Economic Expert Witness Statement - Draft SPP and landscape controls to implement Surf Coast DAL Justin Ganly Prepared for Duffields Road Pty ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Economic Expert Witness Statement Draft SPP and landscape controls to implement Surf Coast DAL Justin Ganly Prepared for Duffields Road Pty Limited and Zeally Investments Pty Limited 4 March 2021
Deep End Services Deep End Services is an economic research and property consulting firm based in Melbourne. It provides a range of services to local and international retailers, property owners and developers including due diligence and market scoping studies, store benchmarking and network planning, site analysis and sales forecasting, market assessments for a variety of land uses, and highest and best use studies. Contact Deep End Services Pty Ltd Suite 304 9-11 Claremont Street South Yarra VIC 3141 T +61 3 8825 5888 F +61 3 9826 5331 deependservices.com.au Enquiries about this report should be directed to: Justin Ganly Managing Director justin.ganly@deependservices.com.au Document Name Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar 21 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed and by the DAL Standing Advisory Committee. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to those parties. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report where this has been provided by another party. This report contains forecasts of future events that are based on numerous sources of information as referenced in the text and supporting material. It is not always possible to verify that this information is accurate or complete. It should be noted that information inputs and the factors influencing the findings in this report may change hence Deep End Services Pty Ltd cannot accept responsibility for reliance upon such findings beyond six months from the date of this report. Beyond that date, a review of the findings contained in this report may be necessary. This report should be read in its entirety, as reference to part only may be misleading.
Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Approach 1 1.3 Abbreviations 3 1.4 Expert witness details 4 2 Surf Coast DAL 6 2.1 Background 6 2.2 Draft Statement of Planning Policy 6 2.3 Proposed landscape planning controls 15 2.4 Exhibition 17 3 Spring Creek Future Residential Area 18 3.1 Introduction 18 3.2 Am C66 18 3.3 Am C114 19 4 Torquay’s housing requirements 22 4.1 Introduction 22 4.2 Background reports 22 4.3 Demand 28 4.4 Supply 32 4.5 Assessment 38 4.6 Implications 40 5 Conclusions 49 Appendices Appendix A Curriculum vitae for Justin Ganly Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services 21
Tables + Figures
Table 1—Surf Coast population and dwelling forecast comparisons, 2016
and 2031 24
Table 2—Torquay SA2 population and dwelling forecast comparisons,
2016 and 2031 25
Table 3—Surf Coast and Torquay SA2 population and dwelling forecasts,
2016, 2031 & 2036 26
Table 4—Torquay SA2 population, 2001-2019 (as at June) 28
Table 5—Average annual population growth, selected areas, 2001 to
2019 (as at June) 29
Table 6—Occupied and unoccupied dwellings, Torquay-Jan Juc UCL,
1986-2016 29
Table 7— Residential building approvals by type, Torquay SA2, Y/E June
2012-2020 30
Table 8—Greenfield capacity, historical and current status (June 2018 &
February 2021) 35
Table 9—Torquay SA2 greenfield lot supply scenarios 37
Table 10—Torquay SA2 greenfield lot years of supply 38
Table 11—Previous place of residence – new residents in selected Surf
Coast, Geelong and Bellarine growth areas 41
Table 12—Demographic characteristics of residents of housing change
areas, 2016 Census 43
Table 13—Lot sales, size and price per sqm, Torquay, Y/E June 2010-
2020 46
Table 14—Torquay SA2 resident industry of employment, 2016 Census 48
Table 15— Torquay SA2 workforce industry of employment, 2016
Census 48
Figure 1—Duffields Land and Zeally Land locations 2
Figure 2—Surf Coast Declared Area 7
Figure 3—Proposed Surf Coast declared area framework plan 10
Figure 4—Proposed Torquay – Jan Juc settlement boundary (Option 1) 11
Figure 5—Proposed Torquay – Jan Juc settlement boundary (Option 2) 12
Figure 6—Western Hinterland 15
Figure 7—Spring Creek NAC catchment area 20
Figure 8— Residential building approvals by type, Torquay SA2, Y/E
June 2012-2020 30
Figure 9—Residential building approvals by SA1, Surf Coast Shire, Y/E
June 2017-2020 31
Figure 10—Torquay-Jan Juc greenfield and infill capacity (all available
lots) 33
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21
Figure 11—Anticipated development timing - residential broadhectare/
major infill land stocks (Torquay), June 2018 34
Figure 12—Recent significant greenfield activity, Torquay 35
Figure 13—Torquay, Geelong and Bellarine resident source markets 40
Figure 14—Torquay-Jan Juc housing change sub-areas 42
Figure 15—Median house price, Torquay and Jan Juc, Y/E December
2010-2020 44
Figure 16—Median house prices, Torquay and comparison regions,
2015-2020 45
Figure 17—Median lot prices, Torquay, Armstrong Creek and Ocean
Grove, Y/E June 2010-2020 46
Figure 18—Residential vacancy rates, Torquay, Ocean Grove and
Melbourne, December 2011-2020 47
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21
1
Introduction
1.1 Background 01 This statement addresses economic and land supply issues relevant to planning for
future residential land requirements within Torquay and Jan Juc.
02 The statement has been prepared for Duffields Road Pty Ltd and Zeally Investments
Pty Ltd, the owners of land at 140 Duffields Road, Torquay (“Duffields Land”) and 80
Duffields Road, Torquay (“Zeally Land”) respectively. These landholdings comprise
125.38 ha of the 247.42 ha of land within the Spring Creek Future Residential Area
(“Spring Creek FRA”) and are shown on Figure 1.
03 The statement is to assist the Standing Advisory Committee and its considerations of
the declared Surf Coast Distinctive Area and Landscape (“DAL”) and associated
draft policies and controls.
1.2 Approach 04 The tasks completed in the preparation of this statement have included:
• Reading and considering the exhibited documentation and relevant background
documents.
• Reading and considering other relevant documents and reports.
