Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Research

Spring
2017

Great Western
Electrification:
Unlocking future growth

                          08449 02 03 04
                          gva.co.uk
Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Setting the scene
                                    235 miles of railway to be electrified
                                    Over 100 million passengers a year are               Future growth in the West of England
                                    predicted to travel on Great Western services        will also be delivered through local and
                                    by 2019, according to Network Rail, in addition      national infrastructure schemes that run
                                    to road and bus commuting in the region.             in parallel to the electrification of the GWML.
                                    Investment in road, bus and rail networks is         These include Crossrail, MetroWest, Bus Rapid
                                    essential to accommodate these growing               Transit schemes and proposed investment
                                    numbers of commuters to unlock future                in additional motorway junctions along the
                                    economic growth in key areas along the               M49 and M4.
                                    Great Western route, ensuring our Core City
                                                                                         Our report focuses on four key locations
                                    Region remains the only City outside of
                                                                                         in the West of England region: Bath, Bristol,
                                    London to positively contribute to GDP.
                                                                                         Chippenham and Swindon, all of which
                                    The electrification of the Great Western             will benefit from electrification by having
                                    Main Line (GWML) will deliver a significant          a commuting distance of under 90 minutes
                                    enhancement to the connectivity and capacity         to London and enhanced interurban services.
                                    of services in the West of England. The project      We will examine how transport connectivity,
                                    will bring new high-speed electric trains, a major   local infrastructure projects, and investment in
                                    redevelopment of Bristol Temple Meads and            station upgrades (to accommodate capacity
                                    Paddington Stations (to be known as Paddington       and commuter flow) will play a critical role
                                    Place), and modernisation of signals and             in unlocking new economic growth and
                                    stations along 235 miles of railway corridor.        development hot spots in these areas.

                                    “
                                    Electrification will deliver a significant
                                    enhancement to the connectivity

                                                                                              ”
                                    and capacity of services.

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
The journey
                                                                                                                                       Figure 1: Electrification of the Great Western Main Line route and relationship with motorway corridor

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Cirencester                                            Primary rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Secondary rail
                                                                                                                                                        Severn
Fast interurban links between English and Welsh                                                                                          Newport
                                                                                                                                                        Tunnel
                                                                                                                                                       Junction
                                                                                                                                                                    Severn
                                                                                                                                                                    Beach
                                                                                                                                                                                        Stroud
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rural rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Future rail line

capital cities                                                                                                                                                                  Bristol Wooton Kemble
                                                                                                                                                                               Parkway Bassett Jcn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        M4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        M49

The upgraded GWML will run from London to              the Severn Tunnel (for Wales). This key corridor                                Central
                                                                                                                                                      Avonmouth                                       Swindon Didcot
                                                                                                                                       Cardiff
Bristol improving line links between London and        along an east to west route provides fast                                                                                                   Chippenham Parkway                        M4
the South West and to Wales. Extending from this       interurban links between the English and Welsh
are radial routes to Oxford, the Cotswolds,            capital cities. The route diverges at Wootton                                     Portishead                                                                       Reading            Rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             London
Birmingham and the South Coast.                        Bassett Junction, to the west of Swindon,                                                                             Bristol Bath Spa                                                                              Paddington
                                                                                                                                                                             Temple
                                                       towards Chippenham and Bath, and also                                                                                 Meads
The core of the GWML is the high speed section
                                                       at Bristol Parkway towards Bristol Temple
from London Paddington through the Thames                                                                                                             Weston
                                                       Meads (see figure 1).                                                                          Super
Valley, Swindon and Bristol Parkway, and on to                                                                                                        Mare

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Network Rail

Timeline of infrastructure and connectivity

                                                                                                                                  The MetroWest Phase 1
      Restoration of the                                             Reading                                                      project to re-open the
    roof at Paddington                                               redevelopment                                                Portishead rail line to
         station begins               Network Rail begins            project completed       Chippenham Station                   passenger train services                                                           Temple Meads Station
                                      installing new signalling                              Hub redevelopment                                                                   Electrification to                  redevelopment and              Swindon Bus Rapid
                                      technology to improve                                   multi-level car park                                                               Bristol Temple Meads                capacity enhancements          Transit system
                                      stations from the Severn                                and 450 additional                                                                 underway. MetroWest                                                completed
                                      Tunnel through to Swansea                                   parking spaces                                                                 Phase 1 due to be
                                                                                                                                                                                 completed

                  2011                  2013                      2015                     2016                  2017/2018          2019                             2020                                 2021                      2022                2026

                                                                                                                                                                  M4 Junction 18A and
                                                                                                                                                                  M49 Junction construction                                                  M4 ‘smart highway’
           Work begins                                            The Highways Agency’s £700m              Arrival of Crossrail                                   to commence                              Completion of MetroWest           project to be
           to modernise                                            project to develop the M4 into                  services at                                                                             Phase 2 to increase services      completed
           Reading station          Improved Reading station           a smart motorway between           Paddington station                 Network Rail electrifies                                      to Yate and new stations at
                                    opens with new platforms         junctions 3 (Heathrow Airport)                                          South Wales railway to                                        Henbury, Ashley Down and
                                    and entrances                          and 12 (Theale) begins                                            Bristol Parkway                                               North Filton

