Do Strikes and Work-to-Rule Campaigns Change Elementary School Assessment Results?
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Do Strikes and Work-to-Rule
Do Strikes and Work-to-Rule Campaigns Change Elementary School Assessment Results? 479
Campaigns Change Elementary
https://www.utpjournals.press/doi/pdf/10.3138/cpp.37.4.479 - Friday, May 15, 2020 12:44:35 PM - Legislative Library of British Columbia IP Address:207.194.253.26
School Assessment Results?
David R. Johnson
School of Business and Economics
Wilfrid Laurier University
Waterloo, Ontario
Dans cet article, à partir de données portant sur l’évaluation des élèves ontariens de la 3e année à la 6e année,
j’analyse le lien qu’il est possible d’établir entre le rendement scolaire et les grèves et grèves du zèle des
enseignants. De 1998-1999 à 2003-2004, environ 5 % des écoles ontariennes ont été touchées par une grève
(et un lock-out), et environ 10 % par une grève du zèle (c’est-à-dire le refus des enseignants de participer
à certaines activités scolaires auxquelles ils collaborent normalement). Les résultats indiquent qu’il y a eu
en 3e année et en 6e année dans les écoles de milieux défavorisés une baisse marquée des résultats scolaires
pendant les grèves, ainsi qu’une baisse, mais moins importante, pendant les grèves du zèle. Les baisses
observées pendant les grèves du zèle varient selon les écoles : les plus élevées concernent les élèves de 3e
année des écoles de milieux défavorisés, et les moins élevées les élèves de 6e année des écoles de milieux
favorisés.
Mots clés : grève des enseignants, rendement scolaire, grève du zèle
This paper uses data from the Grade 3 and 6 assessments conducted in Ontario schools to examine the as-
sociation between student achievement and both strikes and work-to-rule campaigns by teachers. Between
1998/99 and 2003/04 approximately 5 percent of schools in Ontario were exposed to strikes (including
one lockout) and over 10 percent of schools experienced a work-to-rule campaign (the withdrawal of
many school activities normally carried out by teachers). This study finds large reductions in academic
achievement associated with strikes at disadvantaged schools in both Grade 3 and Grade 6, and substantial
reductions in results associated with work-to-rule campaigns. The reductions associated with work-to-rule
campaigns vary across schools with the largest reductions at disadvantaged schools in Grade 3 and at ad-
vantaged schools in Grade 6.
Keywords: strikes by teachers, student achievement, work-to-rule campaigns by teachers
Introduction unionized. Yet the legal ability of teachers and
boards to strike varies. In Canada, teachers in
T eachers in Ontario, as in all Canadian
jurisdictions, in many American jurisdictions,
and throughout much of the developed world are
Manitoba and Prince Edward Island do not have
the right to strike while in Nova Scotia and Quebec
the right to strike is restricted (Wright 2004). In
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
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the United States, only ten states allow teachers to this paper finds that work-to-rule campaigns have
strike (Wright 2004). This paper compares student strong, negative effects on student achievement.
assessment results at elementary schools that have
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experienced strikes or work-to-rule campaigns The analysis in this paper also shows that, in all
(collectively called labour relations disruptions) to cases, the length of the labour relations disruption
assessment results at the same elementary schools matters: the longer the disruption, the larger the
in other years without a disruption. A work-to-rule predicted reduction in achievement. For strikes, the
campaign is a common strategy where teachers come lost instructional days create a learning gap between
to school but do not work beyond the limited duties schools that experienced stoppages and schools
specified in their contracts. Typical duties withdrawn that did not experience stoppages. The quantity
include running extracurricular activities, meeting of instructional time matters. In a similar way, a
with parents, or attending administrative meetings. work-to-rule campaign may affect the quantity of
In the period of analysis there were 15 strikes instructional time if the normal instructional time
(including one lockout treated here as a strike) and goes beyond the contract instructional time. A work-
20 work-to-rule campaigns in Ontario. The key to-rule may also affect the quality of instructional
question: Does academic performance, as measured time. Assessment results are lower after a work-to-
by student assessment results, fall in the year of rule campaign in both Grade 3 and Grade 6, which
these labour relations disruptions? suggests that teachers cannot teach at least some
groups of students as effectively within the contract
The average observed change in the assessment rules enforced by a work-to-rule campaign.
results associated with disruptions across all schools
is negative but often small and not statistically signifi- There is a large American literature, reviewed in
cant. The largest reductions in results are observed in Carini (2008), attempting to understand if there is a
the mathematics assessment. There is a large reduction relationship between school outcomes and unioniza-
in reading and mathematics results associated with tion at the level of state, district, or student. A small
strikes in both Grade 3 and Grade 6 for schools drawn portion of the American literature on the effect of
from the lowest parts of the distribution of parental unionization includes various measurements asking
education. Strikes reduce learning outcomes by the if strikes are associated with lower academic out-
largest amount at precisely the schools where children comes. In an early review of the literature relating
arrive with other disadvantages. strikes to achievement, Zirkel (1992) concluded that
there was little evidence that teacher strikes affected
A second important result is that work-to-rule attitude, attendance, or achievement of public school
campaigns reduce learning outcomes on average. students. Since the Zirkel survey, two American
The reductions are larger at disadvantaged schools in studies and one Canadian study have been conducted
Grade 3 and at advantaged schools in Grade 6. This that are similar to the study reported here.
is a controversial result. Work-to-rule campaigns,
which are a common feature of labour relations dis- Thornicroft (1994) uses achievement results on
ruptions in Ontario, might be considered to have no a battery of standardized tests administered only in
detrimental effects on student outcomes. Patterson, the 1989/90 academic year in 612 Ohio districts.
