IN BRIEF UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY UPDATE AND OUTLOOK - December 2021 - Gerald Eve
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IN BRIEF UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY UPDATE AND OUTLOOK December 2021 Read more. geraldeve.com/services/research
DECEMBER UPDATE All Property annual total return continued its steadfast 2021 rise from negative territory in February to reach almost 17% in November. Industrial yield impact is the driving force, though there has been significant yield tightening for retail warehouses and supermarkets also. 32% 21% 4.9% 2.3% 1.5% 4.2% Industrial annual Retail warehouse 2022 GDP forecast 2022 CPI forecast 2022 10-yr bond 2022 unemployment Key for industrial has been the step change total return annual total return yield forecast rate forecast in rental growth this year, which is featured in the Spotlight. Read more for the most recent occupier and investment updates, economics data and property forecasts. Read more.
UK PROPERTY SEGMENTS UK ECONOMY SPOTLIGHT OUTLOOK C O N TAC T 2021: From sub-zero to hero All Property annual total return continued its steadfast 2021 Shopping centres, along with high street units, are seeing All Property annual total return and components rise from negative territory in February to reach almost 17% not only further signs of stabilisation in pricing, but also an Sources: MSCI in November. Clearly yield impact is the driving force and it is increasing number of actual deals taking place. The flagship % 20 interesting to note that while industrial dominates of course, Silverburn shopping centre in Glasgow was bought by there are other sectors that have contributed meaningfully to Henderson Park for £140m from Hammerson and Canada Place 15 this. Retail warehouse annual yield impact was over 16% in Pension Plan Investment Board in December, albeit for less 10 November and the main difference for returns here versus the than half of the £297m paid in December 2009. The centre stellar performance of industrial is rental growth. The step change includes the largest Tesco in Scotland on a long leasehold. 5 in industrial rents this year has been a result of the perfect storm 0 of void rates bumping along at critical low levels, limited new The UK office sector is still dominated by overseas investment development and the enormous amount of pent-up occupier with a clear preference for best-in-class assets and, again, long -5 demand given a further sustained boost by the pandemic. This leases and diversified tenants. Returns have been unremarkable -10 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 is covered in more detail in this month’s Spotlight section. over 2021, but the key factor for geographical differences is the negative yield impact for assets outside of the South East Income Return Market Rental Growth Equivalent Yield Impact Total Return In an uncertain world, investment demand has been focussed where pricing has slipped. In contrast, the City and particularly on high quality defensive stock and inflation-linked long income. the West End have seen some yield compression. In one of Selected segments, annual total return and components Investor competition is strong for these assets although stock the largest deals in December, ARA Dunedin (on behalf of ARA Source: MSCI remains limited, mainly supported by tenant sale-and-leasebacks Korea-managed funds) purchased the mixed-use office-led % and industrial development activity. Key industrial investment Marble Arch Place in London for £280m. The recently completed 40 deals in December include CBRE GI’s purchase of the John Lewis scheme is rated BREAAM Excellent and has a WAULT of 15 years. 