Economic Report 2021 - Naalakkersuisut.gl
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The Ministry for Finance and Domestic Affairs Economic Report 2021 1
Pursuant to Greenland Parliament Act no. 26 of 28 November 2016 on the budgets and accounts of the municipalities and the Greenland Government Authorities, the Government of Greenland presents an annual report at Parliament’s Spring Session on the economy of Greenland, including trends in public expenditure and revenues. Owing to the parliamentary elections, no Spring Session was convened in 2021. The Government of Greenland has therefore opted to compile an Economic Report instead, for distribution to Members of Parliament, and for general publication in line with customary policy for statutory political and economic reporting. The Economic Report primarily outlines and analyses developments within the economy and activities in key areas of expenditure and revenue, and describes the key indicators guiding the Government of Greenland’s economic policy, including the work of preparing the 2022 Finance Act Bill. The report will thus be instrumental in increasing the availability of information on the finances of the Greenland Government Authorities, and provide the basis for an informed debate on the economic developments affecting the Greenland Government Authorities and Greenland as a whole. 2
Foreword The 2021 Economic Report has been authored in continuation of a new coalition agreement following the recent parliamentary elections. The overriding message is “Solidarity, Stability and Growth”, which, as well as building on a clear vision for the Government of Greenland’s work and key themes, also paves the way for a goal of entering into broad, and thus lasting, agreements in parliament in critical areas of society. The 2021 Economic Report was also written at a very unusual time, marked as it is by the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Thus far, Greenland is one of the countries that has made it through the pandemic, which thankfully appears to be gradually having less impact. The report briefly reviews the status of the COVID-19 situation and the now reduced need for relief measures. The report focuses primarily on the economic situation and the long-term structural challenges in key areas, including via specific indicators, and on the overall objectives of the new coalition. The Government of Greenland and the new coalition will work on the basis of these key themes: • All measures must be sustainable • Development of trade and industry, including tourism, starting with innovation and job creation. • A strong focus on primary and lower secondary education, the education sector, culture and research. • Prioritising social and health-related prevention, focusing on early intervention and new ways of working in these areas. • Preparing a clear, lasting and long-term housing policy. • Implementing a cohesive reform in the area of the economy and taxation. • Reforming the central administration. In the coming period, the Government will prepare a more detailed basis for working on the respective areas. This means that, by its very nature, the Economic Report will not include a detailed, specific run- down of the forthcoming reform initiatives. These must be solidly prepared for and coordinated before they can be defined more precisely and a schedule set out. One denominator common to all this future work and these reforms is that they will help to create a stronger society with a greater degree of equality, based on respect for the environment and starting with the human resources available in Greenland. This means that the work will also focus on improving the population’s living conditions, access to health, education, and a healthy economy. The report includes updated goals and principles for the Government of Greenland’s economic policy and associated questions on borrowing and considerations regarding the financing of major investments in future years to ensure sustainable development. The report will also outline the task of ensuring sustainable economic development and the preparation of a new plan for sustainability and growth, as adopted by parliament in the Autumn Session of 2020. I wish you all enjoyable reading. Asii Chemnitz Narup, Minister for Finance and Domestic Affairs 3
Contents Foreword................................................................................................................................................ 3 Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 The COVID-19 situation and its implications for the economy of Greenland.............. 5 1.2 Key figures for economic development in Greenland ..................................................... 6 1.3 Trends in commercial fishing .............................................................................................. 7 1.4 Partnership agreements with other countries ................................................................ 14 1.5 Other commercial sectors ................................................................................................. 16 1.6 Employment and unemployment ..................................................................................... 20 1.7 Poverty measurement ....................................................................................................... 21 1.8 Expenditure on children and young people .................................................................... 24 1.9 The Treasury’s accounts for 2020 ................................................................................... 28 1.10 Integration with municipal financial performance .......................................................... 29 1.11 Taxes and duties ................................................................................................................ 30 1.12 Tax arrears .......................................................................................................................... 31 1.13 Debt trends .......................................................................................................................... 32 1.14 Maintenance and reinvestment backlog for airports and ports ................................... 34 Greater autonomy and economic self-sustainability ............................................................. 35 2.1 Goals and principles for the Government of Greenland’s economic policy .............. 35 2.2 Drafting of a block grant agreement with the municipal authorities for 2022 ............ 35 2.3 Digitisation driving socioeconomic development ........................................................... 35 The framework of the 2021 Finance Act and preparation of the 2022 Finance Act Bill .. 37 3.1 Budget coordination related to the 2022 Finance Act Bill ............................................ 37 Benchmarks and indicators ...................................................................................................... 39 4.1 Economic governance ....................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Use of benchmarks and performance indicators ........................................................... 39 Preparation of the Sustainability and Growth Plan ............................................................... 50 5.1 Improving the sustainability model .................................................................................. 51 5.2 Preparation of a new Sustainability and Growth Plan .................................................. 52 4