a union official, is quoted with respect to a work- Between 1984/85 and 1991/92, there were 61 strikes
to-rule: “That is the action we see as appropriate, as averaging ten days in duration in these districts. A
it brings pressure on the board without having any comparison of average achievement results between
impact on the classrooms or the students” (Kingston strike and no-strike districts found few significant
Whig-Standard, 10 October 2002). The evidence in differences. If there were any differences, districts
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
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with strikes had better results. A regression model Baker (2011) studies strikes in the Ontario school
of achievement that included a variety of variables system over the same period and with much of the
related to strikes found no significant relationships same data that I use. Baker’s primary strategy is to
https://www.utpjournals.press/doi/pdf/10.3138/cpp.37.4.479 - Friday, May 15, 2020 12:44:35 PM - Legislative Library of British Columbia IP Address:207.194.253.26
between achievement and the strike measures. The compare, across schools, the growth in test scores
strike measures included an indicator for any strike between a Grade 3 and a Grade 6 “cohort” at schools
in the entire six-year period, the number of strike with and without strikes. The cohorts are not exact
days over the six-year period, a strike in the assess- because, as in my study, the data are at the school
ment year, number of strike days in the assessment level and students enter and leave schools. Baker
year, a strike indicator for each year in the data, and presents a large number of estimates that examine
the number of days on strike for each year in the the sensitivity of his results to different choices
data. There were a series of control variables in the for the group of schools without strikes, which
regressions. The most important variables measure function as the control group. Baker finds that the
social and economic differences across districts in largest effects are found in a reduction of Grade 6
income although there are some measures of school mathematics test score growth with a long strike,
spending and teacher quality. About half the varia- defined as a strike of ten days or more that occurred
tion in achievement across districts is associated in Grade 5 or Grade 6 of the Grade 6 class assessed.
with variation in the control variables. Thornicroft I also find the largest effects of current-year strikes
(1994) concludes strikes do not affect achievement. on mathematics results in Grade 6. Baker did not
find that a long-ago strike in Grade 2 or 3 had any
In a more recent study, Zwerling (2008) compares significant impact on the growth of test scores be-
outcomes on a series of annual standardized tests tween Grade 3 and Grade 6 for the cohort exposed
in many grades across districts in Pennsylvania to that strike.
with and without strikes. There are three measures
that describe students: the percentage who receive The paper proceeds as follows. The next section
a free or reduced-price lunch, the percentage who outlines the labour relations system in place in On-
are black or Hispanic, and the percentage who have tario between 1998/99 and 2003/04 and presents the
individual education plans (both disabled and gift- data on strikes and work-to-rule activity. The third
ed). Other other control variables describe district section presents the data on achievement, some
characteristics relating to teachers and expenditures. preliminary data describing outcomes, and the social
There are two measures of strike activity: a simple and economic characteristics of schools with and
indicator variable if there is a strike in the district in without disruptions. The fourth section describes
the test year or in the previous year, and a variable the methodology used to analyze the relationships
measuring the number of days of the strike. Neither between disruptions and outcomes more carefully.
of the two strike variables has a clear association The fifth section presents the results, followed by
with achievement outcomes. The two strike vari- conclusions.
ables are also interacted with the three variables
describing students. Coefficients on the interaction
terms are not statistically significant. Zwerling Education Labour Relations Disruptions
(2008) concludes there is no evidence that strikes in O ntario 1998/99 to 2003/04
affect achievement. In his survey of the interaction
of education and collective bargaining, Carini In the period studied, 75 individual school boards
(2008) suggests that the effects of strikes should negotiated separate two-year contracts with locals
be investigated more carefully at a lower level of of the provincewide union of teachers. The boards
disaggregation, ideally with student-level data. received roughly equal funding each year per student
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
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from the provincial government (with small adjust- alternate years of the data there are no disruptions
ments for items like second-language instruction because contracts run for two years. For example,
and rural transportation). Boards had no access in the first year of the data, contracts ran from 1
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to a local tax base to pay increased wages. Thus a September 1998 to 31 August 2000 at all boards.
“successful” (from the union point of view) labour The two-year cycle is repeated over the remaining
relations disruption could not increase total financial four years of the data (Rose 2002).
resources at a board.
In spite of these constraints, elementary teach- Labour Relations Disruptions and
ers at 14 boards went on strike. In addition, there the A cademic P erformance of
was one lockout over the six years studied (which I Elementary Students in Ontario:
include in the analysis and label as a strike).1 Table Preliminaries
1 presents the basic facts on the 15 strikes and 20
work-to-rule campaigns in 1998/99, 2000/01, and The Measurement of Academic Performance
2002/03. Two boards experienced both a strike and The provincewide data on student learning out-
a work-to-rule campaign. In the first year of the data comes, by school for all schools with 15 or more
almost 500 schools (about 15 percent) had a strike. students in the relevant grade, are drawn from the
There were fewer strikes in 2000/01 and even fewer Grade 3 and Grade 6 Education Quality Account-
in 2002/03. Strikes ranged in length from 1 day to 16 ability Office (EQAO) assessments.2 Assessments
days of school. Work-to-rule campaigns were much were first written in 1996/97, and results for most
longer in duration. In 2002/03, almost 40 percent of schools in the province are available beginning in
schools experienced a work-to-rule campaign. In the 1998/99. The usual measure of school success is
Table 1
The Incidence of Labour Relations Disruptions in Ontario Elementary Schools: 1998–2003
Academic Year and Type Number Number Numbers of Instructional Percentage Average Standard Deviation
of Labour Relations of Boards of Schools Days Affected by Disruptions of Schools Length of of Disruption
Disturbance with This Affected (shortest to longest) in Province Disruption over Length over All
Disruption Affected All Schools Schools
1998/99 Strikes 8 484 1, 1, 5, 8, 9, 11, 11, 15 14.9 1.1 3.2
2000/01 Strikes 4 205 3, 10, 14, 16 6.8 0.8 3.3
2000/01 Work-to-rule 6 828 6, 18, 22, 23, 25, 27 23.5 5.4 10.1
2002/03 Strikes 3 247 5, 11, 12 8.5 0.7 2.8
2002/03 Work-to-rule 14 1,316 7, 9, 11, 13, 18, 19, 21, 24, 38.4 9.7 14.6
28, 29, 29, 30, 31, 41
Notes: There were no labour relations disruptions in academic years 1999/00, 2001/02, and 2003/04. Contracts were two years in length,
and negotiations and thus disturbances took place every other academic year. There were no work-to-rule campaigns associated with
negotiations during the 1998/99 academic year.
