Evidence Report 6: East Dunbartonshire - Supporting Document for Proposed Local Development Plan 2015 - East ...
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Supporting Document for Proposed Local Development Plan 2015 East Dunbartonshire Evidence Report 6: Retail Capacity Assessment Strategic Environmental Assessment: Environment Report Action Programme Habitats Regulations Appraisal Equality Impact Assessment Policy Background Reports Evidence Report 1: Addressing Housing Need and Demand in East Dunbartonshire Evidence Report 2: Housing Land Audit 2014 Evidence Report 3: Site Assessments Evidence Report 4: Campsie Fells Statement of Importance Evidence Report 5: Kilpatrick Hills Statement of Importance Evidence Report 6: Retail Capacity Assessment Evidence Report 7: Wind Energy Framework
and
Roderick MacLean Associates Ltd
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE RETAIL
CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
AMENDED VERSION
August 2014
East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Contents
1.0 Introduction
2.0 Planning Policy Framework
3.0 Retail Market Overview
4.0 Retail Catchment Areas & Populations
5.0 Household Survey
6.0 Convenience Expenditure & Turnover
7.0 Spare Convenience Expenditure Capacity
8.0 Comparison Expenditure & Turnover
9.0 Spare Comparison Expenditure Capacity
10.0 Conclusions
Appendices
Appendix 1: Household survey questions
Appendix 2: Convenience shopping patterns – household survey
Appendix 3: Convenience expenditure inflows from beyond East
Dunbartonshire
Appendix 4: Comparison shopping patterns - household survey
Appendix 5: Comparison expenditure inflows from beyond East
Dunbartonshire
Appendix 6: Strathkelvin Retail Park
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Ryden and Roderick MacLean Associates were instructed by East
Dunbartonshire Council (EDC) in August 2013 to undertake a Retail
Capacity Assessment for East Dunbartonshire. The retail capacity
assessment is required to inform the emerging Local Development Plan
(LDP) town centre and retail policy options.
1.2 There have been considerable changes within the retail sector, at a
national and local level since the last retail capacity study was undertaken
in 2008 (and published in 2009). That study identified limited capacity for
further convenience retailing and a larger requirement for comparison retail
floorspace and bulky goods in particular, which if satisfied would allow the
catchment to compete with centres in the surrounding area.
1.3 This report provides an up-to-date retail assessment of the need for
additional convenience and comparison retail floorspace during the
emerging LDP period (2016-2021) and establishes a benchmark against
which the impact of retail proposals contrary to the LDP can be assessed in
the future. This version of the report amends the version dated February
2014 to include a non-food retail consent in Milngavie.
Study Area
1.4 The study area, East Dunbartonshire, is located to the north of Glasgow
and bounded by the Campsie Fells and Kilpatrick Hills. It covers an area of
20,172 ha with an estimated population of 105,192 (as at 2011). The main
settlements are Bearsden, Milgavie, Kirkintilloch and Bishopbriggs and
these form the principal focus of the study.
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Figure 1: East Dunbartonshire Council Area
Source: East Dunbartonshire Council
1.5 Following this introductory chapter the report is structured as follows:
Chapter 2 - Planning Policy Framework
Chapter 3 - Retail Market Overview
Chapter 4 - Retail Catchment Areas & Populations
Chapter 5 - Household Survey
Chapter 6 - Convenience Expenditure & Turnover
Chapter 7 - Spare Convenience Expenditure Capacity
Chapter 8 - Comparison Expenditure & Turnover
Chapter 9 - Spare Comparison Expenditure Capacity
Chapter 10 - Conclusions
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
2.0 Planning Policy Framework
Scottish Planning Policy
2.1 The most recent version of the SPP was published in June 2014. The main
change in emphasis compared to the 2010 version is the greater focus on
encouraging the diversity of uses and vitality within town centres generally,
alongside support for improvement to the quality of the centres as places to
live and work.
2.2 The ‘Town Centres First’ policy is promoted in the 2014 SPP, when
planning for uses which attract significant numbers of people, including
retail, commercial and leisure uses, offices, community and cultural
facilities. Plans should identify a network of centres (city centres, town
centres, local centres and commercial centres), explaining how they
interrelate. Health checks of town centres should be undertaken regularly
to assess their vitality and viability and strengths/ weaknesses. These
checks should be used to develop town centre strategies.
2.3 Development plans should adopt the sequential approach to preferred
locations for uses which generate significant footfall, including retailing and
other uses, in the following order of preference:
Town centres
Edge of town centres
Other commercial centres
Out of centre locations that are readily accessible by a choice of
transport.
2.4 Out of centre locations should only be considered where the town centre/
edge of centre and commercial centre options are unavailable or do not
exist, together with meeting other criteria specified in the SPP.
Development Plan
2.5 The development plan for East Dunbartonshire is made up of two parts, the
strategic development plan (SDP) - Glasgow & Clyde Valley Strategic
Development Plan (2012) and the Local Plan - East Dunbartonshire Local
Plan 2 (Adopted 31 October 2011).
2.6 The SDP is a high level document which sets out the spatial vision and
related strategic development strategy for the Glasgow city-region, up to
2035. It provides the geographical framework for local authorities to
produce their local development plans and assess planning applications.
2.7 Background Report 14 of the SDP ‘Network of Strategic Centres’ provides
the context for retailing within the city-region. This network is identified as
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
a hierarchy of the city centre, strategic centres and other centres and is
based on “retail offer and local strategic significance”. The intention is to
protect centres from further decline caused by a trend towards out of centre
locations driven by retailers demand for modern and larger floorplates.
2.8 Glasgow city centre sits at the top of the network hierarchy due to its
dominance in the city-region and wider area. The twenty three strategic
centres below fall into two categories – those with an important retail
function and those with a strategic function within the local authority area.
Kirkintilloch falls into the latter due to the role of its historic town centre as a
civic and cultural centre and is the only East Dunbartonshire town to be
included.
2.9 Following on from the SDP, local development plan policies should reflect
the need to ‘safeguard and promote’ the network of centres based on their
specific role and function. The relevant local policies for East
Dunbartonshire are outlined below.
2.10 East Dunbartonshire Local Plan 2 was adopted 31 October 2011 and
provides the land use framework for the East Dunbartonshire area. This
sets out the policies for the town centres, namely Milngavie, Bearsden,
Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch to “maintain and improve their attractiveness
as shopping and visitor destinations and to maintain and, where
appropriate, recover market share and improve centre vitality and viability”.
