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Energy Outlook 2020 edition
2 |
The Energy Outlook The Energy Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These
scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp
explores the forces would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible implications of
shaping the global different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the
energy transition. The scenarios are based on existing and developing
energy transition technologies which are known about today and do not consider the
possibility of entirely new or unknown technologies emerging.
out to 2050 and the
Much of the analysis in the Outlook is focussed around three
key uncertainties scenarios: Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual. The multitude of
surrounding that uncertainties means that the probability of any one of these scenarios
materializing exactly as described is negligible. Moreover, the three
transition scenarios do not provide a comprehensive description of all possible
outcomes. However, the scenarios do span a wide range of possible
outcomes and so might help to inform a judgement about the
uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2050.
The Energy Outlook is produced to inform bp’s analysis and strategy
and is published as a contribution to the wider debate. But the Outlook
is only one source among many when considering the future of global
energy markets and bp considers a wide range of other analysis and
information when forming its long-term strategy.
3 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition4 |
In February of this year, bp In August, we set out a new strategy
announced a new purpose – to in support of this purpose and
reimagine energy for people and our ambition. It will see bp transform
planet. This purpose was supported from an International Oil Company
by a new ambition, to be a net-zero focused on producing resources to an
company by 2050 or sooner and to Integrated Energy Company focused
help get the world to net zero. on delivering solutions for customers.
From IOC to IEC. And while the
Our new purpose and ambition are Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge
underpinned by four fundamental impact on the global economy and
judgements about the future. That energy markets, it has not affected
Welcome to the the world is on an unsustainable path
and its carbon budget is running out.
our belief in and commitment to our
purpose, ambition and strategy.
2020 edition of That energy markets will undergo
lasting change, shifting towards That belief and commitment is in
bp’s Energy Outlook renewable and other forms of zero- no small part down to the objective
or low-carbon energy. That demand analysis that goes into every edition
for oil and gas will be increasingly of the Energy Outlook. It does not to
challenged. And that, alongside many try to predict precise future outcomes
others, bp can contribute to the – any attempt to do that is doomed to
energy transition that the world wants fail. Instead, it helps us to understand
and needs, and create value doing so. the many uncertainties ahead – in the
near and longer term – by considering Customers will continue to Countries, cities and industries will
a range of possible pathways the redefine mobility and convenience, increasing want their decarbonized
energy transition may take over the underpinned by the mobility energy and mobility needs met
next 30 years. This year’s Outlook revolution that is already underway with bespoke solutions, shifting the
explores three main scenarios – combining electric vehicles, shared centre of gravity of energy markets
Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as- mobility and autonomy. towards consumers and away from
traditional upstream producers.
usual – which span a wide range Oil and gas – while remaining
of possible outcomes. Those three needed for decades – will be The Energy Outlook has been tracking
scenarios have helped us to develop increasingly challenged as society and analysing the trajectory of the
a strategy that we think is robust to shifts away from its reliance on fossil world’s energy system for the past
the uncertainty around the pace and fuels 10 years. This year’s Outlook has
nature of the energy transition. been instrumental in the development
And those core beliefs lead us to
of the new strategy we announced in
Three features are common across three more about how the energy
August. I hope it is useful to everyone
those scenarios and they form a set system will change out to 2050:
else seeking ways to accelerate the
of core beliefs as to how energy energy transition and get to net zero.
demand is likely to change over the The energy mix will become
We welcome any feedback on the
next three decades: more diverse, driven increasingly
by customer choice rather than content and how we can improve.
resource availability.
Renewable energy will play an
increasingly important role in meeting Markets will need more integration
the world’s growing energy needs. to accommodate this more diverse
supply and will become more
localized as the world electrifies Bernard Looney
and the role of hydrogen expands. chief executive officer
5 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionExecutive summary
6 |
Key messages
Global energy demand continues levels of integration and competition.
to grow, at least for a period, driven These changes underpin core beliefs
by increasing prosperity and living about how the global energy system
standards in the emerging world. may restructure in a low-carbon
Significant inequalities in energy transition.
consumption and access to energy
persist. Demand for oil falls over the next
30 years. The scale and pace of this
The structure of energy demand decline is driven by the increasing
is likely to change over time: efficiency and electrification of road
declining role of fossil fuels, offset transportation.
by an increasing share of renewable
energy and a growing role for The outlook for natural gas is more
electricity. These changes underpin resilient than for oil, underpinned by
core beliefs about how the structure the role of natural gas in supporting
of energy demand may change. fast growing developing economies
as they decarbonized and reduce
A transition to a lower carbon their reliance on coal, and as a
energy system is likely to lead source of near-zero carbon energy
to fundamental restructuring of when combined with carbon capture
the global energy system, with a use and storage (CCUS).
more diverse energy mix, greater
consumer choice, more localized
energy markets, and increasing
Renewable energy, led by wind and The use of hydrogen increases as
solar power, is the fastest growing the energy system progressively
source of energy over the next 30 decarbonizes, carrying energy
years, supported by a significant to activities which are difficult or
increase in the development of – and costly to electrify. The production of
investment in – new wind and solar hydrogen is dominated by a mix of
capacity. blue and green hydrogen.
The importance of electricity in The importance of bioenergy –
final energy consumption increases biofuels, biomethane and biomass
materially over the next 30 years. – increases as consumption shifts
The carbon intensity of power away from fossil fuels.
generation falls markedly, driven by
renewables gaining share relative to The world is on an unsustainable
coal. path. A rapid and sustained fall in
carbon emissions is likely to require
The intermittency associated with a series of policy measures, led
the growing use of wind and solar by a significant increase in carbon
power means a variety of different prices. These policies may need to
technologies and solutions are be reinforced by shifts in societal
needed to balance the energy behaviours and preferences.
system and ensure the availability of Delaying these policies measures
firm power. and societal shifts may lead to
significant economic costs and
disruption.
