EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANTI-LOCK BRAKING SYSTEMS ON MOTORCYCLE SAFETY IN AUSTRALIA - by Brian Fildes Stuart Newstead Matteo Rizzi ...
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EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS
OF ANTI-LOCK BRAKING SYSTEMS ON
MOTORCYCLE SAFETY IN AUSTRALIA
by
Brian Fildes
Stuart Newstead
Matteo Rizzi
Michael Fitzharris
Laurie Budd
September 2015
Report No. 327
II EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
Report No. Date ISBN ISSN Pages
327 September 2015 0732623979 1835-4815 (online) 49
Title and sub-title:
Evaluation of the effectiveness of Anti-Lock Braking Systems on motorcycle safety in Australia
Author(s):
Brian Fildes, Stuart Newstead, Matteo Rizzi, Laurie Budd, and Michael Fitzharris
Sponsoring Organisation(s):
Australian Government Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development and VicRoads
Abstract:
This study sets out to assess the benefits of ABS technology fitted to motorcycles, classification,
LC>125cc (no scooters with engine cylinder capacity exceeding 50ml and/or a maximum speed
exceeding 50km/h), using Australian crash data, to compare these findings with published international
research, and to estimate the likely benefits in reduced crashes and injuries in the years ahead.
Importantly, the findings showed that the presence of ABS on these motorcycles resulted in a 33%
reduction in all injuries in relevant crash types and a 39% reduction in severe injuries in these crashes.
The benefits varied depending on the type of crash, whether it was a single or multi-vehicle crash,
occurred at an intersection, and whether the road was wet or not. There was good consistency in these
findings across the various Australian states and similar international findings. Consequently there are
marked savings in fewer fatalities as well as severe and minor injuries in these crashes and even further
reductions are predicted over the next 10 years. It is predicted that these savings would be enhanced by
efforts to increase the fitment rate of ABS on all new LC motorcycles in the coming years. The rate of
fitment could be accelerated by mandating the fitment of ABS technology for all new LC>125cc
motorcycles with associated reductions in crashes and severe injuries.
Key Words: Disclaimer
crash, injury outcome, reversing camera, data, This report is disseminated in the interest of
feasibility, motorcycle anti-lock brakes, information exchange. The views expressed
motorcycle linked brakes here are those of the authors, and not
necessarily those of VicRoads or the Department
of Infrastructure and Regional Development or
Monash University.
Reproduction of this page is authorised.
Monash University Accident Research Centre,
Building 70, Clayton Campus, Victoria, 3800, Australia.
Telephone: +61 3 9905 4371, Fax: +61 3 9905 4363
www.monash.edu.au/muarc
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE III
IV EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA
PREFACE
Project Manager / Team Leader:
Professor Brian Fildes
Associate Professor Stuart Newstead
Research Team:
• Matteo Rizzi
• Ms Laurie Budd
• Assoc. Prof. Michael Fitzharris
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank the Commonwealth Department of Infrastructure and Regional
Development and VicRoads for commissioning this study and for their generous support of the research
program.
Folksam Insurance in Sweden was agreeable to Matteo Rizzi joining the program and spending time in
Australia for which we are also most grateful.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE V
VI EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
ABS Anti-lock Braking Systems Moped LA or LB category vehicle
ASC Automatic Stability Control MUARC Monash University Accident Research Centre.
BITRE Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Non-ABS A motorcycle without ABS technology.
Regional Economics
Bikes Motorcycles Non- Crashes where ABS technology is unlikely to
sensitive influence the crash outcome.
CBS Combined Braking Systems NSW The state of New South Wales, Australia.
DIRD Department of Infrastructure and Regional Off-road A motorcycle designed to travel off a sealed
Development roadway.
EU European Union QLD The state of Queensland, Australia.
HLDI Highway Loss Data Institute RVCS Road Vehicle Certification System database.
IIHS Insurance Institute for Highway Safety SA The state of South Australia
KSI Killed and Seriously Injured Scooter LC category vehicle with an automatic
transmission (not manual or clutch-less), and a
‘step through’ construction type (as defined by
VicRoads)
LA Australian Design Rule category for a 2- Sensitive Crashes where ABS technology is expected to
wheeled motor vehicle, not being a power- crases influence the crash outcome.
assisted pedal cycle, with an engine cylinder
capacity not exceeding 50 ml and a maximum
speed not exceeding 50 km/h; or a 2-wheeled
motor vehicle with a power source other than
a piston engine and a maximum speed not
exceeding 50 km/h
LB Australian Design Rule category for a 3- VicRoads State Government Authority responsible for
wheeled motor vehicle, not being a power- efficient and safe travel on roads in Victoria.
