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Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 US equities were mixed again on Wednesday, following a volatile trading session, with the S&P 500 slipping off its record-high while the Dow ended higher. Tech stocks turned villain, leading the losses to drag the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lower. US Treasuries fell, sending yields higher although the increase was very measured as FOMC Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is entering a period of quicker Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com expansion and he assured markets that the Fed will likely taper "well before" considering raising rates. The US dollar was broadly weaker against the major currencies (with the exception of the Swiss franc) Lee Sue Ann for the second straight session. The US Dollar index (DXY) ended 0.18% lower at 91.690 (from the Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com previous close of 91.852). EUR made further inroads against the dollar with the EUR/USD trading to an intraday high of 1.1987, before ending the NY session near the high at 1.1980 (from 1.1948). GBP/USD also closed higher at 1.3779 (from 1.3750). JPY appreciated against the dollar as the USD/JPY pair ended the day below the 109 handle, at 108.93 (from 109.06). AUD and NZD led the gains against the dollar among the G10 FX majors as the AUD/USD closed markedly higher at 0.7728 (from previous close of 0.7641) while the NZD/USD also settled higher at 0.7141 (from 0.7053 previously). The US Dollar was noticeably weaker against various Asian currencies the risk-on environment returned. Specifically, both the onshore CNY and offshore CNH made strong gains against the USD. As such, USD/CNY fell hard from 6.5450 to 6.53, while USD/CNH also pulled back from the high 6.54s to 6.53 as well. It was a similar story for USD/KRW which tumbled from 1,127 to 1,116. In South East Asia, USD/MYR also fell in sympathy from 4.1350 to 4.1265 while USD/IDR held firm at 14,600. In particular, USD/SGD pulled back below 1.34 to 1.3360 after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) offered a rather strong assessment of Singapore’s growth outlook going forward. Overall, the Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) rose from 107.60 to 107.90. The ADXY may well recover the 108 headline level today as the USD stays on the defensive. For today, the G7 data calendar resumes its focus on the US docket especially advance retail sales, initial jobless claims and housing data while the US corporate earnings reporting season will continue to focus on the few major US banks reporting today. Central bank speakers will focus mainly on the Fed Reserve with 2021 FOMC voters Bostic and Daly, and non-voter Mester. Over in Asia, India is scheduled to report its trade figures for the month of March, whereby trade deficit is expected to widen further. Recent publications: 14 Apr 21: Singapore: MAS Keeps Monetary Policy Unchanged; 1Q21 Advance GDP Was Better-Than- Expected 13 Apr 21: Indonesia: Government Unveiled Further Stimulus To Hasten The Economic Recovery 13 Apr 21: China: Another Month Of Robust Trade Data In March 13 Apr 21: China: Strong Credit Growth Continued In March, 1Q21 New Loans At Fresh Record High 12 Apr 21: Strong US-China Recovery: What's In It For Indonesia? FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 1|P a g e
USD/SGD: 1.3360 24-HOUR VIEW USD could edge below the overnight low of 1.3350; next major support at 1.3330 is likely out of reach. While we expected USD to weaken yesterday, we were of the view that “a sustained decline below 1.3380 is unlikely”. However, USD not only easily cracked 1.3380 but also the next support at 1.3360 (low of 1.3350 during NY hours). The rapid decline appears to be overdone but it is too soon to expect a recovery. From here. USD could edge below 1.3350 but the next major support at 1.3330 is likely out of reach. Resistance is at 1.3375 but only a move above 1.3390 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is under pressure but the solid support at 1.3330 may not be easy to break. We have expected USD to weaken since early last week (see annotations in the chart below). USD subsequently dropped to 1.3378 before trading sideways for several days. In our latest narrative from Monday (12 Apr, spot at 1.3410), we highlighted “there is still a slim chance for USD to move below 1.3360”. We added, “only a break of 1.3445 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the downside risk has dissipated”. USD did not break the ‘strong resistance’ level but cracked 1.3360 as it dropped to an overnight low of 1.3350. Further USD weakness appears likely but the solid support at 1.3330 may not be easy to break. Overall, USD is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.3415 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.3445). 1-3 MONTHS VIEW USD/SGD is likely to strengthen in the second quarter of 2021. Resistance is as at 1.3560 followed by 1.3620. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 1.3410) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.3350 R1: 1.3390 1.3406 1.3409 1.3350 1.3359 -0.46% -0.38% -0.64% +1.12% S2: 1.3330 R2: 1.3415 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 2|P a g e