2.11 The local plan policies therefore seek to protect and enhance the retail
offering in the town centres, increase residential use and improve
accessibility.
2.12 East Dunbartonshire Council is preparing a new Local Development Plan
for the area which will replace the East Dunbartonshire Local Plan 2. This
is currently at the Main Issues stage and the new LDP is expected to be
completed in 2016. This study will help to inform the emerging LDP retail
planning policies.
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
3.0 Retail Market Overview
Retailing in Scotland
3.1 Two major trends have been affecting the retail and leisure sector: market
concentration in larger destinations at the expense of smaller locations, and
pressure on consumer expenditure as price inflation outstrips earnings
growth. The market response is very selective new investment by
successful retailers, against a wider background of failures and
rationalisations among less successful businesses. Much of the market is
now polarised between well-occupied prime destinations and weaker
locations where trade and retailer demand are much more fragile.
3.2 According to the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC)/KPMG, sales in
Scotland during December 2013 were 1.1% higher than December 2012.
However, like-for-like sales (which discount the impact of store openings,
closures and expansions in order to measure performance across the retail
sector) decreased by 2.9% over the same period.
3.3 SRC reports that shop price deflation is having an impact upon the values
of sales and, in real terms, sales in December decreased by 0.3%. Both
food and non-food sales were lower, at 0.3% and 1.7% respectively, than
the previous December. Wages rates have not increased at the same
rates as inflation resulting in subdued consumer spending.
3.4 Trading conditions have been difficult for many retailers. 2012 was the
worst year for retailers failing since 2008. In 2013, a number of major
retailers such as Comet, Blockbusters and Jessops collapsed. Other
struggling retailers such as Dreams and HMV have been saved, either in
whole or part, after being purchased by restructuring specialists.
3.5 Value retailers, for example B & M, Poundworld, Home Bargains and
Poundland, are still expanding and actively looking for new sites. In
general however, although national multiple retailers do have property
requirements, these are very specific in terms of location and property type.
3.6 In the food sector, the most active sub-sector is the local convenience store
market, as the big four food retailers jostle for position and market share.
There are around 49,000 convenience stores in the UK but branded
grocery chains account for less than 10%. Tesco, Co-op and Sainsbury’s
are all active with Morrisons having a requirement for 300 outlets for their
‘M’ Store concept to complement their supermarkets, and have acquired
forty-nine Blockbuster stores and seven former Jessops units.
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
3.7 At the opposite end of the convenience store sector it is clear that the race
for space by major superstores in waning. Interest in such sites is now
highly selective and retailers are now concentrating more on effective use
of existing stores, multi-channel sales and small local outlets as mentioned
previously. There is still selective demand for large stores, but typically
4,000 – 6,000 sq m rather than up to 10,000 sq m as had been the case
until recently.
On-line Retailing
3.8 Internet spending is a fast growing part of retail expenditure. It is the main
element of special forms of trading (SFT), which also includes mail order,
telephone sales and markets, all of which are forms of non-store retail
expenditure. It reduces the expenditure available to service conventional
1
shop floorspace. Experian forecast that non-store comparison retail sales
could rise to 20.9% of total comparison spending by 2021, with little
increase beyond that, as growth tapers off. This forecast is mainly driven
by online sales.
3.9 Experian explain that part of this proportion is associated with shop
floorspace (‘click and collect’ for example), so the forecast deduction from
total comparison expenditure relating to shop floorspace should be around
15.7% at 2021, for the purpose of assessing future space requirements.
For convenience retail sales, the equivalent proportions for 2021 are 15.2%
of total convenience spending and a 4.6% reduction in floorspace, where
the big difference is probably mainly accounted for by home delivery from
existing supermarket shelves. Increased home delivery from warehouses,
for both convenience and comparison goods, will continue to affect the
requirements for conventional retail floorspace. See also sections 6 and 8.
3.10 Many major multiples now offer both online and store-based shopping with
the latter providing an essential platform for viewing the goods before
online purchases are made. This multi-channel retailing allows retailers to
provide ‘click and collect’ services attracting shoppers into high street
shops to pick up and return goods. There is, therefore, still a requirement
for physical space from such retailers.
2
3.11 The British Retail Consortium reports that internet non-food sales in
December 2013 were 19.2% higher than December 2012. Technology,
through the increased use of smartphones and tablets, has contributed to
this growth. However, it is worth noting that technology companies with a
retail offering recognise the importance of a high street presence
1
Experian Retail Planner- Briefing Note 11, Appendix 3.
2
BRC-KPMG Online Retail Sales Monitor December 2013
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East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
demonstrated, for example, by the Apple stores now found in prime
shopping destinations.
3.12 Independent retailers are increasingly offering online shopping too and this
can prove very successful for niche and specialist shops. For many small
independent retailers though, online shopping poses direct competition,
which can only be met by improved quality of offer.
Glasgow retail market
3.13 Glasgow sits at the top of the retail hierarchy and is situated around four
miles from the East Dunbartonshire Council area boundary. It remains the
second most popular retail destination in the UK after London and also
ranks second in terms of turnover. The city continues to stay ahead of
competing centres for new retail requirements. Buchanan Street is
Scotland’s prime retail destination, achieving prime rents of around £260
per sq ft Zone A and is complemented to the south by St Enoch Centre,
which recently changed ownership. The stable rental position in Glasgow
illustrates starkly the point about market polarisation; in the wider market
rents across Scotland’s top twenty retail centres have fallen by around 30%
since the start of the recession as shown in the Ryden Retail Index below
(Figure 2).
Figure 2: Ryden Retail Rental Index
3.14 As can been seen in Figure 2, rents have stabilised in 2013 but remain
19% below the 2007 peak, excluding the effects of price inflations. Many
occupiers are now trading at rents considerably in excess of current values.
This is compounded by non-domestic rates which often are not reflective of
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the letting market, and indeed can make units uneconomic even on
reduced rents.
3.15 Glasgow continues to stay ahead of competing centres for new retail
requirements demonstrated by the opening of Scotland’s first Forever 21
store within Land Securities’ £70 million Buchanan Quarter development in
March 2013. Land Securities has further development planned with
planning in principle consent having been secured for an extension to
Buchanan Galleries for a £300 million retail and leisure scheme. This is
expected to double the volume of retail space and provide restaurants, a
cinema and a car park. Marks and Spencer has been signed up as an
anchor tenant in a new 13,935 sq m store.