7 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionContents
8 |
Overview 10 Regions 50
Three scenarios: Rapid, Net Zero and Summary 52
Business-as-usual 12 Regional energy demand and carbon emissions 54
Changing nature of global energy system 16 Fuel mix across key countries and regions 56
Global energy trade and energy imbalances 58
Global backdrop 18 Alternative scenario: Deglobalization 60
Total greenhouse gases 20
Global GDP 22 Demand and supply of energy sources 62
Climate impacts on GDP growth 24 Summary 64
Energy demand 26 Oil and liquid fuels 66
Impact of Covid-19 28 Gas 76
Energy access and economic development 30 Renewable energy in power 84
Coal 88
Energy use by sector 32 Nuclear power 90
Summary 34 Hydroelectricity 92
Industry 36
Non-combusted 38
Buildings 40
Transport 42
Other energy carriers 94 Investment 132
Electricity and power generation 96 Summary 134
Hydrogen 102 Upstream oil and gas investment 136
Carbon emissions from energy use 106 Comparisons 138
Summary 108 Revisions to Rapid 140
Carbon pathways 110 Comparing Rapid with external Outlooks 142
Alternative scenario: Delayed and Disorderly 112
Annex 144
Global energy system at net zero 118
Key figures, definitions,
Summary 120 methodology and data sources 146
Energy demand 122
Electrification and the power sector 124
Oil and natural gas 126
Bioenergy and hydrogen 128
CCUS and negative emission technologies 130
9 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition10 |
Overview
Three scenarios: Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual
Changing nature of global energy system
11 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionOverview
12 |
Three scenarios to explore the energy transition to 2050
CO2 emissions from energy use
Gt of CO2
40 Rapid
Net Zero
35 Business-as-usual
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Key points
This year’s Energy Outlook considers with limiting the rise in global that progress, albeit relatively slow,
three main scenarios which explore temperatures by 2100 to well below means carbon emissions peak in the
different pathways for the global 2-degrees Celsius above pre- mid-2020s. Despite this peaking,
energy system to 2050. industrial levels. little headway is made in terms of
reducing carbon emissions from
The scenarios are not predictions The Net Zero Scenario (Net Zero) energy use, with emissions in 2050
of what is likely to happen or what assumes that the policy measures less than 10% below 2018 levels.
bp would like to happen. Rather, the embodied in Rapid are both added
scenarios help to illustrate the range to and reinforced by significant Primary energy demand increases
of outcomes possible over the next shifts in societal behaviour and by around 10% in Rapid and Net
thirty years, although the uncertainty preferences, which further Zero over the Outlook and by around
is substantial and the scenarios accelerate the reduction in carbon 25% in BAU.
do not provide a comprehensive emissions. Global carbon emissions
description of all possible outcomes. from energy use fall by over 95%
by 2050, broadly in line with a range
The Rapid Transition Scenario of scenarios which are consistent
(Rapid) posts a series of policy with limiting temperature rises to
measures, led by a significant 1.5-degrees Celsius.
increase in carbon prices and
supported by more-targeted sector The Business-as-usual Scenario
specific measures, which cause (BAU) assumes that government
carbon emissions from energy use policies, technologies and social
to fall by around 70% by 2050. preferences continue to evolve in
This fall in emissions is in line with a manner and speed seen over
scenarios which are consistent the recent past*. A continuation of *BAU is comparable with the Evolving
Transition Scenario in previous editions
of the Energy Outlook
13 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionOverview
14 |
Scenarios differ due to alternative assumptions
about policies and societal preferences
Average carbon prices in developed
and emerging regions Primary energy consumption by source
US$ per tonne (real 2018) EJ
300 800
Business- Renewables
Developed as-usual
Emerging 700 Hydro
250 Nuclear
Rapid Net Zero
Rapid & 600 Coal
200 Net Zero
Natural gas
500
Oil
150 400
300
100
200
50 Business-as-usual
100
0 0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2018 2050
Key points
The differences between In addition to carbon prices, the As a result of these policies and
the scenarios are driven by three scenarios assume a number shifts in societal preferences,
a combination of different of other policies are enacted to there is a decline in the share of
assumptions about economic affect both the growth of energy hydrocarbons (coal, oil and natural
and energy policies and social consumption and the mix of energy gas) in the global energy system in
preferences. sources across different sectors of all three scenarios. This is matched
the economy: industry (pp 36-37); by a corresponding increase in the
Both Rapid and Net Zero assume buildings (pp 40-41) and transport role of renewable energy as the
a significant increase in carbon (pp 42-49). world increasingly electrifies. The
prices, which reach $250/tonne of scale of this shift varies significantly
CO2 ($2018 prices) in the developed Net Zero is based on the view that across the three scenarios, with the
world by 2050 and $175 in emerging there may be economic and political share of hydrocarbons in primary
economies. This increase in carbon limits to the extent to which an energy declining from around 85%
prices incentivizes significant gains accelerated energy transition can be in 2018 to between 70-20% by 2050
in both energy efficiency and the driven solely by government policies. and the share of renewable energy
use of lower-carbon energy sources. It assumes that the impact of these increasing to between 20-60%.
This policy impulse is much smaller policies is accentuated by the
in BAU, with carbon prices reaching changing behaviour and preferences
only $65 and $35 per tonne of CO2 of companies and households,
by 2050 in developed and emerging with greater adoption of circular
economies respectively. and sharing economies; increased
propensity to switch to low-carbon
energy sources; and less resistance
to the accelerated buildout of low-
carbon technologies and distribution
networks.
15 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionOverview
16 |
Low-carbon transition leads to a fundamental
shift in the global energy system
Shares of primary energy in Rapid
100% Renewables
Natural gas
Other
non-fossil fuels
80%
Oil
Coal
60%
40%
20%
0%
1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050
Key points
The transition to a lower carbon As the importance of coal declined, The increasing diversification of
energy system in Rapid leads to oil became the predominant energy the fuel mix also leads to greater
a fundamental restructuring and source. The energy transition in competition across different forms
reshaping of the global energy Rapid means that for much of of energy as they compete for
system. There are several different the next 20 years the global fuel market share against a backdrop
aspects to these changes. mix is far more diversified than of plateauing energy demand in
previously seen, with oil, natural the second half of the Outlook
First, there is a significant shift away gas, renewables and coal (for a in Rapid. Moreover, the peaking
from traditional hydrocarbons (oil, time) all providing material shares and subsequent decline in the
natural gas and coal) towards non- of world energy. The greater variety consumption of coal, oil and natural
fossil fuels, led by renewable energy. of fuels means that the fuel mix gas in Rapid triggers greater
In Rapid, non-fossil fuels account is increasingly driven by customer competition within individual fuels,
for the majority of global energy choice rather than the availability of as resource owners compete to
from the early 2040s onwards, with fuels, with increasing demands for ensure their energy resources are
the share of hydrocarbons in global integration across different fuels and produced and consumed. This
energy more than halving over the energy services. heightened competition increases
next 30 years. the bargaining power of consumers,
This increased differentiation is further with economic rents shifting away
Second, the energy mix becomes enhanced by the growing importance from traditional upstream producers
far more diversified. For much of of electricity and hydrogen at the towards energy consumers.
history, the global energy system final point of energy use in Rapid.
has tended to be dominated by a These energy carriers are more Similar trends are also apparent in
single energy source. For the first costly to transport than traditional Net Zero, although the pace with
half of the previous century, coal hydrocarbons causing energy markets which the share of renewables
provided most of the world’s energy. to become more localized. grows is even faster.
