Field Dates: March 23-24, 2022 - Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll
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SURVEY METHOD Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political This survey was conducted ideology where necessary to align them with their actual online within the United proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting States from Field Dates: was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. March 23-24, 2022 among 1,990 registered voters The poll was supervised by pollsters: by The Harris Poll. Mark Penn (Chairman, The Harris Poll) Dritan Nesho (CEO, HarrisX) Prof. Stephen Ansolabehere (CAPS Director, Harvard) 2
APPROVAL AND MOOD OF COUNTRY 3
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. % Who Say “Right Track” ONLY ONE THIRD OF VOTERS TODAY SAY 04/21 5/21 6/21 7/21 9/21 10/21 11/21 01/22 02/22 03/22 THE COUNTRY IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK GOP 25% 27% 32% 28% 19% 11% 18% 14% 12% 13% DEM 75% 76% 81% 73% 71% 66% 60% 58% 53% 62% Country: Right Track / Wrong Track IND 41% 36% 44% 32% 29% 28% 26% 28% 20% 24% 70% 65% 64% 62% 63% 62% 61%60% 59% 60% 60% 59% 58% 58% 60% 55%55% 56% 55% 56%55% 56%55% 58% 56%56% 55%54% 54% 55%54% 54% 54%55% 53% 54% 53%53% 53%53% 53%54%52% 53%53%53% 53% 54% 52% 52%52%52% 52% 52% 50% 48% 50% 47%46%48%47% 47% 46% 43%43%44%43% 40% 41% 41% 39%39%39%38%39%40%38% 38%38%38%39%38% 39% 39%39% 39% 40% 37% 36% 37%37% 35%36% 36% 37%37%37% 37%36% 36%35% 34% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32%32% 30%30% 30% 31% 30% 29% 29% 30% 27%27% 27% 20% 14%14%14%14% 14% 15% 13% 12%12%12% 12% 10% 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10%10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 10% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 0% Ja 0 M 17 Oc 7 M 18 Oc 8 M 19 Oc 9 M 20 Oc 0 M 21 Oc 1 M 22 J u 18 Ju 7 Ju 9 Ju 0 Ju 1 Ja 7 A u 18 Ja 8 Ja 9 De 17 De 18 De 19 Ja 1 Ju 7 J u 18 Ju 9 Ju 0 Ju 1 Fe 8 Fe 9 Fe 0 Fe 1 Fe 2 M 7 No 7 M 8 No 8 M 9 No 9 M 0 No 0 M 1 No 1 Se 7 Se 8 Se 9 Se 0 Ap 7 Ap 8 Ap 9 Ap 0 Ap 1 22 Au 7 Au 9 Au 0 Se 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 c1 c1 c1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 r1 t1 r1 t1 r1 t1 r2 t2 r2 t2 g1 g1 g1 g2 1 1 1 2 2 2 l1 l1 l2 l2 v- ly ay ay ay ay ay b p b p b p b p b p b ar ar ar ar ar ar ne n n n n n n n n n v v v v Fe Right track Wrong track Don't know / Unsure 4 M1. In general, do you think the country is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VIEWS OF THE DIRECTION OF AMERICAN ECONOMY % Who Say “Right Track” HAVE TICKED UP SLIGHTLY BUT STILL 04/21 5/21 6/21 7/21 9/21 10/21 11/21 01/22 02/22 03/22 SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERWATER GOP 28% 27% 29% 28% 20% 11% 16% 13% 9% 13% DEM 70% 76% 71% 67% 66% 60% 55% 50% 49% 57% US Economy: Right Track / Wrong Track IND 39% 36% 45% 30% 29% 27% 24% 23% 15% 22% 70% 60% 65% 64% 56% 62% 51% 51% 51% 60% 60% 60% 58% 58% 57% 58% 57% 58% 47% 47% 49% 48% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 50% 46% 46% 47% 55% 47% 47% 53% 44% 45% 43% 45% 43% 44% 52% 43% 51% 42% 49% 40% 39% 45% 46% 45% 40% 43% 44% 36% 35% 36% 36% 41% 41% 42% 41% 41% 33% 32% 42% 42% 42% 42% 34% 40% 39% 39% 39% 38% 32% 32% 38% 39% 37% 39% 37% 37% 39% 41% 30% 30% 29% 29% 36% 35% 30% 27% 26% 20% 17% 10% 16% 15% 14% 13% 14% 12% 13% 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 15% 16% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 0% Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Apr 18 Arp 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Nov-20 Sep 18 Feb 19 Sep 19 Feb 20 Sep 20 Feb 21 Sep 21 Feb 22 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 21 June 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 July 18 Dec 18 Dec 19 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Right track Wrong track Don't know / Unsure 5 M2. In general, do you think the American economy is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. PERCEIVED STRENGTH OF U.S. ECONOMY REMAINS AT A LOW FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION How strong do you think the U.S. economy is today? 80% 74% 75% 74% 72% 71% 71% 69% 72% 70% 69% 68%68% 69% 70% 71% 70% 70% 71% 69% 70% 70% 70% 66% 66%66% 62% 63% 63% 69% 59% 59% 60% 57% 54% 56% 63% 56%52%55% 54% 61%61% 53%51% 62% 50% 57% 57% 57% 43% 43% 39% 48% 53% 37% 45% 38% 40% 43%44% 47% 49%46% 47% 46% 43% 41% 31% 41% 44% 39% 37% 38% 37% 30% 34% 34%34% 30% 31% 32%32% 31% 30% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 31% 28% 31% 30% 30% 28% 29% 20% 26% 25% 26% 10% 0% Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 June 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 Nov-20 Nov 18 Jul 19 Nov 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Nov 21 July 18 Dec 18 Dec 19 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Feb 18 Sep 18 Feb 19 Sep 19 Feb 20 Sep 20 Feb 21 Sep 21 Feb 22 Strong Weak 6 I3. How strong do you think the U.S. economy is today?