assisted pedal cycle, with an engine cylinder
capacity not exceeding 50 ml and a maximum
speed not exceeding 50 km/h; or a 3-wheeled
motor vehicle with a power source other than
a piston engine and a maximum speed not
exceeding 50 km/h
LC Australian Design Rule category for a 2- VIN Vehicle Identification Number assigned to all
wheeled motor vehicle with an engine registered vehicles
cylinder capacity exceeding 50 ml or a
maximum speed exceeding 50 km/h
LC125 LC category 2-wheel vehicle with engine YoM Year of vehicle manufacture
capacity greater than 125cc
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE VII
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... 1
METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 1
ABS OVERALL EFFECTIVENESS ......................................................................................................... 1
MOTORCYCLE CRASH TYPES FOR ABS EQUIPPED BIKES AGAINST NON ABS EQUIPPED BIKES ....... 1
FLEET SIZE AND MARKETING TRENDS.............................................................................................. 2
CRASH AND INJURY BENEFITS.......................................................................................................... 2
ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS ................................................................................................... 2
CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................................................................. 3
1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 4
1.1 MOTORCYCLES ......................................................................................................................... 4
1.2 OTHER BRAKING TECHNOLOGIES ............................................................................................ 4
1.3 THE MOTORCYCLE PROJECT..................................................................................................... 5
2. PROJECT METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................... 6
2.1 ABS/CBS EFFECTIVENESS.......................................................................................................... 6
2.2 DETAILED ANALYSES................................................................................................................. 7
2.3 MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF ABS ON FUTURE CRASHES ........................................................ 7
3. RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 8
3.1 ABS DATA IN AUSTRALIAN STATES........................................................................................... 8
3.2 SENSITIVE AND NON-SENSITIVE CRASH TYPES ...................................................................... 11
3.3 EFFECTIVENESS OF ABS AND CBS IN MOTORCYCLE CRASHES IN AUSTRALIA........................ 12
3.4 EFFECTIVENESS FOR ALL MOTORCYCLE CRASHES ................................................................. 13
3.5 OTHER FINDINGS.................................................................................................................... 13
3.5.1 Fatality and Survivable Injury Outcomes ..................................................................... 13
3.5.2 Motorcycle type and bike age ..................................................................................... 14
3.5.3 Rider age group and sex .............................................................................................. 14
3.5.4 Crash type and road condition .................................................................................... 15
3.5.5 Speed Zone and Helmet Use........................................................................................ 16
3.5.6 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................... 16
3.6 MARKETING AND ROAD SAFETY ............................................................................................ 17
3.6.1 New vehicles entering the market............................................................................... 17
3.6.2 The Number under RVCS Listing ................................................................................. 17
3.6.3 Numbers with ABS and CBS in the fleet....................................................................... 17
3.6.4 Market Expectations .................................................................................................... 17
3.6.5 Accelerated Growth ..................................................................................................... 18
4. OVERALL BENEFITS OF ABS .................................................................................... 20
4.1 FATAL AND SERIOUS INJURY CRASHES (VICTORIA)................................................................ 20
4.2 FATAL AND SERIOUS INJURY CRASHES (AUSTRALIA) ............................................................. 21
VIII EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA
4.3 FATAL AND SERIOUS INJURY BENEFITS .................................................................................. 24
4.4 SOCIETAL COST SAVINGS (AUSTRALIA) .................................................................................... 26
4.5 SOCIETAL BENEFIT COSTS (AUSTRALIA) ................................................................................. 26
4.6 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 27
5. GENERAL DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................... 28
5.1 EFFECTIVENESS OF ABS (AND CBS) TECHNOLOGIES FOR MOTORCYCLES ............................... 28
5.1.1 ABS Relevance for Motorcycle Crash Types .................................................................. 28
5.2 FLEET SIZE AND MARKETING TRENDS...................................................................................... 28
5.3 CRASH AND INJURY BENEFITS.................................................................................................. 29
5.4 STUDY LIMITATIONS ................................................................................................................ 29
5.5 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................ 30
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 31
APPENDIX A – EXTRACTS FROM HLDI (2013)................................................................................. 32
APPENDIX B – DCA CHARTS USED IN THIS ANALYSIS..................................................................... 33
APPENDIX C – PROJECTION MODELLING ....................................................................................... 46
APPENDIX D – PROJECTED CRASHES UNAFFECTED BY LC>125CC ABS MODELLING ..................... 49
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE IX
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study sets out to address a number of objectives related to the use of ABS (Anti-lock Braking
Systems) technology as a safety feature on LC category motorcycles with an engine capacity greater
then 125cc. In particular, it examined the effectiveness of ABS in reducing motorcycle crashes and
injuries to motorcyclists, both in Australia and within an international context, and the relevance and
effectiveness of motorcycle ABS to specific crash types.
In addition, the project sought to identify future trends of motorcycle and ABS fitment growth and the
likely benefits in terms of future injury savings and what the economic cost of the technology is
expected to be. While it was hoped that the analysis would also include the benefits of CBS (Combined
Braking Systems), limited fitment of this technology in the vehicle fleet precluded this task.
Methodology
The project involved a statistical analysis of national road crash data as well as trend data in vehicle sales
and ABS fitment for motorcycles. The Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) was used to identify LC
motorcycles with the technology fitted and this proved to be somewhat challenging, given the different
forms of the recording of VIN adopted in this country. Statistical modelling was also undertaken for
predicting future trends based on past and current figures, requiring a number of assumptions.
It was assumed that ABS would be effective for various crash configurations which excluded head-on,
overtaking, U-turning, entering and leaving a parking place, collision with a fixed object and cutting in
collisions. These crashes were labelled as “non-sensitive” crashes. All other crash types were
considered to be sensitive crashes where ABS was expected to be of benefit. The effectiveness analysis
involved Induced Exposure measures to help minimise the effects of confounding factors.
ABS Overall Effectiveness
The overall analysis found that ABS technology on LC>125 motorcycles (no scooters) resulted in a 33%
reduction in all injury crash severities and a 39% reduction in severe injury crashes for sensitive crashes.
This translates to a 31% benefits across all motorcycle crashes in Australia. For the few cases where ABS
and CBS were identified together, the effectiveness rose slightly to 44%1. The effectiveness was further
shown to vary depending on single or multi-vehicle crashes, at intersections, and whether the road was
wet or not. These findings were roughly equivalent with other published international results.
Motorcycle Crash Types for ABS equipped bikes against non ABS equipped bikes
There were differences in terms of crash type between motorcycles fitted with ABS or not. Those with
ABS had slightly fewer intersection crashes and crashes on curves but slightly more rear-end crashes.
These findings were not particularly strong and probably influenced by the selection of what was
considered to be an ABS sensitive crash type.
Other findings showed some differences between motorcycles with and without ABS by the type of LC
motorcycle (sport touring and touring in particular), the age group of the rider, and the speed zone
where the crash occurred. It is likely, however, that some of these findings may be subject to other rider
influences, such as personality and motivation of the rider. There were no differences between these
two groups in terms of helmet use. It was not possible to break these figures down by sealed and
unsealed roads as these categories were not consistent across these databases.
