General Election Opinion Poll - May 2020 - RED C Research
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General Election Opinion Poll May 2020
Methodology and Weighting
/ RED C interviewed a random sample of 1019 RED C have the highest online research
adults aged 18+ online between Thursday 23rd quality standards in the industry
and Wednesday 29th April.
Sample is drawn by RED C’s own online panel, Pre-Screening
/ A online approach was used, among our bespoke RED C Live, that consists of over 40,000 All respondents are pre-screened and
online panel RED C Live. participants, recruited from online and offline invited to take part in the survey
means. based on the information held on
/ Interviews are conducted across the country and RED C are proud to have such a high quality
them in the panel.
Invites
the results weighted to the profile of all adults. resource in the market place Panelists are recruited for surveys a
/ Panellists were chosen at random to complete ✓ Unlike most generic panels, our panellist maximum of 3 times per month for
are given fair reward for their time ad hoc projects and once every 3
the poll, with quotas set and weights allocated months for tracker surveys.
helping to ensure the highest levels of
on age, gender, class and region to ensure a engagement and quality of response Fair Reward
nationally representative sample. across our surveys. We pay respondents €1 for every 5
minutes of survey completion, much
✓ The RED C Live panel is fully owned by
/ A further past vote weighting is included that RED C. This ensures that panel members
higher than the market rate
weights to first preference votes stated support are not over-interviewed, enabling us to Logic Traps
We have inbuilt logic questions and
for parties among panellists to the actual results provide the highest quality standards to
failures at these questions are
our clients.
of General Election 2020. rejected.
✓ RED C Live has proven to hold higher
Time Delays
/ In all respects the poll was completed to the numbers of difficult to reach sample
All surveys have in-built time delays
opinion polling guidelines set out by both profiles including those aged 65+ and 17-
from the appearance of questions to
24 year olds vs. leading panel providers.
ESOMAR and AIMRO. the presentation of response options.
2
The Move to Online Polling
RED C were delighted with the accuracy of our polling for the Business Post at the Final Online Poll Test During GE 2020
recent General Election 2020. The accuracy of our polls underlines the quality of our
offering.
During the campaign we actually conducted 4 polls in total, two that were run on our
telephone omnibus and published in the Business Post on the 26th January and the
2nd February, while we also conducted two further polls online using our RED Line
omnibus service.
The online polls were run in order to for us to test how accurately we could predict
the result of the Election using an online approach, which is very commonly used in
other countries such as the UK.
The results of these online polling tests were also highly successful, with an average
error of 0.80%, at a similar level to the exit poll which had 5000 interviews
conducted on the day.
These results back up the quality credentials both of the RED C Live online panel
generally, and also of the RED C sampling and quality control team tasked with
ensuring we reach a representative sample through that panel.
It has proved that we can, with our expert knowledge of the political landscape in
Ireland and our strict quality controls, utilise a more cost effective and flexible online
approach for polling moving forward.
Based on the success of these tests we have moved our regular tracking polls to a
more cost effective online approach each month to measure trends in voters support
for parties, with possible supplementary telephone polls where required.
3
General Election
First Preference Vote Intention – 3rd May 2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
Fine Gael
35% +1
Sinn Féin
27% -1
Fianna Fáil
14% -4
Change since
Ind. Candidates Green Labour Social Solidarity-
Democrats PBP Aontú Renua March 2020
8% +3 6% +1 3% = 3% = 2% = 1% -1 1% +1
Undecided Voters
12%
5First Preference Vote Intention – 3rd May 2020 Feb
2nd
Mar
26th
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) Jan May
26th 3rd
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
Election
2020
35%
34%
28%
27%
26%
25%
24%
24%
23%
22%
21%
21%
19%
18%
14%
14%
12%
12%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Fine Sinn Fianna Ind. Social Solidarity
Gael Féin Fáil Candidate Green Labour Democrats -PBP Aontú Renua
35% 27% 14% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1%
Undecided Voters
Other Parties
12% 0%
6Party 1st Preference Vote Intention X Demographics
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
Note: Results on sub sample of the population are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error.
