GREEN JOBS EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS - LOUISIANA WORKFORCE COMMISSION WWW.LMI.LAWORKS.NET/GREEN
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Green Jobs Employment Projections Louisiana Workforce Commission www.LMI.LaWorks.net/Green September 2011
In 2009, Louisiana and Mississippi partnered to research economic
development opportunities and workforce needs associated with
the region’s green economy. Through a $2.3 million grant from the
U.S. Department of Labor, a consortium of the Louisiana Workforce
Commission, Louisiana State University, Mississippi Department of
Employment Security, and Mississippi State University conducted
an extensive study of economic activity that is beneficial to the
environment. This and other research products were developed as
part of that effort.
This workforce solution was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. The solution was created by the grantee and does not neces-
sarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such
information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or
ownership. This solution is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other
uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.Green Jobs Employment Projections
Executive Summary................................................................ii
Introduction...........................................................................1
Methodology..........................................................................1
Industry Forecasts...........................................................2
Occupational Forecasts...................................................3 Contents
Overall Results......................................................................3
Conclusion..............................................................................7
Tables and Figures
Table 1: Green Jobs Projections by Industry............................................. 5
Table 2: Green Jobs Projections by Occupation........................................ 6
On the cover: Lake Borgne shoreline protection.
Photo © Chris Macaluso /Governor’s Office of Coastal Activities
iGreen Jobs Employment Projections
This document summarizes the methodology and results of the
green jobs employment forecasts. Key results of the forecast were:
j The overall projected number of green jobs1 in Louisiana is
expected to be 101,319 in 2011; 102,160 in 2012; 104,652 in 2015;
and 111,196 in 2020.
j The fastest growing industry sectors are Utilities and Other
Manufacturing with ten-year growth in total green jobs of 27.6
and 26.8 percent, respectively.
j Industry sectors contributing the highest number of green jobs
Executive Summary are Health Care and Social Assistance and Construction with
3,011 and 1,505 jobs respectively over the ten-year period.
j The major occupation groups with the fastest growth in total
green jobs are Healthcare Support Occupations and Healthcare
Practitioners and Technical Occupations, which are projected to
grow at 23.7 percent and 20.6 percent, respectively over the
ten-year horizon. Most of that growth is caused by the overall
demand for health care and the support green jobs that will be
created as a natural part of that trend.
j The major occupation groups with that will contribute the highest
number of green jobs over the ten-year horizon are Construction
and Extraction Occupations, Production Occupations and Office
and Administrative Support Occupations with 1,838, 1,297 and
1,282 jobs respectively.
1
A primary green job is defined as one where more than 50 percent of an employee’s
time is devoted to one of the seven green activity categories: renewable energy;
energy efficiency; greenhouse gas reduction; pollution reduction and clean-up;
recycling and waste reduction; sustainable agriculture, natural resource conservation
and coastal restoration; and education, compliance, public awareness and training
supporting the other categories. Unless specified, “green jobs” refers to the sum of
both primary and support green jobs.
iiGreen Jobs Employment Projections
Introduction
This document summarizes the methodology for developing a projection of green jobs
at the one, two, five and ten year horizons based on the 2010 estimate provided by the
Louisiana Green Jobs Survey. This consists of combining the survey results with the state’s
overall occupation projections and making adjustments to account for known changes in the
coming years that are not captured by long-run trends. In addition, this report will provide a
summary of the results with the key finding that green jobs are expected to grow at a rate
faster than the rest of the economy across most industries.
Methodology
The starting point for the green employment projections is the 2010 estimated baseline
provided by the Louisiana Green Jobs Survey. The survey results show an estimated 30,205
primary green jobs across all sectors, which represents 1.6 percent of Louisiana’s nonfarm
employment. An estimated 67,591 support green jobs2 raises the total number of jobs
involved in green activity categories to 97,796 jobs or 5.3 percent of nonfarm employment.
Because the survey sample was drawn from the Enhanced Quarterly Unemployment
Insurance database, the industry of each firm surveyed is known and coded using the North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Therefore, results for total green jobs
are available for all industries, providing a clear starting point for developing employment
projections by industry.
