Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
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Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan 2015.2.17 JASP
1.The Accident of Fukushima Daiichi 2.Change of Nuclear Regulatory System 3. Energy In Japan 4.Electricity System Reform 5.Nuclear 6.Conclusion
1,The Accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS • The accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS was caused by long lasting complete power loss due to common cause failure (CCF) of electrical equipment following tsunami, and insufficient provision against severe accident. • It is rated at INES Level 7, and people where lived in the specific area including those within 20 km radius from the site are still not able to return home. The moment when tsunami attacked Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS (source: TEPCO) 3
Assumed Height and Actual Height of 〔Onagawa NPS〕 Not flooded Actual Assumed (unit: m) Tsunami in Each NPS Sea Water height of height of Building Pump tsunami tsunami 13 Site Level 14.8 13.6 Point of normal 3.5 water level 震度 5 境界線 The boundary of the 女川原子力 seismic intensity of 5 Onagawa NPS Sea water Level 発電所 〔Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS〕 Destructive flood In front of NPS D/G on a basement submerged. 13 震央 Epicenter 10 6.1 4 Onahama Port 福島第一 Fukushima 〔Fukushima Dai-ni NPS〕 Sea water pumps flooded. Damage of Dai-ichi NPS buildings were slight. 発電所 福島第二 Fukushima 9 Dai-ni NPS 発電所 12 5.2 東海第二 4 Onahama Tokai Dai-ni Port 発電所 NPS 〔Tokai Dai-ni NPS〕 Sea water pumps did not flood due to breakwater wall breakwater wall JMA 1st report during the 4.6 Seismic 気象庁(第1報) main shock 8 5.7 intensity 5- 5+ 6- 6+ 3.3 Reference: JMA “Tohoku District-Off the Pacific Coast Earthquake in 2011(1st Tokyo Bay 4 Report),” http;//www.jma.go.jp/jma/index.html, partially modified by JNES
Progression of Accident (Outline of Accident Progression Common to Units 1-3) Automatic reactor shutdown due to earthquake, loss of off-site power supply Soaking depletion of battery, depletion of compressed air, etc. Dependency on emergency power was Many on-site works were necessary due to difficulty of inevitable. measurement / control / communication. ●Emergency diesel generator started up and Shutdown of core cooling system power supply was secured. ●Reactor was cooled by core cooling system. Unit 1 has lost its function at an early phase. Due to this reason, there was only short time to address the Start-up / Shutdown operations for IC・RCIC situation. were going on. Fuels were exposed and melt down while cooling was not conducted. Most of electric systems including emergency diesel generators and switchboards were Serious degradation of confinement led to the release unavailable due to tsunami. of radioactive materials into environment. (Only one of emergency air cooling DGs in Unit 6 maintained its function) Water injection from fire protection system (Alternative Cooling sea water pumps installed along the water injection) coast were also unavailable. (Loss of ultimate heat sink) The exposure time of fuels is considered to be prolonged due to insufficient reactor depressurization (reactor depressurization operation for containment, reactor containment depressurization [vent]) to the pressure Station Blackout lower than the fire extinguishing pump head. (On March 13, Unit 5 received power supply from Unit 6 on emergency basis. ) Hydrogen generated through zirconium – water reaction. Motor operated pumps etc. were unavailable. Explosions that seemed to be hydrogen explosion occurred (Emergency cooling was carried out by emergency condenser IC in Unit 1, reactor in reactor buildings at Units 1, 3 and 4. (Pressure in the core isolation cooling system [RCIC] in Unit 2, pressure suppression chamber in Unit 2 dropped and RCIC and high pressure core injection simultaneously with the Unit 4 explosion.) system HPCI in Unit 3.) The explosions deteriorated work performance in the surrounding areas. Water leakage from containments / buildings were observed. 5
Max. Acceleration Values Observed in Reactor Buildings of each Unit Record Max. response Loc. of seismometer acceleration to the (bottom floor of Max. acceleration design basis ground reactor bld.) (Gal※2) motion Ss (Gal※2) NS EW UD NS EW UD Unit 1 460※1 447※1 258※1 487 489 412 Unit 2 348※1 550※1 302※1 441 438 420 Fukushima Unit 3 322※1 507※1 231※1 449 441 429 Dai-ichi Unit 4 281※1 319※1 200※1 447 445 422 Unit 5 311※1 548※1 256※1 452 452 427 Unit 6 298※1 444※1 244 445 448 415 ※1:Each recording was interrupted at around 130-150(s) from recording start time ※2:1Gal=0.01m/s2 , 981Gal=1G 6