30 distribution centre in Milton Keynes for an estimated £140m with a view to making substantive ESG improvements. Supermarkets 20 have also performed well over the pandemic and the yield impact in the year to November of almost 10% is testament to 32% 21% 10 Industrial annual total return Retail warehouse annual total return 0 this. Many of the factors above are captured in LXi REIT’s £59m purchase of retail warehouse units anchored by a Sainsburys in -10 Middlesbrough on long income for a net initial yield of 4.9%. -20 Industrial Retail All Supermarket Retail WE Leisure All City ROUK High Shopping w’house Property Office Office Office Office Street Centres Income Return Rental Growth Yield Impact Total Return geraldeve.com/services/research
UK PROPERT Y SEGMENTS UK ECONOMY SPOTLIGHT OUTLOOK C O N TAC T Segments 12-month return to November 2021 Source: MSCI % 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 London UK distr All SE ROUK Retail All Supermarket All Lon/SE Midtown & Leisure All City ROUK SE ROUK ROUK London Shopping SE multi-let w’house Industrial multi-let multi-let warehouse Property Retail office parks WE office Office office standard office office high street high street centres high street industrial industrial office parks Income return Rental growth Yield impact Total return geraldeve.com/services/research
UK PROPERTY SEGMENTS UK ECONOMY SPOTLIGHT OUTLOOK C O N TAC T UK economy 4.9% 1.5% The economy grew by only 0.1% in the month to October in CPI annual inflation surprised on the upside and hit 4.8% in keeping with the predicted autumn slowdown. Moreover, November. Moreover the imminent likelihood of more social growth has been supported by increases in health output, restrictions will delay the rotation of spending back from goods 2022 GDP forecast 2022 10-yr bond yield forecast partly due to high levels of Covid testing. With the troubling to services, which may exacerbate price pressures. After a uncertainties for social consumption caused by the new spike early in 2022, Oxford Economics optimistically expects Omicron Covid variant, Oxford Economics has revised down its forecast of GDP growth for 2022 to 4.9% from 5.5% last month. inflation to drop out of the figures later in the year and into 2023. Nevertheless, the Bank of England saw sufficient danger 2.3% 4.2% 2022 CPI forecast 2022 unemployment rate forecast to begin raising base rates, to 0.25%, in December. There will Encouragingly retail spending increased in November, as it did likely be two further increases in 2022, ending the year at 0.75%. in October after five previous months of declines. The current figures show growth of 4.1% over the past year but spending The monthly monitor is still 2.8% below where it was in April. Growth has been Source: Bank of England, European Commission, IMF, ONS Two-year trend Latest figure driven by in-store spending on textiles and footwear, which GDP annual growth 4.6% was up an incredible 50% in the year to November. This Unemployment rate 4.2% reflects the pent up bounce back from the massive drop-off Consumer confidence -11.5 in the earlier stages of the pandemic. Conversely, spending on Retail sales growth 4.6% household goods in-store remains 11% lower than a year ago. The proportion of online retail spending increased seasonally Retail sales % online 30.1% as expected in November to 30% of the total. This is likely Manf output growth 1.2% to persist in December, given flash PMI activity indicators of Brent crude (USD/bbl) 81.05 relatively more restricted in-person socialising and shopping. Gold (USD/oz) 1,820 Manufacturing output fell another 0.1% in October, as supply FTSE100 7,060 chain disruptions and shortages across the sector persist. CPI inflation 4.8% Meanwhile the unemployment rate edged down again to 4.2% 10-year bond yield 0.8% in October and initial evidence suggests that workers mostly EUR/GBP 1.18 returned to their jobs post-furlough. However, there is great USD/GBP 1.32 uncertainty now as the consequences of Omicron play out and Two-year trend Latest figure Nov-19 Nov-20 Dec-19 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 May-21 Nov-21 while any further potential government support is unknown. geraldeve.com/services/research