On the other hand, occupation data was collected only for primary green jobs limiting the
opportunity for developing occupation-level projections directly from the survey results.
While it would be feasible to limit the focus of the employment projections to address only
primary green jobs, it was determined that separating primary and support green jobs and
thereby estimating the portion of time that workers will devote to green activities many
years in the future was untenable. Instead, projections by occupation are developed for total
green jobs using a methodology similar to the overall employment projections whereby
industry forecasts are developed first and then converted to occupational projections using
staffing patterns. Therefore, the projections effort focused on the total number of green jobs
at each time horizon using 97,796 jobs in 2010 as the baseline.
2
Support green jobs are defined as those essential to an organization’s involvement in one of the activity categories,
but not requiring more than 50 percent of an employee’s effort.
1Green Jobs Employment Projections
Industry Forecasts
Estimates of primary and support jobs can be separated by industry to provide a clear
baseline for the employment projections by industry. To ensure sufficient sample sizes for
the industry-based estimates and facilitate the conversion to occupational forecasts, most
industries are grouped using 2-digit NAICS sectors. As elsewhere in this research project,
the manufacturing sector was broken into three subgroups that do not align with a pre-
defined 2-digit NAICS code in order to provide results complementary to other research
products.
Baseline growth rates for each industry were developed using the state’s overall
employment projections by industry. To help guide policy makers, workforce development
efforts, education and training providers, businesses and other stakeholders, the Louisiana
Workforce Commission develops employment projections for industries and occupations
at the regional and statewide level. Every two years, a new set of forecasts is developed
with the most recent estimates covering the period 2008-2018. While a full revision of
those forecasts occurs only every two years, LWC ensures that those projections provide
the timeliest guidance to stakeholders by collaborating with LSU to update the projections
during the off year. This revision incorporates the effects of major changes to the economy
that have occurred since the previous release. That updated forecast was used as a basis
for developing growth rates in the green economy at the 2-digit NAICS industry level.
Those baseline growth rates were applied to the 2010 survey results to create preliminary
employment projections for total green jobs by industry.
Several steps were taken to adjust the baseline green jobs projections. First, the effects
of projects funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) as well as
expected changes to coastal restoration spending were incorporated at the industry level
based on the two impact studies included in the broader green jobs research effort. ARRA
spending on projects with a significant green component was already well underway at
the time of the survey. However, total annual spending on those projects was expected
to increase further in 2011 before declining gradually from 2012 to 2015 when the largest
ARRA-funded green project is scheduled for completion. We allowed for temporary and
permanent increases to green employment depending on the nature of the projects
affecting each industry. The “high” funding scenario from the coastal restoration spending
impact study was used to account for expected changes in both the overall level of funding
and expected mix of projects..
In addition, economic development wins and other major employment-related
announcements from Louisiana employers were incorporated. An example of using a
well-publicized project to revise the projection can be found in the Other Manufacturing
sector, which will benefit from Blade Dynamics, a new wind turbine blade manufacturing
facility that is projected to open in New Orleans by 2015 bringing with it 600 jobs. Therefore,
the forecasts for 2015 and 2020 were revised to account for that expected increase in
employment in 2015, which should be sustained through the end of the forecast horizon.
The final step in developing the industry projections was to consider add factors for several
industries where green employment growth was expected to occur at a different rate
from the overall sector. These were developed using other studies investigating trends
in the green economy as well as qualitative information on the future growth potential
2Green Jobs Employment Projections
accumulated through this research effort. While these add factors are expected to contribute
to the accuracy of industry-level forecasts, they contributed only a small portion of the
overall projected growth in green jobs.
