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Information Booklet www.globalassembly.org wiki Instagram Twitter Facebook Global Assembly Information Booklet
Introduction 03
Summary overview 06
01 What is the climate crisis? 10
02 What is the ecological crisis? 12
03 Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis? 15
04 International negotiations 18
05 What is the impact of climate change and 22
the ecological crisis on…
…human health and livelihoods? 23
…food security? 24
…water security? 25
…land-based biodiversity and ecosystems? 25
…oceans and marine life? 26
Glossary 28
Contents
Global Assembly Information Booklet 02The Global Assembly is a gathering of people from across the world to discuss the climate and ecological crisis. Introduction Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 03
What is a citizens’ assembly? Introduction to the learning materials Footnotes
1 Global Assembly
A citizens’ assembly is a group of people from different This information booklet is part of a series of resources website
walks of life, who come together to learn about a that will support the learning and deliberation phase
certain topic, to deliberate on possible action, make of the Global Assembly. The purpose of these learning
proposals to governments and leaders and generate materials is to provide information and data so that
ideas to galvanise wider change. Members of a citizens’ you can form your own opinions on the climate and
assembly represent a miniature version of the place ecological crisis.
in question (say, a country or city, or in this case the Our hope is that this document is a springboard to
world), based on demographic criteria such as gender, ongoing lines of inquiry that you will follow for perhaps
age, income and education level. years to come; and we actively encourage you to
challenge any elements contained within and bring
What is the Global Assembly? those questions or conclusions to the Global Assembly.
The 2021 Global Assembly consists of: a 100-person The climate and ecological crisis is a complex topic
Core Citizens’ Assembly; local Community Assemblies and the result of many interconnected historical,
that anyone can run anywhere; and cultural activities social, economic and political factors. Although
to engage more people. it can sometimes seem like a very modern problem,
Later this year, there will be two major United Nations the roots of it go back many generations and at least
conferences of world leaders: the Conference of two centuries.
the Parties on climate change (COP 26) and the This booklet is an introduction to some of the most
Biodiversity Conference (COP15). In the lead up important themes related to the climate and ecological
to these COP negotiations, the Core Assembly is crisis. To create these materials, a committee of experts
bringing together a group of 100 people, representing was brought together to contribute their knowledge
a snapshot of the population of the planet to learn and wisdom. Details about the drafting process of
about the climate and ecological crisis, to deliberate this information booklet are available on the Global
and share their key messages to be presented at Assembly’s website1.
COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021. This year, There are many windows into the climate and
the Global Assembly will deliberate on the following ecological crisis and we have done the best we can
question: “How can humanity address the climate to give a snapshot into the dominant themes, facts,
and ecological crisis in a fair and effective way?” and figures in a way that is concise and readable.
There is no pressure to read it all in one go. It is
intended as a reference guide, and we hope it will
Introduction Global Assembly Information Booklet 04be useful for you in your engagement with the Global Footnotes Assembly, to support your learning and deliberation 2 Global Assembly wiki on the climate and ecological crisis. To complement this information booklet, further resources such as: videos, animated presentations, artistic creations and testimonials of lived experience will be available on the Global Assembly website. Contextualisation of this information booklet and translation in several languages will be available on the Global Assembly wiki 2. More detailed meanings for the words highlighted in bold can be found in the Glossary section at the end of the booklet. Throughout this booklet temperature is given in the measurement of degrees Celsius (°C). Please refer to the glossary for translations to Fahrenheit (°F). Introduction Global Assembly Information Booklet 05
What will the world be like in the year 2050? Summary overview Global Assembly Information Booklet 06
What will the world be Footnotes
like in the year 2050? Key points: 3 UNDP Peoples’
Climate Vote
4 IPCC
Every child born today will face the consequences — Human activities, such as the burning of fossil 5 UN Report: Nature’s
of human-induced climate change and degradation fuels, are causing the world’s temperature to Dangerous Decline
increase. Rising global temperatures are affecting ‘Unprecedented’;
of nature. It’s no longer a question of ‘if’, but ‘how much’. Species Extinction
The extent to which people alive today and future our climate and weather patterns in some ways Rates ‘Accelerating’
generations will be affected depends on what we that are irreversible4 – but some of the worst future 6 Climate Change
consequences can be avoided depending Could Force 100
do now. Although a certain amount of warming and Million People into
biodiversity loss are ‘locked in’ for the future, there is on action taken today. Poverty by 2030
still time to limit further changes in climate and the loss
— As a result of pollution, climate change,
of biodiversity, and to avoid the worst possible impacts
destruction of natural habitats and exploitation,
of the climate and ecological crisis.
one million species of plants and animals are
The causes of this climate and ecological crisis now threatened with extinction5.
are rooted in history, and can be connected to the
— Climate change and the loss of biodiversity
worldviews that have shaped the way that many
threaten food and water security and
societies operate today. Humans are part of nature
human health.
and extremely dependent on nature to survive.
limate change is mostly being driven by an excess
C
Climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation,
of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. Carbon
and air and water pollution are highly interconnected.
dioxide (CO2), the most important human-produced
The quality of life of people living in all parts of the
greenhouse gas, is produced when humans burn fossil
planet, and the prospects for current and future
fuels for energy and transport, and when forests are
generations, depend on the action that is taken today
destroyed. In the past two centuries this has caused
to address these issues. Switching to renewable energy
the planet to warm by 1.2 degrees Celsius (°C) or 2.16
systems, conserving and restoring ecosystems and
degrees Fahrenheit (°F). Scientists have found that
finding new, and better, ways to relate to nature will
global warming of 2°C (3.6°F) will be exceeded during
all be extremely important steps in the years to come.
the 21st century, unless there are significant reductions
A recent survey3 has found that a majority of people
in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions
in all regions of the world support action on climate
in the coming decades. Although it doesn’t sound like
change, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues
a lot, this means the loss of lives and livelihoods
to affect daily life.
of several hundred million people6.
