Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021-2025 - DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMENT - AWS
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T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Who is this document for? Victoria’s Climate Change Act requires the Government to ‘take strong action to build resilience to, and reduce the risks posed by, climate change and protect those most vulnerable.’ 11 Development of this community-led Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and coordination of its implementation has been funded by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP). The Strategy was written collaboratively by members of Regional Climate Adaptation Groups (RCAG) representing state government, agencies, local government, universities, farmers, business and community in close consultation with key stakeholders throughout the Grampians Region. It is intended that everyone involved can see their own climate adaptation aspirations reflected. Efforts across the Region can be better coordinated, leading to improved outcomes for communities and the environment. Community groups, local governments, agencies and organisations can use this document to: • Align their own climate adaptation planning and projects to regional goals and outcomes, providing opportunities for partnerships and collaboration to maximise collective impact. • Apply for grants funded by DELWP. • Support funding applications for other government, corporate and philanthropic grants. Activities aligned with these goals and outcomes will be able to demonstrate a high level of strategic thinking at a regional level, stakeholder engagement and community support. • Prompt conversations and planning within and between organisations to reduce the risks that will arise from climate change. Funded by: 1 Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic), preamble. Cover image: Grain harvest near Mitre Rock by Glenn Tempest Image: Pelicans by Andrew Thomas Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 2
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Contents Introduction 4 Grampians Region profile 6 Background and context 8 The adaptation challenge 10 Adaptation themes 14 Grampians Region vision 32 Goals, outcomes and indicators 34 Implementation 37 References 38 Appendices 41 Image: Murtoa Stick Shed by Mel Douglas Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 3
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Introduction While many of the likely consequences • Community cohesion and behaviour of climate change are reasons for genuine change are necessary for successful concern about the future, working together adaptation in the Region and must be to produce this document shows how factored into every goal and action. adapting to those risks can motivate hope In collectively writing this Strategy, and determination for those who commit stakeholders reflected on plausible future to it. scenarios and how these might play out We start from four key assumptions: in key themes for climate change in the Region: agriculture; biodiversity; economy; • Adapting to a changing climate requires heat; health and wellbeing; fire; storms and a strategic and coordinated approach, flooding; and water. The Grampians Region mobilising the people, organisations and Climate Adaptation Strategy is accompanied communities of the Grampians Region by an academically researched Situation around shared goals and outcomes. Analysis, which brings together current • Climate change is complex, affecting science and an overview of adaptation work the landscapes, built environments, already underway to ensure this Strategy businesses, communities and people builds upon existing knowledge and efforts. of the Region in diverse ways. • There are multiple plausible climate futures for the Region, depending in part on global factors (especially the extent of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide) and in part on local factors (especially the quality of the strategic approach to adaptation). Image: Lake Burrumbeet by Andrew Thomas Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 4
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN The closing section of this document Grampians Region synthesises those investigations into a long-term vision and seven mid-term Grampians Region adaptation goals goals for climate adaptation in the Region. adaptation vision for 2030–2035 Each goal contains a series of outcomes and indicators that will guide implementation for 2050 • Our regional responses to climate and monitoring of the Strategy. In this five-year horizon it is critical to build Grampians Region change are coordinated, resourced and evidence-based. upon the existing climate adaptation work communities, • Our Region’s biodiversity and natural already underway and focus effort on the actions that will best set the Grampians organisations and ecosystems are protected and resilient. Region up to meet the present, coming natural systems are • The Grampians economy is sustainable and cumulative challenges of climate thriving in a changing and climate-ready. change. DELWP has committed initial implementation funding for this purpose. climate because • Regional farming is well-adapted to the changing climate. we are adapting • Our built environment is more resistant well together. to weather extremes. • Individuals and communities proactively reduce their climate-related risk. • Our vulnerable people are supported to adapt to climate change. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 5
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Grampians Region profile The Grampians Region stretches from the South Australian border to Bacchus Marsh YARRIAMBIACK in the east (Figure 1). It covers 4,861,944 Hopetoun hectares, with a population of over 220,000. Ballarat is its largest centre with just over HINDMARSH 100,000 residents. Boasting a diverse Nhill Warracknabeal geography of mountains, desert, forests, Kaniva Dimboola grasslands and wetlands, the Region is Horsham St Arnaud named after the Grampians National Park WEST WIMMERA Natimuk NORTHERN GRAMPIANS – an ancient, mountainous landscape Edenhope HORSHAM Stawell Avoca attracting large numbers of tourists. HEPBURN The Region comprises the 11 local Ararat Beaufort Daylesford government areas of Ararat, Ballarat, ARARAT PYRENEES BALLARAT Ballan Lake Bolac Bacchus Marsh Golden Plains, Hepburn, Moorabool GOLDEN MOORABOOL PLAINS and Pyrenees (Central Highlands) and Rokewood Hindmarsh, Horsham, Northern Grampians, Dj Dja Wurrung Bannockburn West Wimmera and Yarriambiack Eastern Maar (Wimmera Southern Mallee). This spans Gunditj Mara traditional lands of the Dja Dja Wurrung, Wadawurrung Eastern Maar, Gunditj Mara, Wadawurrung, Wurundjeri Wurundjeri and Wotjobaluk (Jaadwa, Wotjobaluk Jadawadjali, Jupagulk, Wergaia and Wotjobaluk) peoples. Figure 1: Grampians Region map with Registered Aboriginal Parties and local government areas Image: Gulgurn Manja Shelter, Grampians National Park by cafuego via Flickr Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 6
