Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
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Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 This report is a collaborative effort by Pierre-Ignace Bernard, Stephan Binder, Alexander D’Amico, Henri de Combles de Nayves, Kweilin Ellingrud, Philipp Klais, Bernhard Kotanko, and Kurt Strovink, representing views from McKinsey’s Insurance Practice. February 2022
Contents ii Introduction 01 Welcome to a new world 07 State of the industry 21 Strategic imperatives for insurers 27 Where to play: Focusing the portfolio
Creating value, finding focus Welcome to the first edition of McKinsey’s Global create more value for shareholders? Can they Insurance Report, focused on challenges and unlock latent demand and improve the customer opportunities for carriers in the global insurance experience? How can they regain momentum on industry. In this report, we look back at the past the long-running quest to improve productivity? year’s developments and ahead to the ways that Also, what about talent? How can they reimagine the industry is evolving. the employee proposition to attract and retain the brightest and best after the pandemic? Finally, The global pandemic is resurgent with yet another how can insurers, individually and collectively, wave of rising case numbers and pressure on reframe the role and purpose of insurance healthcare systems. Its effects on business are no in society? less significant. Over the past two years, COVID- 19 has accelerated some trends that look certain To address these questions, we believe to reshape the way insurance is underwritten, the leadership teams of insurance carriers need to distributed, and managed. At the same time, some capitalize on nine value levers: of the problems that have challenged the industry 1. Make environmental, social, and governance over the past decade have not gone away, and (ESG) considerations a core feature of the complexity of the macroeconomic environment the business model. has increased. Revenue growth is limited in most regions; intermediaries are capturing more 2. Regain relevance through product innovation value; scale economies are proving elusive; and coverage of new risks. and productivity is quite stagnant. As a result, 3. Enhance and personalize customer economic profit—that is, profit after cost of engagement and experience. capital—in the insurance industry is practically at a standstill. 4. Engage with ecosystems and insurtechs. The industry’s problems are not lost on capital 5. Develop new businesses for the digital age. markets. As public investors mark down 6. Scale impact from data and analytics. companies’ shares, private investors swoop in to acquire closed books, and some insurers 7. Modernize core technology platforms. reconsider their geographical footprints, 8. Address the productivity imperative. the fundamental structure of the industry is coming into question. Insurers now face several 9. Reimagine culture, diversity, and ways of fundamental strategic questions: How can they working to attract and retain talent. ii Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
Addressing these nine imperatives will help and breadth of footprint, a common strategic carriers answer strategic questions about “how to thrust of the past decades for many insurers, play.” But the challenges and recent trends facing yields to a more rigorous search for a company’s the industry will force some insurers also to think true source of competitive advantage. about “where to play,” to rebalance their portfolios To form a strategy that addresses the challenges of businesses, and to review their capital allocation of this period of intense flux, carriers will need to accordingly, in particular through M&A and asset put focus and local scale at center stage. Insurers disposals. At the end of this report, we focus on that can develop a tightly defined business this pressing question: Where should insurers be model and take advantage of the trends and active (in terms of geography, lines of business, currents unleashed by the global pandemic can and position in the value chain) to renew value restart growth, expand performance on multiple creation and themselves? The recent wave of sales dimensions, and renew themselves through value of noncore businesses to buyers with different creation, securing an industry-leading position in business models suggests that a secular change the years to come. may be in the works. We might be witnessing a period when the quest for economies of scale Where should insurers be active to renew value creation and themselves? Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 iii
In coming years, the global insurance industry will be profoundly shaped by some megatrends that have emerged and accelerated since February 2020. © Alexander W Helin/Getty Images
1 Welcome to a new world The past two years may have been the most peculiar recession and recovery in living memory. In 2020, the human tragedy of the COVID- 19 pandemic triggered a global economic downturn that was initially sharper than the Great Depression. As government support programs took shape, the recession rapidly bottomed out, leading to a strong economic recovery in 2021. Global financial markets took a roller-coaster ride as well. The impact on the insurance industry was noticeable: in 2020, premium growth slowed to approximately 1.2 percent (compared with more than 4 percent per year between 2010 and 2020). Profits fell by about 15 percent from 2019. The decline was sharpest in Asia–Pacific (down 36 percent) and was particularly driven by falling profits in life (Exhibits 1 and 2). Preliminary data suggest that premium growth and profits rebounded in 2021, especially in regions where strong vaccine rollouts have made many activities possible again, at least periodically. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 1