Impact of Tsunami on On-site Power Supply and Cooling Systems Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 5 Unit 6 △ × × 6A: R/B basement Emergency × 2A × 4A × 6B: DG building Diesel 1A, 1B (T/B basement) 3A, 3B (T/B basement) 5A, 5B 1F Generator (T/B basement) 2B (T/B basement) 4B (T/B basement) (Usable) (Common pool 1F) (Common pool 1F) HPCS: R/B basement high-voltage × × × × × △ switch T/B basement, T/B basement, T/B 1F T/B basement, etc. T/B basement, etc. R/B 2F basement boards etc. etc. × △ Power center × △ △ △ T/B basement, R/B 2F basement, (note) T/B 1F etc. T/B 1F etc. T/B 1F, etc. T/B 2F, etc. etc. etc. × ○ ○ ○ DC power × × C/B basement, T/B mezzanine T/B mezzanine T/B mezzanine (battery) C/B basement, etc. C/B basement, etc. etc. basement basement basement Emergency △ △ core However, IC △ (RCIC and HPC - - - cooling required (RCIC usable) usable) equipment inspection ×: Unusable due to flooding or water damage △: Partially unusable ○: Usable T/B: Turbine building C/B: Control building R/B: Reactor building (Note) Air circuit breaker (ACB), guard relay and peripheral equipment stored in a compact manner using a motive power panel that uses low-voltage circuits within the plant 7
Impact on Loss of Function of Confinement Systems • Radioactive material leakage presumably occurred when the pressure of the PCV was increased before the venting because the radioactive dose had increased after increasing of the pressure of the PCV of the Unit 1. Possible location of leakage was top flange, penetration of the containment vessel and/or equipment hatches. • It is highly possible that the leakages were caused by deterioration of the organic sealing as a result of high temperatures by thermal radiation directly from the pressure vessel. • When venting was conducted, the standby gas treatment systems (SGTS) was not properly isolated, thus hydrogen gas back flew into the reactor building. (in particular, Unit 4) 8
Technical Knowledge acquired from the Accident In order to address root causes in a practical manner, we has closely investigated accident in the areas of: – External power supply systems – On-site power supply systems – Cooling systems – Confinement systems – Communication, instrumentation and control systems, and emergency response arrangements 9
2.Change of Nuclear Regulatory System Reform of Nuclear Regulatory Organization /Independence Separate the functions for nuclear regulation and nuclear promotion Establish the Nuclear Regulation Authority(NRA) as an independent commission body Amendments to the Nuclear Regulation Act /New regulation on severe accidents /Regulation based on the state-of-the art information (backfiting) /40-years operational limit for NPPs (exceptional less-than-20 years extension) New Regulatory Requirement Principle of Regulation /Strengthening of Design Basis /Place emphasis of Defense-in-Depth /Severe Accident Measures /Eliminate common cause failure /Enhanced Measures for Earthquake/Tsunami /Protective measures against extreme natural hazards
Strengthening of Design Basis /Comprehensive consideration of natural hazards including volcano, tornado and forest fire in addition to earthquake and tsunami, etc /Reinforcement of fire protection measures /Enhanced reliability of SSCs important to safety (e.g. Redundancy of piping) /Reinforcement of off-site power supply (connection to different substations through multiple lines) /Protection of systems for Ultimate Heat Sink
Strengthen Requirement of Counter Measures for Severe Accident (SA) Prevention of Core Damage (ATWS, Loss of RCF・RDF・RCF・UHF etc.) Prevention of Containment Failure (CV spray, Filtered venting etc.) Prevention of hydrogen explosion at reactor building etc. Cooling at SFP Prevention of fuel damages during shutdown Emergency Response Center
