Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global

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Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Commodity

April 2022

  Russia turns to energy   China’s modern energy   US states outline   War prompts power
     buyers in Asia            systems plan        emissions goals      market rethink

Energy security
in the spotlight
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
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Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Contents April 2022

                                                                                                                       22

                                                                          08                                         38                                                                            56                                                     75
8 Eye on the goal(s)                                             32 Energy security vs climate policies                                 52 US renewables capture prices                                  75 Dropping off the generation mix
In the US, 23 states have aggressive clean energy plans          Surging energy prices and geopolitical tensions have pushed            Transmission and storage could help offset                       Coal-fired generation’s share in the US power mix
either signed into law, written in executive orders or set       the Biden administration to rethink its approach to domestic oil       renewables price cannibalization, reducing                       is expected to drop by more than half in 2027
by the governor                                                  and gas production                                                     revenue volatility                                               from 2021 levels

16 Lessons from a fatal winter storm                             38 Evolving climate ambitions                                          56 Offshore wind gathers steam                                   80 Clean energy capacity growth
More than a year since the Texas February freeze, regulators     Several electric utility companies in the US have started to           Capacity building in US offshore wind power has                  When it comes to building utility-scale clean energy
map out short- and long-term solutions to prevent another        include Scope 3 in their net-zero goals, paving the way for            momentum on its side, with the sector creating                   capacity in the US, Texas and California are taking
massive blackout                                                 others to follow                                                       jobs and economic opportunities                                  the lead

22 Experimental blends                                           42 Asia-bound Russian supplies                                         62 Looming lithium deficit                                       88 Delays in development

Power utilities in the US explore using hydrogen blending in     Russia is accelerating its drive to redirect export flows to           The lithium industry may be facing a structural                  Will the US hit net-zero targets amid expensive shipping and
natural gas turbines, with a goal of fully replacing gas with    customers in Asia and replace the US dollar in its energy              supply-demand imbalance following years of drought               logistical issues stemming from geopolitical tension and
hydrogen by midcentury                                           trading activities                                                     in investments                                                   pandemic-linked challenges?

26 Hydrogen’s import potential                                   46 Redesigning Europe’s energy market                                  68 China’s unconventional approach to transition
The high costs of hydrogen production in Europe have producers   Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU Member States             After facing price and supply challenges, China’s policymakers
looking to other regions for imports                             were already looking to challenge the status quote in gas              place energy security at the core of the country’s
                                                                 and power market                                                       energy transition

4 Commodity Insights                                                                                                       April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                 Commodity Insights 5
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Editor’s Note                                                                                                                                                                                           Explore Insights
                         Just as many parts of the world seemed to be learning to live with COVID-19,                                                                                                  Our website spglobal.com/commodityinsights contains an extensive selection of free news, videos, podcasts
                         commodity markets got hit by another set of challenges early this year.                                                                                                       and special reports about energy and commodities. Here’s a small selection of recent highlights

                         Energy prices were already on an uptrend, fired up by the brewing tensions between
                         Russia and Ukraine. The escalation to a full-blown war, with Russia’s invasion of
                         Ukraine on February 24, sent prices even higher.

                         Conflict and sanctions are now forcing stakeholders in the commodities space
                         to take a hard look at their prior assumptions about global energy supply. In a
                         world of growing risks and uncertainties, how do governments, industry majors
                         and policymakers strike a balance between ensuring energy security and
Barbara Lorenzo Caluag   energy transition?

Editor
                         Meghan Gordon highlights this challenge, looking at how the US might adjust its
                         approach to energy transition as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis (page 32).                                                                                                      Interactive                                                                                                                                                                             Deep-dive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Periodic Table of Oil                                                                                                                                                                   Oil Security Sentinel
                         Several US states have already drawn up plans to accelerate clean energy goals, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Now on its fourth edition, the interactive Periodic Table
                         latest of which is Maryland, whose Climate Solutions Now Act of 2022 takes effect                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              There were 13 attacks on Gulf oil and energy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                of Oil features new crude grades, carbon intensity
                         on June 1. Kassia Micek outlines the key goals of US states as well as the challenges                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          infrastructure in Q1 alone, up from nine in the same
                                                                                                                                                                                                                values, a significant redesign and new functionality
                         in achieving such goals (page 8), while Brandon Mulder and Kate Winston focus on                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               period last year. Energy security has also come into
                                                                                                                                                                                                                to help customers plan and make more informed
                         efforts by key utilities and companies to hit net-zero targets (page 38).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      sharper focus following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
                                                                                                                                                                                                                decisions in rapidly changing volatile markets.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        on February 24. We continue to explore the changing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Read more
                         The war has also driven up the cost of hydrogen production. James Burgess discusses                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            relationship between risk and the price of crude in the
                         viable pathways and import potential (page 26), and you can find a snapshot of                       Platts hydrogen price wall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        latest edition of the Oil Security Sentinel. Read more
                         S&P Global Commodity Insights’ global hydrogen pricing, leading to our interactive                   Larger panels represent higher prices. Prices in $/kg.
                                                                                                                              Below is a selection of S&P Global Platts hydrogen assessments showing regional price differences and month-on-month changes. Early trade potential is emerging as technologies and regions compete to produce the cheapest
                                                                                                                              low-carbon hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by renewables or from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage.

                         hydrogen price wall.                                                                                 Gulf/ALK             NoCal/PEM NoCal/SMR                                 Ned/ALK      Ned/PEM            Ned/SMR+                    NSW/ALK               NSW/PEM          QLD/ALK                 Jap/ALK                             Key

                                                                                                                                                                                   Mid/ALK
                                                                                                                              2.93                 4.56                1.58                                                            8.89                        4.64                  6.31             6.9                         12.89
                                                                                                                                                                                                       17.47        20.71
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       WA/ALK        Area/pathway
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2.67          Mar-22 avg price
                                                                                                                                                                      Gulf/SMR
                                                                                                                              Gulf/PEM                                 1.23                                                                                                                                                                                                          Pathway symbol

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Price watch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Price direction

                         Meanwhile, China is taking a different approach to energy transition by looking for
                                                                                                                              3.91
                                                                                                                                                                      Mid/PEM                                                                                      NSW/COAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3.92                                   QLD/COAL
                                                                                                                                                                      2.98                                                                                                                                                                                            Production pathway

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Hydrogen Price Wall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4.1

                         solutions that do not necessarily mean avoiding fossil fuels altogether, to minimize                 Mid/SMR        NE/PEM                           NoCal/ALK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ned/ATR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10.03
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jap/PEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      15.68
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      PEM electrolysis

                                                                                                                                                                    NE/SMR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Alkaline electrolysis

                         risks to the country’s energy security (page 68).
                                                                                                                               1.21          5.31                             3.41                                                                                 QLD/PEM                  VIC/ALK       WA/ALK     WA/PEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7.01                     3.04          2.67       4.03                                             ATR + CSS
                                                                                                                              NE/ALK

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 A selection of Platts hydrogen assessments by S&P Global Commodity Insights,
                                                                                                                              4.09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SMR + CSS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SMR without CSS

                         In this edition, we also carry several infographics to give a taste of our data
                                                                                                                                                                     NW/ALK
                                                                                                                                                                     2.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          WA/SMR+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 showing regional price differences and month-on-month changes. Early
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Coal gasification + CSS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 trade potential is emerging as technologies and regions compete to produce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   VIC/LIG        VIC/PEM                 6.79                                                        Lignite gasification + CSS

                         visualization highlights, exploring topics from Russian crude flows (page 44), to the                NW/PEM       Rock/ALK                           SE/ALK                   UK/ALK               UK/PEM                                 3.24           4.46
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jap/SMR

                                                                                                                                                                  Rock/SMR
                                                                                                                              3.57         2.75                               3.06                     18.54                21.94                                                                                                     6.89                            Producing region