Summary overview Global Assembly Information Booklet 07Rising temperatures means the Earth is now — Not all countries are equally responsible for Footnotes
experiencing more frequent and intense heat waves, climate change, rich countries have historically 7 UN Report: Nature’s
forest fires and crop failures. It also means big changes generated more greenhouse gases. Dangerous Decline
to rainfall, with much more rain in some places and less ‘Unprecedented’;
Burning fossil fuels is linked to economic development. Species Extinction
in others, leading to droughts and flooding. Rates ‘Accelerating’
As a result of this, rich countries like the United States
Human activities on Earth are having a devastating of America, the United Kingdom, and countries in the
impact on plants, animals, fungi and microorganisms. European Union have produced the largest amount
As a result of pollution, climate change, destruction of of greenhouse gases over time. Now, as the world
natural habitats and exploitation, one million out of the population grows and countries like China and India
Earth’s eight million species of plants and animals are follow the same development path as rich countries,
now threatened with extinction7. more and more people are dependent on burning
fossil fuels every year.
A lack of species diversity weakens ecosystems,
making them more vulnerable to diseases and extreme — Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale
weather and less capable of providing for the needs reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, we will
and wellbeing of humans. not be able to limit warming to less than 2°C
(3.6°F). This will have significant impacts on
— Biodiversity loss is less severe on land that is
human wellbeing.
managed by indigenous peoples.
Living with climate change means living with
Much of the world’s biodiversity exists on the traditional
uncertainty. One of these uncertainties is around
and ancestral lands of indigenous peoples. Indigenous
the idea of a ‘tipping point’. Climate tipping points
cultures have managed to live in harmony with nature
are a ‘point of no return’, when the combined effects
for millennia, and possess valuable knowledge for
of climate change result in irreversible damages
conserving and restoring ecosystems and cultivating
that would ‘cascade’ across the world, like dominos.
biodiversity. However, a long history of colonization and
Once a tipping point is reached, a series of events
marginalization means that many of these communities
is triggered, leading towards the creation of a planet
have been forced or impelled to leave their livelihoods
that is inhospitable for many people and other life
and ancestral lands, or become climate refugees due
forms. Science cannot predict with certainty when
to climate change related disasters. As a result, these
a tipping point might be reached.
unique cultures, knowledge systems, languages and
identities are also under threat.
Summary overview Global Assembly Information Booklet 08— In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and agreed — To keep the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C Footnotes
to limit global warming to well below 2°C, within reach, the 2020s need to be the decade 8 Lenton. Climate
preferably 1.5°C. of significantly reducing emissions globally. Tipping Points too
Risky to Bet Against
— According to the Intergovernmental Panel on World leaders will meet in Glasgow later this year 9 UNDP Peoples’
Climate Change (IPCC), 1.5°C of warming is likely to talk about what to do about the climate crisis, and Climate Vote
to be reached by 2040. However, the 2°C target is in China to talk about the ecological crisis. It is vital
still very dependent on the level of CO2 emissions that governments start to recognise the interactions
produced over the next several decades. between these two crises, and develop mutually
compatible goals, targets and actions.
— If all the current pledges by countries around
the world (so-called ‘nationally determined Now that the goals of the Paris Agreement have been
contributions’) to reduce greenhouse gas set, the Glasgow climate talks should be about creating
emissions are met – and we don’t know yet if they a more detailed roadmap of how to achieve them.
will – this is likely to result in at least 3°C (5.4°F) of Some important considerations will include how to
global warming8, despite the goal of the 2015 Paris agree on more effective near-term emission reductions.
Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C. For example, transitioning away from fossil fuels,
improving the use of energy, limiting deforestation,
— Many of the commitments of the Paris Agreement
and converting net-zero pledges into action.
by poorer countries may not be implemented
because they are dependent on financial support
from abroad. So far little international support
has materialized.
Countries are expected to increase their commitment
every five years. Since Paris, some progress has
already been achieved. However, things are not moving
fast enough to limit warming to 1.5°C. At the current
rate, warming will reach 1.5°C by 2040, or earlier, and
continue thereafter to increase if additional actions are
not taken now.
— Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of people in 50
countries across the world now believe that
climate change is a global emergency9.
Summary overview Global Assembly Information Booklet 09What is the climate crisis? In this section, we explore the phenomena known as “climate change”. What is it? What’s causing it? And why is it urgent? 01 Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 10
Climate change is linked to the long-term warming This seemingly small difference in temperatures (1.2°C Footnotes
of the planet. This happens because large amounts or 2.16°F) is already having far reaching impacts on the 10 IPCC A.1
of greenhouse gases are being released into the lives of many. Rising temperatures means people are 11 IPCC Sixth
atmosphere. now experiencing more frequent and intense heat Assessment Report
12 IPCC Sixth
waves, forest fires and crop failures. It also means big Assessment Report
The atmosphere is an invisible layer around the Earth
changes to rainfall, with much more rain in some places
which contains many different gases. “Greenhouse
and less in others12, leading to droughts and flooding.
gases” are a specific group of gases that can change
the thermal balance of the atmosphere and warm the Floods, droughts, heatwaves and hurricanes happened
Earth. The main greenhouse gases include carbon before climate change too, but climate science tells
dioxide (produced by burning fossil fuels and us that climate change makes these kinds of extreme
deforestation), methane and nitrous oxide (both “weather events” more likely or intense, putting millions
produced from energy and agricultural practices). of people in all regions of the world at risk of losing their
homes, being killed or injured or not having enough
One way to picture the relationship between greenhouse
food to eat or clean water to drink.
gases and temperature is to imagine a small, enclosed
room on a very hot day. The scorching sun is beating
down on the roof, but inside the room there are
no windows or doors for the heat to escape from.