Introduction There is still broad political agreement on working towards a greater degree of independence. This will be done by building competency at every level and creating a stronger, more self-sustaining economy. The COVID-19 situation does not make this undertaking any less important. But it has revealed that our society, by working together, is in a position to deal with a large, complex undertaking better than most other countries – while also underlining Greenland’s position as an integral part of the global community and the importance of working with others in order to maintain and continue to develop our society. 1.1 The COVID-19 situation and its implications for the economy of Greenland In 2020 the pandemic imposed a range of substantial expenses on the Treasury, totalling DKK 404.1 million in 2020. Most of these funds relate to maintaining air traffic. 2021 will still bring COVID-19-related expenses linked to the maintenance of flights and operation of airports, as well as expenditure on testing, vaccination and maintenance of COVID-19 preparedness. These are unpredictable in scope. In the spring of 2020, when COVID-19 first became a problem in Greenland, the Government, with the approval of the Finance and Tax Committee, introduced relief measures aimed at trade and industry to relieve the consequences of the restrictions that the virus had imposed on normal working life. DKK 257 million was initially granted for this initiative. Support to cover businesses’ fixed costs has been offered if their turnover has fallen by over 30% due to COVID-19. Support has been offered to pay the salaries of employees whom affected businesses have chosen to furlough – not those working from home – rather than terminating their employment. Similarly, the Danish schemes allowed businesses to take out special state-guaranteed emergency loans – an opportunity that Greenlandic businesses have taken up to a limited extent. Later in the year, targeted schemes were introduced to stimulate demand in the tourism industry. These involved subsidising hotel accommodation and spending on recreational trips run by tour operators. A little later, a special travel discount was introduced for route operators. With effect from 1 August 2020, a package aimed at inshore fishing was introduced for three species. This scheme was designed as a price subsidy of a maximum of 10 per cent of the price in the preceding year, if the price commanded in any given month was more than 15 per cent lower than that in the corresponding month in 2019. In historical terms, prices commanded in 2019 were extremely high. In 2021, the Government of Greenland, with the approval of the Finance and Tax Committee, has introduced further relief measures aimed at the tourism industry. These end on 30 June 2021, and primarily cover the same interventions as the relief measures in 2020, but are specifically aimed at the tourism sector (and any businesses forced to close). DKK 45 million has been granted for this initiative. Work is currently ongoing on a phase-out package. As of the time of writing, this has not yet been passed. Before the election was announced, a working group had been set up in accordance with political will to investigate the potential need to offer measures aimed at inshore fishing in 2021, as well. In general, special relief measures for trade and industry should only be offered in specific situations that are temporary in nature. It is important not to impose unwarranted costs on society in the form of neutralising competitive pressure among businesses. If no further measures are implemented – and municipal flights cease on 18 April 2021 – the estimated overall additional costs relating to COVID-19 are in the region of DKK 100 million. 5
The Economic Council’s Chairmanship opinion on the current situation In its May 2021 spring report, the Economic Council’s Chairmanship offers the following opinion on the current situation: “While a global economic recession occurred during 2020, economic indicators indicate that Greenland experienced slight economic growth in 2020. There was also a small rise in employment. Prosperity in the building and construction industry and private consumption has been enough to ensure slight positive economic growth in 2020, despite the downturn in tourism and related industries. The number of international visitors fell considerably, and international hotel stays, restaurant visits and cruise ship visits are minimal or have ceased altogether. 3 per cent of people in employment work in hotels and restaurants, as well as those employed in tourist excursions, air traffic, and so on. “Financial development has thus been significantly better than it appeared at the start of the pandemic. This is mainly because lockdowns and restrictions to stop the risk of infection have been required to a lesser extent than in other countries. The most significant measures were travel restrictions – which have had major consequences for the tourism and travel industry. The structure of industry also helped to soften the impact of the pandemic. Fishing is the dominant export industry, and catches were only affected by changes in global economic prospects to a limited extent. In a fishing context, uncertainty primarily relates to changes in the price of fish and shellfish. The large public sector and the block grant also helped to reduce the economy’s dependence on international economic prospects. “The growth outlook for 2021 depends to some extent on the speed with which travel restrictions, etc. are lifted in the surrounding world. Travel recommendations and vaccine roll-out will affect holiday planning, and the tourism industry can be expected to have fewer international visitors this year than before the pandemic – although more tourists than in 2020. On the other hand, building and construction activity will be very high this year, and among other things, activities relating to airport construction are expected to speed up still further, while the outlook for offshore fishing is favourable in terms of catch volumes, and potentially also fish prices. Growth of approximately 2 per cent is expected in 2021. The labour market will still be characterised by high employment and a lack of a qualified workforce. “In response to the COVID-19 crisis, financial relief measures have been introduced for businesses and employees. The objective of these measures was to support companies and employees in situations where the economic possibilities were impacted by the lockdowns and restrictions imposed to limit the risk of spreading infection. Relief measures have become necessary in the extraordinary situation that arose as a result of the lockdown restrictions. It is absolutely crucial that these relief measures are justified in the indirect economic consequences of restrictions due to health grounds that directly (e.g. via lockdown) or indirectly (e.g. via travel restrictions) affect business opportunities unexpectedly. This is a very unusual form of economic policy, and such relief measures should therefore be temporary.” 1.2 Key figures for economic development in Greenland The Economic Council’s Chairmanship published its latest report in May 2021. The Council predicts an increase in GDP in the region of 0.7 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019, and an increase in GDP in 2021 of around 2.0 per cent. Actual figures for 2014–2019 and estimates for economic trends between 2020 and 2021 are summarised in Table 1. 6
