Economic Report 2021 - Naalakkersuisut.gl

Page created by Keith Leonard
 
CONTINUE READING
The Ministry for Finance and Domestic Affairs

             Economic Report
                  2021

                                                1
Pursuant to Greenland Parliament Act no. 26 of 28 November 2016 on the budgets and accounts of the
municipalities and the Greenland Government Authorities, the Government of Greenland presents an
annual report at Parliament’s Spring Session on the economy of Greenland, including trends in public
expenditure and revenues.

Owing to the parliamentary elections, no Spring Session was convened in 2021. The Government of
Greenland has therefore opted to compile an Economic Report instead, for distribution to Members of
Parliament, and for general publication in line with customary policy for statutory political and economic
reporting.

The Economic Report primarily outlines and analyses developments within the economy and activities
in key areas of expenditure and revenue, and describes the key indicators guiding the Government of
Greenland’s economic policy, including the work of preparing the 2022 Finance Act Bill.

The report will thus be instrumental in increasing the availability of information on the finances of the
Greenland Government Authorities, and provide the basis for an informed debate on the economic
developments affecting the Greenland Government Authorities and Greenland as a whole.

                                                                                                        2
Foreword
The 2021 Economic Report has been authored in continuation of a new coalition agreement following
the recent parliamentary elections. The overriding message is “Solidarity, Stability and Growth”, which,
as well as building on a clear vision for the Government of Greenland’s work and key themes, also
paves the way for a goal of entering into broad, and thus lasting, agreements in parliament in critical
areas of society.

The 2021 Economic Report was also written at a very unusual time, marked as it is by the ongoing
COVID-19 situation. Thus far, Greenland is one of the countries that has made it through the pandemic,
which thankfully appears to be gradually having less impact. The report briefly reviews the status of the
COVID-19 situation and the now reduced need for relief measures.

The report focuses primarily on the economic situation and the long-term structural challenges in key
areas, including via specific indicators, and on the overall objectives of the new coalition.

The Government of Greenland and the new coalition will work on the basis of these key themes:
    •   All measures must be sustainable
    •   Development of trade and industry, including tourism, starting with innovation and job creation.
    •   A strong focus on primary and lower secondary education, the education sector, culture and
        research.
    •   Prioritising social and health-related prevention, focusing on early intervention and new ways
        of working in these areas.
    •   Preparing a clear, lasting and long-term housing policy.
    •   Implementing a cohesive reform in the area of the economy and taxation.
    •   Reforming the central administration.

In the coming period, the Government will prepare a more detailed basis for working on the respective
areas. This means that, by its very nature, the Economic Report will not include a detailed, specific run-
down of the forthcoming reform initiatives. These must be solidly prepared for and coordinated before
they can be defined more precisely and a schedule set out.

One denominator common to all this future work and these reforms is that they will help to create a
stronger society with a greater degree of equality, based on respect for the environment and starting
with the human resources available in Greenland. This means that the work will also focus on improving
the population’s living conditions, access to health, education, and a healthy economy.

The report includes updated goals and principles for the Government of Greenland’s economic policy
and associated questions on borrowing and considerations regarding the financing of major investments
in future years to ensure sustainable development.

The report will also outline the task of ensuring sustainable economic development and the preparation
of a new plan for sustainability and growth, as adopted by parliament in the Autumn Session of 2020.

I wish you all enjoyable reading.

Asii Chemnitz Narup, Minister for Finance and Domestic Affairs

                                                                                                        3
Contents
Foreword................................................................................................................................................ 3
       Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 5
   1.1        The COVID-19 situation and its implications for the economy of Greenland.............. 5
   1.2        Key figures for economic development in Greenland ..................................................... 6
   1.3        Trends in commercial fishing .............................................................................................. 7
   1.4        Partnership agreements with other countries ................................................................ 14
   1.5        Other commercial sectors ................................................................................................. 16
   1.6        Employment and unemployment ..................................................................................... 20
   1.7        Poverty measurement ....................................................................................................... 21
   1.8        Expenditure on children and young people .................................................................... 24
   1.9        The Treasury’s accounts for 2020 ................................................................................... 28
   1.10       Integration with municipal financial performance .......................................................... 29
   1.11       Taxes and duties ................................................................................................................ 30
   1.12       Tax arrears .......................................................................................................................... 31
   1.13       Debt trends .......................................................................................................................... 32
   1.14       Maintenance and reinvestment backlog for airports and ports ................................... 34
       Greater autonomy and economic self-sustainability ............................................................. 35
   2.1        Goals and principles for the Government of Greenland’s economic policy .............. 35
   2.2        Drafting of a block grant agreement with the municipal authorities for 2022 ............ 35
   2.3        Digitisation driving socioeconomic development ........................................................... 35
       The framework of the 2021 Finance Act and preparation of the 2022 Finance Act Bill .. 37
   3.1        Budget coordination related to the 2022 Finance Act Bill ............................................ 37
       Benchmarks and indicators ...................................................................................................... 39
   4.1        Economic governance ....................................................................................................... 39
   4.2        Use of benchmarks and performance indicators ........................................................... 39
       Preparation of the Sustainability and Growth Plan ............................................................... 50
   5.1        Improving the sustainability model .................................................................................. 51
   5.2        Preparation of a new Sustainability and Growth Plan .................................................. 52

                                                                                                                                                        4
Introduction
There is still broad political agreement on working towards a greater degree of independence. This will
be done by building competency at every level and creating a stronger, more self-sustaining economy.

The COVID-19 situation does not make this undertaking any less important. But it has revealed that our
society, by working together, is in a position to deal with a large, complex undertaking better than most
other countries – while also underlining Greenland’s position as an integral part of the global community
and the importance of working with others in order to maintain and continue to develop our society.

   1.1    The COVID-19 situation and its implications for the economy of Greenland
In 2020 the pandemic imposed a range of substantial expenses on the Treasury, totalling DKK
404.1 million in 2020. Most of these funds relate to maintaining air traffic.

2021 will still bring COVID-19-related expenses linked to the maintenance of flights and operation of
airports, as well as expenditure on testing, vaccination and maintenance of COVID-19 preparedness.
These are unpredictable in scope.

In the spring of 2020, when COVID-19 first became a problem in Greenland, the Government, with the
approval of the Finance and Tax Committee, introduced relief measures aimed at trade and industry
to relieve the consequences of the restrictions that the virus had imposed on normal working life. DKK
257 million was initially granted for this initiative.

Support to cover businesses’ fixed costs has been offered if their turnover has fallen by over 30% due
to COVID-19. Support has been offered to pay the salaries of employees whom affected businesses
have chosen to furlough – not those working from home – rather than terminating their employment.
Similarly, the Danish schemes allowed businesses to take out special state-guaranteed emergency
loans – an opportunity that Greenlandic businesses have taken up to a limited extent.