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Delayed benefits
Government committed to modernising GWML
Following the National Audit Office’s                  When the project has been delivered in full,
November 2016 report, which was highly                 electric trains are expected to improve reliability
critical of Network Rail’s management of the           on some of the busiest routes as the trains
project, the Government announced that it              require less maintenance, reducing carbon
was postponing electrification between Didcot          emissions by 20-35% at the point of use
Parkway and Oxford; Bristol Parkway and Bristol        and improving air quality in pollution hot
Temple Meads; Bath Spa and Bristol Temple              spots such as city centres.
Meads; and the branches to Henley and
                                                       New in-cab signalling will likely improve train
Windsor. The postponed work is expected
                                                       performance by replacing traditional railway
to move into the 2019–2024 period, when
                                                       signals with a computer display inside every
Network Rail will have a new funding
                                                       train cab. Trains will also include a Railway
agreement with the Government.
                                                       Communications System (RCS) which will
The Government believes that it can bring              provide secure communication between
improvements expected by passengers –                  drivers and signallers.
newer trains with more capacity – without
                                                       The Western Route Journey Time Improvement
electrification. Nevertheless, the Government
                                                       (JTI) Programme is reviewing opportunities to
remains committed to modernising the
                                                       reduce journey times either via a change in
GWML and ensuring these improvements
                                                       calling patterns, rolling stock and/or line speed
are achieved.
                                                       improvements. Network Rail has estimated that
Key benefits from the completed electrification        the journey time between London Paddington
project will enhance reliability, performance          and Bristol Temple Meads could see a
and capacity of services. Projects completed           significant reduction of 22 minutes (from 105
successfully during 2016 include the digital           to 83 minutes), while the time between London
upgrade of large sections of signalling to             Paddington and Cardiff could be reduced by
improve reliability, the modification of over          up to 17 minutes (from 121 minutes to 104).
100 bridges and structures, flood alleviation          Increased regularity of services and station
work and improvements to the Severn Tunnel.            improvements will also improve capacity
                                                       and reliability on the network.

Figure 2: Journey times along the Great Western Mainline

  London Paddington to

                                                                                  Typical arrival time in 2016 (min)
 Bristol Temple Meads       105             83                     22’
                                                                                  Estimated arrival time in 2018 (min)
                                                                                  Journey reduction time (min)
                 Cardiff    121                  104                     17’

         Bristol Parkway    81        71                10’

               Bath Spa     87         79                     8’

                                                                               Source: Department for Transport

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Station to station
                                    Station improvements enhance connectivity
                                    and capacity
                                    The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) found that             and Wales, which will help boost the Temple
                                    the busiest station on the GWML in 2014/15 was           Quarter Enterprise Zone as a destination for
                                    Paddington with almost 36,000,000 estimated              innovation, creativity and digital excellence.
                                    entries and exits by commuters, followed by
                                                                                             The ORR data found that commuter flow in
                                    16,339,602 commuters in Reading (see figure
                                                                                             Swindon and Chippenham stations increased
                                    3). Both stations are undergoing improvements
                                                                                             by 5% and 4% respectively between 2013
                                    to enhance passenger facilities and to prepare
                                                                                             and 2014. To improve station usage, the
                                    for the electrification scheme and Crossrail.
                                             London Paddington to                            Chippenham Station Hub project has been
                                    Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads                 awarded funding via the Swindon and Wiltshire
                                    stations both recorded a 6% rise in the number           Local Enterprise Partnership to build a multi-level
                                                                                                                                               Typical arriva
                                             Bristol Temple
                                    of commuters      entering Meads       105 between
                                                                 and exiting                       83 on both the north and
                                                                                             car park                        22’south sides of
                                                                                                                                               Estimated ar
                                    2013 and 2014. Bristol Temple Meads and                  the station with a link bridge over the railway to
                                    surrounding sites fall within the Bristol Temple         allow electrification of the line. The capacity ofJourney redu
                                    Quarter Enterprise Zone,      which is121
                                                               Cardiff      planned to                  104
                                                                                             the corridor  between Swindon and Kemble  17’ has
                                    undergo comprehensive redevelopment over                 been increased by redoubling the track, which
                                    the next 25 years, including a new student               means trains can now head simultaneously
                                    population as Bristol
                                                      Bristol Parkway      81 £300
                                                              University invests             71and from Kemble10’
                                                                                             to                      in Gloucestershire into
                                    million in a new campus at the former Sorting            North Wiltshire.
                                    Office site – the gateway into the city. Temple
                                                             Bath Spa      87 preparation,   Station
                                                                                               79 usage in Bath Spa  8’ rose by 4% to
                                    Meads Station upgrades         are under
                                                                                             6,222,126 commuters between 2013 and
                                    including a plan to expand the station area and
                                                                                             2014. Bath Spa station recently underwent
                                    increase train services to cater for the growing
                                                                                             improvements to enhance station accessibility
                                    rail demand in Bristol, where passenger numbers
                                                                                             for commuters and electrification could create
                                    are expected to increase by 44% over the
                                                                                             many opportunities for Bath Quays, which sits
                                    next ten years. The GWML provides Bristol with
                                                                                             within the Bath and North East Somerset
                                    excellent connectivity to London, South West
                                                                                             Enterprise Area.

