IL PUNTO DI ACCESSO ALLA GESTIONE ATTIVA - I BENEFICI DEL NOSTRO MODELLO "MULTI-AFFILIATE" IN UN MONDO CHE CAMBIA - Itinerari Previdenziali
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IL PUNTO DI ACCESSO ALLA GESTIONE ATTIVA I BENEFICI DEL NOSTRO MODELLO “MULTI-AFFILIATE” … IN UN MONDO CHE CAMBIA NOVEMBRE 2014 Solo per investitori professionali.
LEGG MASON
PRESENZA GLOBALE
Investment location AUM totale: $708bn
Distribution/Investment location
Distribution location
14 paesi
Oltre 3,100 dipendenti
London Warsaw
Toronto Boston Luxembourg Frankfurt
New York Stamford Paris Geneva
Madrid Milan
San Francisco Cincinnati Philadelphia
Wilmington Tokyo
Pasadena Baltimore Shanghai
Miami Hong Kong Taipei
Nassau
Dubai
Singapore
Sao Paulo
Melbourne
Santiago
QS
LMM Shiozumi*
Investors
Systematic Small-cap Global
Investment Global fixed Global value equities: US, alternative fund- Quality-focused Japanese
US Equities Solutions income investing Europe, Global of-funds US equities equities
Al 30 Settembre 2014. 2IL CONTESTO ATTUALE
TASSI INRange:
RIALZO?
12 Months 6/27/2014 1y Forward
US Yields Germany Yields
4.5 4.5
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.37 3.0
Percent
Percent
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.53 2.0
2.20
1.5 1.64 1.5
1.0 1.0 1.26
0.5 0.5 0.37
0.0 0.0
3m 2 5 7 10 15 20 25 30 3m 2 5 7 10 15 20 25 30
Maturity Maturity
UK Yields Japan Yields
4.5 4.5
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.40 3.0
Percent
Percent
2.5 2.5
2.64
2.0 2.0
2.01
1.5 1.5
1.68
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5 0.17 0.56
0.0 0.0
3m 2 5 7 10 15 20 25 30 3m 2 5 7 10 15 20 25 30
Maturity Maturity
.
Fonte Bloomberg. Al 27 Giugno 2014
3LA SITUAZIONE ATTUALE
IL RUOLO CHIAVE DELLA FEDERAL RESERVE
“Lasciatemi sottolineare che, ad ogni modo, le decisioni della Fed per quanto riguarda il percorso dei tassi
d’interesse sono legati all’andamento dell’economia.” – Janet Yellen, 18 Giugno, 2014
Market and FOMC Expectations for Federal Funds Rate
Market: Range Last 12 Months Market: 27 Jun 14 FOMC Members FOMC Median
5 5
4 4
3 3
Percent
2 2
1 1
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Western Asset. As of 27 Jun 14
Non vi sono garanzie che le stime o le previsioni siano corretti.
4IL CONTESTO ATTUALE
LA RICERCA DI INCOME INCORPORA RISCHIO
7
6 5.75 5.79
4.93
5 4.67 4.77
4.55
4.32
Yield to Maturity (%)
3.87
4 3.63 3.68
3.14
3 2.79
2.52
2.34
1.96
2 1.80
1.43 1.57
1.29 1.39
1
0
Fonte: Barclays Live, al 31 Maggio 2014.
5UN 2014 ANCORA POSITIVO SULL’OBBLIGAZIONARIO
E ADESSO…?
Total Returns (%) 25 Paese 20.0
20 15.6
13.9
7-10 Year
15 11.5 13.0
10.1
10 6.4 6.9 7.9
4.3 5.8
5 2.8
0
Japan South US UK Mexico Australia Germany France Poland Brazil Italy Spain
Africa
25 Settore
UK EM
Total Returns (%)
Euro US
20
15
10 6.7 7.9 7.3
4.8 4.4 5.6 4.2 4.2 5.9 5.9
3.5
5
0
Corp HY Corp HY Corp MBS HY TIPS Local EM USD EM EM
Sovereign Corporate
10 Valute
Total Return vs USD (%)
6.8
4.2
5 1.7
0
-5 -0.3 -0.1
-2.9 -1.7
-4.0
-10 -8.3 -7.3
-15
Euro Polish Japanese South British Mexican Australian Turkish Brazilian Indian
Zloty Yen African Pound Peso Dollar Lira Real Rupee
Rand
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch. As of 30 Sep 14
Performance passate non sono garanzia di risultati futuri.
6LA DURATION DI TASSO PUÒ COMPENSARE O
CONTROBILANCIARE LA SPREAD DURATION
Rischiosità relativa* di Duration vs. Credit Spread (media mobile a 3 anni)
Fonte: Barclays, Western Asset al 31 Dicembre 2013.
*Tracking error rispetto al Barclays Aggregate indotto da un extra anno di duration come multiplo del tracking error rispetto all’Aggregate generato da un extra anno di spread duration i
Performance passate non sono indicative di risultati futuri..
7APPROCCIO TRADIZIONALE:
GESTIONE ATTIVA RISPETTO A BENCHMARK TRADIZIONALI
Outlook di Portafoglio
investimento Team di gestione globale Strategico
globale
Relative Value
Valute
Benchmark e linee guida
Definizione posizioni / Calibrazione del rischio
8APPROCCIO FLESSIBILE:
L’IMPORTANZA DELL’ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGICA
Global Multi-Sector Strategy
Liquid/Interest Rate Sensitive 30%
70% 50%
50%
High Income/Growth 70%
30%
Conservative Neutral Aggressive
Liquid/Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors High Income/Growth Sectors
Cash High Yield
Developed Market Governments/Agencies Emerging Markets
Lower Risk Investment Grade Credit Higher Risk Investment Grade Cedit
Si tratta di limiti interni e quindi soggetti a cambiamenti
9APPROCCIO INNOVATIVO:
PORTAFOGLIO DIVERSIFICATO CON VINCOLI DI VOLATILITÀ
•Strategie di lungo-termine
Opportunità di breve termine •Posizionamento tattico di
medio periodo
Macro Strategies Risk Assets
Forniscono stabilità durante Allocazione in settori/emissioni ritenuti
le fasi di stress sottovalutati in una prospettiva di
medio/lungo termine
Correlazione durante
•Duration le fasi di stress •Credito
•Curva •Valute
•Gestione Volatilià •Emerging Market
•Obbligazioni non-US senza
copertura valutaria
1
0INFORMAZIONI IMPORTANTI It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. Investment involves risks, including the possible loss of the amount invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This material is not necessarily a complete summary and is not intended, for example, as a complete analysis. The information and data in this material (that may include without limitation research, forecasts, figures, opinions, statements, trends, investment techniques and strategies) has been prepared from sources believed reliable but is not guaranteed in any way by Legg Mason Investments (Europe) Limited nor any Legg Mason, Inc. company or affiliate (together “Legg Mason”). No representation is made that the information or data is correct as of any time subsequent to its date. Individual securities mentioned are intended as examples only and are not to be taken as advice nor are they intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of investors. This material is not intended for any person or use that would be contrary to local law or regulation. Legg Mason is not responsible and takes no liability for the onward transmission of this material. Issued and approved by Legg Mason Investments (Europe) Limited, registered office 201 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3AB. Registered in England and Wales, Company No. 1732037. Authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. This information is only for use by professional clients, eligible counterparties or qualified investors. It is not aimed at, or for use by, retail clients. 11
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