SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk

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SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
SAMSUNG Electronics
     A contrarian’s perspective on a top 10 global
     brand with above average growth potential
             and a wide margin of safety.

By: Michael Wood                        www.evansic.com
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Contest Qualification

                   Source: Samsung Investor Day Presentation 2013
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
How to buy Samsung Electronics

 1. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS Equity)
 Price: KRW 1,367,000         Prices as of 06/13/14
 Shares: 150,777,000
 FX rate: 0.0009 USD/KRW
 Market Cap USD: $185 Billion

 2. Samsung Electronics GDR (SMSN LI Equity)
 Price: USD 672.50             Prices as of 06/13/14
 Equiv. GDRs: 276,431,000
 Market Cap: USD 185.9 Billion
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Disclosure

• All values from here on out are reported in USD
• All prices and market caps are as of 06/13/14
• This report contains forward-looking numbers
  that could differ from actual results
• Samsung Electronics is not a suitable investment
  for all investors and individual circumstances
  should be taken into consideration
• This report is intended to provide the investor
  with research relating to Samsung Electronics and
  is not a solicitation to buy the stock
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Proven Investment Process

  Cheap price
  Management: honest & skillful capital
   allocators
  Dominant and strengthening competitive
   advantage (low-cost & high-quality
   manufacturing)
  Globally recognized brand that is well taken care
   of (broad and strong associations)
  Excellent balance sheet protection
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Samsung Quick Stats

• Market Cap                   = $ US 186 Billion
• Non-operating assets (net)   = $ US 60.4 Billion
• Enterprise Value             = $ US 125.6 Billion

• Q1-2014 Book value           = $ US 145.5 Billion
• 2014E Net Income             = $ US 24.0 Billion
• 2014E Free-cash-flow         = $ US 24.0 Billion

  EV/FCF2014 = 5.2x            (prices as of 06/13/14)
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Thesis
1. Samsung’s businesses are not well understood, as the
   market is assuming Samsung is only a smartphone company
2. Samsung Semiconductor is worth the enterprise value itself
   (the market price implicitly assumes mobile is worth -$33B)
3. Samsung trades at more than a 50% discount to peers and
   intrinsic value
4. Samsung is manufacturing 13 products with global #1
   market share that have very defensible market positions
5. Several catalysts are in motion to unlock the trapped value,
   including IPOing non-core businesses, corporate
   restructuring and massive share buybacks ($60B net cash)
6. Management has an astounding track record of successfully
   creating shareholder value
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Dispelling the Myths
 1. Success of Samsung hinges on the success of the
    Galaxy S franchise
 2. There is no growth left in the smartphone
    industry (the market is fully saturated)
 3. Lenovo will drive Samsung’s mobile operating
    margins to 3% (while Apple will continue to
    operate in a vacuum)
 4. Samsung is a copy-cat and is only successful
    because they infringe on others’ patents
 5. Samsung is not shareholder friendly and will
    never return capital to shareholders
This presentation seeks to rectify the myths that cloud
the investor’s mindset on Samsung Electronics
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Myth 1 Debunked: Sales by Product (2013)

 • Apple’s Portfolio:                 • Samsung’s Portfolio:
                                      •   DRAM                         5%
 •   iPhone               53%         •   NAND                         4%
 •   iPad                 19%         •   Logic Chipset                5%
 •   Mac                  13%         •   Mobile Display               5%
 •   iPod                 3%          •   Large Panel Display          6%
                                      •   Tablets                      4%
 •   iTunes               9%          •   Low-end Smartphones         14%
 •   Accessories          3%          •   Premium Smartphones         28%
                                      •   Feature phones               3%
                                      •   Networking Equipment         2%
                                      •   Laptop/PC                    4%
                                      •   TV/Screen                   13%
                                      •   Home Appliances              6%

Samsung has a diverse product offering that can withstand the failure of
any single product. Even if iPhone wipes out Galaxy S, Apple will still need
to buy Samsung’s DRAM and NAND memory chips (in larger quantities).
SAMSUNG Electronics A contrarian's perspective on a top 10 global brand with above average growth potential and a wide margin of safety - ValueWalk
Cheap Price: Samsung SOTP Value

