February 2019 - Greenvale AP
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Overview Do you read foodie magazines, browse food related websites and social media channels? If the answer is yes then it won’t be long before you’ll come across a new trend in food or a prediction to change our eating habits. But how many of these predictions actually manifest themselves into something that becomes part of our everyday repertoire and how many trends pass as a fad? With the help of over 400* UK shoppers, Greenvale explored 2018 food trends alongside changes in grocery shopping and eating habits to find out just what might be next on our plates in 2019. And the aim of the research?... To discover just how potatoes may play a role in these new culinary times and remain “on trend”. As a business we want to ensure that we are able to react and respond to changing times. We want potatoes to succeed for all of our customers whilst delivering the needs of the modern shopper and consumer. Enjoy the read, Greenvale Data source: What’s Cooking Research Panel: December 2018. 2 3
Contents Reflecting on predicted 2018 food & drink trends . . 7 The Rise of Meat Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Sourcing & Ingredients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Drinks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The Rise of Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Potato Trends 2018 Market Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Potato Trends 2018 Market Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Potato trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2018 market dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Changes in… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 The Changing Face of Grocery Shopping . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Online Shopping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Eating Habits Changes over the past 12 months . . . . . . 24 Changing Cooking Habits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 What’s happening with potatoes? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Opinions on the Fresh Potato Market? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Category Predictions for 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 The Year Ahead for Food Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 4 5
Reflecting on predicted 2018 food & drink trends 2018 was predicted to be the year for challenger cuisines, additions to the likes of Indian, Mexican and Chinese dishes that adorn our repertoires on a regular basis. But how many people are now eating Hawaiian, South American or West African dishes? Have predicted new meal cuisines made an impact for you? 100% 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 80% 80% 80% 70% 70% 70% 60% 60% 60% 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% So far 10% 0% 0% 0% none of the cuisines are YES I have purchased/cooked YES I have noticed a rise YES I have purchased/cooked breaking in popularity and noticed a rise in popularity through 100% 100% 100% quickly 90% 90% 90% 80% 80% 80% 70% 70% 70% 60% 60% 60% 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% HAWAIIAN SOUTH WEST YES NO UNSURE AMERICAN AFRICAN I would like to try The cuisines are yet to make an impact on the eating habits of our consumers at a nationwide level. Restaurants offering these dishes are opening and are no doubt on the rise although they are mainly restricted to London and other major cities. Perhaps another year or two before the restaurant dishes are translated onto our plates at home? 6 7
The Rise of Meat Sourcing & Ingredients Alternatives Current estimations state that there So what else were we expected are over 3.5 million vegetarians* in to try in 2018? the UK and according to the latest No Well after the rise of “craft” and research by the Vegan Society, there are “locally sourced” food and drinks estimated to be around 540,000 vegans. (think craft butchery and craft The UK market for meat-free foods was worth beer) butters were expected to £572m in 2017**, up from £539m only two years earlier. make an impact, but did they? But what did our panel of researchers tell us? Craft butters were purchased Are they eating meat alternatives? by only 5% of respondents with a further 10% noticing Yes… 0% 50% 100% a rise in popularity. 