DELVE Briefing: State of the Democratic Primary and Joe Biden's Key Vulnerabilities - Delve DC
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
MEMO
DELVE Briefing: State of the
Democratic Primary and Joe
Biden’s Key Vulnerabilities
March 10, 2020
With Super Tuesday behind us and the historically large field of candidates winnowed down to a
two-man race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, the race for the Democratic nomination for
president is entering its endgame. Analyses of how Biden saved the Democratic Party from an
irreversible “leftward lurch” have flooded editorial boards and punditry. Politico founder John
Harris has even declared Biden the winner of the general election, and Biden’s Super Tuesday
showing has rekindled Democrats’ hopes of regaining a majority in the Senate and protecting their
majority in the House. All of this exuberance seems quite familiar.
So how accurate is the Democrats’ sense of relief? Is Joe Biden really the moderate candidate he
and the Democratic Party establishment advertise him to be? If Biden wins the nomination, will
his “electability” argument survive Trump’s inevitable attacks on everything from Biden’s long
career in Washington to his past tone deaf remarks on race to his penchant for touching other
people in uncomfortable ways to the many scandals of the Biden family? Indeed, Biden’s own
largess – accrued while ostensibly a public servant – not to mention the power-adjacent
professional success of his family members dilutes Biden’s self-appointed claim to be “Middle
Class Joe.” Similar to the turnout challenge of 2016, how will Sanders’ supporters react to their
candidate’s second denial of the Democratic Party nomination for president?
All of these questions, and their implications for down ballot races, are worth considering, which
is why the analyst team at Delve has put together the following briefing to help public affairs
professionals navigate these challenges and opportunities.
EVEN WITH BIDEN AS THE NOMINEE, SANDERS’ POLICIES HAVE
ALREADY WON
The Primary Fight Is Not Between Moderates And Progressives – It Is Between The
Establishment And The Crusaders, All Of Whom Are Adopting Far-Left Policy Positions.
All of the candidates have endorsed doubling the federal minimum wage to $15/hour (Tom Steyer
wanted to go even higher, to $22/hour). All of the candidates support further expansion and
intrusion of the federal government into health care, whether it is outright Medicare for All or the
introduction of a government-run “public option” that will quickly crowd out private insurance
offerings. All of the candidates want to erase the economic fuel provided by the Trump tax cutsDELVE Briefing: State of the Democratic Primary and Joe Biden’s Key Vulnerabilities
and return to a non-competitive corporate tax rate that sends companies and investment dollars
overseas and keeps them there. A number of the major candidates, including Sanders, Warren,
Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and even Biden – who are supposedly spread across the ideological
spectrum – have even proposed or endorsed a financial transactions tax that will discourage
investment in U.S. public companies at a time when fewer and fewer companies are willing to go
public and provide access to financial opportunity to a broad range of Americans.
Bernie Sanders Is One Of Two Democratic Presidential Candidates To Call For Jailing Fossil
Fuel Company Executives – Joe Biden Is The Other One – And It Highlights How Far Left
Biden Has Come In 2020. “Moderate” candidate Joe Biden has not resisted the leftward direction
of Sanders’ Democratic Party. In addition to joining Sanders in endorsing imprisonment for
corporate executives who engage in lawful commerce (and may not even have been at their
respective companies when these alleged climate crimes occurred), Biden also calls for $6 trillion
dollars in federal spending, including $1.7 trillion to move the U.S. to zero net carbon emissions
by 2050. And although Biden does not endorse Medicare for All, his health care plan would spend
$750 billion more on shoring up failing Obamacare over 10 years. To fund his policy plans,
including his climate and health care plans, Biden proposes more than $3.4 trillion in new taxes,
which is more than double what Hillary Clinton proposed in her 2016 presidential campaign.
Although he is supposed to represent his party’s center, Biden’s policy proposals would still make
him “the most progressive Democratic nominee in history.”