• Brief consideration of relevant submissions.
• Inspecting the Torquay and Jan Juc areas.
• Analysing a range of aerial imagery, demographic and other data available to
enable residential development trends to be observed within Torquay, Jan Juc
and the surrounding region.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21
2
Figure 1—Duffields Land and Zeally Land locations
Source: Submission to exhibited Draft SPP made on behalf of Duffields Road Pty Ltd and Zeally Investments Pty Ltd, 29 January 2021
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21
3
1.3 Abbreviations 05 The following abbreviations are used in this statement:
ABBREVIATION EXPLANATION
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics
Am C66 Amendment C66 to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme
Am C114 Amendment C114 to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme
Am C395 Amendment C395 to the Greater Geelong Planning
Scheme
Council Surf Coast Shire Council
DAL Distinctive Area and Landscape
DELWP Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and
Planning
Draft SPP Surf Coast Distinctive Area & Landscape, Draft Statement of
Planning Policy, November 2020
Duffields Land 140 Duffields Road, Torquay
G21 Plan G21 Regional Growth Plan, April 2013, G21 Geelong
Regional Alliance
Greater Geelong Settlement The City of Greater Geelong Settlement Strategy, August
Strategy 2020, Spatial Economics in conjunction with the City of
Greater Geelong
ha hectare
Landscape Controls Surf Coast Distinctive Area & Landscape, Draft Statement of
Planning Policy: Proposed Landscape Planning Controls,
November 2020
NAC Neighbourhood Activity Centre
REIV Real Estate Institute of Victoria
Scheme Surf Coast Planning Scheme
Settlement Background Paper Surf Coast Distinctive Area & Landscape, Draft Statement of
Planning Policy: Settlement Background Paper, November
2020
SC PSP Spring Creek Precinct Structure Plan
SFP Sustainable Futures Plan Torquay – Jan Juc 2040, Adopted
June 2014, Surf Coast Shire
SLO Significant Landscape Overlay
Spatial Economics Report Residential Land Supply & Demand Assessment, Surf Coast,
Final Report, September 2018
SPPF State Policy Planning Framework
Spring Creek FRA Spring Creek Future Residential Area
UCL Urban Centre and Locality
VIF2016 Victoria in Future, 2016, July 2016, Victoria State
Government
VIF2019 Victoria in Future, 2019, July 2019, Victoria State
Government
Zeally Land 80 Duffields Road, Torquay
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21
4
1.4 Expert The following expert witness details are provided as required in Planning Panels
witness details Victoria’s Guide to Expert Evidence.
Name and address of expert
Mr Justin Ganly
Managing Director
Deep End Services Pty Ltd
Suite 304, 9-11 Claremont Street
South Yarra Victoria 3141
Expert’s qualifications and experience
• Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance & Investment, Securities Institute of
Australia.
• Bachelor of Engineering (Chemical) (First Class Honours), University of
Melbourne.
• Managing Director of Deep End Services since 2003.
• Retail and property consultant for KPMG, Coopers & Lybrand and Coles Myer
from 1993 to 2003.
• A full CV is included at Appendix A.
Expert’s area of expertise to make report
• Preparation and presentation of economic expert witness evidence.
• Demographic analysis.
• Population and residential demand forecasting.
• Feasibility analysis for property owners and developers of all forms of property.
• Thorough understanding of residential, retail and commercial land use and
development patterns throughout Victoria.
Instructions that defined the scope of the report
I received written instructions from Best Hooper on behalf of Duffields Road Pty Ltd
and Zeally Investments Pty Ltd on 5 February 2021 as follows:
Having regard to the submission prepared by our client in response to
the DAL process, you are instructed to prepare and provide economic
evidence for the purpose of the SAC hearing which deals with, amongst
other things, the economic impacts of Option 2 included in the DAL
materials being implemented.
Facts, matters and assumptions upon which the report proceeds
• Stated in relevant sections of my report.
Documents, materials and literature used in preparing this report
• Stated in relevant sections of my report.
Assisting staff
• John Deane, Senior Associate at Deep End Services assisted with data analysis
and map preparation in this report.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21
5
Summary of the opinions of the expert
• Adoption of the Draft SPP associated with the Surf Coast DAL will have serious
consequences for the future supply of residential land within Surf Coast.
• Indeed, it will not be possible for Surf Coast to meet its 15-year residential land
supply obligations under either Option 1 or Option 2 put forward for the Spring
Creek FRA.
• A third option – which implements the approved Spring Creek PSP and
associated residential densities – is the only manner by which Surf Coast will go
close to meeting its new housing obligations.
• The implications of adoption of either Option 1 or Option 2 will include:
• Transferring the housing challenge outside of the Surf Coast (and mainly to
the City of Greater Geelong);
• Continued escalation in land and house prices;
• Continued tightening of rental vacancy and increases in rental rates; and
• Significant reductions in local construction jobs, with flow on effects to other
parts of the Torquay economy.
Provisional opinions not fully researched
• None.
Questions outside the expert’s expertise
• None.
Report incompleteness or inaccuracies
• None.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
216
Surf Coast DAL
2.1 Background 06 Parts of the Surf Coast Shire and City of Greater Geelong were declared a DAL by
the State Government on 19 September 2019.
07 To give effect to the declaration, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and
Planning (“DELWP”) subsequently prepared the following for the declared area in
November 2020:
• A draft Statement of Planning Policy; and
• Associated proposed landscape controls.
2.2 Draft 08 The draft Statement of Planning Policy is set out in Surf Coast Distinctive Area &
Statement of Landscape, Draft Statement of Planning Policy, November 2020 (“Draft SPP”).
Planning Policy 09 The declared area – often referred to as the “Surf Coast Declared Area” – is shown
on Map 2 of the Draft SPP and is reproduced in this statement at Figure 2.
10 This area is mainly contained within the Surf Coast Shire but also includes areas
north of Mt Duneed Road and Lower Duneed Road as well as Breamlea which are
located within the City of Greater Geelong.
