Emerging economic developments - real-time economic domestic indicators 14 April 2021
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Emerging economic developments - real-time economic domestic indicators 14 April 2021 Prepared by the Economics Division, Department of Finance www.gov.ie/finance
Executive Summary
To assess economic activity in real-time, the Department has compiled a set of
alternative, ‘ultra-high’ frequency data for different sectors of the economy, including
card payments, hiring rates, mobility and road traffic data.
As we enter the middle of April, Ireland’s cases and fatalities are amongst the lowest
in Europe with cases continuing to rise in some countries, although the economic
restrictions in place in Ireland remain comparatively strict.
Ireland in line with the EU average level of vaccination, measured by the percentage
of the population who have received their first dose. The speed at which this measure
increases will have significant influence on the ability of the economy to fully recover
from this crisis.
The economic impact of these restrictions are that around 420,000 people are
currently in receipt of the COVID-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP), a
decrease of around 16,000 from the previous week.
Although not as low as the Spring 2020 trough, payments data shows spending has
remained below the pre-pandemic baseline since the turn of the year although has
been slowly recovering to be only 5 to 10 per cent below this pre-pandemic baseline.
Indicators of mobility (traffic levels, presence at transport stations) - a proxy for
economic activity - have also continued to tick up slightly in recent weeks in advance
of mobility restrictions being lifted.
There are some promising signs in labour market data from Indeed, with job postings
continuing their recovery, albeit slowly.
In line with the continuation of restrictions on the hospitality sector, booking figures
in restaurants are 100 per cent down on last year.
Department of Finance Page | iiFigure 1.1 – COVID-19 cumulative 14-day incidence per
100,000 population.
2000 Latest developments: Sharp rise in cases in some European
countries
1800
Many European countries have seen a resurgence in the
1600 virus in recent weeks associated with the spread of the
B.117 variant.
1400 Ireland’s case numbers recorded a sharp decline after Level
5 restrictions were introduced. This rate of decline has
1200 moderated in recent weeks.
EE The level in Ireland is now equivalent to those seen before
1000
Christmas.
800
FR
600 SE
NL
AT
400 IT
DE
200 DK
IE
0 GB
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
Source: John Hopkins University/Our World in Data.
Data: 12-04-2021
Figure 1.2 – COVID-19 fatalities, 14 day cumulative, per
million population
350 Latest developments: Fatalities continue to fall
After a relatively stable summer period, COVID-19 fatalities
300
rose sharply in many European countries during winter.
Ireland experienced a sharp increase in COVID-19 fatalities in
250 January, during the third wave of infection.
Some countries, such as France and Estonia have seen a
200 recent increase in fatalities leading to the re-introduction of
restrictions.
150
EE
FR
100 NL
SE
BE
50 AT
DE
GB
0 IE Source: John Hopkins University/Our World in Data.
IT
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
DK Data: 12-04-2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 1Figure 1.3 – Percentage of population who have received
first dose of vaccine (as of 12th April)
Latest developments: Considerable variation in vaccine
United Kingdom 46.85 rollout speed
Malta
Hungary
Britain has a considerable lead in the administration of
Finland
Estonia
vaccines to date having approved the Pfizer-BioNTech,
Lithuania Moderna and Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccines at an earlier
Austria date.
Slovakia
Slovenia
The rollout of vaccinations focussed on healthcare staff
Germany and vulnerable groups to date, with more widespread
Spain vaccine availability expected in April, May and June.
Belgium
France
Portugal
Denmark
Italy
Ireland
Cyprus
Greece
Sweden
Czechia
Romania
Croatia Source: Our World in Data.
Latvia Data: As available 12-04-2021.
Bulgaria
0 10 20 30 40
Figure 1.4 – Lockdown stringency index
100 Latest developments: Ireland’s lockdown among strictest
90 Ireland’s lockdown was among the latest to begin, in
keeping with infections arriving later.
IE, IT
80 GB Sweden meanwhile has had the most lenient measures
DE throughout most of the pandemic period.
70 FR
ES, SE This stringency index declined during December as
US restrictions on retail, hospitality and household visits were
60
eased.
50
Ireland’s stringency index rose following the reintroduction
of Level 5 restrictions and remains comparatively strict. It
40
has fallen slightly in recent weeks as schools partially re-
opened.
30
20
10
Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker,
0 Blavatnik School of Government.
01/08/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
Data: 09-04-2021
Source: Department of Finance.
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 2Figure 1.5 – Underlying Economic Activity
2 Latest developments: Department’s underlying economic
activity indicator still well below average
1
The chart to the left shows the Department’s underlying
economic indicator based on a dataset of 76 monthly
0 economic indicators of domestic economic activity. 1
It is expressed as deviations from the average growth rate
-1
over the period 1999-2020, with a value of zero equal to
the average.