3.16 Outside the city centre, Hammerson has commenced development of its
10,700 sq m extension to Silverburn Shopping Centre comprising a 14-
screen cinema, nine restaurants and bingo hall. This follows the recent
completion of a leisure extension at the Glasgow Fort, 4,180 sq m in size,
accommodating a Vue multiplex cinema and restaurant space let to TGI
Friday’s, Prezzo, Harvester, Chiquito and Pizza Express.
3.17 In Renfrewshire, on the outskirts of Glasgow, Intu Properties has plans to
expand Braehead Shopping Centre at the cost of £200 million. This will
include a new ice skating arena, sports facilities and a 200-bedroom hotel.
3.18 Investment activity within the retail property market has been supressed
due to the continuing challenges faced by the retail sector. There is
demand for prime retail assets within the major city centres as
demonstrated by the recent purchase of 123-129 Buchanan Street, a mixed
use retail and office block, by Scottish Widows Investment Partnership for
£22.85 million. This particular deal achieved a yield of 5%, and other
recent and on-going deals across Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow have
also achieved 5% or below, despite cautious rental growth predictions
within the retail sector. Buyers are taking the opportunity to secure trophy
assets which offer scarcity and therefore viewed as easy to sell on if
required.
3.19 Secondary and tertiary locations, by contrast, are heavily discounted both
in historic terms and compared to prime locations. Yields are varied, even
for retail units in the same pitch, once factors like income security, lease
length and occupier demand are factored in.
3.20 In summary, the overall picture is of a gradually improving retail market, in
line with the wider economy, although sales are volatile month-to-month
and growth is not strong. Major malls are attracting new development but
for the large majority of towns the priority will be to stabilise occupancy
levels then gradually reduce vacancies, including some diversification away
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from retail and probably involving new leisure operators. Investment has
been focused mainly on prime retail locations.
East Dunbartonshire Retail Locations
3.21 The main retail locations within East Dunbartonshire are the town centres
of Bearsden, Bishopbriggs, Milngavie and Kirkintilloch, and Strathkelvin
Retail Park in Bishopbriggs. These are considered individually in further
detail below.
3.22 Bearsden has a range of retail brands represented within the town centre.
These include a few national retailers such as Optical Express, Barrhead
Travel, Majestic Wine Warehouse, McDonalds, Farmfoods, Vets 4 Pets
and M&S Simply Food as well as a selection of independent retailers
including Sinclair Pharmacy, Whiz Kids, Golfing House, Quartz Travel and
Cutting Edge Hair Design.
Figure 3: Bearsden Cross
3.23 Current Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 124 retail
properties in Bearsden with only five vacant units, giving a vacancy rate of
only 4%.
3.24 Supermarket provision with Bearsden consists of:
Asda at Milngavie Road,
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M & S Simply Food on Drymen Road,
Lidl at Baljaffray Shopping Centre,
Scotmid on Ledi Drive
Co-operative Food Store on Station Road.
3.25 The prime retail pitch in Bearsden is the area known as ‘The Cross’ where
Drymen Road and Roman Road meet and includes New Kirk Road.
3.26 Bishopbriggs town centre contains a number of retail brands, including
national chains - Boots, Greggs, Superdrug, Subway and Timpson, as well
as a range of independent retailers (including M & M Eyecare, Estetica,
Thomas Auld & Sons and Glamour Eyes), and retail services including
restaurants, cafes and financial and professional services.
Figure 4: Bishopbriggs Town Centre
3.27 Supermarkets in the town are Morrison’s (who purchased the Triangle
Shopping Centre in August 2012 and are progressing with plans to
redevelop/build a new store), Tesco Express and Asda both on Kirkintilloch
Road.
3.28 The prime retail pitch in Bishopbriggs’ town centre is the Triangle Shopping
Centre and Kirkintilloch Road.
3.29 Strathkelvin Retail Park, by Bishopbriggs, is owned by Caledonian Property
Investments and it has over 24,600 sq m of gross comparison good
retailing space.totals 29,100 sq.m. The retailers located here are listed in
Appendix 6.
Figure 5: Strathkelvin Retail Park
Page 12 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
3.30 Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 98 retail properties in
Bishopbriggs with no vacant units.
3.31 Kirkintilloch has a diverse range of retail brands represented in the town
centre. These include market staples such as Optical Express, Boots,
Poundland, WH Smith, Superdrug, Greggs and Shoe Zone, as well as a
wide range of independent retailers (including Sugar Plum, Sun Shack,
Cards Direct, Nysa Notions and Bargain Central), along with non-retail
services including restaurants, cafes and financial and professional
services.
Figure 6: Kirkintilloch Town Centre
3.32 Supermarket provision in the town comprises a Tesco Metro in the Regent
Shopping Centre, a Sainsbury’s on Shamrock Street, and Scotmid on
Gallowhill Road. Lidl has recently opened a store on the former bus depot
site on Milton Road in November 2013.
3.33 Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 189 retail properties in
Kirkintilloch with 11 vacant units, giving a vacancy rate of only 6%.
3.34 The prime retail pitch in Kirkintilloch is Cowgate, where the Regent
Shopping Centre is also located. The Regent Centre was built in 1991 and
comprises 21 retail units and a 3,012 sq m supermarket (Tesco).
3.35 Milngavie also has a selection of retail brands represented in the town
centre. These include market staples such as M&S Simply Food, Boots, M
& CO, Greggs, Costa Coffee, Optical Express, Specsavers, Iceland and
Poundstretcher, as well as a wide range of independent retailers (including
Page 13 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Reids of Milngavie, Lingerie Boutique, Fantoosh Fish, Ruby Red, Foils and
Milngavie Bookshop).
Figure 7: Milngavie Town Centre
3.36 Supermarkets in Milngavie consist of:
Scotmid on South Mains Road,
Tesco at Gavin’s Mill (which has recently been refurbished after
plans to build a Tesco Extra store in the town were shelved in June
2013,
From 2014, Waitrose will have a presence with a new store to open
just off the Burnbrae roundabout.
3.37 Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 79 retail properties in
Milngavie with only one vacant unit, giving a vacancy rate of only 1%.