Exhibit 1 Premiumgrowth Premium growth rebounded rebounded in after in 2021 2021slowing after slowing in 2020. in 2020. Global insurance gross premiums written, $ billions1 Health P&C Life 4.0% p.a.2 CAGR, % 4.1% p.a. 2 5,987 2016–21 5,421 5,602 5,672 4,932 5,157 2,462 2,389 2,491 2 3,878 2,454 2,258 2,348 1,909 1,604 1,700 1,735 1,834 5 1,459 1,531 1,126 1,214 1,278 1,363 1,440 1,548 1,662 6 843 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Americas 5.5% p.a.2 4.7% p.a.2 2,541 2,761 2,185 2,310 2,442 2,116 633 635 693 4 1,606 580 569 607 489 810 828 905 6 691 726 759 531 845 890 944 999 1,078 1,164 7 586 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Europe, Middle East, and Africa 1.3% p.a.2 2.2% p.a.2 1,395 1,453 1,536 1,533 1,475 1,558 1 1,288 753 376 786 420 823 435 882 450 848 472 780 479 831 498 3 159 189 196 204 212 217 229 4 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Asia–Pacific 3.3% p.a.2 6.3% p.a.2 1,574 1,627 1,656 1,668 1,421 1,519 2 984 975 967 219 892 349 956 371 965 395 980 418 429 431 4 668 98 180 192 214 229 252 269 8 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Note: Figures may not sum, because of rounding. 1 Based on 2020 average fixed exchange rate. 2 Per annum. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools 2 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
Exhibit 2 Industryprofits Industry profits increased increased in 2021 in 2021 after aafter dip ina2020. dip in 2020. Global insurance after-tax profits, $ billions1 Health P&C Life 4.8% p.a.2 CAGR, % 4.8% p.a.2 392 2016–21 360 324 332 311 284 181 134 118 170 4 215 156 139 90 140 134 128 111 105 147 6 86 50 62 71 79 39 34 43 5 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Americas 4.6% p.a.2 3.1% p.a.2 167 152 144 142 113 120 49 20 1 94 39 43 24 41 47 70 71 43 49 41 62 75 9 28 24 32 42 49 60 23 –1 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Europe, Middle East, and Africa 4.3% p.a.2 4.7% p.a.2 121 114 126 78 103 104 92 4 56 65 61 68 41 32 57 40 5 4 40 5 42 6 46 7 49 7 45 7 51 8 10 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Asia–Pacific 6.1% p.a.2 8.1% p.a.2 88 88 104 91 25 68 67 7 43 11 22 53 22 55 21 67 21 18 59 21 41 37 –1 7 5 13 13 15 12 12 19 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Note: Figures may not sum, because of rounding. 1 Based on 2020 average fixed exchange rate. 2 Per annum. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 3
Megatrends in the it. The insurance industry has not escaped post-COVID-19 world this trend, moving from a moderately value- In coming years, the global insurance industry will creating industry to one that destroys value— be profoundly shaped by some megatrends that and the trend is even stronger at the company have emerged and accelerated since February level. Half of insurers globally are not earning 2020. Some are shifts in the macroeconomy; their cost of capital, and half are trading below others are changes in competitive dynamics. book value. The most dramatic may be changes in customer — A potential anchoring of remote-interaction and employer behaviors. While most of these models with customers. The pandemic trends are not completely new, they have saw a “decade in days” acceleration in digital accelerated during the pandemic. In aggregate, uptake—for example, e-commerce sales in they are shaping a new operating environment the United States grew as much in the first for insurers that is hugely disruptive and that half of 2020 as in the previous ten years.2 Tech challenges traditional ways of value creation. players’ platforms strengthened their position These trends, in brief, include the following: as go-to places for customers. The frequency — A decoupling of macroeconomic of interactions and the level of personalization environments among Asia, Europe, and have dramatically changed, and insurers North America, whether through elevated need to ensure they stay relevant and can geopolitical and trade tensions or different craft truly personal, needs-based contextual interest rate trends between regions. (For experiences. This situation will probably example, while the situation remains highly provide tailwinds for insurtechs and other ambiguous, the United States may be exiting digital attackers, raising the risk of disruption the “low for long” rate environment on the back for incumbents. To fend off the threat, insurers of a noticeable though perhaps transitory will need to make additional IT investments spike in inflation). In areas where low rates to digitalize and automate their processes; if continue to prevail, this could put even more the trend persists, they might even need to pressure on life insurers to revamp their significantly modify their distribution models business models accordingly. by repositioning the roles of agencies, brokers, and digital sales channels. — A dichotomy between ‘winners’ and ‘losers,’ reinforced by the crisis. The economic — An increased awareness of sustainability, impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has varied climate change, and issues of diversity, considerably by geography (for example, Asia, equity, and inclusion (DE&I). Corporates Europe, and North America are recovering at and customers alike have become attuned to different speeds); by sector (for example, travel a broader range of environmental and energy and hospitality suffered a deep recession, issues, as well as situations of social, racial, whereas e-commerce companies soared); and generational injustice. This will have and within each sector (resulting in intense an immediate impact on insurers, particularly M&A activity). The past two years have thus in their investment and underwriting portfolios, reinforced the superstar phenomenon1 —the as governments set target dates to reach growing concentration of economic success— net-zero emissions. In addition, natural that we have observed not just among catastrophes abounded in 2020 and 2021, companies but also in cities, economic sectors leaving insurers wondering whether these such as insurance, and other aspects of patterns represent extraordinary activity the global economy. Among the world’s largest or the new normal—in which case, they will companies, economic profit is distributed need to examine whether their pricing models unequally along a “power curve,” with the top adequately account for these events. 