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN The last ice age took place between 234 Overall, the Region is becoming more Jadawadjali rock art 25,000 and 12,000 years ago,5 where populated, but that picture is not consistent ‘average temperatures fell by 10ºC, rainfall across all municipalities. Ballarat is growing in the Grampians decreased, and cold, dry winds blew across its services industries, along with a National Park the land.’6 Since then global temperatures significant manufacturing base. Moorabool have increased7 to be higher than humans and Golden Plains shires are playing an (Gariwerd) is over may have ever experienced in Australia. important role in the growth of metropolitan 20,000 years old,2 The climate throughout the Region Melbourne. Some Wimmera Southern Mallee communities have been shrinking however, indicating the varies tremendously. The drier, warmer with populations generally declining and climate of the Murray Basin natural ancestors of today’s resource management (NRM) bioregion, ageing at the same time as urban centres Wotjobaluk peoples north west of the Great Dividing Range expand and diversify. Both population growth and decline present challenges lived through the (Wimmera Southern Mallee), contrasts with the cooler, wetter climate of the when adapting to climate change. last ice age. This is Southern Slopes NRM bioregion (Central Due to these and many other factors this true of other Highlands) to the south east, with many Strategy is deliberately written at a regional different landscapes visibly representing scale. It can also be used as a tool to trigger Grampians Region the Region’s natural diversity. The availability discussion and assist coordination of effort first nations people of water for human uses and for regional to mitigate the risks of climate change at ecosystems will depend on the incidence various other scales across the Grampians as well.3,4 of drought, local population sizes and the Region, from household and business to way whole catchments are managed. community and municipal. 2 Brambuk National Park and Cultural Centre, ‘Aboriginal Rock Art Sites – Northern Gariwerd’, Brambuk, accessed 25 June 2020: www.visitgrampians.com.au/see-do/culture/indigenous-culture/aboriginal-rock-art-sites. 3 M Bourke, A Atkinson & T Neale, ‘Putting Country back together: a Conversation about Collaboration and Aboriginal Fire Management,’ Postcolonial Studies, DOI: 10.1080/13688790.2020.1751909. 4 C Barras, ‘Is an Aboriginal tale of an ancient volcano the oldest story ever told?’ Science, 11 February 2020, accessed 25 June 2020: www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/aboriginal-tale-ancient-volcano-oldest-story-ever-told?fbclid=IwAR2mdmohNZy8BejqZYvPn0jTPnEmxr0qn2c6Sd_ jiGKVpMX11_PLmPoOYPs. 5 Australian Academy of Science, ‘How Has Climate Changed?’, AAS, accessed 25 June 2020: www.science.org.au/learning/general-audience/science-climate-change/2-how-has-climate-changed. 6 Bureau of Meteorology, ‘Indigenous Weather Knowledge’, BOM, accessed 25 June 2020: www.bom.gov.au/iwk/culture.shtml. 7 Barrows, Timothy & Alloway, Brent & Reeves, Jessica. (2013). The Australasian-Intimate Project. Special Volume. Quaternary Science Reviews. 74. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.021. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 7
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Background and context The Victorian Climate Change Act defines five years and will inform the state-wide, adaptation to climate change as: sector-based Adaptation Action Plans Any process of adjusting to actual or specified in the Climate Change Act: built expected climate and its effects that— environment; education and training; a) in human systems, seeks to moderate health and human services; natural or avoid harm or exploit beneficial environment; primary production; transport; opportunities; and and water. Figure 2 captures the policy b) in natural systems, may be facilitated by context dynamics governing this Strategy. human intervention; …8 Supporting our Regions to Adapt is a $9.32 million four-year Victorian Government Implementation will program, funded through the Sustainability be driven by yearly Fund. The program provides practical support for regional communities to delivery plans, which strengthen their resilience to climate change will include funding by building adaptive capacity and supporting for priority actions. the delivery of targeted adaptation action in Victoria’s regions. DELWP is supporting the development and implementation of regional adaptation Proposed actions will be assessed by strategies in each of its six regions the Regional Climate Adaptation Groups – Barwon South West, Gippsland, Grampians, that have worked together to develop Hume, Loddon Mallee and Port Phillip. this Strategy, supported by DELWP. This document, the Grampians Region An annual scorecard will be produced Climate Adaptation Strategy, will guide to monitor and evaluate how well the priority climate change adaptation action Region is adapting to climate change in the Grampians Region over the next by tracking some key metrics, listed as indicators on pages 34–36 of this document. 8 Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic), S 3. Image: Pyrenees vineyard by Gus via Flickr Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 8
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN While the focus of this Strategy is At DELWP our To succeed we must adapting to the changing climate, business is • Reduce greenhouse Climate Change reducing greenhouse gas emissions gas emissions Our outcome goal: • Increase community locally and regionally is vitally important. Zero emissions, capacity to adapt The Victorian Government has legislated climate-ready to the impacts economy of climate change net zero emissions by 20509 and has and community • Increase the Victorian economy’s ability a target of 50 per cent renewable electricity to transition to by 2030.10 The Australian Government net zero emissions Australia Supporting has ratified the Paris Agreement to will reduce our regions to ‘keep global temperature rise well below emissions to adapt 2ºC with aspirations to 1.5ºC’.11 Regionally, 26–28% the Grampians New Energy Taskforce on 2005 levels by (GNET) is leading climate change mitigation 2030 efforts via the Grampians Roadmap to Victorian Climate Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (R2Z).12 Change Act 2010 Victorian Reducing reliance on fossil fuels (coal, gas, Climate petrol and diesel) is a positive adaptation Net zero by Change Victorian 2050 Act 2017 Climate Change action that empowers households and Strategy businesses while also increasing thermal Victoria’s