HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT 2015
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 C A NA DI A N O V E R V I E W 29 QUE BE C 29 MONTREAL 5 I NFO G R A P H I C 30 QUEBEC CITY 6 B RI TI SH C O L U M B I A 31 NE W BR UNS WICK 6 VICTORIA 31 FREDERICTON 7 GREATER VANCOUVER AREA 32 SAINT JOHN 8 ABBOTSFORD 33 MONCTON 9 CHILLIWACK 34 NOVA S COTIA 10 KELOWNA 34 HALIFAX-DARTMOUTH 11 A LB ERTA 35 PE I 11 CALGARY 35 CHARLOTTETOWN 12 EDMONTON 36 NE WFOUNDLAND 13 SA SKAT C H E WA N 36 ST. JOHN’S 13 SASKATOON 14 REGINA 37 CONTACT LIS T 15 M A NI TO B A 15 WINNIPEG 16 O NTA RI O 16 WINDSOR-ESSEX 17 LONDON-ST. THOMAS 18 SUDBURY 19 KITCHENER-WATERLOO 20 HAMILTON-BURLINGTON 21 BARRIE 22 ST. CATHARINES 23 GREATER TORONTO AREA 24 MISSISSAUGA 24 OAKVILLE 25 BRAMPTON 26 DURHAM 27 KINGSTON 28 OTTAWA @REMAXca | REMAX.ca
CANADIAN OVERVIEW Most regions posted modest gains in average residential sale price, despite increased inventory in many of Canada’s housing markets. Residential property markets in Toronto, Vancouver and their surrounding areas, as well as Calgary and Edmonton continued to see prices and sales rise. The greater areas of Vancouver and Toronto saw inventory of single- family houses remain at a record low, while demand continued to climb. Prices in these markets are expected to continue to increase in 2015, by approximately three per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area and four per cent in the Greater Toronto Area. Healthy gains are also anticipated in Kelowna (7%), Victoria (4%), Windsor (5%) and Moncton (6%). Outside of B.C., Alberta and some areas of Southern Ontario, higher inventory levels was a significant trend characterizing much of the Canadian housing market in 2014. In some markets, the long, cold winter and late start to the spring season created a build-up of listings on the market, which continued to have an impact throughout the year, but also resulted in higher than usual activity in the fall as buyers came back to the market. In many cities in Canada, notably St. John’s, Quebec City, Ottawa and Halifax, increased construction over the past several years contributed to an increase of inventory. However, with construction of new buildings winding down, inventory levels are expected to balance within the next couple of years without having a notable impact on property prices. With an increased supply of inventory on the market going into the new year, the average sale price is expected to remain stable or rise modestly in most cities in 2015. Montreal (1%), Quebec City (1.5%), Ottawa (1.6%) and Sudbury (1.6%) are expecting a modest rise in average residential sale price, while little change in prices is expected in Winnipeg, Saskatoon and St. John’s. Condominiums continued to grow their | @REMAXca 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 3
share of the market in many regions. In options meant that young buyers were anticipated to have a dramatic effect on Toronto and Vancouver, higher prices and typically able to qualify for a mortgage for the real estate market, as it would likely limited inventory for single-family homes their choice of home in these markets. be minor and rates would continue to be mean that condominiums are becoming The new mortgage rules will likely have low. a practical choice for many young buyers less of an effect in the coming year as looking to enter the market. In Montreal, buyers adapt to the new regulations and The economic outlook for Canada in Kingston, Burlington, and Victoria, condos make the necessary changes to meet the 2015 is stable. The Bank of Canada has are increasingly attracting Baby Boomers criteria. projected GDP to grow by approximately looking for affordability and amenities 2.5 per cent, a rate that is roughly on within walking distance. The historically low interest rates of the par with 2014’s growth. Small increases past several years have helped sustain in employment rates and wages are Many first-time buyers continued to feel demand, and have mitigated the impact anticipated as well. Canada expects to the impact of the Canada Mortgage and of the tightened lending criteria. The welcome between 260,000 and 285,000 Housing Corporation’s tightened lending Bank of Canada has hinted at a rate new permanent residents in 2015, which criteria, which were revised in 2012. The increase in late 2015, and some experts should positively impact the residential new mortgage lending regulations have have speculated that the increase could real estate market. delayed the entry of first-time buyers into come as early as May. An interest rate the market in many regions, thus slowing hike could potentially result in a spike in down the rest of the market. Regina and buying activity, as buyers rush to secure Saskatoon were exceptions; well-paying their mortgage before the increase comes jobs and a good availability of affordable into effect. Overall, a rate increase is not AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** $416,300 (Canada) 2014* $406,145 2013 $382,513 2011 2012 $363,346 $363,740 *August Year-to-Date **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 4
RE/MAX HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Most regions across Canada posted modest After a harsh winter and late spring, gains in average residential sale price in 2014. market activity picked up in the late Prices are expected to remain stable, summer and fall. despite an increase in inventory. WESTERN CANADA EASTERN CANADA High demand created a seller’s Higher inventory created a buyer’s market in B.C. and Alberta, while market in many regions. Toronto was the market was more balanced in the exception with low inventory and Saskatchewan and Manitoba. high demand. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Low interest rates, GDP growth and The Bank of Canada has projected Canada expects to welcome between immigration continue to drive demand. GDP to grow by approximately 2.5 260,000 to 285,000 new permanent per cent, a rate that is roughly on par residents in 2015. with 2014’s growth. PROJECTIONS FOR 2015 Increase in average residential sale price EDMONTON VANCOUVER