17 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition18 |
Global
backdrop
Total greenhouse gases
Global GDP
Climate impacts on GDP growth
Energy demand
Impact of Covid-19
Energy access and economic development
19 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionGlobal backdrop
20 |
Carbon emissions from energy use are the largest
source of greenhouse gas emissions
Global GHG emissions Carbon emissions from energy use, 2018
Gt of CO2e
60 Agriculture,
2% Buildings
Seasonal
space
heating
and Industry
50 cooling,
Non-energy Other transport, 14%
5%
Transport
emissions Medium and
heavy road, 5%
Harder
40 Marine, 2% Other residential
to abate
and commercial
buildings, 21%
Aviation, 3%
Energy 2018 total:
30 emissions* 33.9 Gt of CO 2
Fugitive emissions
20 Land-use change Light industry, 24%
Iron and steel,
6%
& forestry
Cement,
Waste 4%
10 Industrial processes Other heavy industry,
13%
Agriculture
0 Energy
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ource: WRI estimates
S
*Energy Outlook definition which includes CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels.
Non-CO2 emissions from energy as defined by WRI are allocated to Industrial processes and Fugitive emissions
Key points
Scientific evidence suggests that the were 32.9 Gt CO2e, similar to the WRI or processes which are relatively
dominant cause of climate change estimate of 32.3 Gt CO2e. straightforward or inexpensive to
is the release of greenhouse gases electrify can be reduced as the power
(GHGs). The World Resources In addition to carbon emissions from sector is increasingly decarbonized.
Institute (WRI) estimates that total energy use, the WRI estimates that One exception to this is seasonal
GHGs were equal to 49.4 Gt CO2e the other main sources of emissions space heating and cooling demands
in 2016, with carbon emissions from in 2016 were: agriculture (5.8 Gt in buildings. Although these demands
energy use being the largest source CO2e); industrial processes (2.8 can be electrified, the scale of the
of GHGs, accounting for around 65% Gt CO2e); land-use and forestry seasonal fluctuations are hard to meet
of all GHGs. change 3.2 Gt CO2e); and waste in a power sector based heavily on
management facilities (1.6 Gt CO2e). intermittent renewable power (see pp
The estimate of carbon emissions 124-125).
from energy used in the Energy In terms of the carbon emissions
Outlook differs slightly from the WRI from energy use, nearly half of the The majority of emissions which are
definition. The Energy Outlook does emissions stem from energy used hard-to-abate stem from activities or
not model fugitive methane emissions within industry. The remainder is split processes that are difficult to electrify
from the production of hydrocarbons roughly evenly between the transport and so need alternative sources of
and so they are excluded from the and buildings (including agriculture) low-carbon energy. This includes high
estimates used. The Outlook does, sectors. temperature industrial processes,
however, include emissions from such as those used in iron and
bunker fuels which are excluded As the energy transition advances, steel, cement and chemicals. It also
from the WRI definition. Based on some emissions can be more readily includes long-distance transportation
the Energy Outlook definition, carbon prevented than others. In particular, services, including heavy duty trucks,
emissions from energy use in 2016 carbon emissions from activities aviation and marine.
21 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionGlobal backdrop
22 |
Global GDP continues to expand, but at a slower rate
Global GDP growth and
Global GDP, 2018-2050 regional contributions
Trillion $US (2015) PPP % per annum
350 3.0%
Other
GDP per head Africa
300
2.5% Developed
Other Asia
250
2.0% India
200 China
World population 1.5%
150 Other
Fast
1.0% urbanizing
100 countries
50 0.5%
0 0%
2018 2050 2018 - 2050
Key points
The world economy continues to The expansion in global activity is The growth in global activity
grow over the next 30 years, driven supported by population growth, and prosperity is underpinned
by increasing wealth and living with the world’s population by continuing high levels of
standards in the developing world, increasing by over 2 billion people to urbanization, which is often an
but at a slower rate than in the past. around 9.6 billion by 2050. integral part of the development
process leading to increasing levels
Global GDP annual growth But the most important factor of industrialization and productivity.
averages around 2.6% (on a 2015 underpinning global growth is Countries which are projected
Purchasing Power Parity basis) in increasing productivity (GDP per to have a relatively fast pace of
all three scenarios. This growth is head) – and hence prosperity urbanization over the next 30 years
considerably slower than its average (income per head) – which drives – that is, the level of urbanization is
over the past 20-years, in part around 80% of the expansion in projected to increase by at least a
reflecting the persistent impact of global GDP over the Outlook. third by 2050 – contribute well over
Covid-19 on economic activity. See half of the increase in world output
pp 28-29 for a discussion of the Developing economies account over the Outlook, despite making
treatment of Covid-19 in this year’s for over 80% of the growth in the up less than a third of global GDP in
Energy Outlook. world economy, with China and 2018.
India contributing around half of that
The weaker economic growth than increase.
in the past also reflects the assumed
increasing impact of climate change
on the productive potential of the
economy (see pp 24-25, 148-149 for
a discussion of this impact).
23 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionGlobal backdrop
24 |
The impact from climate change on economic growth
increases over the Outlook
Climate change impact on level of GDP in 2050
Russia
Canada
Europe
Other CIS
United States
Middle East China
India OECD Asia
Mexico
Africa
Other Asia
South & Central
-11% -7% -3% 0% 2%
America
% change in GDP by 2050
Change in GDP per head relative to
projection using average temperatures
that are kept constant at the current level
Key points
The growing concentration of is based considers only increasing Importantly, if the scenarios were
greenhouse gases in all three temperatures. extrapolated beyond 2050, the
scenarios is assumed to have an erosion of wealth and prosperity in
increasing impact on the growth and For illustrative purposes, the level of BAU would get progressively worse,
productive potential of the global GDP in 2050 in all three scenarios leading to significantly lower levels
economy. is projected to be around 5% of activity and well-being than in
lower relative to a hypothetical Rapid or Net Zero.