efficiency, reducing energy bills and COP21 renewable improving air quality. On site energy Keep global energy temperature rise targets (VRET) generation and carbon storage can provide well below 2°C 40% Community-led new sources of income for landholders. with aspirations by 2025 regional adaptation The R2Z identifies the agriculture sector as to 1.5°C strategies 50% the emissions reduction hero for Grampians by 2030 Barwon South West VRET Grampians Region. With their ability to revegetate Loddon Mallee marginal land, store carbon in soil and turn Hume Grampians Gippsland waste into bioenergy, farmers can help the Roadmap Port Phillip region to become net zero by 2044. to Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Sector based Adaptation Action Plans 9 Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic) 10 Renewable Energy (Jobs and Investment) Act 2017 (Vic). • Health and human services • Transport 11 United Nations, Paris Agreement (English language version), • Natural environment • Water • Built environment UN, New York, 2015. • Primary production • Education and training 12 Grampians New Energy Taskforce, Grampians Regional Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions, GNET, Ballarat, 2020. Figure 2: Diagram of climate change policy context Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 9
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN The adaptation challenge Humanity thrived in the relatively The economy of Wimmera Southern Mallee stable climate experienced over the past is expected to be the third most impacted 8,000 years.13 Now, the pace of climatic by heatwaves in the state16 and local change threatens natural systems, built governments have been directed to consider environments, social structures and climate change in their 2021 municipal human health and wellbeing in ways health and wellbeing plans.1718 that have not been experienced before. Horsham and Hindmarsh are forecast to be in the top ten localities of Victoria We can no longer to be most affected by climate change build, farm, plan or do by 2100, in terms of property values, due to flooding and soil subsidence during business without the drought.14 Halls Gap was rated the top future climate in mind postcode for bushfire peril in Australia in November 2019.15 Some communities and we cannot rely on in Pyrenees Shire are already dependent modelling based on upon groundwater as local reservoirs are no longer viable with diminished rainfall. historic trends.18 13 Australian Academy of Science, ‘How Has Climate Changed?’, AAS, accessed 25 June 2020: www.science.org.au/learning/general- audience/science-climate-change/2-how-has-climate-changed. 14 Climate Council, Compound Costs: How Climate Change Is Damaging Australia’s Economy. Climate Council of Australia, Canberra, accessed 25 June 2020: www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/costs-of-climate-change-report-v3.pdf. 15 A Gissing and F Langbein, ‘What areas of Australia are most at risk from natural perils?’ Risk Frontiers Newsletter, Vol 18 No 4 (October 2019), accessed 25 February 2021: riskfrontiers.com/rf2018/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/newsletter_V18_Issue4_Oct_2019.pdf. 16 Natural Capital Economics (2018). Heatwaves in Victoria: a vulnerability assessment. Report prepared for the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Victoria, accessed 25 February 2021: www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_ file/0029/399440/Heatwaves_VulnerabilityAssessment_2018.pdf. 17 Health.Vic, Victorian Public Health and Wellbeing Plan 2019-2023. Government of Victoria,Melbourne,accessed 25 February 2021: www2.health.vic.gov.au/about/publications/policiesandguidelines/victorian-public-health-wellbeing-plan-2019-2023. 18 Munich RE, Australia and Climate Change: A summary of the current situation and future prospects, Munich RE, Sydney, accessed 25 February 2021: www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/climate-change/australia-faced-with- climate-change.html. Image: Saw Bay at Lake Burrumbeet by Andrew Thomas Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 10
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN In 2019 the Victorian Government partnered with the Commonwealth Central Highlands Wimmera Southern Mallee Scientific and Industrial Research climate projections 2019 climate projections 2019 Organisation (CSIRO) to help communities prepare for climate change by developing Maximum and minimum daily Maximum and minimum daily local-scale climate projections data for temperatures will continue temperatures will continue Victoria at a five-by-five-kilometre scale. to increase over this century to increase over this century (very high confidence) (very high confidence) Projections for Central Highlands and Wimmera Southern Mallee are depicted in figures 3 and 4. They conclude the climate By the 2030s, increases in daily By the 2030s, increases in daily maximum temperature of maximum temperature of of Horsham may be more like the current 0.9 to 1.7°C 0.9 to 1.8°C climate of Deniliquin by 2050 and Ballarat’s (since the 1990s) are expected (since the 1990s) are expected climate may be more like that of Hamilton. Rainfall will continue to be very Rainfall will continue to be very variable over time, but over the variable over time, but over the long term it is expected to continue long term it is expected to continue to decline in winter and spring to decline in winter and spring (medium to high confidence) and (medium to high confidence) and autumn (low to medium confidence), autumn (low to medium confidence), but with some chance of little change but with some chance of little change Extreme rainfall events are Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense expected to become more intense on average through the century on average through the century (highconfidence) but remain very (highconfidence) but remain very variable in space and time variable in space and time By the 2050s, the climate of By the 2050s, the climate of Ballaratcould be more like the Horsham could be more like the current climate of Hamilton current climate of Deniliquin Figure 3: CSIRO climate projections Figure 4: CSIRO climate projections for Central Highlands for Wimmera Southern Mallee Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 11
