Impact of the Corona crisis on startups & tech - INITIAL FINDINGS 24 MARCH 2020 - Blog ...
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Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Amazon and Netflix have outperformed the market. Apple, Google, Facebook have been performing roughly in line. Current market cap Share price performance % change since 31 Jan 40% January 31 Ecommerce $ 919B Platform (0.6%) 20% TV $ 146B Streaming (3%) 0% Search $ 735B (10%) Advertising (27%) (20%) $ 1.0T Electronics (29%) (30%) S&P500 - (32%) (40%) Social $ 427B 2 dec 2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan 2020 6 feb 2020 28 feb 2019 20 mar 2020 Advertising (33%) Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. Page / 2 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Video conferencing, food delivery and health are outperforming the market. Current market cap Share price performance % change since 31 Jan 80% Video conferencing $ 36B January 31 SaaS 77% 60% Telemedicine $ 10B 40% Health 37% 20% Food $ 10B Groceries 4% 0% $ 6B (20%) Games (2%) (40%) Food $ 14B Delivery (6%) (20%) S&P500 - (33%) 2 dec 2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan 2020 6 feb 2020 28 feb 2019 20 mar 2020 Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. Page / 3 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Travel, advertising, retail and mobility have been hit hard. Current market cap Share price performance % change since 31 Jan 40% S&P500 (33%) January 31 20% Real estate $ 4.0B Marketplace (36%) 0% Mobility & $ 37B Food delivery (42%) (20%) Retail $ 17B (40%) Payments (50%) (60%) Advertising $ 34B (50%) (80%) $ 7.0B Mobility (55%) 2 dec 2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan 2020 6 feb 2020 28 feb 2019 20 mar 2020 $ 7.0B Travel (56%) Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. Page / 4 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Most big Asian companies have performed relatively better, except Recruit Holdings (jobs & recruitment) Current Market cap Share price performance % change since 31 Jan Diversified $ 430B Internet (4%) 20% January 31 Ecommerce $ 486 10% platform (15%) Ecommerce $ 39B 0% platform (17%) (10%) $ 32B Electronics (19%) (20%) Search $ 31B Advertising (30%) (30%) Job search & $ 9B recruitment (42%) 2 dec 2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan 2020 6 feb 2020 28 feb 2019 Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. Page / 5 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Health, streaming, gaming, ecommerce, food delivery and (most) SaaS are outperforming the market. Share price performance since 31 January 20% 13% 10% – (4%) (10%) (8%) (13%) (20%) (15%) (17%) (20%) (20%) (23%) (24%) Market (1) (30%) (26%) (26%) (27%) (30%) (30%) (31%) (31%) (32%) (40%) (38%) (38%) (38%) (39%) (40%) (41%) (45%) (50%) (49%) (50%) (60%) Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance. 1) Note: Nasdaq and S&P500 dropped roughly 25% in the same period. Page / 6 March 2020