Later in the year, targeted schemes were introduced to stimulate demand in the tourism industry.
These involved subsidising hotel accommodation and spending on recreational trips run by tour
operators. A little later, a special travel discount was introduced for route operators.

With effect from 1 August 2020, a package aimed at inshore fishing was introduced for three species.
This scheme was designed as a price subsidy of a maximum of 10 per cent of the price in the preceding
year, if the price commanded in any given month was more than 15 per cent lower than that in the
corresponding month in 2019. In historical terms, prices commanded in 2019 were extremely high.

In 2021, the Government of Greenland, with the approval of the Finance and Tax Committee, has
introduced further relief measures aimed at the tourism industry. These end on 30 June 2021, and
primarily cover the same interventions as the relief measures in 2020, but are specifically aimed at
the tourism sector (and any businesses forced to close). DKK 45 million has been granted for this
initiative. Work is currently ongoing on a phase-out package. As of the time of writing, this has not
yet been passed.

Before the election was announced, a working group had been set up in accordance with political will
to investigate the potential need to offer measures aimed at inshore fishing in 2021, as well.

In general, special relief measures for trade and industry should only be offered in specific situations
that are temporary in nature. It is important not to impose unwarranted costs on society in the form of
neutralising competitive pressure among businesses.

If no further measures are implemented – and municipal flights cease on 18 April 2021 – the
estimated overall additional costs relating to COVID-19 are in the region of DKK 100 million.

                                                                                                           5
The Economic Council’s Chairmanship opinion on the current situation
In its May 2021 spring report, the Economic Council’s Chairmanship offers the following opinion on the
current situation:
“While a global economic recession occurred during 2020, economic indicators indicate that
Greenland experienced slight economic growth in 2020. There was also a small rise in employment.
Prosperity in the building and construction industry and private consumption has been enough
to ensure slight positive economic growth in 2020, despite the downturn in tourism and related
industries. The number of international visitors fell considerably, and international hotel stays,
restaurant visits and cruise ship visits are minimal or have ceased altogether. 3 per cent of people
in employment work in hotels and restaurants, as well as those employed in tourist excursions, air
traffic, and so on.

“Financial development has thus been significantly better than it appeared at the start of the
pandemic. This is mainly because lockdowns and restrictions to stop the risk of infection have been
required to a lesser extent than in other countries. The most significant measures were travel
restrictions – which have had major consequences for the tourism and travel industry. The structure of
industry also helped to soften the impact of the pandemic. Fishing is the dominant export industry, and
catches were only affected by changes in global economic prospects to a limited extent. In a fishing
context, uncertainty primarily relates to changes in the price of fish and shellfish. The large public
sector and the block grant also helped to reduce the economy’s dependence on international
economic prospects.

“The growth outlook for 2021 depends to some extent on the speed with which travel restrictions, etc.
are lifted in the surrounding world. Travel recommendations and vaccine roll-out will affect holiday
planning, and the tourism industry can be expected to have fewer international visitors this year than
before the pandemic – although more tourists than in 2020. On the other hand, building and
construction activity will be very high this year, and among other things, activities relating to airport
construction are expected to speed up still further, while the outlook for offshore fishing is favourable
in terms of catch volumes, and potentially also fish prices. Growth of approximately 2 per cent is
expected in 2021. The labour market will still be characterised by high employment and a lack of
a qualified workforce.

“In response to the COVID-19 crisis, financial relief measures have been introduced for businesses
and employees. The objective of these measures was to support companies and employees in
situations where the economic possibilities were impacted by the lockdowns and restrictions imposed
to limit the risk of spreading infection. Relief measures have become necessary in the extraordinary
situation that arose as a result of the lockdown restrictions. It is absolutely crucial that these relief
measures are justified in the indirect economic consequences of restrictions due to health grounds
that directly (e.g. via lockdown) or indirectly (e.g. via travel restrictions) affect business opportunities
unexpectedly. This is a very unusual form of economic policy, and such relief measures should
therefore be temporary.”

   1.2    Key figures for economic development in Greenland
The Economic Council’s Chairmanship published its latest report in May 2021. The Council predicts
an increase in GDP in the region of 0.7 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019, and an increase in
GDP in 2021 of around 2.0 per cent.

Actual figures for 2014–2019 and estimates for economic trends between 2020 and 2021 are
summarised in Table 1.

                                                                                                               6
Table 1. Supply balance, annual real growth as a percentage of GDP and gross
investment in chain-linked values

                                      Share of
                                       GDP in
                                        2019  Growth rate % (2010 prices, chain-linked values)       Forecast
Supply balance:                       currently
                                              2014 2015 2016 2017 2018                         2019 2020 2021
Private consumption                         36.10.7     0.2      1.5     0.9       0.4           1.9  1.3     1.2
Public consumption                          44.8
                                               -0.2    -0.6      1.8     1.7       2.7           4.3  0.4     0.7
Gross investment                            31.4
                                              -21.9   10.2     10.9     -4.1      -3.0         46.6   0.9     5.2
Exports of goods and services               38.8
                                               11.8    -9.9    15.2     -3.8       8.4          -5.3 -5.0     1.3
Total supply                               151.1
                                               -1.2    -1.1      6.7    -1.1       2.8           7.1 -0.5     1.9
Imports of goods and services               51.1
                                              -11.5     1.7    11.0     -3.5       5.0         18.9  -2.5     2.0
Gross Domestic Product                     100.04.7    -2.5      4.7     0.1       1.8           1.7  0.7     2.0
                                            Amount, DKK million (2010 prices, chain-linked values)
Total gross investment                        3404 3752 4161 3989 3871                         5674
Minerals and petroleum exploration              492    711      383      299      391           348
Gross inv. excl. exploration                  2912 3041 3778 3690 3480                         5326
GDP, 2010 prices, chain-linked values        14684 14312 14983 14990 15267                   15523
GDP, fixed prices, 2010 = 100                14554 14288 14825 14755 15018                   15368
GDP, current prices                          15951 16814 18224 18829 19199                   19890
Source: Based on data from Statistics Greenland 2014–2019. 2020–2021 figures are derived from
a forecast produced by the Economic Council of Greenland, “Greenland’s Economy”, spring 2021.

Table 1 shows that GDP in fixed prices (“chain-linked values”) rose by 1.7 per cent in 2019. Growth in
GDP in fixed prices is currently estimated at plus 0.7 per cent, compared with a previously anticipated
decline of 0.2 per cent. In other words, the Greenland economy did better in 2020 than people (the
Economic Council of Greenland) expected in the autumn of 2020. In spring 2021, the Council now
anticipates real growth in Greenland’s GDP of 2.0 per cent in 2021 for the year as a whole.