17% of Did craft 67% 17% 10% 5% 1% respondents would like to make an 23% have been eating plant based proteins already try craft butters. impact? Uns ur Ye e s- 19% have noticed a rise in popularity of meat free products ha I ve s pu Ye ri ty -I rcha 10% would like to try more meat free alternatives ha sed this ula ve p notic po ed a rise in Iw ould is The range of non meat foods available and media noise around the trend like to try th continues to grow. We wanted to know if some of the less mainstream meat free products were Only of No 3% Hyper-local food, defined as grown, starting to make an respondents processed and consumed within a local have eaten Heme community was expected to rise in impact too. but a further popularity. 5% of our respondents claim to We asked “Have you heard of 12% have participate in this trend whilst a further 11%, heard of it would like to try if products were available. Heme? It is an environmentally From further afield specialist ingredients sustainable were expected to enter the market and meat one in particular the Timut pepper was alternative, Have you predicted to be a hit. It is a ‘spiky and 71% 12% 12% 3% 2% heard of zesty’ pepper originating from Nepal, with that is plant Heme? based and a recommended use of sprinkling over a gin Un Yes used in and tonic, but was it a hit? su For now only 2% of our re burgers. It I ha has the same e respondents have purchased v ea appearance of Ye ten the pepper with a further sI this a beef burger Iw ha 2% seeing the ingredient ou ve h listed on menus in cooked rare.” ld eard of this like bars. Still work to do to try this with that one! *Source: Livekindly.co.uk. **Source: Mintel 8 9
Health Drinks Watch out coffee, speciality As reported by Public Health England (PHE), right now Two of the more popular trends from tea is life expectancy in England is 79.6 years for men and 2018 are drinks trends notably fighting 83.2 for women. The population is increasing and people specialist teas and “booze free” back! are living longer. Society is changing and our health is beverages. changing with it. PHE reports that overall the population is still consuming too much saturated fat, added sugars and salt and 64% of respondents have not enough fruit, vegetables, oily fish and fibre. purchased or noticed specialist teas with more Last year we were told to expect a rise of “Nootropics” defined as “health- mainstream tea brands n popularity conscious brain food” which includes turmeric, salmon, eggs and dandelion diversifying into this area. The Have you greens but have these trends taken off? 11% of respondents growth in popularity is also purchased 31% 28% 17% 16% 7% 1% or noticed purchase or eat this type of food and a notably coming from young specialist further 24% are aware of the term or people who are shunning the teas? Un ise i would like to try. traditional cup of tea [Mintel]. su ar re Iw The study found that fewer rs ed aile ld ou than one in six people aged 16 lik ic et ot ret o try n to 34 drink five or more cups nd in Ye a of standard black tea a day, s-I ed have purchas ed ic helping to contribute to a five per Yes ot - I ha d n ve purchase e cent overall decline in tea sales. av No Ih s- We have also Ye been expecting a rise of gut friendly food. This includes probiotics such as kimchi, miso and kefir and prebiotics such The drinks industry also appears to be winning as onions, garlic and other alliums. with booze free drinks with good awareness levels With the inclusion of onions and and 11% claiming to purchase non alcoholic drinks. garlic falling into this category it is already somewhat mainstream with 41% of Mocktails are surging respondents already has there as alternatives for aware or purchasing. been a rise mainstream soft drinks noticed a popularity 4% 6% 17% 18% 18% 37% of gut rise or and as people look Yes - friendly 47% 22% 11% 10% 8% 2% purchased to reduce alcohol food? non consumption. The number e Expect ur alcoholic I No more health of adults drinking alcohol Un e ha ns e in U drinks? lin ility trends to ve su is at its lowest level on ur s/ ris re p feature in 2019 lab Ye ch es since 2005, according Ye -I ed ase r -I s d and seen in p ic s vai ha w ha ve n ot to a survey released by ve I /a ou purchased and see the Office of National n in press/online ld ity Y es like ar Yes -I to tr Statistics in 2018. The ul ha y p N Iw - I ha d po ve purchase ve o ou purc n future is looking good for ld b hased ei e inte ing a ris this trend. rested in try Yes - I have see n *Source: Livekindly.co.uk. **Source: Mintel 10 11