Increasing temperatures, combined world in which the concentration
with more extreme weather of greenhouse gases was frozen The environment and economic
patterns and rising sea levels, may at current levels. These effects are models and studies underpinning
trigger a range of impacts that lower assumed to be greatest in regions these illustrative estimates of
economic growth. Efforts to reduce which have the highest average the impact of global warming
or mitigate carbon emissions may temperatures currently on economic activity are highly
also divert investment from other (see pp 148-149). uncertain and almost certainly
sources of growth. incomplete – for example, they do
The negative impact from rising not capture many of the potential
Estimating the potential size of temperature levels is largest in BAU human costs. Future editions of the
these impacts is highly uncertain, where little progress is made in Energy Outlook will update these
with most existing environmental reducing carbon emissions. But the estimates as the scientific and
and economic models and studies upfront costs of the policy actions economic understanding of these
capturing only a subset of these taken to reduce emissions are effects improves.
effects, often very imperfectly. For greater in Rapid and Net Zero, such
instance, the economic literature on that the overall impact on GDP over
which our illustrative impact on GDP the next 30 years is projected to be
broadly similar in all three scenarios.
25 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionGlobal backdrop
26 |
Energy demand grows led by increasing prosperity,
partially offset by efficiency gains
Contribution to primary energy
demand growth Global primary energy demand
% per annum EJ
4% 800
GDP per
head Rapid
3% Business- Population 700 Net Zero
Rapid Net Zero as-usual Business-as-usual
Energy
intensity 600
2%
Primary
energy 500
1%
400
0%
300
-1%
200
-2% 100
-3% 0
1995-2018 2018-2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Key points
Growth in global energy demand is Energy efficiency measured in terms The faster declines in energy
underpinned by increasing levels of of final energy use improves by intensity relative to history in Rapid
prosperity in emerging economies. more in Net Zero than Rapid, but and Net Zero are a critical factor
Primary energy increases by around these gains are offset in terms of in mitigating the growth in carbon
10% in Rapid and Net Zero and primary energy by the greater use emissions. Other things being equal,
around 25% in BAU. of electricity and hydrogen which if energy intensity over the Outlook
require considerable amounts of improved at the same rate as the
Much of this increase in energy primary energy to produce. past 20 years, carbon emissions by
consumption – the entire growth in 2050 would be more than a quarter
Rapid and Net Zero and over half in Growth of primary energy in BAU higher in Rapid and Net Zero.
BAU – stems from economies which (0.7% p.a.) is faster and more
are urbanizing quickly. sustained than in the other two Policies and actions to promote
scenarios, reflecting slower gains in improvements in energy efficiency
The average rates of growth of energy efficiency. are central to achieving a low-carbon
primary energy in Rapid (0.3% transition.
p.a.) and Net Zero (0.3% p.a.) are
significantly slower than the past
20 years (2.0% p.a.), reflecting a
combination of weaker economic
growth and faster improvements in
energy intensity (energy used per
unit of GDP). Primary energy in both
scenarios broadly plateaus in the
second half of the Outlook.
27 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionGlobal backdrop
28 |
Covid-19 is assumed to have a persistent impact
on economic activity and energy demand
Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid Alternative case: Greater impact from Covid-19
% change as a result of Covid-19
0%
GDP
Primary energy
-2% Oil demand
-4% -3 Mb/d
-2 Mb/d
-5 Mb/d
-6%
-8%
-10%
-5 Mb/d
-12%
2025 2050 2025 2050
Key points
The Covid-19 pandemic is foremost Africa, whose economic structures which is around 3 Mb/d lower in
a humanitarian crisis, but the scale are most exposed to the economic 2025 and 2 Mb/d in 2050 as a result
of the economic cost and disruption ramifications of Covid-19. of the pandemic. The majority of
is also likely to have a significant this reduction reflects the weaker
and persistent impact on the global The pandemic may also lead to a economic environment, with around
economy and energy system. At number of behavioural changes; 1 Mb/d of the reduction in 2025 a
the time of writing, the number of for example, if people choose to result of the various behavioural
new cases from the pandemic is travel less, switch from using public changes. The marginal impacts in
still increasing and so assessing its transport to other modes of travel, BAU and Net Zero are similar.
eventual impact is highly uncertain. or work from home more frequently.
Many of these behavioural changes There is a risk that the economic
The central view used in the main are likely to dissipate over time as losses from Covid-19 may be
scenarios it that economic activity the pandemic is brought under significantly bigger, especially if
partially recovers from the impact control and public confidence is there are further waves of infection.
of the pandemic over the next few restored. But some changes, such This possibility is explored in a
years as restrictions are eased, as increased working from home, ‘greater impact’ case, in which
but that some effects persist. The may persist. Covid-19 reduces the level of global
level of global GDP is assumed to GDP by 4% in 2025 and almost 10%
be around 2.5% lower in 2025 and In Rapid, the impact of the pandemic by 2050. In this ‘greater impact’
3.5% in 2050 as a result of the is assumed to reduce the level of case, the crisis causes the level of
crisis. These economic impacts energy demand by around 2.5% in energy demand in Rapid in 2050 to
disproportionately affect emerging 2025 and 3% in 2050. The impacts be 8% lower, with the level of oil
economies, such as India, Brazil and are most pronounced on oil demand, demand around 5 Mb/d lower.