1
44% was obtained from data interrogation rather than from induced exposure regression, due to the size of the
dataset.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 1Fleet Size and Marketing Trends The project also called for identifying and predicting the future fleet size of ABS and likely future trends in marketing and ABS fitment rates in Australia. Using registration figures of LC motorcycles dating back to 1998, it was possible to predict the future trend of registrations for the next 10 years. The study team felt that beyond that, it was not really possible as there are likely to be major changes in motorcycle types, consumer interest (especially if ABS fitment becomes mandatory) and general shifts in the whole vehicle industry. The predicted growth trend for the number of Australian registered motorcycles was a general increase of around 4.7% annually (Australian Bureau of Statistics) of which the proportion of LC>125cc motorcycles was around 62%. In 2014 the five year average annual growth in new LC>125cc vehicles with ABS was 17%. As the proportion of new LC motorcycles with ABS in 2015 is still quite a modest proportion of new vehicle sales (approximately 20%), all-age vehicle fleet fitment is still not likely to rise above 20% by 2025 according to modelled projections of current new-vehicle fitment rates. This might suggest the need for intervention to help accelerate these trends. Crash and Injury Benefits Given the difficulty experienced in VIN identification in most Australian states, the analysis necessitated the use of the more reliable figures of ABS fitment in Victoria for predicting the benefits in all Australian states and territories. Trends targeted what the benefits would be if the current increase in ABS fitment was to occur annually, taking into account predicted increases of LC motorcycles over the last 10 years, fitment rates of ABS, and likely crashes and injury savings up until 2025. The analysis revealed that if increases in ABS fitment trends continue at current rates, it is expected that there would be a net reduction of 643 injury crashes between now and the year 2025 with expected injury savings of 22 fatalities, 345 serious injuries and 367 minor injuries. These savings could be accelerated by introducing legislation for mandatory fitment of ABS in all new LC>125cc motorcycles. Depending on when such legislation could be introduced, it could lead to an additional 60% reduction over current predicted trends in injury crashes and associated fatalities, and in serious and minor injuries. As the average life of an LC motorcycle is currently around 22 years, these savings would be considerably greater beyond 2025, assuming there are no major changes in vehicle registration patterns and consumer demand. Achieving these savings will come at a cost of ensuring all motorcycles LC>125cc are produced with anti- lock brakes as standard equipment. The European parliament mandated compulsory fitment of ABS on motorcycles 125cc and above by 2016. In their cost-benefit-analysis, they used a figure of 500 euros per motorcycle, based on manufacturer’s costs. This has been disputed by others who argued that suppliers’ figures (based on what the cost to manufacturers would actually be by suppliers) of 150 euro was more realistic. It seems reasonable, therefore, to assume that the actual cost to OEMs for fitment of ABS technology on all LC>125cc motorcycles would be 150 euros (approx. A$220). Assumptions and Limitations Studies of this kind are typically limited in a number of ways. The lack of any consistent available data across the states (especially VIN number irregularities) led to assumptions of what the current situation is regarding motorcycle crashes and ABS fitment in Australia. These really need to be validated if possible in future analyses. In addition, in estimating future trends, it was necessary to make the assumption that the LC motorcycle environment in future will follow current patterns. This is quite a broad assumption as demand for new motorcycles with ABS is quite unknown. For instance, if legislation 2 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA
were to be introduced mandating ABS, this could possibly lead to significant changes in supply and
demand.
Conclusions
The findings of the effectiveness of ABS in preventing crashes and injuries identified substantial benefits
for LC>125cc motorcyclists from fitment of this technology to their machines. The analysis found that
ABS resulted in a 33% reduction of all injuries in sensitive crash types and a 39% reduction in severe
injuries in these crashes. These findings were in line with other published international results. In
association with these savings, there are expected to be marked savings in fewer fatalities as well as
severe and minor injuries. These savings would be enhanced by efforts to increase the fitment rate of
ABS on all new LC motorcycles over the coming years.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 31. INTRODUCTION
Anti-lock Braking Systems (ABS) were developed many years ago and became a popular fitment on
passenger cars during the early 1980s. ABS is a closed-loop braking system that prevents wheel lock
during braking resulting in improved vehicle stability and steering and potentially reduced stopping
distance. ABS uses speed sensors on both wheels to accurately determine wheel speed, as well as
sensors to determine when a wheel is about to lock. Since its introduction, ABS technology has been
acclaimed as providing significant improvement in braking performance for passenger cars and
consequently reducing crash risk, yet the evidence to support these claims is thin and equivocal at best
(Burton et al, 2004). Evans (1998) reported a reduction of 32% in striking the vehicle ahead offset by an
increase in being struck from behind by 30%. Burton and his colleagues found a reduction in multi-
vehicle rear-end and head-on collisions, but an increase in the number of single-vehicle and rollover
crashes. They claimed that its greatest benefit is in improving injury reductions by diverting injurious
crashes into less-injurious ones.
1.1 Motorcycles
The effectiveness of ABS in reducing crash risk for motorcycles may be quite different to passenger
cars, given that motorcycles have only 2 wheels and are inherently less stable. Swedish research by
Matteo Rizzi and his colleagues (Rizzi et al, 2009; 2014) revealed significant crash reduction benefits for
ABS on motorcycles in Europe from 34% to 39% for all injury crashes and 42% to 48% for severe crashes
using real-world crash analysis. From insurance data, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS
2008) reported considerable benefits for Antilock Braking Systems (ABS) at reducing crashes and injuries
among motorcyclists in the USA. Benefits of up to a 34% reduction in the number of crashes and
significant reductions in injury claims have been reported. These authors have shown that antilock
brakes are more beneficial on motorcycles than they are on cars because they make the bikes more
stable by reducing wheel lockup preventing falling or overturning during braking.
These studies show considerable promise for ABS technology to substantially improve motorcycle
safety. While these studies have been carried out in Europe and the USA, no equivalent studies were
found showing the likely effectiveness of ABS on Australian motorcycles and roads. Such a study would
help in determining the need for ABS to be fitted on all new motorcycles sold in this region and show a
direct comparison of effectiveness with the overseas reports. Moreover, as there is little evidence of
how these benefits accrue, it would also be useful to examine the characteristics of motorcycle crashes
in Australia.
1.2 Other Braking Technologies
More recently, other new braking technologies have been introduced for motorcycles. BMW have
announced that their S1000R motorcycle is fitted with Race ABS and ASC (automatic stability control) as
standard equipment. They claim that these technologies are integral for optimum deceleration, provide
clear feedback in the hand lever to detect threshold range, can be deactivated while riding, are ultra-
light systems and virtually maintenance-free, ensure optimum acceleration on all road surfaces, and
together, are perfectly interconnected, and that their regulation response is very simple to adapt via the
standard road/rain riding modes (BMW Motorrad USA, 2014).
Honda, too, have looked into enhanced braking systems for their motorcycles, combining
controllability, convenience and the sense of confidence for the average rider (Honda 2014). First, they
developed a combined brake system (CBS) for their motorcycles, and then an anti-lock brake system
4 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA(ABS). Furthermore, they claimed that in developing CBS and ABS, they were able to introduce both
together as a way of enhancing their respective effects.
The Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) (2013) reported on the benefits of these systems based on US
claims analysed using insurance data. Their analysis involved reductions in claims frequency, injury
severity and overall losses for a range of 36 motorcycles involving 427,878 claims (see Appendix A). They
reported reductions in overall losses for ABS alone on motorcycle crashes in the US at 20.3 percent and
for ABS and CBS of 34.2 percent.
While these reductions in motorcycle crashes are impressive, nevertheless, the focus of this
Australian research will predominantly emphasise ABS on motorcycles as the introduction of CBS and
ASC (automatic stability control) technologies is new and not that widespread in this country to date. It
would be useful, however, to include any potential benefits from Combined Braking Systems in this
research where possible.
1.3 The Motorcycle Project
The project has a number of objectives:
• To examine the effectiveness of ABS and where possible CBS technology to reduce motorcycle
crashes and injuries to motorcyclists, both in Australia and within an international context;
• To examine the relevance of motorcycle ABS to specific crash types and the effectiveness of ABS
in reducing relevant crash types, as well as account for the use of CBS, particularly on smaller
motorcycles, if possible;
• To identify fleet size of ABS and CBS and predict likely future trends in marketing and road
trauma in Australia;
• To identify the likely benefits in terms of injury savings and what the economic cost of the
technology is expected to be; and
• Prepare a report on the findings of the study, including a recommendation on the likely future
of advanced braking technologies and how best to evaluate their likely safety benefits for
motorcyclists in Australia.
The Australian Design Rules categorises motorcycles in Australia as either:
• LA (mopeds up to 50cc);
• LB (A 3-wheeled motor vehicle, not exceeding 50cc and a maximum motor cycle speed not
exceeding 50km/h); and
• LC (A 2-wheeled motor vehicle with an engine cylinder capacity exceeding 50cc or a maximum
motor cycle speed exceeding 50 km/h).
While it would be desirable to identify ABS effectiveness of motorcycles by ADR category and engine
capacity, this will depend on the numbers of crash cases available for the analysis. It is highly unlikely
that ABS for motorcycles is fitted to mopeds in this country. Where possible, the effectiveness of ABS
alone and in combination with CBS will be separated in the analysis. In addition, the effectiveness of
ABS on motorcycles in Australia will be compared with published international figures to show relative
rates to help guide future interventions.
This project is a jointly-funded collaboration between the Commonwealth Department of
Infrastructure and Regional Development (DIRD) and VicRoads (Victoria).
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 52. PROJECT METHODOLOGY
A number of methodologies were used in this analysis, combining descriptive comparisons of available
crash and motorcycle population data with statistical models. Importantly, in judging effectiveness,
induced exposure methods were employed for statistical rigor and for comparison with other
international findings.
A comprehensive national database from five Australian states (Victoria, NSW, QLD, WA and SA) was
compiled for use in this analysis. In addition, other data including Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS
2014) census data for registered vehicles and VIN analysis (MUARC, 2015) were accessed for modelling
future trends and likely benefits. These latter data were necessary to identify what motorcycles had or
did not have ABS technology.
2.1 ABS/CBS Effectiveness
In assessing the likely effectiveness of ABS, a statistical analysis was carried out using odds-ratio
calculations and an induced exposure approach, as in previous studies (Rizzi et al, 2009; 2014). With this
approach, the key point is to identify at least one crash type or situation in which ABS can reasonably be
assumed not to be effective (control). If the only noteworthy difference in terms of crash risk is ABS, the
relation between motorcycles with and without ABS in that non-sensitive situation would be considered
as the true exposure measure. This means that any deviation from the relation in non-sensitive
situations is considered to be a result of ABS, as shown below.
A ABS A non− ABS
R= ÷ (Eq. 1)
N ABS N non−ABS
Where:
AABS = number of crashes sensitive to ABS, involving motorcycles with ABS
A non −ABS = number of crashes sensitive to ABS, involving motorcycles without ABS
NABS = number of crashes non-sensitive to ABS, involving motorcycles with ABS
N non−ABS = number of crashes non-sensitive to ABS, involving motorcycles without ABS
Thus, the effectiveness in reducing sensitive crashes can be expressed as:
Esens = 100× (1− R)% (Eq. 2)
Analyses also included estimation of the induced exposure injury and KSI crash risk associated with ABS
using Poisson regression analysis with a Pearson over-dispersion correction. The regression analysis
included adjustment for the motorcycle speed (by two zone limit categories: under 80 km/hr or
≥80km/hr) and the differences associated with jurisdictions. Analyses were repeated for all and severe
injury crashes on wet roads, at intersections and involving multiple vehicles. Data proved insufficient in
power to produce effect estimates for single vehicle crashes under this modelling.
In undertaking this analysis, it is important to identify the sensitive and non-sensitive crash types that
ABS is predicted to influence. Sensitive crashes are those such as a motorcycle striking a passenger car in
the side or rear-end where the ABS would be expected to either mitigate the severity of the crash or
avoid it altogether. Non-sensitive crashes are those where little benefit is expected such as a head-on
crash where braking is less likely to occur in time to have any real effect. Using this approach, an
estimate of motorcycle effectiveness in Australia was then computed and compared with previous
reports.
6 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA2.2 Detailed Analyses
Given sufficient cases, the effectiveness analysis can also be broken down by extra factors such as the
rider’s age and sex, relevant crash types, and severe to less severe crash outcomes. This helps to identify
riders and crash vulnerable factors for intervention, and provides additional information for use in other
follow-up studies, i.e., cost-benefit analysis (see Appendix B).
2.3 Modelling the effects of ABS on future crashes
Registration and crash datasets up to 2014 were available for modelling the effects of ABS in reducing
future crashes in this state. Only crash data with registration plate records matching those in the
registration snapshots and only registration data with valid VINs, registration plates and years of
manufacture were included in this analysis. VINS were needed to match datasets, uniquely identify
vehicles and determine the motorcycle type and ABS status.
Modelling was carried out for vehicles aged up to 22 years beyond their manufactured year. For each
crash/registration year and each age of vehicle from 0 to 22 years, unique vehicles and their crashes
were counted. From this, proportions of registered vehicles, proportions of ABS fitment in registered
vehicles and total registered motorcycle fleet size were projected (see Appendix C). Mopeds and
scooters did not have ABS fitted. Scrappage for the fleet was estimated by keeping the vehicle age
distribution by type constant at the distribution average for 2013 through 2014 (Appendix C). Vehicles
fitted with ABS were assumed not to be scrapped, since they are relatively new and the time projected
is relatively short. The ABS proportion of older vehicles at the end of the projected time is small, so
failure to meet this assumption is likely to have no significant effect. In addition crash risks by type,
crash year and vehicle age were calculated and averaged over the past five years to use in projecting
injury, serious injury and other injury crashes. Crashes were projected with the 2014 ABS proportion of
new vehicle across all years, with the ABS proportion in new vehicles projected to increase from logistic
regression projections depicted in Appendix C for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively and a mandate on
new vehicles thereafter. Injuries from injury crashes were calculated using average injuries (of type) per
crash type from combined jurisdiction crash data.