                         looming deficit in lithium supply (page 65).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            the cheapest low-carbon hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ←less change

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      United States
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         more change→

                                                                                                                                           Rock/PEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Om/ALK     Om/PEM                      Qat/PEM     SA/ALK   SA/PEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 renewables or from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. Read more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              UAE/ALK    UAE/PEM      Asia-Pacific

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Qat/ALK
                                                                                                                                           3.73                    SE/PEM                                                                                          3.58       4.66                        3.55        3.23     4.26           4.51       5.74
                                                                                                                                                                   4.08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Europe
                                                                                                                              NW/SMR

                         Finally, a warm welcome to those of you who are joining S&P Global as the Global                      1.24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Middle East

                                                                                                                                       SoCal/ALK                UMW/ALK

                         Power Markets Conference returns as an in-person event. I hope this edition of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Scan here to explore and filter
                                                                                                                              SE/SMR

                                                                                                                                       3.13                     3.44                                                                                                                                                                                                  through production pathways
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Qat/SMR+                                                             and producing regions.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            UK/SMR+                                                              6.89                 SA/SMR+

                         Commodity Insights magazine will be a useful resource as you navigate the ever-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            13.72                                  Om/SMR+
                                                                                                                                                                                                       UK/ATR                                                                                                         6.93
                                                                                                                                                                UMW/PEM                                                                                            6.97                                                                       UAE/SMR+

                                                                                                                                                                                             UMW/SMR
                                                                                                                              SoCal/PEM             SoCal/SMR   4.55                                   8.46                                                                                                                                   7.03
                                                                                                                               4.23

                         changing energy markets.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Big picture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Platts Infographics
                                                                                                                              Notes: Prices are month average cost-of-production assessments, including capex. European prices include carbon costs for SMR and ATR assessments. Prices for the Netherlands and UK are converted to $/kg from assessments in Eur/kg
                                                                                                                              and GBP/kg. Rank: 1 = lowest price. Darker shade means greater month-on-month price move.
                                                                                                                              Developed by James Burgess and Henry Edwardes-Evans. Designed by Reynaldo Dizon.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                In a collection of visualization projects, S&P Global Commodity Insights’
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                wealth of data does the storytelling to illustrate some of the most significant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                developments in commodity markets. Read more

6 Commodity Insights                                                                                             April 2022                                                                            April 2022                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Commodity Insights 7
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Advancing clean
                energy goals
                More than 20 states in the US have set aggressive clean energy
                plans, while 11 still have no state-wide goals. Kassia Micek
                writes about regional pushbacks and the lack of a federal plan

8 Commodity Insights                                                             April 2022   April 2022   Commodity Insights 9
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Advancing clean energy goals

S
      tate-level clean energy goals                             state aspire to at this point. Maryland is now the only
      continued to evolve as seven                              state to have its ambitious target enshrined in law
                                                                when the act takes effect June 1.
      states raised or set clean
energy targets in 2021, but so far                              After a similar bill failed in 2021, Maryland legislators
in 2022 Arizona regulators shot                                 pared back a provision requiring all new buildings in
down stronger goals and a push by                               the state to be equipped with electric heating and
Virginia Republicans to repeal the                              appliances starting in 2023. Instead, the law directs
                                                                the state Building Code Administration to develop
state’s clean energy law failed.
                                                                recommendations on how to electrify buildings and
                                                                instructs state regulators to assess how such changes
Most of the 11 states with no statewide goal are in             will affect the grid.
the Southeast, and it is unlikely these states will take
action on clean energy goals in the near term.
                                                                Virginia goal
“The political will isn’t there in any of these states,” said
 Matt Williams, emissions and clean energy analyst              A Virginia Senate committee February 28 stopped
 at S&P Global Commodity Insights.                              legislation that would repeal the state’s clean energy                   generate electricity” by December 31, 2045, under the        “I suspect some northeastern states will continue their
                                                                law. House Bill 118 was “passed by indefinitely” in                      Virginia Clean Economy Act.                                   gradual push to hit their emissions reduction/clean
Nebraska’s three utilities have set goals to achieve            a 12-3 vote by the state Senate Committee on                                                                                           energy targets,” Williams said.
net-zero emissions by 2050. The boards of Nebraska              Commerce and Labor.                                                      Dominion must procure 100% of its electricity from
Public Power District, Omaha Public Power District                                                                                       renewable resources by 2045, with up to 5,200 MW of          For instance, New York’s Scoping Plan could result
and Lincoln Electric System are elected by the public,          The Virginia House of Delegates voted 52-48 on                           offshore wind in service by 2035. Appalachian Power          in more complementary policies and perhaps even
essentially making Nebraska the first Republican-led            February 15 to send House Bill 118 to the Democratic-                    must meet the renewables benchmark by 2050.                  new legislation, such as the Climate and Community
state to set decarbonization plans, despite any action          controlled state Senate, where it encountered                                                                                         Investment Act, but Williams said he does not
from the legislature or governor.                               opposition. The bill was introduced in January by                        House-backed bills that will withdraw Virginia from          see anything particularly new regarding changes
                                                                Republican Delegate Nicholas Freitas to essentially                      the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative carbon                to overall goals.
Twenty-three states have aggressive clean energy                repeal the Virginia Clean Economy Act and its                            cap-and-trade program and delay adoption of
plans either signed into law, written in executive order        decarbonization goals.                                                   vehicle emissions standards also appear unlikely to          A federal clean energy plan is unlikely, although a tax
or through aspirational goals set by the governor,                                                                                       advance in the Senate.                                       credit extension is possible, Greenberg said.
according to a collection of data from S&P Global. The          Democrats hold a 21-19 majority in the state Senate,
remaining states have some form of clean energy                 but are at risk of losing majority in the 2023 elections                                                                              There is support in the US House of Representatives
plan on the books.                                              when all 40 seats are on the ballot, Williams said.
                                                                                                                                         Arizona actions                                              and Senate for an electric industry clean energy tax
                                                                                                                                                                                                      package that includes tax credits for a wide range of
                                                                The Virginia Clean Economy Act, signed into law by                       Ending years of discussion, the Arizona Corporation          technologies. In November 2021, the US House passed
Maryland law                                                    former Democratic Governor Ralph Northam in April                        Commission voted 3-2 in late January to reject a             the roughly $2 trillion Build Back Better Act along
                                                                2020, established that 16 GW of solar and onshore                        package of rules that would have required electric           party lines. But the legislation has hit a wall in the
Maryland lawmakers recently approved the Climate                wind, including 100 MW of rooftop solar, is in the                       utilities to get all of their power supply from carbon-      evenly divided Senate, where all GOP lawmakers and
Solutions Now Act of 2022, which requires the state to          public interest. The act replaced the state’s voluntary                  free resources by 2070.                                      Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat-West Virginia, have
slash greenhouse gas emissions 60% by 2031 from                 renewable portfolio standard with mandatory annual                                                                                    opposed the bill.
2006 levels and to hit an economywide net-zero target           benchmarks that would eventually require electricity                     In May, regulators also voted down a similar proposal
in 2045 after the state’s Republican governor declined          suppliers to produce 100% of their electricity from                      that would have required utilities to receive all of their   “It seems like tax credits are the only way forward
to veto the bill.                                               renewable sources.                                                       power from carbon-free resources by 2050.                     in terms of legislation,” Williams said, adding the
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Biden administration is developing rules of their own,
Governor Larry Hogan remains the only Republican                Dominion Energy Inc. subsidiary Dominion Energy                          “The Republican majority on ACC believes that mandate         particularly a new power sector emissions regulation
governor to join the US Climate Alliance, a group of            Virginia – known legally as Virginia Electric and Power                   will raise rates and utility voluntary targets are           is expected. However, there is a US Supreme Court
states committed to “real, impactful, on-the-ground             Co. – and American Electric Power Co. Inc. utility                        sufficient,” said Morris Greenberg, senior manager of        case – West Virginia versus EPA – that could really scale
action” to tackle climate change.                               Appalachian Power Co. must “retire all other electric                     North American power analytics at S&P Global.                back Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to
                                                                generating units located in the Commonwealth that                                                                                      regulate CO2 emissions. 
The new law puts Maryland on par with California in             emit carbon as a byproduct of combusting fuel to                         It is unlikely there will be stronger clean energy
having a 2045 statewide net-zero goal, which no other                                                                                    goals in the state.