11 The townships included within the declared area comprise:
• Torquay – Jan Juc
• Bellbrae
• Breamlea
• Connewarre.
12 The Armstrong Creek growth area is located to the north of the declared area within
the City of Greater Geelong.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
217
Figure 2—Surf
Coast Declared
Area
Source: Draft SPP
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
218
13 A summary information sheet has been prepared by DELWP to assist with the Surf
Coast DAL process and it can be found at https://engage.vic.gov.au/distinctive-
areas-and-landscapes-program/surf-coast
14 The information sheet provides a summary of what is proposed via the draft SPP and
associated proposed landscape controls as reproduced below:
Key proposals
These are the main proposals in the draft Surf Coast SPP and proposed
landscape planning controls.
A vision for the next 50 years: the draft SPP’s vision is that the
Wadawurrung, governments, public land managers, businesses, residents
and visitors work together to ensure the declared area’s unique values and
distinctive attributes — the things people love about the area — are
protected, enhanced and not degraded over time.
Objectives and strategies to protect and conserve the declared area’s
unique values and distinctive attributes, which are its:
• Rich Aboriginal cultural heritage: the declared area is of great
significance to the Wadawurrung.
• Environment and biodiversity, including the habitat of endangered
and threatened species, and distinctive places (such as Point Addis
Marine National Park, Karaaf Wetlands, Breamlea Flora and Fauna
Reserve and other coastal reserves).
• Environmental resilience, including climate change resilience.
• Historic heritage: our rich surfing history, culture and international
attractions (such as Bells Beach and the Great Ocean Road).
• Landscape significance: our dramatic coastal settings, superb views,
woodlands, wetlands and the rural vistas between settlements.
• Natural resources and productive land of significance, which support
a flourishing economy based on sustainable and responsible tourism,
agriculture and natural resources, manufacturing and other industries.
• Strategic infrastructure and built form of significance: Torquay–Jan
Juc is a vibrant and cohesive regional service centre, and
development must be sympathetic to the coastal and hinterland
landscape setting.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
219
Torquay – Jan Juc protected settlement boundary: A protected
settlement boundary is proposed for Torquay – Jan Juc, with two options
proposed for the Spring Creek area — the area is currently subject to a
proposed Precinct Structure Plan through Amendment C114. This reflects
the strong division of community opinion identified through public
engagement:
• Option 1: designates the Spring Creek area for low-density,
ecologically sustainable development and includes it within the
Torquay–Jan Juc protected settlement boundary
• Option 2: designates the Spring Creek area outside the Torquay – Jan
Juc protected settlement boundary and has it forming part of the
green break between Torquay – Jan Juc and Bellbrae. A protected
settlement boundary would be applied at Duffields Road and the area
between Duffields Road and Bellbrae would be rural land.
Torquay -Jan Juc housing change areas:
To accommodate housing supply while retaining the highly valued
coastal character of Torquay–Jan Juc, areas are proposed for:
• Minimal or incremental change: existing residential areas are
mostly identified as such;
• Substantial change: an urban consolidation area around Torquay
Town Centre and areas along the Surf Coast Highway are
identified as such.
Bellbrae and Breamlea:
Protected settlement boundaries are proposed to limit these settlements
to their existing areas.
This will maintain their village-like characters and protect the state-
significant landscapes in which they are located.
Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area:
The finalisation of a protected settlement boundary will be informed by
strategic planning work led by the City of Greater Geelong in
consultation with DELWP once Amendment C395 – Settlement Strategy
and Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas Framework Plan has
been completed.
Significant Landscape Overlays:
These are proposed to better protect most areas of the state-significant
Torquay Coast, Coastal Saltmarsh and Woodland landscape and the
nationally significant Bells Beach to Point Addis landscape.
15 The Draft SPP sets out that a framework plan must be prepared to guide decision
making for the land contained within the declared area.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2110
16 Further, at page 26 of the Draft SPP is the following statement in relation the
framework plan (with my emphasis added):
The plan must integrate environmental, social, cultural and economic
factors for the benefit of the community, encourage sustainable
development and identify areas for protection and conservation of the
distinctive attributes of the declared area.
17 It would appear that consideration of economic factors is based upon the DELWP
report Surf Coast Distinctive Area & Landscape, Draft Statement of Planning Policy:
Settlement Background Paper, November 2020 (“Settlement Background Paper”).
18 The framework plan contained within the Draft SPP is copied at Figure 3 of this
statement.
Figure 3—Proposed Surf Coast declared area framework plan
Source: Draft SPP
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2111
19 The framework plan also comprises Maps 10-15 within the Draft SPP which define
proposed settlement boundaries for the townships (and Armstrong Creek growth
area) contained within or bordering the declared area.
20 Two options for the proposed Torquay – Jan Juc settlement boundary are provided
at Map 10 and Map 11 within the Draft SPP and are copied in this statement as Figure
4 and Figure 5 respectively.
Figure 4—Proposed
Torquay – Jan Juc
settlement
boundary (Option 1)
Source: Draft SPP
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2112
Figure 5—Proposed
Torquay – Jan Juc
settlement
boundary (Option 2)
Source: Draft SPP
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2113
21 The following detail is provided on page 59 of the Draft SPP regarding the two
settlement boundary options:
Protected settlement boundary options for Spring Creek
We have heard through the previous two phases of public engagement on
the Surf Coast Distinctive Area and Landscape project that the Spring
Creek area — the area currently subject to a proposed Precinct Structure
Plan through Amendment C114 to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme — is a
divisive topic, with many people expressing very strongly that development
of this area should not go ahead, while other people advocating very
strongly that development occur.
A protected settlement boundary is proposed for Torquay–Jan Juc to
manage long-term growth of the settlement and to protect the state-
significant landscape setting, as well as areas of Aboriginal cultural heritage
and high biodiversity value.