3.38 The prime retail pitches in Milngavie town centre are Main Street and
Station Road.
Market Activity
3.39 There are currently five units on the market in Bearsden totalling 272 sq m.
Bishopbriggs has eight units totalling 7,690 sq m available (of this 6,819 sq
m is part of the redevelopment of the B&Q unit at Strathkelvin Retail Park).
Kirkintilloch has 17 retail properties, totalling 3,378 sq m, on the market,
and Milngavie has one unit totalling 59 sq m currently available. This is
depicted in Figure 8 below:
Page 14 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Figure 8: Retail Availability
Source: CoStar
3.40 Table 1 identifies notable recent openings and closures of retail outlets in
the East Dunbartonshire area. In common with other towns, town centres
may be losing some multiple retailers and closures such as Comet,
Peacocks and Thomas Cook are not specific to East Dunbartonshire but
are national retailer failures affecting many locations. It was recently
announced that Nike has taken 929 sq m of retail space at Strathkelvin
Retail Park, making the Park fully let.
Table 1: Retail openings and closures
Town Location Retailer Date
Openings
Bishopbriggs Strathkelvin Retail Iceland Jun 2012
Park Next Dec 2011
Frankie & Benny’s Aug 2011
Bearsden Hillfoot Road Vets 4 Pets Spring 2012
Station Road Co-operative Food October 2011
Closures
Kirkintilloch Cowgate Happit May 2012
Bishopbriggs Strathkelvin Retail Comet Dec 2012
Park Peacocks Feb 2012
Bearsden Thomas Cook Spring 2013
3.41 Table 2 shows a selection of recent deals from across the Council area. Of
these deals, 6 were in Bearsden, 4 in Bishopbriggs, 5 in Kirkintilloch and 4
in Milngavie.
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Table 2: Recent retail transactions in East Dunbartonshire
Address Size (sq Comments
m)
2 Springfield Road, 58 Let in November 2013 to an undisclosed tenant on a new 10
Bishopbriggs year lease at £15,000 pa (£259 per sq m).
2 Canniesburn Toll, Bearsden 35 Let in October 2013 to Pound Plus (Helensburgh) Ltd on a new
10 year lease at £10,300 pa (£294 per sq m).
67-73 Milgavie Road, 58 Let in October 2013 to Mr Mohammed Iqbal (t/a Shish
Bearsden Tandoori) on a new 25 year lease at £11,500 pa (£198 per sq
m).
35-37 Douglas Street, 40 Let in September 2013 to an undisclosed tenant on a new
Milngavie lease on confidential terms.
1-15 Mugdock Road, 72 Let in September 2013 to Mary Easton ltd (t/a The Dress Shop)
Milngavie on a renewed 10 year lease at £9,625 pa (£134 per sq m).
Units A-F Lomond Drive, 74 Let in July 2013 to Fiona Hardie on a two year sub-lease at
Bishopbriggs £11,000 per annum (£149 per sq m).
161-163 Milngavie Road, 37 Let in July 2013 to Kitchens Direct. Asking rent £14,000 pa.
Bearsden
15-19 Cowgate, Kirkintilloch 266 Let in May 2013 to St Margaret of Scotland Hospice at £25,000
pa (£94 per sq m)
157 Kirkintilloch Road, 41 Let in May 2013 to an undisclosed tenant on a ten-year lease
Bishopbriggs at £10,000 pa (£244 per sq m)
Unit 3, 38 Stewart Street, 39 Let in March 2013 to Susan McMahon t/a The Lingerie
Milngavie Boutique on a new five year FRI lease at £10,000 pa (£256 per
sq m)
Unit 4, 38 Stewart Street, 39 Let in March 2013 to Emily Fotheringham t/a Fotheringham on
Milngavie a new five year FRI lease at £10,500 pa (£269 per sq m)
102-166 Drymen Road, 23 Let in January 2013 to Mr G McNab t/a Barbers on a sublease
Bearsden expiring in February 2022 at £11,500 pa ((£500 per sq m).
2-4 Freeland Place, 82 Let in Dec 2012 to Sun Shack. Quoting rent was £10,000 pa
Kirkintilloch
28-30 Cowgate, Kirkintilloch 133 Let in June 2012 to DEBRA on confidential terms
14 Townhead, Kirkintilloch 54 Let in May 2012 to Cash 4 Clothes on confidential terms
165 Milngavie Road, Bearsden 71 Let in March 2012 to Rettie & Co on a ten-year lease at
£15,500 pa (£217 per sq.m.
161-163 Milngavie Road, 37 Let in March 2012 to Liggy’s Cakes on a five-year lease at
Bearsden £10,000 pa (£27 per sq.m.).
1 Hillfoot Drive, Bearsden 200 Let in January 2012 to Vets for Pets. The quoting rent was
£35,000 pa (£175 per sq.m.)
3 Station Road, Bearsden 334 Let in October 2011 to The Co-Operative Group Ltd on a 15-
year lease at £75,000 pa (£224 per sq.m.).
Unit 1C Strathkelvin Retail 929 Let in September 2011 to Next Retail on a 10 year lease at
Park, Bishopbriggs £145,000 pa (£156 per sq.m.).
37 Eastside, Kirkintilloch 46 Let in June 2011 to Desiree on a one-year lease at £6,000 pa
(£130 per sq.m.).
Source : CoStar
3.42 Investment transactions provide one indicator of property market interest
and confidence. Following the property market crash, only six investment
transactions have been recorded in the region since 2010, including those
shown in Table 3 below.
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Table 3: Investment Transactions
Address Size Comments
(sq m)
3 Station Road, Bearsden 334 Sold in February 2012 to a private investor for £1.15m, reflecting a net initial
yield of 6.1%. The property is let to Co-operative Group Food Limited.
56 Drymen Road, 49 Sold in August 2011 to Trygort (2) Ltd for £242,500, reflecting a net initial
Bearsden yield of 6.64%. The property is let to Dignity Funerals Ltd.
54-56 Cowgate, 350 Sold in June 2012 to Gilpak Ltd by a private investor for £416,000, reflecting
Kirkintilloch a net initial yield of 7.91%. The property is let to Lloyds Pharmacy Ltd.