The Rise of Technology Finally a trend that seems certain to continue to capture the imagination of the UK. 37% of the population have noticed a rise in popularity of technology linked to food preparation and cooking. Technology includes smart fridges that monitor food freshness and devices such as Alexa and Google Home which can be voice activated and used to create shopping lists are becoming more prevalent Summary The research and report captures just a snapshot of the predicted 2018 trends and shows that many are making their way into the lives of today’s shoppers. If they aren’t part of everyday life yet then many are making inroads. *Source: Livekindly.co.uk. **Source: Mintel 12 13
Potato Trends 2018 Market Dynamics Kantar Worldpanel data values the UK fresh potato retail market at £1bn. In the last year this value has decreased by 4% which was due to the level of deflation seen in the market place. The deflation was driven by the number of promotions seen in the first half of the year. As a result of cheaper potatoes, volume increased by 0.5%. In volume terms this added another 5,414 tonnes to the annual sale. The fresh retail potato market represents a staggering 1.3m tonnes which is the largest produce volume category. Potato volume growth for the last year was ahead of produce, vegetables and fruit. Key shopper metrics: 95.7 oes tat % po of he sh t po fre pula tion buy Th fr ar es av as e es era h g u rc e h p y po e shopper sa 1.9 tato e es 26.8 tim kg Th f tr kg a 1. e 9 fr vera ip o s es uy h p ge shopper b ping ota p toes per sho Data source: Kantar Worldpanel 14 15
Potato Trends 2018 Market Dynamics Potato Sub Category Performance Tiering dard 912,680 Stan Throughout grocery private Maincrop label tiers are growing with the Volume has fallen with premium market being up 9% less promotions in the and economy tier being up 5%. 4.1% market in the 2nd half of the Produce sees very similar trends YoY year due to supply. with economy and premium Trip volume has increased adding outperforming standard. With Potatoes premium tier has Percentage £1.4m to the sub category. Potato 1.3% experienced the best volume 69% 18% 7% 6% Total market value £493m and spend gains, with new Volume YoY Sales by shopper’s opting to purchase Tier Total market volume 812k tonnes Pr premium potatoes. Economy Br em has also seen good volume iu an ed m 85,1 d and shopper growth with high 85 43 deflation. Standard tiers have ,76 Baking 5 experienced a volume decline. Baking is driving category volume Eco Branded has experienced a small nomy 240,317 growth through new shoppers and 4.1% volume increase with an increase in an increase in trip volume. YoY purchase frequency but with shopper Total market value £238m losses. Total market volume 288k tonnes Organics 6% YoY The total organic potato market has increased in volume by 7% to 10,806 tonnes and up in value by 7.2% to £12.4m in the last year. Prices have remained steady with just a small increase by 0.2% to £1.15/kg. There has been an increase in Organic shoppers with an uplift of New 11.7% in shopper penetration in the last year. Most of the category growth has come from Asda, Aldi and Volume has grown slightly with Waitrose. With Waitrose featuring promotions to new shoppers and an increase in 2.1% increase shoppers and purchase frequency. trip volume. The lovely hot summer YoY Whereas Asda and Aldi have increased helped drive sub category sales. sales from a low base and expanded Total market value £279m their ranging whilst attracting new shoppers. Total market volume 224k tonnes 0.6% YoY Data source: Kantar Worldpanel 16 17
