EEA-ESEM PROGRAMME 27-31 AUGUST 2018 COLOGNE GERMANY - 2019 EEA|ESEM

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EEA-ESEM PROGRAMME 27-31 AUGUST 2018 COLOGNE GERMANY - 2019 EEA|ESEM
PROGRAMME
EEA-ESEM
27–31 AUGUST 2018
COLOGNE GERMANY
33RD ANNUAL CONGRESS OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
71TH EUROPEAN MEETING OF THE ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY

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EEA-ESEM PROGRAMME 27-31 AUGUST 2018 COLOGNE GERMANY - 2019 EEA|ESEM
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                                                                                        2018 · VOLUME 1
                                                                                        e-ISSN 2451-3458
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             EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
EEA-ESEM PROGRAMME 27-31 AUGUST 2018 COLOGNE GERMANY - 2019 EEA|ESEM
Email: fec@sufe.edu.cn                                 Online Submission: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/fec

                           Frontiers of Economics in China
Frontiers of Economics in China (FEC) is a double-blind peer-reviewed economics journal
edited at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and published by Higher
Education Press of China. With 630 institutional subscribers worldwide and indexed in
10+ databases including EBSCO, EconLit, ESCI, RePEc and SCOPUS, the journal was ranked
as one of “The Highest International Impact Academic Journals of China” in 2016.

The FEC welcomes submissions of theoretical and empirical papers from all fields of
economics, particularly those with an emphasis on the Chinese economy and other
emerging, developing or transition economies.

Editor:                    Guoqiang Tian               Texas A&M University; SUFE
Executive Editor:          Zhiqi Chen                  Carleton University
Co-Editors:                Chunrong Ai                 University of Florida
                           Kevin X. D. Huang           Vanderbilt University
                           Neng Wang                   Columbia University
                           Quan Wen                    University of Washington

                         Selected Papers Published in 2017 and 2018
Rethinking Globalization in the Trump Era: US-China Relations…………………. Joseph E. Stiglitz
Conquering China’s Unbalanced and Inadequate Development: Macroeconomic Outlook,
Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual SUFE
Macroeconomic Report (2017–2018)………………….. Kevin X. D. Huang, Lei Ning, Guoqiang Tian
Product Market Competition and Innovation: What Can We Learn from Economic
Theory?………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....Zhiqi Chen
The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in a Mercantilist Economy…………………………………………
                                                                       Gaowang Wang, Heng-fu Zou
Offshoring and Reshoring: The Roles of Incomplete Contracts and Relative Bargaining
Power…………………………………………………………………......................Ngo Van Long, Maxwell Tuuliy
Agglomeration and Firm Export………………………………………... Churen Sun, Zhihao Yu, Tao Zhang
Examining the Factors Affecting Personal Income: An Empirical Study Based on Survey Data in
Chinese Cities…………………………………………………………………………………….. Lihui Wang, Junyi Shen
Are Central and Western Chinese Provinces Catching up with the East? An Empirical Analysis
of Convergence Processes across China……………………………Marlies Schütz, Han Li, Nicole Palan
Audit Competition in Insurance Oligopolies.............................. Nicolas Boccard, Patrick Legros
Hidden Reserve Prices with Risk-Averse Bidders………………………………....Huagang Li, Guofu Tan

                   Free Full-text Download: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec
EEA-ESEM PROGRAMME 27-31 AUGUST 2018 COLOGNE GERMANY - 2019 EEA|ESEM
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CONTENTS                                                                                                                                                                   WELCOME TO COLOGNE!
                                                                                                                                                                           The University of Cologne is delighted to host the 33rd Annual Congress of the European Economic
                                                                                                                                                                           Association and the 71st European Meeting of the Econometric Society.
WELCOME TO COLOGNE!...................................................................................................................................... 9

                                                                                                                                                                           Founded in 1388, the University of Cologne is one of the oldest and largest within Europe and is recognized
EEA PRESIDENTIAL FOREWORD.......................................................................................................................... 10
                                                                                                                                                                           for its international reputation of academic achievement and high standards of education. In 2012, it was
                                                                                                                                                                           selected as one of currently eleven German Excellence Universities and has been awarded funding for
ES PRESIDENTIAL FOREWORD............................................................................................................................. 11
                                                                                                                                                                           its Institutional Strategy. It has several large and internationally competitive research fields, especially in
                                                                                                                                                                           biology, medical science, physics, economics, psychology and the humanities.
GENERAL INFORMATION..................................................................................................................................... 12

                                                                                                                                                                           The Faculty of Management Economics and Social Sciences in Cologne has moved towards a modern research-
SOCIAL PROGRAMME ......................................................................................................................................... 14
                                                                                                                                                                           oriented department over the last decade. It has developed a strong research focus on behavioral economics
                                                                                                                                                                           and has established itself as one of the leading research centers for economic design. Its development was
CONGRESS SPONSORS.......................................................................................................................................... 15
                                                                                                                                                                           accelerated by the previous round of the German Universities Excellence Initiative which gave rise to the
                                                                                                                                                                           establishment of the Center for Social and Economic Behavior (C-SEB) as one of the Centers of Excellence at
EXHIBITION........................................................................................................................................................... 16
                                                                                                                                                                           Cologne funded within the Institutional Strategy of the university. In addition the Faculty has a focus on the
                                                                                                                                                                           research area Markets and Governments, which comprises research in Macroeconomics, Public Economics
EEA ANS ES SPONSORS........................................................................................................................................ 19
                                                                                                                                                                           and Political Economy, and on Regulation and Industrial Organization.

EEA AND ES AWARD PRESENTATIONS AND MEMBERS’ MEETINGS.................................................................. 20
                                                                                                                                                                           In April 2017, the Universities of Bonn and Cologne founded the Reinhard Selten Institute to honor Reinhard
                                                                                                                                                                           Selten’s outstanding contributions to Economics. It was established as an initiative of his former students
WOMEN IN ECONOMICS MENTORING RETREAT................................................................................................ 21
                                                                                                                                                                           who now teach at the universities of Bonn and Cologne. The institute’s mission is to foster independent
                                                                                                                                                                           thinking, excellent research and innovative approaches across disciplines. At EEA-ESEM 2018, the Reinhard
PROGRAMME COMMITTEE.................................................................................................................................. 22
                                                                                                                                                                           Selten Institute sponsors the lunch session on “New Challenges, New Tools and New Objectives for Market
                                                                                                                                                                           Design and Public Policy” that will be chaired by Axel Ockenfels.
DETAILED SCIENTFIC PROGRAMME.................................................................................................................... 26
  Monday, August 27......................................................................................................................................... 26
                                                                                                                                                                           The city of Cologne is situated on both sides of the Rhine and is home to the Cologne Cathedral, a World
  Tuesday, August 28......................................................................................................................................... 45
                                                                                                                                                                           Heritage Site and Germany‘s number one attraction, which draws over six million visitors each year. In
  Wednesday, August 29................................................................................................................................... 66
                                                                                                                                                                           addition, Cologne‘s world-class museums like the Museum Ludwig, the Wallraf-Richartz-Museum or the
  Thursday, August 30...................................................................................................................................... 104
                                                                                                                                                                           Romano-Germanic Museum also attract visitors from all over the world. Cologne has a very active and
  Friday, August 31........................................................................................................................................... 125
                                                                                                                                                                           diverse nightlife, which offers several music and theatre venues as well as numerous restaurants and pubs.
                                                                                                                                                                           While traditional brewery taverns can be found close to the Rhine in the centre of the city, the quarters
QUICK LOOK: OVERVIEW OF SESSIONS AND ROOMS..................................................................................... 127
                                                                                                                                                                           close to the university - like the “Belgisches Viertel” or the streets around Rathenauplatz – also host many
                                                                                                                                                                           nice bars and restaurants. There are thus plenty of possibilities to try Kölsch, the city’s unique type of beer.
QUICK LOOK: PROGRAMME OVERVIEW.......................................................................................................... 139

