FX Insights - United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB)
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Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 US stocks whipsawed before ending lower. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed lower by 0.56%, 0.72% and 0.28% respectively. US yields rose overnight while a three-year Treasury auction saw tepid demand, as a fresh surge in commodity prices underscores the inflation challenge for the Fed officials ahead of next week’s meeting. Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Oil closed in New York at the highest levels since 2008, with Brent crude at about USD129/bbl, after Peter Chia US President Biden announced a ban on Russian oil imports. The LME suspended trading in nickel, Peter.ChiaCS@uobgroup.com used to make stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries, after prices spiked as much as 250% in two sessions. Broad dollar index took a breather overnight with the DXY index fell by 0.2% to 99.06 with the GBP is back in the green after rallying from the 1.31 figure and now on the march towards 1.3130. A phase of risk-on has happened in recent trade following remarks from Ukraine's president, Zelensky, that Ukraine was not about to join NATO, reminding the world that Ukraine was not regarded as being ready to join NATO. Among the G10 currencies, NOK led the gain overnight 0.7% higher against the dollar, followed by SEK, DKK, and EUR. This morning saw the antipodeans opened higher against the greenback. EUR was last seen at 1.0891 while JPY traded slightly lower against the dollar at 115.72. The Asian currency space continued to weakened against the greenback, which included KRW (- 0.85%), THB (-0.59%), TWD (-0.4%), SGD (-0.29%) and PHP (-0.26%), although the INR (+0.07%), IDR (+0.07%), CNY (+0.03%) and HKD (+0.01%) rose albeit marginally. Accounting for the movements, the Asian Dollar Index declined 0.04%. Recent publications: 08 Mar 2022: Indonesia: Foreign Reserves Increased In February 08 Mar 2022: Malaysia: Foreign Portfolio Inflows Hit Six-Month High In Feb 07 Mar 2022: China: Jan-Feb Exports Held Up But Moderating Trend Will Continue 07 Mar 2022: US NFP Report: Feb Surprised Positively With 678k Jobs But Not Wages 07 Mar 2022: China: NPC Sets 2022 GDP Growth Target At "Around 5.5%" FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 1|P a g e
USD/SGD: 1.3655 24-HOUR VIEW USD could edge higher but is unlikely to break the major resistance at 1.3685 for now. We expected USD to “trade between 1.3600 and 1.3650” yesterday. However, it popped to a high of 1.3668 during NY session. While upward momentum has not improved by much, USD could edge higher from here. However, any advance is unlikely to break the major resistance at 1.3685 for now (there is another resistance at 1.3670). On the downside, a breach of 1.3620 (minor support is at 1.3640) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW 1.3685 may come into the picture sooner than expected; the next resistance above this level is at 1.3710. We have expected USD to strengthen for more than a week now (see annotations in the chart below). In our latest narrative from yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 1.3625), we highlighted USD is likely to strengthen further to 1.3685 but “overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to 1 to 2 days of consolidation first”. However, USD popped to a high of 1.3668 during NY session and 1.3685 may come into the picture sooner than expected. Looking ahead, the next resistance above 1.3685 is at 1.3710. Overall, only a breach of the ‘strong support’ at 1.3580 (level was at 1.3565 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW USD/SGD is approaching the top of a 'falling wedge' formation. A break of the top of the wedge at 1.3540 could potentially lead to a rapid rise to 1.3581 followed by 1.3600. (dated 24 Feb 2021,1.3520) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.3620 R1: 1.3670 1.3625 1.3668 1.3613 1.3654 +0.21% +0.57% +1.54% +1.32% S2: 1.3580 R2: 1.3685 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 2|P a g e
EUR/USD: 1.0900 24-HOUR VIEW EUR is likely to trade within a range of 1.0860/1.0965 for today. Yesterday, we highlighted that “deeply oversold conditions suggest EUR is unlikely to weaken further” and we expected EUR to consolidate between 1.0805 and 1.0925”. EUR subsequently traded sideways but it popped to a high of 1.0958 during NY session before dropping back down quickly. We continue to view the current price actions as part of a consolidation and expect EUR to trade within a range of 1.0860/1.0965 for today. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is still clearly weak; next level to focus on is a long-term support at 1.0805. Our latest narrative was from two days ago (07 Mar, spot at 1.0875) where EUR is still weak and the next level to focus on is at the long- term support at 1.0805. EUR subsequently dropped to 1.0804 before rebounding. While we still see risk of a break of 1.0805, EUR could not afford to dither as a consolidation at these oversold levels would diminish the odds for a break of 1.0805. All in, only a breach of 1.1000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the EUR weakness that started more than 2 weeks ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW A break of the long-term rising trend-line at 1.0805 would not be surprising. A break of the trend-line would expose the 2020 low of 1.0635. (dated 07 Mar 2022, 1.0865) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.0660 R1: 1.0965 1.0847 1.0958 1.0844 1.0899 +0.43% -2.04% -4.51% -4.13% S2: 1.0805 R2: 1.1000 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 3|P a g e