Map 10 and Map 11 show two options proposed for the protection of the
distinctive attributes found in the Spring Creek area.
Option 1: Low density ecologically sustainable development (current
settlement boundary retained)
Map 10 shows Option 1, with the Spring Creek area designated for low
density ecologically sustainable development and included within the
protected settlement boundary for Torquay-Jan Juc.
Under this option, the area could be developed for residential and
associated uses in a way that is sympathetic to the state-significant
landscape setting, Aboriginal cultural heritage, historic heritage and
environmental and biodiversity values. The proposed Precinct Structure
Plan would need to be revised to provide for lower residential densities
including larger lot sizes and vegetated buffers along the Great Ocean Road
frontage, on ridgelines and at the urban-rural interface to the west, and the
retention of existing vegetation.
Alternative non-residential uses (such as a sensitive eco-tourism
development or community infrastructure) could also be explored for this
area.
Under this option, the location of the current settlement boundary in the
Surf Coast Planning Scheme would be retained.
Option 2: Green break area (excluded from settlement boundary)
Map 11 shows Option 2, with the Spring Creek area outside of the protected
settlement boundary and forming part of the surrounding green break
between Torquay–Jan Juc and Bellbrae. A protected settlement boundary
would be applied at Duffields Road and the area between Duffields Road
and Bellbrae would be rural land.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2114
Under this option, Spring Creek could be rezoned to allow for rural land use
and development consistent with the purpose of the green break (such as a
Rural Conservation Zone).
The final Surf Coast SPP will include one option for a protected settlement
boundary for Torquay–Jan Juc and this will form part of the framework plan
shown in Map 3 and be implemented through the planning scheme.
22 No information is provided within the Draft SPP (or, indeed, the Settlement
Background Paper) regarding lot sizes and/or densities which would represent “low
density ecologically sustainable development” allowed at Spring Creek in Option 1.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2115
2.3 Proposed 23 The proposed landscape planning controls associated with the Draft SPP are set out
landscape in Surf Coast Distinctive Area & Landscape, Draft Statement of Planning Policy:
planning controls Proposed Landscape Planning Controls, November 2020 (“Landscape Controls”).
24 The Landscape Controls propose to introduce three new Significant Landscape
Overlays (“SLOs”) to assist in implementing the Draft SPP.
25 SLO8 is proposed to apply to an area referred to as the Western Hinterland in the
Landscape Controls.
26 As shown on Figure 6, the Western Hinterland includes the Spring Creek area.
Figure 6—Western
Hinterland
Source: Landscape
Controls
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2116
27 The Landscape Controls contain the following with the proposed SLO8:
Landscape character objectives to be achieved
• To minimise the visual impact of development on the Surf Coast Western
Hinterland including on views of the landscape from road corridors that
traverse the area, particularly the Great Ocean Road.
• To ensure that development demonstrates a high standard of design and
responds to the identified character and significance of the surrounding
landscape.
• To minimise the removal of remnant native and indigenous vegetation and
faunal habitat.
• To minimise impacts on Spring Creek and its tributaries.
• To ensure that high points and ridgelines remain free from development, with
no built form protruding above the natural topography and views to elevated
areas revealing the natural form of the landscape and the presence of canopy
trees against the sky, rather than buildings.
Application requirements
• A site analysis showing the existing landscape context including topography,
vegetation, any waterways or landscape features and views to the site from
roads, public reserves, tourist walks and viewing decks.
• A landscape plan that specifies locally appropriate vegetation species.
• A visual impact assessment of the proposal from adjacent road corridors,
especially the Great Ocean Road, Grossmans Road, Gundrys Road and
Elkington Road as relevant, with particular consideration of the impact of the
proposal on the foreground of views, adjacent to the roadside.
Decision guidelines
• The visual impact of the buildings or works on the significance of the Surf
Coast Western Hinterland area.
• Whether the buildings or works:
• would be visually prominent in locations such as ridgelines and hill faces
• would be visually impactful from road corridors that travel through the
landscape including the Great Ocean Road, Grossmans Road, Gundrys
Road and Elkington Road, with particular consideration to the foreground
of views, adjacent to the roadside
• are screened by vegetation or landscaping
• follow the contours and natural form of the landscape
• require cut-and-fill and other earthworks
• are an adequate distance from waterways to protect their undeveloped
landscape character and riparian vegetation.
• The effect of removing remnant vegetation on the landscape character and
significance of the area.
• The species of vegetation.
• How the land will be remediated after development.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2117
• Whether farm access tracks or other access roads are located across the
slope to minimise their visibility.
2.4 Exhibition 28 The Draft SPP and Landscape Controls were exhibited from 19 November 2020 and
29 January 2021.
29 3,159 submissions were made regarding the exhibited documentation, including
submission 2884 made by Best Hooper on behalf of Duffields Road Pty Ltd and
Zeally Investments Pty Ltd.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2118
Spring Creek Future Residential Area
3.1 Introduction 30 The history of the proposed development of the Spring Creek FRA extends back to
1996 when the Comprehensive Strategy Plan for Torquay–Jan Juc prepared by the
Surf Coast Shire Council nominated:
• The Spring Creek FRA as a long-term growth corridor; and
• The area beyond the first kilometre west of Duffields Road as a special
investigation area.
31 Since that time, planning for the Spring Creek FRA has been contentious.
32 I will leave it to others to examine the planning history of the Spring Creek FRA in
more detail (noting the useful timeline provided at Appendix 2 within the Settlement
Background Paper).
33 In the remainder of this section, however, I provide detail on my involvement in two
Planning Scheme Amendments of relevance.
3.2 Am C66 34 My statement of 17 June 2013 was prepared for Duffields Road Pty Ltd as the owner
of 140 Duffields Road, Jan Juc, located within an area referred to at the time as the
Spring Creek Urban Growth Corridor.
35 The statement was to assist the Panel formed to consider Amendment C66 (“Am
C66”) to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme (“Scheme”).