   1.3    Trends in commercial fishing
The fisheries remain the most important export sector and are absolutely crucial to the Greenlandic
economy and activity in society. This means that, given the current situation with COVID-19, it is also
important to ensure that the fisheries sector sustains minimal impact where possible.

Overall, the price level for halibut remained at a constant high from the start of 2015 until the middle
of 2020, despite fluctuations in individual quarters. In Q3 of 2020 the price of halibut fell due to
COVID-19 to its lowest level since Q4 of 2014. The price level for cod rose substantially between
2013 and 2015. Between 2015 and 2017 it remained at a more or less constant level. Since 2017, the
price of cod has shown a steep increase despite fluctuations in individual quarters. In 2020, as a result
of COVID-19, the price of cod fell to its lowest level since 2015. Since 2017, the price level for prawn
has risen despite large fluctuations in quarterly prices. The price trend is suppressed primarily by the
price of boiled and peeled prawn. However, prawn prices remained relatively high in 2019, but fell
during the course of 2020 to a level corresponding to that of 2014.

Figure 1 illustrates the price trends for prawn, halibut and cod for 2010–2020.

                                                                                                           7
Figure 1. Index of average prices per kilo for fish and shellfish, 2010–2020.
                      240

                      220

                      200

                      180
  Index, 2010 = 100

                      160

                      140

                      120

                      100

                       80
                            Base year

                                        1st quarter

                                                                    3rd quarter
                                                                                  4th quarter

                                                                                                1st quarter

                                                                                                                            3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                          4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                        1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                    3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                  4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4th quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1st quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3rd quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4th quarter
                                                      2nd quarter

                                                                                                              2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                      2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2nd quarter

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2nd quarter
                             2010                               2011                                                    2012                                                    2013                                                        2014                                                    2015                                                    2016                                                    2017                                                    2018                                                    2019                                            2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Cod, total                                                  Halibut, total                                                                         Prawn, total

Source: Statistics Greenland. Index: 2010=100.

The consequences and forecasts for the fisheries sector with regard to sales and prices ensuing from
COVID-19 and Brexit, based on the situation at the start of March 2021, are described in a separate
section.

Table 2 shows catches of the four most important species in the fisheries.

Table 2. Catches by fishermen and vessels on Greenlandic licences, 2012–2020.

Tonnes                                                                                                                      2012                                                    2013                                                        2014                                                2015                                                  2016                                                  2017                                                  2018                                                  2019                                                       2020
Mackerel, total                                                                                                             5,284                                     52,797                                                      78,382                                                  30,390                                             36,031                                                46,568                                                63,510                                                30,259                                                     26,539
Cod, total                                                                                                    21,625                                                  25,504                                                      31,117                                                  49,045                                             56,409                                                54,303                                                45,145                                                42,359                                                     37,629
 Cod, offshore                                                                                                11,010                                                  11,976                                                      12,619                                                  23,668                                             21,747                                                22,329                                                22,146                                                22,006                                                     19,315
 Cod, inshore                                                                                                 10,616                                                  13,528                                                      18,497                                                  25,376                                             34,662                                                31,975                                                22,999                                                20,354                                                     18,314
Halibut, total                                                                                                34,622                                                  34,829                                                      38,209                                                  38,191                                             42,231                                                38,144                                                41,072                                                45,841                                                     42,814
 Halibut, offshore                                                                                            13,062                                                  11,348                                                      11,464                                                  13,318                                             11,564                                                13,402                                                13,724                                                15,819                                                     15,032
 Halibut, inshore                                                                                             21,560                                                  23,482                                                      26,745                                                  24,873                                             30,667                                                24,742                                                27,347                                                30,022                                                27,781
Prawn, total                                                                                           109,376                                                        88,532                                                      83,456                                                  70,289                                             80,999                                                87,226                                                88,763                                                96,856                                               107,340
 Prawn, deep-sea                                                                                              51,169                                                  44,879                                                      45,287                                                  36,346                                             40,662                                                43,983                                                49,003                                                52,510                                                     57,873
 Prawn, inshore                                                                                               58,206                                                  43,654                                                      38,168                                                  33,944                                             40,337                                                43,243                                                39,759                                                44,345                                                     49,467
Source: Greenland Fisheries Licence Control Authority (GFLK).

Prawn exports accounted for approximately 45.4 per cent of the total value of commodity exports in
2019, rising to approximately 48.9 per cent in 2020. Prawn catches have been rising since 2015 owing
to increasing prawn stocks. In 2015, the prawn quota had dropped to 73,000 tonnes in Western
Greenland, but due to an improvement in prawn stocks, the prawn quota increased to 115,000 tonnes
in 2021. Of the total prawn quota in Western Greenland, Canada and the EU were allocated a total of
3,823 tonnes.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8
As indicated by Table 2, catches of cod increased strongly from 2012 to 2016. Overall catch volumes
of cod have been decreasing since 2016, primarily due to a large decline in catch volumes in the inshore
cod fishery.

Halibut catches increased in between 2012 and 2016, declined in 2017, but rose again between 2018
and 2020 due to larger volumes caught in both the offshore and inshore fisheries.

The Greenlandic offshore fishing fleet has undergone extensive modernisation, with substantial
investment by the companies in newbuild trawlers. In the period 2016–2019, seven new trawlers joined
the offshore fishery for prawn, cod and halibut, replacing older trawlers. An agreement has also been
reached on further newbuilds of offshore prawn trawlers scheduled for delivery in 2021.

More inshore licences
The inshore halibut fishery is of great significance for local communities and for Greenland as a whole.
During the period 2012–2020, an approximately 26,000 tonnes of halibut were caught by the inshore
fleet on average each year.

Figure 2 illustrates the trend in the number of licences for inshore halibut fishing in the period
2012–2020. The number of licences issued in the period 2013–2020 showed a steep increase. The
number of licences issued increased by 906, corresponding to an increase of approximately 71 per cent
during this period, while the number of licences that were actually used increased by 554, corresponding
to an increase of approximately 52 per cent. This large increase in the number of utilised licences has
contributed to a very substantial increase in fishing capacity.

Figure 2: Number of licences issued and utilised in the inshore halibut fishery, 2012–2020.