Source: Author’s compilation from data provided by the Ontario Education Relations Commission.
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the percentage of all students who obtain a Level 3 Table 3 (and later Table 4) make it clear that
(meets expectations) or a Level 4 (exceeds expecta- while it is important to take into account the varia-
tions) result. For convenience this is called the pass tion by year and type of test in trying to explain the
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rate. There is a reading assessment, a writing assess- association between labour relations disruptions
ment, and a mathematics assessment. At a school and achievement, it is not enough. The top panel
with both Grade 3 and Grade 6 classes in all six of Table 3 considers groups of schools with and
years of the study period, there are 36 assessment without either type of labour relations disruption
results, 18 in each grade. in the year of those assessments, the middle panel
compares schools with and without strikes, and the
Table 2 presents distributional statistics for pass lower panel compares schools with and without
rates, by year and by type of assessment, in Grade work-to-rule campaigns. The table presents uncon-
3 and Grade 6. The key aspect is that the various ditional differences in average pass rates for groups
measures of distributional spread (more specific- of schools on those assessments in a specific year.
ally, the standard deviation and interquartile range)
remain very similar within a test across years while This table reinforces ideas already presented.
the average pass rate is clearly different in different Large differences within a year in average pass
years on the same assessment. Because the assess- rates on different assessments are clear. Large dif-
ments are designed to be comparable across years, ferences between average pass rates on the same
four (at least) non-mutually exclusive interpretations assessment in different years are clear. The most
of the changes over time in the average pass rate on interesting aspect of Table 3 is that if we simply
a specific assessment are consistent with the data in compared the pass rate within a year and assess-
Table 2. Ontario elementary students could be get- ment type at schools with and without different
ting better results over time with this gain attributed labour relations disruptions using a test of equality
to improved teaching and/or a better curriculum. of the mean pass rate for the two groups, we might
Ontario teachers could be learning, over time, to conclude disruptions raise results significantly (as
deliver the curriculum that is being assessed rather they do in 27 cases), lower results significantly (as
than some other curriculum previously taught. The they do in 15 cases), or leave results unchanged (as
third possibility is that the assessments could vary they do in 6 cases). How can this be? The answer
in difficulty across years. Finally, it is possible that, is straightforward. Labour relations disruptions af-
even if the assessments are equal in difficulty, the fect all schools within a board. Boards and schools
same answers on an assessment of equal difficulty within boards have different social and economic
are graded differently. Either of the last two reasons characteristics. These differences must be taken
could explain the declines in average provincial into account to properly measure the association of
results between pairs of adjacent years on the same labour relations disruptions and pass rates.
assessment. I find such large changes between adja-
cent years in the quality of either all the teachers or The Social and Economic Background of
all the students in the cohorts assessed implausible Elementary Students
and conclude it seems very likely that the assessment Table 4 presents summary statistics of the social and
instruments, in spite of all the effort put into compar- economic characteristics of students at all schools
ability, are not always comparable. For the purposes in Ontario, and then uses as groups the schools that
of this paper, Table 2 shows that an accurate estimate did and not experience labour relations disruptions
of the effects of labour relations breakdowns must at any point in the six years studied. A full explana-
take into account the variation in average assessment tion of the methods used to measure these social
results by year and by type of assessment. and economic characteristics is found in Johnson
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
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Table 2
Descriptive Statistics for Pass Rates on EQAO Assessments 1998/99 to 2002/03
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Year Mean Standard Deviation Median 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range
Grade 3 reading assessment
1998/99 43.7 17.0 43 32 56 24
1999/00 48.0 18.0 48 35 61 26
2000/01 47.7 18.0 48 36 60 24
2001/02 49.3 19.0 49 36 62 26
2002/03 49.5 17.8 50 37 62 25
2003/04 53.3 18.0 54 41 66 25
Grade 3 writing assessment
1998/99 50.8 16.2 52 40 62 22
1999/00 50.7 16.9 51 39 62 23
2000/01 50.2 17.3 51 39 62 23
2001/02 54.0 16.7 54 43 66 23
2002/03 54.6 15.6 55 44 66 22
2003/04 57.4 15.7 58 47 69 22
Grade 3 mathematics assessment
1998/99 54.2 20.2 55 40 69 29
1999/00 55.8 21.3 56 40 72 32
2000/01 58.4 21.4 60 44 75 31
2001/02 56.8 21.4 58 42 72 30
2002/03 55.8 21.0 56 41 72 31
2003/04 63.3 19.6 65 50 78 28
Grade 6 reading assessment
1998/99 48.5 17.1 48 37 60 23
1999/00 50.6 17.9 50 38 63 25
2000/01 53.7 17.7 54 42 66 24
2001/02 54.3 17.6 55 43 67 24
2002/03 55.4 16.9 56 44 67 23
2003/04 57.7 17.0 58 46 70 24
Grade 6 writing assessment
1998/99 47.7 16.5 48 37 59 22
1999/00 48.0 17.2 48 36 59 23
2000/01 51.8 16.9 52 41 63 22
2001/02 52.5 16.4 53 42 64 22
2002/03 53.1 15.8 53 43 65 22
2003/04 53.9 16.1 54 43 65 22
Grade 6 mathematics assessment
1998/99 46.4 19.6 46 32 59 22
1999/00 51.5 19.9 52 37 59 23
2000/01 53.9 20.0 54 40 63 22
2001/02 53.2 20.1 54 40 64 22
2002/03 53.7 19.9 54 40 65 22
2003-04 57.9 19.8 59 44 65 22
Notes: EQAO = Education Quality Accountability Office.