10 Commodity Insights                                                                                                       April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                        Commodity Insights 11
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Advancing clean energy goals                                                                                                                                                                                            Advancing clean energy goals

Nearly half of US states have aggressive goals to cut GHG, add renewables

     State renewable power and
     greenhouse gas (GHG)
     emissions reduction targets
             Aggressive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ME
             Moderate                                                                                                                MT ND
                                                                                      WA
             Minor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       VT
             No goal                                                                                                                                                                                              NY
                                                                                                                                           SD                                                                               NH
                                                                                                                WY
                                                                                 OR ID                                                                                                                                                MA
                                                                     CA N                                                                                                MN                                             CT
                                                                          V
                                                                                                                                          NE                       IA         WI                                             RI
                                                                                                   UT                                                                                          MI            PA
                  PACIFIC                                                                                                                                                           IL
                                                                                                                                                                                         IN    OH                            NJ
                  OCEAN                                                                                              CO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             DE
                                                                                                                                                                        MO                                                   MD
                                                                                                                                                 KS
                                                                                                                                                                                                   KY   WV                        DC
                                                                                             AZ                                                                                                            VA
                                                                                                                  NM                                                                                     NC
                                                                                                                                           TX                      OK               TN
                                     AK                                                                                                                                 AR
                                                                                                                                                                                                        SC                       ATLANTIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  OCEAN

                                       0     300 mi                                                                                                                      LA
                                                                                                                                                                                              AL         GA
                                                                                                                                                                               MS
                                                                                                                                                                                                        FL                       P.R.

                                              HI                                                                                                                              Gulf of Mexico

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0             250 mi
Data as of April 2022
*Nebraskans elect the boards of state utilities and effectively set their GHG goals.
Source: S&P Commodity Insights, EIA, National Conference of State Legislatures, other associated sources for individual states and territories

12 Commodity Insights                                                                                                        April 2022               April 2022                                                                  Commodity Insights 13
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Advancing clean energy goals                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Advancing clean energy goals

State goals for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and renewable energy
                                                                                                                        Wind, solar                                                                                                                                                Wind, solar
State            Ultimate goal                        Status                                                            generation        State                 Ultimate goal                            Status                                                                    generation
                                                                                                                        market share                                                                                                                                               market share

Alabama          No goal                                                                                                    0%                                                                            Surpassed (2007); governor discussed carbon neutrality by 2030
                                                                                                                                          North Dakota          10% renewables by 2015 (voluntary)                                                                                      34%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          goal (voluntary)
Alaska           50% renewables by 2025               Established by House Bill 305 (2010)                                   2%
                                                                                                                                          Ohio                  8.5% renewables by 2026                   RPS target lowered (2019)                                                      3%
Arizona          15% renewables by 2025               REST (2006); ACC rejected 100% clean power plans (2021, 2022)          8%
                                                                                                                                          Oklahoma              15% renewables by 2015                    Legislature established goal (2010), goal exceeded                            40%
Arkansas         No goal                                                                                                     1%
                                                                                                                                                                Reduce GHG 100% by 2040 from
California       100% carbon-free power by 2045       Legislation last updated with SB 100 (2018)                           25%           Oregon                                                          Legislature passed HB 2021 (2021)                                             18%
                                                                                                                                                                1990 level
Colorado         100% clean energy by 2050            Governor signed SB 19-236 into law (May 2019) for Xcel Energy         29%           Pennsylvania          18% renewables by 2021                    Alternative energy portfolio standard (2004)                                   2%
                 100% carbon-free power by 2040                                                                                                                                                           Governor signed executive order (2020); House passed net-zero
Connecticut                                           Governor signed executive order (2020)                                 1%           Rhode Island          100% renewables by 2030                                                                                                  6%
                 (aspirational)                                                                                                                                                                           bill (2021)
Delaware         40% renewables by 2035               Governor signed legislation raising RPS (2021)                         2%           South Carolina        2% renewables by 2021 (voluntary)         Legislature authorized (2014)                                                  2%
Florida          No goal                                                                                                     4%           South Dakota          10% renewables by 2015 (voluntary)        Legislation established (2008); some providers noted barriers                 52%
Georgia          No goal                                                                                                     4%           Tennessee             No goal                                                                                                                  0%
Hawaii           100% renewables by 2045              RPS mandate (2015); first 100% renewable RPS in nation                13%           Texas                 10,000 MW by 2025                         Mandate adopted (1999), Surpassed (2009)                                      23%
Idaho            No goal                                                                                                    19%           Utah                  20% renewables by 2025                    RPS adopted (2008) for electric utilities                                     10%
Illinois         100% clean energy by 2050            Legislation signed by governor (2021)                                 10%           Vermont               80% below 2005 levels by 2050             RES adopted (2015); Global Warming Solutions Act (2020)                       24%
                                                      Legislation (SB251) created Clean Energy Portfolio Standard                         Virginia              100% carbon-free power by 2045*           Governor signed into law (2020); SB 851; HB 1526                               3%
Indiana          10% renewables by 2025 (voluntary)                                                                          9%
                                                      (2011)
                                                                                                                                          Washington state      100% carbon-free power by 2045            RPS updated (2019)                                                             9%
Iowa             No goal                                                                                                    55%
                                                                                                                                          Washington, DC        100% renewables by 2032                   RPS updated (2019)                                                            12%
                                                      Legislation (SB91) changed RPS from a standard to voluntary
Kansas           20% renewables by 2020 (voluntary)                                                                         45%           West Virginia         No goal                                   Repealed RPS in 2015                                                           2%
                                                      (2015)
Kentucky         No goal                                                                                                     0%           Wisconsin             100% carbon-free power by 2050            Governor executive order set goal (2019)                                       3%

Louisiana        Net-zero emissions by 2050           Governor signed executive order (2020)                                 0%           Wyoming               No goal                                                                                                                 19%
                                                                                                                                         Sources: S&P Global Commodity Insights, EIA, ACP, CESA, National Conference of State Legislatures, individual state agencies
Maine            100% renewables by 2050              Legislation signed by governor to increase RPS (2019)                 25%
                                                                                                                                         * for Dominion only; 2050 for Appalachian power
Maryland         Net-zero emissions by 2045           Climate Solutions Now Act of 2022 takes effect June 1                  3%          **NPPD board approved commitment in December 2021; OPPD, LES approved net-zero goals in 2020. Nebraskans elect the boards of the state’s three utilities