                                                                                                                                                                           As the Local Organising Committee we are happy to welcome you in Cologne!

                                                                                                                                                                           Felix Bierbrauer (Chair), Raphael Flore (Coordinator), Michael Krause, Marc Bettzüge,
                                                                                                                                                                           Isabel Schnabel and Daniel Scheu

                                                                                   8                                                                                                                                                  9
                                                      EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                                                                         EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
EEA WELCOME                                                                                                     ES WELCOME
Welcome to the 33rd annual congress of the European Economic Association. Following a consolidated              It is a pleasure to welcome all of you to the 71st European Meeting of the Econometric Society. Cologne is
tradition of cooperation, our congress is held jointly with the European Meetings of the Econometric Society.   a wonderful place to hold the meeting and we are grateful to the University of Cologne for serving as our
It is quite impressive to see how this event has grown to become the biggest gathering of economists in         host. As usual we have an extremely dedicated local organizing team. On this occasion, it is chaired by Felix
Europe, attracting participants also from other regions. 2018 is a special year for the EEA, as we will be      Bierbrauer and includes Raphael Flore, Michael Krause, Marc Bettzüge, Isabel Schnabel and Daniel Scheu.
launching the first pan-European job market in December. The European job market aims at integrating            On behalf on the Econometric Society, I thank them all for their superb efforts. Thanks also to Razi Farukh
local initiatives and improving the match between recruiters and PhD candidates on a broader scale. Since       and his team of student assistants and Yves Gissot who has managed the facilities and technical equipment.
young researchers are one of the strengths of our annual congress, I hope to see many of them join us in        Gemma Prunner-Thomas has masterminded the meeting with her customary efficiency and good humor.
December in Naples.
                                                                                                                We are also grateful to the program chairs, Marco Ottaviani (Bocconi University) and Michèle Tertilt
It is a challenging time to be an economist: recent political developments in and outside Europe highlight      (University of Mannheim). They have put together a varied and interesting program for us to enjoy in
a growing distrust in institutions and in policymaking. As economists, we need to do a better job at            the coming days, ably assisted by Giovanni Montanari and the programme committee. We have a rich
communicating our ideas to non-expert audiences. But we also need to improve our ability to understand          program of invited events. In addition to the Fisher Schultz Lecture given by Matthew Gentzkow (Stanford
a world that is becoming increasingly complex and diverse from a social and from a technological point of       University) and the Laffont Lecture by Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania), we have a wide
view. This requires bridging the gap with other disciplines, learning new methods and opening our minds.        range of invited sessions. These are Macroeconomics of Inequality by Matthias Doepke (Northwestern
And this is what makes our times not only challenging but incredibly exciting.                                  University) and Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Business Cycles and Monetary Policy by Nir Jaimovich (University of
                                                                                                                Zurich) and Silvana Tenreyro (LSE); Family Economics by Katrine Loken (Norwegian School of Business) and
This year’s scientific program reflects some of the above developments, and I want to thank Nicola              Jerome Adda (Bocconi University); Dynamic Microeconomics and Policy by Bard Harstad (University of Oslo)
Gennaioli and Marta Reynal-Querol for doing a superb job at putting it together. I also want to underline       and Michelle Sovinsky (Mannheim University); Economics of Research and Experimentation by Maximilian
the importance of the many activities organized by the EEA standing committees, including the mentoring         Kasy (Harvard University) and Sylvain Chassang (New York University); Organisational Design by Guillaume
retreat for women in economics, the lunch session on data access for researchers, and the educational           Plantin (Paris School of Economics) and Tomasz Sadzik (University of California, Los Angeles).
session on the last day of the congress.
                                                                                                                We also have a program of events organized jointly with EEA to support women in the economics profession
Our meeting this year is in the beautiful city of Cologne, a city with a long history and cultural tradition.   in Europe. This work has been led on the Econometric Society side by Paola Manzini and the Society is
I am very grateful to the University of Cologne for hosting us on its campus and to the local organizing        grateful to her for her effort.
committee, chaired by Felix Bierbrauer, and coordinated by Raphael Flore, for working incredibly hard to
make sure that everything runs efficiently. Finally, I cannot but express my deepest gratitude to Gemma         This is also a good opportunity to thank my colleagues on the Regional standing committee who help to
Prunner-Thomas, EEA General Manager, and to Antonio Cabrales, Executive Vice-President, for their tireless      coordinate the activities of the Econometric Society in Europe. I would particularly like to thank Sven Rady
dedication to the association.                                                                                  who works with calm efficiency as the Secretary to the Committee and Olivier Scaillet who ably manages
                                                                                                                the finances in his role as Treasurer.
I hope you enjoy the congress and I look forward to seeing you in Cologne.
                                                                                                                The Econometric Society remains one of the few truly global associations for academic economists. In addition
With best regards,                                                                                              to its publishing activities, the Society is deeply committed to bringing economists together in meetings
                                                                                                                such as this one. So successful has been the society in its mission to promote statistics and mathematical
Eliana La Ferrara                                                                                               methods that this now permeates all aspects of economics. And as our discipline expands in its scope and
President of the European Economic Association                                                                  breadth, it is remarkable to see how the framework of economics can be adapted and developed as we
                                                                                                                will see in the many original papers on offer at our meeting. It is a privilege to be part of the Society and
                                                                                                                to serve as its President this year as well as being able to participate in a meeting with so many talented
                                                                                                                individuals. It is now more than 30 years since I first attended a European Econometric Society meeting as
                                                                                                                a PhD student and the meetings do not cease to impress me with the excitement that they generate. For
                                                                                                                those of you who are here for the first time, I hope that this will be the first of many meetings and that you
                                                                                                                remain engaged with the Econometric Society throughout your career. I wish all participants an enjoyable
                                                                                                                meeting with many stimulating discussions with your fellow economists.