36 Am C66 proposed, amongst other things, to move the settlement boundary back
from the 1km line to Duffields Road, therefore removing the Spring Creek FRA from
residential development consideration.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2119
37 My statement’s conclusions were:
• Council must plan for 320 new dwellings per year for the period to 2040 (as
considered in the SFP) for growth areas in Torquay – Jan Juc. This is a total
of 8,640 new dwellings in these areas during this time.
• There is not sufficient land available within the current settlement boundary
to provide the required number of lots.
• A contraction of the settlement boundary to exclude the Spring Creek Urban
Growth Corridor – which is capable of providing 1,900 lots in an integrated
community close to the Torquay Town Centre – would be a poor planning
and economic decision.
• Such a contraction should be excluded from the Sustainable Futures Plan
Torquay – Jan Juc 2040 (“SFP”) and a Neighbourhood Activity Centre (“NAC”)
should also be designated for Spring Creek to serve this and the surrounding
poorly provisioned areas of Jan Juc and Torquay West.
• Suggestions that residential development at Messmate Road and Torquay
North-East (the latter necessitating an expansion of the settlement boundary)
are better alternatives than Spring Creek are ill-founded.
38 The Panel agreed with my assessment of demand for future dwellings in Torquay’s
growth areas, adopting a range of 300-340 lots per year.
39 This, and the Panel’s doubts regarding the suitability of land at Messmate Road and
Torquay North East, was a key contributor to the Panel concluding that Council
should abandon its position regarding moving the settlement boundary back to
Duffields Road.
40 The Panel also accepted my estimate that the land within the “1km” band to the west
of Duffields Road was capable of supplying approximately 1,900 lots.
3.3 Am C114 41 My statement of 24 October 2016 was also prepared for Duffields Road Pty Ltd.
42 The statement was to assist the Panel formed to consider Amendment C114 (“Am
C114”) to the Scheme.
43 Am C114 sought to, amongst other things, implement the Spring Creek FRA Precinct
Structure Plan (“PSP”).
44 I was asked to examine economic issues relevant to future planning for a
Neighbourhood Activity Centre (“NAC”) to be developed by my client within the
PSP area at a location shown on Figure 7.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2120
Figure 7—Spring Creek NAC catchment area
Source: Am C114 statement; Nearmap; MapInfo
45 My Am C114 statement’s conclusions were:
• The Spring Creek PSP and associated planning controls will permit the
development of a Neighbourhood Activity Centre within the southern precinct
with a retail floorspace ‘soft cap’ of 5,000 sqm.
• Surf Coast Shire Council engaged Tim Nott to examine the intended location,
scale and timing of the Spring Creek NAC.
• The Nott Report endorsed the need for the NAC, its location and ultimate size
but suggested that the centre should be staged to only allow 3,200 sqm to be
developed in 2021 and 5,000 sqm in 2030.
• My opinion is that retail floorspace of 5,000 sqm is required and supportable
at the Spring Creek NAC from 2021 (or earlier) and that there is no
requirement for staging.
46 The Panel agreed with my opinion and suggested that the Spring Creek PSP be
amended to allow for a larger centre to be delivered earlier than 2030 if supported
by economic evidence at that time.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2121
47 Of particular note is that the catchment that would be served by the Spring Creek
NAC contains the established area of Jan Juc as well as Surf View Estate, Ocean
Views Estate and Great Ocean Views on the eastern side of Duffields Road.
48 This area already contained a substantial population of 7,598 at June 2017
(immediately prior to when I had assumed development would start to occur within
the Spring Creek FRA).
49 In my opinion, these residents are poorly provided for with respect to access to
convenience shopping facilities.
50 The residential development of the Spring Creek FRA would therefore have the
additional benefit of resulting in delivery of a NAC which would improve the amenity
of these existing nearby residents.
51 In relation to residential development within the Spring Creek FRA:
• The exhibited PSP for Am C114 contemplated 1,781 dwellings at an average
density of 9.65 per net developable area of 184 ha;
• The Panel was of the opinion that such a density represented underdevelopment
of the area; and
• Surf Coast Council subsequently altered the PSP to increase the number of
dwellings to 1,940 – via more intensive development around the Christian
College School, NAC and local centres – and adopted the Amendment in
October 2017.
52 It now appears accepted that 1,940 dwellings is the ultimate housing outcome
achievable via the Spring Creek PSP (noting, for example, the use of this number
within the Settlement Background Paper).
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2122
Torquay’s housing requirements
4.1 Introduction 53 In this section of my statement, I first analyse the various background reports
prepared prior to the Draft SPP to understand the backdrop to the future housing
requirements for Surf Coast and, more particularly, Torquay.
54 I then set out key data in relation to demand and supply conditions within the area,
discuss the implications and set out my conclusions as to the impact of the Draft SPP
on future housing and associated economic issues for Surf Coast and Torquay.
4.2 Background G21 Regional Growth Plan
reports 55 The G21 Regional Growth Plan of April 2013 (“G21 Plan”) seeks to guide the growth
plans to 2050 of five LGAs:
• Greater Geelong
• Queenscliffe
• Colac Otway
• Surf Coast
• Golden Plains.
56 Torquay-Jan Juc is designated as a District Town within the G21 Plan with
expectations that it will accommodate significant growth in population and
employment.
57 One of seven District Towns identified in the study, Torquay-Jan Juc is the only such
location between Geelong and Warrnambool on the coastline.
58 Torquay-Jan Juc’s position on the Great Ocean Road, identified as a key transport
spine, and its District Town designation, makes it an important strategic location,
connected to and supporting smaller towns and communities.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2123
59 As noted on page 46 of the Settlement Background Paper:
The assumption that Spring Creek Future Residential Area would
contribute to the housing supply for Torquay–Jan Juc informed the G21
Regional Growth Plan including the forecast allocation of population
growth across the region. It has also informed Surf Coast Shire Council’s
strategic planning work.