10 percent of firms capturing 80 percent of 1 For more, see “What every CEO needs to know about ‘superstar’ companies,” McKinsey Global Institute, April 2, 2019. 2 Arun Arora, Hamza Khan, Sajal Kohli, and Caroline Tufft, “DTC e-commerce: How consumer brands can get it right,” McKinsey, November 30, 2020. 4 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
Several megatrends are shaping a new operating environment for insurers that is hugely disruptive and that challenges traditional ways of value creation. — New challenges to the purpose and about their role in a world increasingly relevance of insurers. Just as the financial dominated by platform companies. crisis of 2007–09 put the spotlight on — A renewed focus on health and well-being the banking industry, the pandemic and and a greater interest in home nesting. its associated insurance issues have put The ongoing health crisis could leave a mark the spotlight on the insurance industry. This on consumers’ psyches for a generation and might prompt insurers to rethink their societal could inspire insurers to actively participate purpose and relevance in the economy as in health and protection ecosystems.6 At a risk-taking industry. There is a perception the same time, consumers are now hooked on that the industry has lost this characteristic in “home nesting,” or leisure activities at home the past ten years by limiting the types of risks (such as cooking, DIY projects, meditation, or clients it covers (as seen in Europe, where and streaming entertainment). According to life insurance has moved sharply toward unit- the McKinsey Global Institute, home nesting linked products). is one of the new behaviors most likely to — A rethinking of mobility. Commercial aviation endureafter the pandemic.7 In response, and other forms of travel fell sharply over insurers might invest in smart-home 8 services the past two years; shared mobility3 and and offerings such as discounts on homes micromobility4 fell, then resumed their steady equipped with devices that can detect fire, rise. Next steps might include a rebalancing flood, or unwanted visitors. among modes of transport; for example, — The dawn of new ways of working. Almost all COVID-19 habits might result in a continued companies are trying to figure out new hybrid preference for individual car use over public working models9; so are many professions that transport but also in less driving overall as have close contact with customers. This will people continue to work from home. This have a huge impact on the insurance industry. might encourage insurers to reexamine Carriers will have to identify the skills required their product offerings on severely affected to manage remote and hybrid teams10 and lines of business (such as life, travel, and review their real estate needs—both to adjust events) and to innovate. For example, they to a changing workforce and to match clients’ might cover emerging mobility needs, make new geographical footprints (for example, new use of telematics, or engage in mobility as people move to midsize cities, suburbs, ecosystems 5—being thoughtful and realistic and exurbs). 3 Lennart Andersson, Andreas Gläfke, Timo Möller, and Tobias Schneiderbauer, “Why shared mobility is poised to make a comeback after the crisis,” McKinsey, July 15, 2020. 4 Kersten Heineke, Benedikt Kloss, and Darius Scurtu, “The future of micromobility: Ridership and revenue after a crisis,” McKinsey, July 16, 2020. 5 Insurance insights that matter, “A view from the Pacific Insurance Conference: How to create a successful insurance ecosystem,” blog entry by Bernhard Kotanko, McKinsey, January 8, 2020. 6 “Digital health ecosystems: A payer perspective,” McKinsey, August 2, 2019. 7 For more, see “The consumer demand recovery and lasting effects of COVID-19,” McKinsey Global Institute, March 17, 2021. 8 “Digital ecosystems for insurers: Opportunities through the Internet of Things,” McKinsey, February 4, 2019. 9 Aaron De Smet, Bonnie Dowling, Mihir Mysore, and Angelika Reich, “It’s time for leaders to get real about hybrid,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 9, 2021. 10 Insurance insights that matter, “Why insurers should embrace remote work,” blog post by Julie Goran and Tom Welchman, McKinsey, April 21, 2021. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 5
Insurance barely earns its cost of capital, making investors skeptical. © Suzana Topita/Getty Images
2 State of the industry Old challenges still loom Even before 2020, the insurance industry faced challenges. Now, those issues have taken on even greater urgency: — Headwinds on revenue growth. Three structural factors are challenging industry growth (Exhibits 3 and 4): persistent low interest rates, which pressure spread-based businesses such as life insurance; pricing pressures driven by fee transparency, digital attackers, and lower-cost options—pressures that in some markets are aggravated by price comparison websites; and organic demand that is growing only slowly in mature markets. The latter is particularly worrying, because growth in developed economies is coming mostly from price increases rather than from volume or new risks covered, highlighting a risk that the industry might lose its relevance over time. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 7