For this analysis motorcycle types (Off road, LA, LC>125CC road and not a scooter, and LC ≤125CC),
engine capacity and Australian Design Rule Grouping (ADG) code were identified for all vehicles with a
year of manufacture beyond 2003. Estimations needed for vehicles with a 2003 or earlier year of
manufacture were carried out as follows: type was estimated as off-road if the vehicle was VTYPE
purpose built or OUTFIT and ADG was estimated as LC unless capacity was less than 50 or VTYPE was a
scooter. Scooters with an engine capacity greater than 125CC were not included in any group since none
of these were fitted with ABS in the data.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 73. RESULTS
There were no LA mopeds or LC ≤ 125cc motorcycles fitted with ABS in the crash data. Of those with an
engine capacity >125cc, there were none manufactured prior to 1989. Thus, the analysis focussed on LC
motorcycles with a greater than 125cc and greater than 1988 year of manufacture.2
3.1 ABS Data in Australian States
To undertake the tasks listed above, it was necessary to put together national police data from as many
Australian states as possible. The Centre is currently assembling a 2012 edition to the current vehicle
crashworthiness database comprising data from Victoria, NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and
South Australia since 2000. These data comprise more than 90% of all road crashes that occur in
Australia annually. As there have been difficulties in securing some data for 2012, the analysis will
concentrate on ABS and CBS crash performance from 2000 to 2011 to expedite the project.
Tables 1 to 5 show the distribution of cases with ABS, and those without ABS, based on an analysis of
the 11 years of data available from these five Australian states.
Table 1: Australian ABS Sensitive Motorcycle Crashes of 2000- 2011 by Jurisdiction - All Crashes
South
New South Wales Victoria Queensland‡ Western Australia
Australia
ABS Sensitive Crashes Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
All crashes 26,857 2,437 N/A** N/A** 17,083 1,109 14,301 887 8,501 344
All injury crashes 24,501 2,185 21,957 1,910 16,700 1,085 9,523 378 6,248 258
Valid All injury 698 68 4,845 378 3,181 212 1,098 42 1,123 49
crashes*
With ABS status 278 23 1,336 122 1,158 60 373 9 317 15
identified
No ABS Injury † 238 17 1,133 96 1,021 50 333 9 243 12
ABS Injury † 40 6 203 26 137 10 40 0 74 3
No ABS KSI † 238 17 483 53 595 29 107 3 76 7
ABS KSI† 40 6 80 16 78 6 16 0 23 2
*Valid VIN, year of manufacture and capacity
** Non-injury crashes are not reported in official crash statistics in Victoria
†Valid with ABS status identified (NSW injury crashes assumed serious)
‡
incomplete 2011 data
2 In addition, only motorcycle data with a valid VIN could be adequately identified, and only those with ABS status identified
could be used in the analysis. A valid VIN consisted of at least 11 of the appropriate alpha-numeric characters.
8 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIATable 2: Australian ABS Sensitive Motorcycle Crashes during 2000-2011 - No Injury Crashes by engine capacity,
year of manufacture and jurisdiction*
New South Wales Queensland Western Australia South Australia
Crash Sensitive to ABS Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Engine Capacity ≤125 cc
Valid VIN and valid YOM 3 0 5 0 186 22 47 2
Unknown engine capacity
No valid VIN 1,947 214 176 6 2,518 238 443 19
No valid YOM 332 30 194 9 1,683 149 373 19
No valid VIN and YOM 271 29 76 6 1,569 137 280 17
Valid VIN and valid YOM 271 29 129 13 1321 179 1235 38
Engine Capacity >125 cc
No valid VIN - - - - - - - -
No valid YOM 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 0
Valid VIN and valid YOM 73 8 54 2 638 57 432 25
*Victoria does not record non-injury crashes in their database
Table 3: Australian ABS Sensitive Motorcycle Crashes during 2000-2011 - All Injury Crashes by engine capacity, year
of manufacture and jurisdiction
New South Wales Victoria Queensland West. Australia South Australia
Crash Sensitive to ABS Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Engine Capacity.
≤125 cc
No valid VIN - - - - - - - - - -
No valid YOM - - 1 - - - - - 1 -
valid vin and YOM 59 7 383 25 550 27 432 13 220 4
Unknown capacity
No valid vin 20,410 1,810 3,778 382 4,458 333 4,959 237 1,435 73
No valid YOM 4,688 433 3,755 403 5,495 393 2,973 157 1,241 65
No valid VIN & YOM 4,114 385 2,489 289 4,457 333 2,735 148 965 54
Valid VIN and YOM 2,751 250 11,675 1,011 7,465 452 2,793 77 3,193 121
Engine Cap. >125 cc
No valid vin - - 1 - - - - - - -
No valid YOM 9 2 8 - 8 1 3 - - -
No valid vin and no
- - - - - - - - - -
valid YOM
valid VIN and YOM 698 68 4,845 378 3,181 212 1,098 42 1,123 49
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 9Table 4: Crash Severity for Motorcycle Injury Crashes of 2000-2011 by jurisdiction
New South Western South
Wales* Victoria Queensland Australia Australia
Sensitive to ABS Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Severity of Injury
Fatal 615 163 460 141 536 110 289 52 195 26
Serious Injury 9,935 955 8,956 598 3,706 163 1,848 115
23,886* 2022*
Minor Injury 11,562 814 7,208 377 5528 163 4,205 117
*New South Wales do not differentiate between serious and minor injury in their database
Table 5: Crash Severity for known ABS status Motorcycle Injury Crashes of 2000-2011 by jurisdiction
New South Western South
Wales* Victoria Queensland Australia Australia
Sensitive to ABS Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Severity of Injury
With ABS
Fatal 3 0 2 0 3 2 0 0 1 1
Serious Injury 78 16 75 4 16 0 22 1
37 6
Minor Injury 123 10 59 4 24 0 51 1
Without ABS
Fatal 4 2 17 9 33 6 2 1 7 1
Serious Injury 466 44 562 23 105 2 69 6
234* 15*
Minor Injury 650 43 426 21 226 6 167 5
* New South Wales do not differentiate between serious and minor injury in their database
These findings show that over all states, 15% (10%-23%) of motorcycles involved in injury crashes with
ABS status known and a valid VIN, year of manufacture YPOM and an engine capacity >125 CC were
equipped with ABS. In addition, it was also possible to assess ABS with and without CBS, where 45%
(17% -58%) of ABS motorcycles that crashed (in injury crashes with valid VIN, YOM and >125CC) were
also fitted with CBS technology. Killed and Serious Injury (KSI) crashes on average comprised 48% (34%-
57%) of injury crashes from jurisdictions excluding NSW (where serious injuries could not be
distinguished), while crashes at intersections accounted for 42% (39%-50%) of all injury crashes. It
should be noted that there were many instances when it was not possible to identify whether the
vehicle had ABS or not in the relevant motor cycle crashes, but this seemed unlikely to have any marked
influence on the findings for most states, apart from NSW where the absence of VIN was more evident
compared to the other states.