95 Main Street, 44 Sold in April 2010 to Mr R Lovat by Clydesdale Bank plc for £23,500
Lennoxtown
Source: CoStar
Retail Rents
3.43 Retail rents in East Dunbartonshire vary across the town centres as detailed
in the table below:
Table 4: Retail rents in East Dunbartonshire
Town Rent Values (per sq m)
Bearsden £198 to £500
Bishopbriggs £149 to £259
Kirkintilloch £94 - £130
Milngavie £134 - £269
Source: CoStar
Retailer Requirements
3.44 Retailer requirements to locate in towns and commercial centres provide an
important indicator of market demand. Since the market downturn in 2008
however, many retailers are no longer actively seeking new premises, or
are being extremely selective. Where retailers are looking for premises,
many simply have blanket requirements covering whole regions rather than
specific requirements for named centres. These factors complicate any
assessment of demand based upon retailer requirements.
3.45 According to one data source which tracks requirements over time
Kirkintilloch had a high of 12 retailer requirements in 2004 and this has
fallen to the current three requirements. Bishopbriggs had a high of 11
retailer requirements in 2006 and this has fallen to none, likewise Bearsden
had highs of 11 retailer requirements in 2006/2007 and this has also fallen
to none.
3.46 A panel of data sources used for this study records a total of 13 different
retail requirements throughout East Dunbartonshire totalling between 2,347
– 6,511 sq.m. Table 5 below shows these requirements.
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Table 5: Retail Requirements
Sector No of Size of Town(s) Pitch
reqs requirement
(sq.m gross.)
Retailers
Household goods 1 209 - 325 Kirkintilloch High Street or shopping centre
Supermarkets 3 900-1,500 Milngavie, Town centre or edge-of-centre
(discounter) 900-1,500 Bearsden,
900-1,500 Kirkintilloch
Total retail 4 2,909-4,825
Non-retail services
Restaurants / café/ 8 1,006 – 1,212 Kirkintilloch Prime or good secondary, corner
site preferred. High Street, parade
bars Bishopbriggs, or edge of town shopping. Close to
Bearsden, retail / business / transport hubs.
Edge of town, in town,out of town.
Milngavie High Street or secondary parade.
Car parts / motor 1 232 - 465 Bearsden Edge of town
factors
Total service 9
3.47 In addition to these retailer requirements in Table 5, there are two fast food
operators looking for franchises throughout the country but with no specific
towns named.
3.48 A further 11 nationwide retailers have requirements (which include non-
specifically named requirements for Scotland). Of these requirements two
are for supermarkets; three are for restaurants / café/ bars; one is for
household goods; one is for clothing, two are for pharmacy/health &
beauty; and two are for discount retailers.
Conclusions
3.49 Slow growth in the retail sector has resulted in development being primarily
restricted to prime locations. With the food sector, the development of
superstores has been declining but there is significant activity within the
convenience store sub-sector.
3.50 Occupancy levels in East Dunbartonshire are high with a diverse range of
brands represented, despite the close proximity to Glasgow. However, the
loss of retailers due to business failures and contracting national multiples
has had an impact on the town centres.
3.51 There have been a number of retail property market transactions
completed across the four towns. The vast majority of this activity has
been occupier related with only a handful of investment deals being
Page 18 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
completed. This reflects the fact that investment activity within the retail
sector is limited outside of prime retail locations such as Glasgow city
centre.
3.52 Letting activity is generally for small units and rental values vary across the
area from a low of £94 per sq m in Kirkintilloch to £500 per sq m in
Bearsden.
3.53 Latent demand from multiple retailers is weak; towns are more likely to
depend upon regional and local retailers, and complementary commercial
uses moving forward into the next LDP period.
Page 19 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
4.0 Retail catchment areas and population
Introduction
4.1 This section shows the study area of East Dunbartonshire, subdivided into
primary retail catchment areas based on the main towns, together with the
current and projected populations of the catchments to 2016 and 2021 in
accordance with the study brief.
Convenience catchment areas and population
4.2 Map 4.1 illustrates the primary catchment areas relating to Bearsden,
Milngavie, Bishopbriggs, Kirkintilloch and the Northern Villages. These are
the same areas as applied in the 2009 Retail Capacity Study. They
comprise groups of postcode sectors which almost match the Council area
boundary, but not exactly (although with the same total population from the
old 2001 Census). Experian show a slight change in the postcode sector
boundaries that extend into the Campsie Hills within the Council area, but
this makes no difference as the extension contains no population. These
five areas are defined as zones in the recent household survey for this
study.
4.3 Table 4.1 shows the current and projected populations of the five
convenience catchment areas, incorporating the 2011 Census findings and
applying the 2010 based population projections by the Registrar General to
2021, as explained in the table footnote. Slight population decline is
projected over the period.
Comparison catchment areas and population
4.4 Map 4.2 illustrates the two primary comparison catchment areas in East
Dunbartonshire from the study brief. These relate to the areas within East
Dunbartonshire defined by the old Structure Plan Technical Report TR7/06
(2006). The two comparison catchment areas include: (1) Bearsden/
Milngavie and (2) Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages. The areas
equate to the sum of the relevant convenience catchments. In the 2009
Capacity Study, the analysis of comparison expenditure capacity focussed
on the Council area only.
4.5 Table 4.2 shows the current and projected populations of the two
comparison catchment areas, drawing on the same sources as applied to
the convenience catchment populations.
Page 20 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Map 4.1 Convenience Retail Catchment Areas (Study Zones)
Page 21 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Map 4.2 Comparison Retail Catchment Areas (2)
(Bearsden/Milngavie) and (Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages)
Page 22 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Table 4.1 East Dunbartonshire convenience catchment areas: population projections
Catchment areas 2001 ***2011 2013 2016 2021
(survey zones) Census Census based
Zone 1 Bearsden
G61-1,G61-2, G61-3,G61-4 27,967 27,136 27,025 26,803 26,378
Zone 2 Milngavie
G62-6,G62-7,*G62-8 13,846 13,434 13,380 13,270 13,059
Zone 3 Bishopbriggs
G64-1,G64-2,G64-3 23,384 22,689 22,596 22,411 22,055
Zone 4 Kirkintilloch
**G65-9,G66-1,G66-2, 31,424 30,490 30,366 30,116 29,639
G66-3,G66-4,**G66-5
Zone 5 Northern Villages
G64-4,G66-7,G66-8 11,622 11,277 11,231 11,138 10,962
Total survey area 108,243 105,026 104,597 103,738 102,093
Note:
* Postcode Sector G62-8: data included for part in E Dunbartonshire. Part in Stirling Council area is negligible
** Postcode Sector G65-9: data included for part in E Dunbartonshire (Tw echar) and G66-5- part in E Dunbartonshire only.