                                    2,400                                                           2,222                                     2,400
                                                                                                                          2,189       2,177
                                    2,200                                              2,054                     2,095                        2,200
                                    2,000                                                                                                     2,000

                                                                                                                                                      Number of issued licences (curve)
   Number of licences used (bars)

                                                                           1,724
                                    1,800                                                                                                     1,800
                                              1,566
                                    1,600                          1,508                                                    59                1,600
                                                                                                                  74                    71
                                                                                                      75                   117         126
                                    1,400                  1,271                         82          117         113                          1,400
                                                                                        117
                                                                            72                                             419         392
                                    1,200                                                            391         415                          1,200
                                                                    71     121          339
                                               42
                                    1,000      147          60     125                                                                        1,000
                                                           128             308
                                               119         117     212
                                     800                                                                                                      800
                                     600                                                                                                      600
                                                                                        959          989         987      1,057       1,029
                                     400       796         759     762     780                                                                400
                                     200                                                                                                      200
                                       0                                                                                                      0
                                              2012         2013    2014    2015        2016         2017         2018     2019        2020
                                       Dinghies, Area 47                    Dinghies, Area 46                            Vessels, Area 47

                                       Vessels, Area 46                     Total licences issued (right axis)

Source: GFLK

Note: Area 47 covers the fishery management areas in Upernavik, Uummannaq and Disko Bay. Area 46 covers
fishery areas in the rest of Greenland. Note that the total number of licences issued is shown by the curve, whereas
the number of utilised licences is shown by the bars.

The largest increase was in the number of dinghy licences in the period between 2012 and 2020, which
peaked in 2019 with a total of 1,476 active licences breaking down into 1,057 licences in Area 47 and
419 in Area 46. In September 2019, the Government of Greenland decided to suspend issuances of
new dinghy licences for the halibut fishery in Area 47 to applicants other those permanently resident in

                                                                                                                                                                                          9
Upernavik. It should be noted that there may be multiple vessels or dinghies per licence. This means
that the number of licences does not equate to the number of vessels or dinghies in the fleet. It also
means that, in principle, the fishery capacity could rise despite the number of active licences being
reduced.

The scientific advice regarding the inshore halibut fishery in Area 47 (the management areas in
Upernavik, Uummannaq and Disko Bay) is for lower than the annual catches made. In its November
2019 discussion paper, “Our Fish – Our Welfare”, Greenland’s newly appointed Fisheries Commission
indicates, among other things, that the increase in fishing capacity in recent years has driven quotas
above the sustainable catch level. This has led the Fisheries Commission to advocate for structural
adjustments with the ensuing moderation of fishing capacity in the inshore halibut fishery to bring it into
line with the sustainable catch level. The setting of quotas well in excess of the sustainable level is a
heavily contributory factor in reducing future sectoral and community earnings and employment
opportunities. Downscaling of the fishing capacity will also potentially free up labour for other sectors
where demand exists. In its forthcoming recommendations, the Fisheries Commission is expected to
present a proposal for future management of halibut.

The inshore fishery for cod, like that for halibut, is of great significance to local communities and to
Greenland as a whole. The annual catch volumes have been highly variable; see Table 2.

Figure 3 illustrates the trend in the number of licences issued for the inshore cod fishery in the period
from 2012 to 2020. As indicated by the figure, the number of issued licences increased substantially in
the period 2013–2017, by 78 per cent. The number of licences peaked in 2017, with a decreasing
number of licences issued in the years since then. This means that 155 fewer licences were issued in
2020 compared with 2017. There was a large increase of 563 in the number of licences utilised in the
period from 2012 to 2017, corresponding to an increase of approximately 81 per cent. Since 2017, the
number of licences used has remained more or less constant.

Figure 3: Number of licences issued and utilised for the inshore cod fishery, 2012–2020.

                     2,400
                     2,200
                     2,000                                                    1,911
                                                                   1,743                                  1,756
                     1,800                                                                1,674   1,706
                                                          1,549
                     1,600
   No. of licences

                     1,400                    1,302
                             1,247                                            1,251       1,250   1,255
                                                          1,163    1,194                                  1,192
                     1,200           1,072
                                              1,033
                     1,000           850
                      800    688

                      600
                      400
                      200
                        0
                             2012    2013     2014        2015     2016       2017        2018    2019    2020

                                             Total licences used      Total licences issued

Source: GFLK

Pelagic fishing
The Government of Greenland aims to focus increasingly on harvesting of both new and existing
species in new areas in alliance with the fisheries sector. The new species primarily consist of pelagic
stocks such as mackerel and herring. These stocks are migratory, periodically present in the waters of
different countries and in international waters.

                                                                                                                  10
In recent years, the mackerel fishery has helped to diversify the Greenlandic companies’ revenue base.
This reduces their exposure to fluctuations in quotas and prices for other individual species. Figure 4
shows the size of mackerel catches in the period 2013–2020, distributed according to catches by
Greenlandic and foreign vessels.
Figure 4: Trend in mackerel catches off Greenland, 2013–2020.
            90,000

            80,000

            70,000

            60,000
                                   47,085
                                                                                      25,228
  Tonnes

            50,000

            40,000       35,279
                                                                          17,802                    1,865
            30,000
                                                            16,676
                                                14,366
            20,000                                                                    38,282
                                   31,297                                 28,766                    28,394     26,539
            10,000       17,518                 16,025      19,355

                0
                         2013      2014         2015        2016          2017            2018      2019        2020

                                            Greenlandic vessels      Foreign vessels

Source: GFLK.

Mackerel catches have fluctuated over time and reached their previous peak in 2014. By far the largest
proportion were caught by Greenlandic vessels throughout. The total take in 2019 declined in
comparison with 2018, and catches declined still further in 2020 to 26,602 tonnes. This is the lowest
quota take since Greenland started fishing for mackerel.
Throughout this period, the proportion of overall catch volumes for Greenlandic vessels has grown from
approximately 32 per cent in 2013 to over 60 per cent in 2017 and 2018, and 100 per cent in 2020. This
is commensurate with the fact that Greenland was recognised as a coastal state for mackerel in the
autumn of 2016, and the with absence of mackerel in Eastern Greenland in 2019 and 2020. Recognition
as a coastal state means that since 2017 Greenland has also fished for mackerel in international waters.
Only Greenlandic vessels may fish for Greenland’s quota in international waters. Figure 5 shows
Greenland’s mackerel catches in the period 2013–2020, distributed according to the Eastern Greenland
areas and the NEAFC area, which is an international zone.

Figure 5. Greenland’s mackerel catches in tonnes in Eastern Greenland and the international
zone, 2013–2020.
            100,000

             80,000

             60,000
   Tonnes

             40,000

             20,000

                     0
                            2013       2014          2015          2016            2017          2018        2019       2020

                                            Eastern Greenland                International zone

Source: GFLK.
                                                                                                                               11
The option of fishing in international waters helps to extend the fishing season and thus maximise
utilisation of Greenlandic capacity.
On the other hand, it has also meant that herring has not been fished in Eastern Greenland since 2017,
as fishing for mackerel in the international zone takes place during the time of year when vessels
previously fished for herring in Eastern Greenland.