                                                                                                                Tim Besley
                                                                                                                President 2018

                                                         10                                                                                                              11
                                   EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                                EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
GENERAL INFORMATION                                                                                                USE OF MOBILE PHONES
                                                                                                                   Please note that the use of mobile phones during contributed, invited and plenary sessions is forbidden and
CONGRESS VENUE                                                                                                     the mobile phones have to be muted.
EEA-ESEM Cologne 2018 takes place in four buildings on the University of Cologne campus. A map of the
campus can be found on the inner front cover of this programme.                                                    SESSION INSTRUCTIONS
                                                                                                                   CONFERENCE ROOM
COFFEE BREAKS AND LUNCHES                                                                                          Computer (MS Windows environment) and projector will be available in each room for presentations. Please
There will be food stations on the ground floors of the buildings Hörsaalgebäude, Philosophikum and                use Portable Document Format (.pdf) for presentations. Presenters are requested to bring their presentation
Hauptgebäude during all breaks.                                                                                    on a USB disk. Presenters are asked not to connect to their own laptops as this wastes too much time.

REGISTRATION AND INFORMATION DESK                                                                                  DURATION
On Monday, the registration and information desk is located on the ground floor of the building                    To ensure that the Conference is running smoothly, we would like to make sure that sessions start and end
Hauptgebäude. On all other days, it is located on the ground floor of the building Philosophikum.                  on time. Also, to ensure that each paper is given sufficient time for presentation and discussion, please
Monday, August 27            10:00 - 19:00                                                                         stick to the following time rules: make sure that the time available is divided equally over the papers to be
Tuesday, August 28           08:00 - 19:00                                                                         presented and that any remaining time is left for discussion. The chair and speakers should agree the precise
Wednesday, August 29         08:00 - 19:00                                                                         format and timing of this discussion: that is whether it covers the session as a whole or comes following
Thursday, August 30          08:00 - 17:00                                                                         each paper.
Please note that there is a wardrobe and limited storage facilities for luggage at the entrance of the building
Hauptgebäude.                                                                                                      SESSION CHAIRS
                                                                                                                   Chairs are invited to come to the room 10 minutes prior to the start of the session. They introduce the
CERTIFICATE OF ATTENDANCE AND RECEIPT OF PAYMENT                                                                   session and the speakers, make sure that the time rules are followed, and guide the general discussion
In order to reduce the amount of paper used at EEA-ESEM Cologne 2018, participants will receive a                  following the presentation. They should also coordinate with the speakers and agree on the form and
“Certificate of Attendance” and a receipt of payment in pdf format on request only. Requests for these             precise timing of discussion. In case the scheduled chair does not show up, the presenter of the session’s
certificates must be made to registration@eea-esem-congresses.org after the Congress has finished and              final paper is expected to take over the role of chair. If your session has fewer papers than expected due to
before September 15.                                                                                               last minute cancellations, you can be a bit more flexible with the time, but bear in mind that the audience
                                                                                                                   might be interested in attending other sessions too.
PROGRAMME UPDATES
The submission and programme software Conference Maker is updated automatically when changes to the                OTHER USEFUL INFORMATION
programme are made. You are encouraged to make use of this programme.                                              PUBLIC TRANSPORT
                                                                                                                   Within the city, as well as region, you reach everything easily via bus, tram, city train or train.
COMPUTER ROOM                                                                                                      The stop closest to the conference venue is called “Universität” and you can get there with line 9. From
There is a computer room available for participants of EEA-ESEM Cologne 2018, which is situated on the             there to get to Albertus Magnus Platz, which is the main square of the campus around which the EEA-ESEM
ground floor of the Philosophikum (next to Hörsaal H 80). Information about the login at the computers can         session rooms will be concentrated, you just have to walk 300 m north parallel to the “Universitätsstraße”.
be provided by the registration and information desk. There is not a printer available there.                      The same tickets can be used for all trams and buses in the city of Cologne. These tickets can be bought
                                                                                                                   with coins on the trams or in the buses or at booths that can be found at some stations.
WIFI ACCESS
                                                                                                                   The most important single tickets are:
You are able to access the Internet using your own device via the eduroam network. If you have an account
                                                                                                                         • short-distance - area K (one way up to four stops):                              1.90 €
from your home university please use that network and your account to login. Otherwise, you can login in
                                                                                                                         • standard - area 1b (one way within Cologne):                                     2.90 €
the network UniKoeln-802.1X with the guest account eeapc001 and the password DZ8Vda423.
                                                                                                                         • day ticket - area 1b (until 3 am next day within Cologne):                       8.60 €
TWITTER & FACEBOOK                                                                                                       • week ticket - area 1b (from Monday until Sunday night within Cologne):          25.40 €
The Local Organisers will cover the congress at @EEAESEMCologne on Twitter and at “EEA-ESEM Cologne”
on Facebook. Please follow #EEAESEM18 and tweet your news about EEA-ESEM 2018.                                     For the more adventurous participant, Cologne like other numerous European cities, offers a bike-sharing
                                                                                                                   service – More information is found at www.kvb-rad.de/en/koeln/
CONGRESS ASSISTANTS
There are assistants ready to help participants. Congress assistants are easily identifiable by their University   TAXIS
of Cologne t-shirt.                                                                                                You can call +49 221-2882 or +49 221-131311 for a scheduled pick-up.
                                                                                                                   The official taxi rate of Cologne consists of: the initial fee of €3.50 and a rate of €1.70 - €1.90 per km. The
NAME BADGES                                                                                                        fare from the main station in Cologne to the university is about €12 and from the airport Cologne/Bonn €38.
All participants of EEA-ESEM Cologne 2018 are requested to wear their name badges (given at registration)
at all times! Only participants wearing name badges will be allowed access to the scientific sessions, coffee      IMPORTANT NUMBER
and lunch breaks and the social events.                                                                            Need help? 112 is the European emergency phone number available everywhere in the EU, free of charge.

                                                          12                                                                                                                 13
                                    EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                                   EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
SOCIAL PROGRAMME                                                                                                CONGRESS SPONSORS
MONDAY, AUGUST 27               WELCOME RECEPTION                                                               The European Economic Association, Econometric Society, and the local
A welcome reception will be held at the Gürzenich, an old assembly hall from the 15th century, which is         organisers from the University of Cologne, kindly thank the following sponsors
situated in the heart of Cologne, from 20:00 – 22:30. The event is open to all participants of EEA-ESEM         for their generous support of EEA-ESEM Cologne:
Cologne 2018. The nearest tram station is Heumarkt (Lines 1,5,7 and 9).
                                                                                                                DEUTSCHER SPARKASSEN- UND GIROVERBAND
                                                                                                                See you daily from 4.00 pm - 4.30 pm at the Sparkassen-Lounge in the
                                                                                                                Hörsaalgebäude. Kölsch (local beer) for free.