***Population change from 2001 to 2011 based on the recent Census 2011 release for E Dunbartonshire
2,001 2,011 2,013 2,016 2,021
E Dunbartonshire Council Area Census Census
108,243 105,026
RG 2010 based population projections 104,380 103,954 103,100 101,465
Period 2011-13 2013-16 2016-21
Change 0.9959 0.9918 0.9841
Applied to 2011 Census population 104,597 103,738 102,093
Table 4.2 East Dunbartonshire comparison catchment areas: population projections
2001 2011 2013 2016 2021
Catchment areas Census Census based
Bearsden/ Milngavie
(Zones 1 & 2) 41,813 40,570 40,405 40,073 39,437
Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/
N Villages (Zones 3,4,5) 66,430 64,456 64,193 63,665 62,656
Total survey area 108,243 105,026 104,597 103,738 102,093
Sources: as Table 4.1
Page 23 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
5.0 Household survey
Introduction
5.1 The telephone interview survey (1,000) covered the area embracing the
five zones representing the convenience catchment areas defined on Map
4.1. These zones comprise the groups of postcode sectors shown in Table
4.1, together with their populations.
5.2 Appendix 1 contains a list of the questions asked by the structured
questionnaire, together with the interview quotas by zone, which were in
proportion to the population of each zone. Interviews were conducted by
randomly generated selection of telephone numbers within each zone. The
output tables produced by RMG Clarity Market Research Ltd, together with
the associated questionnaire, are provided as separate documents to
accompany this report.
5.3 The household survey provides the best means of estimating the retail
expenditure flows into, and out of, the catchment areas shown on Maps 4.1
and 4.2, by the residents of East Dunbartonshire.
Survey findings
5.4 The following graphs and commentary refer to the most frequent responses
to the questionnaire on issues relating to shopping patterns. Also included
in the questionnaire are questions on usage and perceptions of the town
centres as places to visit, and questions on the evening economy. These
are available for separate use by the Council, as they are not central to the
retail capacity study.
5.5 For the full list of responses, reference needs to be made to the RMG
Clarity Research tabulations. Furthermore, the percentages shown in the
graphs and script of this report excludes those respondents who said don’t
know/ varies, don’t buy, internet and mail order- since the focus is on the
relative attraction to floorspace in centres/stores. Internet spending on the
different categories of goods is highlighted separately.
Most visited stores for main food shopping
5.6 The most popular superstores and supermarkets for main food shopping
are identified on the graphs overleaf:
Bearsden residents: Asda at Bearsden is the predominant attraction,
followed by Tesco in Milngavie. Morrisons at Crow Road, Glasgow and
M&S in Milngavie are also identified, but in lesser proportions;
Milngavie residents: Tesco in Milngavie is identified by nearly 71% of
the respondents, followed by ASDA at Bearsden;
Page 24 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Main food shopping and mode of travel
Page 25 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Bishopbriggs residents: similar proportions (about 40% each), most
often visit Morrisons and Asda at Bishopbriggs. Smaller proportions visit
Asda at Robroyston and Tesco at St Rollox;
Kirkintilloch residents: Tesco and Sainsbury’s at Kirkintilloch are the
main destinations; and
Northern Villages: the most visited stores for main food shopping
include M&S at Strathkelvin Retail Park, Sainsbury’s at Kirkintilloch,
ASDA at Bishopbriggs and Tesco at Kirkintilloch, with a more even
spread of destinations compared to the other catchments.
Mode of travel to main food destination
5.7 The graph on the previous page shows that about 76% of shoppers went to
their most visited foodstore by car, with 12% walking and 8% travelling by
bus. These findings reveal the continued primacy of the car for main food
shopping trips.
Main centres for clothing and fashion
5.8 The graphs overleaf show the most popular destinations for comparison
goods shopping by category. Residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden
catchment mostly visit Glasgow City Centre (59%) for clothing and fashion,
followed by Braehead (18%). Only 4% identified Milngavie town centre as
their main destination. In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages
catchment, residents identified Glasgow City Centre as their main
destination (69%), followed by Strathkelvin Retail Park (9%).
Main centres for furniture, floorcoverings and furnishings
5.9 Residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment mostly visit Glasgow City
Centre (47%) for furniture and furnishings, followed by Braehead (11%)
and Clydebank (11%). In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages
catchment, residents identified Glasgow City Centre as their main
destination (39%), followed by Strathkelvin Retail Park (34%).
Main centres for domestic appliances
5.10 Glasgow City Centre (26%) followed by Great Western Retail Park (19%)
were identified by residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment as their
most visited centres for buying domestic appliances. In the Bishopbriggs/
Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, residents identified Strathkelvin
Retail Park as their main destination (71%), followed by Glasgow City
Centre (14%).
Page 26 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Main destinations for comparison goods shopping
Page 27 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Main centres for DIY/hardware
5.11 Great Western Retail Park (36%) followed by other local shops in Milngavie
(14%) and Strathkelvin Retail Park (13%) were identified by residents of the
Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment as their most visited centres for buying DIY
and hardware. In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages
catchment, residents identified Strathkelvin Retail Park as their main
destination (85%), followed by local shops in Bishopbriggs (3%).
Strathkelvin Retail Park is the overwhelming destination in terms of
popularity.
Main centres for personal goods
5.12 Residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment mostly visit Glasgow City
Centre (47%) for personal goods, followed by Milngavie town centre (14%)
and Braehead (11%). In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages
catchment, residents identified Glasgow City Centre as their main
destination (54%), followed by Strathkelvin Retail Park (18%).
Internet and mail order shopping
5.13 Use of the internet and mail order shopping was not a specific question, but
the survey recorded where respondents identified the internet and mail
Page 28 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
order in their responses to the questions by type of goods. These forms of
shopping are known as special forms of trading (SFT) - see section 3. Use
of the internet and mail order accounted for significant proportions of
shopping for personal goods and domestic appliances by residents of East
Dunbartonshire, but otherwise the proportions are relatively low for other
3
goods categories, as indicated by the graph. The current UK proportion of
SFT is 12.3% for all retail goods.