The mackerel fishery remains a very unstable fishery, since mackerel is a migratory species. As shown
in 2019 and 2020, there is no guarantee that large volumes of mackerel can be fished annually in
Greenlandic waters in future. This should probably be seen in the light of increased fishing in every
country, as a result of total quotas far exceeding the biological recommendations and the unpredictable
mackerel migration pattern.

As a coastal state for mackerel in the North East Atlantic, Greenland participates in coastal state
meetings on management of stocks together with the UK, the Faroe Islands, Norway, the EU, Iceland
and Russia. The 2014 arrangement on mackerel between the EU, Norway and the Faroe Islands
expired at the end of 2020. As coastal states, Iceland and Greenland were not included in the
arrangement on mackerel.

With the implementation of Brexit, the UK has become a new and important coastal state for mackerel.
How this will affect future coastal state negotiations is as yet uncertain. The fact that mackerel has
largely been absent from Eastern Greenland since 2019 has substantially weakened Greenland’s
negotiating position at coastal state meetings. This should be viewed in light of the fact that Greenland
can only set quota requirements based on Greenland’s fishing in its own zone.

To further the development of its pelagic fisheries, Greenland has gained access to fishing a total of
14,700 tonnes of blue whiting and 6,500 tonnes of herring in the waters off the Faroe Islands in 2021
via the bilateral negotiations with the Faroe Islands.

Revenue from resource rent taxation in the fisheries
The fishing industry makes a considerable contribution to revenues from fishing duties (resource rent
taxation), cf. Figure 6.

Figure 6: Revenue from fisheries resource rent taxation, 2010–2020.

                 450                                                                      426
                 425                                                                                405         386
                 400
                 375
                 350
                 325                                                            273
                 300                                                    269                                     265
                                                                                                  264
   DKK million

                 275                                    238
                 250                                            211
                 225
                 200
                 175                         122
                 150
                 125                                                                      92            98        90
                 100                    60             74
                  75                                                   5447     48         47
                       22    28                                3029               34
                  50                         19       19                            16       24          1727         1417
                  25
                   0

                            Prawn tax                             Halibut tax
                            Pelagic taxes                         Bottom
                                                                  Duty on fishing duty
                                                                          other species
                            Resource rent tax, total revenue

Source: Tax Agency.

                                                                                                                             12
Note: The duty levied on other species derives from duty on cod, redfish, haddock and pollock.

This is partly due to new, major revenue streams in recent years from historically high prices for prawn
and halibut, plus duties on mackerel fishing.

A new resource rent model came into effect in 2018 for the Greenlandic fisheries as a whole. The new
resource rent taxation model comprises the entirety of the offshore fishery, inshore fishery for halibut
and prawn and pelagic fishery for mackerel, herring, capelin, blue whiting and Atlantic argentine.

The revenue level from resource rent taxation has been rising sharply since 2010, increasing from DKK
22 million in 2010 to DKK 426 million in 2018 against budgeted revenue of DKK 384 million. Revenue
exceeded DKK 400 million once again in 2019 at DKK 405 million. In 2020 this revenue was DKK 386
million, against a budgeted revenue of DKK 393.5 million, despite the anticipated lower revenue due to
declining fish prices as a result of COVID-19.

The resource rent tax revenue reached record highs between 2018 and 2020. However, obtaining a
substantial amount of public revenue from fishing duties can be risky, as we know from experience that
the fishing industry suffers from fluctuating income over time.

Consequences for the fisheries sector of the COVID-19 situation
Demand for frozen fish products has been negatively affected since the start of the COVID-19
pandemic. The food service (sales to restaurants, canteens, and so on) and industry (production of
ready meals, sandwiches, and so on) segments in the USA and Europe were hit particularly badly by
the COVID-19 situation in 2020. It is estimated that sales to food service fell by 80–90 per cent and
sales to industry by around 30 per cent. Sales of products such as frozen cod and halibut fillets dropped
right down to zero. Besides the fact that restaurants have generally been closed, in some regions food
manufacturing has been heavily curtailed owing to employees being affected by restrictions. In the UK,
the largest market in Europe for boiled and peeled prawns, demand for food service has plummeted
while demand from industry has shown a slight decline. Demand in Asia has also been adversely
affected, but because home deliveries and takeaway remained strong, sales have been relatively good.

At the start of 2021 there are still problems with fish products having been set aside. Fishing companies
still have large stocks from 2020, because the sale of fish products is still moderate and strongly affected
by COVID-19. Around half of Greenlandic fish products are sold to China. In connection with COVID-
19, China introduced new restrictions in the form of additional health certification and is also checking
all foodstuff imports for COVID-19. These new restrictions in 2021 slowed processes enormously and
almost halted exports to China altogether.

The market in Europe is expected to normalise during the summer of 2021. However, the market for
fish products in China is extremely uncertain, particularly in regard to their import restrictions. The
growing level of COVID-19 vaccination notwithstanding, there is no doubt that the fishing industry will
still be financially impacted by the epidemic in 2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, fishing companies experienced a decline in average export
prices for prawn, halibut and cod of between 6 and 15 per cent relative to 2019. This has also had a
negative effect on prices commanded in Greenland. Whether prices fall still further in 2021 depends to
a great extent on how long it takes to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, prices are unlikely to
rise in 2021 given the large stocks of unsold fish products accrued by fishing companies in 2020.

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a limited impact on the value of Greenland’s exports. The
total export value in 2020 was only approximately 5.8 per cent lower than in 2019. This is primarily due
to larger export volumes of prawn and halibut.

                                                                                                         13
The effects on revenue from fisheries resource rent taxes of decreasing prices
Changes in demand for fish products with decreases in some market segments and increases in others
as well as the forecast fall in prices could significantly impact the tax and duty revenue from the fisheries
sector. It is difficult to define a concrete scenario as to how much the prices are likely to rise or fall and
how sold volumes of different species will be affected by changes in demand and prices. In its 2019
report, the Economic Council produced impact assessments for resource rent tax revenue in relation to
the duty base (export and land-sale volumes) and fish prices in 2018. In this respect, the Economic
Council chose to analyse the consequences for resource rent tax revenue, in isolation, of a generalised
fall in fish prices.

The revenue from fisheries resource rent taxation alone was approximately DKK 1.2 billion in the period
2018–2020, emphasising that these duties are a key source of income for the Treasury. The total actual
revenue from fisheries resource rent taxation was DKK 426 million in 2018. The revenue from resource
rent taxation may be impacted in two ways: either by fluctuations in catch volumes or in fish prices.

The Economic Council’s 2019 report shows that a generalised 20 per cent fall in fish prices would reduce
public revenue by DKK 232 million. Resource rent taxes would fall by DKK 113 million (approximately
27 per cent compared with actual revenue in 2018), income taxes by DKK 92 million and corporate
taxes by DKK 27 million. This indicates the direct impact on the national budget, and does not factor in
any derived effects.