The distribution of ABS and Non-ABS motorcycles used in the analysis of ABS effectiveness is shown in
Table 6 below. Not all motorcycle crashes were relevant and many were excluded if they were not
represented motorcycle categories (there were no cases for LA mopeds or LC motorcycles with an
engine capacity ≤ 125cc), if they were not matched cases to those with ABS, or where ABS could not be
identified from the VIN. This meant that only 4% of all injury motorcycle crashes were used in the
analysis.
10 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIATable 6: Crashed motorcycles available for the ABS Effectiveness Analysis
Make ABS - Cases Percent Non-ABS Cases Percent
Aprilia 0 0% 7 0%
BMW 402 75% 513 16%
Honda 83 15% 1,144 36%
Kawasaki 14 3% 314 10%
Suzuki 33 6% 867 28%
Triumph 5 1% 181 6%
Yamaha 2 0.4% 113 4%
MBK 0 0% 13 0.4%
TOTAL 622 100% 3,556 100%
3.2 Sensitive and Non-Sensitive Crash Types
In using induced exposure methods, it is necessary, when assessing the effectiveness of ABS and CBS
technologies, to identify crashes where these technologies are likely to work or not. These are called
sensitive (technology design should operate in these crash types) and non-sensitive (technology unlikely
to work in these crash types). This was done using a group consensus approach and examining the
Definition of Crashes (DCA) records from each state. For example, non-sensitive crash types for ABS
technology using Victorian DCAs included head-on, manoeuvring and some overtaking crash types. The
DCA coding sheets for the 5-states showing the individual codes used in the analysis for sensitive and
non-sensitive crash types are included in Appendix B to this report. Also in Appendix B are frequency
tables for all motorcycle and all injury motorcycle crashes tabled for each crash type code by
jurisdiction. The results showing the sensitive and non-sensitive crash numbers for ABS fitted
motorcycles are shown in Table 7, along with injury crash numbers for ABS and ABS+CBS motorcycles.
Table 7: Number of motorcycle sensitive and non-sensitive crash types with ABS and injury crashes
with ABS and/or CBS from the 5-states in Australia (2000 to 2011)
New South Western South
Wales Victoria Queensland Australia Australia
Crash Sensitive to
ABS Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
All Crashes 26,857 2,437 21,961 1,910 17,083 1,109 14,301 887 8,501 344
Valid Injury crash
ABS+CBS 6 2 87 12 78 7 17 0 33 2
ABS Only 34 4 116 14 59 3 23 0 41 1
No ABS
+CBS 11 1 119 7 32 3 28 0 12 0
no CBS 227 16 1014 89 989 47 305 9 231 12
The results in Table 7 show that 93% of the ABS motorcycle injury crashes occurred in those judged to
be sensitive crash types for the technology (NOT head-on, NOT manoeuvring and some overtaking crash
types). The equivalent figures for all crashes with and without injury (shown in Table 1) were also 93%.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 113.3 Effectiveness of ABS and CBS in Motorcycle Crashes in Australia
The effectiveness analysis of the 3,691 available ABS and non-ABS vehicle crashes across Australia
between 2000 and 2011 is shown in Table 8 below, along with published international comparisons.
With the exception of the ABS+CBS result, Australian effectiveness estimates are derived from the
Poisson regression analysis. The findings show point-value estimates from the analysis as well as 95th
percentile values. From these figures, it is possible to calculate the statistical significance of these
values, assuming a pΧ 2
SWE ESP IT
Effective Confidence
ABS (all Injury crash) 33% (19-45)3.4 Effectiveness for all Motorcycle Crashes
The previous section focus on the effectiveness of ABS for motorcycles in sensitive crash types (those
crashes for which ABS was expected to be beneficial). Table 9 below shows the proportions of sensitive
and non-sensitive crashes (with and without injury) and what the benefits would be for all motorcycle
crashes (both sensitive and non-sensitive crash types).
Table 9: Proportions of sensitive and non-sensitive crashes and effectiveness for all motorcycle crashes
Effectiveness Effectiveness
Crash Type All crashes Injury crashes
Sensitive crashes All crashes
Sensitive 88,703 78,929
33% 30.7%
Proportion - sensitive 93% 93%
Total – Sensitive and
95,390* 84,745*
non-sensitive crashes
* Figures from Table 1 on page 13
3.5 Other Findings
A number of other findings for ABS and non-ABS fitted motorcycles are shown below.
3.5.1 Fatality and Survivable Injury Outcomes
Comparison of ABS effectiveness among fatal and all injury cases is shown in Table 10. Over 2000 to
2011 48% of all injuries to motorcycle riders in crashes in Australia (excluding NSW) were fatal or severe
injuries. These proportions varied across the states (from 34% in SA to 57% in QLD) probably reflecting
differences between the data bases and coding differences in each of the states. The proportion of
motorcycles fitted with ABS in fatal and serious injury crashes, to all injury crashes, was remarkably
similar across the 5 states.