Source: Author’s calculations from EQAO results.
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Table 3
Comparing Average Pass Rates (percentage of students at Level 3 or Level 4) at Schools with and without Labour Relations
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Disruptions within a Year of an Assessment
Test Year Grade 3 Grade 6
No Disruption Disruption Diff.a No Disruption Disruption Diff.a
A labour relations disruption of any type
Reading 1998 44.3 (.33) 47.3 (.72) 3.3*** 49.0 (.33) 50.5 (.76) 1.5**
Writing 1998 51.5 (.31) 54.4 (.70) 3.3*** 48.1 (.32) 49.7 (.77) 1.6**
Math 1998 55.2 (.38) 58.8 (.83) 3.5*** 46.8 (.39) 48.3 (.90) 1.5*
Reading 2000 48.0 (.36) 49.0 (.65) 1.0* 53.7 (.37) 56.7 (.67) 3.0***
Writing 2000 50.4 (.35) 52.8 (.62) 2.4*** 51.9 (.35) 54.2 (.65) 2.3***
Math 2000 58.1 (.44) 62.4 (.72) 4.3*** 53.4 (.41) 57.7 (.79) 4.3***
Reading 2002 50.4 (.41) 48.7 (.54) –1.7*** 57.0 (.40) 53.5 (.53) –3.5***
Writing 2002 54.8 (.36) 54.9 (.46) 0.1 54.0 (.37) 52.0 (.48) –2.0***
Math 2002 56.2 (.49) 56.0 (.61) –0.2 55.0 (.47) 51.9 (.61) –3.1**
A strike or lockout
Reading 1998 44.2 (.33) 47.3 (.73) 3.1*** 49.0 (.33) 50.5 (.76) 1.5**
Writing 1998 51.5 (.31) 54.3 (.71) 2.8*** 48.1 (.32) 49.7 (.77) 1.6**
Math 1998 55.2 (.38) 58.7 (.83) 3.5*** 46.8 (.39) 48.3 (.90) 1.5**
Reading 2000 48.6 (.32) 43.6 (1.4) –5.0*** 54.5 (.33) 49.7 (1.7) –4.8***
Writing 2000 51.3 (.31) 45.7 (1.5) –5.4*** 52.7 (.31) 47.7 (1.8) –5.0***
Math 2000 59.6 (.38) 54.5 (1.9) –5.1*** 54.9 (.37) 45.2 (2.0) –9.7***
Reading 2002 49.7 (.34) 50.5 (1.2) 0.8 55.6 (.33) 57.2 (1.1) 1.6*
Writing 2002 54.7 (.30) 58.0 (1.0) 3.2*** 53.1 (.33) 56.7 (1.0) 3.6***
Math 2002 56.1 (.40) 55.9 (1.4) –0.6 53.9 (.39) 51.9 (1.4) –2.0*
A work-to-rule campaign
Reading 2000 48.0 (.36) 49.4 (.69) 1.4** 53.6 (.36) 57.2 (.70) 3.6***
Writing 2000 50.4 (.34) 53.1 (.67) 2.7*** 51.9 (.34) 54.7 (.69) 2.8***
Math 2000 58.0 (.43) 63.2 (.76) 5.2*** 53.2 (.41) 58.8 (.81) 5.6***
Reading 2002 50.4 (.41) 48.6 (.54) –1.8*** 57.1 (.39) 53.4 (.53) –3.3***
Writing 2002 55.0 (.36) 54.8 (.47) –0.2 54.3 (.37) 51.9 (.49) –2.4***
Math 2002 56.3 (.49) 55.9 (.62) –0.4 55.1 (.47) 51.7 (.61) –3.4***
Notes: These schools have results for all 18 Grade 3 or Grade 6 assessments over the six-year period studied and belong to school boards
with at least 15 schools. This is the sample used in the remaining tables.
aDiff. is the difference between mean pass rates at disrupted schools and non-disrupted schools. A positive Diff. indicates mean pass
rates are higher at disrupted schools and a negative Diff indicates mean pass rates are lower at disrupted schools.