Table 1. Supply balance, annual real growth as a percentage of GDP and gross investment in chain-linked values Share of GDP in 2019 Growth rate % (2010 prices, chain-linked values) Forecast Supply balance: currently 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Private consumption 36.10.7 0.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 Public consumption 44.8 -0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.7 2.7 4.3 0.4 0.7 Gross investment 31.4 -21.9 10.2 10.9 -4.1 -3.0 46.6 0.9 5.2 Exports of goods and services 38.8 11.8 -9.9 15.2 -3.8 8.4 -5.3 -5.0 1.3 Total supply 151.1 -1.2 -1.1 6.7 -1.1 2.8 7.1 -0.5 1.9 Imports of goods and services 51.1 -11.5 1.7 11.0 -3.5 5.0 18.9 -2.5 2.0 Gross Domestic Product 100.04.7 -2.5 4.7 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.7 2.0 Amount, DKK million (2010 prices, chain-linked values) Total gross investment 3404 3752 4161 3989 3871 5674 Minerals and petroleum exploration 492 711 383 299 391 348 Gross inv. excl. exploration 2912 3041 3778 3690 3480 5326 GDP, 2010 prices, chain-linked values 14684 14312 14983 14990 15267 15523 GDP, fixed prices, 2010 = 100 14554 14288 14825 14755 15018 15368 GDP, current prices 15951 16814 18224 18829 19199 19890 Source: Based on data from Statistics Greenland 2014–2019. 2020–2021 figures are derived from a forecast produced by the Economic Council of Greenland, “Greenland’s Economy”, spring 2021. Table 1 shows that GDP in fixed prices (“chain-linked values”) rose by 1.7 per cent in 2019. Growth in GDP in fixed prices is currently estimated at plus 0.7 per cent, compared with a previously anticipated decline of 0.2 per cent. In other words, the Greenland economy did better in 2020 than people (the Economic Council of Greenland) expected in the autumn of 2020. In spring 2021, the Council now anticipates real growth in Greenland’s GDP of 2.0 per cent in 2021 for the year as a whole. 1.3 Trends in commercial fishing The fisheries remain the most important export sector and are absolutely crucial to the Greenlandic economy and activity in society. This means that, given the current situation with COVID-19, it is also important to ensure that the fisheries sector sustains minimal impact where possible. Overall, the price level for halibut remained at a constant high from the start of 2015 until the middle of 2020, despite fluctuations in individual quarters. In Q3 of 2020 the price of halibut fell due to COVID-19 to its lowest level since Q4 of 2014. The price level for cod rose substantially between 2013 and 2015. Between 2015 and 2017 it remained at a more or less constant level. Since 2017, the price of cod has shown a steep increase despite fluctuations in individual quarters. In 2020, as a result of COVID-19, the price of cod fell to its lowest level since 2015. Since 2017, the price level for prawn has risen despite large fluctuations in quarterly prices. The price trend is suppressed primarily by the price of boiled and peeled prawn. However, prawn prices remained relatively high in 2019, but fell during the course of 2020 to a level corresponding to that of 2014. Figure 1 illustrates the price trends for prawn, halibut and cod for 2010–2020. 7
Figure 1. Index of average prices per kilo for fish and shellfish, 2010–2020. 240 220 200 180 Index, 2010 = 100 160 140 120 100 80 Base year 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cod, total Halibut, total Prawn, total Source: Statistics Greenland. Index: 2010=100. The consequences and forecasts for the fisheries sector with regard to sales and prices ensuing from COVID-19 and Brexit, based on the situation at the start of March 2021, are described in a separate section. Table 2 shows catches of the four most important species in the fisheries. Table 2. Catches by fishermen and vessels on Greenlandic licences, 2012–2020. Tonnes 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mackerel, total 5,284 52,797 78,382 30,390 36,031 46,568 63,510 30,259 26,539 Cod, total 21,625 25,504 31,117 49,045 56,409 54,303 45,145 42,359 37,629 Cod, offshore 11,010 11,976 12,619 23,668 21,747 22,329 22,146 22,006 19,315 Cod, inshore 10,616 13,528 18,497 25,376 34,662 31,975 22,999 20,354 18,314 Halibut, total 34,622 34,829 38,209 38,191 42,231 38,144 41,072 45,841 42,814 Halibut, offshore 13,062 11,348 11,464 13,318 11,564 13,402 13,724 15,819 15,032 Halibut, inshore 21,560 23,482 26,745 24,873 30,667 24,742 27,347 30,022 27,781 Prawn, total 109,376 88,532 83,456 70,289 80,999 87,226 88,763 96,856 107,340 Prawn, deep-sea 51,169 44,879 45,287 36,346 40,662 43,983 49,003 52,510 57,873 Prawn, inshore 58,206 43,654 38,168 33,944 40,337 43,243 39,759 44,345 49,467 Source: Greenland Fisheries Licence Control Authority (GFLK). Prawn exports accounted for approximately 45.4 per cent of the total value of commodity exports in 2019, rising to approximately 48.9 per cent in 2020. Prawn catches have been rising since 2015 owing to increasing prawn stocks. In 2015, the prawn quota had dropped to 73,000 tonnes in Western Greenland, but due to an improvement in prawn stocks, the prawn quota increased to 115,000 tonnes in 2021. Of the total prawn quota in Western Greenland, Canada and the EU were allocated a total of 3,823 tonnes. 8
As indicated by Table 2, catches of cod increased strongly from 2012 to 2016. Overall catch volumes of cod have been decreasing since 2016, primarily due to a large decline in catch volumes in the inshore cod fishery. Halibut catches increased in between 2012 and 2016, declined in 2017, but rose again between 2018 and 2020 due to larger volumes caught in both the offshore and inshore fisheries. The Greenlandic offshore fishing fleet has undergone extensive modernisation, with substantial investment by the companies in newbuild trawlers. In the period 2016–2019, seven new trawlers joined the offshore fishery for prawn, cod and halibut, replacing older trawlers. An agreement has also been reached on further newbuilds of offshore prawn trawlers scheduled for delivery in 2021. More inshore licences The inshore halibut fishery is of great significance for local communities and for Greenland as a whole. During the period 2012–2020, an approximately 26,000 tonnes of halibut were caught by the inshore fleet on average each year. Figure 2 illustrates the trend in the number of licences for inshore halibut fishing in the period 2012–2020. The number of licences issued in the period 2013–2020 showed a steep increase. The number of licences issued increased by 906, corresponding to an increase of approximately 71 per cent during this period, while the number of licences that were actually used increased by 554, corresponding to an increase of approximately 52 per cent. This large increase in the number of utilised licences has contributed to a very substantial increase in fishing capacity. Figure 2: Number of licences issued and utilised in the inshore halibut fishery, 2012–2020. 2,400 2,222 2,400 2,189 2,177 2,200 2,054 2,095 2,200 2,000 2,000 Number of issued licences (curve) Number of licences used (bars) 1,724 1,800 1,800 1,566 1,600 1,508 59 1,600 74 71 75 117 126 1,400 1,271 82 117 113 1,400 117 72 419 392 1,200 391 415 1,200 71 121 339 42 1,000 147 60 125 1,000 128 308 119 117 212 800 800 600 600 959 989 987 1,057 1,029 400 796 759 762 780 400 200 200 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dinghies, Area 47 Dinghies, Area 46 Vessels, Area 47 Vessels, Area 46 Total licences issued (right axis) Source: GFLK Note: Area 47 covers the fishery management areas in Upernavik, Uummannaq and Disko Bay. Area 46 covers fishery areas in the rest of Greenland. Note that the total number of licences issued is shown by the curve, whereas the number of utilised licences is shown by the bars. The largest increase was in the number of dinghy licences in the period between 2012 and 2020, which peaked in 2019 with a total of 1,476 active licences breaking down into 1,057 licences in Area 47 and 419 in Area 46. In September 2019, the Government of Greenland decided to suspend issuances of new dinghy licences for the halibut fishery in Area 47 to applicants other those permanently resident in 9