                                    Figure 3: Station Usage

                                     Station name                              Entries & Exits 2013-14    Entries & Exits 2014-15      % increase

                                     Paddington                                35,093,628                 35,724,684                       2%
                                     Reading                                   15,673,400                 16,339,602                       4%
                                     Bristol temple meads                      9,522,840                  10,099,526                       6%
                                     Bath Spa                                  5,990,274                  6,222,126                        4%
                                     Chippenham                                1,826,343                  1,895,980                        4%
                                     Swindon                                   3,350,444                  3,503,982                        5%
                                     Kemble                                    340,766                    356,078                          4%

                                                                                                                   Source: Office of Rail and Road

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Population growth and                                                                                     Figure 4: Population forecast over 10 years (000s)

commercial development                                                                                                       600

                                                                                                                             500

Enterprise zones stimulate jobs growth

                                                                                                         Population (000s)
                                                                                                                             400
Efficient transport networks can serve to           Investment in infrastructure will unlock
increase the density of a location by increasing    employment in Enterprise Zones. It is estimated
the number of people who can access an area         that for every £1 billion spent on infrastructure,                       300
quickly and easily, expanding the prospective       GDP is increased by £1.3 billion and housing
pool of talent for businesses in our sub-regional   sites, in the right locations, can facilitate
economy. Our forecasts for our four chosen          accelerated economic growth, according                                   200
locations show how much population growth           to research conducted by Core Cities.
we expect to see between 2016 and 2026.
                                                                                                                             100

                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                   City of Bristol   Swindon      Bath & North East Somerset      Chippenham

                                                                                                                                                               2016   2026

                                                                                                                                                                                    Source: Experian, Wiltshire Council

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Figure 5: Enterprise Zones/Areas

                                                                              Avonmouth Severnside Enterprise Area
                                                                              Strategic industrial area with focus on storage &
                                                                              distribution, energy & waste and general industrial.
                                                                              Potential for 6,000–12,000 new jobs by 2026.

                                                                                            Filton Enterprise Area
                                                                                            Focus on aerospace, advanced
                                                                                            engineering and manufacturing. Potential
                                                                                            for 7,000–12,000 new jobs by 2026.

                                                                                                                         Emersons Green Enterprise Area
                                                                                                                         Focus on science, innovation, composites,
                                                                                                                         technology, creative and digital media.
                                                                                                                         Potential for 4,000–7,000 new jobs by 2026.

                                                                                                                                                   Bath City Riverside Enterprise Area
                                     Bristol Temple Quarter Enterprise Zone                                                                        Focus on creative industries engineering,
                                     Focus on creative industries and                                                                              software, technology and computing.
                                     technology with the creation of                                                                               Potential for 9,000 new jobs.
                                     17,000 new jobs by 2036.

                                                                                                                                                                       Source: GVA, West of England LEP
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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Bristol
Bristol is the largest city in the South West and   The West of England LEP states that the Area
the 8th largest in England. With an estimated       has the potential to create 12,000 jobs by 2026,
population of 448,000 people, Bristol is            focused on the industries such as aerospace,
expected to reach a population of half              advanced engineering and manufacturing.
a million by 2027, according to Experian.           Once completed, frequent MetroBus services
The ONS’ Annual Population Survey revealed          from the north fringe to the city centre will
that almost 81,000 people commute into              connect more commuters to Filton in the
Bristol each day compared with 55,000 who           future and help boost job growth in the
commute out of the city, whilst over 120,000        Enterprise Area.
people live and work in the city.
                                                    The Avonmouth Severnside Enterprise Area
Bristol City Council recently approved proposals    provides a regionally important industrial and
to double the size of the Bristol Temple Quarter    employment area with significant economic
Enterprise Zone by a further 70 hectares to         potential to create a further 8,000 jobs. This

                                                                                                         BRISTOL TEMPLE
contribute to funding redevelopment of Temple       could be unlocked by a new junction on the
Meads Station. The current Enterprise Zone offers   M49. Since the Government’s announcement
development potential for more than 2.0 m sq        for the new junction in 2014, work has been
ft of new accommodation for commercial,
residential, retail and leisure uses and a target
to deliver 2,200 new homes.
                                                    underway to assess the proposed location of
                                                    the junction. An announcement is anticipated
                                                    in early 2017, with work commencing later
                                                                                                         QUARTER EZ
                                                                                                         2.6 m sq ft
                                                    in the year. Bristol Airport is also undergoing a
Key developments in the pipeline include
                                                    programme of new developments to increase
a new hotel development and conference
                                                    capacity for international visitors to the region.
centre; a 12,000 seat Arena, which benefits
                                                    The development includes expansion of the

                                                                                                         RENTABLE
from planning permission and is set to start
                                                    passenger terminal, additional car parking
construction in 2017; Bristol University’s new
                                                    and a public transport interchange to
campus; and 350,000 sq ft mixed-use
                                                    enhance connections to and from the city.
commercial development at the former