In the event of a price fall of 10 per cent, resource rent taxes would fall by DKK 41 million, or just under
10 per cent, and the aggregate revenue loss would be DKK 101 million. These two scenarios show that
the link between a price drop and revenue is not linear. When the hypothetical price drop doubles from
10 to 20 per cent, the fall in resource rent tax revenue almost triples (from DKK 41m to DKK 113m).
This is due to the fact that, for certain species, it is not only the price but also the tax rate that goes
down.

   1.4    Partnership agreements with other countries
Greenland has a number of mutually dependent partnership agreements with the EU.
During the agreement period for the partnership agreement with the EU (2014–2020), the Greenland
Decision, cooperation between the parties focused on sustainable development, under which the parties
agreed to focus on education and training until the end of 2020. At the present time, the EU has not yet
decided on the frameworks for the partnership in the period 2021–2027. For this period, the Greenland
Decision has been merged with the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT) instrument, in an “OCT-
Greenland Decision”. The current status of the OCT-Greenland Decision is that once the Council has
completed its proposal regarding the Council Decision, the proposal will be sent back in order for the
European Parliament to issue its opinion. Once the European Parliament has issued its opinion, a
proposed Council Decision can be put before the Council for adoption and thereby approval by the
governments of EU Member States. The distribution of funds under the legal act has not yet been
decided, but it is expected that no changes will be made and that Greenland will be allocated euro 225
million for the entire period.
The planned merged Greenland Decision and OCT instrument will enable Greenland to apply for OCT
funding (project funding), for which Greenland has not previously been eligible. In addition, Greenland
and citizens of Greenland will still be able to apply for various funding instruments under a variety of EU
programmes such as Erasmus+, Horizon Europe, COSME, and so on. This is a measure for which the
Government of Greenland has not previously allocated resources, but that will now be rectified in 2021.
An appropriation was made in the 2020 Finance Act for appointment of one additional employee to the
Representation of Greenland to the EU in Brussels towards the end of 2020 in order to prioritise and
apply for EU programme funding/EU project funding. A new employee has been found and is expected
to start work on 1 April 2021. The COVID-19 crisis has delayed the process of taking on a new
employee.
In the preceding 2007–2013 and 2014–2020 Greenland-EU partnership periods, the pivotal factor for
the partnership under sustainable development was sectoral policy in the education and training sector.
In the OCT-Greenland Decision, the partnership between the EU and Greenland will continue to focus
primarily on the education and training sector, but one or two additional partnership areas may be
expected to be added.
                                                                                                           14
The new partnership sectors are to be identified jointly by the European Commission and the
Government of Greenland. It must be emphasised that this does not mean Greenland will receive
additional funds if and when the partnership between the EU and Greenland starts operating in another
sector. It means merely that the funds from the EU under the partnership will be distributed differently
to the way they previously were when funds were allocated exclusively to education. It should be noted
that the above-mentioned potential new sectors are domains that target development, where the
potential for wider international alliances may be a component, including with EU entities. It should also
be noted that, in adding another sector, the aim is not necessarily equal distribution of funding between
the new sector and the education and training partnership, but for the latter to remain the main
partnership area and the main beneficiary of the EU funding.

The Fisheries Partnership Agreement between the EU and Greenland
On 8 January 2021, Greenland and the EU concluded negotiations regarding a new Fisheries
Partnership Agreement for the period 2021–2026 and underlying fisheries protocol for the period 2021–
2024, which will regulate EU fishing in Greenlandic waters and the EU’s financial compensation to
Greenland for this. The negotiations were carried out at an official level from January 2020 over several
rounds of negotiation, including in Copenhagen and Brussels, along with countless technical meetings.
The Greenlandic delegation was led by the Ministry for Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture.
Brexit – possible impact on Greenlandic exports to the UK
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (the UK) officially left the EU on
31 January 2020.
One of the most important tasks for the Representation of Greenland in Brussels in 2020 was to work
on a draft trade agreement between Greenland and the UK, to take effect after Brexit. This task was
carried out in close collaboration with the Ministry for Finance. In 2020, 43 per cent of Greenland’s total
export value of boiled and peeled prawns went to the UK. 13 per cent of Greenland’s total export value
from fishery exports went to the UK in 2020. This makes the UK a key market for Greenlandic fish
products.
The current status of the trade agreement project is that Greenland sent a draft trade agreement to the
UK’s Department of Trade and Industry at the end of 2020. This will be supplemented by
a complementary agreement under Danish responsibility for the areas of foodstuffs and shipping, which
are relevant domains in the context of a trade agreement covering trade in fish products, in particular.
Until the final negotiations are in place, the UK government has adopted a temporary scheme that aims
to secure the status quo and tax-free imports of Greenlandic fish products to the UK. However, the
initial iteration of this scheme turns out not to cover a large proportion of Greenland’s trade with the UK.
At the time of writing, the parties are working intensively to adjust the temporary scheme so that it can
cover tax-free access to the UK for most Greenlandic products. The aim is for the scheme to apply until
a fully negotiated, permanent trade agreement between the UK and Greenland is in place. Formal
negotiations for a trade agreement between the countries have not yet commenced, but are expected
to begin in mid-2021.
Brexit – Memorandum of Understanding with the UK on fisheries cooperation
During the course of 2020 Greenland and the UK negotiated a Memorandum of Understanding on
increased cooperation regarding fisheries, which sets the framework for a bilateral partnership with the
UK after its exit from the EU. The UK’s fisheries policy was formerly part of the EU’s overall fisheries
policy, and as a result of Brexit the UK is in the process of developing its own fisheries policy.
Negotiations were carried out by the Ministry for Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture and the
Department of Foreign Affairs working in partnership.
The Memorandum establishes an annual Fisheries Dialogue in which the partners are able to build
cooperation in terms of fisheries management, research and control, and also gives the respective
fishing industries an opportunity to develop partnerships. The first Fisheries Dialogue will be hosted by
Greenland in 2021.

Package agreement regarding Pituffik
At a high-level virtual meeting on Wednesday 28 October 2020, agreement was reached regarding four
documents, which together represent the results of years of negotiations between the USA, Denmark
and Greenland about the matter of the service contract at Thule Air Base (Pituffik).
                                                                                                         15
At the end of October 2020 it was six years since the US Air Force had assigned the service contract
at Pituffik to a US-owned company. The Kingdom of Denmark immediately raised the matter with the
USA, since this assignment contravened existing agreements known as the Defence Agreement
Complex. These are the various defence-related agreements, supplements, and so on entered into with
the USA since 1951.