Because it has nowhere to go, the heat builds
up in the room. Similarly, when there are too many
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, excess heat
is created.
The main greenhouse gas emitted by humans is carbon
dioxide (CO2). Human activities have also degraded
or destroyed many of the parts of nature that remove
it from the atmosphere, such as forests and soil. Since
people in rich countries started to burn fossil fuels
around 200 years ago, global surface temperatures
have risen by 1.2°C (2.16°F)10. Although it doesn’t sound
like a lot, the last 20 years have been the warmest
multi-year period in more than 100,000 years11.
01. What is the climate crisis? Global Assembly Information Booklet 11What is the ecological crisis? What impact are human activities having on the other species we share our planet with? In this section we take a look at why biodiversity is so important for human health and flourishing, and the role of indigenous communities across the world. 02 Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 12
Humans are part of a web of life that is much larger expense of the Earth’s soil and ecosystems, Footnotes
than our species alone. Human health is intricately making soil gradually less fertile over time17. 13 UNEP 2021, Making
interconnected with the health of animals, plants and Peace with Nature,
Current food production depends heavily on
the shared environment. As a result of how humans – Executive Summary
fertilisers, pesticides, energy, land and water, and 14 UNEP “As the world’s
particularly people in the world’s richest countries – forests continue to
on unsustainable practices such as monocropping
interact with nature, some animal and plant species shrink, urgent action
(farming of only one crop intensively) and heavy is needed to safeguard
are becoming extinct. The pace of extinction is much
tilling (disruption to the soil structure with tools and their biodiversity”
faster today compared with the rest of history13. 15 UNEP “Our global
machinery). This has destroyed the homes of many
food system is the
Biodiversity refers to all the varieties of life that can birds, mammals, insects and other organisms, primary driver of
be found on Earth, such as plants, animals, fungi and threatening or destroying their breeding, feeding biodiversity loss”
16 The German
microorganisms. Each individual species has a specific and nesting places, and crowding out many native Federal Agency
role to play in the health of the ecosystem. However, plant species18. for Conservation
as a result of pollution, climate change, invasive 17 Chatham House
A lack of species diversity weakens ecosystems and Report, “Food
alien species, destruction of natural habitats and
makes them more vulnerable to diseases and extreme system impacts
exploitation (such as overfishing), one million of the on biodiversity loss”
weather, and less capable of providing for the needs
world’s estimated eight million species of plants and 18 Chatham House
and wellbeing of humans19. Many important drugs Report, “Food
animals are threatened with extinction.
used for treating illnesses like cancer are natural or are system impacts
on biodiversity loss”
There are many reasons for this. Forests across the synthetic products inspired by things found in nature20. 19 UNEP 2021, Making
world are home to the majority of the world’s different Peace with Nature,
The world population is increasing year on year, Executive Summary
tree, bird and animal species, but every year huge
which means more and more people will be reliant 20 UNEP 2021, Making
patches of forest are destroyed when the land Peace with Nature,
on ecosystems to meet their basic needs. Loss of
is converted for humans to use for agriculture, Executive Summary
biodiversity is anticipated to accelerate in coming 21 UN Report: Nature’s
or other activities14.
decades, unless urgent action is made to halt and Dangerous Decline
‘Unprecedented’;
The food/agriculture system is one of the biggest reverse the degradation of ecosystems and to limit Species Extinction
drivers of biodiversity loss, with agriculture alone climate change. This is why it is referred to as a crisis. Rates ‘Accelerating’
being the identified threat to 24,000 species at risk
— The role of indigenous people in conserving
of extinction15. Currently the world’s entire food supply
biodiversity.
primarily depends on very few plant species16. In the
last centuries, there has been a focus on producing On average the trends of biodiversity loss have been
more and more food at lower and lower costs. This less severe in areas held or managed by indigenous
intensive agricultural production has come at the peoples and local communities21.
02. What is the ecological crisis? Global Assembly Information Booklet 13It is estimated that there are more than 370 million Yet across the world, indigenous communities have Footnotes
indigenous people spread across 70 countries had to leave their livelihoods and ancestral lands due 22 UN Forum on
worldwide. Living responsibly and in reciprocity and to a loss of land because of large-scale development Indigenous Issues
harmony with nature is a core value of many indigenous projects, or become climate refugees due to climate 23 The World Bank
24 “Protecting indigenous
cultures, and these values are often distinct from change-related disasters27. For example in Alaska, the cultures is crucial for
those of the dominant societies in which they live. US state with the largest indigneous population, rising saving the world’s
sea levels and increasing wildfires has forced the biodiversity” The
Spread across the world from the Arctic to the South Conversation
relocation of some of these communities28. 25 Biocultural heritage
Pacific, indigenous people are the descendants -
territories
according to a common definition - of those who Due to centuries-long history of marginalization and 26 Indigenous Rights:
inhabited a country or a geographical region at the colonization, indigenous peoples are nearly three times A Solution. UN
27 IPCCA
time when people of different cultures or ethnic as likely to be living in extreme poverty compared 28 Relocation in Alaska:
origins arrived. The new arrivals later became to their non-indigenous counterparts29. The crisis in A brief history of
dominant through conquest, occupation, settlement biodiversity is also entangled with the future of these how climate change
is affecting native
or other means22. unique and diverse cultures, knowledge systems, villages
languages and identities. 29 UN
Comprising less than 5 percent of the world’s
population23, indigenous peoples protect 80 percent
of land-based biodiversity24. For example, in Cusco,
Peru, a community of Quechua people are currently
conserving more than 1,400 native varieties of one
of the world’s staple crops – the potato25. Without
this safeguarding of species diversity, many of
these varieties might have gone extinct forever.