                                                                                                         SPACE
Guardian Royal Exchange site (now known
as Glassfields). The Zone also encompasses
three key business development hubs: Engine
Shed, Paintworks and Temple Studios.
Bristol City Council hopes the new ‘urban
quarter’ will create 17,000 jobs and regenerate
the area around Temple Meads Station.
In addition, a planning application has now
been submitted that could see the derelict
George and Railway site near to the station
redeveloped into a home for the expanded
Engine Shed Enterprise Hub (Engine Shed 2),
which is expected to accommodate
approximately 800 new jobs.
Filton Enterprise Area, five miles north of
Temple Meads, is one of a select group
of strategically important employment
locations across the West of England that
complements the Temple Quarter Enterprise
Zone. It is located on the north fringe of
Bristol and is in close proximity to the M4/M5
motorway. The Filton Area has 50 hectares of
greenfield employment land located within
the Cribbs/Patchway neighbourhood with
further capacity for development of around
another 50 hectares on surrounding sites.

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Bath
                                     Bath and North East Somerset has an estimated          Shed, The Guild, BathSPARK, TechSPARK,
                                     population of 184,000, which is expected to            WebStart Bristol, Bristol Games Hub and Invest
                                     rise to 193,000 by 2026, according to Experian.        Bristol & Bath, providing start-ups in the area with
                                     Commuter flow data from the ORR showed                 extensive industry specific support opportunities.
                                     that over 29,000 people travel to Bath every           Connectivity between the two cities is essential
                                     day, compared with the 55,000 that commute             to support the growing technology sector, which
                                     daily from the city. Almost 44,000 people live         will help stimulate job growth and property
                                     and work in the city. Investment in connections        investment to these locations in the future.
                                     to and from the city is therefore critical to ensure
                                                                                            Bath’s Riverside Enterprise Area has been
                                     a liveable city that can grow as a place to live
                                                                                            designated as a key zone for economic
                                     or work.
                                                                                            growth by the West of England Local Enterprise
                                     Bath & Bristol is the second largest digital           Partnership. The £1bn Enterprise Area is made
                                     technology cluster in the UK after London, with        up of nine riverside development sites and
                                     over 60,000 people employed in the industry.           aims to create 9,000 jobs, 650,000 sq ft of
                                     Firms such as Aardman, Oracle and IBM Sony             workspace and 2,500 new homes. At the
                                     have helped attract and develop talent, with           heart of the Enterprise Area are the North
                                     Tech Nation 2016 reporting that the cluster            and South Quay projects. The Quays will be
                                     recorded turnover of 53% between 2010                  home to commercial, residential and retail
                                     and 2014.                                              developments, with Bath and North East
                                                                                            Somerset Council aiming to create up to
                                     The cluster has a strong set of support networks
                                                                                            1,700 jobs by 2019.
                                     available to digital entrepreneurs including
                                     Bristol & Bath Science Park, SETsquared, Engine

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Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth Spring 2017 - Avison Young
Swindon and Chippenham
Wiltshire has a population of 680,000             Swindon and Wiltshire’s Growth Deal, which
with Swindon representing 32% of the total,       includes redevelopment of Swindon’s town
according to the 2011 census. Wiltshire           centre and rapid transit bus scheme, could
is expected to grow to 775,000 by 2026.           create up to 3,000 jobs, build 2,000 homes
Over 50% of the population is located in          and provide up to £80 million of public and
the north of the county, between Swindon          private investment.
and Corsham, which is forecast to grow
                                                  In Chippenham, our final strategic station
to 395,000 by 2026.
                                                  hub, significant redevelopment of a key
Chippenham and Corsham are expected               48-acre employment park was given the
to reach a population of 50,000 and 24,000        green light by councillors in September 2016.
respectively by 2026 – which together will        Alongside 400 residential units, 146,000 sq ft
comprise 10% of Wiltshire’s total population.     of new employment space, a new hotel and
                                                  supermarket are planned to be built at Langley
More people commute out of Swindon
                                                  Park, together with a café, public open space
each year (25,000) than into the town (9,000),
                                                  and highway improvements.
according to the ORR. Almost 68,000 people
live and work in the same local authority.        The existing units at the park, currently
                                                  occupied by tenants, including Siemens,
Comprehensive redevelopment of the
                                                  IXYS and Schneider, would be retained and
20 hectares Kimmerfields site, which is five
                                                  improved. It is estimated that the Langley Park
minutes’ walk from Swindon station is underway
                                                  development would support the creation of
after receiving outline planning permission in
                                                  470 jobs and boost Chippenham’s economy.
May 2012. This will bring forward 990,000 sq ft
of mixed use development of offices, retail       In addition, round three of the Local Growth
and leisure floorspace. Further phases of the     Deal includes an indicative award of a further
development will include the transformation       £116.3 million funding from 2017 onwards.
of the bus interchange to ensure optimum          The funding will support a package of road
connectivity to the town centre and the           and transport infrastructure schemes and a
development of a new business district within     new science park at Porton Down, creating
Swindon. This will provide further employment     up to 1,500 jobs and generating around
opportunities within easy reach of the GWML.      £70 million in public and private investment.