BRIT IS H CO LUMBIA VICTORIA 2014 from 4,322 in October of 2013. enough product to fulfill high demand. The total number of sales at the end of October jumped to 5,844 – an 11 per Victoria sees a large number of Albertans Considered to be one of Canada’s cent increase from 2013’s total of 5,231. choosing to relocate to the city, and this most desirable cities to live in, Victoria’s may be enhanced by the recent troubles real estate market remained strong Interest rates are anticipated to be the in Alberta, such as the 2013 floods. throughout the year. It mirrored the predominant factor in the 2015 housing Victoria’s market should see an increase 2013 market, with a modest increase in market, coupled with the lack of available in demand as a result. activity. The rise in activity was attributed affordable housing. The market should to the harsh winter in Alberta, causing largely resemble 2014 in regards to price With its well established tourism some residents to reconsider their locale appreciation. It is also expected to remain industry and thriving technology sector, and make the move to Victoria. Another balanced, not favouring the buyer or the the economic outlook for Victoria is contributing factor was the prolonged seller. healthy. The region is expecting a four per stability of interest rates. cent increase in the average residential Demand from first-time buyers should sale price as well as a 10 to 12 per The average residential sale price in play a significant role in Victoria’s real cent increase in unit sales. As weather Victoria increased 3.6 per cent from estate market in 2015. These buyers conditions across North America are 2013, rising to an estimated $493,800 often enter the market by purchasing a proving increasingly unpredictable, from last year’s $476,568. Inventory of condominium. There is currently a good Victoria stands out as an attractive city to available properties for sale decreased selection of condominiums, as well as live in. nine per cent to 3,927 in October of new projects under development, creating AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Victoria) 2015** $513,600 2011 2014* $498,300 2012 $493,800 $484,164 2013 $476,568 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 6
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA Greater Vancouver maintained its status as the most expensive region in Canada for residential real estate in 2014. The average residential sale price was approximately $838,400 in 2014, an increase from $781,517 the previous year. Off-shore buyer demand from Mainland China continued throughout the year. Activity for detached houses was strong. Some properties are still attracting multiple offers and selling for above the list price, which is a sign of continued buyer demand. Towards the end of 2014, condos in East Vancouver were showing typical healthy activity. Well-priced homes often sold within one to two weeks, whereas the average market time for condos was 45 days. In 2015, RE/MAX expects that there will continue to be upward pressure on detached house prices in the Westside due to high demand and low inventory. However, the condo and townhouse markets will likely sustain a more balanced market. For detached homes, unit sales from August to October were down three per cent from the same three-month period last year due to lack of inventory. Condo unit sales were up 19 per cent for the same period, and townhouse unit sales were up 17 per cent. It is projected in Greater Vancouver, the number of unit sales should remain largely the same, while house prices will see an increase of around three B R I TI S H C O LU M B I A per cent. After losing multiple offer bids for detached houses in East Vancouver, buyers may become more hesitant to continue their pursuit of buying a detached home in 2015. However, as those potential buyers move to the sidelines and wait for the market to stabilize, the pipeline of demand for the region will continue to grow. Long-time homeowners of detached homes in the Westside will continue to sell their homes as they look to downsize into retirement, whereas homeowners who entered the market more recently may wish to sell to take advantage of 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 7
the substantial increases in their home’s luxury homes are being built on small over-year unit sales have increased by value. On average, price appreciation has and medium sized lots in the Westside by seven per cent since 2013, rising to 1,798 increased 48.3 per cent over the past five those who want the location, but not an sales from 1,684. The average price for years. older home. a residential unit in Abbotsford climbed five per cent to approximately $388,500 Across Vancouver, young families and Interest rates have not shown any sign of in 2014. equity downsizers will drive demand. change, and this stability creates optimism Buyers who cannot afford detached for East Vancouver’s housing market in Based on year-end estimates, the average Westside homes will take advantage of 2015. Year-over-year, demand for housing residential sale price is projected to the relative affordability of townhouse in Vancouver continues to grow. There increase by 0.5 per cent in Abbotsford. living. Demand for Westside homes will has been no substantial pullback to that The flux of interest rates and ripple effect continue to be driven by off-shore buyers demand as Vancouver is recognized locally from off-shore buyers in larger markets who can afford to pay the two million and internationally as a very desirable like Vancouver and Surrey may affect dollar-plus price tag. place to live. Affordability remains an issue Abbotsford’s sales and price activity. for many who simply cannot afford even a Continued economic strength, consumer condo on the Westside or downtown. New infrastructure built to connect confidence and off-shore buyers will Abbotsford to other cities such as Surrey, continue to drive demand for the Langley and Richmond should continue Westside upper-end housing market in ABBOTSFORD to increase sales. This includes the South 2015. Upscale condo units are selling Abbotsford’s residential market activity Surrey Perimeter highway connecting briskly in the downtown core, and new remains stable across all segments. Year- to Richmond and additional highway AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Greater Vancouver Area) $863,600 2014** $838,400 2013 2011 $781,517 $779,730 2012 $730,063 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 8
lanes going to Langley. As buyers age, the market for longer. As the availability end of the market, price appreciation of they see greater opportunity to stretch of newer condos decreases, sales activity four to five per cent is expected for the their dollar and settle in Abbotsford. The in older apartments should see a boost. coming year, and sales are anticipated to average sale price for detached houses Additionally, older apartments should remain on par with 2014. this year is approximately $451,900 with gain a pricing advantage as many sellers minimal price increases expected next have received their depreciation reports As an increased number of first-time year. and are actively renovating to remain buyers enter into the market, move- competitive. up buyers are able to realize the sale In 2015, inventory levels are expected of their home and move to the next to decrease with days on the market to level. Another trend noted in the CHILLIWACK follow suit. In October 2014, there were Chilliwack market comes from Vancouver The average residential sale price in approximately 9,000 listings, indicating homeowners who are retiring and selling Chilliwack rose to an estimated $307,000 Abbotsford’s market is moving towards their properties. The additional equity in 2014, an increase of three per cent a favourable predicament for sellers. after purchasing a place in Chilliwack over the previous year. Unit sales Without significant development planned provides a comfortable retirement fund. increased 15 per cent, to 2,395 sales in across all segments, the oversupply Many of the first-time buyers work in 2014 from 2,074 in 2013, with September of inventory