                                                                                                                IZA INSTITUTE
                                                                                                                Science at the service of society: Bridging research and practice
                                                                                                                www.iza.org
                                                                                                                IZA is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in
                                                                                                                labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market
                                                                                                                issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world’s largest
                                                                                                                network of economists, whose research provides answers to the global labor
                                                                                                                market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between
                                                                                                                academic research policymakers and society.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 30             END OF CONGRESS PARTY
The Congress Dinner will take place at the Flora, located within the Botanical Garden of Cologne, from
20:00 – 23:30. Please note that the dinner can only be attended by participants who paid the standard
registration fee. If you have paid, your name badge will indicate this and act as your ticket.
No transportation will be provided. The nearest tram station is Zoo/Flora (line 18). To view the timetable of
public transport going from Zoo/Flora (line 18) to the centre, please visit the page SOCIAL EVENTS at www.
eea-esem-congresses.org

                                                         14                                                                                                             15
                                   EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                               EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
EXHIBITION                                                                             FRONTIER ECONOMICS
                                                                                       Frontier Economics is one of the largest economic consultancies in Europe with
The exhibitors will be located on the ground floor of the building Philosophikum.      offices in Berlin, Brussels, Cologne, Dublin, London, Madrid and Paris. We use
There are coffee and lunch stations close by.                                          cutting edge economics to solve complex business and policy problems, and
                                                                                       work with leading private and public-sector organisations, as well as ministries
The opening hours of exhibition are:                                                   and industry regulators.
Monday, August 27              14:00 - 19:00
Tuesday, August 28             08:30 - 19:00                                           HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS
Wednesday, August 29           08:30 - 19:00                                           Founded in 1913, Harvard University Press is the publisher of classic works,
Thursday, August 30            08:30 - 19:00                                           and continues to be a leading publisher of convergent works in the sciences,
Friday, August 31              08:30 - 12:30                                           humanities, and social sciences. HUP’s publication program, which includes
                                                                                       important new digital projects and platform,s is driven by the belief that books
                                                                                       from academic publishers are more essential than ever before for understanding
EXHIBITORS                                                                             critical issues facing the world today.

BRISTOL UNIVERSITY PRESS                                                               LATEST THINKING
Bristol University Press publishes world-class scholarship in the social sciences      LATEST THINKING is an Open Access Video Journal providing summaries of
that advances theory, knowledge and learning. Home to Policy Press, this bold          research findings covering all academic fields from anthropology to physics,
university press publishes for global impact and social change. As a not-for-profit    from biology to philosophy. Our original videos are abstracts of peer-reviewed
publisher, we put integrity before profit and research before sensationalism to        academic publications brought to you by the authors in person and embedded
provide an internationally respected platform for the dissemination of work            in a unique video player, which navigates you through the scholar’s flow of
that matters.                                                                          ideas.

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS                                                             MIT PRESS
Cambridge University Press dates from 1534 and is part of the University of            The MIT Press is a leading publisher of books and journals, and committed to
Cambridge. Our mission is to unlock people’s potential with the best learning          advancing knowledge by publishing significant works by pioneering authors,
and research solutions by combining state-of-the-art content with the highest          and exploring new fields and new modes of inquiry. We honor complexity with
standards of scholarship writing and production. Visit our stand for 20% off all       provocative and transformative work that crosses academic and geographic
titles on display.                                                                     boundaries to serve the broadest possible global audience

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH (ZEW)                                            OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim is one of                  Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers
Germany’s leading economic research institutes and has a reputation for                the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education
excellence throughout Europe. The institute’s key objectives are to conduct            by publishing worldwide.
cutting-edge research, to provide independent, evidence-based economic policy,
advice to promote up-and-coming researchers, and to inform the professional            PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
and lay public. ZEW is a member of the Leibniz Association.                            Palgrave Macmillan publishes award-winning research across the humanities,
                                                                                       social sciences and business for academics and professionals. Palgrave Macmillan
DSI                                                                                    offers authors and readers the very best in academic content and supports the
DSI Data Service & Information is focused on realising processing and running          scholarly community with innovative new formats and tools.
statistical time series platform solutions that work smarter feel better and are
easier to use:                                                                         PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
• DSI’s statistics platform AllThatStats provides access to latest time series         Princeton University Press is a major academic press, publishing around 250 new
   databases from national & international statistical bureaus & institutions.         books each year. We commission and publish books across the social sciences,
• Customised time series platforms to make working with statistical time series        sciences, and humanities, from literature to physics, from classics to cognitive
  databases less painful.                                                              science. Our fundamental mission is to disseminate scholarship (through print
                                                                                       and digital media) both within academia and to society at large.

                                                          16                                                                                    17
                                    EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                      EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
RWI – LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH                                          EEA AND ES SPONSORS
RWI – Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research is a leading centre for economic
research and evidence-based policy advice in Germany. The Institute´s research         EEA INSTITUTIONAL MEMBERS SPONSORSHIP OF INVITED SESSIONS
is structured along four “competence areas” and four research groups that look         The European Economic Association is grateful to its institutional members for their support of the following
into economic interrelations at all levels – ranging from the individual to global     EEA invited sessions:
economy. The claim “research with impact” illustrates its high scientific demand.
                                                                                       Banca d’Italia		                     The Economics of Management
ROUTLEDGE
Routledge partners with world-class authors, from leading scientists and
researchers, to scholars and professionals operating at the top of their fields.
Together, we publish in all areas of the Humanities, Social Sciences, Behavioural      Banco de España		                    Production Networks
Sciences, Science, Technology and Medicine sectors. We are one of the world’s
leading publishers of scholarly journals, books, eBooks, text books and reference
works.
                                                                                       Bank of England		                    Inequality and Tax Policy
SPRINGER
Springer is a leading global publisher in science, technology, medicine, humanities
and social sciences, providing researchers in academia, scientific institutions and
corporate R&D departments with quality content via innovative information              Deutsche Bundesbank		                Behavioural Macroeconomics
products and services. Springer is part of Springer Nature, one of the world’s
leading global research, educational and professional publishers.

WILEY                                                                                  National Bank of Romania		           Economics of Online Media
Wiley is a global provider of knowledge and knowledge-enabled services in
research, professional practice and education. Developing digital education,
learning, assessment and certification, partnering with societies and
communicating research discoveries.                                                    Oesterreichische Nationalbank		      Culture and Economics

EEA INSTITUTIONAL MEMBERS’ EXHIBITION
At EEA-ESEM Cologne 2018, some of the institutional members of the EEA will
be available to speak to participants about their research activites. The following    Sveriges Riksbank		                  Housing Markets and the Macroeconomy
institutional members can be found at the exhibition area in the building
Philosophikum at the following times:

Deutsche Bundesbank              Tuesday, August 28					                               The EEA would also like to thank the the European Central Bank for organizing
Bank of England                  Tuesday, August 28 and Wednesday, August 29           the lunch session Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Interactions, which
European Investment Bank         Wednesday, August 29 and Thursday, August 30          takes place on Tuesday, August 28 from 13:00 – 14:00.