Occupational Forecasts
To develop the occupational projections, industry-level forecasts are converted to
occupation-level forecasts using staffing patterns that identify how many people in each
industry are associated with various occupations. Because the distribution of occupations
within an industry may differ between green and non-green jobs, green staffing patterns
were developed using the data collected through the Louisiana Green Jobs Survey. Since
occupations were collected only for primary green jobs, those green staffing patterns relate
only to primary green jobs. Because support green jobs are expected to exhibit the broader
patterns in the economy, the staffing patterns used in the normal occupational forecasting
efforts were used as well. The portion of green jobs in each industry that were considered
primary according to the survey results was distributed across occupations using the green
staffing patterns. Similarly the portion of jobs in each industry that were considered support
according to the survey results was distributed across occupations using the overall staffing
patterns. The results of these two conversions were then combined across industries
to provide the distribution of total green jobs at each time horizon by 2-digit Standard
Occupation Classification (SOC) code.
Overall Results
The key finding of this forecasting effort is that green jobs3 are anticipated to grow at a faster
rate in Louisiana than total employment. Green jobs projected to grow by 13.8 percent over
the 10-year projection horizon relative to 8.6 percent growth for total employment according
to the most recent 10-year projection. Table 1 shows the projection results at the 1, 2, 5 and
10-year horizons by industry. Overall, green jobs are expected to grow rapidly between 2010
and 2011 as stimulus funding grows and as several large economic development projects
move forward. That growth will slow through 2012 and 2015 as the effects of the stimulus
wanes. However, growth will accelerate again between 2015 and 2020 as spending on
coastal restoration projects grows and the underlying growth of green activities in other
sectors pushes green employment upward.
The sectors with fastest growth in total green jobs are Utilities and Other Manufacturing
with 10-year growth of 27.6 and 26.8 percent, respectively. The Other Manufacturing sector
includes transportation manufacturers like Caddo Manufacturing that will expand operations
to build electric boats and recreation vehicles. Other Manufacturing also includes Blade
Dynamics, the wind turbine blade manufacturer that will add 600 jobs to the sector by 2015.
Sectors contributing the highest number of jobs are Health Care and Social Assistance and
Construction with 3,011 and 1,505 jobs respectively over the 10 year period. The high level
of growth in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector is driven by the combination
3
“Green jobs” refers to all green jobs, primary and support, unless otherwise mentioned
3Green Jobs Employment Projections
of the high overall growth rate within the sector and the large size of the overall sector,
not necessarily any unique trends within the context of green jobs in that industry. The
significant number of new green jobs in the Construction sector reflects both the gradual
greening of the Construction sector as a whole and the anticipated jobs required in the initial
phases of large-scale green ventures throughout the forecast horizon.
For industries exhibiting significant growth, training providers will play a key role in
addressing the potential skills deficit that may arise given that the Louisiana Green Jobs
Survey showed nearly 50 percent of primary green jobs required unique skills compared to
workers with the same job titles that do not work in a green activity category.
The results by occupation are shown in Table 2. In terms of occupations, the major groups
with the fastest growth are Healthcare Support Occupations and Healthcare Practitioners
and Technical Occupations, which are projected to grow at 23.7 percent and 20.6 percent,
respectively over the 10-year horizon. As with the Health Care and Social Assistance
industry, most of the growth in these two occupation groups is caused by the overall
demand for health care and the support green jobs that will be created as a natural part of
that trend.
The major occupation groups with that will contribute the highest number of green jobs over
the ten-year horizon are Construction and Extraction Occupations, Production Occupations
and Office and Administrative Support Occupations with 1,838, 1,297 and 1,282 jobs
respectively. An example of an occupation in the Construction and Extraction occupation
group is a construction worker installing energy efficient materials and equipment. Within
the Production Occupations group, an occupation that would be classified as green would
be an assembler or fabricator at a manufacturing facility that creates green goods. Within
the Office and Administrative Support Occupations, a sustainability officer would be a clear
example of an occupation that would be classified as green.