is catching up to the trades and fly in and out of northern and October seeing a lot of activity. demand. Townhouses are preferred over British Columbia. A growing sense of Chilliwack’s housing market is expected condominiums as families and first-time consumer confidence is fuelled by buyers’ to continue to grow in 2015. Sales are home buyers command the lion’s share of financial security and a strong economy. anticipated to increase six to 10 per cent, the market. The second largest group is and the average price is expected to rise owners who have a dual income and no Consumer confidence, strength of the three to four per cent to $317,750. children. Women are also more active in economy and new construction in areas the residential housing market than men. like south Chilliwack, prompt optimism As the market started to heat up towards for the residential real estate market in the end of summer, days on the market Upper-end housing plays a small role in 2015. Developments in Garrison Crossing, decreased and the market is moving from Abbotsford’s market. Detached houses previously an army base, are adding a mix a balanced to a seller’s market. There was with acreage represented approximately of inventory including rental space, row an adequate availability of all property four per cent of all sales this year. Sales houses, condominiums and townhouses. types in 2014, including a selection of are projected to be stable in 2015. The award-winning designs and walkability condominium inventory in particular. The of the community continued to draw the condo market is expected to remain flat While buyers flock towards newer attention of first-time home buyers and in the coming year, with no change in condos, older apartments tend to sit on move-up buyers alike. average price anticipated. In the upper- 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 9
BRIT IS H CO LUMBIA KELOWNA residences in desirable neighbourhoods. comprising 34 per cent of sales. In 2014, The days on market decreased by apartment unit sales have increased approximately 16 per cent in 2014, and approximately 35 per cent, followed by Kelowna’s current housing activity they are expected to decrease five to 10 townhouse sales at approximately 30 per remains strong. The 2014 average per cent in 2015. cent. Kelowna’s market is anticipated to residential sale price is estimated to be see steady growth and price appreciation $428,000, a rise of eight per cent over Given this fall’s year-over-year real estate in this particular domain in 2015. the previous year. The 2014 housing board data for unit sales and average market was exceptionally active with an price, it is anticipated that unit sales Low inventory should continue to have increase of 23 per cent year-over-year should increase 10 per cent in 2015. a significant impact on Kelowna’s real in unit sales. The region is projected to estate market well into 2015, as well as continue on this upward trend. Due to Move-up buyers drove demand in 2014, low interest rates. Low interest rates fuel reduced inventory, the average residential and they are expected to do so in 2015. the increase of unit sales as well as price, sale price is expected to increase by First-time home buyers may also continue enabling buyers to afford more expensive seven per cent in 2015. to be a key factor in demand, as they take listings. Sales activity has continued to be advantage of low interest rates. strong this fall, and it is projected to carry While sales have increased, inventory forward in the next year. has not maintained pace, with active The upper-end of the market has shown listings down 16 per cent compared to steady signs of recovery since 2013. To There is considerable optimism in last year. This lack of supply has resulted date, the market has seen 132 unit sales, Kelowna’s 2015 real estate market, in multiple offers, as buyers compete for and it is predicted that there should be as consumer confidence continues to attractive, well-priced properties. 2015 increased unit sales of 10 per cent in rebound as a result of low interest rates, inventory levels are expected to remain 2015. steady job growth, and a strong prairie on par with 2014, which should result resource market. in upward pricing pressure as buyers Condominiums make up a significant continue to compete for well-appointed portion of Kelowna’s real estate market, AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Kelowna) $458,000 2014* $428,000 2011 $404,756 2012 $400,027 2013 $397,000 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 10
ALBERTA in oil prices. Buyers who are looking to move up CALGARY The price adjustment in the energy are likely to drive demand in Calgary’s real estate market in 2015. Also, the Calgary’s housing market had another industry should likely have an impact on low vacancy rate for rentals has made year of healthy price appreciation as the the 2015 Calgary housing market. While potential tenants look at purchasing average residential sale price has grown it is still expected to see a slight increase sooner than they anticipated. and is expected to finish off 2014 with in price, it is anticipated to be less active as potential buyers wait to see if lower Condominiums and townhouses are an approximate six per cent gain to oil prices result in more favourable house expected to represent a growing share $483,000 from $456,000 in 2013. House prices. However, RE/MAX expects 2015 of the active marketplace, as long as price increases have been attributed to to be a balanced market, creating a more they are priced competitively. With good employment in the energy sector level playing field for buyers and sellers. increasing house prices, condominiums driving migration to the city. and townhouses are an affordable way to A combination of oil prices and dollar purchase real estate in the city. A city-wide Civic Census showed that value should have the greatest impact in April 2014, Calgary saw the migration on Calgary’s housing market in 2015. The city’s growth is prompting optimism of approximately 28,000 people to the One advantage is that most oil industry for its housing market in 2015. Today, area in the past 12 months, an increase corporations are being paid in the the population is close to 1,195,000, of about 1,800 compared to the previous American dollar, thereby lessening the and growing. There is a mild concern year. Migration has significantly impacted current effect of the low Canadian dollar. as to how the city will keep up with the real estate market fueling Calgary’s such growth, as new infrastructure consistent strong performance over the Calgary is projected to see a four per will be required. Despite this need, it past few years. However, in the fall of cent increase in unit sales and a more is anticipated that Calgary’s real estate 2014, the housing market started to show modest three per cent increase in market should continue to flourish a shift from a seller’s market to a more average residential sale price increasing to throughout 2015. balanced market, likely due to a decrease $497,500. AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Calgary) 2015** 2014* $497,500 $483,000 2013 $456,000 2012 2011 $412,315 $402,851 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 11