                                                                                       Moreover the EEA also thanks the European Investment Bank for putting
                                                                                       together a special contributed session Investment, Investment Finance and
                                                                                       Regulation.

                                                                                       ES SPONSORS
                                                                                       The Econometric Society wishes to thank the Toulouse School of Economics
                                                                                       for its continued support of the Laffont Lecture. The Laffont lecture in ESEM
                                                                                       2018, Starting Ventures, will be given by Jeremy Greenwood (University of
                                                                                       Pennsylvania). It will take place on Tuesday, August 28 at 18:00, and will be
                                                                                       chaired by Pierre Dubois Magnac (TSE).

                                                          18                                                                                    19
                                    EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                      EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
EEA AND ES AWARDS AND MEMBERS’ MEETINGS                                                                       WOMEN IN ECONOMICS MENTORING RETREAT
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION                                                                                 Following on from the very successful past 5 WinE mentoring retreats, the EEA Women in Economics (WinE)
                                                                                                              Committee holds its 6th Retreat on the afternoon of Sunday, August 26 and the morning of Monday, August 27.
BIRGIT GRODAL AWARD
The Birgit Grodal Award, named after Birgit Grodal, who was the first female elected President of the EEA     The Retreat is open to early career female economists with positions (post-doctoral fellows, lecturers,
but sadly passed away before she was due to take up her presidency, has been bestowed every even year         researchers, and assistant professors) at academic and research institutions who obtained their PhDs within
since 2012. The Award is sponsored by the Danmarks Nationalbank and the winner of the Birgit Grodal           5 years of Retreat.
Award receives €10,000.                                                                                       The attendees participate in a series of innovative discussions organized as panels and as smaller groups
The 2018 prize has been awarded to Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (Paris School of Economics). Ekaterina will be       run by senior mentors. The discussions cover topics such as publishing, writing successful grant applications,
presented with the Award before the Presidential Address on Wednesday, August 29.                             networking and career planning, with attention paid to the unique challenges that women may face at
                                                                                                              different stages of their careers. A number of attendees also take part in small group sessions, which focus
HICKS-TINBERGEN AWARD                                                                                         on participants’ research papers and provide an opportunity for detailed comment and feed-back from
In 1991 the EEA created a medal to be awarded once every two years (even years) to the author(s) of an        senior mentors in their field.
outstanding article published in the Association’s Journal during the two preceding years. Until the end of   There are also many opportunities for the attendees to socialise with each other and their mentors during
2002 this journal was the European Economic Review (EER). From January 2003, the article is chosen from       this event.
the Journal of the European Economics Association (JEEA). It has been named the Hicks-Tinbergen medal
to make it clear that the EEA stands for both theoretical and empirical work in economics in Europe. It was   The scientific co-chairs of this year’s Retreat are Emmanuelle Auriol, Chair of the EEA’s Women in Economics
awarded for the first time in 1992 at the Dublin Congress. The 2018 Hicks-Tinbergen medal will be presented   Committee, and Paola Manzini, ES representative. The EEA also thanks the other mentors - Graziella
to Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales for their paper Long-term Persistence (published in JEEA    Bertocchi, Monica Billio, Valentina Corradi, Raffaella Giacomini, Brit Grosskoph, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Michèle
Volume 14 Issue 6) before the Schumpeter lecture on Tuesday, August 28.                                       Tertilt and Antonella Trigari - for their participation.

YOUNG ECONOMIST AWARD                                                                                         ORGANISERS AND SPONSORS
The EEA Young Economist Award, which will be given to the authors of the three best papers presented          The WinE Retreat is supported by funding from EEA and ES and an annual donation received by The Review
by young economists at the annual congress of the European Economic Association, will be conferred for        of Economic Studies. The Retreat is organized by the EEA central office in collaboration with the WinE
the third time. Eligible candidates (and all co-authors) should be no more than three years past a PhD        Committee, chaired by Emmanuelle Auriol, and a scientific co-chair nominated by the Econometric Society.
defense and current members of the European Economic Association. The Award is sponsored by UniCredit         From 2017 onwards, the WinE Retreat also benefits from a kind donation from the European Central Bank
Foundation and each winner is awarded €2,000. The winners will be presented with their awards before the      (ECB). The ECB is committed to enhancing gender diversity in the economics profession. It is also currently
EEA Marshall lecture on Thursday, August 30.                                                                  engaged in increasing the share of women in its own leadership ranks. Having achieved a share of 28%
                                                                                                              of women in management-level positions and 19% of women in senior management-level positions in
                                                                                                              2018, the ECB is now striving to further increase these numbers, as well as achieving additional targets
ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY                                                                                           for Principal Experts (42%) and Senior/Experts (50%), in order to increase the internal pipeline of talented
                                                                                                              female candidates for managerial positions. The topic of gender diversity has been high on the ECB’s agenda
APPLIED ECONOMICS PAPERS BY YOUNG RESEARCHERS                                                                 as the organisation aims to identify, attract and develop female talent. The ECB has implemented a wide
Two prizes will be awarded for the best papers in applied economics (broadly taken to include applied         variety of gender diversity measures, including recruitment and promotion policies, an open day for female
theory, empirical economics, experimental economics, and computational economics including both micro         talent focusing on university students and the establishment of several Diversity Networks. Upcoming
and macro approaches) presented by young researchers (within ten years of their PhD i.e. for the Cologne      priorities include gender equality certification and benchmarking, as well as inclusive leadership training
meetings with PhD awarded not earlier than January 1 2008). The ESEM Awards will be announced before          for managers.
the ES Presidential Address on Monday, August 27.
                                                                                                              7TH WINE RETREAT, EEA-ESEM MANCHESTER 2019
INSTITUTIONAL MEETINGS                                                                                        The 7th WinE Retreat will take place during EEA-ESEM Manchester 2019. Full information on this can be
ES Members’ Members, Monday, August 27, 19:15		                 Horsaalgebäude: Hörsaal B                    found on the WinE section of EEA website from November onwards.
EEA Members’ Members, Wednesday, August 29, 19:15               Horsaalgebäude: Hörsaal B