Enhanced Measures for Earthquake/Tsunami Tsunami More Stringent /Define “Design Basis Tsunami” – Exceeds the Standards on Tsunami largest in the historical records Enlarged Application of /SSCs for Tsunami protective measures such Higher Seismic Resistance as Tsunami Gate are classified as Class S equivalent to RPV etc. Earthquake /Active faults with activities later than the Late Pleistocene More Stringent Criteria be considered for seismic design for active faults /Active in the Middle Pleistocene be investigated if needed More Precise methods to /3D observation of geological structure on the site define seismic ground motion Class S buildings should not be constructed on the Displacement and Deformation exposure of active faults
3.Energy in Japan After the Great East Japan Earthquake and the TEPCO’s Fukushima nuclear accident, the circumstance of energy in Japan has changed drastically as follows: /No NPS operation・・・288Gkwh(2010) Lost /LNG import increase・・・73.3Mt(2010) 85.9Mt(2011),90.1Mt(2013) /Energy Consumption Down・・15.0EJ(2010) 14.5EJ(2011),14.2(2013) /Electricity Tariff Increase 20 to 30% /Increase Fuel Cost・・・3.6Trillion Yen (30 billion US$)/year (2013)
LNG is major energy source cover the loss of NPS Mt LNG Import by Country (Japan) Mt Long Term Import 2011 Import 2010 90.0 UAE 4.3 5.6 5.1 80.0 Burnei 6.0 6.2 5.9 70.0 60.0 Malaysia 15.4 15.1 14.6 50.0 Indonesia 5.8 7.9 12.9 40.0 Quatar 6.0 14.3 7.7 30.0 Oman 3.0 4.2 2.7 20.0 Australia 13.3 13.6 13.2 10.0 Russia 4.9 7.8 6.0 0.0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 U.S.A 0.2 0.6 US Burnei UAE Indonesia Malaysia Australia Others 9.0 1.5 Quatar Oman Equatorial Guinea Total 58.8 83.2 70.6 Russia Others
Diversification of Energy Supply after Oil Crisis mainly by Nuclear Primary Energy Supply in Japan 25000 PJ Primary Energy Supply in Japan 100% 20000 90% 80% 70% 15000 60% 50% 10000 40% 30% 5000 20% 10% 0 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Coal Oil Gas Renewable Hydro Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Renewable Hydro Nuclear
Increase Nuclear Energy Supply for last 4 Decades Primary Energy Supply in Japan Primary Energy Supply in Japan 100% 350 90% 300 80% 70% 250 60% 200 50% 150 40% 30% 100 20% 50 10% 0 0% 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1986 1989 1990 1992 1996 1999 2000 2005 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1986 1989 1990 1992 1996 1999 2000 2005 Oil Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Renewable Oil Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Renewable
After Fukushima, Energy Figure in Japan goes back to almost 4 decades ago PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 1990 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2010 Nuclear Nuclear Coal 11% Hydro 9% Coal 17% Hydro 4% 23% Renewable 3% Renewable 3% 4% Gas 11% Gas 19% Oil Oil 56% 40% PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2012 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2013 Nuclear Renewable Hydro Nuclear Renewable Hydro 3% 1% 3% 1% 4% Coal 4% Coal 23% 25% Gas Gas 25% 24% Oil Oil 44% 43%
Maintain High Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency 0.9 Energy Efficiency Trend 0.8 1.600 0.7 1.400 0.6 1.200 toe/kUS$ 1.000 toe/kUS$ 0.5 0.800 0.4 0.600 0.3 0.400 0.2 0.200 0.1 0.000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Japan World OECD Russia China India Souce:IEA Energy Efficiency Trend 0.300 EJ Energy Demand & GDP TYen 0.250 18.00 600 16.00 0.200 toe/kUS$ 500 14.00 0.150 12.00 400 10.00 0.100 300 8.00 0.050 6.00 200 4.00 0.000 100 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.00 0.00 0 Japan US Germany UK France EU27 OECD 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Industry Residencial Business Transport GDP
Decline of Coal consumption in 2011,2012 links with Total energy demand. Changes of Power Supply Sources in Japan NaturalGas Coal OIl Hydro Nuclear Renewable
4.History of Electricity System Reform in Japan No competition in the electricity market before 1995. 10 vertically integrated GEUs(General Electricity Utilities) dominated and controlled the market 1995 ・Open the IPP (Independent Power Producer) market 2000 ・Introduce partial retail competition (>2000kw) ・Accounting separation of Transmission/Distribution sector 2005 ・Expand retail competition(>50kw) ・Establish the whole sale power exchange(JEPX) (2008) ・Modify the rule of wheeling rates