60 On page 47, the Settlement Background Paper then sets out the implications of
adoption of Option 2 for the Spring Creek FRA as follows:
Under this option, the land at Spring Creek Future Residential Area is
rezoned to an appropriate rural zone and future residential growth
accommodated elsewhere within the Torquay–Jan Juc urban area,
within the Surf Coast Shire local government area and/or the G21 region.
61 I cannot find any such discussion within the Draft SPP.
62 The only other possible location for residential growth within Surf Coast is
Winchelsea.
63 However, while the G21 Plan designates Winchelsea as having growth prospects,
this is acknowledged as being unlikely to happen until at least “2030-2040”.
64 I am unaware of any recent strategic planning work being undertaken within
Winchelsea to enable a substantial increase in dwellings within the township and,
further, note the stark difference between the Torquay (coastal) and Winchelsea
(rural) settings from the perspective of potential residents.
Residential Land Supply & Demand Assessment, Surf Coast
65 Spatial Economics completes periodic reviews of residential and industrial land
demand and supply for the municipalities which comprise the G21 region.
66 The most recent study of residential land for the Surf Coast Shire was Residential
Land Supply & Demand Assessment, Surf Coast, Final Report, September 2018
(“Spatial Economics Report”).
67 The key findings of the Spatial Economics Report in relation to residential land stock
adequacy were (with my emphasis added):
• In terms of zoned broadhectare/major infill residential land stocks it is
estimated based on the identified supply and projected demand scenarios,
there are sufficient land stocks to satisfy between 5 to 7 years of demand
across the Surf Coast municipality.
• In addition, there are sufficient unzoned broadhectare/major infill residential
land stocks (this includes the Spring Creek land release area) to satisfy
between 9 to 12 years of demand.
• Spatial Economics consider that the total stock of zoned broadhectare
residential land is sufficient to meet short-term requirements. However, in the
interests of maintaining both a competitive land supply market and meeting
underlying dwelling requirements, it is recommended that the stock of zoned
broadhectare residential land be increased in the short term.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2124
68 I am unaware of any of the recommended rezonings taking place since the report’s
completion two and half years ago.
69 I also note that the unzoned land referred to in the Spatial Economics Report
included 1,939 lots within Spring Creek, with those lots representing 50% of the
identified unzoned land within Torquay.
70 The identified unzoned land also included Messmate Road (850 lots) and the
Torquay North East Future Residential Investigation Area (760 lots) with the latter
highlighted within the Draft SPP as facing significant drainage and other
environmental challenges.
71 Since the Spatial Economics Report was completed in September 2018, annual
residential building approvals within the Torquay SA2 have accelerated significantly
from an average of 280 per annum for the 2012-2017 financial years to 490 per
annum for the 2018-2020 financial years.
72 I note, therefore that the acceleration in building approvals is likely to have resulted
in zoned land stocks diminishing more rapidly than the range of rates used to
calculate the 5 to 7 years of remaining supply estimated in the Spatial Economics
Report.
73 This is a critical issue to which I will return in my subsequent discussion of the
Settlement Background Paper where housing supply assessments appear to have
been based entirely upon data contained within the Spatial Economics Report.
VIF 2019
74 The State Government released Victoria in Future 2019 (“VIF2019”) in July 2019.
75 The VIF2019 forecasts were based, in part, on the results of the 2016 Census which
illustrated that Victoria’s population had been growing much faster than previously
thought (including when the VIF2016 forecasts were prepared in July 2016).
76 A comparison of the VIF2016 and VIF2019 forecasts for the Surf Coast LGA is
provided in Table 1.
Table 1—Surf Coast
Measure VIF2016 VIF2019 Change
population and
dwelling forecast Population
comparisons, 2016
2016 29,386 30,465 +1,079
and 2031
2031 39,577 42,789 +3,212
Source: VIF2016;
Ave. change (%pa) 2.0% 2.3% +0.3%
VIF2019
Ave. change (No.pa) 679 822 +143
Total change 10,191 12,324 +2,133
Dwellings
2016 18,474 18,203 -271
2031 24,737 25,612 +875
Ave. change (%pa) 2.0% 2.3% +0.3%
Ave. change (No.pa) 418 494 +66
Total change 6,263 7,409 +1,146
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2125
77 A comparison of the VIF2016 and VIF2019 forecasts for the Torquay SA2 is provided
in Table 2.
Table 2—Torquay
Measure VIF2016 VIF2019 Change
SA2 population and
dwelling forecast Population
comparisons, 2016
2016 19,100 19,353 +253
and 2031
2031 29,061 30,269 +1,208
Source: VIF2016;
Ave. change (%pa) 2.8% 3.0% +0.2%
VIF2019
Ave. change (No.pa) 664 728 +64
Total change 9,961 10,916 +955
Dwellings
2016 9,307 9,123 -184
2031 13,979 14,964 +985
Ave. change (%pa) 2.8% 3.4% +0.6%
Ave. change (No.pa) 311 389 +78
Total change 4,672 5,841 +1,169
78 Table 1 and Table 2 neatly encapsulate the heightened population and dwelling
growth expectations for Surf Coast, with Torquay’s role even more important as its
share of future dwelling growth within the municipality is expected to increase from
74% (VIF2016) to 78% (VIF2019).
79 I note that the Spatial Economics Report was prepared prior to the release of
VIF2019 and was based, in part, upon VIF2016 forecasts. Again, I therefore caution
against reliance on the Spatial Economics Report data (this time on the demand
side).
80 Indeed, page 46 of the Spatial Economics Report includes the following statement
(with the events foreshadowed subsequently occurring):
VIF2016 is currently being updated based on the results of the 2016
Census and updated State and national estimated resident population.
There is no doubt that, based on the 2016 census outcomes, the State
Government population and dwelling projections will be revised
upwards.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2126
81 The VIF 2019 data provides an extra five years of forecasts (i.e. to 2036) compared to
what was provided within VIF2016 and I have included the 2036 forecasts within
Table 3.