                                                        20                                                                                                             21
                                  EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                               EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
PROGRAMME COMMITTEE                                                                     Fabian Kindermann                                  Alexandra Spitz-Oener
                                                                                        Keith Kuester                                      Stefan Staubli
EEA PROGRAMME COMMITTEE 2018                                                            Moritz Kuhn                                        Nora Szech
Chairs | Nicola Gennaioli | Marta Reynal-Querol                                         Thomas Le Barbachon                                Olivier Terceux
                                                                                        Attila Lindner                                     Michela Tincani
AREA COORDINATORS:                                                                      Alexander Ludwig                                   Ragnar Torvik
Applied Microeconomics | Uta Schoenberg and Andrea Weber                                Joan Lull                                          Antonella Trigari
Applied Macroeconomics | Paolo Surico                                                   Michael Mandler                                    Carolina Villegas Sánchez
Behavioural and Experimental Economics | Steffen Huck                                   Sandra McNally                                     Hans Martin von Gaudeker
Development | Jean-Marie Baland                                                         Isabelle Mejean                                    Felix Weinhardt
Econometrics | Paolo Surico                                                             Alex Michaelides                                   Lukas Wenner
Economic Geography | Daniel Sturm                                                       Luigi Minale                                       Evgeny Yakovlev
Economic History | Ronny Razin                                                          Arieda Muco                                        Kamil Yılmaz
Economic Theory | Stephan Lauermann                                                     Haroon Mumtaz                                      Tanju Yorulmazer
Environmental | Dorothea Kubler                                                         David Nagy                                         Jan Zapal
Finance | Peter Kondor and Jose Luis Peydro                                             Joana Naritomi                                     Adam Zawadowski
Industrial Organisation | Philipp Schmidt-Dengler                                       Francesco Nava                                     Galina Zudenkova
International Economics | Kalina Manova                                                 Oskar Nordström-Skans                              Christine Zulehner
Labour | Steve Machin and Josef Zweimuller                                              Steven Ongena
Law and Economics | Ronny Razin                                                         Evi Pappa
Macroeconomics | Klaus Adam Nezih Guner and Mathias Thoenig                             William Pariente
Political Economics | Ronny Razin                                                       Maria Petrov
Public Economics | Camille Landais                                                      Johannes Pfeifer
                                                                                        Ludovic Phalippou
PROGRAMME COMMITTEE MEMBERS:                                                            Pia Pinger
Silvia Miranda Agrippino                                     Alon Eizenberg             Paolo Pinotti
Massimo Anelli                                               Miguel Ferreira            Kirill Pogorelskiy
Emmanelle Auriol                                             Sebastian Findeisen        Celine Poilly
Saleem Bahaj                                                 Urs Fischbacher            Franck Portier
Christian Bayer                                              Reto Foellmi               Sébastien Pouget
Michele Belot                                                Thierry Foucault           Susanne Prantl
Kenza Benhima                                                Lola Gadea                 Marek Pycia
Gianluca Benigno                                             Lucie Gadenne              Mariola Pytliková
Jo Blanden                                                   Daniel Garcia              Raghavendra Rau
Michael Boehm                                                Stefania Garretto          Anna Raute
Fernando Broner                                              Christina Gathmann         Rafael Repullo
Max Bruche                                                   Francois Gerard            Mariacristina Rossi
Aline Butekoefer                                             Chryssi Giannitsarou       Marco Runkel
Pierre Cahuc                                                 Susanne Goldluecke         Dominik Sachs
Vasco M. Carvalho                                            Antonio Guarino            Kjell Salvanes
Matteo Cervellati                                            Refet Gürkaynak            Andreas Schabert
Julie Chytilova                                              Yoram Halevy               Robert Schmidt
Alexandra Cirone                                             Martin Halla               Patrick Schmitz
Paola Conconi                                                Helios Herrera             Isabel Schnabel
Davide Debortoli                                             Felix Hoeffler             Nicolas Schutz
Jaime de Melo                                                Isabel Horta Correia       Enrique Sentana
Wouter den Haan                                              Romain Houssa              Enrico Sette
Swati Dhingra                                                Nagore Iriberri            Sandro Shelegia
Julian DiGiovanni                                            Oleg Itskhoki              Sergey Slobodyan

                                                        22                                                                            23
                                  EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                              EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
ESEM PROGRAMME COMMITTEE 2018                                                         Lucie Gadenne
Chairs | Marco Ottaviani | Michèle Tertilt                                            Ludovic Renou
                                                                                      Marianne Andries
AREA COORDINATORS:                                                                    Martin Weidner
Development Economics | Alessandro Tarozzi                                            Martina Björkman
Econometrics: Microeconometrics | Aureo de Paula                                      Mathias Trabandt
Econometrics: Theory | Christoph Rothe                                                Matt Levy
Econometrics: Time Series | Raffaella Giacomini                                       Matthias Parey
Empirical Studies | Fabian Waldinger                                                  Melanie Schienle
Experimental and Behavioral Economics | Erik Eyster                                   Mikkel Plagborg-Moller
Finance: Asset Pricing | Anna Pavlova                                                 Miklos Koren
Finance: Corporate Finance | Luigi Guiso                                              Monica Martinez-Bravo
Industrial Organisation | Michelle Sovinsky                                           Natalia Fabra
International Economics | Nicolas Coeurdacier                                         Nicolas Berman
Labour Economics | Katrine Loken                                                      Nizar Allouch
Macroeconomics: Business Cycles | Albert Marcet                                       Paolo Pinotti
Macroeconomics: Growth | Francesco Caselli                                            Peter Nilsson
Macroeconomics: Labour Consumption and Fiscal Policy | Nir Jaimovich                  Pierre Dubois
Political Economy & Public Economics | Giacomo Ponzetto                               Raül Santaeulalia
Theory: Decisions Games and Rationality | Pierpaolo Battigalli                        Rigas Oikonomou
Theory: General Equilibrium Bargaining & Networks | Gabrielle Demange                 Salvatore Nunnari
Theory: Information Contracts & Mechanism Design | Roland Strausz                     Schjerning Bertel
                                                                                      Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch
                                                                                      Sekhposyan Tatevik
                                                                                      Silvia Miranda Agrippino
PROGRAMME COMMITTEE MEMBERS:                                                          Stephane Guibaud
Akos Valentinyi                                               Filip Matejka           Susanna Esteban
Alexander Bick                                                Francesco Bianchi       Thomas Troeger
Alon Eizenberg                                                Francis Bloch           Toru Kitagawa
Andrea Carriero                                               Frank Kleibergen        Wei Cui
Andrea Lanteri                                                Frank Verboven          William Parienté
Anton Tsoy                                                    Frederic Malherbe       Xavier d’Haultfoeuille
Antonio Ciccone                                               Georg Weizsäcker        Zsofia Barany
Antonio Penta                                                 Giacomo Calzolari
Arash Nekoei                                                  Gianmarco Léon
Bartosz Mackowiak                                             Haroon Mumtaz
Bas Van der Klaauw                                            Helena Nielsen
Bettina Klaus                                                 Inés Macho Stadler
Cosmin Ilut                                                   Ioanid Rosu
Daniel Garrett                                                Irma Clots-Figueras
Daniel Krahmer                                                Itay Saporta
David Yanagizawa-Drott                                        Jaap Abbring
Davide Cantoni                                                Jean-Marc Tallon
Dennis Kristensen                                             Joachim Winter
Edwin Leuven                                                  John Fernald
Emiliano Pagnotta                                             John Hassler
Evi Pappa                                                     Julien Sauvagnat
Fabian Herweg                                                 Laura Coroneo
Facundo Piguillem                                             Laurent Bouton