Exhibit 3 In life, In life,revenue revenue growth growth in much in much of theof the isworld world is subdued. subdued. Global revenues by life insurance product and region, 2021E Gross direct domestic premiums written (GDDPW), $ billions1 Difference between premiums 2021 GDDPW Growth rates 3 ppt³ and GDP growth,2 ppt3 Individual Individual Individual term life endowments annuities Unit-linked Group life Total 40 118 140 109 224 630 North America 0.5 –2.9 3.7 –5.7 0.9 –0.7 26 238 72 175 240 749 Western Europe –0.3 –2.3 –2.9 2.7 –2.1 –1.2 9 212 210 34 20 484 Emerging Asia –6.9 –9.9 16.2 0.8 –5.9 –1.4 95 231 45 47 66 483 Developed Asia –1.2 –3.5 –9.6 –3.5 –2.7 –3.7 7 2 4 39 11 62 Latin America 0.3 1.9 –13.0 0.9 –1.5 –0.8 3 18 3 15 21 59 Africa and Middle East –1.6 –1.6 –0.6 –0.8 –1.3 –1.2 2 5 1 11 4 22 Eastern Europe –1.8 –2.9 –2.8 0.5 –4.6 –1.5 181 824 473 428 584 2491 Total –3.0 –5.6 3.5 –2.1 –2.9 –2.7 Note: Figures may not sum, because of rounding. 1 Based on average fixed exchange rate. 2 Growth in nominal premiums and GDP, 2016–21. 3 Percentage points. Source: McKinsey Global Institute; McKinsey Global Insurance Pools Exhibit 4 In nonlife, North America has been the highest-growth region compared to In GDPnonlife, North years. in recent America has been the highest-growth region compared to GDP in recent years. Global revenues by nonlife insurance product and region, 2021E Gross direct domestic premiums written (GDDPW), $ billions1 Difference between premiums 2021 GDDPW Growth rates 3 ppt³ and GDP growth,2 ppt3 Fire and Other Motor property Liability Accident P&C Health Total North America 339 245 214 14 43 1,147 2,002 0.9 2.6 1.0 –0.9 1.9 2.6 2.1 Western Europe 151 109 35 50 58 204 608 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 132 15 16 20 44 134 361 Emerging Asia 7.6 –5.1 –0.4 13.7 1.7 4.9 1.2 Developed Asia 85 35 17 43 25 135 339 0.2 2.9 3.2 2.8 –3.2 1.8 1.3 21 12 3 7 8 17 67 Latin America –2.7 2.5 3.7 3.1 4.6 1.5 0.8 Africa and Middle East 27 9 3 3 9 21 72 –1.1 1.0 2.0 –0.1 4.2 2.0 0.8 Eastern Europe 22 9 3 5 3 4 47 –2.3 –2.5 –4.2 9.8 –1.7 –3.8 –1.5 Total 777 434 291 142 190 1,662 3,497 –1.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.8 Note: Figures may not sum, because of rounding. 1 Based on average fixed exchange rate. 2 Growth in nominal premiums and GDP, 2016–21. 3 Percentage points. Source: McKinsey Global Institute; McKinsey Global Insurance Pools 8 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
— An ongoing ‘fight for the customer.’ — A value shift toward intermediaries. Over Insurtechs are driving digital innovation and the past five to ten years, brokers have disruption in the industry,11 with investments emerged as the clear winners of the industry, in insurtechs worldwide growing from with both public and private investors $1 billion in 2004 to $7.2 billion in 2019 to recognizing their position of strength in $14.6 billion in 2021. More than 40 percent the insurance value chain (Exhibit 6). Total of insurtechs are focused on the marketing shareholder returns are much higher for and distribution segments of the insurance brokers than for other industry segments, and value chain (Exhibit 5), enabling them to private-equity firms are investing.12 In 2019, solve customer pain points through a digitally for example, CVC Capital Partners invested in enhanced client experience that could pose April, and GTCR invested in AssuredPartners. a competitive threat to incumbents. And while PE-backed brokerage deals completed in some of these players have seen their share the United States accounted for roughly price tumble since their IPOs, we believe that three-quarters of all insurance transactions a distinctive digital customer experience—from from 2016 to 2019. Because insurers do not attackers or incumbents—will be a prerequisite control their distribution channels as tightly as for industry-beating growth. And beyond other financial sectors (though it depends on distribution, superior technology and healthy the region and line of business, as illustrated in margins in insurance service businesses will Exhibit 7), they might run an even greater risk challenge the traditional approach of many of becoming pure balance-sheet providers, insurers to own the whole value chain—they while intermediaries keep an asset-light client will be forced to form partnerships or make relationship model. The shift toward digital is outsize investments to keep up. perhaps the last chance for insurers to regain the upper hand in this “fight for the customer.” Exhibit 5 Insurtechs Insurtechs areare concentrated concentrated in marketing in marketing and distribution. and distribution. Insurtechs by product and business activity, % of database total1 10% Products P&C: Motor P&C: Other2 Health Life Product development 2 5 2 2 Marketing and distribution 8 21 7 7 Pricing and underwriting 3 6 2 2 Value chain Policy management 2 5 2 2 Claims 3 6 2 1 Other3 1 4 2 2 Note: Overlaps exist because some insurtechs provide solutions for multiple P&C subproducts and operate across multiple value chain components. 1 Insurtech database includes ~2,000 profiles as of 2020. 2 Including accident, fire and property, liability, and other P&C insurance. 3 Includes IT, HR, finance, and other support functions. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools; McKinsey insurtech database 11 Tanguy Catlin, Simon Kaesler, Alex Kimura, and Pradip Patiath, “Global perspectives on insurtechs,” McKinsey, September 30, 2021. 12 Ramnath Balasubramanian, Grier Tumas Dienstag, Katka Smolarova, and Ruxandra Tentis, “The insurance trends private-equity investors should understand in 2021,” McKinsey, August 20, 2021. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 9