Potato trends 2018 market dynamics Channels Promotions The Discounters continue to win in a climate of inflation. Number of potato promotions Shoppers are still visiting multiple retailers on the same day. 0% 50% 100% 19% of the time we visit a Big 4, we will visit a Discounter on the same day. With potatoes there’s no surprise that 2018 201 82 171 Discounters increased volume the most in the last year. It may surprise you that Discounter deflation wasn’t too far behind the total 2017 245 108 211 market. Most of the growth has been from new store openings and an increase in shoppers. Online volume purchases increased too, aided by a growth in purchase frequency. Supermarkets managed to hold their own 2016 229 103 219 with no change in overall year on year volumes. Most of the volume decline has come from the Convenience channel. Maincrop Baking New Percentage volume growth by channel -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% There were a higher number of fresh potato promotions in the retail Supermarket market in 2017 vs 2018, the first half of 2018 featured the same amount of -0.1% promotions as the first 6 months in 2017. With supply easing this affected Online the number of promotions seen in the market place for the latter half of +2.5% 2018. The most common promotions used are ‘save amount’ or ‘save %’ Discounter and represented 55% of promotions last year. This increased by 2% points from 2017. +4.9% Convenience The number of premium tier and organic promotions increased last year as -7.9% you can see from this table: Number of potato promotions Retailer Performance 0% 50% 100% Tesco still holds the largest value highest value share gains in the 2018 137 135 and volume market share with last year. With an improved volume potatoes. In the last year Aldi has performance in the second half of experienced the highest volume this year they have increased their 2017 133 70 share gains. They have experienced shoppers, trip volume and purchase good shopper growth and have also frequency. Most of their growth 2016 121 78 grown purchase frequency. Volume has been from Maincrop and New growth has been across all 3 sub potatoes. categories. Asda experienced the Premium Organic volume share of fresh potatoes 30 30 Volume-Actual Volume-Actual Retailer % of Retailer % of 25.6 % 5.6% 2 31 De3c18 Dec8 201 201 26.6 % 6.6% 2 Dec Dec 2017 2017 % 4.3% 14.3 1 12.9 % 2.9% 1 12.9 % 2.9% 13.9 % 13.9 % % % 1 11.7% 11.7% 13.7 13.7 12.1% 12.1% 3.3% 3.3% % % 4.3% 4.3% 1.7% 1.7% 10.7 10.7 6.1% 6.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 3.3% 3.3% 6.3% 6.3% 1.7% 1.7% 4.5% 4.5% Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total THE THE Total Total Total Total Total Total TESCO TESCO ASDAASDA SAINSBURY’S SAINSBURY’S MORRISONS MORRISONS CO-OPERATIVE CO-OPERATIVE ICELAND ICELAND WAITROSE WAITROSE ALDI ALDI LIDL LIDL MARKS MARKS & SPENCER & SPENCER Data source: Kantar Worldpanel Data source: Brandview 18 19
Changes in… The Changing Face of Grocery Shopping Whilst it is important to understand how UK shoppers are reacting and being influenced by food and drink trends it is also important to understand how shopping habits have changed too. We started by investigating how people are currently shopping. 35% of respondents do a big shop once per week and a further 17% a big shop every couple of weeks. Approximately 1/3rd of people top up shop during the week. I bu yg ro ce ries every day o How often I do a regul 7% 10% 17% 31% 35% do you I top up shop? I do s rf ab ay rt ar b sho fd o he ig Id next ouple o p d kly ig in g c sh o pp on we op o u ab line h grocery s rin s ou e th g t o ho e w nce every 2 week s p ee k We wanted to understand how these shopping habits have changed over the past 12 months. For the majority of shoppers habits have remained the same however there is a move to more frequent top up and online shopping. There is a double digit decline for the big weekly shop. I do this more I do this about I don’t I have frequently the same do this stopped than 12 amount as 12 doing months ago months ago this I do a regular big weekly shop 7% 61% 21% 11% I do a big shop about once every 2 weeks 7% 31% 56% 6% I do a big shop roughly once a month 4% 22% 66% 8% I top up shop during the week 24% 64% 10% 2% I buy groceries every day or for the next couple of days 10% 28% 56% 6% I do more online grocery shopping than a year ago 12% 31% 49% 8% 20 21