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN In developing this Strategy, stakeholders explored plausible future scenarios both for the extent of climate change, based on CSIRO projections, and for the decisiveness Well of the Region’s adaptive responses adapted (see Appendix 1). Scenarios are a method for making sense of a complex, dynamic environment to improve decision making. They allow us to reconsider our current actions and identify and test new ideas to A B Global carbon Regional leaders are help shape the future, even though there is emissions are net zero collaborating and more than one possible version of the future by 2050 and regional responding effectively, leaders are working despite lack of global for which we need to plan. Figure 5 depicts together effectively to contraint on carbon the scenarios explored: manage a changing emissions and temperature landscape and society rises of more than 2.5ºC expected by 2100 Medium High emissions emissions C D The Region as a whole Continued high carbon has not invested in the emissions combined interventions needed, with a poor adaptive placing strain on response have left the ecosystems, communities, Grampians Region economies and vulnerable exposed to unbearable people, despite reaching pressure and a bleak future net zero emissions globally Not adapted Figure 5: Plausible future scenarios for the Grampians Region in 2050 Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 12
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Image: Corellas over Natimuk Creek by Glenn Tempest Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 13
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Adaptation themes This section of the Strategy highlights current climate adaptation planning and Community-led work under way, as well as opportunities and barriers for each of eight themes: agriculture; action is a powerful biodiversity; economy; fire; health and way to adapt, wellbeing; heat; storms and flooding; and water. While each is explored separately promoting social here, they are in fact interconnected. cohesion, behaviour The complexity of climate change requires systems thinking to understand how each change and theme affects the others and what this may protecting individual mean in an uncertain future.19 Appendix 2 and community addresses this complexity directly, seeking to ensure a climate response in one sector does wellbeing in the face not have unintended negative consequences of climate change.20 for another. It also makes Much of the work listed on the following pages relates to that of governments and a vital contribution agencies but it is important to recognise the to the economy.21 importance of community-led action. 2021 19 L Acaroglu, ‘Tools for Systems Thinkers: The 6 Fundamental Concepts of Systems Thinking,’ Disruptive Design (blog), accessed 25 February 2021: medium.com/disruptive-design/tools-for-systems-thinkers-the-6-fundamental-concepts-of-systems-thinking- 379cdac3dc6a. 20 S Burke, The Climate Change Empowerment Handbook: Psychological strategies to tackle climate change. Australian Psychological Society, Melbourne, 2017. 21 Victoria Department of Planning and Community Development, The Economic Value of Volunteering in Victoria, Victorian Government, Melbourne, 2012. Image: Community garden by Craig Moodie Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 14
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Unlocking this potential is key to scaling Community organisations in the Region The Australian ClimateWorks report, timely adaptation. However, traditional are working on local solutions through Decarbonisation Futures, states that a 1.5 models of dependence on volunteerism programs, pilots and educational initiatives degree limit is ‘within reach’, but only ‘if are not sustainable and the complexity that address local food production, energy governments, businesses and individuals of climate change and the cumulative security, retrofitting homes to improve go ‘all-in’ by 2035’.24 In many cases, local impact it may have on individuals and thermal efficiency, water conservation, fire groups in the Grampians Region have been groups and their ability to contribute must management techniques and provision working on climate change mitigation and be considered. of free or low-cost services for our most adaptation actions for decades. vulnerable.23 Local Country Fire Authority (CFA) One pertinent example of community-led brigades and Victoria’s State Emergency Much expertise exists within the Region action is the Hepburn shire masterplan for Service (SES) volunteers are pivotal around practices for permaculture, their Zero Net Emission Transition (Z-NET). to the Grampians Region’s local response community energy and regenerative As the location of the first community-owned to extreme climatic events. As these events farming, as well as the broader themes of wind farm and the first and still the only rise in frequency and bushfire seasons biodiversity and land conservation. zero-net energy town of Daylesford, the plan extend in length and regularity, how these is to make the entire shire zero-net energy by This grassroots expertise and associated important groups remain resilient is of 2025 and zero-net emissions by 2030. community actions frequently cross particular importance.22 multiple areas of the eight adaptation themes addressed in this Strategy and can simultaneously deliver on climate change mitigation needs. 22 A Davies, ‘As bushfire season approaches, we need to take action to recruit more volunteer firefighters,’ The Conversation, 17 September 2020, accessed 25 February 2021: theconversation.com/as-bushfire- season-approaches-we-need-to-take-action-to-recruit-more-volunteer-firefighters-146290. 23 Parliament of Victoria, Inquiry into Tackling Climate Change in Victorian Communities (Final Report), Parliament of Victoria, Melbourne, 2020, accessed 25 February 2021: www.parliament.vic.gov.au/epc-la/ inquiries/inquiry/967. 24 C Butler, A Denis-Ryan, R Kelly, I Stewart, and T Yankos, Decarbonisation Futures: Solutions, actions and benchmarks for a net zero emissions Australia, ClimateWorks Australia, Melbourne, 2020, accessed 25 February 2021: www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/decarbonisation-futures-solutions-actions-and-benchmarks-for-a-net-zero-emissions-australia/. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 15
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Agriculture The agricultural sector is already making a major contribution to the Region’s Adaptation is efforts to adapt to a changing climate. CSIRO projections show how much regional protecting agricultural agriculture has at stake in the success of land, managing risks, adaptation efforts. The Grampians New Energy Taskforce Grampians Regional profitability, resilience Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions (R2Z)25 and opportunities in a shows how agriculture will make the greatest sectoral contribution to the Region’s changing climate. emissions reduction effort. Agriculture in the Grampians is increasingly science-driven and sophisticated in its responses to changing environmental and economic circumstances. With government and community support and with clear strategic coordination, this contribution will continue to grow. For more information on this topic see Appendix 3. 25 Grampians New Energy Taskforce, Grampians Regional Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions, GNET, Ballarat, 2020. Image: Sheep at a Wimmera feed lot by Agriculture Victoria Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 16