Brokers Exhibit 6 and North American insurers produced the best returns in the past decade.and North American insurers produced the best returns in the past decade. Brokers Annualized TSR by line of business, % 2010–19 2020–21 Global brokers 21.9 53.4 Reinsurers 14.9 –4.4 P&C 12.7 19.8 Multiline 9.8 14.9 Life and health 9.7 7.0 Annualized TSR by geography, % North America 15.6 25.1 Europe, Middle East, and Africa 8.7 –0.2 Asia–Pacific 4.9 –3.4 Note: The following sectoral indexes have been considered: Refinitiv Global Reinsurance Index, S&P Global 1200 Insurance Brokers TR Index, S&P Global 1200 Life & Health Insurance TR Index, S&P Global 1200 Multiline Insurance TR Index, S&P Global 1200 Property & Casualty Insurance TR Index, STOXX Asia/Pacific 600 Insurance Index, STOXX Europe 600 Insurance Index, STOXX North America 600 Insurance Net Return Index. Source: Bloomberg; Capital IQ; Refinitiv Eikon Exhibit 7 Distribution Distribution channels channels differ differ by geography by geography and lineand line of business. of business. Gross premiums written by Dominant Tied agents and branches Bancassurance distribution distribution channel, 2015–20, % channel Brokers Direct and other Americas Europe, Middle East, and Africa Asia–Pacific Life regional total Delta Life regional total Delta Life regional total Delta 2015–20 2015–20 2015–20 29 27 –2 22 23 1 15 16 1 48 53 5 49 52 3 9 11 2 61 59 –2 36 11 9 –2 27 –9 11 12 1 3 3 0 6 9 3 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 P&C regional total P&C regional total P&C regional total 33 29 –4 29 31 2 58 53 –5 43 46 3 58 59 1 24 27 3 3 1 –2 0 0 0 8 9 1 26 22 –4 9 11 2 10 11 1 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools 10 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
— Elusive economies of scale. Many segments an opportunity for a value-creating wave of of the insurance industry have been seeking local consolidation in the industry. scale in recent years. In North America, for — Limited productivity improvement. Though example, increased scale was a primary many insurers have undertaken cost savings goal for 60 percent of recent acquisitions.13 programs, the aggregate results have not The results have been meager: globally, scale been fruitful. Industry-wide, productivity does not seem to be producing higher ROE improvements have been limited.14 Exhibit 11 (Exhibit 8). It turns out that trying to achieve offers an illustration: between 2014 and 2019, scale on a global level has been a recipe for expense ratios fell for only 45 percent becoming average. of global P&C carriers (with important Importantly, this does not hold true for local or variations across regions). For many, ratios national scale effects; on these levels, scale is did not budge or actually rose. That’s correlated with profitability (Exhibit 9). a disappointing outcome for an industry that has communicated so much on the need for The fragmentation of the industry in several productivity improvements. countries (Exhibit 10), coupled with this scale effect at the local level, could present Exhibit 8 Thereisislittle There little evidence evidence of global of global scale effects. scale effects. Return on equity and assets for listed and nonlisted insurers, 2016–20, n = 630 insurers worldwide Average ROE 2016–20, % 50 R2 = 0.0007 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 Average assets (2016–20) $ millions Source: Capital IQ; Company annual reports; SNL Financial 13 “A better approach to M&A in North American insurance,” McKinsey, March 9, 2021. 14 “The productivity imperative in insurance,” McKinsey, August 14, 2019. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 11
Exhibit 9 Scaleeffects Scale effects cancan occur occur within within local local and and national national markets. markets. Return on equity and assets for life insurers in Italy, 2016–20, n = 24 insurers Average ROE 2016–20, % 25 R2 = 0.150 20 15 10 5 0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Average assets (2016–20) $ millions Return on equity and assets for P&C insurers in China, 2016–20, n = 35 insurers Average ROE 2016–20, % 25 R2 = 0.231 20 15 10 5 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Average assets (2016–20) $ millions Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools 12 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
Exhibit 10 Marketshare Market share is highly is highly fragmented fragmented in several in several countries. countries. Domestic business of all players in markets Largest 2nd largest 3rd largest 4th largest 5th largest Other Life insurance market share of top 5 Top 5 market share, insurers by premiums, 2020, % life, 2020, % Developed Germany 28 8 7 4 4 49 51 markets Canada 22 19 18 12 5 24 76 United Kingdom 17 16 10 10 7 40 60 Japan 16 11 9 7 7 50 50 France1 16 11 9 9 7 49 51 Switzerland 41 11 10 8 6 23 77 Italy 18 17 15 11 5 35 65 United States 7 6 6 6 5 72 29 Emerging Mexico 16 15 14 11 11 34 66 markets India 64 8 6 6 3 13 87 Indonesia 13 13 11 8 6 50 51 China 2 28 25 11 7 7 23 77 Nonlife insurance market share of top 5 Top 5 market share, insurers by premiums, 2020, % nonlife, 2020, % Developed Germany 13 8 7 6 6 60 40 markets Canada 15 9 7 7 7 55 45 United Kingdom 11 9 9 8 6 57 43 Japan 15 15 11 8 6 45 55 France1 17 13 10 9 7 44 56 Switzerland 13 12 10 7 7 50 50 Italy 21 15 12 6 6 41 59 United States 10 5 4 4 4 73 27 Emerging Mexico 14 11 11 6 5 53 47 markets India 14 8 7 7 6 57 43 Indonesia 8 8 7 6 5 67 33 China2 40 25 12 7 5 10 90 Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 1 France life comprises life insurance and capitalization; nonlife comprises P&C excluding accident. 2 Based on 2019 data. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 13