There are still many species of plants, animals
and insects which are undocumented or unknown
by science. Most of this biodiversity likely exists
on the traditional and ancestral lands of indigenous
people. Indigenous cultures have managed to live
in harmony with nature for millennia, and possess
valuable knowledge for conserving and restoring
ecosystems and cultivating biodiversity26.
02. What is the ecological crisis? Global Assembly Information Booklet 14Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis? In this section we explore how some of the dominant ‘worldviews’ of the past centuries have shaped an attitude to nature that underlies the climate and ecological 03 crisis today. Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 15
The climate and biodiversity crisis is a complex Since the Industrial Revolution, advancements in Footnotes
problem and the result of many intersecting political, science and technology distanced people living in rich 30 Alberro, Heather
economic and social issues. One of the factors countries further away from their direct dependence on Humanity and nature
underlying the difficulty in meeting this challenge nature. Millions of people moved to the city and started are not separate – we
must see them as one
is some of the “worldviews” underpinning the climate working in factories, where they operated machines, to fix the climate crisis
and ecological crisis. instead of making things with hand tools and working 31 Descartes, R. (1637).
on the land. In this period new technologies like the Discourse on the
A worldview is a bit like a pair of glasses we use to see Method
steam train, the automobile and the electric lightbulb 32 UN Emissions Gap
the world around us. Our worldview represents our
rapidly transformed people’s lives – much like how Report 2020 -
core values and beliefs, and it shapes how we think Executive Summary
mobile phones, personal computers and the internet
and what we expect from the world. It’s influenced by 33 UN Emissions Gap
have changed life today compared with 50 years ago. Report 2020 -
our own personal experiences, the beliefs and values
While some technological changes have undoubtedly Executive Summary
passed to us from our families and teachers, and the 34 Fossil CO2 and GHG
benefited people - for example through shaping
beliefs and values of the culture we grew up in. Our emissions of all
modern medicine - new technologies allowed people world countries
worldview affects how we see and act in the world.
to dominate and extract from nature in a way that had - 2019 Report
not been possible before. 35 Statistica
Today “economic growth” is often used as a marker 36 The Truth Behind
of progress and an indicator that standards of living the Climate Pledges
The Industrial Revolution allowed for the mining of fossil
are improving. However, the idea of economic growth
fuels on a mass scale. Burning fossil fuels has been the
is often coupled to a worldview that humans dominate
dominant source of energy for over 100 years, and this
and exploit nature30. This “worldview” is at the heart
has driven economic development. As a result of this,
of many high-polluting nations, and many believe has
rich countries like the US, the UK, and the countries
its roots 400 years ago, in a time period that’s known as
in the EU have produced the largest amount of
the Scientific Revolution. Intellectuals of the time wrote
greenhouse gases over time32. Now, as countries like
about how mankind was superior to nature31, and how
China and India follow the same development path as
it was the right of humans to dominate over nature.
rich countries, more and more people are dependent
The ideas that were first spread around this time were
on burning fossil fuels every year33. With its rapidly
extremely influential over the following centuries, and
growing economy, China is currently the world’s largest
helped to inform the laws, technologies, ways of life,
emitter of greenhouse gases34. Historically the US has
customs and cultures that are still present in rich
been the largest emitter, meaning that it has emitted
countries today. Many of these ways of life have since
the most amount of greenhouse gases over time35.
been passed on to, or imposed on, other countries
Within the five top contributors to emissions, the US
across the world.
also has the highest CO2 emissions per person36.
03. Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis? Global Assembly Information Booklet 16The climate and ecological crisis is a multidimensional ways of living that are not intertwined with fossil Footnotes
problem, and it is impossible to find one single narrative fuels, or dependent on economic growth as a signal 37 UNEP 2021, Making
about why this is happening, or why there has been of development and progress42. Peace with Nature,
a failure to address it. What’s more, it is very difficult Executive Summary
A healthy environment is a prerequisite for a sustainable 38 UNEP 2021, Making
for people to comprehend the scale and implications of Peace with Nature,
economy. It is becoming commonly accepted that
the climate and ecological crisis, and this limits people’s Executive Summary
economic production – gross domestic product 39 Three Decades of
ability to act as decisively and urgently as is necessary.
(GDP) – as a measure of economic growth must be Climate Mitigation:
Why Haven’t We Bent
Ways of living that are detrimental to nature and emit complemented with “inclusive wealth” (the sum of
the Global Emissions
carbon are deeply embedded in modern societies. produced, human and natural capital), which takes Curve?
Some call the climate and ecological crisis a “crisis into account the health of the environment and is 40 UNEP 2021, Making
Peace with Nature,
of relationship” between humans and nature. In order a better measure of whether national economic Executive Summary
to transition to a more sustainable future, they say policies are sustainable for the youth of today 41 Alberro, Heather
we need to “make peace37” with nature and transform and future generations43 44. Humanity and nature
are not separate – we
our economic, financial and productive systems must see them as one
accordingly38. In 2021, a group of researchers to fix the climate crisis
identified nine interlocking reasons for our collective 42 Three Decades of
Climate Mitigation:
failure to address the climate crisis over the past three Why Haven’t We Bent
decades. They argued that in order to adequately the Global Emissions
address this crisis, there is a need to question many Curve?
43 UNEP 2021, Making
of the core worldviews at the heart of industrialized, Peace with Nature
wealthy societies39. 44 The Economics of
Biodiversity: The
Human beings are biological animals, and Planet Earth Dasgupta Review
is our habitat. Rather than being separate from nature,
we are actually part of nature and dependent on it for
our survival40. Microorganisms in our gut aid digestion,
while others compose part of our skin. Pollinators such
as bees and wasps help produce the food we eat, while
trees and plants absorb the CO2 we expel and produce
the oxygen that we need to breathe41.