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Optimising soil functionality by • Market disincentives to adaptation26 Assessing impacts of Monash University maintaining or increasing soil carbon extreme temperatures • Regulatory and policy frameworks that on wheat crops in north levels. discourage innovation and lack of stimulus western Victoria • Conserving soil moisture by that can be relied on for long-term change Climate signals and Grains Research maintaining ground cover in pasture and commercial investment. variety development and Development Corporation and cropping systems. • Road and rail freight distances and cost. Smart Farms Initiative Multi agency approach • Embracing new technology. • Lack of practical and proven models for • Sharing agricultural adaptation knowledge agriculture under climate change. Grains Innovation Park State government with eg. lessons from the WA wheat belt. world-class research research partners • Lack of development of a bio-economy to facility • Reversing population trends by providing provide a market for agricultural biomass. Strong, Innovative, Agriculture Victoria employment opportunities for rural youth. Sustainable agriculture • Lack of experienced consultants, strategy and Agriculture • Insurance incentives for sustainable contractors, and suppliers/installers of Energy Investment Plan agriculture. advanced systems. Biochar trials Glenelg Hopkins • Farm diversification including biochar, • Lack of financial stimulus for carbon Catchment Management Authority bio-fuels, agritourism and niche industries. sequestration. Annual trails Birchip Cropping • Intensification and water efficient food • Lack of bipartisan policy at state and Group production systems eg. horticulture. federal level. Public-private Eg. Longerenong • Opportunities for pipeline/reuse water • Water utilities have limited capacity and partnerships DATA farm eg. west Grampians pipeline. permission to invest in climate adaptation Regenerative agriculture Catchment except where externally funded. programs, regional management • Financial incentives to encourage catchment strategies authorities ‘mosaic’ and other farm practice change and NRM plans for climate change as outlined in R2Z. Soil Moisture Network Wimmera Catchment • Commodity price rises due to Management Authority climate change will help provide capital Grampians Regional Grampians New for agricultural adaptation. Roadmap to Net Zero Energy Taskforce Emissions (R2Z) 26 Farmers for Climate Action, Our Vision: Farming Forever, FCA, Melbourne, 2018 Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 17
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Biodiversity The preservation of biodiversity values and enhancement of environmental resilience Adaptation is building is of vital importance for the function of ecosystems, persistence of wildlife, public species and ecosystem health and agriculture, as well as for urban resilience and amenity and visitor attraction. Changes to temperature, rainfall, storm and fire patterns functionality to ensure are already putting species and ecosystems long-term viability. at risk27 across the Region. There are strong and viable strategies to respond, but they will require urgent, focused coordination and a greater willingness to invest than has been the case to date. 27 Impacts of Climate Change, South West Climate Change portal, viewed 30 March 2021 www.swclimatechange.com.au/cb_pages/environmental_impacts.php Image: Large old tree by Andrew Thomas Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 18
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Protecting existing natural assets • Declining wildlife and genetic diversity Biodiversity 2037 and DELWP and remnants28. due to fragmentation and maladaptation. Biodiversity Response Planning • Climate-sensitive restoration/revegetation. • Scarcity and pollution of water. Biolinks Community networks • Connected habitats and protection • Increases in fire activity mean that and alliances of refugia29. eucalypt biomes become increasingly Future Landscapes28 Deakin University prevalent, at the expense of alternate • Coordinated threat management ecosystems. Municipal biodiversity Local governments at the landscape scale (pest, plant, strategies across the Region animal, disease). • Land use change, human population Regional catchment Catchment growth and development. • Online natural resource management strategies, NRM plans for management climate change, regional authorities and (NRM) portals and public information • Lack of coherence in economic and waterway strategies and DELWP Aboriginal sources eg. south west climate change funding incentives is compounded by adaptation pathways water programs NRM portal. fragmented strategy and leadership across Revegetation and Landcare networks stakeholder groups. • Adaptation pathways approaches other projects to NRM planning for natural assets. • Biodiversity values impacted by other Victorian Land Cover DELWP and CSIRO climate adaptation responses and Time Series • Optimal environmental water flows. competing agendas eg. Bushfire Cultural flows studies DELWP, CMAs and • Incentivise land use practices that Management Overlays, land clearing for (catchment level) Traditional Owners value biodiversity. housing development, water diversions. Climate Future Plots Universities, catchment • Identify the transformational actions management authorities and local and tipping points that might be conservation groups required to improve biodiversity Wetland conservation CMAs and Nature outcomes for the Region. Glenelg Trust • Research to overcome key knowledge Threatened species Government, gaps at species, community and management non-government organisations and landscape scales. universities • Better management of plague/pest animal species. 28 Faggian et al., Central Highlands Plan, 2016. 29 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, United Nations, New York, 2019, accessed 25 February 2021: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/Edited-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 19
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Economy A changing climate drives changes to the regional economy, which can be Adaptation is forced upon unprepared businesses and used opportunistically by others. Many embracing the now see the cost-effectiveness of taking circular economy by action to mitigate and adapt to climate change, despite lack of policy certainty and redesigning processes, government incentives. How the Grampians recycling waste Region can manage these changes as it moves towards a circular economy will be a materials and water, major factor in determining the quality of the and generating local Region’s adaptive efforts overall. For more renewable energy. information on this topic see Appendix 4. Image: Sturt Street Ballarat by DELWP Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 20