Upernavik. It should be noted that there may be multiple vessels or dinghies per licence. This means that the number of licences does not equate to the number of vessels or dinghies in the fleet. It also means that, in principle, the fishery capacity could rise despite the number of active licences being reduced. The scientific advice regarding the inshore halibut fishery in Area 47 (the management areas in Upernavik, Uummannaq and Disko Bay) is for lower than the annual catches made. In its November 2019 discussion paper, “Our Fish – Our Welfare”, Greenland’s newly appointed Fisheries Commission indicates, among other things, that the increase in fishing capacity in recent years has driven quotas above the sustainable catch level. This has led the Fisheries Commission to advocate for structural adjustments with the ensuing moderation of fishing capacity in the inshore halibut fishery to bring it into line with the sustainable catch level. The setting of quotas well in excess of the sustainable level is a heavily contributory factor in reducing future sectoral and community earnings and employment opportunities. Downscaling of the fishing capacity will also potentially free up labour for other sectors where demand exists. In its forthcoming recommendations, the Fisheries Commission is expected to present a proposal for future management of halibut. The inshore fishery for cod, like that for halibut, is of great significance to local communities and to Greenland as a whole. The annual catch volumes have been highly variable; see Table 2. Figure 3 illustrates the trend in the number of licences issued for the inshore cod fishery in the period from 2012 to 2020. As indicated by the figure, the number of issued licences increased substantially in the period 2013–2017, by 78 per cent. The number of licences peaked in 2017, with a decreasing number of licences issued in the years since then. This means that 155 fewer licences were issued in 2020 compared with 2017. There was a large increase of 563 in the number of licences utilised in the period from 2012 to 2017, corresponding to an increase of approximately 81 per cent. Since 2017, the number of licences used has remained more or less constant. Figure 3: Number of licences issued and utilised for the inshore cod fishery, 2012–2020. 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,911 1,743 1,756 1,800 1,674 1,706 1,549 1,600 No. of licences 1,400 1,302 1,247 1,251 1,250 1,255 1,163 1,194 1,192 1,200 1,072 1,033 1,000 850 800 688 600 400 200 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total licences used Total licences issued Source: GFLK Pelagic fishing The Government of Greenland aims to focus increasingly on harvesting of both new and existing species in new areas in alliance with the fisheries sector. The new species primarily consist of pelagic stocks such as mackerel and herring. These stocks are migratory, periodically present in the waters of different countries and in international waters. 10
In recent years, the mackerel fishery has helped to diversify the Greenlandic companies’ revenue base. This reduces their exposure to fluctuations in quotas and prices for other individual species. Figure 4 shows the size of mackerel catches in the period 2013–2020, distributed according to catches by Greenlandic and foreign vessels. Figure 4: Trend in mackerel catches off Greenland, 2013–2020. 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 47,085 25,228 Tonnes 50,000 40,000 35,279 17,802 1,865 30,000 16,676 14,366 20,000 38,282 31,297 28,766 28,394 26,539 10,000 17,518 16,025 19,355 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Greenlandic vessels Foreign vessels Source: GFLK. Mackerel catches have fluctuated over time and reached their previous peak in 2014. By far the largest proportion were caught by Greenlandic vessels throughout. The total take in 2019 declined in comparison with 2018, and catches declined still further in 2020 to 26,602 tonnes. This is the lowest quota take since Greenland started fishing for mackerel. Throughout this period, the proportion of overall catch volumes for Greenlandic vessels has grown from approximately 32 per cent in 2013 to over 60 per cent in 2017 and 2018, and 100 per cent in 2020. This is commensurate with the fact that Greenland was recognised as a coastal state for mackerel in the autumn of 2016, and the with absence of mackerel in Eastern Greenland in 2019 and 2020. Recognition as a coastal state means that since 2017 Greenland has also fished for mackerel in international waters. Only Greenlandic vessels may fish for Greenland’s quota in international waters. Figure 5 shows Greenland’s mackerel catches in the period 2013–2020, distributed according to the Eastern Greenland areas and the NEAFC area, which is an international zone. Figure 5. Greenland’s mackerel catches in tonnes in Eastern Greenland and the international zone, 2013–2020. 100,000 80,000 60,000 Tonnes 40,000 20,000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Eastern Greenland International zone Source: GFLK. 11
The option of fishing in international waters helps to extend the fishing season and thus maximise utilisation of Greenlandic capacity. On the other hand, it has also meant that herring has not been fished in Eastern Greenland since 2017, as fishing for mackerel in the international zone takes place during the time of year when vessels previously fished for herring in Eastern Greenland. The mackerel fishery remains a very unstable fishery, since mackerel is a migratory species. As shown in 2019 and 2020, there is no guarantee that large volumes of mackerel can be fished annually in Greenlandic waters in future. This should probably be seen in the light of increased fishing in every country, as a result of total quotas far exceeding the biological recommendations and the unpredictable mackerel migration pattern. As a coastal state for mackerel in the North East Atlantic, Greenland participates in coastal state meetings on management of stocks together with the UK, the Faroe Islands, Norway, the EU, Iceland and Russia. The 2014 arrangement on mackerel between the EU, Norway and the Faroe Islands expired at the end of 2020. As coastal states, Iceland and Greenland were not included in the arrangement on mackerel. With the implementation of Brexit, the UK has become a new and important coastal state for mackerel. How this will affect future coastal state negotiations is as yet uncertain. The fact that mackerel has largely been absent from Eastern Greenland since 2019 has substantially weakened Greenland’s negotiating position at coastal state meetings. This should be viewed in light of the fact that Greenland can only set quota requirements based on Greenland’s fishing in its own zone. To further the development of its pelagic fisheries, Greenland has gained access to fishing a total of 14,700 tonnes of blue whiting and 6,500 tonnes of herring in the waters off the Faroe Islands in 2021 via the bilateral negotiations with the Faroe Islands. Revenue from resource rent taxation in the fisheries The fishing industry makes a considerable contribution to revenues from fishing duties (resource rent taxation), cf. Figure 6. Figure 6: Revenue from fisheries resource rent taxation, 2010–2020. 450 426 425 405 386 400 375 350 325 273 300 269 265 264 DKK million 275 238 250 211 225 200 175 122 150 125 92 98 90 100 60 74 75 5447 48 47 22 28 3029 34 50 19 19 16 24 1727 1417 25 0 Prawn tax Halibut tax Pelagic taxes Bottom Duty on fishing duty other species Resource rent tax, total revenue Source: Tax Agency. 12