A package agreement has thus been entered into consisting of:

    •    A bilateral Common Plan for US-Greenland Cooperation.
    •    A diplomatic exchange of notes and associated appendices regarding the initiatives.
    •    A joint statement.
A Common Plan for Cooperation
The Common Plan for US-Greenland Cooperation concerns responsibilities that have been assumed.
This is a bilateral plan for cooperation between the Government of Greenland and the US Government.
The aim is to create a fixed, formal forum in which Greenland and the USA can meet and discuss
common interests, with the formal purpose of improving trade and investment relations. It will be a forum
in which cooperation on assumed responsibilities can be discussed, including trade and investment.
The document also contains a number of bilateral measures and initiatives that are new or recently
achieved. Among other things, financing is obtained from the USD 12.1 million (approximately DKK 83
million) allocated to civil projects in 2020.
Diplomatic exchange of notes
There was a verbal exchange of diplomatic notes between the USA, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
the Department of Foreign Affairs. The exchange of notes contains new criteria that offering companies
must meet in order to bid on the contract. The criteria replace the existing 2013 criteria. The new criteria
will thus form the basis for the US Air Force’s awarding of the service contract. The objective is to
ascertain, where possible, that the contract is allocated to a Greenlandic or Danish company in
accordance with the Defence Agreement Complex.
This has been ensured by inserting requirements for the offering companies’ links with Greenland and
Denmark in the criteria: partly in the form of a requirement regarding registration in the Danish Central
Business Register and ownership, and partly in the form of requirements as to who may have a ”decisive
influence” over an offering company. The conditions thus comprise a combination of requirements,
incentives and/or evaluation factors, including in particular the fact that the winning company must have
a registered address and management in Greenland. An appendix to the verbal exchange of notes
contains recently achieved and new initiatives with a direct impact on the base. These should benefit
Greenland.
A joint statement
The statement is intended to acknowledge the result achieved in the negotiations about Pituffik, and to
acknowledge the long shared history of cooperation based on shared values. It states that the parties
are committed to strengthening and improving the partnership in all areas, including politically and
economically and on peace and security.
It was important to Greenland that the role of Greenland and Pituffik in US and trans-Atlantic security
was recognised by both the USA and the Danish Government. This is the first public acknowledgement
of Greenland’s importance in the defence of the USA.

   1.5    Other commercial sectors
In terms of other commercial sectors, the COVID-19 situation is taking its toll on the tourism and mineral
resources sectors in particular. The description of other commercial sectors in the present 2021
Economic Report thus focuses primarily on the tourism and mineral resources sectors.

                                                                                                         16
Tourism
In its national tourism promotion strategy, “Tourism Promotion in Greenland – What will it take? (2016–
2020)”, the Government of Greenland focused on improving the operating conditions for the tourism
sector. The impetus for the strategy was a substantial decrease in tourist influx through 2014.
The aim of the strategy was to reverse the negative trend that had been observed. Specifically, the aim
was to revitalise the tourism sector in Greenland through a large number of targeted initiatives within
three main areas: marketing, accessibility and a boost to the frameworks for more private investments.
The strategy recommendations include the creation of visitor centres, capacity-building in the form of
new Atlantic airports in Nuuk, Ilulissat and a runway at Qaqortoq, the promotion of competency-building
education in the tourism industry and the promotion of private investment through initiatives such as
tourism concessions.
Figure 7: Number of cruise ship passengers and international air passengers in Greenland,
2018–2020.

               70
               60
               50
    thousand

               40
               30
               20
               10
                0
                        2018                      2019                      2020
                    Cruise ship passengers          International air passengers

Source: Statistics Greenland.

Based on subsequent developments, and given that there was an increase in the number of tourists
visiting Greenland between 2015 and 2019, the 2016–2020 strategy has already borne fruit. The
improvement was highest for the cruise ship segment, which increased by a full 86% during this period.
Progress was somewhat less pronounced in terms of international air passengers, but this figure still
increased by 5.4%.

Figure 8 shows a decent overall increase from 218,527 bed nights in 2015 to 265,844 in 2019,
corresponding to a 21.6% improvement. Bed nights among international tourists showed the biggest
increase during this period, up 38.5%, and in 2019, for the first time on record, more overseas tourists
than Greenlandic nationals stayed overnight in Greenlandic accommodation.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Greenlandic tourism sector
The spread of the global COVID-19 pandemic has placed the tourism industry under extreme pressure
on a global scale; similarly, the situation in Greenland has been extremely challenging for the
Greenlandic tourism industry. Inspired by other countries, and out of a desire to protect tourism
infrastructure that has been painstakingly assembled in recent decades, in 2020 and 2021 the
Greenland Government Authorities chose to offer relief measures to a tourism industry that was under
extreme pressure. These relief initiatives were introduced in the context of cruise ship traffic ceasing
altogether and the number of tourists arriving in the country by air being decimated for long periods due

                                                                                                      17
to the coronavirus. Via the state-owned enterprises Visit Greenland A/S and Air Greenland A/S, and in
consultation with the tourism industry, the Greenland Government Authorities introduced initiatives such
as promoting staycations (holidays taken in Greenland) and stimulating internal air and maritime
passenger traffic in order to increase domestic demand.

The COVID-19 epidemic is not yet over, and while expectations were previously (at the start of 2020)
optimistic in terms of when we could expect the pandemic to be at an end, it is now generally thought
that it may well take longer than anticipated and there may also be changes of a more permanent nature,
which may be expected to have a structural impact on the foundations of the tourism industry in future.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing and has also turned out to be hard to predict, a key
question here is whether a true return to a pre-COVID-19 situation is realistic at all. And, given this,
whether a long-term tourism strategy should potentially be modified. This is important for the purpose
of relief measures aimed at the tourism industry and also relevant in terms of when any real modification
should start.
To date, Greenland has taken an aggressive position in regard to both efforts and targeted measures
aimed at keeping the virus out of the country. This currently places the tourism industry under a lot of
pressure. Staycations and so on may offset this to a small extent, but they do not, in essence, make up
for it. The reality for 2020 and 2021 thus far is that Government of Greenland’s finances are subject to
demand for relief payments to a tourism industry whose future outlook cannot currently be defined with
any certainty, and for which structural and strategic adjustments may be required.

Figure 8: Number of hotel bed nights, 2015–2020.