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MORE THAN TWICE AS MANY VOTERS SAY THEY ARE FINANCIALLY ‘GETTING WORSE’ TODAY AS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO “No opinion” removed Would you say that your personal financial situation is improving or getting worse? as response option in November 2021 60% 50% 53% 42% 42% 46% 49% 41% 41% 40% 38% 39% 40% 37%38%37% 38% 36%35%37%37% 38% 36% 45% 37% 35% 34% 34% 36%35% 35%35%36%35%36%35%36% 35% 35%37%36%36% 43% 35% 37% 34% 38% 38% 40% 33% 33% 40%40% 40% 40% 33% 31%31% 38% 36% 38% 32% 38% 39% 32% 36% 36% 37% 38%29%30% 37% 30% 30% 25% 29% 33% 28% 30% 25% 32% 32% 27% 33% 33% 26% 32% 34% 27% 27%25% 30% 33% 25%24% 25% 22% 22% 31% 31%31%30% 22% 23% 21%21% 29% 29% 20% 26% 26%25% 27% 27% 20% 24% 25%25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23%23% 23% 23% 23% 23%22% 22% 21% 23% 21% 22% 22% 22%21%22% 20% 20% 10% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 0% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 4% June 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 Nov 18 Jul 19 Nov 19 Jul 20 Nov 20 Jul 21 Nov 21 July 18 Dec 18 Dec 19 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Sep 18 Feb 19 Sep 19 Feb 20 Sep 20 Feb 21 Sep 21 Feb 22 Improving Getting worse Just as well off No opinion 7 I4. Would you say that your personal financial situation is improving or getting worse?
BIDEN’S APPROVAL IS STEADY MONTH OVER MONTH, NOW AT 39 PERCENT President Biden Overall Approval 57% 59% 61% 62% 52% 48% 43% 45% 39% 38% 39% 20% 18% 17% 21% 26% 24% 23% 33% 33% 30% 33% 21% 21% Strongly approve 25% 18% 20% 24% Somewhat approve 26% 24% 26% 30% 26% 13% 16% 17% 16% 14% Somewhat disapprove 14% 13% 9% 9% 10% 11% Strongly disapprove 40% 39% 38% 30% 36% 35% 37% Not sure 30% 29% 23% 26% 4% 4% 3% 7% 5% 2% 6% 4% 7% 7% 6% Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 Mar 22 8 M3ALT. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President of the United States?
MOST VOTERS DO NOT APPROVE OF BIDEN IN ANY GIVEN AREA Approve Biden on… (Strongly or Somewhat Approve) January February 2021 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 Sept 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 (Trump) (Biden) The Economy 56% 61% 60% 60% 62% 61% 54% 44% 40% 41% 35% 33% 35% Stimulating Jobs 58% 58% 59% 59% 62% 61% 57% 46% 44% 45% 41% 38% 39% Fighting Terrorism 55% 59% 59% 58% 59% 59% 54% 41% 39% 40% 38% 34% 36% Immigration 52% 56% 48% 52% 53% 52% 49% 40% 35% 35% 34% 32% 34% Foreign Affairs 52% 61% 56% 58% 58% 59% 53% 40% 39% 39% 35% 33% 38% Administering the 49% 62% 60% 62% 61% 62% 57% 45% 42% 44% 40% 38% 35% Gov't Reacting to coronavirus 47% 68% 71% 69% 70% 69% 63% 52% 50% 50% 44% 44% 42% Dealing with violence and crime in the 55% 56% 56% 50% 41% 38% 39% 36% 33% 34% country Handling inflation 31% 28% 33% 9 M3A. Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Biden is doing on …?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. GOP APPROVAL IS SPLIT 50/50 GOP Approval “Don’t know” removed 70% as response option in 57%59% November 2021 61%61%60%60% 61%61% 70%59% 59%58%58%60%58%59% 59%59% 60% 71%72% 57%58% 57%56% 55%55%56%54%54% 54% 56%55%56% 54%54% 54% 55% 52% 51% 51% 52%53% 51%52% 50% 50% 47% 53% 49% 49% 49%48% 50% 48% 48% 45%45%44% 46%46% 46% 46%46% 40% 29%28% 43%42% 44%45%44% 43%44% 43% 45% 40%40%30%41% 41%42%42%40%42%41% 41%41% 39%39% 39%39% 39% 43%41% 30% 20% 10% 5% 7% 0% Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 June 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 Nov-20 July 18 Nov 18 Jul 19 Nov 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Nov 21 Dec 18 Dec 19 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Sep 18 Feb 19 Sep 19 Feb 20 Sep 20 Feb 21 Sep 21 Feb 22 Approve Disapprove Don't know 10 M4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republican Party is handling its job?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL REMAINS IN LOW 40’S “Don’t know” removed Democratic Party Approval as response option in November 2021 70% 59% 60%59% 60% 56%58%57%58%56%58%58% 57%56% 56%56%57%57% 58% 54%54%65%54% 54% 54%54%54%53%54%54%53%54%54% 54%54% 55% 55%52%53% 55%55% 52% 52%52% 53%53% 50% 50% 55% 45% 50% 48% 48%48% 47% 47% 45%45%48% 46%46%35%46% 46% 46%46%46%47%46%46%47%46%46% 46%46% 45% 40% 44% 44% 43%44% 44%44%43%43% 42%43%42% 42%42%41% 43% 42% 40%41% 38% 30% 20% 10% 4% 0% June 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 Nov-20 Nov 18 Jul 19 Nov 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Nov 21 July 18 Dec 18 Dec 19 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Sep 18 Feb 19 Sep 19 Feb 20 Sep 20 Feb 21 Sep 21 Feb 22 Approve Disapprove Don't know 11 M5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democratic Party is handling its job?