1.   Non-core Assets (net) are worth   $US 60.4 Billion
2.   Samsung Semiconductor is worth    $US 125 Billion
3.   Samsung Display is worth          $US 29.7 Billion
4.   Samsung Home Appliance is worth   $ US 11.2 Billion
5.   Samsung IT & Mobile is worth      $ US 208 Billion

Total Equity Value                     $ US 433B
Upside to current price:               134%
1. Non-core Assets (net) – $60.4B

•   Cash and Cash Equivalents:     $17.0 billion
•   ST Financial Instruments:      $38.6 billion
•   ST Available-for-sale FA:      $1.9 billion
•   LT Available-for-sale FA: a    $7.3 billion
•   Investment in Associates: b    $6.1 billion
•   ST Borrowings:                 -$6.8 billion
•   Debentures:                    -$1.2 billion
•   LT Borrowings:                 -$2.5 billion

Non-Operating Assets (Net)        $US 60.4 billion
                                   As of Q1 2014
1. a. LT Assets Available for Sale
     (In millions of US Dollar)                                           Mar-14                              Dec-13
     Equity securities - Listed                                         $ 3,680 **                      $      3,959
     Equity securities - Non-Listed                                        3,088                                 704
     Debt Securities                                                         558                                 951
     Total                                                              $ 7,326                         $      5,615

      ** Listed Equity Securities:
                                              Number of S hares   Percentage of       Acquisition           Book Value
       All values in millions of US Dollars
                                                        Owned      Ownership                Cost            March 2014

       Samsung Heavy Industries                     40,675,641       17.6%        $          195    $           1,166
       Samsung Fine Chemicals                        2,164,970        8.4%                     41                  87
       Hotel Shilla                                  2,004,717        5.1%                     13                 120
       Cheil Worldwide                               2,998,725        2.6%                    2.6                  74
       iMarket Korea                                   647,320        1.8%                    0.3                  15
       SFA                                           1,822,000       10.2%                     34                  67
       Wonik IPS                                     7,220,216        9.0%                     57                  56
       ASML                                         12,595,575        2.8%                   653                1,123
       CSR                                                 -          0.0%                      -                  99
       Rambus                                        4,788,125        4.3%                     83                  43
       Seagate Technology                           12,539,490        3.8%                   197                  669
       Wacom                                         8,398,400        5.0%                     56                  56
       Sharp                                        35,804,000        3.0%                   110                  108
       Other                                               -                                   42                  49
       Total                                                                      $        1,484    $           3,680
1. b. Investment in Associates

 • Samsung SDS to be spun-off in Q4-2014

   All values in millions of US Dollars
                                                                     Book Value        Net Asset
   Investee                                   Acquisition Cost
                                                                     March 2014         Value

   Samsung Card                           $          1,384.69    $         2,092   $        2,077
   Samsung Electro-Mechanics                           323.82                841              840
   Samsung SDI                                         309.02              1,067            1,316
   Samsung SDS                                         136.54                803              783
   Samsung Techwin                                     144.26                363              395
   Samsung Corning Advanced Glass                      193.41                186              186
   Other                                                                     766              766

   Total                                                         $        6,117    $       6,362
2. Samsung Semiconductor

• Samsung Semiconductors is worth 9.5x 2015 operating profit
• This equates to a value of $US 125 Billion
• Consistent with Micron (@7.8x 2015 OP) and SanDisk (@ 10x
  2015 OP)
• Samsung Semiconductors is worth the enterprise value of
  the entire company by itself!!!!
                                                      All values are in $US Billion
  Samsung Semiconductor   2009   2010   2011   2012        2013     2014E      2015E
  Total Revenue           21.4   32.0   33.3   30.7        33.5       41.6      44.9
  DRAM                     7.5   14.8   12.1   10.6        12.3       16.3      17.5
  NAND                     5.2    6.7    8.1    7.4          9.1      11.1      12.4
  System LSI               3.5    5.9    9.9   11.7        11.4       13.5      14.2
  Operating Profit         1.7    8.6    5.8    3.7          6.4      11.4      13.0
  Operating Margin         8%    27%    17%    12%          19%       27%        29%