-2
This indicator shows that domestic economic activity hit an
all-time low in April of last year before recovering over the
-3
Summer.
-4 It declined with the reintroduction of restrictions in late
December and has remained low.
-5 This is consistent with a number of high frequency
indicators presented throughout this chart pack.
-6 For more detail on the method used see Daly and Rehill
2016M01
2006M01
2006M11
2007M09
2008M07
2009M05
2010M03
2011M01
2011M11
2012M09
2013M07
2014M05
2015M03
2016M11
2017M09
2018M07
2019M05
2020M03
2021M01
(2020).
Source: Department of Finance.
Figure 1.6 – Ireland Purchasing Managers Index by sector
70 Latest developments: Strong rebound in Services PMI
The Manufacturing PMI for March showed a surge in
60
activity in the sector, jumping to 57.1 from 52 in
February and 51.8 in January. This takes the index
50 back up to its peak readings of recent years
The Services PMI staged a strong rebound in March,
40 with the business activity index rising to 54.6 from its
depressed levels of 41.2 in February and 36.2 in
January. This signals improved business conditions in
30 the sector rather than activity returning to more
normal levels.
20
The Construction PMI in Ireland rose to 30.9 in March
2021 from February's reading of 27. However, this
10 was the third straight month of fall in the
construction sector, amid the pandemic-related
restrictions.
0
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-19
Jul-19
Jul-20
Apr-18
Apr-20
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Source: IHS Markit.
Data: 12-04-2021
Construction Manufacturing Services
1
See Daly and Rehill (2020) “Where are we now? Examining Irish Economic Developments in Real-Time” for further detail on
Department’s nowcasting models.
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 3Figure 1.7 – Total expenditure in Ireland, per user
(indexed to 1st February, 7 day moving average)
Latest developments: increase in spending in line with
160 Level 5 1 mobility indicators
Schools Close Level 3 nationwide
nationwide
140
0.9 There are approximately 1.2 million Revolut users in
'Stay at home' Ireland, a digital banking app, accounting for over 25
order 0.8 per cent of the adult population. However, Revolut
120 users tend to be from younger cohorts.
0.7 From the early April low, the measure had seen
steady recovery and for much of the summer was
100
0.6 above the pre-pandemic level.
The Revolut measure is consistent with the CSO
80 0.5 Retail Sales Index and Central Bank Credit and Debit
Return to Statistics.
Level 3
0.4 There has been an increase in spending in recent
60 nationwide weeks following the late December decline when
Full Level 5
restrictions
lockdown measures were introduced. Daily spending
0.3
now stands 5-10 per cent below its pre-pandemic
40
baseline.
0.2
20 Source: Revolut.
Re-opening 0.1 Note: See Central Bank, Credit and Debit Card Statistics;
Phases CSO, Retail Sales Index.
0 0
01/09/2020
01/02/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
Figure 1.8 – Total transactions per user expenditure
(normalised to avg. spend in February, 7 day moving
average)
1.8 Latest developments: spending stable despite resurgent
virus
1.6
Seasonal shopping see a common spike in spending
1.4 across countries in late December.
1.2 Following the Christmas period and re-introduction
IT
of restrictions, spending in Ireland and many other
1 DE, IE countries rapidly fell below the pre-pandemic
FR baseline.
0.8 AT
ES Spending in most countries in this series has
DK remained relatively stable in recent weeks, despite
0.6
GB
the resurgence of virus in many European countries.
SE
0.4
Source: Revolut.
0.2
0
01/02/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 4Figure 1.9– Ireland average daily expenditure per user
by sector, (February=1)
3 Latest developments: gradual increases in many
categories
2.5
Spending in most Revolut categories has remained
relatively stable following the dramatic fall in
2
spending when lockdown measures were
reintroduced, with gradual increases in recent
weeks.
1.5 Travel and restaurant spending are currently the
furthest below the baseline due to restrictions on
hospitality and overseas travel.
1
There has been a slow increase in transport
spending, in line with the gradual increase seen in
0.5 mobility.
0
01/04/2020
01/03/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
GROCERIES HEALTH
RESTAURANTS SHOPPING
TRANSPORT TRAVEL Source: Revolut.
Figure 1.10 – Total expenditure by age cohort, per
user (indexed to avg. February spend, 7 day moving
1.8 Latest developments: gradual rise in many groups
Expenditure among the youngest and oldest cohorts
1.6
suffered the biggest falls in spending during the
‘first-wave’ of restrictions.