VOTERS OVERALL APPROVAL OF CONGRESS REMAINS IN LOW 30’S Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job? 39% 49% 46% 54% 45% 36% 31% 32% 30% 30% 34% 11% 10% 9% 8% 10% 13% 16% 16% 15% 13% 19% 21% 22% 24% 20% 22% 23% Strongly approve 34% 30% 30% 34% 35% Somewhat approve 28% 27% 30% 28% 28% Somewhat disapprove 26% Strongly disapprove 31% 33% 30% 27% 28% Don't know 32% 33% 30% 32% 29% 31% 23% 23% 22% 25% 18% 7% 8% 9% 11% 10% 9% March 21April 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 Mar 22 12 CON1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job?
TRUMP, PENCE AND SANDERS ARE TOP THREE Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST FAVORABLE POLITICAL FIGURES Favorable Unfavorable (NET) (NET) Donald Trump 27% 19% 2% 8% 11% 34% Donald Trump 48% 44% Mike Pence 15% 29% 4% 13% 18% 21% Mike Pence 44% 40% Ted Cruz 14% 27% 5% 17% 14% 22% Bernie Sanders 42% 40% Bernie Sanders 16% 23% 3% 13% 14% 31% Ted Cruz 40% 38% Joe Biden 18% 20% 1% 7% 13% 40% Joe Biden 40% 52% Favorability of Ron DeSantis 19% 18% 13% 21% 11% 17% Hillary Clinton 39% 51% Political Figures Kamala Harris 16% 20% 2% 10% 11% 40% Ron DeSantis 38% 30% Hillary Clinton 14% 21% 2% 10% 14% 40% Kamala Harris 38% 51% Very favorable Nancy Pelosi 13% 18% 4% 11% 11% 43% Nancy Pelosi 34% 54% Favorable Joe Manchin 10% 21% 15% 23% 15% 15% Joe Manchin 30% 31% Never heard of them Mitch McConnell 9% 21% 6% 19% 19% 25% Mike Pompeo 30% 32% Mike Pompeo 10% 19% 10% 29% 14% 18% Chuck Schumer 30% 42% No opinion Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12% 16% 10% 17% 11% 33% Mitch McConnell 29% 46% Unfavorable Tim Scott 11% 16% 23% 29% 10% 11% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 28% 42% Very unfavorable Chuck Schumer 9% 17% 9% 20% 14% 31% Tim Scott 27% 22% Kyrsten Sinema 7% 17% 24% 24% 13% 14% Anthony Blinken 25% 26% Chris Cuomo 7% 14% 8% 21% 16% 34% Kyrsten Sinema 23% 27% Anthony Blinken 7% 13% 27% 28% 11% 15% Chris Cuomo 23% 45% Andrew Cuomo 6% 13% 9% 20% 16% 37% Vladimir Putin 13% 74% 13 F1. Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group – or if you’ve never heard of them.
MILITARY, AMAZON AND POLICE ARE MOST FAVORABLE Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INSTITUTIONS Favorable Unfavorable (NET) (NET) U.S. Military 43% 35% 2% 7% 6% 6% U.S. Military 79% 12% Amazon 37% 37% 1% 8% 9% 8% Amazon 74% 17% Favorability Police 32% 37% 2% 8% 13% 9% Police 69% 22% of Institutions FBI 21% 39% 2% 12% 15% 12% FBI 59% 27% U.S. Supreme Court 17% 39% 1% 15% 18% 9% U.S. Supreme Court 57% 27% Centers for Disease Control 23% 34% 3% 11% 15% 15% Centers for Disease Control 57% 30% NATO 18% 36% 5% 18% 12% 10% NATO 55% 22% Very favorable Department of Justice 32% Favorable 15% 37% 2% 14% 18% 15% Department of Justice 52% Never heard of them Facebook 20% 28% 1% 8% 17% 25% Facebook 48% 42% No opinion Black Lives Matter 21% 24% 2% 11% 11% 31% Black Lives Matter 45% 42% Unfavorable Twitter 14% 22% 2% 19% 16% 27% Twitter 36% 43% Very unfavorable China 5% 12% 1% 15% 24% 42% China 17% 67% Antifa 7% 10% 13% 19% 11% 39% Antifa 17% 51% Russia 5% 7% 2% 11% 15% 60% Russia 12% 75% 14 F1. Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group – or if you’ve never heard of them.