29 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionGlobal backdrop
30 |
Economic development depends on both access
to energy and the quality of that access
GDP and electricity consumption Proportion of world population with
(per head), 2018 Tier 3* access to electricity or less
The size of the bubbles are proportional to population
80 50%
Countries by
Tier 1 & 2
income group
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Low income
40%
60 Lower middle
GDP per head (PPP ($'000))
income
Upper middle
income 30%
Business-
High income Net Zero as-usual
40 Rapid
Population (million) 20%
500
20
10%
1000
0 0%
0 2500 5000 7500 10000 2018 2050
Annual electricity consumption per head (kWh)
Source: Oxford Economics; BP Statistical Review 2019 *Tier 3 access assumes less than 16 hours of uninterrupted medium
Tiers based on World Bank definitions power electricity during the day and less than 4 hours during the evening
Key points
There is a strong link between The World Bank’s multi-tiered Although the share of the world’s
access to energy and economic framework provides one measure population without any access to
well-being and prosperity. The of quality of access, in which Tier 1 electricity is estimated to have
importance of energy access is access equates to very basic levels declined to 10% in 2018, around
embodied in the UN’s Sustainable of provision (lighting with limited 45% of the world’s population lived
Development Goal (SDG) 7 availability) though to Tier 5, which in countries with Tier 3 access or
which seeks to “ensure access to denotes access to plentiful and below. In all three scenarios, around
affordable, reliable, sustainable and reliable supplies. a quarter of the world’s population
modern energy for all”. in 2050 live in countries or regions
There is a strong link between in which average levels of electricity
One measure monitored by SDG economic development and the consumption are still equivalent to
7 is global access to electricity, quality of the access to electricity: Tier 3 access or below.
where the number of people around three-quarters of low and
without access is estimated to have lower-middle income countries in Improving the quality of electricity
decreased from 1.2 billion in 2010 to 2018 had relatively limited access to access – and energy access more
790 million in 2018*. electricity (Tier 3 or below); whereas generally – across the globe is
over 90% of high-income countries likely to require a range of different
Economic prosperity and had Tier 5 access. policy approaches and technologies,
development depend not just on the including the development of
ability to access electricity, but also decentralized and off-grid power
on the quantity and quality of the generation.
electricity provision.
* Source: Tracking SDG7
The Energy Progress Report 2020
31 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition32 |
Energy use
by sector
Summary
Industry
Non-combusted
Buildings
Transport
33 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionSummary
34 |
Energy consumption grows across all sectors of the economy,
although slower than in the past
Primary energy consumption by end-use sector Annual demand growth and sector contributions
EJ % per annum
800 2.0%
Business- Transport
as-usual
700 Industry
Rapid Net Zero 1.5%
Non-combusted
600
Buildings
500
1.0%
Business-
400 as-usual
0.5%
300
Rapid Net Zero
200
0%
100
0 -0.5%
2018 2050 1990-2018 2018-2050
Key points
The strength and composition of amounts of primary energy to The use of electricity and hydrogen
energy growth over the next 30 produce. As such, increasing the use expand by even more in Net Zero,
years depends importantly on how of these forms of energy carriers particularly in transport and industry.
that energy is used across the main tends to boost primary energy. As a result, even though the pace
sectors of the economy. of underlying efficiency gains in
In Rapid, the growth in primary both sectors is faster than in Rapid,
The industrial sector (excluding energy used in all three sectors the increase in primary energy is
the non-combusted use of fuels) slows relative to the past 20 somewhat greater. Primary energy
consumed around 45% of global years. This deceleration is most used in buildings by 2050 is largely
energy in 2018, with the non- pronounced in the industrial and unchanged from its current level.
combusted use of fuels accounting buildings sectors, with the use of
for an additional 5% or so. The primary energy in both sectors falling In contrast, the use of primary
remainder was used within in the second half of the Outlook. energy increases materially in
residential and commercial buildings In contrast, primary energy used all three sectors in BAU, albeit
(29%) and transport (21%). in transport increases throughout significantly slower than in the past
the Outlook – accounting for nearly 20 years. This deceleration is most
The outlook for primary energy 60% of the total increase in primary marked in industry and transport,
also depends on the form in which energy in Rapid – boosted by with energy use in buildings
that energy is used at the final greater switching to electricity and and the non-combusted sector
point of consumption. In particular, hydrogen. This hydrogen can be together accounting for around half
although it is possible to decarbonize used either directly or combined of the increase in primary energy
the production of electricity and with carbon or nitrogen to make it consumption.
hydrogen, they require considerable easier to transport.
35 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionIndustry
36 |
The use of energy within industry shifts towards developing
economies and lower-carbon energy
Growth of final energy consumption
Primary energy demand in industry in industry by energy carrier
EJ % per annum
350 2.0%
Developed Biomass
+ China
Business-
300 as-usual Emerging 1.5% Hydrogen
(ex. China) Net Zero
Net Zero Business- Electricity
Rapid 1.0%
250 Rapid as-usual
Coal
0.5%
Gas
200
0% Liquids
150 Total
-0.5%
100
-1.0%
50 -1.5%
0 -2.0%
2018 2050 1990 - 2018 2018-2050
Key points
Industrial energy demand in both by the increasing use of electricity The use of coal within industry falls
Rapid and Net Zero is relatively and hydrogen, especially in Net sharply in all three scenarios. In BAU,
flat over the Outlook, dampened Zero, which boosts the demand for the increased demand for energy
by increasing efficiency gains the primary energy used in their is more than met by the growing
in industrial processes and an production. use of gas and electricity, with coal
expansion of the circular economy. consumption falling by around a
Industrial demand in BAU increases The growth of industrial energy third. The demise of coal use in
by around 15% (0.5% p.a.) by 2050, demand in all three scenarios is industry is much more pronounced
which is significantly slower growth concentrated in the emerging world in Rapid and Net Zero where it is
than the past 20 years. (outside of China) – especially, India, almost entirely eliminated in both
Other Asia and Africa – as energy- scenarios by 2050, replaced by
The increasing role of the circular and labour-intensive industrial an increasing share of electricity,
economy in Rapid and Net Zero activities are increasingly relocated biomass and hydrogen. The shift
limits the growth in industrial output, from the developed world and China towards low-carbon energy sources
as materials such as steel, aluminium to lower-cost economies. is most pronounced in Net Zero,
and plastics are used less and are such that the use of gas (and oil)
increasing reused and recycled. also falls substantially by 2050. In
Combined with increasingly efficient contrast, the use of gas in industry in
industrial processes, energy used Rapid is broadly unchanged over the
at the final point of consumption in Outlook.