                                                         24                                                                                    25
                                   EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                      EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
DETAILED LIST OF SCIENTIFIC SESSIONS                                                        12:30 - 13:45 | JOINT EEA-IEA PRE-CONGRESS SESSION
                                                                                                       HÖRSAALGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL C

                                                                      Is Europe an Optimal Political Union? (joint EEA and IEA session)
                                                                      Speaker: Guido Tabellini (Bocconi University Milan)
                                                                      Chair: Marta Reynal-Querol (Universitat Pompeu Fabra ICREA IPEG and Barcelona GSE)

                                                                                                  14:15 TO 16:00 | CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 1

                                                                                                                       EEA SESSIONS

                                                                      CREDIT
                                                                      PHILOSOPHIKUM: S73
                                                                      Chair: Alfredo Martin-Oliver, University Balearic Islands
                                                                      Gender and credit risk: a view from the loan officers’ desk
                                                                            Presented by: Jose G. Montalvo, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
                                                                      The Excess Burden of Collateral and The Slowdown of Job Creation in Early Stages of Firm’s Life Cycle
                                                                            Presented by: Farshad Ranjabr, Ravasan Paris School of Economics
                                                                      Credit Supply and Demand in Unconventional Times
                                                                            Presented by: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank
                                                                      Credit Risk in Markets with Spatial Competition and Moral Hazard
                                                                            Presented by: Alfredo Martin-Oliver, University Balearic Islands

                                                                      DEVELOPMENT: FIRMS
                                                                      PHILOSOPHIKUM: S54
                                                                      Chair: Shuo YAN, South University of Science&Technology
                                                                      OPTIMAL PENALTIES ON INFORMAL FIRMS
                                                                            Presented by: Anders Fredriksson, University of São Paulo
                                                                      Material efficiency and welfare losses from input misallocation in Indian iron and steel production
                                                                            Presented by: Gregor Singer, London School of Economics
                                                                      Local Effects of Artisanal Mining: Empirical Evidence from Ghana
                                                                            Presented by: Martin Guenther, Royal Holloway College University of London
                                                                      Corporate Political Connections and the Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from China
                                                                            Presented by: Shuo YAN, South University of Science&Technology

                                                                      ECONOMETRICS I
                                                                      PHILOSOPHIKUM: S83
                                                                      Chair: Barbara Sadaba, Bank of Canada
                                                                      GLS Estimation and Confidence Sets for the Date of a Single Break in Models with Trends
                                                                            Presented by: Yicong Lin, Maastricht University

          MONDAY,
                                                                      Simulation error in maximum likelihood estimation of discrete choice models
                                                                            Presented by: Mikołaj Czajkowski, University of Warsaw
                                                                      Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications To Time-Varying Parameter Models

       27 AUGUST 2018
                                                                            Presented by: Mu-Chun Wang, University of Hamburg
                                                                      Cyclicality of schooling: new evidence from unobserved components models
                                                                            Presented by: Barbara Sadaba, Bank of Canada

                                         26                                                                                    27
                   EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                      EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
ECONOMETRICS II                                                                                             EXPERIMENTAL LABOUR ECONOMICS AND CONTRACTS
PHILOSOPHIKUM: S55                                                                                          PHILOSOPHIKUM: S82
Chair: G. Charles-Cadogan, University of Leicester                                                          Chair: Felix Peterhammer, University of Regensburg
Combining Factor Models and External Instruments to Identify Uncertainty Shocks                             Leveraging wage subsidies to facilitate fair wages and increase social welfare
      Presented by: Martin Bruns, DIW Berlin                                                                      Presented by: Ro’i Zultan, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
Estimating non-stationary common factors: Implications for risk sharing                                     Betrayal Aversion and the Effectiveness of Incentive Contracts
      Presented by: Pilar Poncela, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (SPAIN)/ Joint Research Center (ITALY)          Presented by: Stephan Müller, Göttingen University
Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study                   Attention-Driven Demand for Bonus Contracts
      Presented by: Pamela Giustinelli, Bocconi University                                                        Presented by: Florian Peiseler, Duesseldorf Institute for Competition Economics University of
Estimation and Inference for Loss Aversion in Cross Sectional Regressions of Happiness and Consumption on   Duesseldorf
Economic Growth                                                                                             Seemingly irrelevant focal points affect wage setting and wage and job satisfaction
      Presented by: G. Charles-Cadogan, University of Leicester                                                   Presented by: Felix Peterhammer, University of Regensburg

EMPIRICAL ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY                                                                                GENDER BIASES IN POLITICS
HAUPTGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL VIIA                                                                                  HAUPTGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL XIB
Chair: Marcel Henkel, University Duisburg-Essen                                                             Chair: Gozde Corekcioglu, European University
Domestic transport costs, Canada, and the Panama Canal                                                      Gender Biases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in French Local Elections
       Presented by: Camilo Umana Dajud, CEPII                                                                     Presented by: Paul Vertier, Sciences Po
The Economic Geography of Innovation                                                                        Is Incumbency a Barrier to Women’s Entry in Politics?
       Presented by: Nicole Loumeau, ETH Zürich                                                                    Presented by: Quentin Lippmann, Paris School of Economics
The Returns to Big City Experience: Evidence From Danish Refugees                                           Historic sex-ratio imbalances predict female participation in the political market
       Presented by: Mads Hejlesen, Aarhus University                                                              Presented by: Iris Kesternich, University of Leuven
Fiscal equalization in the spatial economy                                                                  Headscarves and Female Employment
       Presented by: Marcel Henkel, University Duisburg-Essen                                                      Presented by: Gozde Corekcioglu, European University Institute

EVALUATING POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS                                                                           GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
HAUPTGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL XIA                                                                                   PHILOSOPHIKUM: S65
Chair: Enrique Burbano Valencia, Universidad de San Buenaventura Cali                                       Chair: Hugues Langlois, HEC Paris
Rankings matter even when they shouldn’t: bandwagon effects in two-round elections                          Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market
      Presented by: Vincent Pons, Harvard Business School                                                          Presented by: Martijn Boermans, De Nederlandsche Bank
Uncovering Vote Trading through Networks and Computation                                                    The Domestic Transmission of International Shocks: Evidence from US and Mexican Mutual Funds
      Presented by: Ulrich Matter, University of St. Gallen                                                        Presented by: Miguel Karlo De Jesus, Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros
Backing the Incumbent in Diffcult Times: The Electoral Impact of Wildfires                                  Global Market Inefficiencies
      Presented by: Carlos Sanz, Bank of Spain                                                                     Presented by: Sohnke Bartram, University of Warwick
Does Campaign Spending Affect Local Elections? Evidence from Colombia                                       Is Liquidity risk priced in partially segmented markets?
      Presented by: Enrique Burbano Valencia, Universidad de San Buenaventura Cali                                 Presented by: Hugues Langlois, HEC Paris