BIDEN LETS TRUMP RUN THE 2016 ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT
PLAYBOOK ALL OVER AGAIN
Prepare For #ButBurisma To Enter The Democratic Lexicon. Since the 2016 campaign, as
President Trump took office and began governing, progressive social media has been filled with
the hashtag “#ButHerEmails” anytime Trump did something the collective left and media
establishment deemed incompetent or abhorrent. If Biden is the nominee and Trump wins
reelection, prepare to see “#ButBurisma” join the progressive social media barrage for the next
four years. In 2016, Trump was able to successfully leverage Hillary Clinton’s private email server
and her and Bill Clinton’s entanglement of their private interests and foundation with her public
service as Secretary of State to convince many Americans it was time to disrupt the way business
is done in Washington. With Biden as the nominee, expect a repeat performance from Trump.
The Reality Is, Biden Is No “Middle Class Joe,” Having Become A Millionaire While Serving
In Government And Cashing In Even More Since He Left Office, And His Family Has
Leveraged His Government Positions To Cash In Along The Way.
• Biden’s Brother James Biden Leveraged His Relationship With The Vice President
To Win Billion-Dollar Contracts With The U.S. And Foreign Governments. In 2010,
despite having little or no experience in construction, James Biden became the vice
president of the large construction management firm HillStone International just as the
company was looking to win a billion-dollar contract to build homes in Iraq. The contract
was all set to generate $1.5 billion in revenue over three years but fell through in part due
to HillStone’s lack of experience in homebuilding. But HillStone continued to get
“significant contract work” in Iraq, including a six-year deal with the U.S. Army Corps of
Page 2DELVE Briefing: State of the Democratic Primary and Joe Biden’s Key Vulnerabilities
Engineers, and was awarded federal contracts for projects abroad, including in
Mozambique. The son of HillStone’s founder explained it helps to have “the brother of the
vice president as a partner” when looking to secure lucrative government contracts.
• Biden’s Son-In-Law Howard Krein’s Nascent Healthcare Consultancy Firm Scored
Meetings In The Oval Office. Howard Krein, Joe Biden’s son-in-law, is the chief medical
officer of StartUp Health, an “investment consultancy” firm. In 2011, the firm “was barely
up and running when” two executives met with President Obama and Vice President Biden
in the Oval Office. StartUp Health’s ability to meet with the most powerful leader in the
world certainly helps market the company’s “high-level contacts.”
• Valerie Biden Profited Off Of Biden’s Campaigns. Valerie Biden, Joe Biden’s sister,
was a senior partner at Joe Slade White & Company, a “political messaging firm.” The
firm worked for various Biden campaigns for over eighteen years and received lucrative
fees in the process, including $2.5 million during the 2008 presidential election.
None Of Biden’s Family Members Pose More Political Liability For His Campaign Than
Hunter Biden.
• Hunter Biden Flew With His Father To China On Air Force Two, Then Landed A
Billion Dollar Investment From A Chinese-Government Controlled Investment Firm.
In 2013 Hunter Biden flew with Vice President Biden on a diplomatic trip to China. 10
days after the China trip, Hunter’s private equity firm Rosemont Seneca created a $1 billion
joint venture, called Bohai Harvest RST (BHR), backed by the state-owned Bank of China,
which meant the son of the sitting U.S. Vice President was now in a business partnership
with the Chinese government, and there was at least the appearance that the Vice President
helped his son close the deal. During the China trip, Hunter introduced Vice President
Biden to Jonathan Li, who became CEO of BHR after the deal was finalized.
• Hunter Biden’s Foreign Business Deals Extend Beyond BHR – And Beyond China.
Despite having no experience in real estate, Hunter Biden was an advisor to Rosemont
Reality, a sister company of Rosemont Seneca. Hunter once again secured a lucrative deal
with a Chinese government-backed firm seemingly because of his last name. In 2015, a
Chinese real estate conglomerate backed by the Chinese government “acquired a
controlling stake in Rosemont Realty.” And part of the deal saw the Chinese firm promise
$3 billion for commercial office property acquisitions in the U.S., “a major windfall for the
company.” Hunter Biden’s questionable business deals were also not limited to China.
Biden was tied to Burnham Financial Group, which brokered several “murky deals”
involving oligarchs in Kazakhstan.