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Regional processing of • Limited access to affordable Community-owned Hepburn Wind, agricultural product. energy sources and long-term energy Natimuk Community Energy price agreements. • Onsite energy generation with solar Onsite energy Gekko Systems, panels, methane recovery (eg. landfill) • Limited electricity grid generation McCain, Meredith and/or bioenergy. infrastructure capacity. eg. solar, biomass Dairy, Trigg Farm, Berrybank Farm, • Upgrades to improve thermal • The vulnerability of electricity supply Beaufort Hospital, Skipton Hospital, efficiency and reduce energy use/cost to outages and impacts on worker Frew Foods and others of buildings. productivity during heatwaves. Power purchase Mars with Kiamal • Use of recycled water. • Large distances make transporting agreements (PPAs) Solar Farm, Melbourne materials and goods costly or unviable. Renewable Energy • Power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Project with Crowlands local renewable energy developments. • Proportional regulatory requirements and Yaloak South wind farms around food safety. • Resource-efficient food Public-private Eg. Longerenong production systems. • Thermally inefficient partnerships DATA Farm, Grains commercial premises. Innovation Park • Grow artisanal food sector and community supported agriculture. • Lack of regulatory requirements Crop substitution with Wine industry more climate-tolerant to incorporate climate adaptation • Microgrids and virtual power plants. grape varieties measures in new buildings, including • Municipal Recovery Facility (MRF) to sort thermal efficiency and solar power. Cultivation of Dja Dja Wurrung with indigenous foods Dalki Garringa Nursery and process recyclable materials regionally. • The scale of economic upheaval in Guidance notes Reserve Bank • Develop markets for waste products response to external shocks and trade for governance of Australia, and recycling of climate risk Australian Securities policies may limit the capacity to invest and Investments • Spending by governments in response in further economic reform. Commission and Australian Prudential to the pandemic should consider • Partisanship and ‘culture wars’ may Regulation Authority climate implications. have reduced Australia’s ability Insurance accessibility Insurance companies • Circular economy food hub as outlined to cooperate in innovative responses and cost implications in the R2Z. to changing circumstances. for not addressing climate risk to business Grampians Regional Grampians New Energy Roadmap to Net Zero Taskforce Emissions (R2Z) Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 21
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Fire Fire activity in the Grampians Region is growing more frequent and severe. Spring Adaptation is seasons in south eastern Australia are generally growing hotter and drier, while preparing for earlier rainfalls generally are declining or arriving and longer seasons later.30 The imperative for adaptation is to support prevention and preparedness efforts of more intense and on private land and make investments in widespread fire. fire-prone communities. This will include innovations in building, land and water management approaches and increasing resilience of communities. These may draw on traditional knowledge, local practices and research. 30 Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate 2020, Australian Government, Canberra, 2020, accessed 25 February 2021: www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml. Image: Planned burn near Linton by DELWP Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 22
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Increase fire resistance of the • Dwindling populations in rural Municipal emergency Local governments built environment. and remote communities reduce management plans across the Region available personnel. • Improve the resilience of fire prone Grampians Regional Regional Emergency Emergency Management Management Planning communities so they can recover more • Earlier onset of fire seasons leading to fire Plan Committee (REMPC) quickly if impacted by fire. fighter exhaustion. State Emergency Emergency • Early detection, response and • Availability of water for fire-fighting Management Plan Management Victoria (EMV) monitoring of fires. due to sustained drought. Fire emergency response Country Fire • Embedding climate change • Public apathy on undertaking prevention Authority (CFA), researchers within disaster risk works around homes and properties. Fire Rescue Victoria management agencies.32 (FRV) and Forest Fire • Public resistance to alternate fuel Management Victoria (FFMV) • Sustaining the volunteer base of rural management options such as mechanical and remote communities is essential harvesting to reduce fuel. Victorian Traditional Victorian Traditional for social and economic recovery from Owner Cultural Fire Owner Cultural Fire • Health impacts associated with smoke Strategy31 Knowledge Holder Covid and other shocks.33 from bushfires and planned burning. Group • Sharing of cultural burning Goathand Cooperative Hepburn Shire Council knowledge and practice maintained with Federation University by Traditional Owners. Strategic Bushfire DELWP, CFA and FRV • Streamline replacement and Management Planning compensation arrangements for Community Based DELWP, CFA and FRV households that get burnt out Bushfire Management (especially where no permit to rebuild Community Fireguard CFA is likely, due to fire risk). Victorian Emergency EMV Management Reform White Paper 31 Victorian Traditional Owner Cultural Fire Knowledge Holder Group, The Victorian Traditional Owner Cultural Fire Strategy, DELWP, Melbourne, 2018. 32 M Howes, D Grant-Smith, K Reis, K Bosomworth, P Tangney, M Heazle, D McEvoy & P Burton, Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 2013. 33 R Wyatt, S Young, Y Medani & M Rielly, Volunteering, Participatory Action and Social Cohesion: Reimagining volunteering for contemporary Australia, ThinkImpact, Melbourne, 2020. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 23
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Health and wellbeing Climate change affects health in many ways: directly by the increased intensity and Adaptation is frequency of extreme weather events such as prolonged heatwaves, floods and bushfires; minimising the direct and indirectly through worsening air quality, and indirect impacts changes in the spread of infectious diseases, risks to food safety and drinking water of climate change quality, and effects on mental health. The on people’s health impacts of climate change are now being experienced by everyone, acknowledging and wellbeing. that these risks are especially pronounced among people who are vulnerable to heat and other climate related illnesses and their impacts. The Grampians Region will need to adapt its housing and infrastructure in order to protect communities and support mental health across the Region. Image: Runners at Lake Wendouree by DELWP Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 24