EDMONTON Demand for residential real estate in 38-storey high-rise condominium, Pearl Edmonton shows no signs of slowing Tower, is anticipating occupancy at the down. Low unemployment levels, strong end of 2014. economic performance in the oil and gas sector and Canada’s westward Condominiums represent a growing share migration contributed to an upswing in of the marketplace in all price ranges as the number of homes sold. Average prices construction continues in the downtown increased for all product types, with the core with 18 cranes and eight projects average residential sale price sitting at underway. In particular, in the luxury approximately $374,000, up $23,000 from market, pent houses in the Pearl Tower last year. sold between $1 - 2.5 million. Alberta leads the way in inter-provincial Edmonton’s luxury market has been migration with an estimated 30,000 setting new sales records over the last people settling in the Greater Edmonton three years. At the end of the third Area in the past year alone. Demand quarter of 2014, Realtors Association from new residents increased sales by of Edmonton reported a 29 per cent 10 per cent in the region. The growth is increase in sales over $1 million anticipated to be sustained over the next compared to last year. The Symphony few years as $5.2 billion in construction Tower, located in River Valley, is slated projects, such as Rogers Place, Stantec, for construction for early 2015 with four Royal Alberta Museum, and Delta units already sold for more than $1.5 Hotels and Resorts, are currently under million each. Record sales of multi-million construction in the downtown core. dollar listings are expected to continue into 2015. Sellers dominate in homes priced below A L B E RTA $400,000, which accounts for 65 per The outlook in Edmonton is optimistic cent of the market. Multiple offers with the inter-provincial migration are common in the lower end of the decreasing the average age of residents. market and pushed some first-time This younger demographic with well- buyers to consider properties in the paying employment is attracting more move-up market, where there is more mixed-use community developments inventory. This competition has also with residential, retail and commercial caused a tremendous resurgence in the components. As affordability has reduced condominium market. in the region over the past few years, prices are projected to climb four per The closure of City Centre Airport last cent, while inventory levels are expected year created development opportunities to be similar to the past two years, as previous height restrictions due to air trending slightly downwards. traffic safety have been lifted. The first AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Edmonton) $389,000 2014* 2013 $374,000 $351,000 2012 2011 $334,318 $325,395 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 12
S AS KAT CHEWAN SASKATOON for 45 to 60 days, and this is projected restrictions on mortgage lending. First- to increase by 15 to 20 days in 2015. An time buyers in Saskatoon are generally oversupply may put downward pressure able to meet the lending criteria and The housing market in Saskatoon on prices; however, with Saskatoon’s secure a mortgage to purchase their continued to be balanced in 2014, and healthy economy, steady demand and an home. Many first-time buyers in 2014 is expected to see little change in the anticipated slowdown in new builds, any were single professionals purchasing a coming year. The average residential impact on price is expected to be minor. new condo in one of Saskatoon’s up-and- sale price in 2014 was approximately coming neighbourhoods. $333,900, a slight 1.3 per cent decrease The higher than normal level of inventory from $338,309 in 2013. Total sales had the greatest impact on the upper- The Saskatoon economy is robust and increased modestly year-over-year, from end market in 2014. The ample supply is projected to continue to grow in the 2,756 sales in 2013 to 2,965 in 2014. meant that buyers were in no hurry. coming year. Its three main industries, This housing market is expected to While there were potential buyers who farming, mining, and oil and gas, are steady continue to be balanced in 2015 with no were interested in moving up and could and continue to employ many residents anticipated change in average residential afford to do so, the lack of urgency many in well-paying jobs. Unemployment is low, sale price. buyers felt meant that these sales took and the population is growing as workers longer than usual. Saskatoon is also a from other parts of the country are Inventory was higher than normal by traditionally conservative market, where moving to Saskatoon to fill newly-created approximately 15 to 18 per cent, which buyers are careful with their money and jobs. affected both price and days on market, take their time when making a purchase. though only slightly. A high level of inventory is expected to continue to Activity in the lower end of the housing have an impact on the market in 2015, market remained brisk. Unlike other though should affect days on market Canadian markets, the first-time buyer more than price. In 2014, residential market in Saskatoon has not felt much properties typically stayed on the market of an impact from CMHC’s tighter AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Saskatoon) 2013 $338,309 2014* 2015** 2012 $333,900 $333,900 $331,867 2011 $309,823 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 13
REGINA The average residential sale price in As the economy in Saskatchewan has Regina increased four per cent over the picked up and new jobs have been previous year to approximately $333,200, created, Regina is seeing people who despite a higher than normal number of grew up in the city moving back home listings for most of the year. The year from Calgary or Edmonton. This is started slowly, with the cold weather encouraging the older generation to stay delaying the normally busy spring market. in the city after retirement in order to This created a build-up of listings, which be near their children and grandchildren. had a psychological impact on the market. Many of these retirees are choosing to Though demand remained strong, there sell their house and downsize to a condo was no pressure on buyers. Summer in Regina and a second home somewhere and early fall were slower than usual, warm, such as Arizona. and up until October 1, the market was substantially down compared to 2013. A Unlike in many other markets, first- fast-paced October nearly caught 2014 time homebuyers in Regina haven’t been up to the previous year’s sales, and the affected by tightened mortgage lending year is expected to finish on par with criteria. Well-paying jobs and a good 2013. availability of affordable homes mean that young couples and singles are generally High inventory was the most significant able to qualify for a mortgage for the factor impacting the market in 2014, home of their choice. and although inventory is expected to remain high in 2015, a slowdown