5.14 In the analysis for the capacity study, the proportions of SFT are based on
national forecasts, including allowance for increasing proportions of internet
spending in the future. These sources on SFT will be more reliable than the
survey based findings, which are not applied for this reason.
5.15 The survey findings on the shopping patterns by goods type are combined
to show the patterns for all convenience goods and all comparison goods in
the following sections.
3
Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, 2013- page 19
Page 29 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
6.0 Convenience expenditure and turnover
Introduction
6.1 The analysis examines the relationships between expenditure and turnover
for each of the five catchment areas and for the Council area as a whole. It
incorporates the shopping patterns from the household survey, which
reveal the expenditure inflows and outflows from each catchment. All
values are expressed in constant 2012 prices.
Forecast convenience expenditure potential
6.2 Table 6.1 shows the forecast expenditure per capita data for East
Dunbartonshire, based on data commissioned from Experian for this study.
These forecasts take account of the socio economic structure of the area,
with UK based forecasts of change by Experian to 2016 and 2021 applied.
Account is taken of the current economic conditions and assessment of
various trend projections, which together represent Experian’s ‘central case
forecasts’.
6.3 Special forms of trading (SFT), including internet shopping, are removed
from the expenditure per capita data, so that it relates to conventional shop
floorspace, as shown in Table 6.1. The proportion of SFT is projected to
increase up to 2021- see section 3. It should be noted that the proportions
of SFT shown in this table do not include internet home delivery coming
from existing supermarket shelves.
Table 6.1 Convenience expenditure per capita forecasts for East Dunbartonshire (in 2012 prices)
2011 2013 2016 2021
£ £ £
Expenditure per capita E Dunbartonshire 2,235 2,210 2,219 2,317
excluding special forms of trading 2,192 2,154 2,148 2,211
Note:
The figure for 2011 is from Experian data commissioned for East Dunbartonshire for this study. The orignal figure w as £2,152
in 2011 prices. This has been converted to 2012 prices by a factor of 1.03850 from Experian Retail Planner,
Briefing Note 11, Appendix 4b. UK grow th rates are applied, from Appendix 4a- see below .
£ £ £ £
UK convenience spend per capita in 2010 prices 1813.7 1793.2 1801.2 1880.5
Less: special forms of trading- internet etc -1.9% -2.5% -3.2% -4.6%
From Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, central case convenience expenditure grow th forecast, Appendix 4a. The
deductions for special forms of trading are from Appendix 3, page 19
Page 30 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
6.4 Forecasts of the total convenience expenditure potential of the residents of
each catchment area are shown in Table 6.2. They dip slightly in 2016,
rising again to almost the same totals in 2021 as currently.
Table 6.2 Convenience expenditure potential of the residents of each catchment area (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
Catchment areas £million £million £million
Zone 1 Bearsden 58.2 57.6 58.3
Zone 2 Milngavie 28.8 28.5 28.9
Zone 3 Bishopbriggs 48.7 48.1 48.8
Zone 4 Kirkintilloch 65.4 64.7 65.5
Zone 5 Northern Villages 24.2 23.9 24.2
East Dunbartonshire 225.3 222.9 225.7
Note
From Table 4.1 and Table 6.1. Excludes special forms of trading, including internet spending.
Market shares by catchment area
6.5 Market shares refer to the proportions of expenditure from residents of a
defined area which is spent in that area and in other areas. Table 6.3
shows the convenience market shares for each catchment area, based on
the household survey. Details of how the patterns for main food shopping
and top-up shopping from the survey questions are combined to represent
all convenience shopping are provided in Appendix 2.
6.6 Table 6.3 shows that 55% of the residents of the Bearsden catchment do
their convenience shopping locally, with 25% going to Milngavie and 20%
to locations outside East Dunbartonshire. Some 76% of residents of the
Milngavie catchment do their shopping in the area and 18% in Bearsden,
with only 6% using stores outside the Council area. The table indicates a
significant interrelationship between Bearsden and Milngavie, but a minimal
attraction for residents of these two catchments to stores in the remaining
catchment areas.
Page 31 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Table 6.3 Where residents of each catchment area do their convenience shopping (market shares)
Origin- catchment areas
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total East
Destination Dunbartonshire
Bearsden 55% 18% 0% 1% 3% 17%
Milngavie 25% 76% 0% 1% 5% 17%
Bishopbriggs 0% 0% 83% 24% 42% 29%
Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 1% 56% 29% 19%
Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 1%
Outside E Dunbartonshire 20% 6% 15% 18% 12% 16%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Note
Based on the household survey results for main food shopping and top-up shopping, w eighted to show the composite
for all convenience shopping. Details are provided in Appendix 2. Percentages are rounded.
6.7 In the Bishopriggs catchment, the retained convenience expenditure is very
high at 83%, with most of the balance going to stores outside East
Dunbartonshire, but only 1% using Kirkintilloch. The survey indicates that
56% of the residents of Kirkintilloch do their convenience shopping locally,
with 24% going to Bishopbriggs and 18% to stores outside the Council
area. In the Northern Villages, only 9% of convenience shopping is
retained, with most going to Bishopbriggs (42%) and Kirkintilloch (29%).
The table indicates very little current attraction to Bearsden and Milngavie
from residents of the other catchment areas for convenience shopping.
Convenience expenditure and turnover in the catchment areas
6.8 The relationship between total expenditure and turnover in each catchment
is defined simply as: residents’ expenditure potential plus inflows, less
outflows equals total turnover.
6.9 Appendix 3 shows the estimates of expenditure inflows to each catchment
in detail, based on the household survey and application of the 2008 based
NSLSP data for inflows from outside East Dunbartonshire. The outflows
are derived from the current household survey.