EXCHANGE RATE PUZZLES AND BEHAVIOURAL EXPLANATIONS                                                          HOUSING AND THE MACROECONOMY
SEMINARGEBÄUDE: S12                                                                                         HÖRSAALGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL D
Chair: Ralph Verhoeks, Erasmus University Rotterdam                                                         Chair: Tom Schmitz, Bocconi University
Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems                            Housing Prices and Consumer Spending: The Bank Balance Sheet Channel
      Presented by: Feng Zhu, Bank for International Settlements                                                  Presented by: Nuno Paixao, Bank of Canada
The Exchange Rate Disconnect: Incomplete Participation, Multiple Equilibria, and Shocks to Beliefs           On the effectiveness of loan-to-value regulation in a multiconstraint framework
      Presented by: Konstantin Platonov, UCLA                                                                     Presented by: Anna Grodecka, Sveriges Riksbank
Behavioral Bubbles and Exchange Rate Markets                                                                Macroeconomic Effects of Mortgage Interest Deduction
      Presented by: May Bunsupha, Harvard University                                                              Presented by: Cenkhan Sahin, European Central Bank
The Winner Takes it All: Measuring Attention and Predicting Exchange Rates with Google Trends               The Financial Transmission of Housing Bubbles: Evidence from Spain
      Presented by: Ralph Verhoeks, Erasmus University Rotterdam                                                  Presented by: Tom Schmitz, Bocconi University

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                                  EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                             EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
INFLATION                                                                                                 LABOUR SUPPLY
HÖRSAALGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL G                                                                                 SEMINARGEBÄUDE: S13
Chair: Jonas Dovern, Heidelberg University                                                                Chair: Arnaldur Stefansson, Uppsala University
Shifting Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy                                                       Labour Supply Responses to Financial Wealth Shocks: Evidence from in Italy
      Presented by: Markus Kirchner, Central Bank of Chile                                                      Presented by: Renata Bottazzi, University of Bologna
What does the heterogeneity of the inflation expectations of Italian firms tell us?                       Cyclicality of Hours Worked by Married Women and Spousal Insurance
      Presented by: Marco Bottone, Banca d’Italia                                                               Presented by: Kathrin Ellieroth, Indiana University Bloomington
Sources of Bias in Inflation Rates and Implications for Inflation Dynamics                                Peer Effects in Labor Supply
      Presented by: Sarah Lein, University of Basel                                                             Presented by: Patrick Schneider, Goethe-University Frankfurt
Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area                The Icelandic Tax Holiday - What can be learned from a salient one year income shock?
      Presented by: Jonas Dovern, Heidelberg University                                                         Presented by: Arnaldur Stefansson, Uppsala University

INFORMATION                                                                                               LONG RUN GROWTH
PHILOSOPHIKUM: S56                                                                                        SEMINARGEBÄUDE: S24
Chair: Steffen Ahrens, Technische Universität Berlin                                                      Chair: Bruno Pellegrino, UCLA
For They Know Not What They Do. Selection through Incentives when Information is Costly.                  European Immigrants and the United States’ Rise to the Technological Frontier in the 19th Century
       Presented by: Sandro Ambuehl, University of Toronto                                                       Presented by: Michael Peters, Yale University
Limited Cognitive Ability and Selective Information Processing                                            Development In Times of Polarization
       Presented by: Tsz Kin Leung, Toulouse School of Economics                                                 Presented by: Terry Yip, McMaster University
Recommendations in Credence Goods Markets with Horizontal Product Differentiation                         Is Inequality Increasing in r - g? Piketty’s Principle of Capitalist Economics and the Dynamics of Inequality in
       Presented by: Katharina Momsen, University of Innsbruck                                            Britain 1210-2013
It’s the Moral Hazard: moral hazard has an effect on the behavior of investors but not on their beliefs          Presented by: Jakob Madsen, Monash University
       Presented by: Steffen Ahrens, Technische Universität Berlin                                        Diagnosing the Italian Disease
                                                                                                                 Presented by: Bruno Pellegrino, UCLA
INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS AND ETHNIC DISCRIMINATION
HAUPTGEBÄUDE: HÖRSAAL VIIB                                                                                MACROPRUDENCIAL POLICY AND PORTFOLIO BALANCING
Chair: Susana Iranzo, Universitat Rovira Virgili                                                          SEMINARGEBÄUDE: S14
Ride with Me - Ethnic Discrimination, Social Markets and the Sharing Economy                              Chair: Katharina Bergant, Trinity College Dublin
      Presented by: Menusch Khadjavi, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel                                 The Euro Area’s Common Pool Problem Revisited: Has the Single Supervisory Mechanism Ameliorated
The Impact of Exposure to Xenophobic Violence on the Integration of Immigrants – Insights from Germany    Forbearance and Evergreening?
      Presented by: Max Steinhardt, Helmut Schmidt University                                                   Presented by: Frank Westermann, University of Osnabrueck
Not Just a Work Permit: The Effect of Gaining EU Citizenship on the Consumption Behavior of Illegal and   Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?
Legal Immigrants                                                                                                Presented by: Christian Friedrich, Bank of Canada
      Presented by: Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Bank of Italy                                                  Prudential Capital Controls and Risk Misallocation: Bank Lending Channel
Immigrants and Entrepreneurship: a Road for Talent or Just the Only Road?                                       Presented by: Lorena Keller, Northwestern University
      Presented by: Susana Iranzo, Universitat Rovira Virgili                                             International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program
                                                                                                                Presented by: Katharina Bergant, Trinity College Dublin
LABOUR ECONOMICS: DEMOGRAPHY AND GENDER I
SEMINARGEBÄUDE: S15                                                                                       MONETARY POLICY AND BANKS
Chair: Michael Burda, Humboldt University Berlin                                                          PHILOSOPHIKUM: S92
Gender Discrimination in Recruitment Committees                                                           Chair: Miguel Boucinha, European Central Bank
      Presented by: Pierre Deschamps, Sciences-Po                                                         Lender of Last Resort versus Buyer of Last Resort - Evidence from the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Wage growth among young college graduates in Europe: is there a gender gap?                                     Presented by: Diane Pierret, HEC Lausanne
      Presented by: Rocío Sánchez-Mangas, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid                                  Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Terms: Evidence from a Survey of US Loans
Taking Back Control? Trade-offs between Wages and Schedule Autonomy                                             Presented by: Gustavo A. Suarez, Federal Reserve
      Presented by: Isabel Stockton, University of Bristol                                                Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending and Security Holdings: The Yield-Induced Portfolio
Racial/Ethnic Differences in Non-Work at Work                                                             Rebalancing Channel
      Presented by: Michael Burda, Humboldt University Berlin                                                   Presented by: Karol Paludkiewicz, Deutsche Bundesbank
                                                                                                          Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment
                                                                                                                Presented by: Miguel Boucinha, European Central Bank

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                                   EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany                                                           EEA-ESEM | 27 - 31 August 2018 | Cologne Germany
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