GBP/USD: 1.3105 24-HOUR VIEW Bias is still on the downside but any GBP weakness is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.3050. We highlighted yesterday that GBP “could breach 1.3100 but may not be able to maintain a foothold below this major support”. Our view was not wrong as GBP subsequently dropped to 1.3083 during early London hours before rebounding to trade mostly sideways for the rest of the sessions. While the bias still appears to be on the downside, any decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.3050. Resistance is at 1.3150 followed by 1.3180. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Downside risk is intact; oversold conditions suggest a slower pace of decline. Supports are at 1.3050 and 1.3000. Yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 1.3110), we highlighted that downward momentum remains strong and a breach of 1.3100 would shift the focus to 1.3050 followed by 1.3000. GBP subsequently dropped to 1.3083 before closing little changed at 1.3102 (-0.03%). There is no change in our view for now even though oversold shorter-term conditions suggest a slower pace of decline. Overall, the downside risk is intact as long as GBP does not move above 1.3250 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.3280 yesterday). A break of the ‘strong resistance’ would indicate that the GBP weakness that started more than a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW GBP/USD has to close below 1.3130 before further weakness can be expected. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 1.3325) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.3050 R1: 1.3180 1.3105 1.3145 1.3083 1.3102 -0.03% -1.70% -3.29% -3.12% S2: 1.3000 R2: 1.3250 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 4|P a g e
AUD/USD: 0.7275 24-HOUR VIEW Scope for further AUD weakness but a sustained decline below 0.7230 appears unlikely. The sharp drop in AUD to 0.7245 yesterday came as a surprise (we were expecting AUD to consolidate). While the rapid decline appears to be overdone, there is scope for further AUD weakness. That said, a sustained decline below 0.7230 appears unlikely (next support is at 0.7170). Resistance is at 0.7300 but only a breach 0.7320 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD has moved into a consolidation phase; likely to trade within a range of 0.7170/0.7370. Yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 0.7330), we highlighted that “a breach of the ‘strong support’ at 0.7300 would suggest that 0.7440 could be a temporary top”. AUD subsequently dropped to 0.7245 and while we do not rule out a deeper pullback, at this stage, we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect AUD to trade sideways for now, expected to be within a range of 0.7170/0.7370. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW No clear direction in AUD/USD at this stage but the risk within these couple of months is on the downside. (dated 15 Feb 2022, 0.7120) Read More LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 0.7230 R1: 0.7320 0.7326 0.7347 0.7245 0.7273 -0.57% +0.28% +1.78% +0.06% S2: 0.7170 R2: 0.7370 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 5|P a g e
NZD/USD: 0.6815 24-HOUR VIEW NZD is likely to trade sideways within a range of 0.6790/0.6845. We highlighted yesterday that NZD “is unlikely to weaken much further” and we expected it to “trade sideways between 0.6800 and 0.6880”. NZD subsequently traded between 0.6799 and 0.6850. Further sideway-trading would not be surprising, likely within a range of 0.6790/0.6845. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW NZD strength has come to an end; likely to consolidate and trade between 0.6740 and 0.6900 for now. We have expected a stronger NZD since early last week. After NZD rose to 0.6926 and pulled back sharply, we highlighted yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 0.6840) that “the sharp pullback has diminished the odds for further strength”. NZD subsequently dipped slightly below our ‘strong support’ level at 0.6800 (low of 0.6799). While the ‘strong support’ was not clearly breached, upward pressure has more or less dissipated. In other words, the recent NZD strength has ended and NZD is likely to consolidate and trade between 0.6750 and 0.6990 for now. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW NZD/USD is likely to weaken during 1Q22; support level of note is at 0.6510. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 0.6780) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 0.6790 R1: 0.6845 0.6826 0.6850 0.6799 0.6807 -0.23% +0.65% +2.39% -0.55% S2: 0.6740 R2: 0.6900 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 6|P a g e
USD/JPY: 115.80 24-HOUR VIEW USD could advance further but is unlikely to challenge the major resistance at 116.30. Yesterday, we held the view that “there is room for USD to extend but a clear break of 115.90 appears unlikely”. Our view was not wrong as USD rose to 115.78 before closing at 115.66 (+0.67%). USD traded on firm note during early Asian hours and upward momentum is beginning to build. USD could advance further but based on the current momentum, is unlikely to challenge the major resistance at 116.30 (there is another resistance at 116.10). Support is at 115.60 followed by 115.40. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Outlook is mixed; USD could trade in a choppy manner and within a relatively broad range of 114.40/116.30. We highlighted yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 115.45) that the outlook is mixed and we expect USD to trade within a relatively broad range of 114.40/116.30. While shorter-term upward momentum has improved somewhat, there is no change in our view for now. Looking ahead, USD has to break the major resistance at 116.30 before a sustained advance is likely. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW USD/JPY is likely to consolidate and trade between 111.30 and the Nov 2021 high of 115.51. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 113.70) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 115.40 R1: 116.10 115.30 115.78 115.23 115.66 +0.32% +0.67% +0.10% +0.50% S2: 114.40 R2: 116.30 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 7|P a g e