Despite many decades of climate action, wealthy
societies have not yet managed to imagine desirable
03. Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis? Global Assembly Information Booklet 17International negotiations World leaders will meet in Glasgow later this year to talk about climate change, and in China to talk about the ecological crisis. In this section we learn about what the goals of these negotiations are, and how they are being met so far. 04 Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 18
What have climate negotiations If we are able to significantly reduce greenhouse gas Footnotes
emissions globally by 2030, the next stage would be
achieved so far? for countries to reach “net-zero” emissions by 2050.
45 UNFCC COP
46 UNFCCC The
Scientists have been predicting human-induced climate Net zero means removing greenhouse gases from the Paris Agreement
47 IPCC Glossary
change for decades. The United Nations Framework atmosphere at the same rate as they are emitted, or 48 The Truth Behind
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed simply eliminating emissions altogether47. This could the Climate Pledges
be achieved through carbon dioxide being removed 49 The Truth Behind
in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and Conferences of the the Climate Pledges
Parties (COP) have been held every year since 1995. or ‘captured’ from the atmosphere by forests, soil 50 The Truth Behind
The purpose of the conferences is to discuss what and the ocean, and through (not yet fully developed) the Climate Pledges
carbon-capture technologies. 51 UNFCCC All NDC
to do about climate change, and to propose the
measures to be taken by participating states Over the past few years...
to address climate change45.
— China’s CO2 emissions increased by 80 percent
In 2015, world leaders met in Paris for the COP21 between 2005 and 2018 and are expected to
conference. The results of that conference were that, continue to increase for the next decade, given
for the first time, world leaders reached an agreement its projected rate of economic growth48.
on large-scale action against climate change. Some 196
participating states around the world agreed to limit — The EU and its member states are on track to
global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C46. cut greenhouse gas emissions by 58 percent
Nearly all countries made a commitment (a pledge by 203049 relative to 1990.
or a “nationally determined contribution”, NDC) — India’s emissions increased by about 76 percent
to limit their greenhouse gas emissions and lower between 2005 and 2017 and, like China, are
their contribution to climate change. These pledges expected to continue to increase until 2030 due
are to be updated every five years. to economic growth50.
There are two goals associated with limiting climate — The Russian Federation, the fifth largest
change in the Paris Agreement: greenhouse gas emitter, submitted its first NDC
1 Limit global warming to a maximum of 2°C by the in 2020 aiming to cut emissions by 30 percent
end of the century (2100), and preferably 1.5°C. by 203051.
2 Reach net-zero emissions by 2050. — The US has recently pledged to reduce its
emissions by 50-52% by 2030 relative to 2005,
when emissions peaked.
04. International negotiations Global Assembly Information Booklet 19Taken together, the NDCs determine whether or the risks associated with a 2°C increase in global Footnotes
not the world will achieve the long-term goals of the temperature are higher than previously understood61. 52 UNFCCC Nationally
Paris Agreement52. If all the current goals to reduce Determined
Since the COP21, two reports from the
greenhouse gas emissions were met – and we don’t Contributions (NDCs)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 53 Lenton. Climate
know yet if they will – this is likely to result in at least Tipping Points too
in 2018 and 2021 have stressed that the difference
3°C of global warming, despite the goal of the 2015 Risky to Bet Against
between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming will be the loss 54 EU 2030 Climate &
Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C53.
of lives and livelihoods for millions62, with even greater Energy Framework
55 UK enshrines new
Because the current NDCs are not sufficient to meet adverse consequences for higher levels of warming.
target in law to slash
the goals of the Paris Agreement, new NDCs are emissions by 78%
Research has shown how fossil fuel companies have
submitted every five years to the UN. The intention by 2035
lobbied to weaken climate policies around the world 56 UN Emissions Gap
is for each country to get more ambitious in its targets,
and have continued to do so while claiming to support Report 2020 -
based on the goals of the Paris Agreement. Each Executive Summary
the Paris Agreement. Political lobbying by fossil fuel
country establishes different goals. For example, 57 China sticks to goal
interests also explains why the Paris Agreement makes of having carbon
the EU has committed to reducing its greenhouse
no explicit mention of decarbonization or the reduction emissions peak
gas emissions by 55 percent by 203054 and the UK by 2030
of fossil fuel use, despite the scientific evidence that
by 78 percent by 203555. France and the UK are among 58 UN Emissions Gap
holding to 1.5–2°C of warming requires most fossil fuels Report 2020 -
countries that have made reaching net zero by 2050
to remain in the ground63. Executive Summary
a legal requirement. Japan, South Africa, Argentina, 59 Full NDC Synthesis
Mexico and the EU have all announced goals to reach What’s more, many fossil fuel–exporting countries Report: Some
Progress, but Still
net zero by 205056. China pledged to reach ‘peak have obstructed the decision making process by a Big Concern
emissions’ by 203057 before transitioning to net zero stalling negotiations, exacerbating political tensions 60 UNEP 2021, Making
by the end of 206058. and avoiding any reference to fossil fuels as the main Peace with Nature,
Executive Summary
cause of climate change. Countries rich in fossil fuel 61 UNEP 2021, Making
Since Paris, some progress has already been achieved.
reserves, such as Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait, and Peace with Nature
However things are not moving fast enough. A recent 62 IPCC Livelihoods
Russia, have been particularly notable for obstructing
analysis by the UN concludes that if all the NDCs were and Poverty
the negotiations and disputing the science on 63 Three Decades of
to be met, it may still lead to a temperature rise of about
climate change64. Climate Mitigation:
2.7°C by the end of the century59. Why Haven’t We Bent
Rich countries have failed to decisively lead in the Global Emissions
At the current rate, warming will reach 1.5°C by around Curve?
addressing climate change, both in achieving
2040 – possibly earlier60 –and continue to increase 64 Three Decades of
significant emission cuts and providing adequate Climate Mitigation:
if action is not taken now. Evidence has shown that
and predictable finance. Failure from the wealthiest Why Haven’t We Bent
the Global Emissions
Curve?