• Hunter Biden Was Awarded A Seat On Burisma’s Board Of Directors Despite
Having No Experience In The Energy Sector, And Burisma Avoided A Corruption
Investigation In Ukraine. Hunter Biden sat on Burisma’s Board of Directors while Joe
Biden was serving as Vice President. In 2015, then-Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
George Kent raised concerns “with a senior official at the [Obama] White House” about
Hunter Biden, who had no previous experience in Ukraine or natural gas, receiving his seat
Page 3DELVE Briefing: State of the Democratic Primary and Joe Biden’s Key Vulnerabilities
on Burisma’s board. Kent testified during the recent House impeachment hearings that he
worried Ukrainian officials would believe Hunter Biden’s position at Burisma made him
“a backchannel” to the Vice President. Kent also expressed his concern to Congress that
Hunter Biden’s involvement with Burisma presented a conflict of interest for the Vice
President, who at the time “was spearheading the Obama administration’s efforts to fight
corruption” in Ukraine.
Indeed, in 2016, Vice President Biden, with the support of G-7 and IMF, pressured the
Ukrainian government to fire Ukraine’s top prosecutor because he was not “aggressive
enough” in fighting bureaucratic corruption. Hunter Biden’s ties to Burisma cast a shadow
on the decision to fire the Ukrainian prosecutor, as the prosecutor had investigated
Burisma’s owner for corruption. Even as his Super Tuesday momentum propels Joe Biden
toward becoming the Democratic nominee, Republicans and President Trump are gearing
up to overwhelm the media with Burisma narratives as November approaches. Just last
week, Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) announced he is preparing to subpoena Andrii
Telizhenko, a former Ukrainian diplomat who worked for Blue Star Strategies, which
represented Burisma in the U.S.
• Hunter Biden Is Engrossed In An On-Going Child Support Case With A Stripper He
Had An Affair With While Dating His Brother’s Widow. It sounds salacious and out of
bounds for most campaigns, but don’t expect the Trump campaign to shy away from this
ongoing scandal. In November 2019, a paternity test revealed Hunter Biden fathered a child
with Lunden Alexis Roberts, who was a dancer at a Washington, DC strip club but now
resides in Arkansas. The test came after Biden previously denied a relationship with
Roberts, whom he allegedly had an affair with while dating his brother’s widow, Hallie
Biden.
In January 2020, Biden temporarily agreed to retroactively pay child support, but an
Arkansas Circuit Court lacked “sufficient information” to determine the correct amount of
permanent child support Biden should be required to pay. The case remains ongoing
because Biden has repeatedly failed to hand over “relevant financial documents.” On
March 6, 2020, Roberts’ lawyers filed their third motion of contempt against Biden, after
he again failed to present financial documents to determine his assets even as he rents a
multimillion dollar Hollywood Hills mansion for $12,000 a month.
A different kind of candidate might shy away from attacking their opponent’s family, but Donald
Trump is unlikely to hold back on the Biden brood even as more details on the above issues and
additional examples of questionable enrichment surface between now and November.
IF IT’S 2016 ALL OVER AGAIN, WILL THE “BERNIE BROS” ONCE
AGAIN HURT DEMOCRATS’ CHANCES?
In some ways, the 2020 Democratic primary campaign had the potential for a similar realignment
in the Democratic voting base that Republicans saw with Donald Trump in 2016. And as with
2016, this realignment had the potential to throw out all of our assumed and conventional wisdom
on who is likely going to vote and for whom they are likely to vote – if Bernie Sanders were to
Page 4DELVE Briefing: State of the Democratic Primary and Joe Biden’s Key Vulnerabilities
become the nominee. Now that such a scenario is less likely, does Sanders’ base get excited and
turn out to vote for Joe Biden or do they stay home and not vote – or maybe even vote for Donald
Trump? In 2016, as many as 12% of Sanders’ supporters voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton. In
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, “Trump's margin of victory over Clinton was smaller
than the number of Sanders voters who” voted for Trump. Sanders’ voters’ dissatisfaction with the
Establishment victory in the primary may once again provide an opportunity for Trump and
Republicans in the general election.
The Democratic Party is counting on Joe Biden’s centrist image to carry the Democrats to
huge electoral wins down the ballot. But as this briefing has shown, a closer examination of
Biden’s policies and record raise significant questions about the Democrats’ case and provide
opportunities for Republicans to exploit.
To delve deeper into how these developments in the presidential primary translate into your
races down the ballot, contact us.
Page 5You can also read