UK PROPERTY SEGMENTS UK ECONOMY SPOTLIGHT OUTLOOK C O N TAC T Spotlight on... Multi-let industrial rents Multi-let rents have accelerated in recent years, reflective of the Third party Logistics firms typically occupy the larger, mid- Multi-let void rates by geography structural shift in societal spending patterns and the gentrifying box end of multi-let and this is particularly the case in Greater Source: Gerald Eve, MSCI occupier base. However, a perfect storm has seen a step change over London. Parcel & post occupiers are still very active in multi-let % 2021. Void rates are bumping along at critical low levels and limited to create ever greater numbers of last-touch depots and they are 20 new development has been met with enormous pent-up occupier now also competing for space with the grocery delivery firms. 18 16 demand given a further sustained boost by the pandemic. In the Multi-let occupancy related to food is key in London, with 23% 14 three quarters to Q3 2021 best-in-class Inner London multi-let rents of all tenant activity in the sub-5k sq ft units. Grocery logistics 12 10 have increased by as much as 36%. Even for regions outside of the (including new entrant last minute delivery services) account 8 South East prime headline rents have increased over 20% on average. for around a third of this and continue to be very active in 6 4 Inner London and have stretched out into the Greater London 2 Trade counters feature prominently across all classes and sizes boroughs and selectively into the South East near urban centres. 0 of multi-let space, typically holding around a quarter of occupied 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 space. There are many requirements in the market, partly due The quasi-office footprint is over 22% in Inner London. London & the South East Rest of UK to residential repurposing of previously held units. Amid the Post-Covid there has been increased demand, notably from scarcity of suitable accommodation, some trade counters have retailers, for multi-let back offices to consolidate with logistics Annual all-grades ERV growth by geography Source: Gerald Eve, MSCI been forced to make small sub-5k sq ft units work by really operations and free up expensive and underutilised traditional ‘sweating the space’ so they can maintain essential access to offices in the capital. Meanwhile in Greater London multi- % the densely populated household catchments. The issue is let space is increasingly being used to service the TV and film 8 7 compounded with the larger national occupiers that increasingly industry for computing and design, which also extends to 6 need to be selective when it comes to the environmental housing lighting, props and sets. Data centres are a growing 5 credentials of buildings, which is further limiting choice. segment too, given high demand for public cloud services. 4 3 2 1 0 2019 2020 2021 (annualised) London & the South East Rest of UK geraldeve.com/services/research