Table 10: Motorcycle KSI and all injuries from 5-states in Australia (2000 to 2011) for ABS and controls
NSW VIC QLD WA SA TOTAL
Crash Crash Crash Crash Crash
Crash Sensitive
Comparison5 Sensitive to Sensitive to Sensitive to Sensitive to Sensitive to
to ABS
ABS ABS ABS ABS ABS
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Total KSI 563 69 673 35 123 3 99 9 1,458 116
KSI with ABS 80 16 78 6 16 0 23 2 197 24
KSI without
483 53 595 29 107 3 76 7 1,261 92
ABS
Total injuries 278 23 1,336 122 1,158 60 373 9 317 15 3,462 229
Injuries with
40 6 203 26 137 10 40 0 74 3 494 45
ABS
Injuries
238 17 1,133 96 1,021 50 333 9 243 12 2,968 184
without ABS
5
= Severe and fatal injuries, and all injuries for crashes with ABS and without (controls)
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 133.5.2 Motorcycle type and bike age
Table 11: Motorcycle type and model years for ABS and Non-ABS motorcycles in injury crashes (2000-2011)
ABS Motorcycles Non-ABS Motorcycles
Motorcycle Type
Count Percent Median MY Count Percent Median MY
Naked 80 15% 2003 736 23% 2005
On/Off Road 155 29% 2004 603 19% 2004
Sport/Touring 69 13% 2005 1393 44% 2001
Touring 232 43% 2001 398 13% 2000
Others/unknown 3 1% 2006 22 1% 1998
Total 539 100% 2003 3152 100% 2002
The findings in Table 11 show that there were differences in the percentage of motorcycles fitted with
or without ABS (especially sport-touring and touring) with similar median model year ranges. This most
probably reflects differences in the way sport-touring and touring motorcycles are coded in each state.
These differences, however, are unlikely to make much impact on the effectiveness outcome.
3.5.3 Rider age group and sex
Table 12 shows the rider’s age and sex distribution for ABS and Non-ABS crash cases listed on the states’
injury crash databases. Of interest, those riders crashing on an ABS fitted bike tended to be slightly older
than similar controls (15% c.f. 35% at 34years) whereas riders of non-ABS fitted control motorcycles had
a more general and wider age distribution. Males overwhelmingly dominated riders of motorcycles in
the crash databases (95% c.f.5%), with practically no differences across both groups of motorcycles.
Table 12: Motorcycle rider’s age group for ABS and Non-ABS motorcycles in injury crashes (2000-2011)
ABS Motorcycles Non-ABS Motorcycles
Riders Age Group
Count Percent Cum % Count Percent Cum %
≤15 years 1 0% 0% 1 0% 0%
16-24 years 12 2% 3% 262 8% 8%
25-34 years 65 13% 15% 815 26% 35%
35-54 years 331 64% 80% 1671 54% 88%
55-64 years 79 15% 95% 288 9% 98%
65-74 years 23 4% 99% 63 2% 100%
75+ years 3 1% 100% 7 0% 100%
Total 514 100% 100% 3107 100% 100%
14 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIA3.5.4 Crash type and road condition
Table 13: Crash type for ABS and Non-ABS motorcycles in injury crashes (2000-2011)
ABS Motorcycles Non-ABS Motorcycles
Crash Type
Count Percent Count Percent
Intersection 164 30% 1055 33%
Rear-end crash 78 14% 354 11%
Single vehicle - straight 75 14% 460 15%
Single vehicle - curve 72 13% 495 16%
Other 40 7% 295 9%
Head-on 25 5% 98 3%
Manoeuvring 20 4% 108 3%
Turning 17 3% 108 3%
U-turn 17 3% 61 2%
Animal on road 12 2% 38 1%
Overtaking 11 2% 58 2%
Vulnerable Road User 8 1% 22 1%
TOTAL 539 100% 3,152 100%
Crash types in Table 13 have been assigned in an exclusive manner with the hierarchy assigning multi-
vehicle crashes before single vehicle crash types, in this order: rear-end, head-on, overtaking, U-turn,
other manoeuvring, other intersection, turning, vulnerable road user (pedestrians and bicycles), animal
on the road, single vehicle curve, and then single vehicle curve. The results show that the top 5-crash
types account for 80% of all crashes with ABS motorcycles and 84% of motorcycle crashes without ABS.
There were slight differences between motorcycles fitted or not fitted with ABS. This further confirms
the importance of having ABS fitted to motorcycles as a likely cost-effective intervention, given that
these crash types captured the bulk of the sensitive crashes in the effectiveness analysis.
Table 14: Road condition in injury crashes for ABS and Non-ABS motorcycles (2000-2011)
ABS Motorcycles Non-ABS Motorcycles
Road Conditions
Count Percent Count Percent
Dry road 441 82% 2,739 87%
Wet road 93 17% 370 12%
Unknown 5 1% 43 1%
TOTAL 539 100% 3,152 100%
The findings in Table 14 for road condition at the time of the crash shows that the majority of crashes
occurred on dry roads and that while there was a higher proportion of ABS fitted motorcycle crashes on
wet roads, this is unlikely to be of any real concern in the analysis. It was not possible to break these
figures down by road finish (sealed or unsealed) as these conditions were unreliable in some datasets.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 153.5.5 Speed Zone and Helmet Use
Tables 15 and 16 show the findings for speed zone in which the crash happened and whether the rider
was wearing a helmet or not. Unfortunately, it was only possible to analyse helmet wearing using
Victorian data as these details were not freely available in the other states databases.
Table 15: Speed zone of the crash site for ABS and Non-ABS motorcycles in injury crashes (Victoria, 2000-2011)
ABS Motorcycles Non-ABS Motorcycles
Speed Zone
Count Percent Count Percent
30-40km/h 10 2% 54 2%
50km/h 56 10% 391 12%
60km/h 214 40% 1,309 42%
70km/h 28 5% 203 6%
80-90 km/h 68 13% 381 12%
100 plus km/h 139 26% 675 21%
Unknown 24 4% 139 4%
TOTAL 539 100% 3,152 100%
The results in Table 15 reveal two peaks in the distribution; one at 60km/h and a second at 100km/h
suggesting a difference between urban and rural crashes in Victoria. Assuming urban crashes occur
between 30km/h and 60km/h and rural crashes between 70km/h and 100km/h and above then it is
apparent that there are roughly equal numbers of crashes in urban and rural areas and with slightly
fewer urban crashes (52% c.f. 56%) for motorcycles fitted with ABS.
