GBTA Canada Town Hall - We're All In This TOGETHER Wednesday, February 24 @ 3pm EST
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We’re All In This TOGETHER
GBTA Canada Town Hall
Wednesday, February 24 @ 3pm EST
© 2019 GBTA. All rights reserved.
2 © 2020 GBTA. All rights reserved. Phone: 416-840-6128 E-mail: ntudorache@gbta.org
3 © 2020 GBTA. All rights reserved.
4 © 2020 GBTA. All rights reserved.
5 © 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
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Town Hall Agenda
• GBTA Updates: And there are SOOO MANY
• GBTA BTI™ Outlook - Canadian Impact 2020 and Forecast for 2021 and Beyond
made possible by Enterprise Holdings
• Jon Gray, Economist, Rockport Analytics
• Canadian Aviation Sector Update
• Mike McNaney, President & CEO, National Airline Council of Canada
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GBTA Canada Town Halls are Recorded
and available on our website gbta.org/canada
Do you have a Question?
Please submit questions to the dedicated Q&A box on Zoom.
Questions will be answered only if time permitting.
For Assistance during the town hall e-mail:
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
info@gbta.org
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Dave Hilfman
Interim Executive Director
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
GBTA
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Suzanne Neufang
Executive Director
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GBTA11
GBTA Canada
Grows Volunteer Network in 2021
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.12 NEW to the GBTA Canada Advisory Board
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NEW GBTA Canada Committees
Accommodations Committee: Chair, Stephanie Snowball, IHG
Vice-Chair, Jodi Francks, Fairmont Hotels
Risk Committee: Chair, Kate King, ISOS
Vice-Chair, Suzanne Sangiovese, Riskline
Technology Committee: Chair, Greg Allworth, Chrome River
Vice-Chair, Kristen Hrycoy, SAP Concur
Transportation Committee: Chair, Monica McKill, Cenovus
Vice-Chair, Marayka Wilson, United
Meetings & Events Committee: Chair, Joe Nishi, Meeting Encore
Vice-Chair, Loren Christie, LC Solutions14 © 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
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Introducing
GBTA
Canada
2021GBTA Conference 2021 – Toronto September 20 & 21, 2021
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Scott Turyk
Director, Sales & Marketing Insert Speaker Photo Here
Sheraton Centre Toronto
Scott.Turyk@Sheraton.com
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.18 We’re Creating a New Place to Gather © 2020 GBTA. All rights reserved.
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GBTA Canada 2021
gbta.org/canadaBecome a Ready. Safe. Travel. Specialist with this 4-Week Training Program gbta.org
Ready. Safe. Travel. Specialist
Participate in a 4-week virtual training program that will take place once-weekly for 3
hours per week during May 2021
May 5, 12, 19 & 26
Early Bird registration rate from $75 USD
Register with a Special Canadian Offer:
$25 OFF valid until Friday, March 12
Promo Code: CARST2021 Visit: gbta.org or CLICK HERE22 © 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
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GBTA BTI™ Outlook - Canadian Impact 2020 and
Forecast for 2021 and Beyond
Ian Dale
Assistant Vice President,
Business Development, Canadian Operations
Enterprise Holdings
Ian.Dale@ehi.com
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.24
GBTA BTI™ Outlook - Canadian Impact 2020 and
Forecast for 2021 and Beyond
Jon Gray
Principal
Rockport Analytics
Jon.gray@rockportanalytics.com
© 2020 GBTA. All rights reserved.25
What is the Global BTI™?
▪ The 2020 study was our 12th consecutive annual GBTA Global BTI™ study
▪ Demand-side measurements of business travel -all types of business trips and all spending while
on a trip
▪ Input/output approach puts T&E on par with labor, material, and other business inputs
▪ Travel spend is a function of industry sales & sector travel intensity
▪ Projections driven by global economy, travel productivity, travel supply capacity, travel pricing,
and relevant policy issues
▪ 73 countries by 44 industries historic trends and projections –the GBTA BTI™ Global “Datacube”
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.2020 Global BTI™ Outlook: Global Overview Global Macroeconomic Overview & Business Travel Prospects © 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
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Business Travel Activity Amassed $1.43 Trillion in
Global Spending in 2019
Europe: $392
billion USD
North America: (27%)
$347 billion USD
(24%)
Asia-Pacific: $616
billion USD
(43%)
MEA: $27 billion
Latin America: $50 USD
billion USD (2%)
(3%)
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.28
The Global Economy Contracts an Estimated 4.4% in
2020, Largest Contraction Since 1946, Post WWII
Global GDP Growth
Average Since 1980 @ 3.5%
% Change @ Constant 2015 Prices
5.4 5.3 5.0
5.0
4.0 3.8
2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.6 2.8 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.0
3.0
1.0
(1.0) -0.5
(3.0)
(5.0) -4.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: IMF, Wells Fargo Securities, OECD, Rockport Analytics
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.29
Global GBTA BTI™ and Global Sales (Indexed)
52%
GBTA Global BTI™ Global Sales Index 2020 Decline
=$737 billion in • The Global BTI™ indexes
global business
travel spend global business travel
199 202 198
spending over time (base
189
182
year = 2005)
Index Value (2005 = 100)
178
166
172
164 • Business travel has become
156
145
150 more productive over time,
127
133 133 i.e., over time it takes a
123
110
119 relatively smaller business
92
100 98 travel investment to generate
90
80 81 82 each dollar in sales
• Business travel is a key input
to revenue generation with
the two measures moving in
tandem (until 2020)
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.30 2020 BTI™ Outlook: A View From Canada Canadian Macroeconomic Overview & Business Travel Prospects © 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
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Canadian GDP is Set to Rebound in 2021 But
Tail Off Through the Forecast Horizon
2025 EM @ +4.7%
2025 Canada @ +1.7% 2025 Advanced @ +1.7%
2020 EM @ -3.3%
2020 Advanced @ -5.8%
2020 Canada @ -7.1%
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.32
Containment Indices Measure COVID-19
Lockdowns Across Countries
Source: IHS Markit
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.BCI LONG TERM AVERAGE = 100
100
104
102
90
92
94
96
98
2014-01
2014-04
2014-07
2014-10
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.