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Other transport projects
set for delivery
Commuter flows set to increase
Journeys made to and within the Great Western                                          Bristol’s passenger rail network by ten miles and                                            MetroBus                                            Beach and Easter Compton – crosses the
corridor have increased by 23 million – or 40%                                         connect an extra 35,000 people to the railway                                                The long-awaited Bristol MetroBus project           M49 motorway, south of the existing distribution
– in the ten years to 2007, according to Network                                       network. It will also improve services in other                                              includes three rapid transit routes (Ashton Vale    park. A final decision on the location of the
Rail. To complement the growing number of                                              areas (Severn Beach line, Yate to Weston-super-                                              to Bristol City Centre, North Fringe to Hengrove    new junction is anticipated in early 2017
commuters, there are many wider infrastructure                                         Mare and Temple Meads to Bath corridor) by                                                   Package and the South Bristol Link) forming a       with construction to start later in the year.
projects either planned or already underway to                                         increasing the regularity of services from Yate                                              network that will use high quality, hybrid drive,   This new junction will help unlock growth
plug into the GWML.                                                                    to Bristol Temple Meads and the Severn Tunnel                                                single deck vehicles with fast boarding             in the Avonmouth/Severnside Enterprise
                                                                                       Junction.                                                                                    smartcards. The three schemes in the Bristol        Area – the largest brownfield site in Western
MetroWest Phases 1 & 2                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Europe – opening it up and linking it to other
                                                                                       This will reduce dependence on cars for                                                      urban area will improve public transport access
The much anticipated ‘West of England’                                                                                                                                              on key corridors and significantly reduce traffic   key centres in the South West. Avonmouth,
                                                                                       journeys and improve access to employment
project is MetroWest Phases 1 and 2, which                                                                                                                                          delays. According to Atkins, Bristol’s MetroBus     which is 84 hectares in size, is expected to
                                                                                       growth areas. Rail infrastructure projects alone
will ultimately deliver half hourly cross-Bristol                                                                                                                                   project could unlock additional development         deliver 3.0 m sq ft of commercial floor space
                                                                                       could create up to 1,800 jobs in Bristol by 2030
rail services, including reopening the                                                                                                                                              of up to 7,000 jobs at Temple Quarter, South        within 25 years, and potential job growth
                                                                                       in the growth areas of Temple Quarter and
Portishead and Henbury rail lines.                                                                                                                                                  Bristol and Filton. The planned route also links    of 6,000 by 2026, according to the West of
                                                                                       Filton, according to consultancy firm Atkins,
                                                                                                                                                                                    into major residential development sites at         England LEP. Severnside, which is 462 hectares
Phase 1 has been delayed, however, it is set to                                        which increases demand for residential
                                                                                                                                                                                    Hengrove, Bedminster Green and Filton               in size, is expected to deliver 14 m sq ft
be completed in 2020 with the long awaited                                             growth and development also coming
                                                                                                                                                                                    Airfield, with potential to connect to any          of commercial floor space, and potential
Portishead line, which will eventually increase                                        forward in these areas.
                                                                                                                                                                                    further development at the edge of Bristol          job growth of 12,000 by 2026.
                                                                                                                                                                                    near Long Ashton.                                   Bath Transportation project
Figure 6: MetroWest route map for phases 1 & 2
                                                                                                                                                                                    M4 ‘smart motorway’                                 Bath & North East Somerset Council has
                                                                                                                                                                                    There is also proposed investment in additional     been carrying out a significant upgrade
                                                   Cardiff                                           Midlands
                                                                                                                                    MetroWest                                                                                           of the local transport network through the
                                                                                                                                    Phases 1 & 2                                    motorway Junctions. The M4 will turn into a
                 Avonmouth/Severnside                                                                                                                                               ‘smart motorway’ between Heathrow (Junction         Bath Transportation Package since 2012.
Severn
                 Enterprise Area                                                                       Yate
                                                                                                                                                                                    3) and the Thames Valley (Junction 12), using       The package, which could create up to
                                                                          Patchway                                                  Proposed Rail Network
Beach
                                        Henbury        North Filton        Bristol Parkway                                                                                          cameras, information signs and signals to           1,300 jobs includes enhancing Park & Ride
                                                                                                                       London            Exisiting rail services (local and
                                                                                                                                                                                    relieve congestion by varying speed limits,         sites and upgrading nine main bus routes into
               St Andrews                     Filton
                   Avonmouth                  Enterprise                  Filton Abbey Wood                                              inter-regional)
                                                                                                                                                                                    improve journey time reliability and road safety.   the city, which could provide commuters with
                      Portway P&R             Area                                           Emersons Green
                         Shirehampton
                                                                       Horfield
                                                                                             Enterprise Area                             Services - Phase 1
                                                                                                                                                                                    The Government is also looking at calls for         real time information and improved bus shelters.
                                  Sea Mills                            Ashley Down
                                   Clifton Down                                                                                          Portishead to Severn Beach (hourly)
                                                                                                                                                                                    a new turn-off on the M4 – Junction 18a – in        The Bath Package has increased the capacity
                                            Redland
                                                  Montpelier               Stapleton Road
                                                                                                                                         Portishead to Bristol Temple               an attempt to ease congestion and provide           of Park & Ride for travel into Bath by around
                                                       Bristol
                                                                           Lawrence Hill                                                 Meads (hourly)
                                                                                                                                                                                    significantly faster and improved access to         40%, will deliver 2,860 spaces, plus consultation
                                                       Temple
                                                                            Bristol Temple Quarter
                                                                            Enterprise Area                                              Bath to Bristol Temple Meads Shuttle
                                                                                                                                                                                    Bristol’s Emersons Green Enterprise Area. Key       on a proposed site for a new Park & Ride east
                                                       Meads                                                            London
                                                                                       Keynsham                                          (Extension to Severn Beach - hourly)
                                                                                                                                                                                    strategic development areas identified within       of the city to provide an additional 1,100–1,400
                                 Pill                                                                           Corsham
                                        Ashton Gate
                                                                   Bedminster *
                                                                                               Saltford                              *   Additional stopping services (Cardiff
                                                                                                                                                                                    the emerging West of England Joint Spatial          spaces has been undertaken with a decision
  Portishead                                                                                           Oldfield Park                     to Taunton) to call at these
                                                                 Parson Street *
                                                                                                                                                                                    Plan at Yate and Coalpit Heath would also           due imminently.
                                                         South Bristol Priority                                                          New turnback
                                                         Growth Location                             Bath Spa                                                                       benefit from motorway access to Bristol,            Swindon & Wiltshire’s Growth Deal
                                                                                                                                         Services - Phase 2
                                                                                                Bath “City of Ideas”
                                                                                                                        Freshford                                                   Bath, Chippenham and Swindon.
                                                   Nailsea and Backwell                         Enterprise Area
                                                                                                                                         Weston-super-Mare to Yate                                                                      As part of Swindon and Wiltshire’s £141m
                       Weston Milton          Yatton
                                                                                                                                         Extend Weston-super-Mare to Bristol        M49 Avonmouth Junction                              Growth Deal, a series of measures is being
 Weston-super-Mare                         Worle                                                                                         Parkway service to Yate with turnback
                                                                                                                                                                                    A new junction off the M49 at Avonmouth is part     introduced to encourage greater use of
                                        J21 Enterprise Area
                                                                                                                                         Henbury to Bristol Temple Meads (hourly)   of the series of roads improvements announced       walking, cycling and public transport across
                                                                                                                                         Possible new stations (subject             by the Government. The junction is proposed for     Swindon, including a rapid transit bus scheme.
                                                                                                                                         to business case)
                                                                                                                                                                                    the area where Farm Lane - linking Severn           This will give commuters faster access to
                                                                                                                                         Enterprise zones/areas                                                                         Swindon town centre.
               South West                                                                        Wiltshire Towns and South Coast