Table 3—Surf Coast
Measure Surf Coast Torquay SA2
and Torquay SA2
population and Population
dwelling forecasts,
2016 29,386 19,353
2016, 2031 & 2036
2031 39,577 30,269
Source: VIF2019
2036 45,438 32,499
Ave. change 2016-36 (%pa) 2.2% 2.6%
Ave. change 2016-36 (No.pa) 803 657
Total change 2016-36 16,052 13,146
Dwellings
2016 18,474 9,123
2031 24,737 14,964
2036 27,352 16,295
Ave. change 2016-36 (%pa) 2.0% 2.9%
Ave. change 2016-36 (No.pa) 444 359
Total change 2016-36 8,878 7,172
82 The Settlement Background Paper makes the following observation at page 93:
… the slowing supply is in line with Victoria in Future 2019 (DELWP
2019d) projections that show the population of Torquay–Jan Juc will
grow steadily to 30,300 people by 2031 and reach 32,500 by 2036.
83 Of course, as supply of zoned land is exhausted within Torquay, it is to be expected
that population and dwelling growth will slow and the VIF2019 forecasts anticipate
this, with average dwelling growth of 389 per annum from 2016-2031 decreasing to
an average of 266 per annum from 2031-2036.
84 As I set out later in this section of my statement, Torquay’s greenfield residential
land stocks are being exhausted faster than contemplated by FIF2019 and the
challenge for Surf Coast Council and the G21 Region is to ensure that adequate land
is set aside for residential growth.
City of Greater Geelong Settlement Strategy, August 2020
85 The City of Greater Geelong adopted its updated Settlement Strategy on 25 August
2020. The document was prepared in conjunction with Spatial Economics and
informed by a number of policy documents, including the G21 Plan.
86 The Greater Geelong Settlement Strategy was considered as part of Amendment
C395 to the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme and I prepared an expert evidence
statement on behalf of an Ocean Grove landowner for the Panel considering the
Amendment.
87 Many of the issues of relevance at Torquay arising from the Surf Coast DAL will also
be examined at Ocean Grove when the Bellarine DAL’s Draft SPP is released.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2127
88 These will include settlement boundaries and housing substitutability (an issue I will
turn to shortly).
89 A key tenet of the Greater Geelong Settlement Strategy is the demonstration that
the City has sufficient land to cater for expected population growth for at least the
next 15 years (as per Clause 11.02-1 of the State Planning Policy Framework).
90 However, the following statement at page 50 of the Settlement Strategy indicated
the problems that could arise for the City of Greater Geelong should appropriate
housing options not be available within Torquay – Jan Juc (with my emphasis
added):
Key settlements outside the Greater Geelong municipality, but in the
broader G21 region, are functionally part of the Geelong region’s housing
market. Alternatives that supplement the diversity of the region’s housing
market include:
• Torquay and Jan Juc, which offer a coastal lifestyle in the Surf
Coast Shire and
• Bannockburn which offers affordable, semi-rural lifestyle, the in
Golden Plains Shire.
Over recent years, Torquay/Jan Juc has seen housing growth of 3.6
percent a year. Bannockburn has had average annual growth of 6.3
percent.
If, for any reason, there are development bottlenecks in these towns, this
would add pressure to Geelong’s housing market – particularly for rural
and coastal properties.
91 I cannot find evidence within the Draft SPP that an assessment of Surf Coast’s 15-
year residential land supply is provided and secured.
92 Rather, it is left to the Settlement Background Paper to attempt to deal with the
issue and the following rather unsatisfactory statement at page 26 encapsulates the
Paper’s conclusion:
This analysis of residential capacity focuses on Torquay–Jan Juc and
shows that there is currently enough capacity to meet the projected
demand for the declared area. However, if there are policy changes,
other locations within Surf Coast Shire will need to be explored for
accommodating future residential growth to meet the projected demand
at a municipal level.
93 The Draft SPP actually enforces a “policy change” as both Option 1 and Option 2 for
the Spring Creek FRA will result in a reduction in dwellings delivered in this area
compared to the 1,940 assumed within the Settlement Background Paper.
94 As I have already discussed, there is little prospect that new housing can be
delivered in the volumes required elsewhere within Surf Coast and, hence,
additional pressure will indeed shortly be applied to Geelong’s coastal housing
markets as contemplated within the Greater Geelong Settlement Strategy.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2128
4.3 Demand Population trends
95 Annual historic population and corresponding growth rates for the Torquay SA2 are
set out within in Table 4.
Table 4—Torquay
As at June Population Change
SA2 population,
2001-2019 (as at (No.) (No.) (%)
June)
2001 10,225 - -
Source: ABS 2002 10,625 400 3.9%
2003 10,853 228 2.1%
2004 11,058 205 1.9%
2005 11,292 234 2.1%
2006 11,758 466 4.1%
2007 12,472 714 6.1%
2008 13,221 749 6.0%
2009 14,011 790 6.0%
2010 14,743 732 5.2%
2011 15,497 754 5.1%
2012 16,337 840 5.4%
2013 17,006 669 4.1%
2014 17,641 635 3.7%
2015 18,365 724 4.1%
2016 19,131 766 4.2%
2017 19,892 761 4.0%
2018 20,669 777 3.9%
2019 21,766 1,097 5.3%
Ave. 2001-2016 - 594 4.3%
Ave. 2016-2019 - 878 4.4%
96 The long-term average population growth rate for Torquay has been 4.4% per
annum.
97 Despite the town’s population base doubling between 2001 and 2019, the average
percentage growth rate has been maintained, reflecting increases in absolute
population growth rates in more recent times (and particularly in 2019).
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2129
98 Within Table 5, I compare population growth rates in Torquay to other relevant areas
in Victoria from 2001 to 2019.