Table 16: Helmet wearing for ABS and Non-ABS motorcycle riders in injury crashes (Victoria, 2000-2011)
ABS Motorcycles Non-ABS Motorcycles
Helmet Use
Count Percent Count Percent
Helmet worn 448 83% 2,605 83%
Helmet not worn 3 1% 32 1%
Not appropriate 2 0% 4 0%
Not known 86 16% 511 16%
TOTAL 539 100% 3,152 100%
Table 16 reveals that the vast proportions of motorcyclists in Victoria, both with and without ABS or CBS,
were wearing their helmet at the time of the crash.
3.5.6 Summary of Findings
The findings from this analysis of Australian motorcycle crashes between 2000 and 2011 found that ABS
(with and without CBS) provides a benefit in injury reductions of 33%, ranging from 19% to 45%, with
higher benefit in the more severe injury outcomes of 39% (21% to 53%) for sensitive crash types. Given
a 93% predominance of ABS fitted motorcycles, the overall fleet benefit for all motorcycles crashes was
still a substantial 31%. Moreover, these findings are reasonably consistent with figures published in
16 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIAEurope, and slightly higher than US equivalents. While there were some differences observed between
the motorcycles and rider distributions across the states and between those fitted with ABS and CBS in
these crashes, these effects were not expected to have had much influence on the effectiveness
outcome reported here, given the use of induced exposure in the calculations.
3.6 Marketing and Road Safety
Objective 3 was to identify fleet size of ABS and CBS and predict likely future trends in marketing and
road trauma in Australia. Specifically, to identify the number of new vehicles that enter the market, the
number of these under the Commonwealth’s RVCS database, the number of new vehicles entering the
market with ABS or CBS fitted, and what are expected in the coming years. These are discussed
separately below.
3.6.1 New vehicles entering the market
The project brief calls for the number of new motorcycles that currently enter the market. Trend data
were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014), showing motorcycle registrations from
1998 to 2013, with an average increase in the Australian motorcycle fleet over this period of 4.86%.
These results are shown in Table 16.
3.6.2 The Number under RVCS Listing Table 17: Motorcycle fleet size Australia
1998-2013 (source: ABS 2014 & FCAI 2013)
The number of certified motorcycle models under the FCAI new
Percent road, off-roa d
Commonwealth’s RVCS representing these vehicles was also Yea r Number
Increase a nd scooter
computed from the Federal Government statistics. The RVCS sa les
1998 335,000
system allows vehicle manufacturers to electronically certify
1999 340,000 1.50%
that the vehicles they supply to the Australian market meet 2000 342,000 0.60%
the Australian Design Rules (ADRs). It was not possible to 2001 351,000 2.60%
reliably identify ABS or CBS fitment for motorcycles, both 2002 370,000 5.40%
categories LA and LC, from the RVCS data. Consequently it was 2003 377,000 1.90%
2004 399,000 5.80%
not possible to compute precisely how many vehicles in the
2005 422,000 5.80%
fleet had ABS/CBS fitted from this data source. 2006 466,983 10.70%
2007 511,966 9.60%
3.6.3 Numbers with ABS and CBS in the fleet
2008 567,569 10.90% 114,289
2009 624,090 10.00%
95,618
An analysis of the number of new vehicles that are currently
2010 660,107 5.80% 86,899
supplied to the market with ABS or CBS fitted was computed 2011 678,790 2.80% 86,639
using the crash data proportions applied to motorcycle 2012 709,288 4.50% 92,267
registrations outlined above. An estimate of the number of 2013 744,732 5.00% 92,215
new vehicles that are expected to be supplied to the market
over the next ten years was also computed from these data. These figures are shown in Table 18a (p.
24).
3.6.4 Market Expectations
The project brief also called for an estimate of the likely number of new motorcycles with ABS and/or
CBS over the next 30 years. Given the obvious difficulty in predicting so far ahead in an environment of
emerging and changing motorcycle technologies, a predicted 10-year trend from 2015 to 2025 was
computed using various data available.
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 17140,000
Observed Projected
120,000
100,000
LC>125cc road, not a scooter
Registrations
80,000
LC off road
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Registration Year
Figure 1: Past and future trends of motorcycles listed on the Victorian Vehicle Register (vehicles aged 0-22 only)
The upper BLUE line shows the observed (2004-2014) and predicted growth (2015-2025) in all LC >125cc
motorcycles (not including scooters), while the lower BLUE line shows those with ABS over the same
period. The predicted growth in both all LC>125cc motorcycles (no scooters) and those with ABS were
derived from the modelling described earlier. Predicted growth figures show what is expected with only
natural growth in current fitment rates for ABS technologies. Figure 1 shows that while there is some
expected reduction in the gap between expected new motorcycles and those likely to be fitted with
ABS, it is at best only a modest improvement or gap reduction expected over the next 10 years, based
on current fitment rates.
3.6.5 Accelerated Growth
As noted above, the predicted “natural” increase in fitment of ABS by motorcycle manufacturers is not
expected to be overwhelming over the coming 10 years. By mandating ABS fitment, manufacturers of
this category of motorcycles (LC >125cc) would be required to fit this technology, and this gap would be
reduced as a result. If, for instance, legislation could be introduced by say 2018 to this effect, then
obviously all new motorcycles of this category after 2018 would have a zero gap in fitment. It would
however, have any little effect on the predicted trends for the other motorcycles shown in Figure 1.
18 EVALUATION OF MOTORCYCLE ABS IN AUSTRALIAIt should be remembered, though, that with 100%
an average vehicle service life of 22 years, it 90%
will take some time until which the full 80%
effects in reduced crashes will be apparent. 70%
60%
Current crash figures for motorcycles show
50%
that 50% of crashes are for motorcycles less
40%
than six years old, with a long tail showing 30%
95% of crashes are for vehicles less than 23 20%
years. This will help ensure that the benefits 10%
flow through more quickly than a linear 0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
increase in benefits from the technology.
For ease of calculation, however, it was Figure 2: Cumulative distribution of motorcycle crashes
assumed that the cumulative distribution (source: VicRoads 2015)
was close to linear as this was not expected
to make much of an effect on the modelling process to follow in the next chapter. Further research is
warranted in later years to confirm this assumption.
There are little data available on the suitability of fitting ABS to all motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters of
all categories. Obviously, if this is technically feasible, the advantages of ensuring all motorcycles enjoy
the ABS benefits shown earlier would be greater. However, for this report, the widespread use of ABS
for motorcycles (LC >125cc) was the immediate focus.
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