                                                                                                                                                              Source: Travelwest

20 | Great Western Electrification                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         gva.co.uk/research
Future direction
Figure 7: Major infrastructure projects in the West of England

      Project                Type of project       Project status      Cost        Start date End date

                       The project will re-open                                                                  New transport links to unlock future economic growth
                       the Portishead rail line
                       to passenger train                                                                        We have identified a number of potential                 commuters by providing more frequent trains to
MetroWest
                       services, and enhance         Delayed          £58.2m          2017        Mid 2020       areas that may benefit from major connectivity           Yate, which is set for strategic growth of up to 2,600
Phase 1
                       local train services on                                                                   projects that are currently underway or in               new homes through the emerging West of
                       the Severn Beach and                                                                      the pipeline.                                            England Joint Spatial Plan.
                       Bath to Bristol lines
                                                                                                                 Saltford Station                                         Royal Wootton Bassett and Corsham
                                                                                                                 As the MetroWest project gets underway, there has        New railway stations at Royal Wootton Bassett and
                       Re-open the Henbury
                                                                                                                 been a local campaign to get Saltford station,           Corsham are currently at the feasibility stage. Last
                       Line to an hourly spur
                                                                                                                 which sits between Keynsham and Oldfield Park,           year, Wiltshire Council commissioned Atkins to
                       passenger service
                                                                                                                 reinstated. Bath & North East Somerset Council is        assess the case for stations in the two towns. It had
                       and increase train
                                                                                                                 reviewing a timetable space for a half-hourly stop       “identified markets” for both rail stations particularly
MetroWest              services to Yate with
                                                     Proposed         £42.3m          2021           TBC         at Saltford as part of the new MetroWest service. If     in relation to journeys to and from Bath and Bristol.
Phase 2                a half-hourly service.
                                                                                                                 Saltford station is reopened, it will be part of phase   Forecasts indicate Royal Wootton Bassett station
                       The plans include
                                                                                                                 2 of the project, which involves an hourly service       could carry up to 330,000 passengers per year,
                       new rail stations at
                                                                                                                 on the Avonmouth freight line serving new stations       while Corsham would carry up to 400,000
                       Henbury, North Filton
                                                                                                                 at North Filton and Henbury. The council has             passengers annually. The report said that future
                       and Ashley Down
                                                                                                                 estimated that the demand for Saltford station,          development plans would be expected to further
                                                                                                                 assuming a two train per hour frequency in each          increase passenger numbers.
M49                    Construction of a new                                                                     direction, would equal 203,700 trips per annum.
                                                                                                                                                                           “An initial analysis indicated it could be viable to
Avonmouth              junction on the M49 in         Planned       £25m–50m           TBC           TBC         This represents an average of 647 trips per day.
                                                                                                                                                                          introduce a new hourly train service between Bristol
Junction               the Avonmouth region                                                                      Re-opening Saltford would help support the Bath
                                                                                                                                                                          and Swindon to serve a new Corsham station, with
                                                                                                                 Enterprise Zone and Filton Enterprise Area, and
                                                                                                                                                                          possible extensions to Oxford or Cardiff”, is stated in
                                                                                                                 enhance connectivity for local commuters. This
                                                                                                                                                                          a report, conducted by Atkins on behalf of Wiltshire
                                                                                                                 could also unlock the significant economic
                       Feasibility study to look                                                                                                                          Council. The report added that the main obstacle
                                                                                                                 development potential of the Broadmead
M4 Junction            at options for linking                                                                                                                             to a Corsham railway station is the provision of a
                                                     Proposed          £42m            TBC           TBC         Peninsula, which is being promoted by Bath and
18a                    A4174 Ring Road with                                                                                                                               suitable and viable train service. It found that a
                                                                                                                 North East Somerset Council through the Joint
                       the new M4 junction                                                                                                                                regular direct London service “is not considered to
                                                                                                                 Spatial Plan process.
                                                                                                                                                                          be feasible due to incompatibility with wider rail
                                                                                                                 Ashley Down, North Filton and Henbury                    industry goals to improve the quality of intercity
M4 Junctions           Conversion to a                                                                                                                                    services on the Great Western Main Line.”
                                                      Planned       £586m–862m       Mar-17        Mar-22        New stations at Ashley Down, North Filton and
3–12                   Smart Motorway