UK PROPERTY SEGMENTS UK ECONOMY SPOTLIGHT OUTLOOK C O N TAC T Outlook All Property total return is forecast to exceed 19% in 2021 and Total return and components by sector slip back to around 10% in 2022. Nevertheless, industrial is set to Source: Gerald Eve, MSCI continue its dominance. Underperforming retail subsectors should Retail Industrial switch from negative to positive return in 2022 and the sector % % overall is likely to continue to outperform UK offices. 20 40 11.0% 8.4% 8.8% 33.5% 14.4% 4.8% 15 35 The record-breaking late cycle surge in industrial investment 10 30 activity and pricing will boost total return in 2021 to almost 34%. 5 25 The overwhelming occupier demand set against insufficient supply 0 20 will continue to drive rental growth in 2022. Equally there should be -5 15 -10 some carry over of yield impact but at a much more moderate rate 10 -15 given the current keenness of investment pricing set against the -20 5 rising interest rate environment. -25 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Office rents have stabilised in Q4 after slipping back earlier in 2021 with the influx of tenant-controlled space. The polarisation Office All Property of the best-in-class assets is set to intensify, and prime yields have % 20 % 25 consequently tightened in London. Landlords and developers are 19.1% 10.4% 6.3% 20 reportedly marketing buildings which will deliver in the next 6-12 15 months above current market rents as they know competition for 10 4.7% 7.2% 6.1% 15 new space will be high. 5 10 5 Retail will outperform offices in 2021, driven by an incredible 24% 0 0 return for retail warehouses. This will be the first non-negative return -5 -5 since 2017. In 2022 retail warehouse return should ease but overall -10 -10 retail return is set to outperform offices again as high street and 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 shopping centre pricing stabilise and contribute positively. Income return Rental growth Yield impact Total return geraldeve.com/services/research
UK PROPERT Y SEGMENTS UK ECONOMY SPOTLIG HT OUTLOOK CO NTAC T Contact Research Further Insight STEVE SHARMAN BEN CLARKE OLIVER AL-REHANI Partner Partner Senior Research Analyst ssharman@geraldeve.com bclarke@geraldeve.com oal-rehani@geraldeve.com PRIME LOGISTICS The definitive guide to the UK’s distribution property market Tel. +44 (0)20 7333 6271 Tel. +44 (0)20 7333 6288 Tel. +44 (0)20 7518 7255 Q3 2021 Bulletin Read more Capital Markets Agency Valuation JOHN RODGERS geraldeve.com MARK TROWELL RICHARD MOIR Multi-Let Planning Budget Business Rates Review Prime Logistics Partner Partner Partner Q3 2021 Briefing Note November 2021 Q3 2021 November 2021 jrodgers@geraldeve.com mtrowell@geraldeve.com rmoir@geraldeve.com Tel. +44 (0)20 3486 3467 Tel. +44 (0)20 7333 6323 Tel. +44 (0)20 7333 6281 BRIEFING NOTE June 2021 SUSTAINABLE RETROFIT IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Cordelia Batt Senior Surveyor Tel. +44 (0)20 3486 3613 cbatt@geraldeve.com James Yarham Senior Surveyor Challenge Tel. +44 (0)20 3486 3718 jyarham@geraldeve.com Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity. With the built environment accounting for around 40% of the world’s carbon footprint, the real estate industry has a key role to play in Our advice and recommendations are underpinned by the in-depth the reduction of emissions. This is something that the industrial sector is devoting significant energy and resource into doing. In the last decade sustainability has moved to the forefront of the industrial agenda, with occupiers demanding sustainable space, investors targeting sustainable assets and developers building high specification units that align with the strictest environmental standards. However, the opportunity to occupy, purchase or build new industrial buildings is clearly limited, therefore there is increasing focus on existing stock. Bearing in mind 87% of buildings that will be in existence in 2050 have already been built, improving their sustainability is key if the UK is to meet its net zero commitment by then. Further still, with stricter MEES regulations due to come into force in April 2023 building owners must act now or be faced with unlettable assets. analysis of our award-winning research team. With a particular focus geraldeve.com Manchester BTR Euro Logistics London Markets Sustainable Retrofit on