                                                  Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, AllianceBernstein
2. a. Samsung Memory
•   #1 global market share in overall memory
•   #1 global market share in Mobile DRAM (49%)
•   #1 global market share in PC DRAM        (33%)
•   #1 global market share in NAND           (32%)

                                  Source: DRAMeXchange
2. Samsung Semiconductor – Peers
• Samsung trades at half the valuation of sector
• Samsung Semiconductor will earn $11.4 billion operating
  profit in 2014, on par with Intel and Qualcomm
• Samsung Semiconductor by itself deserves $125 billion
  valuation, on par with Intel and Qualcomm’s enterprise values
All values are in millions of US Dollars

Semiconductor                    Market Cap   Enterprise    Gross         P/E ex. net cash            P/B       5-Year
                                                Value      Revenue    2014      2015      2016      Q1 2014      ROE

Intel                             $148,500    $136,577     $53,100    14.8     14.2        12.2        2.6      20.7%
Qualcomm                          $134,170    $102,117     $27,470    14.6     13.5        10.1        3.5      16.4%
Micron Tech.                       $33,360    $26,992      $16,300     9.6      8.8         8.5        3.3      12.7%
SK Hynix                           $32,085    $34,168      $13,238     7.7      6.4         6.8        2.8      10.8%
SanDisk                            $22,280    $19,560      $6,660     15.3     14.7        13.0        3.4      13.4%

Sector Average                                                        12.4     11.5        10.1        3.1       15%

Samsung Electronics               $185,531    $125,110     $232,715   5.2       4.9        4.7         1.4      20.1%

                                                                                      Source: Bloomberg, Company filings
DRAM Recovery leaves SMSN behind
• Consolidation in the DRAM space to 3 competitors has caused
  DRAM prices to soar and margins to expand
• Since 2013, Micron is up 410%, SK Hynix +83% and Samsung -10%
Semiconductor Industry by Revenue

• Does a company that is consistently taking share in the
  semiconductor industry deserve a 50%+ discount to its peers?

                                                Source: Gartner
3. Samsung Display

• Samsung Display is worth at least 9x 2014 op.
  profit, given that their main competitor LG
  Display trades at 13.7x 2014 operating profit
• Samsung Display is worth $29.7 billion
                                                     All values are in $US Billion
 Samsung Display        2009   2010   2011    2012        2013     2014E      2015E
 Total Revenue          20.7   25.4   26.3    29.0        27.8       29.5      31.1
 Large Panel             9.8   21.6   20.4    19.5        14.7       13.6      14.3
 Small & Medium Panel      -    2.3    2.4     2.3          0.6       0.5        0.5
 AMOLED (aka OLED)         -    1.5    3.4     7.2        12.6       15.3      16.3
 Operating Profit        1.4    1.7   (0.3)    2.8          2.9       3.3        3.6
 Operating Margin        7%     7%     -1%    10%          10%       11%        12%
                                                 Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, AllianceBernstein
3. Samsung Display – #1 Position
• Samsung is the dominant player in display with 99% market
  share in AMOLED
• Samsung has already announced Super AMOLED, securing a
  two-stage technology lead on peers
• Despite the technological edge, Samsung trades at a steep
  discount to its most comparable peer LG Display
3. Samsung Display – Peers

• Samsung Display trades at a 50% discount to
  its inferior South Korean competitor LG
  Display
• Samsung Display deserves a premium to LG
  Display (7% assumed)
• This is the basis of the $29.7 Billion valuation
  All values are in millions of US Dollars

  Display                          Market Cap   Enterprise    Gross         P/E ex. net cash           P/B      5-Year
                                                  Value      Revenue    2014      2015      2016     Q1 2014     ROE

  LG Display                         $9,591      $12,712     $27,370    16.1      10.2       9.1        1.0         8.6%

  Samsung Electronics               $185,531    $125,110     $232,715   5.2       4.9        4.7        1.4         20.1%