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Influence municipal ‘10-year • Climate change affects people before Victorian Public Department of Health community vision’ and other local action is taken and the scale and urgency Health and Wellbeing Plan34 and guidance for government plans and strategies. of adaptation needed may be easily missed. tackling climate change • Improving awareness of the stress • Climate change increases the disincentives Municipal health and Local governments caused by current and future for people to undertake outdoor activity. wellbeing plans across the Region climate impacts. • Declining and ageing populations in rural Climate action and health Primary care promotion programs partnerships • Telehealth can support conversations and remote communities pose public about climate-related health impacts health challenges and reduce volunteerism Place-based community Neighbourhood education programs houses and how to adapt. for provision of community services. Rural outreach programs Health providers • Capitalise on opportunities when • Many households remain dependent partnerships communities are together to promote on cars and roads for their main Rural People; Resilient RMIT Centre for health and wellbeing. transport needs. Futures pilot project Urban Research • Local place-based groups adapting • Limited community understanding Support programs for Federal, state and to health and wellbeing impacts of of the link between climate and health. communities impacted local governments climate change. by extreme weather • Increased instances of blue-green algae eg. flood, fire, drought • Climate adaptation education impacting water quality for recreation, Food Strategy 2019–2022 City of Ballarat and training for municipal, health agriculture and drinking. sector and community planners. • Costs associated with mental health- Community food swaps Neighbourhood houses and community gardens and community groups • Increased use of active transport options. related impacts of climate change, such as impacts due to drought. • Low cost town infrastructure and asset upgrades eg. bus stop shelters and • Old housing stock lacks thermal efficiency public drinking water fountains. resulting in high household energy costs. • Single-wire earth return (SWER) transmission lines are switched off to manage fire risk on hot days and electricity ‘brown-outs’ are also more frequent. 34 Public Health and Wellbeing Plan 2019-2023 (DHHS 2019). Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 25
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Heat Increased heat is the most direct consequence of climate change and Adaptation is preparing heatwaves are the cause of more deaths than any other natural hazard.35 The Grampians for more extreme Region will experience increasingly frequent, heat in the built lengthy and intense heatwaves. They will drive disruptions to agricultural production, environment and its supply of fresh food, industry productivity, impacts on people. outdoor work, sport/recreation, energy security in times of peak demand and transport delays across the Region, as well as to ecosystems and biodiversity. 35 Health.Vic, Extreme Heat and Heatwaves (web page), Victorian Government, accessed 25 February 2021: www2.health.vic.gov.au/public- health/environmental-health/climate-weather-and-public-health/heatwaves-and-extreme-heat/heatwave-research. Image: Lake Wartook in Grampians National Park by Janene Trickey Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 26
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Embed heatwave planning into • Many of the heat management Public Health and Department of Health municipal health and wellbeing and challenges are with existing buildings Wellbeing Plan 2019–2023 emergency management plans.36 and infrastructure, especially • Mitigation strategies to reduce heritage buildings. Municipal health and Local governments wellbeing and emergency across the Region household energy consumption • Where heat causes declines in management plans are also good adaptation strategies. productivity, it affects the Region’s Grampians Regional Regional Emergency • Using green financing options to economy, which in turn affects Emergency Management Planning Management Plan Committee (REMPC) encourage uptake of energy efficiency local capacity to invest in climate and climate adaptation measures. adaptations. State Emergency Emergency Management Plan Management Victoria • Increased urban tree canopies, river • Criteria for inclusion on the Vulnerable (EMV) green links, water sensitive urban Persons Register is restrictive. Cool It Central Victorian design and refuges from the heat and • High demand for electricity on hot Greenhouse Alliance cold weather for vulnerable people. days can impact the reliability of the Urban tree canopy Local governments • Community resilience strategies transmission network. projects across the Region that emphasise looking out for our • Tree planting programs may not Municipal renewable Local governments neighbours can increase the social energy targets and power across the Region select drought-tolerant species or allow purchase agreements capital of those communities.37 for ongoing maintenance costs. Heat Health Plan (2020), Department of Health • Working with developers to improve • Economic settings and planning heat health advice/ and local governments the quality of new housing stock above communications and rules often work against community minimum standards. local heat planning solutions, which makes heat harder • Retrofitting existing buildings for and more expensive for communities Strategic use of shade Eg. Horsham Livestock for outdoor work areas Exchange thermal efficiency. to manage. Victoria Energy Department of • Extensive roadside land can be planted out Upgrades Environment, Land, for tree canopy cover and heat reduction. Water and Planning • Research can identify affordable and accessible ways to retrofit established buildings for greater thermal performance and energy efficiency. 36 Yarriambiack Shire Council, Yarriambiack Heatwave Plan 2015-2018 (revised version), Yarriambiack Shire Council, Warracknabeal, 2016. 37 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Flooding in Australia: Enhancing disaster resilience and adaptability, NCCARF, Southport (Qld), 2013. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 27