in The overall outlook for Regina next SA S K ATC H E WA N new development projects should help year is positive. The economy is strong stabilize the market. Regina is expected to and stable, and though lower oil prices shift from a buyer’s market to a balanced do have an impact, the economy is market by the end of next year. fairly diversified, with gold, potash and manufacturing playing an important The upper-end market was balanced role. Two large construction projects, a in 2014, and no change to this market new football stadium and a wastewater segment is expected for next year. treatment plant, are expected to bring Regina’s upper-end market is made new jobs to the city. up primarily of resale properties, and includes large bungalows, two-storey houses and two-storey splits. This market has grown over the past several years as Reginans, traditionally conservative with their savings, have become more comfortable with the idea of spending more on their homes. AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Regina) $346,500 2014* 2013 $333,200 $320,385 2012 2011 $301,332 $276,469 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 14
MANIT O BA in 2014 were condos. Most of these are of first-time buyers are driving the WINNIPEG new builds that are either still under construction or were recently completed. market in Winnipeg. One of these is new immigrants, who tend to prioritize home However, some of these listings are for ownership when choosing how to invest Winnipeg began 2014 as a seller’s market, units in older developments, coming their savings. The other group is young, but by the fall, an influx of inventory on the market as their owners, having two-income couples from Winnipeg had shifted it to a balanced market. downsized to a condo from a house a who work in service industries. With the Towards the end of 2014, there was an decade ago, are moving into retirement federal government’s plan to bring more abundance of choice for buyers. If the communities. In September, the average immigrants to Winnipeg next year, the trend continues, Winnipeg will likely be a number of days on the market for condo market should remain robust and sales buyer’s market in 2015. units was 40, up from 30 the previous are expected to increase. year. Despite an increase in inventory, the The outlook for Winnipeg is generally average sale price for both detached The CMHC’s stricter lending criteria positive. Its well-diversified economy is houses and condominium units rose have had an impact on the first-time steady and no significant changes are modestly. The average sale price for a buyer’s market in Winnipeg. Manitoba’s expected in the coming year. The return detached house rose to approximately land transfer tax, whose rates were set of its NHL team and the new Canadian $290,490 in 2014 from $282,894 in 2013, in the 1990s and haven’t been adjusted Museum for Human Rights show that while the average sale price of condo for today’s house prices, is a significant Winnipeg is becoming a destination city. units rose to approximately $236,639 burden for these buyers as well. These from $227,511. Prices are expected to two financial hurdles have made it difficult remain flat in 2015; high inventory should for first-time buyers to enter Winnipeg’s keep prices stable, but likely will not housing market in the past few years, and reduce prices. this is not expected to change in 2015. Much of the of inventory on the market Despite the challenges, two key groups AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Winnipeg) 2014* 2015** 2013 $285,800 $285,800 $274,373 2012 2011 $255,058 $241,409 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 15
O NTARIO motivating more resale properties to more homes selling in higher price ranges. WINDSOR- come on the market. Windsor-Essex is slowly recovering from a larger inventory Upper-end properties are selling more quickly and easily in Windsor-Essex than ESSEX shortage in 2013 and it is expected to require another year to fully balance. they ever have before. Twenty-five homes listed at $400,000 and above have sold to date in 2014, much more than in previous Windsor-Essex’s fall housing market First-time buyer activity has increased years. Many attribute this to a broadly- recovered by the end of 2014 from a due to favourable interest rates. accepted positive sentiment both buyers long winter and delayed spring. Increasing Affordability in the region is good for this and sellers have towards the market. A consumer confidence from buyers and demographic and increased affordability strong economy, favourable interest rates sellers buoyed the housing market as it because of low interest rates mean that and encouraging industry expansion in returned to its norm after a slow year. first-time buyers can purchase homes Windsor-Essex have put the market on Year-over-year sales data indicated that with higher value than the lower range. the rebound and are motivating buyers the market remained stable, as sales in As such, the greatest market activity is and sellers to engage with the market. 2014 were very similar to 2013. The in properties resting near the average average residential sale price in Windsor- price range in Windsor-Essex, between Essex County increased five per cent in $100,000 and $200,000. 2014, rising to approximately $192,200 from $183,518 in 2013. Consistency and balance should characterize Windsor-Essex’s housing There was a slight inventory shortage market throughout 2015. Property values in 2014, and the housing market in the are expected to increase roughly five per coming year is expected to experience a cent in 2015. New homes continue to similar shortage. However, if demand for earn market share and often come with new homes continues to grow, pressure much higher price tags. In fact, compared should be taken off of the resale market, to previous years, the market has seen AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Windsor-Essex) $201,800 2014* 2013 $192,200 2012 $183,518 $175,581 2011 $170,034 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 16