the industrial sector falls by around
15% by 2050 in Rapid and by 25%
in Net Zero. These falls are offset
37 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionNon-combusted
38 |
The non-combusted use of fuels continues to grow,
but at much reduced rates
Non-combusted demand by fuel Oil feedstock for plastics and fibres
EJ Mb/d
60 20
Rapid Net Zero Business- Coal Rapid
as-usual Net Zero
Gas
50 Business-as-usual
Oil
Extrapolation of past trends
15
40
30 10
20
5
10
0 0
2018 2035 2050 2018 2035 2050 2018 2035 2050 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Key points
The non-combusted use of fuels These actions are greatly intensified Oil accounts for almost two-thirds of
– predominantly as feedstocks in Rapid and Net Zero, with the growth in non-combusted fuels
for petrochemicals, bitumen and increased use of chemical recycling out to 2050 in BAU and around half
fertilizers – is an important source of and a focus on reducing the demand in Rapid, driven in large part by the
incremental demand for fossil fuels, for some products and increasing production of plastics and fibres. The
although less than in the past 20 the reuse of others. As a result, the actions to reduce, reuse and recycle
years as environmental pressures growth of non-combusted fuels plastics means that the level of oil
increase. in Rapid (0.5% p.a.) is half that of used in the production of plastics by
BAU, with use gradually declining in 2050 is around 3 Mb/d lower in BAU
The non-combusted use of fuels the 2040s. In Net Zero, the use of and 6 Mb/d in Rapid relative to an
(oil, natural gas and coal) grows at non-combusted fuels peaks around extrapolation of past trends linked to
an average rate of 1.1% p.a. in BAU, 10-years earlier and by 2050 is the growth in economic activity and
less than half the rate seen over around 25% below current levels. prosperity. These trends are even
the past 20 years (2.7% p.a.). This more pronounced in Net Zero, with
deceleration largely reflects actions oil demand by 2050 2 Mb/d below
to both increase the level of recycling current levels and 10 Mb/d below an
– recycling rates roughly double from extrapolation of past trends.
current levels to around one third by
2050 – and encourage a shift away
from the use of some manufactured
products, such as single-use plastics
and fertilizers.
39 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionBuildings
40 |
Improving living standards in the developing world
drive increasing use of electricity in buildings
Growth of final energy consumption
Primary energy demand in buildings in buildings by energy carrier
EJ % per annum
250 Business- 2.0%
as-usual Emerging Other
Developed 1.5% Business- Hydrogen
Net Zero as-usual
200 Electricity
Rapid 1.0% Rapid
Net Zero
Coal
0.5%
150 Natural gas
0% Oil
100 Total
-0.5%
-1.0%
50
-1.5%
0 -2.0%
2018 2050 1995-2018 2018-2050
Key points
The growth of energy absorbed The efficiency gains are less The increasing use of electricity
by the buildings sector emanates pronounced in BAU, with energy crowds out the demand for oil, gas
entirely from the developing world, consumed in the buildings sector and coal which lose share in all three
as improving wealth and living growing by almost 40% (1.0% p.a.) scenarios. The shift away from
standards allow people to live and by 2050, accounting for around 40% these traditional energies is most
work in greater comfort. of the overall increase in primary pronounced in Rapid and Net Zero,
energy. in which the use of oil in buildings is
In Rapid and Net Zero, a significant largely phased out by 2050, and the
expansion of energy use in buildings Electricity consumption increases demand for gas in buildings falls by
in developing Asia and Africa – materially in all three scenarios, around 50% in Rapid and over 90%
which enjoy some of the most driven by the greater use of lighting in Net Zero.
significant increases in prosperity – and electrical appliances (including
is broadly offset by substantial falls for space cooling) as living standards
in the developed world as efficiency increase.
in new and existing buildings stock
improves, driven by regulations,
carbon prices and consumer
preferences. As a result, overall
energy use in buildings is relatively
little changed over the Outlook in
both Rapid (0.2% p.a.) and Net Zero
(0.1% p.a.).
41 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionTransport
42 |
The growth of energy used in transportation slows,
with oil peaking in mid-to-late 2020s
Share of final energy consumption
Primary energy demand in transport in transport by energy carrier
EJ
Business-
180 Rapid Net Zero as-usual
Emerging 100%
Hydrogen
Net Zero
160 Business- Developed Electricity
Rapid as-usual
80% Gas
140
Biofuels
120 Oil
60%
100
80
40%
60
40
20%
20
0 0%
2018 2050 2018 2050
Key points
The demand for passenger and 25% and 35% respectively by The use of oil in transport peaks in
commercial transportation increases 2050. Primary energy in transport the mid-to-late 2020s in all three
strongly over the Outlook, with road increases by almost 25% in scenarios: the demand for oil for
and air travel doubling in all three BAU, with slower gains in energy road transport in emerging markets
scenarios. The growth in final energy efficiency offset by a smaller shift continues to increase until the early
required to fuel this increased away from oil. 2030s in Rapid and Net Zero, and
travel is offset by significant gains the late 2030s in BAU, but this is
in vehicle efficiency, especially in The growth in primary energy used increasingly offset by falls in the
passenger cars, trucks and aviation. in transport in all three scenarios developed world.
stems entirely from the developing
The gains in energy efficiency are world, as increasing prosperity The share of oil in total final
partially disguised by a shift away in developing Asia, Africa and consumption falls from over 90% of
from oil towards the increasing Latin America supports greater transport demand in 2018 to around
use of electricity and hydrogen demand for passenger and freight 80% by 2050 in BAU, 40% in Rapid
in transport. In particular, the transportation. Energy use in and just 20% in Net Zero. The main
conversion process used to produce transport in the developed world is counterpart is the increasing use of
these energy carriers boosts the broadly flat. electricity, especially in passenger
total amount of primary energy cars and light and medium-duty
absorbed by the transport sector. trucks, along with hydrogen, biofuels
The shift towards electricity and and gas. The share of electricity
hydrogen is most pronounced in in end energy use in transport
Rapid and Net Zero, where overall increases to between 30% and 40%
primary energy increases by around by 2050 in Rapid and Net Zero.