Page / 7 €100B €120B €140B €160B €180B €20B €40B €60B €80B – SAP (Saas , -24%) ASML (Semiconductors , -20%) Siemens (Diversified , -42%) March 2020 Booking.com (Travel , -38%) WPP (Marketing , -50%) Dassault Systems (Diversified , -22%) Philips (Diversified , -26%) Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance. Spotify (Streaming , -12%) Adyen (Fintech , -12%) Amadeus (Travel , -45%) NXP (Semiconductors , -45%) IHS Markit (Fintech , -40%) Wolters Kluwer (Consulting , -17%) Nokia (Communications , -29%) Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Stmicro (Semiconductors , -41%) Lost value since 31 January Infineon (Semiconductors , -45%) Delivery Hero (Food , -6%) Hexagon (Semiconductors , -31%) WireCard (Fintech , -36%) Ocado (Food , 4%) Capgemini (Consulting , -43%) TakeAway.com (Food , -21%) Yandex (eCommerce , -35%) Worldline (Fintech , -27%) WorldPay (Fintech , -37%) Zalando (Fashion , -29%) Iliad (Cable , -1%) Temenos (Fintech , -37%) Axel Springer (eCommerce , 0%) Sage Group (Fintech , -27%) Zendesk (SaaS , -34%) TeamViewer (Saas , -6%) JustEat (Food , 25%) Nexi (Fintech , -32%) Scout24 (Car Sales , -22%) United Internet (Cable , -17%) Ingenico (Fintech , -15%) Nemetschek (Saas , -44%) HelloFresh (Food , 5%) in value, down 33% from €1.1 trillion to €0.8 trillion. Rightmove (Real Estate , -36%) ASM (Semiconductors , -36%) Elastic (Saas , -25%) AutoTrader (Car Sales , -35%) Kinnevik (Internet , -36%) Avast Software (Security , -32%) Boohoo.com (Fashion , -38%) Rocket Internet (Internet , -21%) Farfetch (Fashion , -36%) Ericsson (Communications , -5%) Moneysupermarket (Fintech , -24%) The Trainline (Travel , -53%) Zur Rose (Health , 9%) ASOS (Fashion , -61%) Zooplus (Pet food , 36%) Shop Apothekee (Health , 10%) Trivago (Travel , -45%) Global Fashion Group (Fashion , -29%) GoCompare (Fintech , -48%) On The Beach (Travel , -61%) Boozt Fashion (Fashion , -13%) Lastminute.com (Travel , -55%) Funding Circle (Fintech , -39%) Edreams Odigeo (Travel , -66%) Purplebricks (Real estate , -60%) Holidaycheck (Travel , -57%) The most valuable European tech & internet companies lost a combined €383 billion Hostelworld (Travel , -67%)
Page / 8 – 20% 40% 60% (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) Zooplus (€ 0.7B, eCommerce) 36% JustEat (€ 5.5B, Food) 25% Shop Apothekee (€ 0.7B, Health) 10% March 2020 Zur Rose (€ 1.1B, Health) HelloFresh (€ 4B, Food) Ocado (€ 10.3B, Food) Axel Springer (€ 6.8B, Marketplaces) Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance. Iliad (€ 7B, Communications) Ericsson (€ 1.9B, Communications) (5%) TeamViewer (€ 5.8B, Saas) Delivery Hero (€ 14.1B, Food) Spotify (€ 21.5B, Streaming) Adyen (€ 21.3B, Fintech) Boozt Fashion (€ 0.2B, Fashion) Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Ingenico (€ 4.7B, Fintech) United Internet (€ 5.1B, Communications) (17%) Wolters Kluwer (€ 16.6B, SaaS) ASML (€ 94B, Semiconductors) Rocket Internet (€ 2.4B, Diversified internet) TakeAway.com (€ 9.6B, Food) Dassault Systems (€ 34.9B, SaaS) Scout24 (€ 5.2B, Marketplaces) (22%) SAP (€ 118B, Saas) Moneysupermarket (€ 1.4B, Fintech) Elastic (€ 3.8B, Saas) Philips (€ 29.5B, Diversified) Sage Group (€ 6.5B, Fintech) Worldline (€ 8.8B, Fintech) (27%) Global Fashion Group (€ 0.3B, Fashion) Nokia (€ 15B, Communications) Zalando (€ 7.5B, Fashion) Hexagon (€ 11.9B, Semiconductors) Nexi (€ 5.3B, Fintech) Avast Software (€ 3.4B, Security) (32%) Zendesk (€ 6B, Communications) AutoTrader (€ 3.7B, Car Sales) Yandex (€ 9.2B, eCommerce) Farfetch (€ 2.3B, Fashion) Kinnevik (€ 3.7B, Internet) (36%) ASM (€ 3.8B, Semiconductors) Rightmove (€ 4B, Real Estate) WireCard (€ 10.5B, Fintech) WorldPay (€ 8.5B, Fintech) Temenos (€ 6.8B, Fintech) (37%) Booking.com (€ 45B, Travel) Boohoo.com (€ 2.4B, Fashion) Funding Circle (€ 0.2B, Fintech) IHS Markit (€ 17.8B, Fintech) Stmicroelectr. (€ 15B, Semiconductors) Siemens (€ 54B, Diversified) Capgemini (€ 10.2B, Consulting) Nemetschek (€ 4.1B, Saas) (44%) NXP (€ 19.1B, Semiconductors) Amadeus (€ 19.3B, Travel) Infineon (€ 14.6B, Semiconductors) Trivago (€ 0.5B, Travel) GoCompare (€ 0.2B, Fintech) WPP (€ 36.7B, Marketing) The Trainline (€ 1.2B, Travel) (53%) The most valuable European tech & internet companies: absolute % change. Lastminute.com (€ 0.2B, Travel) Holidaycheck (€ 0.1B, Travel) Purplebricks (€ 0.1B, Real estate) ASOS (€ 1.1B, Fashion) On The Beach (€ 0.2B, Travel) Edreams Odigeo (€ 0.2B, Travel) Hostelworld (€ 0.1B, Travel) (67%)