Massachusetts    Net-zero emissions by 2050           Governor signed climate change legislation into law (2021)            10%
                 Economy-wide carbon neutral by
Michigan                                              Governor signed executive order to create plan (2020)                  7%
                 2050
                                                                                                                                                     Definitions
                 100% carbon-free power by 2040
Minnesota                                             Governor’s policy plan (2021)                                         24%
                 (aspirational)                                                                                                             RPS                                  Acronym for “Renewable Portfolio Standard,” which typically is a goal for renewable
Mississippi      No goal                                                                                                     1%                                                  power generation
Missouri         15% renewables by 2021 (IOUs)        Renewable Energy Standard approved by voters (2008)                    8%
                                                                                                                                            Net-zero emissions                   A balance between all emissions produced and the emissions removed from the
Montana          15% renewables by 2015               Goal enacted (2005) for investor-owned utility, retail supplier       12%
                                                                                                                                                                                 atmosphere; often interchangeable with “carbon neutral”
Nebraska         Net-zero emissions by 2050**         NPPD, OPPD, LES set net-zero goals (2021)                             25%
Nevada           100% carbon-free power by 2050       Adopted in 1997, updated in SB 358 (2019)                             16%             Carbon neutral                       Some emissions are generated but are equally offset somewhere else to make
                                                                                                                                                                                 overall emissions zero
New Hampshire    25.2% renewables by 2021             RPS established (2007)                                                 3%
New Jersey       100% carbon-neutral power by 2050    Governor unveiled Energy Master Plan (2020)                            2%             100% clean energy                    Energy that produces no GHG emissions
New Mexico       100% carbon-free power by 2045       Last updated in Energy Transition Act (2019)                          34%
                 100% carbon-free power by 2040                                                                                             100% renewables                      All energy from renewable energy sources
New York                                              Governor signed into law (2019)                                        4%
                 (aspirational)
                                                                                                                                            100% carbon-free power               Electricity generation that does not emit CO2
North Carolina   Carbon-neutral power by 2050         Clean Energy Plan recommendations (2019)                               8%

14 Commodity Insights                                                                                                       April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                                     Commodity Insights 15
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Texas grid reliability in focus

                                     Texas grid reliability
                                     in focus
                                     Over a year since the deadly winter storm that crippled Texas’
                                     power system, regulators continue to work out solutions to prevent
                                     widespread power outages in the future. By Mark Watson

                                                                                                 ERCOT north hub summer and winter forwards

                                     E
                                           xperts differ regarding the summer                    120
                                                                                                       ($/MWh)
                                                                                                                                                                Jul-22
                                          2022 and winter 2022-23 pricing                                                                                       to Aug-22
                                           effects of Texas regulators’ work                     100
                                     with the Electric Reliability Council of
                                     Texas (ERCOT) to implement short-term                        80
                                                                                                                                                                Jan-23
                                                                                                                                                                to Feb-23
                                     market reforms for grid reliability.
                                                                                                  60

                                     The Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas approved
                                     in December 2021 a “blueprint” for market redesign           40
                                                                                                       Dec-21           Jan-22           Feb-22              Mar-22
                                     intended to satisfy mandates in Senate Bill 3, an omnibus
                                                                                                 Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
                                     ERCOT market reform bill signed into law in June. The
                                     blueprint contained a Phase I covering reforms that could
                                     be implemented relatively quickly and a Phase II covering   systemwide offer cap (HCAP) from $9,000/MWh to
                                     more comprehensive, longer-term changes.                    $5,000/MWh – have already been implemented.

                                     The Texas Legislature enacted Senate Bill 3 and             Firm fuel product
                                     other changes in response to the widespread power
                                     outages that resulted from the deadly mid-February          The establishment of a type of ancillary service known
                                     2021 winter storm.                                          as a “firm fuel product” is considered a key effort which
                                                                                                 ERCOT plans to have in place for winter 2022-23, and
                                     Several of the Phase I efforts – e.g., allowing Emergency   which Giuliano Bordignon, a power market analyst at
                                     Response Service to be deployed before an Energy            S&P Global Commodity Insights, said is “the first real
                                     Emergency Alert is declared and lowering the high           milestone” of market reforms.

16 Commodity Insights   April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                    Commodity Insights 17
Energy security in the spotlight - Commodity April 2022 - S&P Global
Texas grid reliability in focus                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Texas grid reliability in focus

ERCOT March 10 released an updated survey of the            ERCOT’s existing firm fuel generation capacity by category                              ERCOT Phase I market redesign proposals’ tentative implementation timeline
existing generation fleet that shows about 4.4 GW
                                                                    (GW)
of capacity with on-site alternative fuel storage that        10                                                                                     Proposal                                    What it is                                 Implementation period                      Abbreviations
                                                                                                                      Generation with
could operate for about 24 hours, and another 3.7 GW                                                                  firm nearby storage
                                                                8                                                     and pipeline capacity                                                                                                                                            AS: Ancillary Service
of resources that have facilities on-site, which are not                                                                                             Deploy ERS before EEA                       Allows ERS to be deployed before           November 2021
currently operational.                                          6                                                     Generation with                                                            consumers are urged to curtail demand                                                 BTM: Behind-The-Matter
                                                                                                                      inoperable on-site
                                                                                                                      alternative fuel
                                                                4                                                     storage
“Depending on how it will be implemented, and how it                                                                                                 HCAP at $5,000/MWh, MCL at 3 GW             Adjusts ORDC price adder so higher         January 1, 2022                            DR: Demand Response
 will interact with the weather-reliability standards …                                                               Generation with                                                            prices occur more frequently
                                                                2                                                     operational
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ECRS: ERCOT
 we can expect the current momentum around market                                                                     on-site alternative
                                                                0                                                     fuel storage                                                                                                                                                     Contingency
 changes to continue or slow down,” Bordignon said.                    24        48         72        96    120                                      Load resource participation in NSRS         Allows load resources to                   Summer 2022                                Reserve Service
                                                                                                            (hours)
“Both [the firm fuel product and weather reliability                                                                                                                                             participate in NSRS
                                                            Source: Electric Reliability Council of Texas
 standards] are bearish drivers for wholesale prices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   EEA: Energy
 – in the winter as well as summer – as they address                                                                                                 Biannual ORDC report to PUC                 Updates on ORDC scarcity                   Q4 2022                                    Emergency Alert
 potential scarcity at times of high demand, but together   Alison Silverstein, an independent consultant working                                                                                pricing effectiveness
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ERS: Emergency
 they might end up being too aggressive for market          in the power sector who has worked at the PUC, the                                                                                                                                                                         Response Service
 participants accustomed to high scarcity prices.”          Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and a major                                         FFRS                                        Pays for primary frequency response        Q4 2022
                                                            public utility, said the impact on power prices this                                                                                 separately from RRS                                                                   FERC: Federal Energy
 Others, however, see market rule changes and               summer “will be higher and more unpredictable, since                                                                                                                                                                       Regulatory Commission
 potential increases in spending related to new and         we will likely remain in drought and see even … higher                                   ECRS                                        Creates a new AS to back up RRS            Early 2023
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       FFRS: Fast Frequency
 more frequent use of ancillary services as increasing      [than] normal temperatures.”                                                                                                         or frequency regulation service to                                                    Response Service
“costs to the market.”                                                                                                                                                                           mitigate EEA risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       HCAP: High Systemwide
                                                                                                                                                     ERS procurement practices                   Changes how ERS is bought, whether by      Six months after NPRR change               Offer Cap
                                                                                                                                                                                                 quantity, price or expenditure limit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       IRR: Intermittent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Renewable Resource
                                                                                                                                                     ERS seasonal apportionment                  Adjusts ERS quantities to account for      Six months after NPRR change
                                                                                                                                                                                                 increased risk in non-summer periods                                                  ISO: Independent System
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Operator
                                                                                                                                                     Decouple VOLL from HCAP                     Could result in ORDC price adders being    Six to 12 months after PUC rule change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LMP: Locational
                                                                                                                                                                                                 higher more frequently                                                                Marginal Price

                                                                                                                                                     Firm fuel product                           Creates a new AS ensuring enough           Winter of 2022-23                          MCL: Minimum
                                                                                                                                                                                                 fuel is on-site to for a specific period                                              Contingency Level

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPRR: Nodal Protocol
                                                                                                                                                     Backstop Reliability Service*               Creates a new seasonal or annual AS to     After firm fuel product implementation     Revision Request
                                                                                                                                                                                                 back up potential loss of IRRs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       NSRS: Non-Spinning
                                                                                                                                                     LMPs for load resources                     Switches load-managed resources            Controllable resources to get LMPs 24      Reserve Service
                                                                                                                                                                                                 (DR or BTM generation) from zonal          months after NPRR change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ORDC: Operating Reserve
                                                                                                                                                                                                 to nodal pricing                                                                      Demand Curve