                                                                                                                 Henbury are also expected to open as part of             Long Ashton
                                                                                                                 MetroWest Phase 2 creating an hourly service on
                                                                                                                                                                          The University of Bristol has said it recognises
Bath Transport         Development of a                                                                          these lines, and enhance connectivity for local
Strategy Park          new Park and Ride             Proposed        £10 million       TBC           TBC

                                                                                                                 “
and Ride               east of the city

                                                                            Source: Travelwest, UK Government,
                                                                                 Network Rail, Highways Agency
                                                                                                                 Re-opening Saltford station would help
                                                                                                                 support the Bath Enterprise Zone and Filton
                                                                                                                 Enterprise Area, and enhance connectivity

                                                                                                                                                                     ”
                                                                                                                 for local commuters.

22 | Great Western Electrification                                                                                                                                                                                gva.co.uk/research
Figure 8: Future areas of growth

                                                                                                                                             Cirencester
                                                                                                                                             Could be linked to mainline rail
                                                                                                                                             services, easing pressure on Kemble
                                                                                                                                             and creating fast link to London.

                                         Ashely Down, North Filton & Henbury
                                         New stations expected as
                                         part of MetroWest Phase 2.

                 Portishead                                                               Filton
                 The rail line is due to re-open in                                       Plans to double the
                 2019 improving connectivity.                                             number of tracks                                             Royal Wootton Bassett
                                                                                          from 2 to 4.
                                                                                                                                                       New station at feasability
                                                                                                                                                       stage. Capacity for up to
                                                                                                                                                       300,000 passengers pa.

              Long Ashton
                                                                                                                Corsham
              Potential new station to
                                                                                                                New station at feasability
              improve connectivity.
                                                                                                                stage. Capacity for up to
                                                                                                                400,000 passengers pa.

                                                              Saltford Station
                                                              Campaign to re-open the station
                                                              as part of MetroWest Phase 2.

                                                                                                                                                   Wilton
                                                                                                                                                   Old station could
                                                                                                                                                   be re-opened easing
                                                                                                                                                   congestion at Salisbury.

                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: GVA
24 | Great Western Electrification                                                                                                                                                  gva.co.uk/research
Conclusion
the importance of a new station at Long Ashton.           1,200 homes since 2000. Taylor Wimpey
Plans were submitted to reopen the station as part        has submitted proposals to develop a further
of the University’s Fenswood Farm development,            70 homes alongside the 117 homes already
which is being promoted through the emerging              being built along the Harbour Edge.
West of England Joint Spatial Plan process. The
                                                          The growth of Portishead looks set to continue,
proposal could comprise some 1,000 houses,                                                                       The corridor along the Great Western Mainline       consider as locations for sustainable, long-term
                                                          thanks to MetroWest, which will reopen the rail
129,000 sq ft business floor space and a primary                                                                 (GWML) is undergoing significant change with        residential growth. Other locations that will be
                                                          line to Bristol in 2019. The journey would take
school. The new station would be located up to                                                                   growth and pressure for new housing fuelled         increasingly connected to the GWML corridor
                                                          17 minutes to get to Bristol, reducing commute
one mile west of the original location. Long Ashton                                                              by economic investment and development              through new stations or capacity improvements
                                                          journeys by over 43 minutes by car. The improved
currently benefits from public transport services                                                                at designated Enterprise Zones and Enterprise       such as Portishead, Cirencester and Long
                                                          connectivity could also be an opportunity to
including Park & Ride facilities which are                                                                       Areas around Bristol, Bath, Swindon and             Ashton would also support a mix of uses with
                                                          attract businesses in North Somerset to Portishead:
undergoing an upgrade as part of the MetroBus                                                                    Chippenham. The economic success of the             new floorspace for businesses.
                                                          major employers include Capita and Avon and
scheme, and has two existing bus service                                                                         region underpins housing growth forecasts.
                                                          Somerset Constabulary’s headquarters.                                                                      Transport and connectivity are key drivers of
connections to Bristol city centre. Great Western                                                                The West of England area alone is considering a
                                                                                                                                                                     economic growth in the West of England.