04. International negotiations Global Assembly Information Booklet 20nations to properly lead on this issue has created Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for Footnotes
mistrust, enabling vested interest groups such action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the 65 Three Decades of
as the fossil fuel industry to gain a foothold in some benefits it provides to people. As part of the strategic Climate Mitigation:
developing countries and thereby further embedding plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Why Haven’t We Bent
the Global Emissions
high-carbon development, rather than low-carbon Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted68. Curve?
alternatives65. 66 The Truth Behind
However, none of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets were the Climate Pledges
The lack of quick and decisive action on climate change fully met by the target deadline of 2020, and analyses 67 The Common Concern
of Humankind
will generate significant financial costs for governments show that there has been moderate or poor progress
68 Making Peace with
across the world. There are estimates that extreme for most of the targets aimed at addressing the causes Nature Report, p.71
weather as a result of human-induced climate change of biodiversity loss. As a result, the state of biodiversity 69 Making Peace with
Nature Report, p.70
could cost $2 billion per day by 2030. In addition to continues to decline.
the cost, weather events and patterns will continue
In 2021, the 15th Conference of the Parties to the
to change, and will adversely affect human health,
Convention o n Biological Diversity (CBD COP15) will
livelihoods, food, water, biodiversity and economic
be initiated in Kunming, China, and completed in 2022,
growth66.
to agree on a new framework for biodiversity, with a set
What have biodiversity negotiations of goals and targets.
achieved so far? In addition to the Convention on Biological Diversity
there are five other biodiversity-related conventions,
Biodiversity has important economic, biological including the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, the
and social value, but for a long time only the market Convention of Migratory Species of Wild Animals
economic value has been considered. (CMS), the Convention on Trade in Endangered
Species (CITES), International Treaty on Plant Genetic
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was
Resources for Food and Agriculture, and World
opened for signing in Rio De Janeiro in 1993. The
Heritage Convention (WHC). Despite these many
convention recognized for the first time in international
international conferences on biodiversity loss, none
law that the conservation of biodiversity is a “common
of the goals in the international agreements have
concern for humankind”67. The agreement covers
been fully met69.
ecosystems, species and genetic resources, such
as seeds. It is vital that governments start to recognise the
interactions between the two issues of climate change
In 2010, parties to the Convention on Biological
and biodiversity loss, and develop mutually compatible
Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for
goals, targets and actions.
04. International negotiations Global Assembly Information Booklet 21What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… In this section we take a broad look at the scale and impact of climate change and ecological crisis on human health and livelihoods, ecosystems and biodiversity in regions across the world. These 05 effects will be more or less severe depending on the level of action taken now. Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 22
… human health and livelihoods? Climate change has an impact on economic growth Footnotes
in all regions. Countries in the tropics and Southern 70 IPCC 2018 Global
Climate change is damaging to human health. It increases Hemisphere subtropics are expected to experience Warming of 1.5oC, B2
climate-related stress70 and leads to a greater risk the largest impact on economic growth due to climate 71 IPCC AR5
72 PCC Report B.5.2
of diseases, malnutrition, injuries and death due to change if global warming increases from 1.5 to 2°C75, 73 Chapter 26 Pg.1465
extreme weather such as drought, hurricanes and and even more with greater levels of warming. 74 World Health
flooding71. This risk increases with increased warming. Organisation
Many people across the world are living in regions that, 75 IPCC B5.5
76 IPCC 1.2.1, 1.2.2
Changing weather patterns can increase the likelihood by 2015, had already experienced warming of more
77 IPCC B5.1
of infectious diseases. Risks from some diseases that than 1.5°C for at least one season76. The impact of 78 UNEP 2021, Making
can be passed from animals or insects to humans, such climate change falls disproportionately on the poorest Peace with Nature,
Executive Summary
as malaria and dengue fever, are projected to increase and most vulnerable. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, 79 UNHCR, Climate
with warming from 1.5 to 2°C and increase even more compared with 2°C, could reduce the number of Change and Disaster
with higher temperature changes, including potential people exposed to climate-related risks by up to Displacement
80 UNHCR, Climate
shifts in where these diseases will appear72. For example, several hundred million by 205077. Change and Disaster
studies have shown that climate change is associated Displacement
We are increasingly seeing evidence of climate change-
with increasing rates of Lyme disease in Canada73. 81 UN Chronicle “Will
induced migration78. According to the UN Refugee There Be Climate
Pandemics can be minimized by using a “one-health” Agency, refugees, internally displaced people (IDPs) Migrants en Masse?”
approach. Diseases that jump from animals to humans, and the stateless are on the front lines of the climate
such as Covid-19, can be prevented by limiting human- crisis79. Many are living in climate “hotspots”, where they
wildlife and livestock-wildlife interactions. In a “one- typically lack the resources to adapt to an increasingly
health” approach, professionals with a wide range hostile environment. Hazards resulting from the
of experience and expertise – such as public health, increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather
animal health, plant health and the environment – join events, such as unusually heavy rainfall, prolonged
forces to achieve better public health outcomes74. droughts, desertification, environmental degradation,
A “one-health” approach can be used to prevent or sea-level rise and cyclones are already causing an
human health disasters e.g. like Covid-19. average of more than 20 million people to leave their
homes and move to other areas in their countries,
Halting and reversing ecosystem degradation, such or leave their countries entirely, each year80 81.