Table 5—Average
Area 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-19
annual population
growth, selected Torquay SA2 2.8% 5.7% 4.3% 4.4%
areas, 2001 to 2019
(as at June) Balance Surf Coast 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Greater Geelong 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.6%
Source: ABS
Regional Victoria 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3%
Melbourne 1.4% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5%
Victoria 1.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%
99 Throughout this time, Torquay has consistently exhibited higher growth rates than
all of the other areas, despite a strong pick up in growth within Greater Geelong and
Melbourne since 2011.
Residential development trends
100 Within Table 6 I have first reviewed historical Census data to ascertain the long-term
occupancy trends in dwellings within the Torquay–Jan Juc Urban Centre and
Locality (“UCL”). The UCL represents the urban extent of the Torquay SA2.
Table 6—Occupied
Occupied
and unoccupied
dwellings as Average
dwellings, Torquay- prop. of total annual growth
Jan Juc UCL, 1986- Occupied Unoccupied (“Occupancy in total
2016 dwellings dwellings Total dwellings rate”) dwellings
Year (no.) (no.) (no.) (%) (no.)
Source: Towns in
Time 2016, Land Use 1986 1,477 1,048 2,525 59% -
and Population
1991 1,972 1,174 3,146 63% 124
Research
(Department of 1996 2,578 1,327 3,905 66% 152
Environment, Land,
Water & Planning) 2001 3,175 1,398 4,573 69% 134
2006 3,717 1,847 5,564 67% 198
2011 4,874 2,189 7,063 69% 300
2016 6,054 2,401 8,455 72% 278
101 From 1986 to 2006, an average of 152 dwellings per year was constructed but this
increased significantly to 289 per year between 2006 and 2016.
102 At the same time, there were consistent increases in occupancy rates, from 59% in
1986 to 72% in 2016, emphasising the arrival of a more permanent population,
replacing seasonal populations in earlier periods.
103 Nevertheless, one of the challenges for Torquay area will always be the requirement
to provide housing for both permanent and non-permanent residents.
104 VIF2019 recognises this and models future dwelling demand based, in part, on future
occupancy rates only gradually increasing over time.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2130
105 Within Table 7 and Figure 8, I show residential building approvals by type of dwelling
for the Torquay SA2 on an annual basis since 2012.
Table 7—
Semi- Houses
Residential building
detached/ proportion of
approvals by type, Houses Townhouses Apartments Total total
Torquay SA2, Y/E Y/E June (no.) (no.) (no.) (no.) (%)
June 2012-2020
2012 230 14 0 244 94.3%
Source: ABS
2013 202 10 4 216 93.5%
2014 241 4 0 245 98.4%
2015 296 9 0 305 97.0%
2016 312 22 6 340 91.8%
2017 308 19 0 327 94.2%
2018 414 37 4 455 91.0%
2019 470 99 11 580 81.0%
2020 384 52 0 436 88.1%
Total 2,857 266 25 3,148 90.8%
Figure 8—
Residential building 600
approvals by type, Apartments
Torquay SA2, Y/E
June 2012-2020 500 Semi-detached/
Townhouses
Residential approvals (Y/E Jun)
Source: ABS Houses
400
300
200
100
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
106 It is apparent that building approvals have increased, on average, significantly in the
past three years and, with the delay between approval and occupation, population
growth is likely to be even stronger in 2020 than it was in 2019.
107 The decline in approvals in 2019/20 from the peak in 2018/19 can be attributed to the
onset of COVID-19.
108 However, I have considered monthly approvals data to December 2020 and note an
upswing in approvals in November and December following the relaxation of
restrictions throughout Victoria.
109 This helps inform my view that, if not for COVID-19, building approvals in Torquay
would have continued at an accelerated pace.
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2131
110 Government initiatives such as stamp duty relief (for residential properties with a
dutiable value of up to $1 million) and HomeBuilder grants – as well as a continuation
of residents leaving Melbourne for lifestyle reasons – will also contribute to a strong
upsurge in this market.
111 Table 7 and Figure 8 also provide useful data to understand the composition of new
housing within Torquay.
112 Despite a small increase in higher density developments such as townhouses,
detached houses remain the dominant and preferable development form in Torquay
(reflecting the coastal, lifestyle setting and also the preferences of families with
children who constitute most of the demand for new housing in this market).
113 Indeed, detached houses represented 88.1% of approvals in 2019/20, only slightly
below the long-term average of 90.8%.
114 The geographical distribution of recent residential building approvals within Surf
Coast are shown in Figure 9.
Figure 9—Residential building approvals by SA1, Surf Coast Shire, Y/E June 2017-2020
Source: ABS; MapInfo
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
2132
115 During this time, more than 75% of all approvals have been within the Torquay SA2,
with the balance scattered throughout the remainder of the Shire.
116 Within Torquay, almost two-thirds of approvals were in Torquay North where the
last remaining larger residential estates still contain vacant land.
Conclusion
117 Based upon the data provided within this section and the VIF2019 forecasts, I am of
the opinion that greenfield residential land within Torquay will, in an unconstrained
market, be consumed at an average rate of 340 lots per year until 2036 (with
approximately 50 dwellings per year continuing to be provided within non greenfield
locations).
118 I note that my assessed rate of greenfield lot consumption appears to be consistent
with that adopted by DWELP in generating the four development scenarios
represented by Figures 2-5 on pages 95-96 of the Settlement Background Paper.
4.4 Supply Zoned land
119 The Settlement Background Paper summarises residential land supplies within
Torquay on page 24 and page 25, with this summary based upon Appendix 2.
120 It is appears that the Torquay residential land supply analysis contained within the
Settlement Background Paper is based upon two sources:
• The Spatial Economics Report (September 2018, but largely based on population
and approvals data to June 2017, VIF2016 forecasts and cadastral data which
appears to be as at June 2018); and
• DELWP’s own work, with the author and timing unknown.
121 The following summary of greenfield land supply appears on page 24 of the
Settlement Background Paper:
Duffields Road and Zeally investments report - Surf Coast DAL - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 4 Mar Deep End Services
21You can also read