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Storms and flooding The Grampians Region will experience increasingly frequent and severe storm Adaptation is activity over the coming decades, including increased incidence and preparing for increased severity of riverine, urban stormwater and and more intense flash flooding. This will have disruptive consequences for households, industry and storms and flooding. public infrastructure, transport and power transmission. Clever adaptation can head off the foreseeable productivity downturns and health impacts around storm and flood events. Image: Storm by DELWP Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 28
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Using sophisticated research • Much of the existing building stock is FloodZoom DELWP to inform planning and preparation vulnerable to storms and flooding. for storms and floods. Flood damage State Emergency • Mitigating flood risks requires cooperation emergency response Service (SES) • New approaches to floodplain from diverse public and private land users. Local flood guides SES, catchment management mean less severe flood Even where the legislation is in place to management events, and more productive retention accelerate action, effective adaptation authorities and local governments of water in the land between events. requires broad buy-in from stakeholders. Municipal flood SES and local • Data-driven approaches can enable • Declining and ageing populations emergency plans governments across more optimal deployment of in rural and regional communities tend the Region emergency services and better workload to diminish the resources available for Grampians Regional Regional Emergency management for their personnel. emergency preparedness and response Emergency Management Management Planning in those locations. Plan Committee (REMPC) • Building preparedness for emergencies also builds community resilience and • Recovery funding only rebuilds ‘like for State Emergency Emergency Management Plan Management Victoria social capital.39 like’, rather than more climate adapted (EMV) infrastructure. • Streamline replacement and Integrated water Water corporations compensation arrangements for flooded management forums and catchment management homes (especially where no permit to authorities rebuild is likely, due to flood risk). Municipal emergency Local governments • Switch the planning focus onto predicted management plans38 across the Region flood levels, rather than historical Floodplain management Catchment maximum levels. strategies management authorities Victorian Rural DELWP Drainage Strategy 38 Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Guidelines for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supplies, Victorian Government, Melbourne, 2016. 39 Moorabool Shire Council, Moorabool Shire Sustainable Environment Strategy 2016–26, Moorabool Shire Council, Ballan, 2016. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 29
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN Water Water use in Western Victoria already offers strong illustrations of adaptation in response Adaptation is to a changing climate. Lower than average regional rainfall since the 1990s has affected changing the way the health of aquatic systems and supplies, we think about and but strategic water infrastructure (such as pipeline projects) has enabled towns and use water to increase communities to keep their meters ticking resilience to long-term with less reliance on household-level water restrictions than previously. climate change. Mineral springs are a particularly significant water resource in the Grampians Region, since 80 per cent of Australia’s catalogued mineral springs are found in the Daylesford and Macedon Ranges area.40 Understanding that we need to maximise the value of water for the environment and communities is a core value for the Strategy. For more information on this topic see Appendix 5. 40 Hepburn Shire Council, Fertile Ground: Hepburn Shire Economic Development Strategy 2016-2021, Hepburn Shire Council, Daylesford, 2016, p. 67. Image: Glenelg River at Harrow by Chris Fithall via Flickr Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 30
T DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN ADAPTATION PLANS LEAD Leading opportunities Main barriers AND ACTIONS AGENCY ALREADY UNDERWAY • Increased use of recycled water • Less winter and spring rainfall Pipeline projects Water corporations or alternative water supplies to reduce resulting in reduced surface water and ecological pressure on waterways. groundwater. This will require the ability Integrated Water Water corporations Management forums and catchment to balance the needs of all users with • Upgrading water infrastructure management scarcer water supplies. authorities for water efficiency gains to balance future needs of all water users and • Population growth (particularly Pilot Water Sector DELWP Adaptation Action Plan the environment. in the Central Highlands) and land use change will place greater demand Victorian Rural DELWP • Protecting water quality to maintain on water resources. Drainage Strategy waterway health and water supply for communities. • Increased frequency of wildfires is likely Regional catchment and Catchment waterway strategies management to reduce catchment water yields and • Integrated water management maximises authorities supply quality, while exacerbating the biodiversity, social and cultural benefits. NRM plans for Catchment fragility of many waterways as ecosystems. climate change management • Reconnecting Traditional Owners authorities • Drought tests individual resilience, with water for cultural, economic, but it does not typically build Stormwater reuse for Local governments customary and spiritual purposes. recreational watering across the Region community resilience.42 • Manage rural drainage to increase Western Sustainable DELWP • River flows come under increasing threat agricultural production, protect Water Strategy with successive dry years. built infrastructure and minimise Cultural flows studies DELWP, CMAs and environmental impacts.41 • Blue-green algae is more prevalent (catchment level) Traditional Owners in warmer weather and can affect the natural ecosystem and potentially affect human health.43 41 Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Victorian Rural Drainage Strategy, Victorian Government, Melbourne, 2018. 42 HJ Boon, J Millar, D Lake, A Cottrell & D King, ‘Recovery from disaster: Resilience, adaptability and perceptions of climate change. Its effect on perceptions of climate change risk and on adaptive behaviours to prevent, prepare, and respond to future climate contingencies,’ National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 2012. 43 Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Blue-green Algae (webpage), Victorian Government, Melbourne, accessed 25 February 2021: www.water.vic.gov.au/waterways-and- catchments/rivers-estuaries-and-waterways/blue-green-algae. Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025 31
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