Current electricity system ・Partial liberalization : retail competition for over 50kw Negative aspects of regional monopoly were revealed customers by 3.11 ・Retail players : 10 big GEUs(vertically integrated, regional 1.Lack of system to transmit electricity beyond monopoly), PPS, etc regions. ・Situation is… 2.Little competition and strong price control ・Share of non-GEU power producer and supplier : 3.6% 3. Limit in digesting the change in energy mix (cf. ・0.6% of the total retail market sales is transacted at JEPX renewables)
Decision on Electricity System Reform in 2013 ・The Cabinet decided to execute the Policy on Electricity System Reform on April 2, 2013 Objectives: /Securing the stable supply /Suppressing electricity rates to the maximum extent possible /Expanding choices for consumers and business opportunities Process: A bold reform will be steadily carried out step by step focusing on the 3 agendas: /Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators(by 2015) /Full Retail Competition in around 2016 (regulated tariff expired by 2020) /Unbundle the transmission/distribution sector by 2020
5.Nuclear Power Plants in Japan Tomari BWR Higashidori PWR Tsuruga Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NRA Mihama Onagawa Takahama 40years Shika Fukushima-Daiichi Decom. Ooi Fukushima-Daini Shimane Tokai-Daini Genkai Hamaoka Ikata Sendai
Sendai2 Kashiwazaki Hamaoka2 kariwa1 Fukushima- Takahama1 Mihama3 Tokai-Daini Ooi2 Sendai1 Hamaoka3 Daini3 Fukuhima- Fukushima- Fukushima- Fukushima- Fukushima- Fukushima- Mihama1 Takahama2 Onagawa1 Takahama4 Tomari1 Daiichi2 daiichi3 Daiichi4 Daiichi6 Daini1 Daini4 Fukushima- Fukushima- Fukushima- Tokai Tsuruga1 Mihama2 Shimane1 Genkai1 Hamaoka1 Ikata1 Ooi1 Genkai2 Ikata2 Takahama3 Tsuruga2 Shimane2 Daiichi1 Daiichi5 Daini2 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 Hamaoka4 Kashiwazaki Ikata3 kariwa3 Kashiwazaki Kashiwazaki Ooi3 Shika1 Genkai4 Higashidori1 kariwa2 kariwa4 Kashiwazaki Kashiwazaki Kashiwazaki Tomari2 Ooi4 Genkai3 Onagawa2 Onagawa3 Hamaoka5 Shika2 Tomari3 kariwa5 kariwa6 kariwa7 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Process of Resuming Nuclear Power Plant in Japan Reactor Installation Construction Tech-Spec Construction NRA Permission Approval Approval Inspection Submit Permit Submit Approve Submit Approve Approve Licensee Assessment of Change Change of Construction Change of Operation in Reactor Installation Plan Tech-Spec Request Approval Local Safety Agreement Government with Licensee
Poll for Nuclear (Necessity of NPS) 100% 1.8 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.3 2.4 2.6 3.8 4.6 1.5 3.4 13.1 13.7 90% 16.7 19.9 80% 23.1 12.1 10.9 70% 28.3 60% 31.4 35.9 38.1 30.3 50% 40% 30% 22 49.1 23.4 20% 40.5 37.7 10% 15.7 12.6 0% 2007 Yes 2008 Probably Yes Yes or NO2010Probably No No Others 2011 2012
Nuclear Capacity NPS total Capacity at the Accident 48.96Mkw 48.96 Fukushima-Daiich 4.696Mkw Decommission Process 44.264 39.864 Fukushima-Daini 4.4Mkw Too Difficult to resume Tsuruga Unit2 1.16Mkw Fault line Issue 38.704 5 first generation NPS difficult to fit 40years rule 36.488 Max (Tsuruga1, Mihama 1,2, Shimane1, Genkai1) 2.216Mkw Twenty NPS submit TA report to NRA 20.10Mkw Hamaoka Longer Construction 1.137Mkw Sendai Unit1, 2 Approved by NRA 1.78Mkw Simane, Onagawa,Ikata Midst of the Review 2.535Mkw Takahama Unit3, 4 Just Approved 1.74Mkw Ikata Unit 3 Close to finish soon 0.89Mkw Kashiwazakikariwa, Tokai Daini Difficulty to get Ooi Unit3,4 Close to finish soon 2.36Mkw agreement with Local Government 3.812Mkw Genkai Unit 3,4 Close to finish soon 2.36Mkw Tomari,Higashidori,Shika Fault line issue 4.375Mkw
Not Submit Yet NPSs 18Unit 16.388Mkw Onagawa 1,3 1.349Mkw Fault Issue only Kashiwazakikariwa 1-5 5.5Mkw Unit2-4 never operated since 2007 Hamaoka 3,5 2.48Mkw Longer Construction Takahama 1,2 1.652Mkw Challenge 40years Qualify Mihama3, Ooi 1,2 3.176Mkw Consider 40years challenge Shika1, Ikata 1,2 Genkai 2 2.231Mkw 40 years challenge soon , Already changed RV New Plant Shimane Unit3 1.373Mkw 93.6%complete Ohma 1.383Mkw 37.6%complete Submit to NRA
NPR Total Capacity in Japan Utilization Rate of NPS in Japan 10kMW 80 6000 70 5000 60 4000 50 3000 40 2000 30 1000 20 0 10 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 0 GCR BWR PWR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NPS Capacity under 40years Rule Capacity 40 year Challenge Case for Submited NPSs Only 4000 2000 3500 1800 3000 1600 1400 2500 1200 2000 1000 800 1500 600 1000 400 200 500 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Conclusion [Issues to be discussed] /How many NPS resume / Appropriate Size and Level of Tariff in FIT for Renewable /How to improve energy efficiency /Power System Reform /Gas System Reform /Global Warming Issues related with the Usage of Coal /Political Turmoil in MENA