43 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionTransport
44 |
Energy use in road transport is dominated by
electrification and vehicle efficiency
Share of car and truck vehicle Factors impacting passenger car liquid
kilometres electrified* fuels demand over the outlook
Mb/d
100% 40
Electrification
Rapid and switch to
Net Zero 30 other non-liquid fuels
Business-as-usual ICE car
20 fuel efficiency
75%
Increase in
10 passenger
car VKM
0 Change in
50% liquid fuels
-10 demand
-20
25%
-30
-40
0% -50
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Rapid Net Zero Business-
as-usual
*includes buses
Key points
The outlook for energy use in road By 2050, electric vehicles account Despite the accelerated
transport is dominated by two major for between 80-85% of the stock electrification of passenger cars,
trends: increasing electrification and of passenger cars in Rapid and the continuing importance of ICE
improving vehicle efficiency. Net Zero and 35% in BAU. The passenger cars for much of the
corresponding numbers for light and Outlook means that improvements
The electrification of the vehicle medium-duty trucks are 70-80% in their efficiency is the main factor
parc is most pronounced in Rapid and 20%. limiting the growth of oil used in
and Net Zero, concentrated in two passenger cars out to 2050.
and three wheelers, passenger cars The other dominant trend affecting
and light and medium-duty trucks. the use of energy in road transport Vehicle efficiency improvements in
Electric vehicles in Rapid and Net is the increasing levels of vehicle Rapid reduce oil use in passenger
Zero account for around 30% of efficiency, especially passenger cars (and hence emissions)
four-wheeled vehicle kilometres cars, driven by tightening vehicle by roughly twice as much as
(VKM) travelled on roads in 2035 emission standards and rising electrification out to 2050
and between 70-80% in 2050, carbon prices which are largely
compared with less than 1% in borne by consumers in the form of
2018. The corresponding shares in higher gasoline and diesel prices. In
BAU are a little over 10% in 2035 Rapid, the efficiency of a typical new
and around 30% in 2050. internal combustion engine (ICE)
passenger car increases by around
45% over the next 15 years.
45 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionTransport
46 |
The pattern of road transportation changes led by
increasing prosperity and growth of robotaxis
Change in share of road passenger VKM, Robotaxi share of passenger car VKM
2020-2050 powered by electricity
25% 60%
Robotaxi
20% Human taxi Rapid
Own car 50% Net Zero
15%
Business-as-usual
Bus
10%
Light duty truck 40%
5% 2/3 wheelers
0% 30%
-5%
20%
-10%
-15%
10%
-20%
-25% 0%
Rapid Net Zero Business- 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
as-usual
Key points
The composition of road factors, including continuing advances use – up to 9-times greater than
transportation across different in digital technologies such as private cars by 2050. The growing
modes of transport, e.g. private cars, improving connectivity and geospatial penetration of robotaxis, combined
taxis, buses etc, is affected by two technologies. In addition, digital with their intensity of use, means
significant trends over the Outlook: advances enable automated driving that by 2035 they account for around
increasing levels of prosperity and systems and the emergence of fully 40% of passenger VKM powered
the falling cost of shared-mobility autonomous vehicles (AVs) from the by electricity in Rapid and Net Zero
transport services. Both trends have early 2030s in Rapid and Net Zero, and around 20% in BAU. This share
important implications for the pace significantly reducing the cost of declines in the final 10-years or so
and extent to which the transport shared-mobility services, especially in of the Outlook in Rapid and Net Zero
sector is decarbonized. developed economies where average as the share of private ownership of
income levels are higher. The falling electric cars increases.
The increasing levels of prosperity relative cost of autonomous shared-
and living standards in emerging mobility services (robotaxis) leads The potential for robotaxis to help
economies leads to a shift away to a shift away from private-owned decarbonize road transportation by
from high-occupancy forms of vehicles as well as buses. increasing the share of passenger car
transport (e.g. buses) into passenger VKM powered by electricity means
cars. This leads to a reduction in The vast majority of robotaxis are they are supported by government
average load factors (i.e. average electric in all three scenarios. This policies, such as higher road pricing
number of passengers per vehicle), reflects the local air quality benefits and congestion charges for private
putting upward pressure on carbon and lower running costs of electric vehicles, particularly in Rapid and Net
emissions. cars relative to traditional (internal Zero. The importance of robotaxis is
combustion engine). Electric also supported in Net Zero by a shift
The relative cost of shared mobility robotaxis provide a significant cost in societal attitudes towards a sharing
services falls as a result of a range of advantage given the intensity of economy.
47 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionTransport
48 |
Biofuels and hydrogen play a key role in decarbonizing
aviation and marine
Total final energy demand in transport by mode Aviation and marine demand by source
EJ EJ
Aviation
140 20 BAU
Business- Trucks Biofuels
as-usual
Rapid
Passenger vehicle 15 Net Zero Oil
120
Marine 10
100 Rapid
Rail
Net Zero 5
Aviation
80
0
2018 2050
60 Marine
15 BAU Hydrogen
40
Rapid
10 Gas
Net Zero
20 Biofuels
5
Oil
0 0
2018 2050 2018 2050
Key points
Aviation and marine transport In Rapid, liquids demand from and to nearly 60% in Net Zero. In
accounted for around 7 Mb/d and aviation remains relatively stable at contrast, there is minimal growth in
5 Mb/d of oil consumption in 2018 around 7 Mb/d over the course of the share of biofuels in BAU.
respectively. Demand for these the Outlook, as efficiency improves
services increases over the Outlook by around 35%, largely offsetting Unlike aviation, the fuel mix in the
in both Rapid and BAU: growth additional demand for air travel. In shipping sector is able to diversify
in shipping is driven by increased Net Zero, these efficiency savings into hydrogen (either as ammonia
levels of trade; whilst expansion in plus reduced appetite for flying or in liquid form) and LNG, as well
air-travel is underpinned by growing in some markets means liquids as biofuels. In Rapid and Net Zero,
prosperity, especially in emerging demand from aviation peaks in non-fossil fuels account for 40%
economies. In Net Zero, the growth the early 2030s and declines to a and 85% of marine transport fuel by
in air travel by 2050 is around 10% little below 2018 levels by 2050. In 2050 respectively, with more than
lower than in BAU, reflecting in part contrast, liquids demand continues half of that coming from hydrogen.
a shift in societal preferences to to grow throughout the Outlook in Conversely, under BAU, marine
use high-speed rail as an alternative BAU, reaching 10 Mb/d by 2050. demand for oil increases slightly by
to air travel in China and much of 2050, with natural gas increasing
the OECD. Similarly, increasing Biofuels play a critical role in its share of the sector fuel mix to
preference for the consumption decarbonizing the aviation sector, just under 15% and non-fossil fuels
of locally-produced goods and since neither batteries nor hydrogen accounting for just 1%.