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INFLATION IS THE TOP ISSUE FACING AMERICAN VOTERS What would you say are the most important issues facing the country today? Please select three. Price increases / inflation 32% new Economy and jobs 27% -6 Immigration 21% -5 Coronavirus 19% -7 Health care 18% Terrorism / national security 18% National debt / federal budget deficits 15% Crime and drugs 14% Environment / climate change 14% Corruption 12% Guns 9% Taxes 9% Criminal justice (policing, courts, prisons) 9% Voting rights 8% Foreign policy 8% Race relations 8% Cybersecurity 7% Education 7% Income inequality 6% Political correctness / cancel culture 6% Defense 6% School safety 6% Women's rights 6% Policing 5% Civil disorder 5% January 6th 5% Other 2% 15 I1. What would you say are the most important issues facing the country today?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MORE THAN HALF OF VOTERS SAY INFLATION IS THEIR BIGGEST OR SECOND BIGGEST CONCERN What is your greatest / second greatest concern? Right now, which is your greatest concern Which is your second greatest concern Inflation 35% 18% 53% Foreign policy issues like Ukraine 17% 16% 33% Energy prices 10% 19% 30% Crime 11% 12% 23% Immigration 9% 11% 21% Stopping climate change 9% 9% 18% Promoting racial equity 5% 7% 12% Curbing political correctness 4% 7% 11% 16 ISSX: What is your greatest / second greatest concern?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. THREE-QUARTERS OF VOTERS SAY THEY HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY INFLATION How much have you personally been impacted Which impacts of inflation/ rising prices have by inflation, if at all? you felt the most, if any? Groceries 40% A lot 35% 76% Fuel 36% (up from 67% in Jan) Rent 7% Somewhat 41% Major purchases / appliances 4% Real estate 3% A little 19% Dining out 3% Travel 3% Clothes 2% Not at all 5% Other 2% INF1x: How much have you personally been impacted by inflation, if at all? 17 INF2x: Which impacts of inflation/ rising prices have you felt the most, if any?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. FEW VOTERS THINK THAT INFLATION WILL TAPER OFF Do you think inflation will taper off, stay high or get even Do you favor the Federal Reserve aggressively raising higher? interest rates to fight rising inflation or do you oppose it because that will do more harm than good? 46% 53% 47% 35% 19% Taper off Stay high Get even higher Favor Oppose INF3xMarch22: Do you think inflation will taper off, stay high or get even higher? 18 INF4xMarch22: Do you favor the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to fight rising inflation or do you oppose it because that will do more harm than good?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MORE VOTERS FEEL OPTIMISTIC THAN PESSIMISTIC OVER THE NEXT YEAR In general, are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic about In general, how much do you think your life your life over the next year? has returned to normal since the start of the pandemic? Mostly returned to normal 26% 34% Somewhat returned to normal 43% 43% 23% Not really returned to normal 23% Not at all 8% Optimistic Pessimistic About the same OUT1: In general, are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic about your life over the next year? 19 OUT2: In general, how much do you think your life has returned to normal since the start of the pandemic?