Online Shopping We wanted to find out which stores were more or less Whilst many respondents are happy to shop around and look for popular with shoppers versus 12 months ago and asked bargains, we’ve also reported the rise of online grocery shopping. our respondents to tell us where they had been visiting. In line with Kantar data showing discounters gaining market Shopping for groceries online share, shoppers themselves also see that they are visiting stores Probably no surprises that Tesco has come out on top but despite in this sector more frequently too. 14% of respondents stated that only being able to deliver to some London and South East they were visiting Tesco more frequently but this was effectively postcodes, Amazon Fresh is already making its presence felt in cancelled out by 15% that felt they were shopping less at the store. the online grocery world. I visit more I visit less I visit about I rarely visit I don’t visit Where have you shopped online for the same as amount as 12 groceries in the past 12 months? months ago 0 50 100 150 200 Aldi 19% 6% 31% 17% 27% Tesco Lidl 15% 9% 32% 16% 28% Tesco 14% 15% 49% 13% 8% Sainsbury’s Sainsbuy’s 13% 12% 41% 21% 13% Asda Co-Op 10% 10% 32% 23% 25% Asda 10% 15% 38% 16% 21% Iceland Morrison’s 10% 10% 35% 22% 23% Morrisons Amazon M&S 8% 10% 36% 23% 22% Fresh one Waitrose 6% 7% 24% 13% 49% Ocado for the others to watch Amazon Fresh closely No surprises why the changes are taking place, shoppers are savvy and looking for the best in terms of offers and prices. Waitrose 22 23
Eating Habits Changes Changing Cooking Habits over the past 12 months As a nation we are increasingly Consumer cooking trends have evolved, with convenience becoming of being made aware that we should be greater importance. According to IGD, time spent preparing evening meals striving for a healthier diet. But are the has decreased from 60 minutes in 1980 to 30 minutes in 2016. Consumers messages getting through? Well yes. are leaning towards quick and easy, pre-prepared ingredients and meals In the past 12 months our respondents requiring less preparation time. Information from our own research told us: have particularly focussed on reducing their intakes of sugar, fat, carbohydrate Time spent preparing and cooking and processed foods. the main meal of the day 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 35% 45% Spend up to 50% Strongly Agree Neither Disagree Strongly Less than 10 mins Agree Agree nor Disagree 35 minutes Disagree cooking the 10 - 20 mins main meal of the day I eat less meat 9% 19% 25% 27% 21% 20 - 30 mins I have become Vegetarian 3% 3% 13% 26% 55% A further 35% I have become Vegan 2% 3% 11% 24% 61% 30 - 40 mins I am a Pescatarian 3% 4% 15% 23% 55% Dedicate 40 - 50 mins 30-40 minutes I don’t consume dairy 2% 3% 12% 26% 57% of cooking & The final 35% preparation I don’t eat gluten 5% 4% 12% 25% 54% time 50 - 60 mins I have reduced my sugar intake 14% 28% 24% 14% 20% Spending more than more than 1 hour I have reduced my fat intake 8% 25% 25% 21% 20% 40 minutes I have reduced my 7% 17% 28% 22% 26% carbohydrate intake 77% 38% of respondents are cooking multiple main I am eating less meals to accommodate, children, school 13% 27% 28% 16% 17% processed food Of respondents commitments and work commitments. Other please specify 3% 5% 56% 11% 26% enjoy cooking or enjoy When it comes to that helping hand in cooking the kitchen convenience products can be immensely appealing to our consumers. At least once per week 27% Spend more 60% use prepared vegetables time cooking 72% use a prepared carbohydrate at the weekends 65% use a chilled or frozen potato product 24 25
What’s happening with potatoes? We asked our respondents about their fresh potato And frozen potato consumption? eating habits over the past 12 months and whether they There have been some reported gains in consumption of frozen potatoes but these are thought their consumption had changed. outweighed by the declines and a high number of respondents that don’t eat frozen Approximately 2/3rd growth over a 52 week period for potato products. of respondents are the baking potato sector*. Whilst eating “about” the same respondents report some growth in Frozen Potatoes I’ve been I’ve been I’ve I don’t eating more eating eaten eat this amount of potatoes as they frequency of consumption across about the less were a year ago with double digit all formats, overall consumption same growth being suggested for baking declines have outweighed the gains. Baked 3% 26% 6% 66% potato consumption. This figure Much more work is still