O NTARIO positive, making sellers optimistic when would bring the average residential LONDON- approaching the housing market. London experienced greater industrial investment property price in London-St. Thomas to approximately $260,500. If the ST. THOMAS in the previous year, partly due to a lower Canadian dollar compared to the U.S. unemployment rate continues to decrease in London-St. Thomas, and dollar across the border. Additionally, interest rates stay low, the area is Residential property sales in Ontario’s interest rates have stayed relatively expected to maintain its balanced market. London-St. Thomas area remained stable low since 2008 and are continuing to London-St. Thomas continues to draw the throughout 2014. A fall surge of market encourage activity in London’s balanced attention of buyers from cities such as activity made up for a slow spring due market. A slowly strengthening U.S. Toronto, who are drawn to the area for to a longer than expected winter. By economy, affordable housing, and market its affordable housing. These buyers are the end of October, sales exceeded optimism have all positively impacted expected to further explore London’s last year’s benchmark. In fact, October the residential housing market. With housing market throughout 2015. 2014 saw more market activity than London’s stable economy, move-up buyers any previous October since 2007. The and first-time homebuyers continue to average residential sale price in London- increase their share of market activity. St. Thomas increased a modest 3.4 per The majority of transactions involving this cent in the past year, rising to $254,200 group occurs in the $200,000-$300,000 from $245,737. With 7,474 units already range, which is the most popular range sold by the end of October, compared to for housing sales. 6,947 in 2013, the market is expected to even out with approximately 8,300 sales The London-St. Thomas residential by the end of the year. housing market is expected to maintain its stability throughout 2015, with a The economic outlook of London- modest average price increase of two St. Thomas has been increasingly to three per cent anticipated. This AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (London-St. Thomas) $260,500 2014* $254,200 2013 2012 $245,737 2011 $238,822 $232,387 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 17
SUDBURY The northern Ontario city, known as a rise in inventory. Canada’s nickel capital, had a slow start to the year as the long and cold winter First-time homebuyers are expected deterred potential buyers and sellers to continue to play a large role in the from entering the real estate market. market, with interest from investors This resulted in a 14 per cent decline cooling off as vacancy rates increase. in units sold between January and April Sales in the upper-end market should also of 2014, compared to the same period remain strong. the previous year. The market picked up considerably through the summer, and by As in any resource-based economy, the end of October, the year-over-year Sudbury’s real estate market is heavily decrease in sales had narrowed to 9.6 per tied to the performance of nickel and cent. copper. The outlook for the coming year is optimistic. The newly reopened Totten Despite fewer sales, the average nickel mine, Sudbury’s first new mine in residential sale price increased in 40 years, should create employment and 2014 to approximately $255,400 from Laurentian University’s new School of $250,518 the previous year. This increase Architecture is expected to draw people of around two per cent was due to a to the city. proportionately higher number of sales at the higher-end of the market. In 2015, prices are expected to rise by one to two per cent and an increase in listings is anticipated. The market is expected to remain balanced, though shift slightly toward favouring the buyer. O N TAR I O Wages in Sudbury are expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future, sustaining the ability of residents to continue purchasing new and resale homes. New construction is expected to grow by two per cent following weak demand in 2014. A proposed increase in development charges in 2016 is likely to spur the construction of a higher than usual number of detached homes in the third quarter of 2015. The average number of days on market is expected to remain steady at around 73 days, despite AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Sudbury) 2015** $259,500 2014* 2013 $255,400 2012 $250,518 2011 $247,462 $234,544 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 18
O NTARIO technology companies more than picked significant demand for student housing KITCHENER- up the slack when BlackBerry’s fortunes turned a number of years ago. In addition, each year. While student housing historically spilled into established WATERLOO there is an established insurance industry in Kitchener-Waterloo, which also helps residential neighbourhoods, purpose- built developments are being planned diversify the local economy. Well-paying to accommodate students. Parts of the The residential real estate market in jobs and well-educated workers should Northdale area near the University Kitchener-Waterloo was very active continue to drive the real estate market. of Waterloo, for example, are being through 2014 and is expected to remain redeveloped complete with high-rise healthy in 2015. The average residential Kitchener-Waterloo is in a balanced buildings. While there is a sense that the sale price for a single family dwelling market. While multiple offer scenarios condominium market may slow down in rose to an estimated $336,900 in 2014, present themselves occasionally, there the near term, condos should represent a an increase of approximately 4 per cent is usually a good selection of listings growing share of the market, particularly over the previous year. Residential unit for buyers. Recent municipal elections around the light rail corridor. sales increased by approximately three saw new mayors for both cities, both per cent in 2014 and are expected to of whom support the construction of increase by approximately two per cent a new planned light rail line. This has in 2015, with a one per cent increase in already boosted real estate prices around unit sales. the corridor through which the line is expected to run. In addition, Google is Kitchener-Waterloo’s transformation expected to move into new facilities in into a high-tech hub began more than Kitchener in 2015, bringing new, well- a decade ago. While BlackBerry, once a paying jobs. global technology powerhouse, put the region on the map, the dozens if not Kitchener-Waterloo is home to two hundreds of established and emerging universities and one college creating a AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Kitchener-Waterloo) 2015** $342,800 2014* 2013 $336,900 $323,771 2012 2011 $311,006 $301,010 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 19
HAMILTON-BURLINGTON The major trend characterizing properties in Hamilton Mountain, and Hamilton’s real estate market in 2014 multiple offers were common. Its older was an influx of buyers from the Greater homes and vibrant communities make it Toronto Area looking to the city for a desirable destination for buyers from more affordable single-family homes. This the GTA looking to get more space for increase of activity in the Hamilton real their money. The increase of buyers from estate market has spurred development, the GTA is a key driver of demand in particularly in the city’s historic Hamilton and this is expected to continue downtown. The average residential sale to represent an increasing market price in Hamilton in 2014 is an estimated segment in the coming year. The luxury $319,300, and it is expected to increase market, particularly those properties by approximately three per cent in 2015. priced between $750,000 and $1 million, was brisk in 2014, with sales up In neighbouring Burlington, situated to approximately 30 per cent year-over-year. the east of Hamilton, demand for condos downtown and on the waterfront has The overall outlook for the region is greatly increased. The average number bright. The manufacturing sector, a key of days on market for these units