. Attractive the need for new regulatory checks Notable Belfast Investments yields, positive rental growth, because they will still be following large public sector employment EU single market rules. This Address Date Sold Purchaser Price NIY Sector and a growing tech industry are should attract new occupiers and all reasons investors continue to business seeking to benefit from choose Belfast. its exceptional status, which in turn Merchant Square Mar-21 International £87,000,000 5.20% Offices should be a positive boost for the Belfast CRE industry. Holywood Exchange Nov-20 GB Prop Co £17,920,000 9.74% Retail Amazon, Channel Commercial Park Oct-20 Institutional £27,120,800 5.50% Industrial Furthermore, given that no other UK country shares a border with the EU, CastleCourt Shopping Centre Jul-17 International £123,000,000 6.41% Retail Belfast offers a gateway to Europe - less than a 90-minute drive to John Bell House, Belfast – NI Investor £30,000,000 TBC Other Dublin, a city that witnessed €3.2bn of CRE investment in 2020. Many Metro Building, 6-9 Donegall Square South Sep-18 NI Investor £21,800,000 5.52% Office commentators suggest that capital NCP Car Park, Montgomery Street Jun-18 Institutional £18,040,000 4.27% Other previously deployed into Dublin may be invested into Belfast in future 40/46 Donegall Place, Belfast Jun-18 International £16,400,000 7.00% Retail years as Belfast establishes itself as a portal of trade for the UK and EU. Cleaver House, Donegall Place Sep-17 ROI Investor £15,250,000 7.63% Mixed Use Obel 68 Aug-18 Institutional £15,200,000 6.64% Office Source: CBRE.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 32 Investment market Investment Volumes: However, there was some Type of Investor: Belfast Investment Volumes Industrial 2020 Investment volumes across encouraging news in 2020. Industrial Unlike the rest of the UK, the market Mixed Use the market are down – 35% from the properties had an exceptional over the past six years continues to 250 Office 2019 figure and 49% down on the five year with £29.57m of industrial be largely dominated by domestic 200 Other year average, as investors are forced investment sales, making it the investors, with 34% of the market to take stock and consider their busiest for industrial investment share being attributed to NI 150 Retail options. sales in well over six years. investors. However, with 13% and 19% £m respectively, GB property companies 100 Since 2015, £717m worth of CRE and international investors continue 50 stock has transacted between to appreciate the value of the investors in Belfast. This equates Northern Ireland market and are 0 to 101 deals. The largest deal in this still very much active across all 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 period was Wirefox’s purchase of asset classes. Source: CBRE CastleCourt in July 2017, a deal that achieved a yield of some 6.41%. Other The past couple of years has started large purchases included the £30m to see a shift with more foreign UK Investment Volumes purchase of John Bell House student money taking a look - and indeed accommodation, UBS’s purchase of investing - in the Belfast CRE market. Amazon’s Last Mile Distribution Hub With the expected growth in the 2500 at Titanic Quarter and the sale of the industrial and residential sectors, the 2000 Metro Office Building in September attention of foreign investment is 1500 2018 for £21.8m. likely to increase. £m 1000 During March 2021, Merchant Square 500 sold to Albilad Capital for £87m, 0 reflecting an net initial yield of 5.20% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 which is the largest office investment and strongest yield achieved in the Belfast Birmingham Bistrol Edinburgh Belfast market. This bodes well for Glasgow Leeds Liverpool Manchester the future of the office sector in the region. Source: CBRE/PropertyData
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 33 Investment market Investment returns & yields: • Further encouragement in the • At an all property level, Belfast’s investment market can be taken total return was 1.4%. Belfast’s from Belfast property yields in office return was underpinned by 2020 were able to hold stable, an income return of 7.5%. Belfast’s with only retail yields softening. comparatively high overall income Averaged across the three main return of 7.1% continues to make asset classes, Belfast’s property the city a competitive property yields at the end of 2020 equated investment destination in a pan- to 6.3%, putting it on a par with European context. Bristol (6.28%). Belfast Investment Yields 10 9 8 7 % 6 High Street Shopping Centres Retail Warehouses 5 Supermarkets Offices Industrial 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Merchant Square sold for £87m in March 2021, reflecting NIY of 5.2% Source: CBRE
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 34 Investment market Prime yields at the end of 2020 Belfast UK Regional Dublin Cities Retail High Street Shops 7.50% 5.25% 7.50% Shopping Centres 9.50% 7.00% 5.50% Retail Warehouses (bulky) 8.00% 6.50% 5.75% Office 5.75% 4.75% 4.00% Industrial 5.75% 4.50% 4.75% (Estates)
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 35 06 Office B market