             300

             250

             200                              118            119           134
                                101
  thousand

                    97
             150                                                                           53

             100

                                139           144            140           131
                   122                                                                    122
             50

              0
                   2015         2016         2017           2018           2019          2020
                                  Greenland citizens      International tourists

Source: Statistics Greenland.
In recent years up to 2019, tourism activity had been increasing. Tourism was negatively affected in
2020, however, and is likely to continue to be adversely affected by the COVID-19 situation for the next
few years. Statistics Greenland’s initial count of hotel guests and bed nights following the national and
international COVID-19 travel bans showed a decrease in the number of guests and bed nights
throughout Greenland. We can see from Figure 8 that there was a decline of (only) 9% in the number

                                                                                                      18
of hotel bed nights in Greenland among Greenland residents from 2019 to 2020, but a decline of 59%
among non-residents. The average decline from 2019 to 2020 was 34%.

Mineral resources
The mineral resources sector is intrinsically contingent on global economic trends. Investment in
minerals exploration in Greenland peaked in 2011 at DKK 711 million, falling to DKK 130 million in 2016
before rising again to DKK 239 million in 2018 and DKK 212 million in 2019. 1 Investments in 2020 have
not yet been tallied, but are expected to be substantially lower than in 2019 due to travel restrictions
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Investment from hydrocarbon companies for 2018 and 2019 totalled DKK 79 million and DKK 0 million
respectively. The figures for 2020 have not yet been tallied, but are expected to be the same as in 2019,
since activity was very low.

The hydrocarbon sector is once again managed by the Ministry of Mineral Resources.

Table 3 below shows the most well-advanced minerals projects, which either already hold, or are in the
process leading up to an exploitation licence.

Table 3: The most well-advanced minerals projects.
Project                          Status                                       Workforce size
Greenland Ruby A/S               Operations phase                             30-35
Aappaluttoq (rubies and pink     (exploitation licence: 2014)
sapphires)
Hudson Greenland A/S             Operations phase (exploitation             50 employees (approx. 25 at
Kangerlussuaq (anorthosite)      licence: 2015)                             the site at any one time)
Ironbark A/S                     Preliminary construction phase             Construction phase:
Citronen Fjord (Zn, Pb)          (exploitation licence: 2016)               Up to 300*
                                                                            Operations phase: Up to 475*
London Mining Greenland A/S                Various licence applications are Construction phase:
Isukasia (Fe)                              expected                         1,500-3,300*
                                           (exploitation licence: 2013)     Operations phase: 680-810*
Nalunaq A/S                                New exploration activities
Napasorsuaq (Au)                           (exploitation licence: 2003)
Greenland Minerals A/S                     Application for exploitation     Construction phase:
Kuannersuit (Kvanefjeldet)                 licence received. SIA and EIA    Up to 1,121*
(REE, U, Zn, Fluorite)                     are currently in consultation    Operations phase: 715*
Tanbreez Mining Greenland A/S              Exploitation licence: 2020       Construction phase:
Killavaat Alannguat (Kringlerne)                                            up to 140 (excl. chemical
(Zr, REE, Nb, Ta, Y)                                                        processing)
                                                                            Construction phase excl.
                                                                            chemical processing: 80
Dundas Titanium A/S                        Exploitation licence: 2020       Construction phase:
Northern Greenland (Ti)                                                     Up to 270*
                                                                            Operations phase: 175*
Greenland Resources Inc.                  Application for exploitation      Construction phase:
Malmbjerg Project                         licence expected in 2022          Estimated at 500
(East Greenland)                                                            Operations phase:
(Mo)                                                                        Estimated at 300
* Expected
Source: The Mineral Licence and Safety Agency.

It should be noted that there are currently two projects in operation (surrounded by dashed lines).

In addition to the tabulated activities, exploration activities are anticipated for a number of minerals
prospecting and exploration projects in 2021:

1
    Exploration investments include a supplement of 50% to cover overheads.
                                                                                                       19
•    The Greenland Ruby A/S ruby and pink sapphire project at Aappaluttoq is in production and
         has commenced sales of minerals mined during the exploitation phase.
    •    The Hudson Greenland A/S anorthosite project at Kangerlussuaq went into production, making
         its first bulk shipment in 2019. Production is continuing in 2020 with two more bulk shipments
         scheduled.
    •    The Ironbark A/S zinc and lead project at Citronen Fjord was granted an exploitation licence in
         December 2016, and since then, the company has been working to secure the financing to
         launch the project.

The issuance of an exploitation licence does not necessarily trigger commencement of construction and
exploitation activities. One reason for this is that the financing options are affected by trends in minerals
resources prices.

At the international Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Mineral Exploration &
Mining Convention in March 2020, optimism was running high, and there were expressions of interest
concerning many extensive exploration activities in the field. Since then, COVID-19 has escalated
globally and had a huge impact on the mineral resources industry. As a result of COVID-19, it became
very difficult to conduct prospecting in Greenland in 2020 due to issues such as travel restrictions. As a
consequence of this, in 2020 the Government of Greenland adopted three initiatives aimed at mitigating
the impacts on the mineral resources industry:

     •    Reduction of exploration obligations for all exploration licences to DKK 0 in 2020.
     •    Deferral of payment of fees for official processing of applications until July 2021.
     •    Release of collateral from cash deposits of up to 50%.

For 2021 the Government of Greenland has decided to extend one of these measures. Exploration
obligations for all exploration licences cost DKK 0 in 2021. 2021 has also been excluded, so that it will
not be included in the age of the permit.

   1.6    Employment and unemployment
Over several years in the lead-up to the start of 2020, the number of registered job-seekers had gone
down and employment had gone up. This was achieved primarily by encouraging young people who
were neither in employment nor pursuing education or vocational training as well as persons with
reduced capacity for work, to enter or return to education in the labour market. The number of labour
market rehabilitation placements has increased, and many of the attendees have gained employment
after completing their placement. Young people have embarked on education or vocational training or
have taken up employment with the assistance of increased uptake at the Majoriaq centres for jobs,
counselling and skills building.

A new employment strategy for 2021–2023 contains labour market initiatives and reforms to solve the
country’s great social problem, i.e. unemployment, in the following focus areas:

    1.   Develop more business sectors that can create economic growth and jobs.
    2.   Substantially reduce unemployment among young people.
    3.   Regional employment initiatives must ensure higher employment throughout the country.
    4.   Better alignment should be created between businesses and employees.

As a continuous indicator of labour market trends, Statistics Greenland publishes monthly counts of
the number of registered job-seekers who contact their municipal authority and are thereby registered
with a Majoriaq centre. In any one month, an individual counts as a registered job-seeker regardless
of whether they have been registered as unemployed for the entire month or a single day. Statistics of
registered job-seekers must not be confused with the unemployment statistics proper, in that an
individual might be unemployed without registering as a job-seeker (without which citizens are not
eligible for unemployment benefit or other benefits).

Figure 9 shows the unemployment trend in recent years expressed as the number of registered job-
seekers focusing on the months of January and September for the whole of Greenland in the period
2015–2020 (March 2021).

                                                                                                          20
You can also read