Hotel Market Snapshot Italy - pwc.com/it
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Hotel Investments (€m) In 2020, hotel investments 3,500 recorded a decrease of 75% 3,000 -75% compared to the previous year. Var% 20vs19 The volume invested in 2019, 2,500 which was the best year on record for hotel investments in Italy 2,000 thanks in part to the Belmond +23% portfolio transaction, reached 1,500 Var% H1 21vs20 around €3.3bn, while in 2020 investments were just under €1bn. 1,000 For the first half of 2021, hotel 510 investments reached €510 mln, 500 c. 20% above investments for the same period in 2020, showing 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 H1 2021 positives signs of recovery. The majority of hotel transactions in the first half of 2021 were executed by international private equity investors, snapping up properties in Venice and Florence, which are traditional hotel investment markets along with Rome and Milan. Investor Investor Date Property Name City Category Keys Buyer Seller type origin Cortina Attestor Capital Jun-21 Hotel Cristallo 5-stars 72 Paolo Gualandi Private equity International d’Ampezzo LLP Jun-21 Hotel M89 Milan 4-stars 55 Star Gestion Srl Torre Sgr Private equity National Toscana Resort Montaione Incorp Holdings May-21 5-stars 151 TUI Family office International Castelfalfi (Tuscany) B.V. (Lohia Family) ECE European Bonvecchiati May-21 Venice 5-stars 191 Lodging Recovery Eligio Paties JV International Complex Fund NH Anglo Apr-21 Florence 4-stars 115 Oaktree Immobiliare Uno Srl Private equity International American Hotel Hilton Florence Apr-21 Florence 4-stars 212 Pygmalion Capital Millenaria Srl Private equity International Metropole Hilton Garden Inn Apr-21 Florence 4-stars 121 Pygmalion Capital Millenaria Srl Private equity International Florence Novoli Baglioni Hotel Feb-21 Venice 5-stars 93 Reuben Brothers Baglioni Hotels Private equity International Luna Star Hotel, Feidos, The Pantheon InvestiRE SGR Nov-20 Rome 5-stars 79 York Capital, DeA Institutional National Iconic Rome SpA Capital Real Estate Dedica Anthology Sep-20 Various Various 488 Covivio Hotels Varde Partners Institutional International Portfolio 2020 Blue Skye May-20 Bauer Palazzo Venice 5-stars 210 Signa Group Investment, Elliott Private equity International Management Ancora di Cortina Cortina Red Circle May-20 4-stars 49 Cusinato family Family office National Hotel d’Ampezzo Investments Jan-20 Hotel La Palma Capri 5-stars 72 Reuben Brothers RBD Armatori Private equity International
Tourism Demand Italy before the pandemic recorded more than 400 million bednights evenly distributed between domestic and international, which was cut in half during 2020 and mainly supported by national demand. The first 5 months of 2021 show that the market is still being supported by national demand. 500,000 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 400,000 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 300,000 49% 49% 50% 50% 51% Avg Length of stay (days) Bednights (Thousands) 2.0 200,000 1.5 31% 1.0 100,000 51% 51% 50% 50% 49% 69% 53% 43% 0.5 22% 47% 0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD May YTD May YTD May 2019 2020 2021 Domestic International AVG length of stay Source: PwC analysis Arrivals Forecasts (base = 2019) Domestic tourism demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, while the international demand recovery is delayed until 2024. 20% 16% 12% 2% 0% 5% (5%) (18%) (21%) (20%) (40%) (48%) (60%) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Domestic International Source: PwC analysis
Recovery tracker Main Italian Provinces Across the 4 main Italian hotel markets, RevPAR performance in 2020 was severely impacted mainly from a substantial decrease in occupancy. 2021 RevPAR is showing first signs of recovery from a rising ADR, although still below pre-pandemic levels, as occupancy continues to remain low. RevPAR Trend - YTD August Main Provinces Italy 180€ -61% 160€ Avg decrease RevPar 2021 vs 2019 140€ 120€ 100€ 80€ 60€ 40€ 20€ 0€ Milan Rome Florence Venice 2019 2020 2021 Occupancy Variation - YTD August Main Provinces Italy (Base=2019) 40% -65% Avg decrease Occupancy 20% 2021 vs 2019 0% (20%) (40%) (60%) (80%) (100%) Milan Rome Florence Venice 2020 2021 ADR Variation - YTD August Main Provinces Italy (Base=2019) 40% +5% Avg increase ADR 20% 2021 vs 2019 0% (20%) (40%) (60%) (80%) (100%) Milan Rome Florence Venice 2020 2021 Source: PwC analysis on AICA
Category trend in Italy Throughout Italy, RevPAR performance across all categories in 2020 was severely impacted mainly from a substantial decrease in occupancy. The 5-star category in 2021 is showing signs of recovery from a strong increase in ADR, while performance in the 4-star and 3-star categories remains relatively flat. RevPAR Trend - YTD August By Category Italy 350€ -54% 300€ Avg decrease RevPar 2021 vs 2019 250€ 200€ 150€ 100€ 50€ 0€ 5-star 4-star 3-star 2019 2020 2021 Occupancy Variation - YTD August By Category Italy (Base=2019) 40% -55% Avg decrease Occupancy 20% 2021 vs 2019 0% (20%) (40%) (60%) (80%) (100%) 5-star 4-star 3-star 2020 2021 ADR Variation - YTD August By Category Italy (Base=2019) 40% -1% Avg increase ADR 20% 2021 vs 2019 0% (20%) (40%) (60%) (80%) (100%) 5-star 4-star 3-star 2020 2021 Source: PwC analysis on AICA
Key takeaways Hotel investment volumes in 2020 in Italy What is currently a winning proposition are seaside were just under 1 bn euro, which is expected destinations which are already showing positive signs of to be surpassed in 2021, returning towards recovery as 2021 ADR returns to pre-pandemic levels levels recorded in 2016-2018, although still along with an increasing occupancy. In fact, GOP margins below 2019. of seaside hotels catering to domestic demand remained mostly positive during 2020 while hotels in the main cities recorded losses. The majority of hotel transactions in the first half of 2021 were executed by 5-star hotels in drive-to seaside destinations, which international private equity investors, are also easily accessible by international demand, snapping up properties in Venice and are so far the recovery leaders. Florence, which are traditional hotel investment markets along with Rome and Milan. There is a vibrant hotel pipeline as around 100 hotels with over 17,000 new rooms are expected to enter the After the pandemic, there will be supply of which more than 65% are opportunities for underinvested currently under refurbishment or hotels in strong locations to under development. receive a capital injection and to be repositioned and/or rebranded, especially the business hotel segment. Those situations are currently receiving special interest from value add/opportunistic real estate investors which have the capability to either invest in the debt/equity structure or to purchase the asset.
Contacts Antonio Martino Federico Colacicchi Partner - Real Estate Deals Leader Partner - Transaction Services & Hospitality +39 346 785 5519 +39 349 821 7906 antonio.martino@pwc.com federico.colacicchi@pwc.com Christopher Haug Leone Recchi Senior Manager Senior Manager +39 345 021 4140 +39 331 674 2081 christopher.haug@pwc.com leone.recchi@pwc.com
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