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 36 A resilient market “ Rapid7 is committed to investing in the “The growth of our Belfast office has been “This move underlines the PwC Executive company’s global expansion, particularly a remarkable success story which would Board’s confidence in Northern Ireland in areas with impressive technical not have been possible without the as a location and the success of the firm talent such as Belfast. Causeway Asset exceptional pool of talent here from both here. We will continue to grow in local, Management understood our vision and legal and business backgrounds, which national and international markets from expansion goals and truly partnered with has allowed us to create highly skilled Belfast, drawing on the technology skills us to develop the right solution for our and specialised opportunities in Northern emerging from our schools, universities future success in Belfast.” Ireland.” and colleges.” Jamie Kinch James Richards Paul Terrington Vice President of Real Estate & Workplace Experience Executive Director Northern Ireland Chair and Head of UK Regions 2020 5-yr Prime Availability: take-up: average rents: 763,000 140,911 take-up: £23psf sq ft sq ft 482,322 sq ft
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 37 Office market Demand supported by a range of occupiers Notable Deals Merchant Square Erskine House Belfast take-up 2019 vs five year average Professional Creative Business services industries services 37% 32% 17% Size: 200,000 sq ft Size: 100,000 sq ft Practical Completion: 2020 Practical Completion: 2019 Occupier: PwC Occupier: HMRC The Ewart Allstate HQ, East Bridge St. Five-year average Five-year average Five-year average 22% 20% 16% Size: 209,000 sq ft Size: 138,225 sq ft Practical Completion : 2021 Date: 2018 Occupier: Part let to Deloitte Occupier: Allstate Investment (80,000 sq ft)
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 38 Office market Overview: Developments: Notable Developments The Belfast office market has been Office take-up has over the past few In recent years, over 670,000 sq ft The Weaving Works River House the city’s strongest-performing years gathered momentum, with of office stock has been developed sector in both take- up and notable deals including PwC taking and Belfast city centre has some investment since 2015. Five-year over 200,000 sq ft at Merchant of the most modern, Grade A annual office take-up average Square, the Department of Finance office buildings in the UK. Although stands at 482,322 sq ft, remarkable taking 149,000 sq ft at 9 Lanyon speculative development has been given that the 2011 – 2015 five- Place and HMRC taking over 100,000 limited over the last five years, most year average equated to 319,000 sq ft at Erskine House. schemes have been fully leased sq ft. Rising by almost 200,000 by practical completion. Recent sq ft per year is no mean feat and The public sector was historically completed developments include Completed: 2017 Completed: 2018 is testament to the occupational the largest occupier in the office City Quays 2, River House, The Laser, Developer: Karl Group Developer: Castleforge Partners market Belfast has, with modern market. However this situation Merchant Square and The Weaving Size: 30,528 sq ft Size: 78,000 sq ft stock and low overheads attractive has significantly reduced over the Works. to both occupiers and investors. years with a huge rise in the tech, creative and professional service City Quays 2 Merchant Square industries resulting in many global organisations calling Belfast their home. Belfast office sector take-up Belfast office sector take-up Banking & Finance 2011-2019 2020 10% Consumer Services & Leisure 16% 20% 24% 5% Professional Completed: 2017 Completed: 2020 1% 0% Developer: Belfast Harbour Developer: Oakland Holdings Business Servics 3% Size: 80,000 sq ft Size: 201,000 sq ft 14% Insurance 13% Public Sector 24% Tech 20% Manufacturing Industrial 44% 1% 0% & Energy 5%
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 39 Office market Historic UK Prime Office Rents 35 Belfast Prime rents: Looking forward: Birmingham The current rise in prime rents is Encouragingly, live requirements 30 Bristol forecast to continue. Grade A rents for space in Belfast continue as Edinburgh £psf 25 for Belfast equated to £23.00 per occupiers seek the benefit of the Glasgow sq ft, up some 43% since 2015. This Belfast office market fundamentals. 