*Indicates that the null hypothesis of equal assessment results across schools with and without the labour market disruption would be
rejected at a 10 percent level of significance (one sided); **at 5 percent; and ***at 1 percent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
(2005). To summarize, the Ministry of Education characteristics of a 20 percent sample of households
provided three years (from the six years studied) in those areas. Using both the 1996 and 2001 cen-
of postal codes of all students at all elementary suses, a weighted average of the characteristics of
schools in Ontario. Postal codes place students in adult persons associated with these schools (living
very small geographic areas with known average in the same geographic areas as the children who
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
CPPDec2011Inside.indb 485 29/11/11 4:07 PM486 David R. Johnson
attended the school) is constructed. Social variables addresses of the students writing the assessment in
include, for example, the percentage of lone parents each year. There is only one meaningful set of social
or the percentage of adults with some university and economic characteristics for each school over
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education. There are also economic variables, for the entire six-year period.3 There are no data for the
example, average income and the unemployment individual groups of students writing the assessment
rate of the school’s population. It is quite import- at each school in each year. Thus the school-level
ant that these data are from the postal codes of the data are used to represent, with error, the character-
actual students who attend a school in order to istics of students writing the assessments. As long
represent the characteristics of the adults from the as the measurement error is unrelated to the strike
communities in which the students live. However, and work-to-rule occurrences, this does not raise
the data are from the addresses of all students at- problems in analyzing the effects of labour relations
tending the school in three different years, not the disturbances.
Table 4
Summary Information on Social and Economic Characteristics of Schools in Ontario and Labour Relations Disruptions
Variable Mean for Schools with Labour Schools without Labour Difference in Means:
All Schools Relations Disruptions Relations Disruptions Labour Disruption Minus
(SD) Mean (SD) Mean (SD) No Labour Disruptions
Single parent (percent) 22.2 23.2 20.8 2.4***
(8.5) (8.9) (8.0)
English or French as 91.2 88.7 94.2 –5.5***
home language (percent) (9.6) (11.2) (6.0)
Aboriginal status (percent) 1.3 1.2 1.4 –.2***
(1.8) (1.7) (1.9)
Recent immigrants – 4.6 5.9 3.0 2.9***
in Canada < 5 years (5.7) (6.7) (3.8)
(percent)
Percentage of dwellings 64.7 61.8 68.4 –6.6***
that are detached (23.3) (25.1) (20.2)
Average household 63,519 64,227 62,659 1708***
income (2000 dollars) (18,886) (21,238) (15,529)
Unemployment rate of 6.4 6.9 5.9 1.0***
persons with children (3.4) (3.7) (3.0)
(percent)
Adults with some 22.7 23.8 21.5 2.3***
university education (11.3) (11.9) (10.4)
(percent)
Number of observations 3,098 1,698 1,400 NA
Note: *Indicates that the null hypothesis of equal assessment results across schools with and without the labour relations disruption
would be rejected at a 10 percent level of significance (one sided); **at 5 percent; and ***at 1 percent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
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The left-hand column of Table 4 presents the aver- would be estimated. Pi,S,t is the pass rate at school
age characteristics of all schools in the province used S on assessment i in year t. There is, for each ob-
in the analysis. Put simply, schools are very different servation at a school in a year, a vector of dummy
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in their social and economic composition. This illus- variables Dt where the value of Dt is unity in year t
trates why comparing the unconditional difference and zero otherwise. LS,t is a variable measuring if
in average pass rates will generate a biased measure there is a labour relations disruption and εi,S,t is a
of the impact of labour relations disruptions. The random error term. The coefficient vector δt captures
middle columns present average social and economic the variation in pass rates across schools between
characteristics for schools with and without labour years on the same assessment i, the variation ob-
relations disruptions at any time in the six years served in Tables 2 and 3. The term in equation (1),
of data. Schools without labour disruptions have βi XG,S,t , would capture the association of the social
fewer lone parents, more French or English speakers, and economic characteristics X of the grade-cohort
more Aboriginals, fewer immigrants, more detached with pass rates on assessments of type i. The char-
homes, lower household incomes, lower unemploy- acteristics of the grade-cohort writing the different
ment rates, and a less educated adult population as assessments are the same in each year at each school
measured by the percentage of adults in the school but the relationship between characteristic and result
community with some university education. The could vary by type of assessment. The coefficient
most important source of these differences is that the vector βi would inform us that students who come
two very large boards covering Metropolitan Toronto from families with a higher level of parental edu-
are the only two entirely urban boards in the province cation are predicted to perform better on a specific
and both Toronto boards experienced labour relations assessment i, say the reading assessment.
disruptions. When school pass rates, averaged over
three years, are predicted for a cross-section using The term in the equation denoted μi,S is a measure
the set of social and economic variables in Table 4, of the average quality of the school over the six
about 40 percent of the variation in school pass rates years of assessments. If at one school μi,S is posi-
is associated with variation in the social and economic tive and at another school μi,S is negative, then at
background of students. When the differences between the two schools with the same social and economic
schools in social and economic background are ignored characteristics, results are different. Johnson (2005)
in the analysis of disruptions, as they are in Table 3, labels the school with the higher value of μ i,S a
then the analysis of the association between disrup- higher-quality school. These school quality effects
tions and student achievement is incorrect. A better are not presented in this paper.4
methodology is needed.
Finally, the association of the labour relations
disruption at the school in a year on assessment of
Labour Relations Disruptions and type i is measured by the coefficient λi on a measure
the A cademic P erformance of of labour relations disruption at that school in that
Elementary Students in Ontario: year LS,t. The value of this coefficient varies by type
Methodology of assessment; it may be that strikes do not reduce
writing results but reduce mathematics results.
If we had data on the social and economic character-
istics of the members of each grade (3 or 6) cohort As already stated, the school social and eco-
writing an assessment in each year at each school, nomic characteristics, now denoted XS, vary only
the panel regression equation by school, that is, the actual data have no time
dimension. The data do not describe the specific
Pi,S,t = α + δt Dt + βi XG,S,t + μi,S + λi LS,t + εi,S,t (1) characteristics of the students writing the assessment
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
CPPDec2011Inside.indb 487 29/11/11 4:07 PM488 David R. Johnson
at the school in a year, but only the average social This specification tests for a non-linear association
and economic characteristics of all students at- between assessment results and the length of the
tending a school over the six-year period. Thus in disruption.