Note: The duty levied on other species derives from duty on cod, redfish, haddock and pollock. This is partly due to new, major revenue streams in recent years from historically high prices for prawn and halibut, plus duties on mackerel fishing. A new resource rent model came into effect in 2018 for the Greenlandic fisheries as a whole. The new resource rent taxation model comprises the entirety of the offshore fishery, inshore fishery for halibut and prawn and pelagic fishery for mackerel, herring, capelin, blue whiting and Atlantic argentine. The revenue level from resource rent taxation has been rising sharply since 2010, increasing from DKK 22 million in 2010 to DKK 426 million in 2018 against budgeted revenue of DKK 384 million. Revenue exceeded DKK 400 million once again in 2019 at DKK 405 million. In 2020 this revenue was DKK 386 million, against a budgeted revenue of DKK 393.5 million, despite the anticipated lower revenue due to declining fish prices as a result of COVID-19. The resource rent tax revenue reached record highs between 2018 and 2020. However, obtaining a substantial amount of public revenue from fishing duties can be risky, as we know from experience that the fishing industry suffers from fluctuating income over time. Consequences for the fisheries sector of the COVID-19 situation Demand for frozen fish products has been negatively affected since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The food service (sales to restaurants, canteens, and so on) and industry (production of ready meals, sandwiches, and so on) segments in the USA and Europe were hit particularly badly by the COVID-19 situation in 2020. It is estimated that sales to food service fell by 80–90 per cent and sales to industry by around 30 per cent. Sales of products such as frozen cod and halibut fillets dropped right down to zero. Besides the fact that restaurants have generally been closed, in some regions food manufacturing has been heavily curtailed owing to employees being affected by restrictions. In the UK, the largest market in Europe for boiled and peeled prawns, demand for food service has plummeted while demand from industry has shown a slight decline. Demand in Asia has also been adversely affected, but because home deliveries and takeaway remained strong, sales have been relatively good. At the start of 2021 there are still problems with fish products having been set aside. Fishing companies still have large stocks from 2020, because the sale of fish products is still moderate and strongly affected by COVID-19. Around half of Greenlandic fish products are sold to China. In connection with COVID- 19, China introduced new restrictions in the form of additional health certification and is also checking all foodstuff imports for COVID-19. These new restrictions in 2021 slowed processes enormously and almost halted exports to China altogether. The market in Europe is expected to normalise during the summer of 2021. However, the market for fish products in China is extremely uncertain, particularly in regard to their import restrictions. The growing level of COVID-19 vaccination notwithstanding, there is no doubt that the fishing industry will still be financially impacted by the epidemic in 2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, fishing companies experienced a decline in average export prices for prawn, halibut and cod of between 6 and 15 per cent relative to 2019. This has also had a negative effect on prices commanded in Greenland. Whether prices fall still further in 2021 depends to a great extent on how long it takes to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, prices are unlikely to rise in 2021 given the large stocks of unsold fish products accrued by fishing companies in 2020. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a limited impact on the value of Greenland’s exports. The total export value in 2020 was only approximately 5.8 per cent lower than in 2019. This is primarily due to larger export volumes of prawn and halibut. 13
The effects on revenue from fisheries resource rent taxes of decreasing prices Changes in demand for fish products with decreases in some market segments and increases in others as well as the forecast fall in prices could significantly impact the tax and duty revenue from the fisheries sector. It is difficult to define a concrete scenario as to how much the prices are likely to rise or fall and how sold volumes of different species will be affected by changes in demand and prices. In its 2019 report, the Economic Council produced impact assessments for resource rent tax revenue in relation to the duty base (export and land-sale volumes) and fish prices in 2018. In this respect, the Economic Council chose to analyse the consequences for resource rent tax revenue, in isolation, of a generalised fall in fish prices. The revenue from fisheries resource rent taxation alone was approximately DKK 1.2 billion in the period 2018–2020, emphasising that these duties are a key source of income for the Treasury. The total actual revenue from fisheries resource rent taxation was DKK 426 million in 2018. The revenue from resource rent taxation may be impacted in two ways: either by fluctuations in catch volumes or in fish prices. The Economic Council’s 2019 report shows that a generalised 20 per cent fall in fish prices would reduce public revenue by DKK 232 million. Resource rent taxes would fall by DKK 113 million (approximately 27 per cent compared with actual revenue in 2018), income taxes by DKK 92 million and corporate taxes by DKK 27 million. This indicates the direct impact on the national budget, and does not factor in any derived effects. In the event of a price fall of 10 per cent, resource rent taxes would fall by DKK 41 million, or just under 10 per cent, and the aggregate revenue loss would be DKK 101 million. These two scenarios show that the link between a price drop and revenue is not linear. When the hypothetical price drop doubles from 10 to 20 per cent, the fall in resource rent tax revenue almost triples (from DKK 41m to DKK 113m). This is due to the fact that, for certain species, it is not only the price but also the tax rate that goes down. 1.4 Partnership agreements with other countries Greenland has a number of mutually dependent partnership agreements with the EU. During the agreement period for the partnership agreement with the EU (2014–2020), the Greenland Decision, cooperation between the parties focused on sustainable development, under which the parties agreed to focus on education and training until the end of 2020. At the present time, the EU has not yet decided on the frameworks for the partnership in the period 2021–2027. For this period, the Greenland Decision has been merged with the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT) instrument, in an “OCT- Greenland Decision”. The