                                                                                                                                                     Study customer aggregation in DR            Allows aggregated power demand to          After completion of study of other ISOs’   PUC: Public Utility
                                                                                                                                                                                                 participate in wholesale power markets     implementation of FERC Order 2022          Commission of Texas

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       RRS: Responsive
                                                                                                                                                     Voltage support service                     Creates a new AS to safeguard against      Unknown — competes with ECRS, FFRS,        Reserve Service
                                                                                                                                                                                                 wide voltage level deviations              firm fuel product
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       VOLL: Value of
                                                                                                                                                    *Considered part of Phase II, but prioritized to be implemented alongside Phase I.                                                 Lost Load
                                                                                                                                                    Source: ERCOT

18 Commodity Insights                                                                                                                  April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                                  Commodity Insights 19
“Wholesale prices winter 2022-23?” Silverstein said.      than they did in December, when the PUC adopted its                     trying to tell ERCOT and others to reserve a substantial      The PUC and ERCOT are failing to analyze and
“Again, higher, because none of the measures that         market redesign blueprint.                                              amount of non-spin for generation, so [I’m] not sure if it    understand the grid’s operational reliability problems
 the PUC and ERCOT are undertaking consider cost-                                                                                 will be a huge savings compared to present day.”             “with current and growing energy resources and
 competitiveness, cost-effectiveness or affordability.”   ERCOT North Hub on-peak July-August power                                                                                             demand,” Silverstein said.
                                                          averaged about $106/MWh in March, up from $84.10/
                                                          MWh in December, while on-peak January-February                         ‘Spending ... like drunken sailors’                          “They are doing even less to accurately recognize
Winterization                                             2023 power averaged about $74.75/MWh in March, up                                                                                     and account for the cost consequences of their
                                                          from about $57/MWh in December.                                         Silverstein said the PUC and ERCOT’s plans indicate           current and proposed reliability-improving policies
Mandatory winterization of generation was “Texas’                                                                                 that they “are chasing the wrong reliability problem.”        and practices,” Silverstien said. “They’re spending
single most important reliability improving measure,”     “Despite the reduction in the cap to $5,000, there is                                                                                 customers’ money like drunken sailors under the flag
Silverstein said.                                          little doubt that the more conservative approach to                    “On the operational level, … the PUC’s market changes         of improving reliability, while hoping that the PUC’s
                                                           acquiring ancillary services, the increase in services                  are addressing resource adequacy by trying to                unwillingness to demand an accounting will continue to
“Unfortunately, since the gas supply has not similarly     like ERS, [Non-Spinning Reserve Service], and Firm                      increase the amount and availability of mostly thermal       obscure whether these measures are working and how
 been winterized, and gas contracting, delivery            Fuel will increase costs to the market, particularly in                 generation and industrial-scale load resources,”             much they cost.” 
 and pricing have not received similar scrutiny            the winter,” said Cyrus Reed, conservation director at                  Silverstein said. “But paying lots more money to
 and correction, the other measures now under              the Lone Star Chapter of the Sierra Club.                               large, old fossil generators won’t solve the ramping
 consideration may have limited reliability impact in a                                                                            problem, and the industrial customers who are willing
 future arctic event,” Silverstein said.                  Phase I reforms also included a provision that demand                    to take ERS payments won’t want to deliver regular
                                                          response participate in the NSRS ancillary service,                      DR for ramping.”
Judging by summer and winter forward markets,             which Reed noted March 23 “could actually lower
traders foresee greater risk of higher prices currently   prices for that service, but certain generators are

20 Commodity Insights                                                                                                April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                       Commodity Insights 21
Blending for
decarbonization
Utilities across the US are experimenting with
combining power generation capabilities, including
next-generation gas turbines that offer hydrogen
capabilities. By Brandon Mulder
Blending for decarbonization

S
      everal US power utilities are                           Manufacturer                  Turbine model                  Blending rate
      moving in the hydrogen direction
                                                              GE                            7Ha.002                           15%-20%
      as they experiment with hydrogen
blending in natural gas turbines and                          GE                            7Ha.003                                50%
announce goals of replacing gas with
100% hydrogen by midcentury.                                  Siemens                       SGT industrial gas turbines       15%-60%

                                                              Siemens                       SGT heavy-duty turbines                30%
One of the latest hydrogen commitments from the
power sector came earlier this year when Duke Energy          Mitsubishi Power Americas     M501JAC                                30%
announced a $4 billion investment in hydrogen-
enabled natural gas generation as the utility winds           Wärtsilä                      34SG                                   25%
down its coal assets. During the company’s latest
quarterly earnings call, CFO Steve Young said “we             INNIO                         Type 4 gas engines               up to 100%
believe our natural gas units are well-positioned to
take advantage of hydrogen technology as it evolves.”         Rolls-Royce                   Series 500, Series 4000                25%

Duke’s announcement builds on hydrogen’s momentum             Existing gas                                                         ~5%
in the power sector. In 2020, the Long Ridge Energy           combined cycle turbines
Terminal in Ohio announced plans to transition a
485-MW gas-fired power plant to run on General              Source: Turbine manufacturers
Electric’s new hydrogen-capable turbine, which is able
to burn a gas stream blended with 15%-20% hydrogen.
On the Gulf Coast, Entergy Texas is developing the          investments, like advanced nuclear plants, utilities can
Orange County Advanced Power Station, a 1,215-MW            leverage existing facilities to begin blending hydrogen
power facility along the Texas-Louisiana border that        at low levels in the near term, then ramp up to higher
will be capable of using 30% hydrogen by 2026 using         levels over time.
turbines developed by Mitsubishi Power.
                                                            A Duke Energy pilot project, for instance, has an initial                      flame further away and don’t melt themselves,” said          and a variety of companies have brought a range of
Experimentation with hydrogen blending in turbines          goal of co-firing hydrogen in gas plants at a 30% rate                         Joshua Rhodes, a research associate at the University        hydrogen-capable turbines to market in recent years.
is happening elsewhere around the US as well,               by 2024 and a midterm goal of 100% hydrogen by 2030.                           of Texas Energy Institute. “If you were to try to run high
including in Siemens Energy’s Intermountain Power                                                                                          blends of hydrogen in an older vintage facility, you         General Electric, for instance, has its 7Ha models
Project in Utah and Mitsubishi’s proposed $1 billion        “I think investors really like that it can do that smoothing                   would essentially get what they call blowback, and it        that are capable of blending up to 50%. And the gas
facility slated to produce green hydrogen for gas-fired      of the transition – I think that’s very compelling,” Kizer                    would melt itself from the inside.”                          technology company INNIO claims its converted
turbines in Montana.                                         said. “There’s scalability in your financial commitment.”                                                                                  gas turbine can run on a variable fuel mix with up
                                                                                                                                           Yet there are some older vintage turbines capable            to 100% hydrogen.
“Hydrogen does a lot of things that we really need done,”                                                                                  of burning gas streams with low levels of hydrogen,
 said Alex Kizer, senior vice president of research and     The right blend                                                                and there are a variety of factors that determine            But the full impacts of incorporating hydrogen
 analysis at Energy Futures Initiative. “We need clean,                                                                                    blending capability – turbine age, the speed of turbine      into the gas system remain to be seen. Policy
 flexible, load-following resources for the grid, and       There are unique challenges to blending hydrogen in                            rotation, and, among others, the size of the hydrogen        support to usher hydrogen into the power sector
 these are things that gas generally does today, where      gas streams at all points along the value chain. Within                        versus gas molecules.                                        will be critical, Kizer said, but it’s not yet clear what
 you can call on it at any time. Many people are thinking   turbines, gas and hydrogen respond differently to                                                                                           policy mix will be necessary or how it could impact
 that that’s maybe something hydrogen can do, too.”         combustion. Hydrogen ignites faster than gas, which                            “These are tuned instruments, and you really got to          consumer-level prices.
                                                            brings the flame closer to the nozzle through which the                         understand how this different product will impact your
The move toward hydrogen in the power sector is also        gas stream comes.                                                               expensive assets,” Kizer said.                          “It’s vitally important that we figure this out, and I think
attractive to investors, Kizer said, because hydrogen                                                                                                                                                utilities are spending time experimenting right now,”
allows utilities to start small. In contrast with other     “Because hydrogen combusts so much faster, you have                            Raising blending levels up to the 30% range and beyond Kizer said. “There [are] unique challenges to actually
clean technologies with high upfront capital spending        to design the nozzles differently so that they keep the                       typically requires a whole new category of technologies, generate electrons from hydrogen.” 