MIDTERMS & HORSERACE 20
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CONGRESSIONAL (GENERIC) HORSERACE STRONGLY FAVORS GOP Democrat Republican If the congressional election were held today would you be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Democrat 94% 6% Congress? Republican 6% 94% Independent + Other 39% 61% Male 47% 53% Female 48% 52% White 41% 59% Black or African 73% 27% 53% American Hispanic, Latino, or 47% 56% 44% Spanish origin 18-34 56% 44% 35-54 48% 52% 55+ 41% 59% Urban 66% 34% Suburban 44% 56% Democrat Republican Rural 30% 70% 21 CON2022A: If the congressional election were held today would you be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST SAY THEY HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT BIDEN’S MENTAL FITNESS He is mentally fit I have doubts about his fitness Is Joe Biden mentally fit to serve as President of the United States or do you have doubts about Democrat 78% 22% his fitness for office? Republican 19% 81% (Split sample) Independent + 35% 65% Other Male 47% 53% Female 44% 56% White 40% 60% 55% Black or African American 66% 34% 45% Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin 52% 48% 18-34 50% 50% 35-54 47% 53% 55+ 40% 60% He is mentally fit Urban 61% 39% Suburban 42% 58% I have doubts about his fitness Rural 29% 71% 22 BID1. Is Joe Biden mentally fit to serve as President of the United States or do you have doubts about his fitness for office?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CLOSE TO TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS SAY BIDEN IS SHOWING HE IS TOO OLD TO BE PRESIDENT Do you think Joe Biden is showing he is Showing he is too Showing he is fit to too old to be President or do you think he old be president is showing he is fit to be president? Democrat 33% 67% Republican 88% 12% Independent + 68% 32% Other Male 63% 37% 62% Female 62% 38% White 64% 36% Black or African 43% 57% American 38% Hispanic, Latino, or 67% 33% Spanish origin 18-34 63% 37% 35-54 57% 43% 55+ 65% 35% Urban 47% 53% Showing he is too old Suburban 65% 35% Rural 75% 25% Showing he is fit to be president 23 BID2. Do you think Joe Biden is showing he is too old to be President or do you think he is showing he is fit to be president?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS ARE UNSURE IF BIDEN CAN HANDLE DIFFICULT INTERNATIONAL ISSUES Able Not Able Democrat 80% 20% Do you think President Biden is able to handle difficult international issues like defending Ukraine from the Russians Republican 17% 83% and protecting Taiwan from China or is he not able to handle Independent + 34% 66% these kinds of problems? Other Male 48% 52% Female 42% 58% White 40% 60% Black or African 64% 36% American 55% Hispanic, Latino, 48% 52% or Spanish origin 45% 18-34 53% 47% 35-54 46% 54% 55+ 38% 62% Urban 63% 37% Suburban 41% 59% Able Not able Rural 30% 70% BID3: Do you think President Biden is able to handle difficult international issues like defending Ukraine from the Russians and protecting Taiwan from China or is he not able to 24 handle these kinds of problems?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. IN DEMOCRATIC HORSERACE, BIDEN IS THE FAVORITE BUT ONLY COLLECTS THE SUPPORT OF A THIRD OF DEMOCRATS TODAY If the Democratic presidential primary for the If President Biden decides not to run again in 2024 election was held today, who would you 2024, who would you prefer to be the vote for? (DEM voters) Democratic candidate? (DEM voters) Joe Biden 34% Kamala Harris 28% Kamala Harris 13% Hillary Clinton 15% Hillary Clinton 11% Bernie Sanders 9% Bernie Sanders 6% Pete Buttigieg Pete Buttigieg 8% 6% Elizabeth Warren 4% Stacey Abrams 6% Stacey Abrams 4% Elizabeth Warren 4% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4% Joe Manchin 2% Amy Klobuchar 4% Amy Klobuchar 2% Joe Manchin 3% Someone else 5% Someone else 5% Don't know/Unsure 12% Don't know/Unsure 13% DEM2024A: If the Democratic presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for? 25 DEM2024B: If President Biden decides not to run again in 2024, who would you prefer to be the Democratic candidate?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. TRUMP IS A CLEAR FAVORITE IN A PROSPECTIVE GOP PRIMARY; PENCE AND DESANTIS ARE RUNNERS UP If the Republican presidential primary for the If former President Donald Trump does not 2024 election was held today, who would you run for president in 2024, who would you vote for? (GOP voters) vote for in the GOP primary? (GOP voters) Donald Trump 59% Ron DeSantis 28% Mike Pence 11% Mike Pence 24% Ron DeSantis 10% Ted Cruz 10% Nikki Haley 3% Nikki Haley 6% Marco Rubio 3% Ted Cruz 2% Marco Rubio 5% Tim Scott 2% Mike Pompeo 3% Mike Pompeo 1% Tim Scott 2% Someone else 2% Someone else 5% Don’t know / Unsure 6% Don’t know / Unsure 16% GOPPRIM1. If the Republican presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for? 26 GOPPRIM2. If former President Donald Trump does not run for president in 2024, who would you vote for in the GOP primary?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. TRUMPS WINS HYPOTHETICAL HORSERACES VERSUS BIDEN OR HARRIS If the 2024 election for President were If the 2024 election for President were If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald held today and it was between Donald held today and it was between Ron Trump, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Trump, the Republican and Kamala DeSantis, the Republican and Kamala Democrat, who would you vote for? Harris, the Democrat, who would you Harris, the Democrat, who would you vote for? vote for? 41% 40% 38% 47% 49% 38% 12% 22% 13% Donald Trump Donald Trump Ron DeSantis Joe Biden Kamala Harris Kamala Harris Don't Know / Unsure Don't Know / Unsure Don't Know / Unsure H3: If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Democrat, who would you vote for? H5: If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican and Kamala Harris, the Democrat, who would you vote for? 27 H7: If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Ron DeSantis, the Republican and Kamala Harris, the Democrat, who would you vote for?