USD/CNH: 6.3220 24-HOUR VIEW USD is likely to trade sideways within a range of 6.3100/6.3300. We expected USD to trade sideways between 6.3150 and 6.3350 yesterday. USD subsequently traded between 6.3126 and 6.3297 before closing largely unchanged at 6.3263 (+0.02%). The price actions offer no fresh clues and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways, albeit within a lower range of 6.3100/6.3300. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Outlook is mixed; USD could trade between 6.3050 and 6.3450 for now. There is not much to add to our update from Tuesday (07 Mar, spot at 6.3240). As highlighted, the outlook is mixed and USD could trade between 6.3050 and 6.3450 for now. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Risk for USD/CNH is on the downside but major support at 6.2740 is likely out of reach within 1Q22. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 6.3740) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 6.3100 R1: 6.3300 6.3250 6.3297 6.3126 6.3263 +0.02% +0.09% -0.62% -0.62% S2: 6.3050 R2: 6.3450 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 8|P a g e
EUR/SGD: 1.4890 24-HOUR VIEW EUR is likely to trade between 1.4850 and 1.4950. Our expectations for EUR to “trade sideways between 1.4755 and 1.4865” yesterday were incorrect as it popped to a high of 1.4933. The sharp bounce appears to be overdone and EUR is unlikely to strengthen much further. For today, EUR is more likely to trade between 1.4850 and 1.4950. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Downward momentum is beginning to wane; a breach of 1.4950 would indicate that week-long weakness in EUR has ended. In our latest narrative from two days ago (07 Mar, spot at 1.4785), we highlighted that downside risks remain intact and EUR could weaken further to 1.4700. We added “only a breach of 1.4950 would indicate that the downside risk has dissipated”. Yesterday (08 Mar), EUR popped to a high of 1.4933. Downward momentum is beginning to wane and a break of 1.4950 would indicate that the weakness that started about a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Conditions are deeply oversold but there is scope for weakness in EUR/SGD to dip below 1.5260 first before stabilization can be expected. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 1.5450) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.4850 R1: 1.4950 1.4774 1.4933 1.4771 1.4871 +0.62% -1.52% -3.13% -3.03% S2: 1.4740 R2: 1.5000 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 9|P a g e
GBP/SGD: 1.7885 24-HOUR VIEW GBP is likely to trade sideways between 1.7840 and 1.7960. We highlighted yesterday that “while deeply oversold, there is room for the weakness in GBP to test 1.7800 first stabilization is likely”. Our expectations did not materialize as GBP traded between 1.7836 and 1.7927. The recent weakness appears to have stabilized and GBP is likely to trade sideways for today, expected to be between 1.7840 and 1.7960. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Further GBP weakness is not ruled out but oversold conditions suggest 1.7700 may or may not come into the picture. There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 1.7875). As highlighted, further GBP weakness is not ruled out but oversold conditions suggest the pace of any further decline is likely to be slower and the next support at 1.7700 may or may not come into the picture. Overall, only a breach of 1.8050 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness in GBP that started about 2 weeks ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Bias for GBP/SGD is on the downside, major support at 1.7552 is unlikely to come into the picture. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 1.8180) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.7840 R1: 1.7960 1.7848 1.7927 1.7836 1.7876 +0.18% -1.16% -1.84% -2.05% S2: 1.7700 R2: 1.8050 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 10 | P a g e
AUD/SGD: 0.9930 24-HOUR VIEW AUD could dip to 0.9985; major support at 0.9840 is unlikely to come into the picture. We did not anticipate the sharp drop in AUD to 0.9892 yesterday (we were expecting AUD to consolidate). Despite the decline, downward momentum has not improved by much. However, AUD could dip to 0.9885 first. The next support at 0.9830 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 0.9960 followed by 0.9995. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is likely to trade sideways within a range of 0.9830/1.0030. Yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 0.9990), we highlighted that the recent AUD strength has run its course and we expected AUD to trade sideways between 0.9900 and 1.0120. While AUD subsequently dropped below the bottom of our expected range at 0.9900 (low of 0.9892), it appears premature to expect a deep pullback. Overall, we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways, albeit within a lower range of 0.9830/1.0030. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Upward momentum is improving rapidly, a break of 1.0035 could potentially lead to a rapid rise to 1.0159. (dated 04 Mar 2022, 0.9975) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 0.9885 R1: 0.9995 0.9977 1.0007 0.9892 0.9925 -0.39% +0.86% +3.29% +1.34% S2: 0.9830 R2: 1.0030 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 11 | P a g e