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the panel setting of equation (1), it is not possible to
estimate equation (1) directly. An indirect approach The fourth measure of disruptions is designed
is taken to obtain the estimates of λi, the coefficients to ask if the association between disruptions and
of interest. achievement varies by social and economic status
of the school. Here equation (2) is augmented as
The econometric model estimated that represents
equation (1) is Pi,S,t = α + δt Dt + γi Si + λi1 LS,t
+ λi2 LS,t ((EDS–mean(ED))/sd(ED))
Pi,S,t = α + δt Dt + γi Si + λi LS,t + εi,S,t. (2) + εi,S,t. (3)
Equation (2) is estimated separately for each assess- The effect of a disruption now varies with the
ment in Grade 3 and Grade 6 with standard errors position of the school in the social and economic
clustered at the school level. This is a regression gradient. To be very specific, the social and eco-
with school fixed effects (Si) and year fixed effects nomic status of the school is measured by the
(Dt). The coefficients on the school fixed effects standardized logarithm of the percentage of adults
capture both the variation across schools in the so- in the school community who have some university
cial and economic background of students and the education, denoted ((EDS–mean(ED))/sd(ED)). This
school quality effect; the two cannot be identified variable is approximately normally distributed. For a
separately with the available data. The fixed effects, school at the mean value of this variable (zero), the as-
both year and school, are allowed to vary by type of sociation of disruption and performance on assessment
assessment i. A school could, for example, have an of type i is measured by λi1. For a school two standard
exceptional Grade 6 mathematics teacher. When L S,t deviations above (below), the association of disruption
is non-zero, there is a labour relations disruption in and performance takes the value λi1+ 2 λi2 (λi1– 2 λi2).
that year at that school. Equation (2) estimates the The predictions and standard errors are reported at the
effects of labour relations disruptions by compar- mean and one and two standard deviations above and
ing results at disrupted schools with results at those below the mean.
same schools in years without a disruption. There are
various measures of the labour relations disruptions.
Labour Relations Disruptions and
The first measure of a labour relations disruption the A cademic P erformance of
is a simple indicator variable that takes a value of Elementary Students in Ontario:
one where there is a disruption in that year. The Results
second measure enters the number of days of the
disruption in that year as the value of LS,t. The co- Table 5 presents various measures of the association
efficient on this variable represents the effects on of labour relations disruptions and outcomes using
the pass rate per day of the strike or the work-to- the framework of equation (2). The first row presents
rule campaign. If this coefficient were negative, the coefficients for each type of assessment—reading,
product of the coefficient and a longer strike would writing, and mathematics—on an indicator variable
be larger in absolute value than for a shorter strike. that a school experienced either type of disruption, a
A second model is estimated where the number of strike or a work-to-rule, in that year. The coefficients
days of the disruption as well as the square of the are all negative. Only the coefficient measuring
number of days of the disruption enters the equation. the association of Grade 6 mathematics results and
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CPPDec2011Inside.indb 489
Table 5
The Association of Labour Relations Disruptions and Pass Rates in the Year of the Disruption by Grade, Type of Assessment, and Measure of Disruption
Variable Measuring the Labour Relations Grade 3 Grade 6
Disruption
Reading Writing Mathematics Reading Writing Mathematics
All labour relations disruptions
Indicator variable for disrupted school –0.52 (.35) 0.09 (.33) –0.40 (.41) –.31 (.34) –.27 (.34) –.87 (.41)**
Strikes or lockouts
Indicator variable for strike –.09 (.55) –.19 (.55) –.04 (.64) .10 (.49) .25 (.52) –1.0 (.65)
Number of days of strike –.034 (.048) –.029 (.31) –.030 (.05) .013 (.04) .047 (.04) –.076 (.05)
Number of days of strike .211 (.22) .010 (.20) –.136 (.26) .015 (.19) –.055 (.20) –.107 (.26)
Number of days of strike squared –.018 (.01) –.002 (.01) .007 (.02) –.0001 (.01) .007 (.01) .002 (.01)
Work-to-rule campaigns
Indicator variable for work-to-rule –.89 (.42)** –.13 (.38) –.95 (.48)** –.26 (.40) –.21 (.39) –.90 (.47)**
Number of days of work-to-rule –.041 (.01)*** .011 (.01) –.034 (.01)** –.027 (.01)* –.011 (.01) –.051 (.01)***
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques,
Number of days of work-to-rule –.024 (.05) –.093 (.04)** –.064 (.057) .061 (.04) –.073 (.04) .095 (.05)*
Number of days of work-to-rule squared –.0004 (.001) .003 (.001)*** .0009 (.001) –.002 (.001)* .001 (.001) –.004 (.001)***
Note: This table presents the coefficients on labour relations disruption variables using equation (2). School and year fixed effects are included in the estimating equation. The values in parenthe-
ses are standard errors.
Do Strikes and Work-to-Rule Campaigns Change Elementary School Assessment Results?