EUR/USD: 1.1980 24-HOUR VIEW Conditions remain overbought but risk is still on the upside even though EUR is expected to face solid resistance at 1.2010. We expected EUR to strengthen yesterday but we noted that “overbought conditions suggest that a sustained rise above 1.1985 is unlikely”. Our view was not wrong as EUR rose to 1.1987 during NY hours before trading sideways for the rest of the session. While conditions remain overbought, the risk is still on the upside. That said, any further advance in EUR is expected to face solid resistance at 1.2010. On the downside, a break of 1.1945 (minor support is at 1.1960) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Overbought shorter-term conditions could slow the pace of advance but a break of 1.2010 would shift focus to 1.2065. There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (14 Apr, spot at 1.1950). As highlighted, “improved momentum is likely to lead to further EUR strength and the next major resistance is at 1.2010”. Overbought shorter-term conditions could slow the pace of advance but a break of 1.2010 would not be surprising. The next resistance is at 1.2065. On the downside, a breach of 1.1915 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1875 yesterday) would indicate that the EUR strength that started earlier last week (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Bias for EUR/USD is on the downside but any weakness is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1740. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 1.1970) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.1945 R1: 1.2010 1.1946 1.1987 1.1945 1.1978 +0.27% +0.91% +0.22% -1.92% S2: 1.1915 R2: 1.2065 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 3|P a g e
GBP/USD: 1.3780 24-HOUR VIEW GBP is likely to trade between 1.3740 and 1.3810. Yesterday, we noted that GBP “could edge upwards but the major resistance at 1.3810 is unlikely to come under threat”. Instead of edging upward, GBP popped to 1.3809, dropped quickly to 1.3751 before rebounding to trade sideways for the rest of the session. Upward momentum has not improved and for today, GBP is likely to trade between 1.3740 and 1.3810. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP has to close above 1.3810 before a sustained advance can be expected. On Monday (12 Apr, spot at 1.3705), we held the view that GBP is “likely to trade between 1.3670 and 1.3810”. GBP rose to 1.3809 yesterday (14 Apr) before easing off. While shorter-term momentum has not improved by much, a break of 1.3810 is not ruled out. That said, GBP has to close above 1.3810 before a sustained advance can be expected (next resistance is at 1.3850). At this stage, the prospect for such a move is not high but it would remain intact as long as GBP does not move below 1.3715 within these few days. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Risk for GBP/USD is tilted to the downside but any corrective pullback is expected to encounter solid support at 1.3530. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 1.3945) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.3740 R1: 1.3810 1.3752 1.3809 1.3751 1.3776 +0.17% +0.27% -1.39% +0.83% S2: 1.3715 R2: 1.3850 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 4|P a g e
AUD/USD: 0.7730 24-HOUR VIEW Rapid rise in AUD could extend but major resistance at 0.7785 is likely out of reach. The strong surge in AUD to 0.7738 came as a surprise (we expected AUD to strengthen but we were of the view that a break of 0.7675 is unlikely). The sharp and rapid rise is clearly overbought but robust momentum suggests that AUD could strengthen further. However, the major resistance at 0.7785 is likely out of reach (0.7760 is already quite a strong level). Support is at 0.7700 followed by 0.7680. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Risk is for a higher AUD towards 0.7785. We noted yesterday that “shorter-term momentum is beginning to improve” and we held the view that AUD “has to close above 0.7700 before a move to 0.7745 can be expected”. We did not anticipate the sudden upward acceleration as AUD surged to 0.7738 during NY hours. The rapid improvement in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD strength towards 0.7785. Overall, the risk is for a higher AUD and only a break of 0.7645 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that our view is wrong. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Outlook for AUD/USD is tilted to the downside but any weakness is unlikely to challenge the September 2020 peak at 0.7413. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 0.7810) Read More LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 0.7680 R1: 0.7760 0.7644 0.7738 0.7635 0.7723 +1.03% +1.46% -0.44% +0.40% S2: 0.7645 R2: 0.7785 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 5|P a g e