has driver of the Hamilton economy, has been steadily decreasing over the past been growing, and a 12 per cent increase three to five years, and new projects in manufacturing jobs was reported for coming onto the market are renewing 2014. Health care is the region’s largest interest. Downtown Burlington’s vibrant sector, and a newly-opened hospital mix of shopping, restaurants, and culture should continue to bring new jobs to the is drawing buyers, particularly Baby area. There was a five per cent increase Boomers, to condo units in the area. of full-time jobs in Hamilton in 2014, The average residential sale price was which should have a positive impact on O N TAR I O approximately $512,500 in 2014, and is the housing market. The overall average anticipated to increase by approximately residential sale price in the Hamilton- two per cent next year. Burlington region was approximately $406,900 in 2014, an increase from the Burlington, with its closer proximity to previous year, and it is expected to rise the Greater Toronto Area, is typically between two and three per cent in 2015. the more expensive of the two cities. However, in October 2014, the average Most of the region was a seller’s market sale price in Ancaster, an area of in 2014, and 2015 should likely see the Hamilton, was $541,922 – higher than in region move into a balanced market, Burlington in the same period ($539,363), especially for upper-end properties. which has never happened in the past. Demand was very high in 2014 for AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Hamilton-Burlington) $417,900 2014* 2013 $406,900 $383,840 2012 2011 $360,059 $333,498 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 20
O NTARIO commute to downtown Toronto easier The condo market is starting to BARRIE for these residents. emerge in Barrie, drawing both the single professional and empty nesters. Retirees from the GTA are another Market Town Condominiums, a multi- The average residential sale price in demographic driving demand in Barrie. residential development currently under Barrie was approximately $318,700 in These buyers are looking for a quieter construction, has been performing 2014, an increase of an estimated 3.4 community, but want to be near family well in pre-sales. Other condominium per cent over 2013. An increase of and friends in the city. These two groups developments are being planned for the approximately one per cent in average of buyers from the GTA are expected to next several years, as the city aims to residential sale price is projected in 2015, continue to drive demand in the coming increase its density by building up. continuing Barrie’s steady growth over year. the past several years. Several factors prompt optimism for Supply has been generally low in Barrie Barrie’s residential real estate market Barrie’s proximity to the Greater for the past decade and active residential next year and in the years to come. Toronto Area draws both young families listings were down in 2014 from the The Go Train is continually adding lines and retirees to the area. Many first- previous year. Demand is high, creating in the region, opening more areas to time buyers are professional couples a seller’s market for properties that commuters. There have been preliminary who commute to the GTA for work, are priced well. Buyers in this market discussions about widening Highway 400 and are purchasing a home in order to are savvy, and while multiple offers are from six lanes to ten between Highway start a family. They often plan to move common for properties that are priced 89 and the 400/11 split, which would back to the GTA, but become attached correctly, listings that are not well-priced decrease commute times and make the to the lifestyle Barrie offers, such as the can remain on the market for several area more attractive to buyers. Barrie’s proximity to nature and recreational months. Barrie is expected to remain a proximity to the GTA is expected to activities, and end up moving up within seller’s market for well-priced properties continue to drive demand in the region Barrie instead. Go Train service, which in 2015. and keep the residential real estate began operating in 2012, has made the market vibrant in 2015. AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (Barrie) 2015** 2014* $320,900 $318,700 2013 $308,200 2012 2011 $299,685 $287,588 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 21
O NTARIO residential development. St. Catharines as out-of-town investors recognize the ST. has drawn other significant investments including the Meridian Centre, Niagara value of St. Catharines’ real estate. Over the past year, St Catharines has seen a CATHARINES Outlet Mall (Canada’s largest open-air shopping mall), the continued expansion substantial increase in homes priced over $1 million, and an increase of 22 per of the Niagara Health System, and a new cent in homes priced between $500,000 Due to an extended winter and a downtown campus of Brock University. and $900,000. The upper-end market is shorter than usual spring in 2014, St. expected to continue growing throughout Catharines experienced its usual spring Good health-care resources, combined 2015. activity in early fall. Throughout 2014, with affordable property values, are sales increased by approximately two encouraging retirees from Mississauga Inventory is projected to decrease in per cent. This coincided with an increase and Toronto to pursue residential 2015, lowering the average number of in the average residential sale price to properties in St. Catharines. Additionally, days on the market. As in 2014, homes an estimated $269,800 in 2014 from postsecondary institution expansion has priced appropriately between $250,000 $258,595 in 2013, an increase of 4.3 per brought an influx of students. Demand and $300,000 should continue to cent. The increase in sales activity and from students looking for rentals has command the most attention by buyers. slight increase in value resulted in an 11.4 drawn the attention of out-of-town per cent decrease in average days on the investors looking to develop residential market. rental properties in the area. In 2014, there were several major In the condominium market, high fees investments in the St. Catharines region. have encouraged buyers to pursue Most recently, the General Motors plant home ownership for similar prices. The sold to developers expecting to use condominium market remains stable, the 54 acres for mixed use, potentially but not growing. On the other hand, including research, industrial and the upper-end market is rapidly growing AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE (St. Catharines) 2015** $283,300 2014* 2013 $269,800 2012 $258,595 2011 $253,469 $244,630 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 22