*Indicates that the null hypothesis of a zero coefficient is rejected at 10 percent; **at 5 percent; and ***at 1 percent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
489
29/11/11 4:07 PM490 David R. Johnson
labour market disturbances is significantly differ- the reduction in the pass rate with an additional day
ent from zero. It is quite a large coefficient, and it of work-to-rule are quite precisely estimated for
means that a school experiencing a labour relations the reading and mathematics assessments. In those
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disruption, either strike or work-to-rule, has a pass assessments, an additional day of work-to-rule re-
rate 0.87 percentage points lower in the year of duces assessment results by about 0.04 percentage
the disruption relative to other years at the same points per day. Thus a work-to-rule campaign that
school. The other coefficients are not statistically is ten days in length, a fairly ordinary work-to-rule
significant. campaign (see Table 1), is predicted to reduce pass
rates by 0.4 percentage points. This is considerable
The next row presents coefficients on an indica- evidence that work-to-rule campaigns are associated
tor variable related to the presence of a strike at with lower assessment results, even for the aggre-
the school in that year. None of the coefficients are gate of schools. The last row of the table measures
statistically significant. Is this a surprising result? work-to-rule disruptions by the number of days and
Recall from Table 1 that several of the strikes are the number of days squared. Some of the coefficients
very short and it might be difficult to observe any on the quadratic terms are significant and others are
impact of all strikes when strikes of such different not. There may be more complex interactions of the
length are treated as equivalent in impact. length of work-to-rule campaigns and assessment
results to be further considered.
The next rows of results address the issue of
strike length in two ways. The first strike measure is The most interesting results of this study are
the number of days of the strike and the coefficient found in Table 6, which presents the results of the
is the effect on the pass rate per day of a strike. specification found in equation (3). Consider the co-
Once again none of the coefficients are statistic- efficient -0.191 in the upper left corner under Grade
ally significant, but four of the six coefficients are 3 reading. This coefficient means that a school with
negative. The coefficient on Grade 6 mathematics the level of the normalized logarithm of parental
is the largest coefficient. The next row presents a education at two standard deviations below the mean
pair of coefficients for each assessment, where in will experience a reduction of the pass rate of 0.191
equation (2) there are now two variables. The upper percentage points per day of strike. For a strike of
coefficient is on the number of days of the strike ten days in length, this is 1.91 percent of the class
and the lower coefficient is on the squared number predicted to fail who would otherwise not fail. The
of days of the strike. Again there are no significant average percentage of adults in a school commun-
coefficients. Non-linear effects in strike length do ity with some university education is 22 percent in
not appear to be important. Table 4. Schools two standard deviations below the
mean of the logarithm of the education variable have
The lower portion of Table 5 repeats the analy- about 7 percent of adults in the school community
sis for work-to-rule campaigns, the more common with some university education, a school two stan-
way for schools to experience labour relations dard deviations above the mean of the logarithmic
disruptions. There is some evidence that work- variable in Table 6 has about 50 percent of the adult
to-rule campaigns reduce assessment results. All population with some university education. The as-
coefficients on the indicator variables are negative. sociation of strike days and reduction in results falls
Three of the coefficients on the simple indicator dramatically as schools move up the socioeconomic
variable are statistically significant, including both gradient. The negative effects of strike days in Grade
coefficients on the mathematics results. When the 3 are strongest on the mathematics assessments,
analysis is repeated using the number of days of then the reading assessments. The relationship of
work-to-rule campaigns, the coefficients measuring strike days to writing results is not statistically
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
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Table 6
The Change in the Predicted Pass Rate in the Year of the Disruption by Grade and Type of Assessment at Different Values of the Percentage of Adults Associated with the School
with Some University Education
CPPDec2011Inside.indb 491
Standard Deviations (approximate Grade 3 Grade 6
percentage with some university education)
Reading Writing Mathematics Reading Writing Mathematics
Effects per strike day evaluated at different points in distribution of logarithm of education
–2 (7%) –.191 (.105)* –.070 (.096) –.285 (.124)** –.097 (.109) –.091 (.120) –.410 ( .147)***
–1 (12%) –.116 (.071)* –.051 (.064) –.164 (.083)** –.047 (.071) –.029 (.078) –.261 (.097)***
0 (20%) –.041 (.049) –.031 (.044) –.043 (.056) .001 (.044) .032 (.047) –.112 (.060)*
+1 (32%) .032 (.056) –.011 (.055) .077 (.063) .051 (.051) .094 (.051)* .037 (.067)
+2 (52%) .107 (.086) –.008 (.085) .198 (.097)** .101 (.083) .156 (.086)* .186 (.110)*
Effects per work–to–rule day evaluated at different points in distribution of logarithm of education
–2 (7%) –.072 (.036)** –.038 (.032) –.097 (.041)** .013 (.038) –.003 (.038) –.033 (.043)
–1 (12%) –.059 (.024)** –.017 (.022) –.071 (.029)** –.003 (.026) –.006 (.025) –.040 (.030)
0 (20%) –.046 (.016)*** .002 (.014) –.045 (.019)** –.020 (.017) –.010 (.015) –.048 (.019)*
+1 (32%) –.033 (.016)** .023 (.014)* –.019 (.017) –.037 (.017)** –.013 (.017) –.056 (.017)***
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques,
+2 (52%) –.020 (.024) .043 (.021)** .006 (.025) –.054 (.027)** –.016 (.028) –.064 (.026)**
Note: The values in parentheses are standard errors. Education level at the school is measured by the normalized logarithm of the percentage of households with some university education for
students attending that school. School and year fixed effects are included in the estimating equation.
Do Strikes and Work-to-Rule Campaigns Change Elementary School Assessment Results?