1.4
This possibly reflected labour market conditions –
where a greater proportion of young workers were
1.2 in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment
than other cohorts (Roantree, 2020) and the
‘cocooning’ requirements for older groups.
1
There has been differential impacts in the speed at
which cohorts respond to restriction levels being
0.8
changed, while they also may differ in their shifts
away from cash to card.
0.6
The oldest cohorts showed the sharpest declines in
spending following the most recent introduction of
0.4 18-24 25-34 35-44 restriction, while they had seen a more modest
45-54 55-64 65-74 recoveries in spending beforehand.
75+
0.2 Source: Revolut
01/02/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
Note: See Roantree, B (2020) ‘Job Loss Distribution’.
Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2020 (ESRI)
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 5Figure 1.11 – Share of Irish spending, physical vs.
online
Latest developments: yo-yoing in online spending levels
80
70
The pandemic led to an increase in a proportion of
expenditure carried out online, accounting for 30
per cent of total expenditure in early February, to
60 close to 50 per cent in late April in 2020.
50 However this trend was reversed as restrictions
were lifted.
40 Since restrictions began to be re-introduced in
October, a sharp increase in the proportion of
30 spending taking place online has been observed.
Online spending spiked in late November with the
20 Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events.
While physical spending spiked during the
10 Christmas season, it has reversed following the
closure of non-essential retail.
0
Spending online has remained close to 50 per cent
01/02/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
of Revolut during the current set of Level 5
restrictions.
Source: Revolut
Physical Online
Figure 1.12 – Job postings (vs. 1st February 2020)
10 Latest developments: Slow recovery in job postings
continues
0
Both new and total job postings have been slowly
-10 approaching their pre-pandemic baseline
following the large fall in Spring 2020.
-20
-30
As of April 2021, total postings are around 15 per
-40 cent below the baseline, while new postings are
just a few per cent below the baseline.
-50
-60
-70
-80
01/02/2020
24/02/2020
18/03/2020
10/04/2020
03/05/2020
26/05/2020
18/06/2020
11/07/2020
03/08/2020
26/08/2020
18/09/2020
11/10/2020
03/11/2020
26/11/2020
19/12/2020
11/01/2021
03/02/2021
26/02/2021
21/03/2021
new postings total postings
Source: Indeed; Data: 12-04-2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 6Figure 1.17 – Income support programmes, persons
Latest developments: 421,000 people are currently in receipt
Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (currently in receipt) of the PUP.
1,400,000 Live register
Around 420,000 people are in receipt of the COVID-
Pandemic Unemployment Payment 19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) on 12-
1,200,000 April, a decrease of approximately 16,000 compared
to the previous week, and around 28 per cent lower
1,000,000 than the peak on 5th May 2020.
800,000
These payments are in addition to the 183,000 people
on the Live Register at end March, and 307,000
supported by the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme
600,000 (EWSS) in March.
400,000 In total, around 912,000 are in in receipt of some form
of income support currently, down from a peak of 1.2
200,000 million on the 5th of May 2020.
0
30-Mar
14-Sep
28-Sep
01-Feb
15-Feb
14-Apr
27-Apr
11-May
25-May
04-Aug
17-Aug
31-Aug
01-Mar
15-Mar
29-Mar
12-Apr
09-Nov
23-Nov
04-Jan
18-Jan
08-Jun
22-Jun
06-Jul
20-Jul
07-Dec
21-Dec
12-Oct
27-Oct
Source: DEASP, Revenue, CSO.
Data: 13-04-2021
Figure 1.18 – Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP),
by sector, persons
Latest developments:
COVID-19 containment measures in the first
quarter of 2021 were more wide ranging than
Accommodation & Food restrictions in the second half of 2020.
Wholesale & Retail Trade &…
Construction
As a result, the impact of containment measures
Administrative
was evident across sectors, including in sectors
Other
Manufacturing
that had avoided severe second wave restrictions
Professional - such as construction and manufacturing.
Education
Arts, Entertainment &… This week, the sectors with the highest number
Health & Social Work of people receiving PUP are Accommodation and
Transport Food Service activities (102,400), Wholesale and
Not stated Retail Trade (70,000) and Construction (50,200);
Financial all sectors remain below historic sectoral peaks.
ICT
Public Administration
All sectors have fewer recipients on 12-April
Real Estate
Agriculture
compared to the preceding week; with the largest
Utilities reductions occurring in Accommodation and
Food (-3,750). Construction (-2,550), Wholesale
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 and Retail (-2,100).
sectoral peak current level (12/04/2021)
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Source: DEASP. Page | 7Figure 1.13 – Community mobility (7 day moving average)
Latest developments: mobility measures – effects of
new restrictions evident.