6.10 Tables 6.4 to 6.9 show the survey based convenience expenditure and
turnover relationships for each catchment area and for East Dunbartonshire
in 2013, 2016 and 2021. High inflows to stores in the Bearsden and
Milngavie catchments from outside East Dunbartonshire are evident
(mainly to Asda and Tesco). Also, high inflows to stores in the Milngavie
catchment and the Bishopbriggs catchment from the rest of East
Dunbartonshire are also evident, which
Page 32 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Table 6.4 Bearsden catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
Zone 1 Bearsden catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
% £million £million £million
Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 58.2 57.6 58.3
Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 11% 6.6 6.5 6.6
inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 29% 16.9 16.7 16.9
Less: outflows -45% -26.3 -26.1 -26.4
Turnover 55.3 54.7 55.4
Note
From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.5 Milngavie catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
Zone 2 Milngavie catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
% £million £million £million
Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 28.8 28.5 28.9
Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 57% 16.4 16.2 16.4
inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 33% 9.6 9.5 9.6
Less: outflows -24% -7.0 -6.9 -7.0
Turnover 47.8 47.2 47.8
Note
From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.6 Bishopbriggs catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
Zone 3 Bishopbriggs catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
% £million £million £million
Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 48.7 48.1 48.8
Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 53% 25.7 25.4 25.7
inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 16% 8.0 7.9 8.0
Less: outflows -17% -8.1 -8.0 -8.1
Turnover 74.2 73.4 74.3
Note
From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.7 Kirkintilloch catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
Zone 4 Kirkintilloch catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
% £million £million £million
Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 65.4 64.7 65.5
Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 11% 7.3 7.3 7.3
inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 4% 2.8 2.8 2.8
Less: outflows -44% -28.7 -28.4 -28.7
Turnover 46.9 46.4 47.0
Note
From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Page 33 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Table 6.8 Northern Villages catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
Zone 5 Northern Villages catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
% £million £million £million
Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 24.2 23.9 24.2
Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 1% 0.1 0.1 0.1
inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Less: outflows -91% -22.0 -21.8 -22.1
Turnover 2.3 2.2 2.3
Note
From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.9 East Dunbartonshire: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
East Dunbartonshire: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021
% £million £million £million
Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 225.3 222.9 225.7
Add:
inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 17% 37.2 36.8 37.3
Less: outflows -16% -36.1 -35.7 -36.1
Turnover 226.5 224.0 226.8
Note
From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
reflect the interrelationship with their respective neighbouring catchments.
For similar reasons, there are very high outflows from the Bearsden,
Kirkintilloch and Northern Villages catchment areas. The overall inflows
and outflows from East Dunbartonshire as a whole are almost in balance.
In fact the current outflow of 16% is slightly less than the outflow of 17.8%
estimated in the 2009 Capacity Study for 2008. There was no quoted inflow
in the previous Study.
Convenience floorspace and turnover in 2013
6.11 The current distribution of convenience floorspace in East Dunbartonshire
and in the five catchments is shown in Table 6.10, based on data provided
by the Council from their 2012 floorspace survey and sorted by the
consultants for this study. The current total of 25,094 sq m net compares to
the total of 24,645 sq m net in the 2009 Capacity Study. Average company
turnover/ floorspace ratios from the Retail Rankings 2013 are applied, with
adjustments to include VAT and remove petrol/ non- retail sales, expressed
in 2012 prices. These ratios are applied to the main supermarkets, with
estimated average ratios applied to other shops. Table 6.10 shows the total
average turnover in each catchment at average levels, based on this
method.
Page 34 of 68East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Table 6.10 East Dunbartonshire convenience floorspace and turnover at average and actual levels
from the survey in 2013 (in 2012 prices)
Floorspace sq m Turnover Turnover
gross net £ per sq m £million
Zone 1
Bearsden Town Centre 885 595 5.1
M&S Simply Food (total 636 sq m gross) 636 445 10,234 4.6
Other town centre shops 249 149 3,900 0.6
(1) ASDA, Milngavie Rd (total 9,535 sq m gross- 60% conv) 5,721 3,433 12,055 41.4
Lidl, Baljafray (total 894 sq m gross-90% conv) 805 603 4,045 2.4
Other Bearsden out of centre shops 2,286 1,372 3,100 4.3
Total at average levels 9,697 6,002 53.2
Over-trading 4% 2.1
Total from survey (actual levels) 55.3
Zone 2
Milngavie Town Centre 7,112 4,411 38.9
Tesco- Gavin's Mill Rd (total 5,539 sq m gross 73% conv) 4,043 2,426 10,209 24.8
M&S Simply Food (total 1,590 sq m gross 90% conv) 1,431 1,002 10,234 10.3
Other town centre shops 1,638 983 3,900 3.8
Other Milngavie shops 887 532 3,100 1.6
Total at average levels 7,999 4,943 40.5
Over-trading 18% 7.3
Total from survey (actual levels) 47.8
Zone 3
Bishopriggs Town Centre 3,722 1,890 21.8
Morrisons, The Triangle (3,815 sq m gross-90% conv) 3,434 1,717 12,289 21.1
Other town centre shops 288 173 3,900 0.7
ASDA Kirkintilloch Road (total 6,104 sq m gross-70% conv) 4,273 2,564 12,055 30.9
M&S Simply Food, Strathk R Park (1,880 sq m gross-90% conv) 1,692 1,184 10,234 12.1
Tesco Express, Kirkintilloch Rd 329 247 15,945 3.9
Other Bishopriggs out of centre shops 2,388 1,433 3,100 4.4
Total at average levels 12,403 7,317 73.2
Over-trading 1% 1.1
Total from survey (actual levels) 74.2
Zone 4
Kirkintilloch Town Centre 7,402 4,441 40.7
Tesco- Regent Centre (total 3,012 sq m gross-95% conv) 2,861 1,717 10,209 17.5
Sainsbury's,Shamrock St (total 3,668 sq m gross 85% conv) 3,118 1,871 10,606 19.8
Other town centre shops 1,423 854 3,900 3.3
Other Kirkintilloch shops 1,170 702 3,100 2.2
Lenzie 1,036 622 3,100 1.9
Twechar 131 79 3,100 0.2
Total at average levels 9,739 5,844 45.0
Over-trading 4% 1.8
Total from survey (actual levels) 46.9
Zone 5
Lennoxtown 1,165 699 3,100 2.2
Milton of Campsie 242 145 3,100 0.5
Torrance 240 144 3,100 0.4
Total at average levels 1,647 988 3.1
Under-trading -26% -0.8
Total from survey (actual levels) 2.3
Total East Dunbartonshire 41,486 25,094 215.0
Over-trading 5% 11.5
Total from survey (actual levels) 226.5
Note
Gross floorspace provided by the Council, based on the Assessor- 2012
(1) The total gross floorspace of ASDA is 11,246 sq m (Assessor). In this table, the loading bay area (1,711 sq m) has been
excluced. Net floorspace- estimates by R MacLean. Estimate for Tesco Milngavie from PPC.
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