                                                                               Source: Bloomberg, Company filings
4. Samsung Home Appliance
  • Samsung Home Appliance is worth 7x 2013
    operating profit
  • Whirlpool trades at 7.8x 2014 operating profit
  • This is the basis of the $11.2 Billion valuation
                                                            All values are in $US Billion
Samsung Home Appliance          2009   2010   2011   2012        2013     2014E      2015E
Total Revenue                   41.0   48.7   42.3   45.0        45.0       52.7      53.4
Visual Display (TV, Monitors)   26.3   28.9   31.3   30.8        29.0       34.0      33.9
Appliance                        7.7   10.0   11.0   11.8        13.7       16.1      17.0
Other                            7.0    9.8      -    2.3         2.3        2.6        2.6
Operating Profit                 2.5    0.4    1.1    2.1         1.3        1.6        1.6
Operating Margin                 6%     1%     3%     5%           3%        3%         3%

                                                            Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, AllianceBernstein
4. Samsung Home Appliance
• Samsung has been the fastest growing company in
  the Home Appliance arena
• Samsung is strategically well positioned to take
  advantage of the smart-home revolution and the
  convergence between technology and home
  appliances
4. Samsung Home Appliance
• Samsung has been making refrigerators since the 1960’s
• Consistently ranked the highest performance product by
  Consumer Reports
• Continues to innovate in the space (Partnership with
  SodaStream brings carbonated water to the fridge)
4. Samsung Home Appliance

• Samsung is expecting 5.1% CAGR out to 2017
4. Samsung Home Appliance – TV
• Samsung has had the best selling TVs for the last 8 years
• Samsung has the #1 brand awareness globally for TVs
4. Samsung Home Appliance – Peers
• $11.2 Billion valuation for Samsung Home Appliance
  is a discount to Whirlpool’s valuation
• Samsung ought to have a premium valuation due to
  the disruptive/innovative products and the outsized
  growth
All values are in millions of US Dollars

Home Appliance                   Market Cap   Enterprise    Gross         P/E ex. net cash         P/B     5-Year
                                                Value      Revenue    2014      2015      2016   Q1 2014    ROE

Whirlpool                          $10,680    $12,280       $19,410   10.9      9.5      10.1      2.3     13.9%
General Electric                  $270,050    $434,451     $149,580   16.0     15.8      14.9      2.0     10.4%

Sector Average                                                        13.4     12.7      12.5      2.2      12%

Samsung Electronics               $185,531    $125,110     $232,715   5.2       4.9       4.7      1.4     20.1%
Samsung valuation so far…

Non-core Assets                = $60.4 billion

Samsung Semiconductor          = $117 billion

Samsung Display                = $ 29.7 Billion

Samsung Home Appliance         = $11.2 Billion
Net Asset Value                = $ 218.3 Billion
Market Cap                     = $ 185 Billion
Implied value Samsung Mobile   = -$ 33.3 Billion
5. Samsung IT & Mobile

• Is the world’s largest manufacturer of cell phones
  really worth -$33 Billion?
• Are the risks so high that a business generating
  $25 Billion operating profit is worth less than
  nothing!?
• Contrarian View: The fear of a mobile implosion
  has created a wide margin of safety for the
  contrarian investor, not to mention a potentially
  lucrative investment opportunity!
5. Samsung IT & Mobile

• Consensus view:
  – Samsung Mobile generates all of their profit from
    Galaxy S franchise
  – Lenovo will drive Samsung’s operating margins to
    3%
  – Apple will be unaffected by this inevitable industry
    paradigm shift
  – Growth in smartphones has stagnated and will
    likely remain so for the foreseeable future
5. IT & Mobile – What is in the group?