GREATER TORONTO AREA The residential real estate market in Canada’s largest city continued showing healthy market activity in 2014, with both the average residential sale price and the number of transactions showing an increase over the previous year. Inventory continued to be very low among freehold properties and average days on the market fell from 25 the previous year to 23. The average residential sale price is projected to increase four per cent in 2015. With rising prices and limited inventory, potential buyers will need to be well prepared and informed when entering the housing market next year. In the past, modest, but under-valued, homes sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars above asking price in some areas of the city and the effect was that buyers entered the market with no certainty about what kind of home they could afford. In turn, sellers came to the conclusion that their homes were all of sudden worth more than they actually were. More realistic pricing in 2014 has inspired confidence among buyers—a trend that is expected to continue in 2015. Toronto should remain a seller’s market, although the condominium market is projected to be more balanced as developers release inventory and investors seek to unload their units. Many first- time buyers should continue to look to the condominium market, attracted by affordable options in convenient locations. Downsizers may not play as much of a role in this market as had once been expected, as many buyers in this group have been deterred by unpredictable assessment funds and condo fees. O NTA R I O The recent municipal election has brought a feeling of stability to the city, which generally proves well for local real estate. With political stability and the city set to be showcased by the 2015 Pan AM Games, pent-up demand may result in strong price appreciation in the latter portion of 2015. The luxury market will continue to display strength, as wealthy buyers are comfortable 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 23
absorbing any modest price fluctuations. Mississauga’s real estate market picked downtown Mississauga are attracting However, as inventory for freehold homes up in the second half of 2014 following younger buyers to those areas. continues to be at historic lows, the city a long and cold winter and historically is projected to be poised to have another late start to the market. Typically, the In Mississauga’s brisk housing market, strong year of price appreciation. spring buying and selling season begins well-priced homes sold within days in in February, whereas last year it started 2014, although properties over $1 million MISSISSAUGA in May. Pent-up demand made for a busy typically had listing periods of between summer season and more fall activity one and two months. A seller’s market is Mississauga, which borders the City of than is typical. The average residential expected to continue through to 2015 Toronto on the west, has grown by leaps price is expected to rise between two but soften modestly, especially in the and bounds over the past several decades. and three per cent in 2015 with inventory luxury segment where it is moving closer While its growth is typified by suburban levels remaining steady. to a balanced market. developments, the city also boasts leafy neighbourhoods, lakefront properties and New luxury homes on leafy lots in OAKVILLE a burgeoning downtown. These factors, neighbourhoods such as Lorne Park along with its transit links to downtown and parts of Port Credit are enticing The market for residential real estate in Toronto, are driving demand for wealthier buyers and bringing a more Oakville, an affluent community situated residential property in Mississauga among multicultural character to the area. A on the shores of Lake Ontario between a range of buyers. regular train service from Port Credit Toronto and Hamilton, showed strong to Toronto and new condominiums in growth in 2014. The average residential AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE 2015** (Greater Toronto Area) $589,100 2014* $566,400 2013 $522,963 2012 $497,150 2011 $465,412 *Estimate **Forecast - Source: Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 24
sale price rose 12 per cent over the New Canadians from China are playing Canadians, and it is not uncommon for previous year, to approximately $800,000 a growing role in the market as well, these buyers to prefer large homes to in 2014 from $715,000 in 2013. With purchasing lakefront properties, some of accommodate multi-generational and less inventory on the market than in which exceed $10 million. extended families. However, some seniors, the previous year, days on the market who have come to Canada under family fell from an average of 32 in 2013 to 27. All signs point to continued strength in sponsorship, are using their savings Oakville’s residential real estate market is the Oakville market in 2015. While the as down payments and moving from expected to remain robust in 2015, with number of listings is expected to remain apartments to condominiums, challenging the average sale price increasing by an consistent, a decrease in inventory is the notion of what it means to be a first- estimated five per cent. projected to result in an increase in time homebuyer. the average residential sale price. New While Oakville remained a seller’s market construction in the north end of Oakville Move-up buyers continued to drive in 2014, it began shifting to a more and a soon-to-be-completed hospital is the market in Brampton, with lending balanced market in the late summer and expected to play a role in driving demand. conditions favourable enough for buyers fall. Appropriately priced homes moved to hold on to two properties. The coming quickly and with competing offers, while BRAMPTON year should move from a seller’s market homes priced above their market value to a more balanced market as inventory were slow to sell. First-time homebuyers The residential real estate market in is projected to increase. play a very marginal role in driving Brampton, a growing city bordering this market, as most properties are northwest Toronto, is set to finish 2014 Luxury sales are expected to remain comparably expensive. strong and carry momentum into 2015. robust in the coming year. Homes in this While low interest rates have positively segment are typically set on one to two- What would be considered a luxury influenced the market, the arrival of acre lots. Many prospective buyers in this home in many communities across more and more newcomers has also market segment are entrepreneurs who Canada is typical in Oakville. Entire played a role in growing this multicultural have found success in the tool and die, neighborhoods comprise homes over community. The market is anticipated automotive or trucking industries. 3,000 square feet outfitted with premium to calm to a degree in 2015 and an finishes like walk-in closets and chef’s increase in the average residential sale The real estate market in Brampton kitchens—and price tags around $1 price of between five and 10 per cent is could suffer if the municipal government million. The luxury market is driven by anticipated. were to implement a land transfer tax buyers who value the quality of the similar to Toronto. Conversely, any one area’s schools, amenities and lakefront. Brampton is home to many South Asian of a number of factors, such as a new 2015 Housing Market Outlook Report | 25
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