NZD/USD: 0.7145 24-HOUR VIEW NZD is likely to strengthen further even though major resistance at 0.7200 is unlikely to come into the picture for now. While our expectation for NZD to strengthen was correct, our view that 0.7100 “is unlikely to come into the picture” was not as NZD rocketed to 0.7150 during NY hours. In view of the solid momentum, NZD is likely to strengthen further even though the rather overbought conditions indicate that the major resistance at 0.7200 is unlikely to come into the picture for now (minor resistance is at 0.7170). On the downside, 0.7090 is expected to be strong enough to hold any pullback (minor support is at 0.7120). 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Rapid improvement in momentum is likely to lead to further NZD strength towards 0.7200. We highlighted yesterday that “shorter-term momentum is showing sign of improving but only a clear break of 0.7100 would indicate that NZD is ready to move higher on a sustained basis”. We did not anticipate the manner by which NZD blast past 0.7100 and rocketed to 0.7150. Rapid improvement in momentum is likely to lead to further NZD strength towards 0.7200. The current positive outlook for NZD is deemed intact as long as it does not move below 0.7065 (‘strong support’ level). 1-3 MONTHS VIEW NZD/USD is likely to trade with a downward bias but the 55-week exponential moving average is unlikely to come into the picture (dated 19 Mar 2021, 0.7240) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 0.7090 R1: 0.7170 0.7055 0.7150 0.7048 0.7140 +1.18% +1.80% -0.52% -0.57% S2: 0.7065 R2: 0.7200 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 6|P a g e
USD/JPY: 108.85 24-HOUR VIEW Room for USD to edge lower but major support at 108.40 is likely out of reach for today. Our expectations for USD to “weaken further” did not materialize as it traded in a surprisingly quiet manner between 108.74 and 109.09. Downward momentum has clearly waned but there is still room for USD to edge lower. That said, the major support at 108.40 is likely out of reach for today. Resistance is at 109.10 followed by 109.30. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Pullback in USD could extend to 108.40, with lower odds for extension to 108.00. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. We have held a negative view in USD for more than a week now (see annotations in the chart below). In our latest narrative from Monday (12 Apr, spot at 109.65), we highlighted that “downside risk in USD is still intact but chance for a sustained decline below 109.00 is not high”. In other words, we did not quite anticipate the sudden sharp decline yesterday and the ease by which USD cracked 109.00 earlier. The vastly improved momentum indicates that the pullback that started earlier last week could extend to 108.40, with lower odds for extension to 108.00. Overall, USD is deemed to be under pressure as long as 109.60 is not breached (‘strong resistance’ level was at 110.35 yesterday). 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Strong rally in USD/JPY has more room to run; break of trend-line at 110.00 would not be surprising but the February 2020 peak near 112.20 is likely out of reach within 2Q2021. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 109.00) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 108.40 R1: 109.30 109.04 109.09 108.74 108.91 -0.13% -0.85% -0.08% +5.49% S2: 108.00 R2: 109.60 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 7|P a g e
USD/CNH: 6.5320 24-HOUR VIEW Room for weakness in USD to test 6.5180 first before stabilizing. While we expected USD to weaken yesterday, we were of the view that “6.5300 is unlikely to come into the picture”. The subsequent weakness in USD exceeded our expectation as USD dropped to 6.5255. Downward momentum appears to have slowed somewhat but there is room for the weakness in USD to test 6.5180 first before stabilizing. Resistance is at 6.5400 followed by 6.5450. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Rapid improvement in momentum is expected to lead to further USD weakness but 6.5000 may not come into the picture so soon. Yesterday, we noted that USD “is under mild downward pressure and a daily closing below 6.5400 could lead to weakness towards 6.5300”. We did not anticipate the subsequent sharp decline as USD dropped to 6.5255 before closing at 6.5317. The rapid improvement in downward momentum is expected to lead to further USD weakness even though 6.5000 may not come into the picture so soon. Overall, the current downward pressure in USD is deemed intact as long as it does not move above 6.5530 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 6.5630 yesterday). 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Recovery in USD/CNH has plenty of room, both price and time-wise to extend further even though major resistance at 6.6700 could be but of reach within the second quarter of 2021. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 6.4980) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 6.5180 R1: 6.5450 6.5425 6.5478 6.5255 6.5317 -0.15% -0.27% +0.53% +0.46% S2: 6.5000 R2: 6.5530 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 8|P a g e