2015-01
2015-04
2015-07
2015-10
2016-01
2016-04
2016-07
2016-10
All OECD
2017-01
2017-04
2017-07
2017-10
Travel Activity
2018-01
Canada
2018-04
2018-07
2018-10
2019-01
2019-04
2019-07
2019-10
Canadian Business Confidence Slow to Recover
2020-01
2020-04
2020-07
2020-10
All OECD @ 99.5
Canada @ 96.6
Business Confidence: A Key Driver of Business
3334
Canadian Corporate, Household and Government
Debt All Rise Sharply in 2020
Not including the financial sector,
Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio increased
by nearly 80% through 2020
• Debt levels and low interest rates will
help to support the economic recovery
in the near-term, however…
• This will act as a headwind for more
sustainable economic growth in the
long-run and will challenge business
travel’s return to pre-pandemic levels
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.35
Canadian Business Travel Spending Outlook
Business Travel Spend
• Business travel activity in the Canada totaled $25.7B Chart Title
($ Billion US)
annually in 2019.
• Business travel spending plummeted an estimated - CAGR -1.7%
51% to $12.5B in 2020. $25,719
$23,572
$22,196
• We expect a bounce back in but recovery will be $20,415
slow. Headwinds include: slow start to national
vaccination effort, extremely restrictive national $15,071
$12,523
travel policy, lagging business confidence and
unprecedented debt levels, which will be a headwind
to economic growth.
YoY% -51.3% 20.3% 35.5% 8.7% 6.2%
• We expect business travel expenditures in Canada
to total $23.6B by 2024 – 92% of annual, pre-
2019 2020 (est) 2021 (f) 2022 (f) 2023 (f) 2024 (f)
pandemic totals.
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.36
Canadian Business Travel By Sector
Canada Post-Pandemic Change in 5 Year Business Travel Growth Forecast By
-3.0%
Industry
Change in Forecasted 5-Year Compound Annual
Information and 2019-2020 Growth
Communication
-4.0% Professional,
Agriculture, Scientific and Real Estate Activities ■ -44% to -48%
Technical Activities
Arts, Entertainment and
Forestry and… Utilities
■ -49% to -54%
Growth (2019-2020)
-5.0%
Recreation
■ -55% to -77%
Manufacturing
Financial and Insurance ~ $300 Million
Activities
Public Admin and Defense, Other Services
Construction
-6.0% Retail Trade
Human Health
and Social Work Wholesale Trade
Administrative and Activities
Support Service Education
-7.0% Activities
Mining and Quarrying
Transportation &
Warehousing
-8.0%
Accommodation and
Food Service Activities Sector
(Arranged Alphabetically)
-9.0%
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.37
2019 2024 (f) Rank 2019 2024 (f) Rank
Country Country
Change Change
Rank $bil Rank $bil Rank $bil Rank $bil
China 1 $382 1 $521 -- Italy 9 $36 10 $27 -1
U.S. 2 $313 2 $227 -- Brazil 10 $30 9 $27 +1
Germany 3 $78 4 $55 -1 Canada 11 $26 11 $24 --
Japan 4 $65 3 $60 +1 Spain 12 $24 16 $20 -4
U.K. 5 $53 6 $40 -1 Australia 13 $24 12 $21 +1
France 6 $43 7 $36 -1 Netherlands 14 $22 15 $20 -1
India 7 $41 5 $44 +2 Russia 15 $20 17 $14 -2
South Korea 8 $38 8 $32 -- Indonesia 16 $19 13 $21 +3
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.38
Questions?
Jon Gray
Principal, Rockport Analytics
Jon.gray@rockportanalytics.com
© 2021 GBTA. All rights reserved.39
Canadian Aviation Sector
Mike McNaney
President & CEO
National Airlines Council of Canada
© 2020 GBTA. All rights reserved.40
Coming Up With GBTA:
For details visit gbta.orgWe’re All In This TOGETHER Thank you for Joining Our Next Town Hall Wednesday, April 7 @ 2pm EST
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GBTA Honorary Membership
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Additional GBTA Resources
The following slides are resources with links to videos and web content to assist our
business travel industry professionals in accessing GBTA information.
Visit us at:
gbta,org
Membership assistance at:
membercare@gbta.org
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