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Structural vs. cyclical impact: a mental framework. Structural positive Collaboration Both Structural and cyclical software impact, because crisis is Telehealth accelerating a trend that Passion economy and Passion Online groceries Meal kits was already underway. freelance could benefit from economy social distancing in the long Freelance Food delivery run (more controversial) Biotech Staples eCommerce Online eduction Discretionary eCommerce Telecom/ Streaming Gaming Real estate hosting video/music Fintech Cyclical negative Jobs Cyclical positive Travel Frontier tech Cleantech Restaurant tech Will the sharing economy Sharing Gig economy bunce back fully or only economy partially? Ride hailing Car sharing Structural negative Source: Dealroom.co Page / 9 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Publicly listed venture capital funds and diversified internet holdings. Current % change Selected portfolio companies market cap since 31 Jan Prosus € 104B (20%) Tencent, Delivery Hero, Mail,ru, Swiggy, Udemy, Byju's, Letgo Global consumer internet giant Axel Springer € 6.8B 0% Uber, Business Insider, Purplebricks, Dott, N26, Careship, Magic Leap European marketplaces and media group Adevinta € 4.3B (42%) Leboncoin, Fotocasa, Infojobs, Coches, Milanuncios, Kodit, Medwing, Flatfair, Shpock, Lendo European marketplaces group Eurazeo SE € 3.4B (36%) Europcar, Farfetch, Desigual, Doctolib, Meero Listed European VC fund Rocket Internet € 2.4B (21%) Global Fashion Group, Home24, Caterwings, Helpling, Personio, Easy Taxi, Proprio, Vaniday Startup builder and GP of GFC Draper Esprit € 372M (45%) N26, Transferwise, Revolut, Graphcore, Ledger Listed European VC fund Vostok New Ventures € 302M (40%) Babylon Health, Gett, Voi Technology, Propertyfinder Listed European VC fund Augmentum Fintech € 78M (39%) Zopa, Tide, Interactive Investor, Grover Listed European VC fund Digital Magics € 26M (41%) Hyperloop, Talent Garden, Buzzoole, DeRev Listed European VC fund H-Farm € 19M (43%) WiFi Skeleton key, Depop Listed European VC fund LVenture Group € 17M (36%) 2Hire, Soundreef, Codemotion, Apical Listed European VC fund Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. Page / 10 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Initial startup surveys indicate immediate cash flow issues for many startups. Meanwhile, well over two-thirds (1) of startups are not venture backed. In the Nordics, 38% of startups have plans to reduce their In the Netherlands, over half of startups expect to run out of workforce (by thehub.io). money in three months (by techleap.nl). Source: TeachLeap (techleap.nl) and The Hub (thehub.io). 1. Source: Dealroom.co analysis in Amsterdam and Berlin. Page / 11 March 2020
Impact of the Corona Crisis on startups & tech Startups are still slightly better off than most small business. According to JP Morgan, more than half of small business hold less than one month of cash buffer. Restaurant bookings. Cash buffer in days by small businesses. Source: JP Morgan data, FT and OpenTable. Page / 12 March 2020
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