investment, London offices and industrial, our researchers work 2021 Summer 2021 Q3 2021 June 2021 closely with the agency teams to produce market-leading reports INDUSTRIAL SECTOR (SLI, MLI & POR TFOLIO) Q3 2021EAST SOUTH SOUTH Market EAST Q3 Market Overview OFFICE OFFICE Market Overview Overview INVESTMENT INVESTMENT recognised for their detail and practical insight. Q3 £10.7bn 282 £39M 4.42% £175 8.4 yrs 9.8 yrs Total Investment (YTD 2021) No. Deals Average Deal Size Avg. Yield (NIY) Avg. Cap Val £psf Avg. AWULT to Breaks Avg. AWULT to Expiries £788.3M £788.3M £832.0M 39 39 £1.4bn £20M 6.53% £20M £330M 6.53% £28725 £287 5.3 £14M 5.3 Years Years 7.1 4.34% 7.1 Years Years Total Investment (Q3) No. Deals Average Deal Size Avg. Yield (NIY) Avg. Cap Val £psf Avg. AWULT to Breaks Avg. AWULT to Expiries Total Investment (Q3) GE Involvement AvNo. Deals Average Deal Size er Avg. Yield er (NIY) Avg. Cap Val £psf Avg. AWULT to Breaks Avg. Deal Price U/O Avg. AWULT to Expiries Avg. Yield (NIY) U/O 28 114 £1.0bn £1.1bn 89 28 £13M £39.4M 5.50% 6.54% No. Deals GE Inv. No. of Available & U/O Assets £1.1bn Availableer No.No. Available 28 Assets £39.4M Avg. Deal Deal Price Price (U/O) Avail. 6.54% Avg.Avg. Yield (NIY) U/OAvail. £1.8bn 77 U/O Assets Avg. Yield (NIY) £1.9bn 86 er No. U/O Assets Avg. Deal Price (U/O) Avg. Yield (NIY) U/O Av er No. of Available & U/O Av er Assets Annual Transac on Volume and Yield (NIY) by Sub-Sector Assets No. of Available & U/O £839.7M £839.7M 58 58 2020/2021 Quarterly Industrial Investment £14.5M £14.5M 7.03% 7.03% £12bn Available 7% No. Available Assets Avg. Deal Price Avail. Avg. Yield (NIY) Avail. Available No. Available Assets Avg. Deal Price Avail. Avg. Yield (NIY) Avail. £4.5bn 6.3% £4bn 6.1% 6.0% 6% £3.3bn £10bn £3.2bn 5.5% SUBSCRIBE 5.1% £3.3bn £3bn £3.1bn South East o ce Annual Transac on Volumes & Yield Quarterly Transac on Volume Comparisons South East o ce Annual Transac on Volumes & Yield 5% Quarterly Transac on Volume Comparisons £4bn £8bn £2.0bn £4bn 4.9% £2.0bn £3.8bn £2bn £3.9bn £3.8bn 10% £3.9bn £3.8bn 4.4% 10% £3.8bn 4% £1.3bn £1.53bn £1.0bn £1.53bn £3.2bn £1.5bn £3.2bn NIY £6bn £3.2bn £1.5bn £1bn £3.2bn £1.28bn £1.28bn £3bn £1.9bn £2.9bn 8% £1.10bn £2.9bn 3% 8% £1.07bn £3bn £2.9bn £2.9bn £0.6bn £1.10bn £6.1bn £1.07bn £2.6bn £1.0bn £0.91bn 7.40% £0bn £1.0bn £0.91bn £4bn 7.32% £2.6bn 2020 Qtr 1 2020 Qtr 2 2020 Qtr 3 2020 Qtr 4 £0.81bn 2021 Qtr 1 £0.79bn 2021 Qtr 2 2021 Qtr 3 7.40% £1.3bn £0.81bn 7.32% 6.89% £0.79bn 6.82% £0.8bn 2% £0.60bn 6.82% 6.59% 6.64% 6.57% 6.89% £0.56bn HERE £1.8bn 6.36% 6.64% £3.0bn 6.57% 6% £0.60bn 6.59% 6% £0.46bn £0.56bn £1.2bn 6.36%£1.2bn £0.5bn £0.44bn £0.5bn £0.44bn £0.46bn £2bn £2bn £2.1bn £2.0bn 2021 is already a record-breaking year for Under £0.27bn £0.27bn 1% £1.3bn £1.4bn £0.9bn transac on volumes, before we even enterUnder Q4. Offer Offer 4% £0.9bn £1.3bn £1.2bn £1.2bn £1.4bn £1.6bn 4% £0.0bn £0.0bn This has been driven by far higher than average £0.7bn 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 £0bn 0% 20191 Qtr 20192 Qtr numbers Qtr 20194 of 20193 Qtr Qtr 20202 cs 20201logis Qtr and 2020 Qtr por 2020 3 Qtr olio 2021 4 Qtr deals. 2021 1 Qtr 20213 Qtr 2 Qtr 20214 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 £1bn £1bn Mul -Let Por olio Single-Let Under O er NIY 2% 2% Total investment volume for Q3 was £788.3m across 39 deals Total investment volume for Q3 was £788.3m across 39 deals re ec ng a decrease of -2.93% on Q2 2021 (excluding Atom YTD 2021 - SLI, MLI & Por olio Investment YTDec re 2021ng a decrease of -2.93% on Q2 2021 (excluding & Yield Atom Por olio) Regional Analysis and an increase -of Transac on Volume 133% on Q3 2020. £0bn £0bn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0% 0% Por olio) and an increase of 133% on Q3 2020. £6bn 10% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 £5,790M t: P olio: Volume: £1.6bn Volume: £5.8bn 8.3% Market Share: 14.7% Market Share: 54.6% £5bn NIY: 4.8% 8% NIY: 4.0% Q3 No ofInvestment Deals: 93 Volume - Town Centre VS Business Park No of Deals: 34 Q3 Tr olume Range - No of Deals & Yield Q3 Investment Volume - Town Centre VS Business Park Q3 Tr £4bn olume Range - No of Deals & Yield 10% 5.9% 10% 15 6% 15 15 5.1% 5.1% 15 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 5.7% NIY £3bn £226M (29.23%) 8.30% 4.0%8.30% £226M (29.23%) 4.5% 4% 8% 3.0% 4.0% 8% £2bn 6.67% Single-Let: £1,191M 6.67% £963M 2% Volume: £3.3bn £1bn 6.80% £826M £724M10 10 10 6.80% Market Share: 30.7% 10 £346M £300M 6% 5.42% £284M 6% NIY: 4.2% 5.42% £118M £100M £64M £26M No of Deals: 152 £547M (70.77%) £0bn 0% £547M (70.77%) oli os on Ea st nd s nd s st st er nd les nd Ea st nd dla dla We We mb gla Wa tla P Lo uth Mi Mi rth uth Hu En Sco rth So st st No So the of No Ea st We 6 e& Ea 4% 6 hir 4.15% 4% rks Yo 4.15% Por olio Park Business Single-Let Mul -Let Town Centre Business Park Town Centre 5 5 4 4 Of the £788.3m transacted in Q3,At aa£1.7bn, staggeringAsda's leaseback £397m (50%) por was in the olio sale life sciences hasThe sector. Yields in Greater London con nue to ghten, driven by a 2% 2% Of thenotable £788.3mtr transacted as in Q3, staggering £397m (50%) Colleg was in the life sciences sector. The most most notable Oxford hadPark. as Oxford tr for Oxford Science University’s aUniversity’s signi Magdalen cant impact, but even without tt weigh ng of large, super-prime assets such as22 Mowlem 2 Trading 2 venture partner Other tr Magdalen Colleg stone’s purchase of venture partner Cambridge this,Park. for Oxfordechnology Interna Science porOther Park forolio tr volumes would bestone’s approximat above the purchase of of s purchase Estate, DHL in En eld and Asda in Belvedere. With further prime Cambridge Interna Peterhouse Technology Parkechnology Park for ve yearwhich for £75.18m, approximat average. which transacted at more than 80bps sharpers purchase than theof stock 0 hi ng the market, we think there is s ll some scope for 0% Peterhouse Technology Park for £75.18m, transacted at more than 80bps sharper than the further 0 yield Sub £5m compression. Sub £5m £5m-£10m £5m-£10m £10m-£20m £10m-£20m £20m-£50m £50m-£100m £100m-£200m £20m-£50m £50m-£100m £100m-£200m 0% Q3 Ac ve Capital - Purchaser Q3 Top 10 - Purchaser Overview Q3 YTDAc vePurchaser 2021 Capital - Type Purchaser - Transac on Volume & Yield Q3 Top 10 - Purchaser Overview YTD 2021PURCHASER Top 10 - Purchaser Overview £0.3bn £277M TRANSACTED NO. OF AVG. YIELD AVG. CAP £0.3bn £277M PURCHASER TRANSACTED VOLUME NO. OF AVG. DEALS YIELD (NIY) AVG. CAP VAL £PSF £6bn 8% Purchaser Transacted £5,936M VOLUME DEALSNo. of (NIY) Avg. Yield VALAvg. £PSFCap Val Volume Deals (NIY) £psf GIC £160M 1 £598 GIC £160M 1 £598 South East Office £200M Multi-Let Life Sciences 5.73% Blackstone £3,089M 3 3.98% £284 £0.2bn £200M 6% BioMed Realty £135M 1 £0.2bn BioMed Realty £135M 1 4.82% Mileway Wilson £4bn 4.70% 4.55% 5.73% Kennedy £89M£608M 3 5 5.98% 7.09% £268 £92 4.15%£133M 4.21% Kennedy Wilson £89M 3 7.09% £268 £133M 3.89% abrdn Bri sh Land £87M£463M 2 9 3.68% 4.15% £336£299 £108M NIY 4% Bri sh Land Bentall Green Oak £87M£300M 2 1 4.15% 5.25% £336£137 £108M £0.1bn Brydell Partners Ltd £63M 1 £516 3.81% Investment Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Disclaimer & copyright Q3 2021 In Brief is a short summary of market conditions and is not intended as advice. No responsibility can be accepted for loss or damage caused by reliance on it © All rights reserved. The reproduction of the whole or part of this publication is strictly prohibited without permission from Gerald Eve LLP. 12/21 geraldeve.com/services/research
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