Exhibit 11 ManyP&C Many P&Cinsurers insurers have have struggled struggled to reduce to reduce costs. costs. Distribution of changes in P&C insurance expense ratio 2014–19,¹ % Global, n = 858 Reduced ratio Increased ratio 25% 18% 16% 18% 11% 12% 3 ppt Americas, n = 672 23% 19% 17% 19% 10% 12% 3 ppt Europe, Middle East, and Africa, n = 62 24% 26% 18% 15% 10% 8% 3 ppt Asia–Pacific, n = 124 45% 17% 10% 9% 11% 8% 3 ppt 1 Changes in expense ratios are expressed as percentage point (ppt) difference, 2014–19. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools 14 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
Insurance barely earns its cost of capital, making investors skeptical After decades of stable Together, these elements explain the industry’s limited value creation recently. Exhibit 12 shows returns, insurance is the “power curve” distribution15 of economic profit of every sector in the economy. Not only has now a value-destroying the overall insurance industry destroyed value in the past years, but its positioning has eroded from industry in which half 2005–09 to 2015–19 (with insurance brokers as the exception). the players do not earn Looked at another way, industry average ROEs have remained at or slightly below the cost of their cost of equity. equity over the past years, notably in North America and Western Europe (Exhibit 13). 15 Alex D’Amico, Mei Dong, Kurt Strovink, and Zane Williams, “How to win in insurance: Climbing the power curve,” McKinsey, June 18, 2019. Exhibit 12 Insurance Insurance has hadhad has negative economic negative profit inprofit economic recentin years. recent years. Economic profit earned by an average company in 96 industries,1 $ millions 2005–09 3,000 Insurance Multiline brokers insurance 2,000 Property 1,000 Life and health and casualty insurance insurance Reinsurance 0 –1,000 –2,000 –3,000 2015–19 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Life and health Multiline Property Insurance –1,000 insurance insurance and casualty brokers insurance –2,000 Reinsurance –3,000 1 Based on the 2,689 largest companies globally where sufficient data are available; including financial institutions and private companies; excluding real estate and real estate investment trusts. Source: S&CF Insights; S&P Global; McKinsey Corporate Performance Analytics Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 15
Exhibit 13 Economic Economic profitability profitability has has slumped slumped in several in several regions. regions. Insurers’ ROE by region, 2011–21E, % Average ROE, Average COE,1 2021, % 2017–21, % Eastern Europe Developed Asia North America Western Europe Emerging Asia Africa and Middle East 20 17.6 13.3 17.2 10.3 15 10 10.0 12.4 9.2 11.5 7.3 10.2 5 5.7 13.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 1 Cost of equity. Source: Bloomberg; McKinsey Global Insurance Pools This is not a problem caused by a few which half the players do not earn their cost of underperformers. Rather, it is industry-wide: equity. What can insurers do to beat the odds 54 percent of listed insurers, representing and emerge from the current environment as 52 percent of the global industry’s equity, winners? Our research16 across insurance and had an ROE below their cost of equity over other sectors has found that five bold moves, the past five years (Exhibit 14), raising questions pursued persistently, can propel players up about the long-term economic viability of their the power curve: dynamically reallocate capital business model. among businesses; reinvest a substantial share of capital into organic growth and innovation; Not surprisingly, investors in the public markets pursue thematic and programmatic M&A (but not have taken note. Worldwide, about 50 percent megadeals); enhance underwriting margins; and (depending on region and lines-of-business focus) make game-changing improvements to achieve of listed insurance companies have consistently top-quartile productivity. All of this has to be traded below their book value over the past done in a very different and rapidly changing five years (Exhibit 15). This is clearly a vote of no environment, and starting points vary greatly confidence in the industry and raises questions among geographies and lines of business. about the long-term future of several players as stand-alone entities—particularly in multiline, To acknowledge these differences and capitalize where about 60 percent of players are trading on the tailwinds of change outlined above, we below book value. have identified nine levers that insurers can pull to improve value creation. In summary, after decades of stable returns, insurance is now a value-destroying industry in 16 Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, “Strategy to beat the odds,” McKinsey Quarterly, February 13, 2018. 16 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
Exhibit 14 Morethan More thanhalf halfof of insurers insurers globally globally do notdo not earn earn their their cost cost of equity. of equity. Distribution of average ROE minus average cost of equity (COE), 2017–21, % Listed players, n = 299 54% oflessinsurers earn than COE 46% ofmoreinsurers earn than COE Number of 25% insurers, 23% % 17% 12% 11% 11% 5 ppt Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 1 Percentage points. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance Pools Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 17