current status of the OCT-Greenland Decision is that once the Council has completed its proposal regarding the Council Decision, the proposal will be sent back in order for the European Parliament to issue its opinion. Once the European Parliament has issued its opinion, a proposed Council Decision can be put before the Council for adoption and thereby approval by the governments of EU Member States. The distribution of funds under the legal act has not yet been decided, but it is expected that no changes will be made and that Greenland will be allocated euro 225 million for the entire period. The planned merged Greenland Decision and OCT instrument will enable Greenland to apply for OCT funding (project funding), for which Greenland has not previously been eligible. In addition, Greenland and citizens of Greenland will still be able to apply for various funding instruments under a variety of EU programmes such as Erasmus+, Horizon Europe, COSME, and so on. This is a measure for which the Government of Greenland has not previously allocated resources, but that will now be rectified in 2021. An appropriation was made in the 2020 Finance Act for appointment of one additional employee to the Representation of Greenland to the EU in Brussels towards the end of 2020 in order to prioritise and apply for EU programme funding/EU project funding. A new employee has been found and is expected to start work on 1 April 2021. The COVID-19 crisis has delayed the process of taking on a new employee. In the preceding 2007–2013 and 2014–2020 Greenland-EU partnership periods, the pivotal factor for the partnership under sustainable development was sectoral policy in the education and training sector. In the OCT-Greenland Decision, the partnership between the EU and Greenland will continue to focus primarily on the education and training sector, but one or two additional partnership areas may be expected to be added. 14
The new partnership sectors are to be identified jointly by the European Commission and the Government of Greenland. It must be emphasised that this does not mean Greenland will receive additional funds if and when the partnership between the EU and Greenland starts operating in another sector. It means merely that the funds from the EU under the partnership will be distributed differently to the way they previously were when funds were allocated exclusively to education. It should be noted that the above-mentioned potential new sectors are domains that target development, where the potential for wider international alliances may be a component, including with EU entities. It should also be noted that, in adding another sector, the aim is not necessarily equal distribution of funding between the new sector and the education and training partnership, but for the latter to remain the main partnership area and the main beneficiary of the EU funding. The Fisheries Partnership Agreement between the EU and Greenland On 8 January 2021, Greenland and the EU concluded negotiations regarding a new Fisheries Partnership Agreement for the period 2021–2026 and underlying fisheries protocol for the period 2021– 2024, which will regulate EU fishing in Greenlandic waters and the EU’s financial compensation to Greenland for this. The negotiations were carried out at an official level from January 2020 over several rounds of negotiation, including in Copenhagen and Brussels, along with countless technical meetings. The Greenlandic delegation was led by the Ministry for Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture. Brexit – possible impact on Greenlandic exports to the UK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (the UK) officially left the EU on 31 January 2020. One of the most important tasks for the Representation of Greenland in Brussels in 2020 was to work on a draft trade agreement between Greenland and the UK, to take effect after Brexit. This task was carried out in close collaboration with the Ministry for Finance. In 2020, 43 per cent of Greenland’s total export value of boiled and peeled prawns went to the UK. 13 per cent of Greenland’s total export value from fishery exports went to the UK in 2020. This makes the UK a key market for Greenlandic fish products. The current status of the trade agreement project is that Greenland sent a draft trade agreement to the UK’s Department of Trade and Industry at the end of 2020. This will be supplemented by a complementary agreement under Danish responsibility for the areas of foodstuffs and shipping, which are relevant domains in the context of a trade agreement covering trade in fish products, in particular. Until the final negotiations are in place, the UK government has adopted a temporary scheme that aims to secure the status quo and tax-free imports of Greenlandic fish products to the UK. However, the initial iteration of this scheme turns out not to cover a large proportion of Greenland’s trade with the UK. At the time of writing, the parties are working intensively to adjust the temporary scheme so that it can cover tax-free access to the UK for most Greenlandic products. The aim is for the scheme to apply until a fully negotiated, permanent trade agreement between the UK and Greenland is in place. Formal negotiations for a trade agreement between the countries have not yet commenced, but are expected to begin in mid-2021. Brexit – Memorandum of Understanding with the UK on fisheries cooperation During the course of 2020 Greenland and the UK negotiated a Memorandum of Understanding on increased cooperation regarding fisheries, which sets the framework for a bilateral partnership with the UK after its exit from the EU. The UK’s fisheries policy was formerly part of the EU’s overall fisheries policy, and as a result of Brexit the UK is in the process of developing its own fisheries policy. Negotiations were carried out by the Ministry for Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture and the Department of Foreign Affairs working in partnership. The Memorandum establishes an annual Fisheries Dialogue in which the partners are able to build cooperation in terms of fisheries management, research and control, and also gives the respective fishing industries an opportunity to develop partnerships. The first Fisheries Dialogue will be hosted by Greenland in 2021. Package agreement regarding Pituffik At a high-level virtual meeting on Wednesday 28 October 2020, agreement was reached regarding four documents, which together represent the results of years of negotiations between the USA, Denmark and Greenland about the matter of the service contract at Thule Air Base (Pituffik). 15