20 Leeds rapid rise in rental values is extremely These requirements, if fulfilled, would Liverpool attractive to investors. However, at equate to some 1.4m sq ft. It should 15 Manchester just £23psf for city centre Grade be noted that as of March 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: CBRE A space, Belfast represents one of there is only 1.19m sq ft of available the few major cities in the UK with office space but a further 723.629 Notable Belfast Office Investments modern office stock at relatively low sq ft of office development due for Address Tenants Sq Ft Date Purchaser Price prices. completion by the end of the year will Sold help to satisfy demand. Investment: Merchant Square PwC 240,204 Mar-21 International £87,000,000 Since 2015, deals worth more than Belfast has another 2.7m sq ft of Victoria House, 15-27 £343.5m have been concluded, identified office developments which Gloucester Street Various 58,254 Nov-19 Private Investor £12,500,000 most notably Citibank purchasing have obtained planning permission The Gateway for £34m and The and could start in the medium term. The Gateway Offices CitiBank NA 133,205 Apr-19 International £34,350,000 Metro Building for £21.8m, Obel 68 The development pipeline offers a Department of Finance selling for £15.2m in August 2018 great opportunity for investors to James House, Gasworks 111,488 Mar-19 Government £16,000,000 and Personnel and James House selling for £16m secure best-in-class schemes over Metro Building, 6-9 in March 2019. Merchant Square the next five years and build critical Capita, Yell 69,611 Sep-18 Private Investor £21,800,000 Donegall Square sold in March 2021 for £87m, the mass within the market. Obel 68 Allen & Overy 52,169 Aug-18 Harbour Commissioners £15,200,000 largest office investment ever sold in Northern Ireland and reflecting an With yields reflecting c5.75%, office Ulster Bank, Shaftesbury The Royal Bank of 35,631 Apr-16 Private Investor £9,890,000 initial yield of 5.20%. investments in Northern Ireland look Square Scotland Plc well priced compared to other UK and Capital House Wellington Northern Ireland Water, 72,083 Jan-16 ROI Investor £11,050,000 European cities. Place/Upper Queen Street Diageo, Capita and Steria The Soloist Building, Pinsent Masons 88,000 Dec-15 UK Investor £14,500,000 Lanyon Place Clare House, 303 Airport Department of Finance 66,210 Mar-15 Government £8,000,000 Road West and Personnel Causeway Exchange, 1-7 Department of Finance 71,554 Feb-15 Government £12,150,000 Bedford Street, Belfast and Personnel Source: CBRE
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 40 Demand for new space increasing development activity Belfast Take-Up Notable Developments City Quays 3 Olympic House 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 Sq Ft 400,000 200,000 Completed: Q4 2021 Completed: Q4 2021 0 Developer: Belfast Harbour Developer: Titanic Quarter and 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Size: 260,000 sq ft Belfast Harbour Source - CBRE Size: 146,746 sq ft The Ewart The Paper Exchange Belfast Supply 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Sq Ft 800,000 600,000 400,000 Completed: Q4 2021 Completed: Q1 2022 200,000 Developer: MRP Developer: Wirefox Size: 209,000 sq ft Size: 156,000 sq ft 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 Source - CBRE Secondhand New & pre-let
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Belfast Growth Ambition for the Future | 41 Thought piece - The growth of tech It is estimated that around 60,000 among its partners. Belfast is the Both Queen’s University Belfast people are employed by technology world’s number one destination for and Ulster University are investing companies in Belfast, making it one US-based cybertech investment heavily in electronics, computer of the leading cities in Europe for new and is fast becoming a global cyber sciences and cybersecurity. The software development. The wider security hub. This sector employs region is expanding its economic Northern Ireland tech ecosystem can over 1,200 people. With a pipeline development efforts, with the lay claim to over 1,200 companies, of talent, pioneering research and Northern Ireland Executive publishing ranging from large multi-nationals to innovation and secure and resilient its New Decade, New Approach small start-ups. It is home to global infrastructure, it will be one of the agreement, which included a call to businesses in financial software, world’s leading cyber economies by promote the region as a global cyber data analytics and encryption, 2026. security hub. access control systems, and intelligent surveillance technologies: These tech companies have The £1bn Belfast Region City Deal will with occupiers such as Concentrix, excellent reasons to be based in also play a substantial part in growing Rapid7, Neueda and Proofpoint all Belfast. Not only does it represent the tech sector even further. taking new office space in recent competitive value for money, but it years. is one of the most technologically advanced cities in the UK. Belfast has Supporting all these businesses invested heavily in infrastructure that is a strong network of regional supports tech companies. and UK government investment programmes and world-class Add to this an exceptionally academic institutions. Queen’s talented, young and highly-educated University Belfast is globally- workforce, and it becomes apparent renowned for its Centre for Secure why the business start-up survival Information Technologies (CSIT), an rate in the city is 55.3%, one of the innovation and knowledge centre highest in Europe. Belfast has in for cyber security and the largest place all the elements needed to of its kind in the UK, with BAE grow and nurture a thriving tech Systems, Infosys, IBM and Thales community. New offices at Chichester House for cyber-security company Rapid7
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