Exhibit 15 Morethan More thanhalf halfof of insurers insurers havehave been trading been trading below below book book value. value. Insurers’ price-to-book (P/B) ratio and proportion Insurance P/B Percentage of insurers trading below book value, 2016–21, % trading below book value World (n = 251) 1.5 1.01 1.0 59% 52% 45% 49% 50% 0.5 40% 0.0 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 Americas (n = 88) Europe, Middle East, and Africa (n = 116) 1.5 1.41 1.5 1.05 1.0 1.0 60% 53% 54% 51% 46% 52% 49% 0.5 36% 36% 42% 42% 0.5 43% 0.0 0.0 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 Asia–Pacific (n = 47) Life (n = 66) 1.5 1.5 0.58 0.65 1.0 1.0 62% 68% 62% 70% 60% 53% 56% 56% 61% 56% 40% 45% 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 P&C (n = 132) Multiline (n = 53) 1.42 1.5 1.5 0.72 1.0 1.0 64% 62% 68% 62% 58% 58% 50% 46% 0.5 34% 39% 40% 0.5 30% 0.0 0.0 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 2016 17 18 19 20 2021 Source: Bloomberg; Capital IQ 18 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
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What can insurers do to beat the odds and emerge from the current environment as winners? © imageBROKER/Luca Renner/Getty Images
3 Strategic imperatives for insurers So far we have sketched the trends and challenges buffeting the industry. Their effects run so deep that insurers now face some fundamental strategic questions: — How can we improve shareholder value creation? — How can we unlock latent demand and improve customer experience? — How can we overcome stagnating productivity? — How can we reimagine the employee proposition to attract and retain talent post- COVID-19? — How can we frame the industry’s wider purpose and role in society? Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 21
Answering these questions is an urgent and Risks are rapidly evolving. In P&C commercial broadly transformational task. In our view, it lines, for instance, data and cybersecurity risk can be best accomplished by taking action on and machine-learning liability are coming to the following nine imperatives: the fore. New risks call for new products and a reallocation of priorities, and they represent — Make environmental, social, and governance significant opportunities for P&C and life (ESG) considerations a core feature of insurers that are willing to innovate. Such firms the business model. ESG issues increasingly are taking three steps: making their products affect how all companies do business. More modular, reallocating capital between and more companies and their investors personal and commercial lines, and moving are recognizing ESG as a strategic priority quickly to establish strong market positions in that involves significant business risks and the new risks. opportunities. In interactions with many stakeholders, including at annual general As noted, climate risk will require product meetings of publicly listed insurers, ESG has innovation. But even more innovation is become a major theme. necessary as the insurability of entire regions may come into question.18 As our colleagues But ESG is often used as a catchall term have written, “The P&C industry can address covering many topics; for any given company, this issue by forming an industry-wide just a handful of those topics will be of coalition and collaborating more closely with supreme importance. As an illustration, governments and regulators.”19 At the very consider climate risk, an area in which least, requiring customers to opt out of evidence is mounting that P&C insurers will protection, rather than the current model soon need to revisit their business models.17 of opting in, could substantially increase However, while many insurers have begun insurance penetration, as behavioral to incorporate climate-risk considerations science has shown. This raises the issue in their investment processes, new-product of affordability; on that front, rather than launches and underwriting processes are artificially suppressing risk-based rates, mostly unchanged. With climate risk mounting, governments and insurers might need stronger insurers have an opportunity to broaden public–private partnerships, including the relevance of the industry’s traditional risk government insurance voucher programs to transfer to explicitly address risk mitigation. address affordability issues without losing Five simultaneous actions can make this the highly valuable pricing mechanism happen: stress-test total exposure against that signals risks back to the insured (for projected climate hazards; build resilience example, to prevent building in areas with high and rebalance portfolios; help organizations flood risk). mitigate climate risk; create innovative products to address climate-related risk; and — Enhance and personalize customer revise investment strategies. engagement and experience. New customer behaviors require a shift in distribution. — Regain relevance through product Consumers are embracing digital channels and innovation and coverage of new risks. have become used to delightful experiences While the insurance industry has improved its with leading tech companies. They expect resilience and solvency in recent years, some the same when buying insurance both online substantial risks have been left uninsured. and offline. A seamless, consistent “multi- A fast-changing world is creating many access” experience20 in every channel is now new and evolving risks—cyberrisks, climate the gold standard for insurers. At the same change, pandemics, intangible assets—that time, most customers still expect some form of remain underinsured, while other risks have advice on most products. Addressing customer been gradually transferred to governments needs and improving customer experience to handle. thus does not necessarily mean going direct. It might mean supporting distributors with 17 “Climate change and P&C insurance: The threat and opportunity,” McKinsey, November 19, 2020. 18 Sylvain Johansson, Andy Luo, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, and Leda Zaharieva, “State of property and casualty insurance 2020,” McKinsey, April 22, 2020. 19 Ibid. 20 Simon Kaesler, Michael Krause, and Johannes-Tobias Lorenz, “The multi-access (r)evolution in insurance sales,” McKinsey, April 1, 2020. 22 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