ISSUES IN THE NEWS 28
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY SUPPORT REMOVING DISTRICT ATTORNEYS THAT ARE PULLING BACK ON PROSECUTING VIOLENT OFFENDERS Turning to the issue of crime. Do you think big city district Would you support or oppose removing district attorneys attorneys today are prosecuting violent offenders that are pulling back on prosecuting violent offenders? sufficiently or are they pulling back from prosecuting them? 63% 52% 48% 37% Prosecuting violent offenders sufficiently Pulling back from prosecuting them Support Oppose CRI1xMarch22: Turning to the issue of crime. Do you think big city district attorneys today are prosecuting violent offenders sufficiently or are they pulling back from prosecuting them? 29 CRI2xMarch22: Would you support or oppose removing district attorneys that are pulling back on prosecuting violent offenders?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. A MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT THE APPROVAL OF KETANJI BROWN JACKSON TO SCOTUS Do you support or oppose the U.S. Senate voting to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson, President Biden's choice for the Supreme Court? 57% 43% Support Oppose 30 SCO1: Do you support or oppose the U.S. Senate voting to confirm Kentanji Brown Jackson, President Biden's choice for the Supreme Court?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. A LARGE MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK GENDER TRANSITIONING ATHLETES SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN OPPOSITE SEX SPORTING EVENTS Should athletes in the process of changing genders be able to compete in the other sex's sport events or not be allowed to compete? Allowed Not Allowed Democrat 60% 40% Republican 20% 80% 63% Independent + 32% 68% Other 18-34 56% 44% 37% 35-54 48% 52% 55-64 24% 76% 65+ 18% 82% Allowed to compete Not allowed to compete 31 GEN1xMarch22: Should athletes in the process of changing genders be able to compete in the other sex's sport events or not be allowed to compete?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. A LARGE MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK GENDER TRANSITIONING ATHLETES SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN OPPOSITE SEX SPORTING EVENTS Do you think info about sexuality should be taught in Taught Not Taught schools at kindergarten through third grade levels or Democrat 50% 50% should such topics be left to parents to discuss with their young children? Republican 18% 82% Independent + 32% 68% Other White 28% 72% 67% Black/ AA 44% 56% Hispanic 44% 56% Asian 49% 51% 33% 18-34 52% 48% 35-54 38% 62% 55-64 22% 78% Taught in schools 65+ 18% 82% Be left to parents to discuss with their children GEN1xMarch22: Should athletes in the process of changing genders be able to compete in the other sex's sport events or not be allowed to compete? 32 GEN2xMarch22: Do you think info about sexuality should be taught in schools at kindergarten through third grade levels or should such topics be left to parents to discuss with their young children?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF VOTERS FAVOR LIFTING MASK MANDATES FOR KIDS IN SCHOOL Do you think kids in school should have to continue to weak masks all day in school or is it time to lift those mandates? Continue Lift Mandates Democrat 69% 31% Republican 29% 71% Independent + 48% 52% 48% 52% Other Urban 62% 38% Suburban 46% 54% Rural 39% 61% Continue to wear masks in school Lift the mandates 33 COV202: Do you think kids in school should have to continue to weak masks all day in school or is it time to lift those mandates?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST VOTERS SAY THEY WILL NOT RETURN TO AN OFFICE Do you presently work in an Are you going back to work in the Is that because of Covid or because office? office or not going back? you prefer working from home? [Among those not going back] 68% 75% 57% 43% 32% 25% Because of concerns about Covid Yes No Going back Not going back Because I prefer to work from home COV203: Do you presently work in an office? COV204: Are you going back to work in the office or not going back? 34 COV205: Is that because of Covid or because you prefer working from home?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS MARGINALLY SAY THAT DEM-LED STATES DID BETTER IN CONTROLLING COVID Do you think Democratic states have done a better job controlling Covid and keeping the economy open or that Republican states have done a better job of controlling Covid while keeping the economy open? 52% 48% Democratic states have done a better job Republican states have done a better COV206: Do you think Democratic states have done a better job controlling Covid and keeping the economy open or that Republican states have done a better job of controlling 35 Covid while keeping the economy open?
WAR IN UKRAINE 36
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VIRTUALLY ALL VOTERS HAVE SOME IDEA OF THE RUSSIA INVASION OF UKRAINE Have you been paying attention to Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, or have you not had the chance to? Paying close attention 47% Paying some attention 43% Have not had the chance to 10% 37 UKR1xMarch22: Have you been paying attention to Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, or have you not had the chance to?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST SAY THAT BIDEN HAS BEEN TOO LENIENT IN DEALING WITH RUSSIA AND THAT PUTIN WOULD NOT HAVE INVADED IF TRUMP WAS PRESIDENT Do you think President Biden has been too lenient, to harsh, or just about right in his response to Russia's Would Vladimir Putin be moving against Ukraine if invasion of Ukraine so far? Donald Trump were president? 15% 58% 52% 42% 33% Too lenient Too harsh Just about right Yes No UKR2xMarch22: Do you think President Biden has been too lenient, to harsh, or just about right in his response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine so far? 38 UKR13: Would Vladimir Putin be moving against Ukraine if Donald Trump were president?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST SAY THAT BIDEN AND NATO HAVE NOT GONE FAR ENOUGH IN PUNISHING RUSSIA Have President Biden and NATO allies gone far enough in sanctioning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, or do they need to roll out more punishing measures on Russia? 70% 30% Gone far enough in sanctioning Russia Need to roll out more punishing measures 39 UKR3xMarch22: Have President Biden and NATO allies gone far enough in sanctioning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, or do they need to roll out more punishing measures on Russia?