0 40 60 80 100 140 160 20 120 Apr-1983 32500 33500 34000 34500 35000 35500 36000 36500 37500 33000 37000 Aug-1984 Dec-1985 Apr-1987 Aug-1988 Dec-1989 Apr-1991 Aug-1992 2009 Dec-1993 OPEC Apr-1995 Aug-1996 Dec-1997 2010 WTI Apr-1999 Iran Aug-2000 Dec-2001 2011 Apr-2003 Iraq Aug-2004 Political Turmoin in MENA Dec-2005 Apr-2007 2012 Aug-2008 Libya Dec-2009 Apr-2011 Aug-2012 2013 Dec-2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 0 20 60 80 100 120 140 160 40 1997.11 1998.07 1999.03 1999.11 2000.07 2001.03 2001.11 2002.07 Dubai 2003.03 2003.11 2004.07 2005.03 2005.11 Brent 2006.07 2007.03 2007.11 2008.07 WTI 2009.03 2009.11 2010.07 2011.03 Crude Oil Price & Import by China China 2011.11 2012.07 2013.03 2013.11 0 5000 10000 15000 25000 30000 20000
2003/5~8
Order of the Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority De-Baathification of Iraqi Society May 16, 2003 On April 16, 2003 the Coalition Provisional Authority disestablished the Baath Party of Iraq. This order implements that declaration by eliminating the party’s structures and removing its leadership from positions of authority and responsibility in Iraqi society. By this means, the Coalition Provisional Authority will ensure that representative government in Iraq is not threatened by Baathist elements returning to power and that those in positions of authority in the future are acceptable to the people of Iraq. Full members of the Baath Party holding the ranks of ‘Udw Qutriyya (Regional Command Member), ‘Udw Far‘ (Branch Member), ‘Udw Shu’bah (Section Member), and ‘Udw Firqah (Group Member) (together, “Senior Party Members”) are hereby removed from their positions and banned from future employment in the public sector. These Senior Party Members shall be evaluated for criminal conduct or threat to the security of the Coalition. Those suspected of criminal conduct shall be investigated and, if deemed a threat to security or a flight risk, detained or placed under house arrest. Individuals holding positions in the top three layers of management in every national government ministry, affiliated corporations and other government institutions (e.g., universities and hospitals) shall be interviewed for possible affiliation with the Baath Party, and subject to investigation for criminal conduct and risk to security. Any such persons determined to be full members of the Baath Party shall be removed from their employment. This includes those holding the more junior ranks of ‘Udw ( rse information. the same manner upon ppropriate, detained, interned placed under house arrest,Member) and ‘Udw ‘Amil (Active Member), as well as those determined to be Senior Party Members. Displays in government buildings or public spaces of the image or likeness of Saddam Hussein or other readily identifiable members of the former regime or of symbols of the Baath Party or the former regime are hereby prohibited. Rewards shall be made available for information leading to the capture of senior members of the Baath party and individuals complicit in the crimes of the former regime. The Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority or his designees may grant exceptions to the above guidance on a case-by-case basis. By order of: L. Paul Bremer, III Administrator, Coalition Provisional Authority ________________________
CPA • Military Civil • Cooperation with Iraqi Officials • Too many personal changes
Cooperation with Executives 2003 at Bagdad 2013 at Tokyo 2015 at Tokyo
6.Conclusion(Cont.) /Japanese Government has not determined the quantitative target of energy supply by sources yet. /It will be published after the Unified Local Election in the spring of 2015. /The share of nuclear would be put between 15 to 25 % of power supply . /It could be possible to achieve but it takes at least 4 to 5 years. /It reduce tentative demand for LNG to some extent but the loss of power demand would be compensate by increase demand in the field of cogeneration. /LNG should compete with Coal by any means. /FIT system for renewable energy will be redesigned soon and electricity market reform will be conducted by 2020.
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