*Indicates that the null hypothesis of a zero coefficient is rejected at 10 percent; **at 5 percent; and ***at 1 percent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
491
29/11/11 4:07 PM492 David R. Johnson
significant. In Grade 6 the relationship of strike campaign. The reasons for this reversal of pattern
days to mathematics pass rates is the only significant in Grade 6 remain to be understood.
coefficient. But the effect is very strong. A school
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two standard deviations below the mean of the
normalized education variable is predicted to have Conclusions
a 4.1 percentage point reduction in the mathemat-
ics pass rate after a ten-day strike. Coefficients two The paper measures the differences in assessment
standard deviations below the mean, one standard results between schools in Ontario that have experi-
deviation below the mean, and at the mean are all enced labour relations disruptions (strikes, lockouts,
statistically significant and large in absolute value. and work-to-rule campaigns) and schools that have
Strikes reduce Grade 6 mathematics results for the not experienced these disruptions.
majority of Grade 6 students.
The results show that both strikes and work-
The lower part of Table 6 uses equation (3) to to-rule campaigns are associated with reduced
investigate the association of assessment results assessment results in Grade 3 reading and math-
and work-to-rule campaigns across the social and ematics. The predicted reduction in assessment
economic gradient. There are three noteworthy results is larger per day of strike than per day of
results. Where both the coefficient on the number work-to-rule. In Grade 3, the largest reductions in
results are found at schools where children arrive
of days of strikes and the coefficient on the num-
with other disadvantages as measured by the level
ber of days of work-to-rule are negative, then the
of parental education.
coefficient on the strike days is larger in absolute
value. Strikes do have a larger impact than work-to-
The picture in Grade 6 is more complicated.
rule campaigns. There is evidence in Grade 3 that
Additional strike days at disadvantaged schools
work-to-rule campaigns are associated with lower
are associated with reduced results in mathematics
reading and lower mathematics results, and these
in Grade 6; the effect is very large and extends to
effects are quite large at schools where parental
the midpoint of the social and economic gradient of
education is low. Even at a school with the mean
schools. Additional days of a work-to-rule campaign
value of the gradient variable, an additional day
in Grade 6 are associated with lower assessment
of a work-to-rule campaign is associated with an
results in reading and mathematics at the schools
estimated 0.046 percentage point reduction in the
where parental education is highest, not lowest.
Grade 3 reading pass rate and a 0.045 percentage
These effects are smaller.
point reduction in the Grade 3 mathematics pass
rate per day of work-to-rule. The coefficients are
There is further work to be done. Using student-
quite precisely estimated, perhaps because there
level data would increase our understanding of what
were numerous work-to-rule campaigns of widely students are most hurt by strikes and work-to-rule
varying lengths. The third observation from Table 6 campaigns. Student-level data would help us to
is that the association of work-to-rule campaigns and understand whether the reductions in academic
results for Grade 6 is counterintuitive. There is no performance are temporary or permanent if stu-
association between results and the number of days dents were tracked over time. In the period studied,
of a work-to-rule campaign in Grade 6 at the schools there are no individual student data. Finally, more
in the lower part of the education gradient. However, research needs to be done to understand the mech-
at schools one standard deviation and two standard anism through which strikes are associated with
deviations above the mean of the education gradient, the larger reduction in Grade 3 and 6 pass rates at
assessment results fall when there is a work-to-rule disadvantaged schools while in work-to-rule cam-
Canadian Public Policy – Analyse de politiques, vol . xxxvii , no . 4 2011
CPPDec2011Inside.indb 492 29/11/11 4:07 PMDo Strikes and Work-to-Rule Campaigns Change Elementary School Assessment Results? 493
4 The
paigns results fall more at disadvantaged schools in residual εS in Pi,S = α + βi XS + εS , a modified
Grade 3 and more at advantaged schools in Grade 6. version of equation (1), provides an estimate of school
quality. The equation is estimated over a cross-section of
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schools with test results averaged over a number of years.
A positive residual is interpreted as a better quality school,
Notes
that is, a school where for similar social and economic
Useful comments on this paper were received at the Target characteristics, assessment results are better.
Conference at the University of British Columbia, from 5 The “school quality” terminology implicitly assumes
the C.D. Howe Institute, from my colleagues at Laurier
that resources are similar across schools, a reasonable
and from the referees of this journal.
assumption for schools in Ontario where teacher quali-
1 The period of this study followed a decade of con- fications are provincewide and base funding to boards
siderable change in the Ontario education system. Even is also provincewide. Hence the same average resources
before the period studied, there were strikes and work- are available to each student at a board. There is no fur-
to-rule campaigns. In the years from 1992/93 to 1997/98, ther information about resource allocation to individual
there were three stoppages and nine work-to-rule cam- schools in Ontario in this period. There are provincially
paigns at elementary schools as well as seven stoppages imposed rules on the length of the instructional day, the
and 29 work-to-rule campaigns at secondary schools. number of instructional days and, for part of the period,
Neither stoppages nor strikes were new to the Ontario on class sizes. In the studies of Ohio and Pennsylvania
education system. Campoleti, Hebdon, and Hyatt (2005) cited above, districts did vary in overall resources avail-
report some evidence on the incidence of teacher work able in a meaningful way.
stoppages relative to other unions in Ontario. The effect
of labour relations disruptions on Ontario students cannot
be measured prior to 1998/99 because there are no data References
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student data. from Ontario.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review
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A very small amount of demographic data is collected directly Thornicroft, K.W. 1994. “Teachers Strikes and Student
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(2005) shows that this set of variables is not very useful in gaining System for Teacher Contracts in British
equations like (1), and the data based on postal codes and Columbia.” Commission to Review Teacher Collective
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Zirkel, P. 1992. “The Academic Effects of Teacher Zwerling, H.L. 2008. “Pennsylvania Teachers’ Strikes
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