                                                          “
Railway currently operates local and inter-city                                                                  target to provide 85,000 new homes in the next
passenger services past the site, linking Cardiff and                                                                                                                Continued investment in infrastructure schemes
                                                                                                                 Local Plan period through the emerging Joint
Bristol with Weston-super-Mare and the South West.                                                                                                                   will play a significant role in unlocking further
                                                                                                                 Spatial Plan. Connectivity and accessibility are
The proposed station would positively enhance                                                                                                                        new growth in key employment sectors. We
                                                                                                                 critical to delivering housing that supports this
connectivity to Bristol’s Temple Quarter Enterprise
Zone.
                                                              Portishead, which                                  economic development in a sustainable way.
                                                                                                                                                                     expect new corridors between rural and urban
                                                                                                                                                                     stations to be achieved as a result of the

                                                              sits on the Bristol
                                                                                                                 Improvements in capacity and accessibility to       enhanced connectivity on the GWML. In
Wilton                                                                                                           new or improved stations will not only support a    addition, enhanced inter-urban connections
The station in Wilton closed more than 40                                                                        burgeoning commuter market across the route,        between the key cities in the region will provide
years ago but it could be reopened to improve
transport in the area. Many more passengers are
                                                              Channel, is one of                                 but also encourage job creation. New locations
                                                                                                                 for residential development will be needed to
                                                                                                                                                                     a wider talent pool for employers as the
                                                                                                                                                                     catchment for those commuting to work will

                                                              the fastest growing

                                                                                                  ”
using the county’s rail network, which is up by 24%                                                              support this growth in employment and it is         grow. This could lead to companies relocating
since 2004 at Salisbury and 66% at Westbury.                                                                     critical to begin planning for change now.          from London as workers are retained in places
                                                                                                                 Re-opened rural railway stations at places such     like Bristol, which is the only city outside of
Wilton Parkway station would be on the Salisbury to
Bristol line and would be part of the Trans Wilts route       towns in Britain.                                  as Saltford, Royal Wootton Bassett, Wilton and
                                                                                                                 Corsham provide important opportunities to
                                                                                                                                                                     London to contribute positively to GDP.
which will run north to south in the county. It could
improve journey times between Swindon, Westbury
and Salisbury. Plans for a proposed station could
allow commuters to use the nearby Wilton Park             Cirencester
and Ride, easing parking problems at Salisbury            In the future, Cirencester could be linked to
railway station and raise the profile of the town. The    mainline rail services. Cirencester station was
service would also help create a gateway to               closed as part of the Beeching Report in 1964,
Stonehenge, which received 1.3 million visitors in        along with thousands of smaller stations across the
2014. Trans Wilts Rail has said that Salisbury and        country deemed ‘unprofitable,’ leaving only
South East Wiltshire are set to see major economic        services from the nearby village of Kemble.
growth with up to 10,000 new jobs by 2031.
                                                          According to Cirencester Community Railway, the
Filton                                                    £13m proposals include a new station in
Railway electrification work in Bristol is supporting     Cirencester at Chesterton and a bridge being built
the Filton Bank Four Tracking Capacity scheme,            over the A429 at Kemble. The scheme could also
which will see the number of tracks between               alleviate parking issues in Kemble. A new train line
Temple Meads and Filton Abbey Wood doubled                would give commuters a fast link to London.
from two to four by 2018. This will mean greater          This infrastructure would complement plans
passenger capacity and will allow maintenance to          for 2,500 houses to be built in the south west of
be carried out without disrupting services. To            Cirencester that includes creating a community
accommodate the new trains, a fourth platform             hub at Chesterton Farm. Additionally, promoters of
will be built at Filton Abbey Wood station.               the redevelopment of Kemble Airfield,
                                                          Commercial Estates Group (CEG), have also
Portishead                                                confirmed that the site will continue to be
Portishead, which sits on the Bristol Channel, is one     promoted for development of a new village with
of the fastest growing towns in Britain. Much of that     around 2,000 new homes.
growth has been around the Marina where there
has been growing demand for waterfront living.            Kemble lies four miles from Cirencester with good
A consortium of housebuilders, including Crest            transport links, two A-roads and a station that is
Nicholson and Persimmon, have built around                currently being upgraded as a result of the
                                                          electrification of the GWML.
26 | Great Western Electrification                                                                                                                                                                      gva.co.uk/research
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