4Green Jobs Employment Projections
Table 1: Green Jobs Projections by Industry
INDUSTRY FORECAST NAICS 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020
Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry, and Hunting 11 2,196 2,153 2,111 1,990 1,803
Mining 21 7,322 7,388 7,451 7,614 7,893
Utilities 22 588 630 656 690 751
Construction 23 7,092 9,167 8,744 7,301 8,598
Food, Fibers and Wood Products Manufacturing 311-316
321-322 337 2,551 2,664 2,677 2,714 2,762
Petroleum, Chemical, Plastics, and 324-326
Rubber Products Manufacturing 323, 327, 2,752 2,816 2,902 3,068 3,241
Other Manufacturing 331-336, 339 3,308 3,475 3,491 4,131 4,195
Wholesale Trade 42 7,825 7,921 8,014 8,280 8,747
Retail Trade 44-45 6,089 6,065 6,113 6,234 6,451
Transportation and Warehousing 48-49 3,509 3,535 3,561 3,841 3,990
Finance and Insurance 52 1,097 1,116 1,132 1,174 1,248
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 53 1,855 1,876 1,895 1,936 2,009
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 54 4,863 5,068 5,202 5,402 5,659
Administrative and Waste Services 56 8,308 8,455 8,578 8,924 9,535
Educational Services 61 7,617 7,702 7,788 8,050 8,442
Health Care and Social Assistance 62 13,767 14,042 14,323 15,198 16,778
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 71 1,040 1,046 1,050 1,062 1,083
Accommodation and Food Services 72 5,532 5,633 5,733 6,033 6,569
Other Services, Except Public Administration 81 4,761 4,896 5,013 5,148 5,387
Public Administration 90 5,330 5,393 5,446 5,575 5,761
Total* 97,675 101,319 102,160 104,652 111,196
* Sum of rows does not add to the total due to the suppression of detailed results for Information (NAICS 51) and Management of Companies and Enterprises (NAICS 55) because 2010 survey
results were not reported due to low number of responses.
5Green Jobs Employment Projections Table 2: Green Jobs Projections by Occupation OCCUPATION GROUP SOC 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 Management Occupations 11 6,946 7,142 7,203 7,345 7,757 Business and Financial Operations Occupations 13 2,061 2,142 2,172 2,241 2,367 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 15 617 633 646 677 711 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 17 2,631 2,795 2,817 2,844 3,019 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 19 2,037 2,076 2,105 2,162 2,246 Community and Social Services Occupations 21 1,359 1,383 1,406 1,471 1,573 Legal Occupations 23 400 413 420 429 449 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 25 5,048 5,121 5,194 5,413 5,714 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 27 464 473 479 497 518 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 29 5,402 5,508 5,615 5,941 6,514 Healthcare Support Occupations 31 2,698 2,763 2,829 3,034 3,338 Protective Service Occupations 33 2,057 2,092 2,122 2,202 2,299 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 35 5,617 5,714 5,810 6,098 6,603 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 37 2,649 2,695 2,729 2,826 3,011 Personal Care and Service Occupations 39 2,009 2,059 2,107 2,233 2,397 Sales and Related Occupations 41 6,533 6,584 6,653 6,841 7,148 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 43 10,878 11,123 11,217 11,460 12,161 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 45 2,051 2,048 2,035 1,993 1,927 Construction and Extraction Occupations 47 11,659 13,025 12,879 12,320 13,497 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 49 7,263 7,734 7,778 7,875 8,400 Production Occupations 51 8,214 8,540 8,630 9,130 9,511 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 53 9,084 9,256 9,313 9,616 10,037 6
Green Jobs Employment Projections
Conclusion
Overall, green employment in Louisiana is expected to grow by 13.8 percent relative
to 8.6 percent growth for Louisiana employment as a whole. The rapid growth in green
employment is even more remarkable given that the 2010 baseline includes a significant
amount of green employment created by ARRA funding, some of which will disappear
as that spending wanes. While publicly announced economic development projects have
been incorporated into the forecast, the Louisiana Department of Economic Development’s
Blue Ocean initiative will target several areas of green economic activity. Given the track
record of success of that initiative to date, future efforts by the state to cultivate this sector
of the economy may well lead to even faster growth for green employment in Louisiana’s
economy.
71001 North 23rd Street P. O. Box 94094 Baton Rouge, LA 70804-9094 www.laworks.net
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