24 Commodity Insights                                                                                                         April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                           Commodity Insights 25
Of pathways
                                                  and prices
                                                  James Burgess explains how high costs of
                                                  hydrogen production in Europe opens the doors
                                                  to imports from the US and the Middle East

26 Commodity Insights   April 2022   April 2022                                             Commodity Insights 27
Of pathways and prices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Of pathways and prices
                                                            H2GLOBAL AUCTION MODEL FOR GERMAN HYDROGEN IMPORTS

S
      oaring feedstock gas and power prices                     H2Global auction model for German hydrogen imports
      following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
      February 24 have sent hydrogen cost

                                                            Price (demand, supply)
of production assessments sharply higher                                             HPA, eg. 10 years

in Europe, underlining the region’s potential                                        Compensating
                                                                                     the price
for imports of the renewable energy carrier.                                         difference          Effect of market
                                                                                                         regulation

                                                                                     HSA, eg. 1 year
The UK remained the highest priced region globally for
                                                                                                 Time
low-carbon hydrogen production, with the Netherlands
                                                             Note: actual HSA values depend on annual tenders
close behind, the S&P Global Commodity Insights              Source: H2Global
Hydrogen Price Wall showed.

UK electrolysis production prices averaged around           production costs in Australia and the Middle East are
$20/kg in March, more than six times the cheapest           lower than fossil-based production with CCS in the
locations in Western Australia and the US Midcontinent.     same locations.
UK prices were more than 40% higher than in Japan,
another potential importer. Low production costs            Prices also rose sharply in Japan, with knock-on
in Australia, meanwhile, highlighted the country’s          effects from global surging LNG prices following the
credentials to supply Japan and South Korea.                Russian invasion and an earthquake that hit northern
                                                            Japan March 16, temporarily shutting down several
“Understanding how differences in regional power            thermal power plants in the region.
 markets impact hydrogen production costs around
 the world will be an increasingly important factor in      The data showed the comparative cost advantage CCS-
 determining future trade flows,” S&P Global Head           based low-carbon hydrogen pathways have in Europe
 of Energy Transition Pricing Alan Hayes said. “These       versus electrolysis.
 regional differences will also be important for decision
 makers who want to compare options to achieve the          “While most European countries are focused on                                Key to achieving this target will be imports,                 The agency is developing a World Trade Organization-
 most cost-effective routes to decarbonization.”             expanding hydrogen produced from electrolysis,                              with Germany in particular signing a series of                compliant catalogue of standards, focused on ensuring
                                                             the UK government has provided a ‘twin-track’                               agreements with major potential global producers of           project additionality and trustworthy certification
“As well as regional comparisons, understanding the          hydrogen strategy recognizing the role of fossil                            green hydrogen.                                               of renewable hydrogen. Westphal said certification
 different options across different production pathways      plus CCUS [carbon capture, utilization and storage]                                                                                       across the supply chain was challenging for
 is also vital when considering the most appropriate         hydrogen as a pathway to achieve carbon emissions                           Europe’s leading economy has signed bilateral                 many countries.
 option in each region,” Hayes added.                        reduction,” said S&P Global Future Energy Signposts                         alliances on hydrogen production with countries
                                                             Manager Anne Robba.                                                         including Chile, Australia, Canada, Morocco, Namibia,         The focus on existing liquid markets for ammonia,
The US is emerging as a low-cost steam methane                                                                                           Saudi Arabia and Ukraine.                                     methanol, and jet fuel ensured there was ready
reforming hydrogen production center, with that                                                                                                                                                        demand for green versions of the products, Westphal
production pathway shown as the cheapest globally.          Security of supply                                                           Germany’s H2Global import initiative plans to open a          said, allowing new applications in transport or power
The Hydrogen Price Wall shows the lowest cost region                                                                                     first auction window for a 10-year contract for green         generation to emerge.
for hydrogen production (via conventional steam             The energy security of supply crisis in Europe triggered                     ammonia imports in the second quarter of 2022, with
methane reforming without carbon capture and                by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has prompted an                            a first cargo expected in 2024, a senior adviser for the      With interest in hydrogen imports to Europe coming
storage, or CCS) was the US Midcontinent at just            acceleration of energy transition policies across the                        government-funded agency said April 4.                        thick and fast, several companies have been outlining
$1.21/kg. Prices slipped below other US regions, with       continent, including specific measures for hydrogen.                                                                                       plans for hydrogen and ammonia terminals, as
power and gas input prices falling steeply on mild                                                                                       The first sale is planned for 2023, Kirsten Westphal,         well as agreements to ship the energy carrier to
weather and reduced demand.                                 The European Commission has brought forward                                  executive director analysis at the H2Global Foundation,       European ports. 
                                                            increased hydrogen production capacity targets                               told S&P Global in an interview.
The price wall also shows, however, that in locations       by 2030 in response, aiming for 20 million mt/year,
where power feedstock is cheap, electrolysis                double the initial target set out in the EU’s hydrogen                       “We are hearing from the industry that H2Global with
production is already under $3/kg. Electrolysis             strategy from 2020.                                                           its criteria will set the gold standard for a lot of other
                                                                                                                                          deals,” Westphal said.

28 Commodity Insights                                                                                                       April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                      Commodity Insights 29
Of pathways and prices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Of pathways and prices

 Platts hydrogen price wall
 Larger panels represent higher prices. Prices in $/kg as of end-March.
 Below is a selection of S&P Global Commodity Insights hydrogen assessments showing regional price differences and
 month-on-month changes. Early trade potential is emerging as technologies and regions compete to produce the cheapest
 low-carbon hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by renewables or from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage.
  Gulf/ALK              NoCal/PEM NoCal/SMR                                    Ned/ALK           Ned/PEM                              Ned/SMR+              NSW/ALK                 NSW/PEM          QLD/ALK                 Jap/ALK                          Key

                                                           Mid/ALK
  2.93                   4.56                  1.58                                                                                   8.89                  4.64                    6.31             6.9                         12.89
                                                                               17.47             20.71
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               WA/ALK        Area/pathway
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2.67          Mar-22 avg price
                                              Gulf/SMR
  Gulf/PEM                                     1.23                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Pathway symbol
  3.91                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Price direction
                                              Mid/PEM                                                                                                       NSW/COAL
                                                                                                                                                            3.92                                     QLD/COAL
                                              2.98                                                                                                                                                                                                            Production pathway
                                                                                                                                                                                                     4.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              PEM electrolysis
                                                                                                                                      Ned/ATR                                                                                Jap/PEM
  Mid/SMR           NE/PEM                            NoCal/ALK                                                                       10.03                                                                                      15.68
                                            NE/SMR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Alkaline electrolysis
   1.21              5.31                             3.41                                                                                                  QLD/PEM                    VIC/ALK       WA/ALK     WA/PEM
                                                                                                                                                            7.01                       3.04          2.67       4.03                                          ATR + CSS
  NE/ALK
  4.09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SMR + CSS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SMR without CSS
                                             NW/ALK
                                             2.6                                                                                                                                                                                                              Coal gasification + CSS
                                                                                                                                                                                                     WA/SMR+
                                                                                                                                                            VIC/LIG          VIC/PEM                 6.79                                                     Lignite gasification + CSS
  NW/PEM         Rock/ALK                             SE/ALK                   UK/ALK                         UK/PEM                                        3.24             4.46
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jap/SMR
                                          Rock/SMR