JPY/SGD: 1.1775 24-HOUR VIEW JPY could edge lower but a sustained decline below 1.1740 is unlikely. We highlighted yesterday that “the rapid decline in JPY has room to extend to 1.1770”. We added “the next support at 1.1740 is not expected to come into the picture”. Our view was not wrong as JPY dropped to 1.1769. The underlying tone has softened and JPY could edge lower but a sustained decline below 1.1740 is unlikely (next support at 1.1700 is not expected to come under threat). Resistance is at 1.1800 followed by 1.1825. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Outlook is mixed; JPY could trade between 1.1700 and 1.1870 for now. Our update from yesterday (08 Mar, spot at 1.1800) still stands. As highlighted, the outlook for JPY is mixed and it could trade in a “directionless” manner between 1.1700 and 1.1870 for now. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW JPY/SGD is likely to trade between Oct’s 2020 low of 1.1719 and major resistance of 1.2270. (dated 17 Dec 2021, 1.2000) Read more LEVELS Ranges 08 Mar 22 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.1740 R1: 1.1825 1.1812 1.1826 1.1769 1.1798 -0.08% -0.12% +1.37% +0.67% S2: 1.1700 R2: 1.1870 FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 12 | P a g e
UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook FX Outlook 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 Rates Outlook 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 EUR/USD 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.08 EU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% GBP/USD 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.40 UK 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% AUD/USD 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 AU 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% NZD/USD 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.63 NZ 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% USD/JPY 116 117 118 119 JP -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% USD/SGD 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 SG (3M SOR) 0.75% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% USD/MYR 4.22 426 4.29 4.31 MY 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.25% USD/THB 33.30 33.60 33.80 34.00 TH 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% USD/CNY 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 CN 3.60% 3.55% 3.55% 3.55% USD/IDR 14,500 14,700 14,800 14,900 ID 3.50% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% USD/PHP 50.80 51.20 51.60 52.00 PH 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% USD/INR 76.50 77.00 77.50 78.00 IN 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% USD/TWD 28.00 28.20 28.40 28.60 TW 1.25% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% USD/HKD 7.81 7.82 7.83 7.84 HK 1.00% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% USD/KRW 1,220 1,240 1,250 1,250 KR 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% 1.75% US 0.75% 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% Last updated on 28 Feb 22: Ukraine Crisis Fuels Fear of Further Inflation Spike Central Bank Meetings 2022 Central Bank Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Federal Reserve (FOMC) 26 - 16* - 04 15* 27 - 21* - 02 14 European Central Bank (ECB) - 03 10 14 - 10 21 - 08 27 - 15 Bank of England (BOE) - 03# 17 - 05# 16 - 04# 15 - 03# 15 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - 01 01 05 03 07 06 02 06 04 01 06 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) - 23 - - 25 - - 17 - - 23 - Bank of Japan (BOJ) 18** - 18 28** - 17 21** - 22 28** - 20** Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) 25 - - tba - - - - - tba - - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) 20 - 03 - 11 - 06 - 09 - 03 - Bank of Thailand (BOT) - 09 30 - 18 29 - 17 28 - 16 28 Bank Indonesia (BI) 20 10 17 19 24 23 21 23 22 20 17 22 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) - 17 24 - 19 23 - 18 22 - 17 15 Bank of Korea (BOK) 14 24 - 14 26 - 14 25 - 14 24 - Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) - - 17 - - 16 - - 22 - - 15 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - 10 - tba - tba - tba - tba - tba *Meetings associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. # Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Report. **Meetings associated with release of Outlook Report. FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 13 | P a g e
Disclaimer This publication is strictly for informational purposes only and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose, and is also not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to its laws or regulations. This publication is not an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment product/securities/instruments. Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. The information contained in this publication is based on certain assumptions and analysis of publicly available information and reflects prevailing conditions as of the date of the publication. Any opinions, projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or performance of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The views expressed within this publication are solely those of the author’s and are independent of the actual trading positions of United Overseas Bank Limited, its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers and employees (“UOB Group”). Views expressed reflect the author’s judgment as at the date of this publication and are subject to change. UOB Group may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in the securities/instruments mentioned in the publication. UOB Group may have also issued other reports, publications or documents expressing views which are different from those stated in this publication. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this publication, UOB Group makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or information in this publication. FX Insights Wednesday, 09 March 2022 14 | P a g e
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