35
Daily mobility data give a real time steer on
changes in economic activity.
15
Retail, workplaces and public transport use have all
seen decreases in activity since restrictions were
-5
re-introduced. These indicators remain well below
their pre-pandemic baseline.
-25
Activity at retail and recreation and workplace
locations has increased slightly in recent weeks as
-45
Level 5 restrictions continue, but with the partial
opening of schools.
-65
A decline in activity at workplaces is evident from
the data coinciding with the week of the Easter
-85 bank holiday.
15/02/2020
15/03/2020
15/04/2020
15/05/2020
15/06/2020
15/07/2020
15/08/2020
15/09/2020
15/10/2020
15/11/2020
15/12/2020
15/01/2021
15/02/2021
15/03/2021
This data is created with aggregated, anonymized
sets of data from Google Maps.
retail_and_recreation grocery_and_pharmacy
public_transport workplaces Source: Google mobility data.
residential
Data: 07-04-2021
Figure 1.14 – Mode of transport (1st January 2020=100, 7 day
moving average)
180 Latest developments: slight increase mobility in
recent weeks
160 Requests for directions across all three modes of
transport declined sharply in Spring 2020,
140 recovering during the Summer as restrictions
were lifted.
120
As the economy re-opened, there was a widening
gap between levels of driving and walking or
100
public transport use, with driving exceeding its
80
baseline level.
All modes of transport saw a large decline in
60 October and November as restrictions were re-
introduced, although they recovered rapidly
40 following the loosening of restrictions in early
December.
20
Following the reintroduction of Level 5
0 restrictions mobility fell sharply, but it has
increased slightly in recent weeks.
28/02/2020
28/03/2020
28/04/2020
28/05/2020
28/06/2020
28/07/2020
28/08/2020
28/09/2020
28/10/2020
28/11/2020
28/12/2020
28/01/2021
28/02/2021
31/03/2021
This data is created with aggregated, anonymized
sets of data which reflect requests for directions
on Apple Maps.
driving transit walking Source: Apple
Data: 09-04-2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 8Figure 1.15 – Aggregate traffic volumes on national
roads (7 day moving average)
Latest developments: Traffic gradually recovering from
January low
7,000,000
The recovery in traffic levels remained steady at roughly 10
6,000,000 per cent below the pre pandemic level over last Summer
following the reopening of the economy and society in late
June.
5,000,000
Another level shift was seen from mid-October as a 5km
radius restriction on travel was introduced, though the
4,000,000 unwinding of restrictions in early December saw a rapid
return to these early October levels.
3,000,000 This rose to Summer levels before restrictions were
reintroduced, leading to Spring 2020 levels of traffic when
initial restrictions were brought in.
2,000,000
It has since gradually ticked up so far through Spring 2021
before travel rules have been relaxed but is still around 40
1,000,000 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
The daily aggregate is a sum of traffic volumes across 246
0 traffic counter sites on national roads (i.e. motorway,
01/07/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
01/10/2020
01/11/2020
01/12/2020
01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
national primary, national secondary).
Source: Transport Infrastructure Ireland.
Data: 12-04-2021
Figure 1.16 – Restaurant bookings % change vs. same day in 2019 (7 day moving average)
Latest developments: bookings 100% below last year
80% following return of restrictions
Source: Google mobility data.
60%
The re-introduction of restrictions on indoor dining in mid-
40%
September followed by the move to Level 5 restrictions
brought them back to 100% below this point last year.
20% The unwinding of restrictions on restaurants in early
December saw them return to being above the booking
0%
figures for this time last year.
-20% The return of restrictions on the hospitality sector since
Christmas Eve has led to these bookings being 100% below
-40%
last year again, while there has been a steady increase
-60% globally.
-80%
-100%
-120% Note: These figures do not account for the fact that due to the pandemic many
restaurants have since had to introduce booking systems, while some are also
24/02/2020
24/03/2020
24/04/2020
24/05/2020
24/06/2020
24/07/2020
24/08/2020
24/09/2020
24/10/2020
24/11/2020
24/12/2020
24/01/2021
24/02/2021
24/03/2021
operating on reduced capacities. It may also reflect more people and
restaurants using OpenTable.
Global Ireland Source: OpenTable. Data: 12-04-2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 9Tithe an Rialtas. Sráid Mhuirfean Uacht, Baile Átha Cliath 2, D02 R583, Éire Government Buildings, Upper Merrion Street, Dublin 2, D02 R583, Ireland T:+353 1 676 7571 @IRLDeptFinance www.gov.ie/finance Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 10
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