as deforestation, will protect plants that are valuable
to medical research and also reduce the risk of zoonotic At the end of 2020, around seven million people in 104
disease pandemics. countries and territories were living in displacement as
a result of disasters that happened not only in 2019, but
05. What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… Global Assembly Information Booklet 23also in previous years82. The top five countries with desertification means that cattle herders are migrating Footnotes
the highest number of IDPs due to disasters were southward with their livestock in search of grazing 82 IDMC, Global
Afghanistan (1.1 million); India (929,000); Pakistan pastures. This has led to increasing violent clashes Displacement Report
(806,000); Ethiopia (633,000), and Sudan (454,000)83. between these herders and farmers in the south, 83 IDMC, Global
Displacement Report
In 2017, some 1.5 million US Americans migrated in the whose crops are being destroyed and consumed 84 IDMC, Global
face of natural disasters, temporarily or permanently, by the trespassing cattle of the nomadic herders. Displacement Report
to other parts of the country84. As a consequence, farms and farmlands are being 85 United Nations’
Committee on World
abandoned from fear of violence, creating food Food Security
… food security? shortages and threats to food security. 86 IPCC 2019 Special
Report on Land
Food security means that all people, at all times, Reductions in food availability are expected to be more SPM Section A
87 The Time
have physical, social, and economic access to significant at 2°C compared to 1.5°C, and even greater 88 IPCC Section B5.3
sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their with larger temperature changes, especially in the 89 EEA “Climate Change
food preferences and dietary needs for an active Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, central Threatens Futures of
Farming in Europe”
and healthy life85. Europe and the Amazon88, with smaller yields of maize, 90 IPCC Section B5.3
rice, wheat and other cereal crops, particularly in 91 IPCC Summary for
Food security is threatened by the loss of pollinators sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central Policy Makers
and fertile soil as a result of the ecological crisis, and South America.
and the Earth’s capacity to sustain growing needs
for nutritious food will continue to weaken in the face Crop and livestock production is projected to decrease
of ongoing environmental declines. and may even have to be abandoned in parts of
Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions due to
Climate change has already affected food security the increased negative impacts of climate change89.
due to warming, changing rain patterns and a greater
frequency of extreme weather. Changes in weather With rising temperatures it’s expected that livestock
means that in recent years crop yields have declined will be affected, depending on the extent of changes
in some regions, and increased in others. Climate in available animal feed, spread of diseases, and water
change is affecting food security in drylands, resource availability90. There is also evidence that
particularly those in Africa, and high mountain climate change has resulted in changes to agricultural
regions of Asia and South America86. pests and diseases91.
Climate change effects will interact with other risks Climate change risks to food security and access
and social and political factors. One example of this are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C
can be found in parts of West Africa. In the Sahel87, of warming, very high between 3-4°C warming,
05. What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… Global Assembly Information Booklet 24and catastrophic at 4°C and above. Rising CO2 scarcity challenge agriculture97. Over the last century, Footnotes
concentrations are expected to reduce the protein population growth, industrial and agricultural activities 92 UNEP 2021, Making
and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which and living standards have created more demand for Peace with Nature,
would further reduce food and nutritional security92. water across the world98. SPM Background
Section 3.7
Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water 93 IPCC
… water security? 94 IPCC 2014 WG II SPM
quality in many regions of the world. A1, and Assessment
Water security is measured by water availability, Box SPM2 Table 1
water demand and quality (levels of pollution) … land-based biodiversity and 95 UNEP 2021, Making
Peace with Nature,
in water sources. ecosystems? SPM Section 4.2
96 UNEP 2021, Making
Pressure on ecosystems as a result of the ecological Ecosystems are the planet’s life-support systems, Peace with Nature,
crisis has resulted in the depletion or degradation for the human species and all other forms of life. Executive Summary
97 Food and Agriculture
of freshwater sources. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural Organization of the UN
About 80 percent of the world’s population already ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation 98 UNEP 2021, Making
Peace with Nature,
suffers from serious threats to water security93. It’s clear of the planet has resulted in benefits for human SPM Section 4.2
that climate change can affect the availability of water wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and 99 WHO Ecosystems
and threaten water security due to changes in rain economic development, but not all regions and groups and Human Wellbeing
100 UNEP 2021 Making
patterns. In general, rain is increasing in tropical and of people have gained from this process, and many Peace with Nature,
high-altitude regions, and decreasing in the sub-tropics have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are pg.21
due to climate change94. In 2017, around 2.2 billion only just becoming apparent99. Economic, social and 101 IPBES 2019 Global
Assessment SPM
people did not have access to safely managed drinking technological advances have come at the expense Key Messages A5,
water. More than 2 billion people globally live in river of the Earth’s capacity to sustain current and future Background Paragraph 6
human wellbeing100. 102 UNEP 2021, Making
basins suffering water stress, where the need for Peace with Nature,
freshwater exceeds 40 percent of what is available. As we have already covered in section two, species are SPM Section 3.2
In some countries in Africa and Asia, needs exceed 103 UNEP 2021, Making
currently going extinct tens to hundreds of times faster Peace with Nature,
70 percent of the freshwater available95. than the normal extinction rate101 102. Climate change SPM Section 3.7
Lack of access to clean water is also a food security increases the risk of some species becoming extinct,
issue, as the primary use of freshwater worldwide is for with 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species at
watering crops (irrigation), currently accounting for 70 greater risk of extinction under 2°C warming, and even
percent of freshwater withdrawals96. About 1.2 billion higher numbers with greater warming103. It is estimated
people live in areas where severe water shortages and that more than half a million species have insufficient
habitat for their long-term survival, and are committed
05. What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… Global Assembly Information Booklet 25to early extinction, many within decades, unless their or the UK109. In 2021, a leak at an abandoned fertiliser Footnotes
habitats are restored104. plant in Florida caused an “algal bloom” that resulted 104 UNEP 2021 Making
in the death of tonnes of marine life110. Peace with Nature,
It’s projected that at 2°C of warming, 13 percent pg.71
of ecosystems will transform from one ecosystem Plastic pollution in the oceans has increased tenfold 105 IPCC Summary
landscape to another — for example from a rainforest since 1980, constituting 60–80 percent of waste for Policy Makers
106 IPCC Chapter 2:
to a savannah ecosystem105. found in the oceans. Plastic can be found in all oceans Land-climate
at all depths and concentrates in the ocean currents. interactions
There is a high confidence that rising global 107 IPCC Chapter 2:
Ocean plastic litter causes ecological impacts including
temperatures will result in shifts of climate zones, Land-climate
entanglement and ingestion by marine life and animals. interactions
with new, hot climates being created in tropical
The risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal 108 UNEP 2021 Making
regions106, longer fire weather seasons and increased Peace with Nature,
ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and
risk of fires in drought-prone regions107. pg.71
kelp forests, increases with global warming111. 109 UNEP 2021 Making
In 2020, less than a quarter of the global land surface Peace with Nature,
At the moment, the Earth’s oceans are absorbing 30 pg.16
still functions in a nearly natural way, with its biodiversity
percent of the global CO2 emissions and almost all 110 The Guardian 1, 2
largely intact. This quarter is mostly located in dry, cold, 111 UNEP 2021 Making
of the excess heat in the atmosphere, leading to Peace with Nature,
or mountainous areas, and thus far has a low human
warming sea temperatures. Since 1993, the rate of pg.16
population and has undergone little transformation108.