 • Samsung IT & Mobile is comprised of:
      –   Premium smartphones
      –   Low-end smartphones
      –   Feature phones
      –   Tablets
      –   Premium PCs and laptops
      –   Networking equipment
                                                         All values are in $US Billion
Samsung IT & Mobile       2009      2010   2011   2012        2013     2014E      2015E
Total Revenue             30.1      35.0   60.7   93.1       125.2     143.2      149.7
Mobile/Tablet             27.8      32.4   48.1   81.8       112.7     127.5      132.3
PC/Laptop                    -         -   10.7    7.7          8.1      10.1      11.4
Networking Equipment       2.3       2.6    1.9    3.7          4.3       5.6        6.0
Operating Profit           3.3       3.7    7.3   17.1        22.5       25.8      26.0
Operating Margin          11%       10%    12%    18%          18%       18%        17%
                                                         Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, AllianceBernstein
5. Samsung Smartphone Strategy

• Bifurcated strategy: Focused on the (1) high-
  end and (2) low-end
• Success in the low-end will continue to drive
  manufacturing costs lower and bargaining
  power with suppliers higher
• Success in the high end will be predicated on
  high quality products and a strong brand
  image
5. Samsung Premium Smartphones
• Two dominant premium smartphone franchises:
  (1) Galaxy Note (2) Galaxy S
• With the Galaxy Note, Samsung pioneered the
  ‘Phablet’ space
5. Samsung Galaxy S5 Selling Well
• Launched in Q2-2014
• Sold 10 million units 10% faster than Samsung Galaxy S4
• This successful launch should help dampen the consensus
  view that the smartphone business is about to implode
5. Samsung Low-end Smartphones
 • Samsung offers a broad array of low-end phones that
   each focus on one different main performance
   feature
 • First phone released with Tizen OS – Samsung Z

      Samsung Z        Samsung Galaxy Ace 3     Samsung Galaxy Star

Samsung Galaxy Young   Samsung Galaxy Active   Samsung Galaxy Grand
Myth 2 Debunked: Smartphone Growth
• Growth in smartphone units – Ericsson
• 16.5% unit growth CAGR over 5 years
• Pricing would have to fall by 16.5% annually for the
  next 5 years for sales and earnings to remain flat
5. Global Smartphone Market Share
• Samsung is the dominant supplier of smartphones,
  with 31.2% market share as of Q1-2014
5. Global Cell Phone Market Share
 When one includes premium smartphones, low-end smart
 phones and feature phones, Samsung still stands out as the
 dominant supplier for mobile devices to the world:
5. Samsung Tablets
• Samsung has a solid line up of premium tablets
• Samsung recently announced the launch of new
  tablets with 2K resolution (best on market)
5. Samsung Tablets Taking Share from Apple
 • According to IDC Samsung took 5% market share directly from
   Apple in 2013
 • Samsung now has 22.3% market share in tablets
 • Samsung is the only tablet to gain an real traction against
   Apple
5. IT & Mobile – What’s it worth?
 • Apple’s enterprise value trades at 8.9x 2014
   operating profit
 • Samsung’s IT & Mobile business is worth at least 8x
   2014 (10% discount to Apple)
 • Therefore, Samsung IT & Mobile is worth $208B
All values are in millions of US Dollars

IT & Mobile                     Market Cap   Net Cash   Enterprise    Gross         P/E ex. net cash         P/B     5-Year
                                              (debt)      Value      Revenue    2014      2015      2016   Q1 2014    ROE

Apple                             $550,930   $133,627   $417,303     $181,382   10.6     10.2      10.0      4.6     27.6%
Google                            $371,340   $53,472    $317,868      $52,280   17.3     14.5      12.3      4.3     18.5%
Lenovo                            $13,271     -$1,500   $14,771       $33,873   16.9     15.2      10.8      4.7     20.3%
Microsoft                         $339,710   $81,100    $258,610      $88,380   11.3     10.5       9.9      4.0     36.3%

IT & Mobile Average                                                             14.0     12.6      10.7      4.4      26%

Samsung Electronics               $185,531   $60,721    $124,810     $232,715   5.2       4.8       4.7      1.4     20.1%
Myth 3 Debunked: Lenovo drives margins to 3%
 • If the consensus is correct and Lenovo is successful in
   driving down Samsung’s operating margins to 3%, then
   Samsung will still generate $4.3 billion in operating profit
   for 2014
 • Using a 15x multiple this business is worth $64 billion in a
   worst case scenario (Lenovo trades at 18x operating profit)
 • In this scenario Samsung Electronics’ intrinsic value is $283
   Billion
 • Upside to Samsung Electronics in this scenario is still 52%