  3.57           2.75                                 3.06                     18.54                          21.94                                                                                                              6.89                         Producing region
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ←less change       more change→

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              United States
                 Rock/PEM
                                                                                                                                                            Om/ALK       Om/PEM                      Qat/PEM     SA/ALK   SA/PEM         UAE/ALK    UAE/PEM   Asia-Pacific

                                                                                                                                                                                           Qat/ALK
                 3.73                      SE/PEM                                                                                                           3.58         4.66                        3.55        3.23     4.26           4.51       5.74
                                           4.08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Europe
  NW/SMR
   1.24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Middle East

           SoCal/ALK                    UMW/ALK                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Interactive
  SE/SMR

           3.13                         3.44                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Scan here for the latest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                updates on the Hydrogen
                                                                                                                                                                                            Qat/SMR+
                                                                                                              UK/SMR+                                                                       6.89                 SA/SMR+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Price Wall.
                                                                                                              13.72                                         Om/SMR+
                                                                               UK/ATR                                                                                                                            6.93
                                        UMW/PEM                                                                                                             6.97                                                                         UAE/SMR+
                                                                     UMW/SMR

  SoCal/PEM                                                                    8.46
                            SoCal/SMR

                                        4.55                                                                                                                                                                                             7.03
   4.23

 Notes: Prices are month average cost-of-production assessments, including capex. European prices include carbon costs for SMR and ATR assessments.
 Prices for the Netherlands and UK are converted to $/kg from assessments in Eur/kg and GBP/kg. Darker shade means greater month-on-month price move.
 Developed by James Burgess and Henry Edwardes-Evans. Designed by Reynaldo Dizon.

30 Commodity Insights                                                                                                                          April 2022             April 2022                                                                                     Commodity Insights 31
Russia crisis
      exacerbates tension
      between climate and
      energy security risks
       Whether US shale producers could help to boost non-Russian
       supplies in the global market has now become a trickier debate.
       By Meghan Gordon

32 Commodity Insights                                                    April 2022   April 2022   Commodity Insights 33
Russia crisis exacerbates tension between climate, energy security risks                                                                                                            Russia crisis exacerbates tension between climate, energy security risks

S                                                         US Gulf of Mexico fields rank
      piking oil and gas prices and
      pressure to shun Russian energy
      imports in the days after the
Ukraine invasion forced a colossal rethink
                                                          among the lowest for carbon
of the Biden administration’s approach
to domestic oil and gas production.
                                                          intensity in the world, according
                                                          to the latest calculations by
                                                          S&P Global Commodity Insights
The flows had already fallen off while US lawmakers
were still debating a formal ban, and Treasury
Department guidance continued to permit energy
transactions through sanctioned Russian banks.
                                                          “With industry’s help, Biden could negotiate bipartisan
Whether US shale producers could contribute to a           support for carbon price in exchange for pro-
global increase in non-Russian supplies became a           industry measures such as fast-tracking permits,”
trickier debate, with some drillers saying investors       he said March 7.
remained wary of anything but slow growth while many
progressive Democrats argued the crisis shows the          By analyzing satellite data from 2019 and 2020,
need for a quicker energy transition.                      Kayrros created the first systematic estimate of
                                                           large methane leaks, finding about 1,800 so-called
A bill by Senator Ed Markey, Democrat-Massachusetts,      “ultra-emitters,” of which 1,200 came from oil and
said the US should go further than just banning            gas facilities. Those high-emitting events, which
Russian imports by developing a comprehensive              are normally undetectable and not accounted for in
strategy to replace the barrels with “domestic carbon-     national greenhouse gas inventories, represented as
free energy sources” and accelerate investments in         much as 12% of global methane emissions from the oil
renewable energy.                                          and gas industry, according to the study.

“Actively decarbonizing the United States energy          The study demonstrates that climate-related data is
 economy is of vital strategic interest to the national   improving every day, potentially creating more political
 security and climate change reduction targets of         support for carbon pricing that distinguishes between                   The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, a CEO-led             S&P Global Analytics’ calculations represent the
 the United States,” Markey said in the bill, called      the cleaner and dirtier upstream sources.                               consortium of companies responsible for about one-        greenhouse gas emissions of a field’s current
 the “Severing Putin’s Immense Gains from Oil                                                                                     third of global production, has set targets to reduce     operations from the wellhead to storage or export
 Transfers (SPIGOT) Act.”                                 US Gulf of Mexico fields rank among the lowest for                      upstream carbon intensity to 17 kgCO2e/boe by 2025        terminal, including upstream activities like flaring and
                                                          carbon intensity (CI) in the world, according to the                    and bring an end to routine flaring by 2030. Of the 104   venting but not exploration and drilling.
And yet other longtime climate champions, like State      latest calculations by S&P Global Commodity Insights.                   fields ranked by S&P Global, 39 would currently meet
Department envoy John Kerry, started talking about                                                                                the 2025 target.                                          The calculations show a massive range of upstream
natural gas as a bridge fuel again.                       The updated rankings published February 15 look at                                                                                impact, from 1.6 kgCO2e/boe for Norway’s
                                                          the carbon intensity of 104 crude streams across the                    Producers are reducing upstream emissions through         offshore Johan Sverdrup to 1,460 kgCO2e/boe for
The US imported 672,000 b/d of Russian petroleum in       world, with values expressed in kilograms of carbon                     cogeneration facilities, modernizing compression          Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt.
2021, including 199,000 b/d of crude.                     dioxide equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent.                        plants, improving leak detection, ending venting and
                                                                                                                                  reducing flaring.                                         Offshore UK and Norway producers increasingly use
But how to encourage more supply in the short term        Many oil and gas producers are scrutinizing the                                                                                   renewable power to run their platforms instead of coal
without sacrificing climate ambitions?                    emissions impact of their portfolios to determine                       Environmental groups say the efforts do nothing           or natural gas, which sharply reduces emissions for
                                                          which fields will have staying power as fossil fuel                     to eliminate Scope 3 emissions, which are the vast        barrel produced.
Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst at Kayrros,   investment shrink. Carbon pricing and other climate                     majority of global warming emissions tied to the
contends that striking that balance is possible.          policies could create a premium for the least-                          use of fuels in airplanes, cars, petrochemicals and       Offshore Gulf of Mexico production also claims low
                                                          intensive crude streams.                                                elsewhere downstream.                                     carbon intensity because advanced subsalt imaging
                                                                                                                                                                                            practices have helped drillers target the most efficient

34 Commodity Insights                                                                                                April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                    Commodity Insights 35
Russia crisis exacerbates tension between climate, energy security risks                                                                                                                                                            Russia crisis exacerbates tension between climate, energy security risks

                                                                                                                                      Chasing the lowest-carbon crudes
                                                                                                                                      Global oil producers are increasingly touting efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of their upstream operations to stand out as investment dollars
                                                                                                                                      shrink during the energy transition. Some producers see carbon intensity rankings as a measure of which fields will have staying power, while
                                                                                                                                      environmental groups say the efforts ignore the much larger global warming emissions created downstream when the oil is refined for transportation,
                                                                                                                                      shipping, petrochemicals and other uses. S&P Global Commodity Insights has expanded its carbon intensity calculations to include 104 fields,
                                                                                                                                      representing the greenhouse gas emissions of current operations from the wellhead to storage or export terminal.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sunrise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5x