The results should therefore be treated with caution
May 2020 Gender Age Social Class Region
Rest of Conn/
Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin Leinster Munster Ulster
Fine Gael 35% 33% 36% 31% 33% 40% 41% 25% 40% 33% 27% 42%
Sinn Féin 27% 26% 29% 28% 34% 20% 18% 40% 25% 31% 26% 27%
Fianna Fáil 14% 15% 14% 12% 11% 18% 13% 14% 8% 17% 19% 11%
Independents 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 5% 11% 7% 6% 11% 10%
The Green Party 6% 6% 6% 10% 5% 4% 9% 2% 9% 2% 7% 3%
Labour 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% -
Social Democrats 3% 3% 3% 6% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 5% 2% 4%
Solidarity - People Before Profit 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1%
Aontú 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Renua 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% - 2% - 1% -
7First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016 Outbreak
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
GE2020 of Covid-
19
Confidence and Leo Varadkar
supply agreement becomes leader of
35%
reached FG and Taoiseach 35%
30%
Fine Gael
27%
Fianna Fáil
25%
20%
Independent
Sinn Féin 15%
14%
Green Party 10%
8%
Labour
Social Democrats
6%
5%
Solidarity-PBP 3%
2%
Aontú
0% 1%
May '19
Nov-16
Mar '18
May '18
Mar '19
Sept '19
Mar '20
Mar-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
Nov '17
Jan '18
Nov '18
Jan '19
Jan '20
GE2020
GE 2016
Sep-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
May-16
May-17
July '17
Sep '17
Oct '17
Oct '18
Oct '19
Jan-17
Feb '18
Apr '18
Sep '18
Feb '19
Feb '20
Apr '20
Nov '19
Apr '19
8First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
40%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
35%
Fine Gael 35%
30%
27%
25%
Labour
20%
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
15%
Independent 14%
Green Party
10%
Social Democrats 8%
Solidarity-PBP 5%
6%
Aontú 3%
2%
Renua
0%
Other
Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately 9First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
45%
Fianna Fáil
40%
35%
35%
30%
Fine Gael 27%
25%
Labour
Independent
20%
Sinn Féin
Ind Alliance 15%
14%
Solidarity-PBP
Green Party 10%
8%
Social Democrats
6%
5%
Renua
3%
Aontú 2%
0%
Other
Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately 10Covid-19
Attitudes Towards Covid-19 Situations
Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have
provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?
80% 75%
The government The government I would be happy a
has done a bad has done a good I want to see further extension
27%
job handling the 19% job handling the the lockdown 22% of the lockdown to
Covid 19 crisis Covid 19 crisis lifted now be safe
The economic
impact of the 75% Health concerns Most people I 72%
lockdown is are more know have already Most people I
more important important than the started
27%easing off know are strictly
now than health 23% economic impact social distancing 24% abiding by social
concerns of the lockdown restrictions distancingAttitude towards Governments handling of Covid 19 Crisis
Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have
provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?
(Base: All adults 18+) Average
7.6
19% 22%
17%
25%
80%
The government The government
10%
has done a bad 7% 6%
has done a good
job handling the 3% 3% 3% 3% job handling the
Covid 19 crisis Covid 19 crisis
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Further 10 8.5
Extension 9 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6 8 7.7
7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5
8 6.8 7
7
6
5
4
3
Lockdown 2
Lifted 1
Total Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin R of L Muster Conn/ FG FF SF IND GRN
en Ulster
Gender Age Social Class Region Vote IntentionAttitude Towards Lockdown Restrictions being Lifted
Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have
provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?
(Base: All adults 18+) Average
7.5
35%
22% 75%
I want to see I would be happy a
13% 11%
the lockdown 8% 10% further extension
lifted now 5% 4% 6% of the lockdown to
2% 3%
be safe
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Further 10
Extension 9 7.9 8.1 7.7 8 7.8
7.5 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.3
8 7.1
7
6
5
4
3
Lockdown 2
Lifted 1
Total Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin R of L Muster Conn/ FG FF SF IND GRN
en Ulster
Gender Age Social Class Region Vote IntentionAttitude Towards Priority being Economic Impact vs. Health Concerns
Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have
provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?
(Base: All adults 18+) Average
7.6
35%
23% 75%
The economic impact Health concerns are
13% 13%
of the lockdown is 10% 9% more important than
more important now 5% 3% 3% 5% the economic impact
2%
than health concerns of the lockdown
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Further 10
Extension 9 7.6 7.9 8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.9
7.4 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3
8
7
6
5
4
3
Lockdown 2
Lifted 1
Total Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin R of L Muster Conn/ FG FF SF IND GRN
en Ulster
Gender Age Social Class Region Vote IntentionAbiding By or Flouting Restrictions at the Present Time
Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have
provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?
(Base: All adults 18+) Average
7.1
19%
17%
24% 15% 14% 72%
Most people I know 9% Most people I
6% 7%
have already started 4%
know are strictly
easing off social 3% 2% abiding by social
distancing restrictions distancing
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Strictly 10
Abiding 9 7.9 7.5
7.1 7 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7 7.1 7.1
8 6.7 6.8
7
6
5
4
3
Easing 2
Off 1
Total Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin R of L Muster Conn/ FG FF SF IND GRN
en Ulster
Gender Age Social Class Region Vote IntentionPreferred First Taoiseach in a Government Formed By FF and FG
Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have
provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?
(Base: All adults 18+)
Not sure
26% 30%
39% 18%
14%
I would prefer to I would prefer to
see Leo Varadkar 6% 7% 8% see Micheál Martin
4% 5% 4%
as Taoiseach first 3% 2% as Taoiseach first
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Leo
Varadkar
62%
39% 38% 39% 42% 36% 38% 47% 42% 39% 37% 36% 43%
31% 35% 25%
17%
14% 18% 12% 10% 12% 16% 14% 18% 12% 14% 17% 16% 8% 10% 13%
21%
Micheal 40%
Martin
Total Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin R of L Muster Conn/ FG FF SF IND GRN
en Ulster
Gender Age Social Class Region Vote IntentionYou can also read