  The worst case is more than priced into the stock.
  Samsung provides a margin of safety for the prudent
  investor even in a (highly unlikely) worst case scenario.
Except: Brand Matters to Customers!
•   Samsung’s brand ranked #8th in the world according to Interband’s Top 100 Global
    Brands
•   Samsung has a premium product and scale like just like its peers on this list
•   Samsung’s brand power will help protect against Lenovo’s aggressive pricing
•   This will mitigate the downside scenario that IT & Mobile is only worth $64B
Samsung is a premium brand
•   Samsung pioneered one of the great rebranding efforts of the modern era
•   #1 brand awareness for Smartphones around the world
•   #1 brand awareness for TVs around the world
•   Lenovo is competing against a lower cost operator that is more widely recognized
    in the global market place – they have a tall order ahead of them to try and knock
    down Samsung
Samsung takes good care of their brand
•   Samsung advertises more aggressively than Coca-Cola (the most prolific
    advertiser)
•   Samsung advertises 4 times more than Apple
•   Despite this focus on the customer, the consensus believes that Apple is far more
    immune to competitive pressure on its margins
•   Even if Lenovo or Apple forces Samsung to compete as a low-end player, they will
    not need to advertise as aggressively (mitigating the impact on operating margins)
Samsung takes good care of their people
•   Samsung is able to advertise more aggressively than Apple because of their
    commitment to human capital
•   Samsung employs over 325,000 people, more than 4 times what Apple employs
•   To commemorate the chairman's 25th anniversary, the employees were paid a $2
    billion bonus

                                    Source: Investor Presentation 2013
Myth 4 Debunked: Samsung’s Patent Portfolio is Strong

 • Since their venture into the cell
   phones business in 1992, Samsung
   has amassed a mobile patent
   portfolio that consists of 16,000
   patents
 • Samsung couldn’t possible be a
   copy-cat if they have amassed
   nearly 50,000 patents since 1989
   (second only to IBM)
 • Despite Apple’s patent victories in
   the US, no major victories have
   been awarded off home-turf
 • The most recent patent ruling
   found that Apple also infringed on
   Samsung’s patents
‘Three Stars’ of Samsung

• Samsung was founded by Lee
  Byung-Chul (top), is currently
  chaired by Lee Kun Hee (left), and
  will be succeeded by Lee Jae-Yong
  (right)
• Samsung is a family owned
  business with the current chairman
  controlling 49.7% of voting control
• The Lee family has an impeccable
  record for allocating capital to
  growing sectors of technology
• Each generation has left their
  unique mark on the company
Proven Track Record

                      Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings
Excellent Capital Allocation – Return on Capx

                              Source: Investor Presentation 2013
Management expects more of the same
• While most struggled to keep their heads above
  water in 2009, Samsung set the goal to reach $400
  billion sales by 2020
• So far so good:
Founder: Lee Byung-Chul
• Born: 1910
• Died: 1987 (at age 77)
• Founded Samsung in 1969
• Started as a rice-trading operation
• Transitioned into manufacturing TV
  sets, electric fans and refrigerators
• Extended the business in the 1950s to
  include banking, insurance, real estate
  and tungsten exporting
• Invested in microprocessor
  manufacturing in 1974 by purchasing
  Korean Semiconductor Company out
  of bankruptcy
         Lee Byung-Chul’s philosophy for establishing new businesses:
            “Pounce on them when the market is at rock bottom.”
Ahead of their time: Samsung’s 1980 Sahoon

 The company’s philosophy promotes the idea that
 the individual will grow to be a Samsung man by:

   1. Acquiring the capability and the courage for
      empowerment
   2. Growing an internationally oriented mind
   3. Making use of team spirit and solidarity
   4. Reminding the employee of the sovereignty of his
      existence as the leader, making history for his time
   5. Thinking in terms of effectiveness, not to be
      inhibited by past practices and attitudes
   6. Cultivating the pioneering attitude
Current Chairman: Lee Kun-Hee
•   Age: 72
•   Chairman since: 1987
•   Son of Lee Byung-Chul
•   Most notable accomplishment is the
    64MB DRAM memory chip, transforming
    the formerly bankrupt company into the
    worldwide memory leader
•   Chairman Lee wanted to build a brand,
    not just a product
•   Today, Samsung has 13 products with #1
    global market share all under the
    Samsung brand
•   Diagnosed with lung cancer in 2000
•   Suffered a severe stroke in 2014
Catalyst: Corporate Restructuring
 • The fabric of the circular holding structure is unraveling
 • 2013: Gov’t bans cross holding structures, provides tax break for
   unwinding of circular holding structures
 • 2014: Chairman Lee tragically suffers a severe stroke
 • 2014: Samsung announced IPO of Samsung SDS, Samsung Everland
Catalyst: Gov’t Bans Cross Shareholdings

 • President Park Geun Hye’s government introduced in 2013
   legislation banning family-run chaebol businesses from
   creating new cross shareholdings, which were blamed by the
   Intarnational Monetary fund for contributing to the nation’s
   1997-1999 financial crisis

 • The government is also offering tax breaks to encourage the
   chaebol to unwind existing structures to form more
   transparent holding companies

 Could Jay Lee use this tax break as an opportunity to transfer
 his father’s assets in exchange for a conversion of Samsung
 Electronics into a holding company structure?
Catalyst: New Chairman Jay Y Lee
• Age: 42
• Son of Lee Kun-Hee
• Graduated from Seoul National
  University
• Graduated from Keio University (Japan)
• PhD from Hardvard University
• Fluent in Korean, Japanese and English
• Brokered the licensing deal with Android
  that enabled Samsung’s Mobile division
  to grow from $35 billion to $135 billion
  in 5 years
• Main point of contact for key suppliers
  and partners (Google, Apple, Sony, HP)
Catalyst: Samsung SDS IPO

• Announced May 8, 2014
• Expected to IPO in Q4 2014
• Established in 1985 as a data system and
  technology consulting company
• Provides IT and Networking consulting,
  customized application integration, IT
  infrastructure outsourcing
Catalyst: Samsung Everland IPO

• Announced on May 15, 2014
• Expected to happen Q1-2015
• Everland is a holding company with influential ownership in
  Samsung Life (the largest shareholder of Samsung Electronics)
• This IPO marks the
  unraveling of Samsung’s
  circular holding structure
• Proceeds are expected
  to cover estate taxes
  for Jay Lee and family
Myth 5 Debunked: History of Share Buybacks

 • Preserving capital became the priority in 2008
   as the Lee family planned for succession.

                                    Lee Kun Hee began
                                    succession planning
                                    for Jay Lee

                                        Lee Kun Hee suffers
                                        severe stroke
Catalyst: Inevitable Share Buyback

 • Chairman Lee Kun-Hee currently has 49.7%
   voting control of Samsung Electronics
 • Presumed tax bill is $US 6 billion
 • IPO of SDS and Everland are expected to yield
   $3 billion for the family
 • Jay Lee will need to repurchase up to $US 20
   billion worth of shares within Samsung
   Electronics to retain his father’s current voting
   control
Management recognizes valuation disparity

                             Source: Investor Presentation 2013
Samsung is firing on all cylinders

                          Source: Investor Presentation 2013
Conclusion
• Samsung Semiconductor is worth enterprise value
• Market is ascribing no value to IT & Mobile, Display and
  Home Appliances
• #8 Global Brand Value in the world
• #1 Brand awareness in Smartphones and TVs
• 13 Products with #1 market share
• Improving corporate governance
• Realigned interests with Lee family
• Massive share buybacks on the horizon
• Limited downside given $60.4 billion Non-core Assets
Valuation Extremes…

14’ Rev: $232B            14’ Rev: $11.9B

14’ FCF: $24B             14’ FCF: $3.1B

EV: $129B                 EV: $159B
Samsung’s enterprise value is $30 billion
cheaper than Facebook yet 8x more profitable!!
What’s in your portfolio?

By: Michael Wood      www.evansic.com
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