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MORE THAN 7 IN 10 VOTERS SUPPORT NATO AND THE U.S. PROVIDING VARIOUS FORMS OF MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE Do you support or oppose the United States and NATO Do you support or oppose the United States and NATO sending missile defense systems for Ukrainians to defend sending military aircraft to the Ukrainian air force or not? their population centers or not? 76% 71% 29% 24% Support Oppose Support Oppose UKR4xMarch22: Do you support or oppose the United States and NATO sending missile defense systems for Ukrainians to defend their population centers or not? 40 UKR5xMarch22: Do you support or oppose the United States and NATO sending military aircraft to the Ukrainian air force or not?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST VOTERS SUPPORT IMPOSING A NO-FLY ZONE OVER UKRAINIAN CITIES TO PREVENT THE BOMBING OF CIVILIAN CENTERS; THEY ARE SPLIT BUT LEANING AWAY FROM PUTTING BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE Should the United States and NATO impose a no-fly zone over Do you support or oppose the United States and NATO Ukrainian cities to prevent the bombing of civilian centers by Russia, sending troops into Ukraine at this stage of the conflict? or should they not directly interfere for fear of creating a direct confrontation with Russia? 57% 53% 47% 43% Impose a no-fly zone over Ukrainian cities Not directly interfere Support Oppose UKR6xMarch22: Should the United States and NATO impose a no-fly zone over Ukrainian cities to prevent the bombing of civilian centers by Russia, or should they not directly interfere for fear of creating a direct confrontation with Russia? 41 UKR7xMarch22: Do you support or oppose the United States and NATO sending troops into Ukraine at this stage of the conflict?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY ARE CONVINCED THAT RUSSIAN LEADERS HAVE COMMITTED WAR CRIMES, BELIEVING THEY SHOULD BE TRIED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE Do you think so far Russia has committed war crimes in its Should Russian leaders involved in the planning and invasion of Ukraine or not? execution of Russia's invasion of Ukraine be investigated, and if found guilty, tried by the International Court of Justice or not? 86% 86% 14% 14% Yes No Yes No UKR8xMarch22: Do you think so far Russia has committed war crimes in its invasion of Ukraine or not? 42 UKR9xMarch22: Should Russian leaders involved in the planning and execution of Russia's invasion of Ukraine be investigated, and if found guilty, tried by the International Court of Justice or not?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS BELIEVE VLADIMIR PUTIN IS PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WAR CRIMES Do you think so far Vladimir Putin is personally responsible for actions leading to war crimes in Russia's invasion of Ukraine or not? 84% 16% Yes, Putin has committed war crimes No, Putin has not committed war crimes UKR10xMarch22: Do you think so far Vladimir Putin is personally responsible for actions leading to war crimes in Russia's invasion of Ukraine or not? 43 UKR11xMarch22: Do you think so far President Biden and his administration have mainly projected strength or weakness to Russia and other adversaries around the world watching the war in Ukraine?
IMPACT OF THE UKRAINE WAR AT HOME 44
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST VOTERS SAY BIDEN SHOULD RELAX OIL AND GAS DRILLING REGULATIONS IN RESPONSE TO RISING PRICES, PUTTING ASIDE CONCERNS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE; THEY OPPOSE TRYING TO IMPORT CHEAP OIL AND GAS FROM AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES Should President Biden...? Relax oil and gas drilling regulations in the United States in response to rising prices from Russia’s war in Ukraine 66% despite protests from those worried with climate change Try to import cheap oil and gas from authoritarian regimes 34% like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela at any cost but keep his policies on climate change in place 45 US1: Should President Biden...?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY SUPPORT OPENING THE KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE Do you support or oppose the Biden administration opening the Keystone XL pipeline bringing oil from Canada to the United States as a response to raising prices and Russia's war in Ukraine? 77% 23% Support Oppose 46 US2: Do you support or oppose the Biden administration opening the Keystone XL pipeline bringing oil from Canada to the United States as a response to raising prices and Russia's war in Ukraine?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. BOTH BIDEN AND PUTIN GET BLAME FOR RISING OIL AND GAS PRICES To what extent do you blame the policies of To what extent do you blame Vladimir Putin's the Biden administration for the rising oil and war in Ukraine for the rising oil and gas prices gas prices in the United States? in the United States? A lot 39% A lot 40% Somewhat 25% Somewhat 32% Little 17% Little 18% Not at all 18% Not at all 11% US3: To what extent do you blame the policies of the Biden administration for the rising oil and gas prices in the United States? 47 US4: To what extent do you blame Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine for the rising oil and gas prices in the United States?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ON THE NET, BIDEN’S POLICIES GET THE MOST BLAME FOR RISING OIL AND GAS PRICES Who is to blame more for increasing oil and gas prices - the policies of the Biden administration or Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine? 53% 47% Policies of the Biden administration Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine 48 US5: Who is to blame more for increasing oil and gas prices - the policies of the Biden administration or Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. A MAJORITY BELIEVE TRADING AND WORKING WITH ROGUE AND ENEMY REGIMES ONLY HELPS THEM REPRESS THEIR PEOPLE FURTHER Do you think that trading and working with rogue and enemy regimes helps them to become more normal countries with improved human rights or does it just help them repress people further? 