ocean warming has more than doubled112, resulting 112 IPCC 2019 Special
Report The Ocean
in the destruction of coral reefs and extinction of some
… oceans and marine life? marine life. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to
and Cryosphere in
a Changing Climate,
The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from climate change and are projected to decline to 10 to SPM A2
113 IPBES 2019 Global
microbes to marine mammals, and a wide range 30 percent of former cover at 1.5°C warming, and to Assessment
of ecosystems. Two thirds of the oceans are now less than one percent of former cover at 2°C warming 114 UNEP 2021 Making
impacted by humans. Detrimental human activities (that is, 99 percent of coral reefs would be lost at 2°C Peace with Nature,
pg.22
include overfishing, coastal and offshore infrastructure warming)113. The accumulation of heat in the oceans 115 UN Fact Sheet
and shipping, ocean acidification and waste and will persist for centuries and affect many future People and Oceans
nutrient runoff. One third of wild marine fish stocks generations114.
were overharvested in 2015, and depletion of fish
Approximately 40 percent of the global population live
stocks due to overfishing is a huge risk to food security.
within 100km (60 miles) of the coast. Around 10 percent
Fertilisers entering coastal ecosystems have produced
of the world’s population live in coastal areas that are
more than 400 “dead zones” totalling more than
less than 10 meters above sea level115. As a result of
245,000 km2 – an area bigger than the Ecuador
climate change, sea levels are rising, the ocean is
05. What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… Global Assembly Information Booklet 26warming and seawater is becoming more acidic due Footnotes
to carbon dioxide intake. Even if warming is kept well 116 IPCC 2019 Special
below 2°C, there is a high confidence that communities Report The Ocean
in all regions of the world – especially coastal and Cryosphere in
a Changing Climate
communities – will still have to adapt to these 117 IPCC 2019 Special
changes in the world’s oceans116. Report The Ocean
and Cryosphere in
As a result of ocean temperatures warming, many a Changing Climate,
SPM A4, A5 & A6
marine species have changed their behaviour and
118 IPCC Sixth
location, bringing them into contact with different Assessment Report
species, causing disruption to ecosystems and
increasing the risk of spreading disease117.
Many changes due to past and future greenhouse
gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia,
especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets
and global sea level.
Scientists say that unless there are immediate,
rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, this situation will soon become too severe
to meet the Paris targets118 – this is why what we are
experiencing now is a climate and ecological crisis.
05. What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… Global Assembly Information Booklet 27Glossary Global Assembly Information Booklet Global Assembly Information Booklet 28
Adaptation: To change, adjust or improve something Extinction: The moment when a kind of organism, Footnotes
so as to make it suitable for a different situation. usually a species, becomes extinct. Extinction happens 119 CBDR - Britannica
when the last remaining individual of the species dies. 120 UN Who are
Carbon budget: An amount of carbon dioxide that Indigenous people?
a country, company, or organization has agreed is the GDP: Gross domestic product is the standard measure
largest it will produce in a particular period of time. of the value added created through the production of
goods and services in a country during a certain period.
Carbon dioxide (CO2): Carbon dioxide is a gas
consisting of one part carbon and two parts oxygen. Greenland ice sheet: The Greenland ice sheet is
a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres,
Conference of the Parties (COP): The decision-making
roughly 79% of the surface of Greenland. It is the
body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the
second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic
implementation of the United Nations Framework
ice sheet.
Convention on Climate Change.
Greenhouse gases: The six greenhouse gases covered
Decarbonizing: The reduction of carbon dioxide
by the United Nations Framework Convention on
emissions through the use of low carbon power
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol
sources, meaning less greenhouse gasses are
are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
emitted into the atmosphere.
hydroflurocarbons, perflurocarbons and sulphar
Economic growth: Economic growth is an increase hexafluoride.
in the goods and services produced in a market (for
Indigenous people: An official definition of “indigenous”
example, a country’s economy). Economic growth is
has not been adopted by any UN-system body.
measured in terms of gross domestic product, or GDP.
According to common definition, however, indigenous
Equity: “Common but differentiated responsibilities” people are the descendants of those who inhabited
(CBDR) is a principle of international environmental a country or a geographical region at the time when
law establishing that all states are responsible for people of different cultures or ethnic origins arrived.
addressing global environmental destruction, yet The new arrivals later became dominant through
not equally responsible119. conquest, occupation, settlement or other means.
It is estimated that there are more than 370 million
Exploit/exploitation: To use someone or something indigenous people spread across 70 countries
unfairly to your own advantage, with a lack of care worldwide120.
for the thing that’s being exploited.
Glossary Global Assembly Information Booklet 29You can also read