At the end of October 2020 it was six years since the US Air Force had assigned the service contract at Pituffik to a US-owned company. The Kingdom of Denmark immediately raised the matter with the USA, since this assignment contravened existing agreements known as the Defence Agreement Complex. These are the various defence-related agreements, supplements, and so on entered into with the USA since 1951. A package agreement has thus been entered into consisting of: • A bilateral Common Plan for US-Greenland Cooperation. • A diplomatic exchange of notes and associated appendices regarding the initiatives. • A joint statement. A Common Plan for Cooperation The Common Plan for US-Greenland Cooperation concerns responsibilities that have been assumed. This is a bilateral plan for cooperation between the Government of Greenland and the US Government. The aim is to create a fixed, formal forum in which Greenland and the USA can meet and discuss common interests, with the formal purpose of improving trade and investment relations. It will be a forum in which cooperation on assumed responsibilities can be discussed, including trade and investment. The document also contains a number of bilateral measures and initiatives that are new or recently achieved. Among other things, financing is obtained from the USD 12.1 million (approximately DKK 83 million) allocated to civil projects in 2020. Diplomatic exchange of notes There was a verbal exchange of diplomatic notes between the USA, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Department of Foreign Affairs. The exchange of notes contains new criteria that offering companies must meet in order to bid on the contract. The criteria replace the existing 2013 criteria. The new criteria will thus form the basis for the US Air Force’s awarding of the service contract. The objective is to ascertain, where possible, that the contract is allocated to a Greenlandic or Danish company in accordance with the Defence Agreement Complex. This has been ensured by inserting requirements for the offering companies’ links with Greenland and Denmark in the criteria: partly in the form of a requirement regarding registration in the Danish Central Business Register and ownership, and partly in the form of requirements as to who may have a ”decisive influence” over an offering company. The conditions thus comprise a combination of requirements, incentives and/or evaluation factors, including in particular the fact that the winning company must have a registered address and management in Greenland. An appendix to the verbal exchange of notes contains recently achieved and new initiatives with a direct impact on the base. These should benefit Greenland. A joint statement The statement is intended to acknowledge the result achieved in the negotiations about Pituffik, and to acknowledge the long shared history of cooperation based on shared values. It states that the parties are committed to strengthening and improving the partnership in all areas, including politically and economically and on peace and security. It was important to Greenland that the role of Greenland and Pituffik in US and trans-Atlantic security was recognised by both the USA and the Danish Government. This is the first public acknowledgement of Greenland’s importance in the defence of the USA. 1.5 Other commercial sectors In terms of other commercial sectors, the COVID-19 situation is taking its toll on the tourism and mineral resources sectors in particular. The description of other commercial sectors in the present 2021 Economic Report thus focuses primarily on the tourism and mineral resources sectors. 16
Tourism In its national tourism promotion strategy, “Tourism Promotion in Greenland – What will it take? (2016– 2020)”, the Government of Greenland focused on improving the operating conditions for the tourism sector. The impetus for the strategy was a substantial decrease in tourist influx through 2014. The aim of the strategy was to reverse the negative trend that had been observed. Specifically, the aim was to revitalise the tourism sector in Greenland through a large number of targeted initiatives within three main areas: marketing, accessibility and a boost to the frameworks for more private investments. The strategy recommendations include the creation of visitor centres, capacity-building in the form of new Atlantic airports in Nuuk, Ilulissat and a runway at Qaqortoq, the promotion of competency-building education in the tourism industry and the promotion of private investment through initiatives such as tourism concessions. Figure 7: Number of cruise ship passengers and international air passengers in Greenland, 2018–2020. 70 60 50 thousand 40 30 20 10 0 2018 2019 2020 Cruise ship passengers International air passengers Source: Statistics Greenland. Based on subsequent developments, and given that there was an increase in the number of tourists visiting Greenland between 2015 and 2019, the 2016–2020 strategy has already borne fruit. The improvement was highest for the cruise ship segment, which increased by a full 86% during this period. Progress was somewhat less pronounced in terms of international air passengers, but this figure still increased by 5.4%. Figure 8 shows a decent overall increase from 218,527 bed nights in 2015 to 265,844 in 2019, corresponding to a 21.6% improvement. Bed nights among international tourists showed the biggest increase during this period, up 38.5%, and in 2019, for the first time on record, more overseas tourists than Greenlandic nationals stayed overnight in Greenlandic accommodation. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Greenlandic tourism sector The spread of the global COVID-19 pandemic has placed the tourism industry under extreme pressure on a global scale; similarly, the situation in Greenland has been extremely challenging for the Greenlandic tourism industry. Inspired by other countries, and out of a desire to protect tourism infrastructure that has been painstakingly assembled in recent decades, in 2020 and 2021 the Greenland Government Authorities chose to offer relief measures to a tourism industry that was under extreme pressure. These relief initiatives were introduced in the context of cruise ship traffic ceasing altogether and the number of tourists arriving in the country by air being decimated for long periods due 17
to the coronavirus. Via the state-owned enterprises Visit Greenland A/S and Air Greenland A/S, and in consultation with the tourism industry, the Greenland Government Authorities introduced initiatives such as promoting staycations (holidays taken in Greenland) and stimulating internal air and maritime passenger traffic in order to increase domestic demand. The COVID-19 epidemic is not yet over, and while expectations were previously (at the start of 2020) optimistic in terms of when we could expect the pandemic to be at an end, it is now generally thought that it may well take longer than anticipated and there may also be changes of a more permanent nature, which may be expected to have a structural impact on the foundations of the tourism industry in future. Since the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing and has also turned out to be hard to predict, a key question here is whether a true return to a pre-COVID-19 situation is realistic at all. And, given this, whether a long-term tourism strategy should potentially be modified. This is important for the purpose of relief measures aimed at the tourism industry and also relevant in terms of when any real modification should start. To date, Greenland has taken an aggressive position in regard to both efforts and targeted measures aimed at keeping the virus out of the country. This currently places the tourism industry under a lot of pressure. Staycations and so on may offset this to a small extent, but they do not, in essence, make up for it. The reality for 2020 and 2021 thus far is that Government of Greenland’s finances are subject to demand for relief payments to a tourism industry whose future outlook cannot currently be defined with any certainty, and for which structural and strategic adjustments may be required. Figure 8: Number of hotel bed nights, 2015–2020. 300 250 200 118 119 134 101 thousand 97 150 53 100 139 144 140 131 122 122 50 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Greenland citizens International tourists Source: Statistics Greenland. In recent years up to 2019, tourism activity had been increasing. Tourism was negatively affected in 2020, however, and is likely to continue to be adversely affected by the COVID-19 situation for the next few years. Statistics Greenland’s initial count of hotel guests and bed nights following the national and international COVID-19 travel bans showed a decrease in the number of guests and bed nights throughout Greenland. We can see from Figure 8 that there was a decline of (only) 9% in the number 18