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       AB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  scale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Firebag
                                                                                                                                                  Canada oil sands                                       MacKay River
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Long Lake                  Canada shale                             Carbon intensity estimates
                                                                                                                                                  Producers rely on carbon-                                                                                    Water recycling will be key              (kgCO2eq/boe, January 2022)
                                                                                                                                                  intensive steam injections                                                         Surmont                   to reducing emissions from
                                                                                                                                                  but can offset emissions                                                           MEG Christina
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        175
                                                                                                                                                                                                   CVE Christina Lake                                          the supply-chain                                         100           Oil field
                                                                                                                                                  with cogeneration and                                                              Lake                      challenges of formations                                 50
                                                                                                                                                  solvent-based technolo-                                                           Jackfish
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               with high water content.                                 10
                                                                                                                                                  gies.                                                       Kirby Lake            Foster Creek
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cold-Lake
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Primrose/
                                                                                                                                                                   AB                                          Wolf Lake
                                                                                                                                                                                     SK

                                                                                                                                                  Montney
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Hibernia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Hebron
                                                                                                                                                     Cardium                                                                                                                                            Middle East
                                                                                                                                                                                 Viking                  CANADA                                                                                         Aging fields with strong output and
                                                                                                                                                                                                Bakken                                                                                                  limited flaring rank among the lowest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        emitters, on par with some global
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ND                                                                                                   offshore sources.
                                                                                                                                                                                             Bakken
                                                                                                                                                                            WY
                                                                                                                                             CA                                           Powder-River                                                                                                                        Kirkuk

                                                                                                                                                                   UT                                                                                                                                                                     IRAN
                                                                                                                                                                                             U N I T E D S TAT E S                              Utica          Onshore US shale                                   IRAQ
                                                                                                                                                                 Uinta                                                                OH                       Methane leaks and routine
                                                                                                                                                                              CO                                                                                                                                   Zubair                     West Qurna
                                                                                                                                                                                Denver- KS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               flaring have created a wide gap                 Rumaila                        Marun
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Salina
                                                                                                                                                                               Julesburg                                                                       in carbon intensity among US
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Anadarko                                                shale producers, although all                   Burgan                         Ghawar
                                                                                                                                                       San-Joaquin                         TX              OK                                                  will face tougher federal rules                               Zuluf
                                                                                                                                         CA-Coast                                                                                                              under a new EPA proposal.                                  Safaniya                 Fateh
                                                                                                                                                                                                        SCOOP-STACK
reservoirs. These fields range from 12.1 kgCO2e/boe to       by the need for gas-powered steam injections to                                                              Permian               Permian
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Offshore North America                                     SAUDI                    Murban
                                                                                                                                                                         Delaware               other       LA                                                                                                            ARABIA
23.1 kgCO2e/boe under the latest estimates.                  mine the heavy bitumen. Some producers are trying                                                                               Permian              Gulf-Coast-Louisiana                         Advanced seismic imaging to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dukhan
                                                                                                                                                                                             Midland                                                           target the most-efficient
                                                             to lower emissions with cogeneration and solvent-                                                                                     Eagle                                                       reservoirs and strong output
                                                                                                                                         0                  500 mi                                  Ford                                                       per well help limit emissions
Kuwait’s Burgan field, new to the list, is the lowest        based assistance.                                                           0          500 km                                                                                                     footprints.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0            250 mi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0       250 km
onshore stream at 16.8 kgCO2e/boe.
                                                                                                                                                                               MEXICO                  Great-White
                                                             California’s medium to extra-heavy San Joaquin oil                                                                                                                                           LA

S&P Global carbon analyst Varaleka Pant said Burgan –        ranks second-highest on the list at 177.9 kgCO2e/boe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Horn-Mountain
along with Saudi Arabia’s offshore Safaniya and UAE’s        because the aging field requires large steam injections                                                                                                                        3.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Appomattox
                                                                                                                                                                 Schrader-Bluff                                                             scale                     Leo
onshore Fateh, both of which are below 20 kgCO2e/boe         and heavy water management.                                                             AK          Alpine                                                                                         Europa
                                                                                                                                                                 Prudhoe-Bay                                                                                                    Thunder
– show that even aging fields can have low per-barrel                                                                                                            Kuparuk-River                                                                  Auger         Mad-Dog           Horse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Shenzi Devils
carbon intensities, given high production volumes and        The extreme carbon intensity of Venezuela’s Orinoco                                                                                                                                         Tahiti           Tower
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Atlantis                            Offshore UK and Norway
limited flaring.                                             belt shows that this crude stream would face                                                                                                                                               Julia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Big-Foot
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Chinook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Using offsite renewable     Goliat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          energy instead of onsite coal
                                                             challenges in a world with tight carbon budgets, even                                           0               500 mi                                                         Lucius           Stones                                       or gas for power sharply
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jack                                            lowers platforms' carbon
                                                             if not for the existing sanctions limiting its reach. The                                       0        500 km
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          intensity.
Cleaning up the upstream                                     crude has high levels of dissolved gas that gets flared                         Rest of world                                                                                                                                                                          Heidrun
                                                             out, and the fields use energy-intensive processes like                         Some offshore projects have started capturing associated
                                                                                                                                             gas to transport to local LNG facilities. In Venezuela,
Methane controls largely determine where US onshore          delayed coking and hydrocracking to upgrade the crude                           flaring of dissolved gas and energy-intensive processing                                                                                                                   Statfjord      NORWAY
                                                                                                                                             exacerbate its heavy crude's carbon footprint.
shale drillers fall on the CI scale, and the entire sector   quality, Pant said.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Snorre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Samotlor                                                                                     Clair            Gullfaks
will be forced to tighten these emissions further under                                                                                                        Oronoco
                                                                                                                                                             (Venezuela)                                                RUSSIA                                                                  Schiehallion                     Troll
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Tengiz                                                                                                                        Oseberg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Kraken
the Environmental Protection Agency’s latest proposed        “Reduction in wellhead flaring and adoption of                                                                                            AZE.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                KAZ.                Bozhong                                                                Mariner              Alvheim
                                                                                                                                                                                             Waha                                                                                                    Captain                    Grane
methane rule. US onshore operations range from about          integrated energy technologies such as cogeneration                                                                                               Azeri   CHINA                                                                                                  Ivar-Aasen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Golden-Eagle                   Johan Sverdrup
                                                                                                                                              Cantarell                                                                                                                                                                        Edvard-Grieg
18.1 kgCO2e/boe in the Permian and Delaware basin             systems can help significantly bring down the carbon                                 MEX.                                            LIBYA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Bombay High
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Buzzard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Ekofisk
                                                                                                                                                                   Cusiana                Bonga                                                                                                          Catcher
to 95.4 kgCO2e/boe near the Louisiana Gulf Coast,             intensity for the oil-rich Orinoco Belt,” she said.                                    ECU.
                                                                                                                                                                     VEN.                       NIGERIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  INDIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Valhall
                                                                                                                                                                                                Agbami                                                                                                                  North
according to S&P Global.                                                                                                                             Sacha
                                                                                                                                                                     BRAZIL                      Girassol                                                                                             UNITED             Sea
                                                                                                                                                                                                ANG.                                                                                                 KINGDOM
                                                                                                                                                                              Tupi
Canadian oil sands operations on the list have CI                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0            500 mi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0       500 km
values of 43.6 kgCO2e/boe to 119.8 kgCO2e/boe, driven
                                                                                                                                      Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights                                                                                            Developed and designed by Meghan Gordon, Varaleka Pant, and Ginny Mason.

36 Commodity Insights                                                                                                    April 2022   April 2022                                                                                                                                                                                     Commodity Insights 37
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