58% 42% Helps them to become more normal countries with improved human rights Help them repress people further 49 US6: Do you think that trading and working with rogue and enemy regimes helps them to become more normal countries with improved human rights or does it just help them repress people further?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST OPPOSE NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH IRAN AND CHINA Do you think the US should try to normalize relations with Do you think the US should try to normalize relations with Iran to encourage it to be a better citizen of the world or China to encourage it to be a better citizen of the world or should we try to use sanctions to curb their behavior? should we try to use sanctions to curb their behavior? 61% 54% 46% 39% Normalize relations with Iran Use sanctions Normalize relations with China Use sanctions US7: Do you think the US should try to normalize relations with Iran to encourage it to be a better citizen of the world or should we try to use sanctions to curb their behavior? 50 US8: Do you think the US should try to normalize relations with China to encourage it to be a better citizen of the world or should we try to use sanctions to curb their behavior?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST VOTERS DO NOT WANT TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA Do you think the US should try to normalize relations with Russia to encourage it to be a better citizen of the world or should we try to use sanctions to curb their behavior? 72% 28% Normalize relations with Russia Use sanctions 51 US9: Do you think the US should try to normalize relations with Russia to encourage it to be a better citizen of the world or should we try to use sanctions to curb their behavior?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MOST VOTERS SAY AMERICAN COMPANIES SHOULD STOP DOING BUSINESS IN RUSSIA Do you think American Companies should stop Do you think American Tech Companies should Do you think American Fast-Food Companies doing business with and in Russia or continue stop doing business with and in Russia or should stop doing business with and in Russia business in the country? continue business in the country? or continue business in the country? 77% 79% 78% 23% 21% 22% Stop doing business in Russia Stop doing business in Russia Stop doing business in Russia Continue doing business in Russia Continue doing business in Russia Continue doing business in Russia US10: Do you think American Companies should stop doing business with and in Russia or continue business in the country? US11: Do you think American Tech Companies should stop doing business with and in Russia or continue business in the country? 52 US12: Do you think American Fast-Food Companies should stop doing business with and in Russia or continue business in the country?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS ARE TORN ABOUT THE NET EFFECTS OF TECH COMPANIES WORKING WITH REPRESSIVE REGIMES AND WHETHER OR NOT THESE COMPANIES HAVE BECOME MORE OR LESS SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE IN RECENT YEARS Do you think that American tech companies help society Do you think the tech companies have become in the last by working in repressive countries or only add to the few years more socially responsible, less socially repression by working in them? responsible or about the same? 39% 51% 31% 30% 49% More socially responsible Less socially responsible Help society Add to the repression About the same US13: Do you think that American tech companies help society by working in repressive countries or only add to the repression by working in them? 53 US15: Do you think the tech companies have become in the last few years more socially responsible, less socially responsible or about the same?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT MISINFORMATION THAN THEY ARE ABOUT CENSORSHIP; CLOSE TO HALF HOWEVER SAY THERE IS TOO MUCH CENSORSHIP Do you think there is too much censorship online, too little or about right? 26% 44% 30% Too much censorship Too little About right 54 US17: Do you think there is too much censorship online, too little or about right?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS SAY THE NET EFFECT OF TECH COMPANIES IS TO DIVIDE SOCIETY; VOTERS ARE SPLIT ON THE VALIDITY OF TECH COMPANY CENSORSHIP Do you think that the tech companies and social media Do you think tech companies are primarily censoring are bringing our society together or are dividing us information that deserves to be censored or are they further? primarily censoring online information they disagree with? 67% 51% 49% 33% Bringing our society together Censoring information that deserves to be censored Dividing us further Censoring information they primarily disagree with 55 US16: Do you think that the tech companies and social media are bringing our society together or are dividing us further?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. VOTERS BELIEVE RUSSIA HAS BEEN FUNDING PRO-CLIMATE CHANGE GROUPS AND INFORMATION ONLINE TO MAKE THE WORLD MORE DEPENDENT ON ITS OIL Do you think that Russia has been funding pro-climate change groups and information to make the world more dependent on its oil and gas or has Russia not been doing this? 63% Funding pro-climate change groups to make the world more dependent on its oil and gas Not been doing this 37% 56 US19: Do you think that Russia has been funding pro-climate change groups and information to make the world more dependent on its oil and gas or has Russia not been doing this?
Copyright ©2016 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SOME INFORMATION IS MORE DESERVING OF CENSORSHIP THAN OTHERS For each one, indicate if you think they should be permitted to say that on the web or should be censored and removed. Stay on the web Censored and removed Climate change is happening much more slowly, and we need to focus on energy 70% 30% independence There are only two genders, male and female 66% 34% The Hunter Biden laptop is real and so are all the emails on it 61% 39% Abortion is morally wrong 60% 40% Putin is a war criminal who should be killed 59% 41% Masks don't really help prevent COVID much 53% 47% Donald Trump really won the last presidential election because of fraud 51% 49% The Hunter Biden laptop is fake Russian disinformation 48% 52% I want to kidnap Joe Biden and punch him in the nose 38% 62% The holocaust did not happen and was made up 34% 66% 57 US20: For each one, indicate if you think they should be permitted to say that on the web or should be censored and removed.
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