of hotel bed nights in Greenland among Greenland residents from 2019 to 2020, but a decline of 59% among non-residents. The average decline from 2019 to 2020 was 34%. Mineral resources The mineral resources sector is intrinsically contingent on global economic trends. Investment in minerals exploration in Greenland peaked in 2011 at DKK 711 million, falling to DKK 130 million in 2016 before rising again to DKK 239 million in 2018 and DKK 212 million in 2019. 1 Investments in 2020 have not yet been tallied, but are expected to be substantially lower than in 2019 due to travel restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Investment from hydrocarbon companies for 2018 and 2019 totalled DKK 79 million and DKK 0 million respectively. The figures for 2020 have not yet been tallied, but are expected to be the same as in 2019, since activity was very low. The hydrocarbon sector is once again managed by the Ministry of Mineral Resources. Table 3 below shows the most well-advanced minerals projects, which either already hold, or are in the process leading up to an exploitation licence. Table 3: The most well-advanced minerals projects. Project Status Workforce size Greenland Ruby A/S Operations phase 30-35 Aappaluttoq (rubies and pink (exploitation licence: 2014) sapphires) Hudson Greenland A/S Operations phase (exploitation 50 employees (approx. 25 at Kangerlussuaq (anorthosite) licence: 2015) the site at any one time) Ironbark A/S Preliminary construction phase Construction phase: Citronen Fjord (Zn, Pb) (exploitation licence: 2016) Up to 300* Operations phase: Up to 475* London Mining Greenland A/S Various licence applications are Construction phase: Isukasia (Fe) expected 1,500-3,300* (exploitation licence: 2013) Operations phase: 680-810* Nalunaq A/S New exploration activities Napasorsuaq (Au) (exploitation licence: 2003) Greenland Minerals A/S Application for exploitation Construction phase: Kuannersuit (Kvanefjeldet) licence received. SIA and EIA Up to 1,121* (REE, U, Zn, Fluorite) are currently in consultation Operations phase: 715* Tanbreez Mining Greenland A/S Exploitation licence: 2020 Construction phase: Killavaat Alannguat (Kringlerne) up to 140 (excl. chemical (Zr, REE, Nb, Ta, Y) processing) Construction phase excl. chemical processing: 80 Dundas Titanium A/S Exploitation licence: 2020 Construction phase: Northern Greenland (Ti) Up to 270* Operations phase: 175* Greenland Resources Inc. Application for exploitation Construction phase: Malmbjerg Project licence expected in 2022 Estimated at 500 (East Greenland) Operations phase: (Mo) Estimated at 300 * Expected Source: The Mineral Licence and Safety Agency. It should be noted that there are currently two projects in operation (surrounded by dashed lines). In addition to the tabulated activities, exploration activities are anticipated for a number of minerals prospecting and exploration projects in 2021: 1 Exploration investments include a supplement of 50% to cover overheads. 19
• The Greenland Ruby A/S ruby and pink sapphire project at Aappaluttoq is in production and has commenced sales of minerals mined during the exploitation phase. • The Hudson Greenland A/S anorthosite project at Kangerlussuaq went into production, making its first bulk shipment in 2019. Production is continuing in 2020 with two more bulk shipments scheduled. • The Ironbark A/S zinc and lead project at Citronen Fjord was granted an exploitation licence in December 2016, and since then, the company has been working to secure the financing to launch the project. The issuance of an exploitation licence does not necessarily trigger commencement of construction and exploitation activities. One reason for this is that the financing options are affected by trends in minerals resources prices. At the international Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Mineral Exploration & Mining Convention in March 2020, optimism was running high, and there were expressions of interest concerning many extensive exploration activities in the field. Since then, COVID-19 has escalated globally and had a huge impact on the mineral resources industry. As a result of COVID-19, it became very difficult to conduct prospecting in Greenland in 2020 due to issues such as travel restrictions. As a consequence of this, in 2020 the Government of Greenland adopted three initiatives aimed at mitigating the impacts on the mineral resources industry: • Reduction of exploration obligations for all exploration licences to DKK 0 in 2020. • Deferral of payment of fees for official processing of applications until July 2021. • Release of collateral from cash deposits of up to 50%. For 2021 the Government of Greenland has decided to extend one of these measures. Exploration obligations for all exploration licences cost DKK 0 in 2021. 2021 has also been excluded, so that it will not be included in the age of the permit. 1.6 Employment and unemployment Over several years in the lead-up to the start of 2020, the number of registered job-seekers had gone down and employment had gone up. This was achieved primarily by encouraging young people who were neither in employment nor pursuing education or vocational training as well as persons with reduced capacity for work, to enter or return to education in the labour market. The number of labour market rehabilitation placements has increased, and many of the attendees have gained employment after completing their placement. Young people have embarked on education or vocational training or have taken up employment with the assistance of increased uptake at the Majoriaq centres for jobs, counselling and skills building. A new employment strategy for 2021–2023 contains labour market initiatives and reforms to solve the country’s great social problem, i.e. unemployment, in the following focus areas: 1. Develop more business sectors that can create economic growth and jobs. 2. Substantially reduce unemployment among young people. 3. Regional employment initiatives must ensure higher employment throughout the country. 4. Better alignment should be created between businesses and employees. As a continuous indicator of labour market trends, Statistics Greenland publishes monthly counts of the number of registered job-seekers who contact their municipal authority and are thereby registered with a Majoriaq centre. In any one month, an individual counts as a registered job-seeker regardless of whether they have been registered as unemployed for the entire month or a single day. Statistics of registered job-seekers must not be confused with the unemployment statistics proper, in that an individual might be unemployed without registering as a job-seeker (without which citizens are not eligible for unemployment benefit or other benefits). Figure 9 shows the unemployment trend in recent years expressed as the number of registered job- seekers focusing on the months of January and September for the whole of Greenland in the period 2015–2020 (March 2021). 20
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