EUR/SGD: 1.6005 24-HOUR VIEW Chance for EUR to test 1.6035 first before easing. We highlighted yesterday that “the rapid rise appears to be overdone but there is room for the advance to test 1.6035 first before easing”. Our expectation did not materialize as EUR rose to 1.6026. Upward momentum has not improved by much but there is still chance for EUR to test 1.6035 first before easing. Support is at 1.5985 followed by 1.5960. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Momentum has improved further; EUR could strengthen towards 1.6035, possibly 1.6060. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. We have expected EUR to move higher since last Wednesday (07 Apr, spot at 1.5890; see annotations in the chart below). In our latest narrative from Monday (12 Apr, spot at 1.5965), we indicated that “upward momentum has improved slightly but any further EUR strength is likely limited to a test of 1.6000”. While our view for a stronger EUR is correct, we did not anticipate the ease by which EUR surged past 1.6000 (overnight high of 1.6026). Upward momentum has improved further and EUR could strengthen towards 1.6035, possibly as high as 1.6060. On the downside, a break of 1.5930 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.5900) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW EUR/SGD could trade sideways, roughly between the two major levels of 1.5855 and 1.6350. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 1.6030) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.5960 R1: 1.6035 1.6022 1.6026 1.5964 1.6005 -0.11% +0.53% -0.42% -0.79% S2: 1.5930 R2: 1.6060 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 9|P a g e
GBP/SGD: 1.8415 24-HOUR VIEW GBP is likely to trade sideways between 1.8370 and 1.8445. Yesterday, we highlighted that “the underlying tone has weakened somewhat but while GBP could dip below 1.8370; it is unlikely to break the major support at 1.8340”. Our expectation did not materialize as GBP traded between 1.8381 and 1.8453. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and for today, GBP is likely to trade sideways between 1.8370 and 1.8445. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP has moved into a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 1.8340 and 1.8550 for now. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (13 Apr, spot at 1.8420). As highlighted, GBP has moved into a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 1.8340 and 1.8550 for now. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW Overbought rally has room to extend but it is left to be seen if GBP/SGD can maintain a foothold above the 2018 peak of 1.8815. Next resistance is at 1.9000. (dated 19 Mar 2020, 1.8700) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.8370 R1: 1.8445 1.8437 1.8453 1.8381 1.8405 -0.17% -0.08% -1.69% +1.90% S2: 1.8340 R2: 1.8550 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 10 | P a g e
AUD/SGD: 1.0320 24-HOUR VIEW Sharp rally has scope to extend but overbought conditions could limit any advance to 1.0350. The swift and sharp rally in AUD to 1.0329 came as a surprise (we were expecting AUD to consolidate). The rally has scope to extend but overbought conditions indicate that any advance could be limited to 1.0350. Support is at 1.0295 followed by 1.0275. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is expected to trade with an upward bias but 1.0385 may not come into the picture so soon. We highlighted yesterday that “a break of 1.0270 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased”. We did not anticipate the sudden surge that sent AUD to 1.0329. The rapid improvement in momentum indicates that AUD could strengthen further even though the major resistance at 1.0385 may not come into the picture so soon. Overall, AUD is expected to trade with an upward bias as long as it does not move below the ‘strong support’ at 1.0250. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW AUD/SGD could strengthen but lackluster momentum suggests odds for a sustained rise above the 2018 peak of 1.0630 are not high. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 1.0490) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.0275 R1: 1.0350 1.0243 1.0329 1.0217 1.0321 +0.74% +1.07% -1.16% +0.81% S2: 1.0250 R2: 1.0385 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 11 | P a g e
JPY/SGD: 1.2275 24-HOUR VIEW JPY is likely to trade sideways between 1.2250 and 1.2300. Our expectation for JPY to “move above 1.2315” was incorrect as it dropped to 1.2243 before recovering slightly (high has been 1.2307). Indicators are mostly flat and for today, JPY is likely to trade sideways between 1.2250 and 1.2300. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW Upward momentum has improved; a break of 1.2315 would shift the focus to 1.2350. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. On Monday (12 Apr, spot at 1.2255), we highlighted that JPY “is expected to trade with an upside bias towards 1.2315”. We added, “at this stage, the prospect for a sustained advance above this level is not high”. We did not quite anticipate the strong rise in JPY to an overnight high of 1.2299. Upward momentum has improved and a break of 1.2315 would shift the focus to 1.2350. Overall, only a break of 1.2230 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.2200) would indicate that the upside risk has dissipated. 1-3 MONTHS VIEW JPY/SGD could breach the 2020 low of 1.2200; chance for decline to extend to the 2019 low of 1.2060 is not high. (dated 19 Mar 2021, 1.2330) Read more LEVELS Ranges 14 Apr 21 Percentage change Support Resistance Open High Low Close 1D 1W 1M YTD S1: 1.2250 R1: 1.2315 1.2296 1.2307 1.2243 1.2263 -0.27% +0.46% -0.58% -4.13% S2: 1.2230 R2: 1.2350 FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 12 | P a g e
UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook FX Outlook 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 Rates Outlook 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 EUR/USD 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 EU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% GBP/USD 1.38 1.40 1.41 1.42 UK 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% AUD/USD 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79 AU 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% NZD/USD 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 NZ 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% USD/JPY 109 108 107 107 JP -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% USD/SGD 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.32 SG (3M SOR) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% USD/MYR 4.15 4.10 4.05 4.05 MY 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% USD/THB 31.10 31.20 31.50 31.50 TH 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% USD/CNY 6.55 6.50 6.40 6.40 CN 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% USD/IDR 14,600 14,700 14,800 14,800 ID 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.75% USD/PHP 48.50 48.20 48.00 48.00 PH 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% USD/INR 74.00 74.50 75.00 75.50 IN 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% USD/TWD 28.50 28.30 28.20 28.20 TW 1.13% 1.13% 1.13% 1.13% USD/HKD 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 HK 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% USD/KRW 1,150 1,130 1,100 1,100 KR 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% US 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Last updated on 31 Mar 21: Potent Fiscal Forces To Fuel More USD Uncertainty Last Updated on 19 Mar 21: From Reflation Bliss To Inflation Woes Central Bank Meetings 2021 Central Bank Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Federal Reserve (FOMC) 27 - 17* 28 - 16* 28 - 22* - 03 15* European Central Bank (ECB) 21 - 11 22 - 06 22 - 09 28 - 16 Bank of England (BOE) - 04# 18 - 06# 24 - 05# 23 - 04# 16 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - 02 02 06 04 01 07 03 07 05 02 07 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) - 24^ - 14 26^ - 14 18^ - 06 24^ - Bank of Japan (BOJ) 21** - 19 27** - 18 16** - 22 28** - 17** Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - - - 14 - - - - - tba - - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) 20 - 04 - 06 - 08 - 09 - 03 - Bank of Thailand (BOT) - 03 24 - 05 23 - 04 29 - 10 22 Bank Indonesia (BI) 23 18 18 14 19 18 16 19 17 13 19 17 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) - 11 25 - 13 23 - 12 23 - 11 16 Bank of Korea (BOK) 15 25 - 15 27 - 15 26 - 12 25 - Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) - - 18 - - 17 - - 23 - - 16 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - 5 - 07 - - - - - - - - *Meetings associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. # Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Report. ^Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Statement. **Meetings associated with release of Outlook Report. FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 13 | P a g e
Disclaimer This publication is strictly for informational purposes only and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose, and is also not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to its laws or regulations. This publication is not an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment product/securities/instruments. Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. The information contained in this publication is based on certain assumptions and analysis of publicly available information and reflects prevailing conditions as of the date of the publication. Any opinions, projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or performance of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The views expressed within this publication are solely those of the author’s and are independent of the actual trading positions of United Overseas Bank Limited, its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers and employees (“UOB Group”). Views expressed reflect the author’s judgment as at the date of this publication and are subject to change. UOB Group may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in the securities/instruments mentioned in the publication. UOB Group may have also issued other reports, publications or documents expressing views which are different from those stated in this publication. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this publication, UOB Group makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or information in this publication. FX Insights Thursday, 15 April 2021 14 | P a g e
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