reduction in oil trade in Net Zero are able to deliver the necessary
contributes to reduced shipping energy density required for aviation.
demand by around a third by 2050 The share of biofuels in jet-fuel
relative to BAU. increases from less than 1% in 2018
to around 30% by 2050 in Rapid
49 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition50 |
Regions
Summary
Regional energy demand and carbon emissions
Fuel mix across key countries and regions
Global energy trade and energy imbalances
Alternative scenario: Deglobalization
51 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionRegions
52 |
Growth in global energy demand comes
entirely from emerging economies
Primary energy growth
Primary energy consumption by region and regional contributions
EJ % per annum
800 2.5%
Business- Other
as-usual
700 Africa
Rapid Net Zero Other Asia 2.0%
600 India
China 1.5%
500
Developed
400 Total 1.0% Business-
as-usual
300 Rapid Net Zero
0.5%
200
0%
100
0 -0.5%
2018 2050 2000-2018 2018-2050
Key points
Growth in global energy demand Growth of energy consumption in for energy in all three scenarios,
in all three scenarios is driven the emerging economies is led by accounting for over 20% of the
entirely by emerging economies, India and Other Asia, which together world’s energy demand in 2050,
underpinned by increasing account for more than the entire almost twice that of India.
prosperity and improving access increase in primary energy in Rapid
to energy. Energy consumption and Net Zero and almost 60% in Africa’s contribution to demand
in the developed world falls as BAU. India is the largest source of growth increases in the second
improvements in energy efficiency demand growth out to 2050 in all half of the Outlook, supported by
outweigh demands from higher three scenarios. a growing population and rising
levels of activity. prosperity. Even so, Africa’s energy
Growth in China’s energy demand consumption remains small relative
The contrasting energy trends slows sharply relative to past trends, to its size: although around a quarter
in developed and emerging reaching a peak in the early 2030s in of the world’s population are
economies lead to a continuing shift all three scenarios. Indeed, China’s projected to live in Africa in 2050,
in the centre of gravity of energy energy demand in Rapid and Net it accounts for less than 10% of
consumption, with the emerging Zero by 2050 is back close to 2018 total energy demand in all three
world accounting for around 70% of levels, helped by accelerating scenarios.
energy demand by 2050 in all three gains in energy efficiency and a
scenarios, up from around 50% as continuing shift in the structure of
recently as 2008. the economy away from energy-
intensive industries. Despite that,
China remains the largest market
53 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionRegions
54 |
Global differences in energy consumption and carbon emissions
narrow over the Outlook
Energy consumption per head in Rapid Carbon emissions per head in Rapid
GJ per head Tonnes of CO2 per head
300 16
Developed
Rapid Rapid
Emerging 14
250
EU
12
US
200
10
China
150 India 8
6
100
4
50
2
0 0
2018 2050 2018 2050
Key points
A key factor underlying the The degree of this inequality These differences in the current
contrasting trends in energy narrows over the Outlook, reflecting levels of energy consumption
demand in developed and emerging both the sustained increases in between developed and emerging
economies are the significant economic activity and prosperity in economies are also reflected in
differences in the level of energy the emerging world and the marked average carbon emissions per
consumption per capita. falls in energy consumption per capita, offset only partially by the
capita in developed economies: lower average carbon intensity of
In 2018, average energy US energy consumption per capita the fuel mix in the developed world
consumption per capita in the falls by 40% over the Outlook in relative to emerging economies.
developed world was more than Rapid. Even so, by 2050, average
three times that in emerging energy consumption per capita in The differential in carbon emissions
economies, with an average person the developed world in Rapid is still per capita narrows markedly by
in the US consuming 12 times more more than twice that in emerging the end of the Outlook in Rapid.
energy than an average person in economies. Similar convergence in This is almost entirely driven by the
India. energy consumption per head is also narrowing in energy consumption
apparent in Net Zero and BAU. per capita, with the degree of
These differences in energy improvement in the average carbon
consumption largely reflect intensity of the fuel mix broadly
differences in economic similar in developed and emerging
development and prosperity, as well economies.
as a range of other factors, including
economic structure, local climatic
conditions and differences in natural
resource endowments.
55 | bp Energy Outlook: 2020 editionRegions
56 |
The low-carbon transition leads to a gradual convergence
in the fuel mix across countries
Shares of energy sources
2018 Rapid, 2050
Oil Oil 60%
US US
EU EU
China 40% China
India India
20%
Renewables 60% 40% 20% 0% Natural Renewables 0% Natural
gas gas
Coal Coal
Key points
As well as differences in the significantly smaller shares. This supported by higher carbon prices
pattern of energy demand growth contrasts with China and India, and other policies. This shift is also
across developing and emerging where coal currently accounts for reflected in a move away from the
economies, the nature of the energy between 55-60% of primary energy. use of coal, which is substantially
transition also depends on variations reduced in China and India in Rapid
in the fuel mix in different parts of The transition to a lower-carbon by 2050, and entirely phased-out in
the world. energy system in Rapid is driven by the US and EU.
several common trends which lead
There are marked differences in to a gradual convergence in the fuel These trends also help drive a
the current mix of energy used mix across all four countries. convergence in the role of natural
across countries and regions, as gas, with its share declining in US
illustrated, for example, by the Most significant is the growing and EU, and increasing in China and
varying importance of different competitiveness of renewable India, such that by 2050 it accounts
energy sources in US, EU, China energy, which combined with its for between 15-25% of energy in all
and India. These differences reflect widespread availability and the four countries.
numerous factors including the increasing electrification of the
level of economic development and energy system, leads renewable A similar degree of convergence is
the cost and availability of different energy to be the single largest also apparent in Net Zero. Although
energy sources. energy source in all four countries in the same qualitative trends are
Rapid by 2050, providing between apparent in BAU, the more limited
The current fuel mix in the US 45-55% of energy supplies. progress made in phasing out
and EU have some similarities, coal use in China and India means
with oil and gas accounting for the The growth in renewables (including the degree of convergence is
majority of energy supplies, and bioenergy) is part of a broader trend considerably less.
coal and renewable energy having towards a lower carbon fuel mix,
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