to be done is consistent with Kantar market in promoting fresh potatoes. Mashed 2% 20% 6% 72% data that is showing 6.0% volume Chips 5% 54% 18% 23% Fresh Potatoes I’ve been I’ve been I’ve I don’t eating more eating eaten eat this Wedges 3% 36% 15% 47% about the less same Roasts 4% 33% 12% 51% Baked 10% 69% 15% 6% Mashed 7% 67% 17% 9% Chips 5% 54% 24% 17% Wedges 3% 46% 21% 29% The Roasts 9% 66% 17% 8% Overall winner... Boiled or Steamed 9% 69% 12% 10% It has got to be Have there been major gains in the chilled prepared fresh baked potato sector? potatoes Well the answer is no. Respondents are eating a small amount more of chilled prepared potatoes but the majority don’t buy into this sector at all. Chilled Prepared Potatoes I’ve been I’ve been I’ve I don’t eating more eating eaten eat this about the less same Baked 1% 25% 8% 66% Mashed 2% 22% 10% 66% Chips 2% 26% 10% 62% Wedges 2% 22% 9% 67% Roasts 2% 21% 8% 69% Boiled or Steamed 2% 21% 8% 69% Data source: Kantar data 52 weeks ending 30.12.18 26
Opinions on the Fresh Category Predictions Potato Market? for 2019 And in the next 12 months do The Shopper respondents have an opinion on Shopper confidence appears to be holding up developments that they would like despite Brexit uncertainty. Our panel voted to see in the fresh potato sector? confidently by 74% that they haven’t cut back on their household spend in recent months. Shoppers do however expect food prices to increase with 64% showing concern over this. There will be an increased focus on price ahead of quality. With less use of 71% promotional tactics there will be a need to create a personalised and differentiated proposition to Potatoes engage diverse shopper missions. packed in paper bags 59% More loose Potatoes and Retailers Due to supply, volume sales will be under pressure potatoes so there will be a small reduction in volume which will be from maincrop. With new potatoes we are hoping for another warm summer to match sales seen in 2018. With baking potatoes we are currently 48% New recipes seeing strong volume growth which will start to ease but sales will remain in growth by the end of the year. Overall the volume prediction will be for a small 32% and ideas reduction in volume not more than 1% with inflation so this will drive value up by 1% to 2%. Mixed packs of fresh potatoes With consumers being more mindful of the e.g. baking, environment and ethically aware there will be main crop further growth from organics of 5%. Premium & baby sales growth will continue, as it presents a great opportunity to drive incremental sales and trade consumers up. Our prediction is for 3% volume growth for this year. Discounters will continue to increase their market share through new 40% store openings. The convenience 37% and online channels offer a great Quick cook opportunity to expand ranges to formats Healthy recipe meet the changing needs of time kits featuring poor shoppers. Supermarkets potatoes will continue to fight for volume growth and may experience a slight volume decrease of 0.5%. Data source: IGD and Kantar Worldpanel 28 29
The Year Ahead for Food Trends As we move from 2018 to 2019, what are we being told to expect on our plates this year and do our shoppers like the sound of the next craze? Indulgent ice-creams took the top spot from 15 predicted trends but potatoes featured joint 2nd and 4th. Here’s to a successful 2019 for fresh potatoes. I will I might try I probably I definitely I’m not definitely won’t try won’t try that try interested 1st Indulgent Ice-cream desserts 24% 40% 10% 12% 14% West African food 15% 35% 12% 23% 15% 2nd Hassleback potatoes 19% 39% 20% 8% 20% Bitter Flavours 6% 21% 26% 30% 17% Charred food 10% 26% 16% 29% 20% 4th Loaded potato wedges 13% 38% 14% 21% 14% Gold leaf desserts 7% 21% 14% 36% 23% Clear foods and gels 5% 18% 18% 32% 27% Chips and dipping sauces 13% 35% 12% 26% 14% Caviar 7% 13% 14% 50% 15% 2nd New mushroom varieties 22% 36% 6% 23% 13% Octopus 11% 15% 10% 51% 13% Seaweed 15% 31% 9% 30% 15% Edible cocktails 8% 25% 11% 37% 20% Peruvian food 13% 34% 7% 30% 16% 30 31
BE INSPIRED watch our new potato inspiration video for 2019. Find out more by visiting: greenvaleap @greenvaleap greenvaleap-ap www.greenvale.co.uk tracey.mattock@greenvale.co.uk
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