seamless, digital customer journeys that and organizational foundations as well as let customers decide which topics they can the necessary partnerships to generate access digitally themselves and on which value from their ecosystem approaches. Our topics they value personal advice (for example, conversations with insurance executives before buying a complex and low-frequency around the world suggest that leading carriers product or in the case of a severe claim). take a three-stage approach22 to participating in or forming an ecosystem: strategize, Major European and US carriers have not enable, and generate value. These stages moved as quickly as some players in Asia that can help insurers implement ecosystems in have seamlessly linked their digital platforms manageable, focused phases. and tied agent channels and invested in customer personalization and engagement. — Develop new businesses for the digital age. Carriers willing to launch this journey could Private investors have spotted the potential follow different approaches based on their for improvement and the not-too-distant strengths and organizational capabilities. Many prospect of attractive returns in insurance. insurers that traditionally rely on agents start They are investing heavily in insurtechs, whose by providing digital tools to agents. Insurers attractive talent pools can rapidly create and that depend on direct distribution are typically scale new businesses. far down the road of digitalization; they can In this context, incumbent carriers must augment direct channels with tools to connect reinvent their business models to fulfill customers with people. Carriers that rely on the imperative to grow and, ultimately, to both an agent network and direct channels deliver stakeholder value. As our colleagues can build a true multi-access model that fully wrote recently, “New-business building is integrates both agent and direct channels. emerging as a crucial strategic priority to drive — Engage with ecosystems and insurtechs. reinvention and innovation for the industry. The ongoing drive toward digitalization has Part of the reason is speed: what used to take also put the insurance industry on the verge years must now be done in months or weeks of a paradigm shift: as traditional industry to meet changing demands of the market. borders fall away, ecosystems will greatly Insurance executives must shift how they lead influence the future of insurers, with insurtechs their institutions—from a methodical pace aiming to play a role in this recomposition of of change to the decisive reinvention of their the value chain. Our research suggests that businesses. Many established companies ecosystems could encompass $60 trillion in have tried and failed to build new businesses revenue by 2030.21 from scratch. The ones that succeed combine the speed of a start-up with the scale and Many insurance executives are looking at resources of the core business.”23 ways to engage with emerging ecosystems in areas such as mobility, healthcare, Organizations that repeatedly build successful and the connected home. While only new businesses exhibit six characteristics: the very largest insurers will be able to strong commitment from senior management, create or orchestrate their own ecosystems, obsession with value over ideas, a test-and- the ability to connect with ecosystems will learn culture, “open architecture” capabilities, be a prerequisite for growth for all carriers as balance between organizational freedom and these systems gain in scale and customers corporate support, and dynamic performance come to expect insurance products as part of management and measurement. To get the offering. started on new-business building, insurers can look for opportunities that simultaneously Carriers will need to take a close look at their meet customer demands, square with relationships with end customers in the context the organization’s strengths, and are sizable of purchasing journeys—such as buying a car, enough to create real value. going on vacation, and buying a home—and decide how to embed solutions and services — Scale impact from data and analytics. Most alongside insurance coverage. To succeed, insurance executives would agree that data insurers need to build the technological and analytics capabilities are becoming table 21 Miklos Dietz, Hamza Khan, and Istvan Rab, “How do companies create value from digital ecosystems?,” McKinsey, August 7, 2020. 22 “Ecosystems and platforms: How insurers can turn vision into reality,” McKinsey, March 12, 2020. 23 Ari Libarikian and Kurt Strovink, “CEO brief: The future of business building in insurance,” McKinsey, June 2, 2021. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 23
stakes in the P&C and life sectors in Europe, even more advanced technologies to North America, and Asia.24 Leaders see enhance decision making and productivity, enormous potential in best-in-class data and lower costs, and optimize the customer analytics capabilities across the value chain, experience: as AI becomes more deeply even for the highest-performing companies. integrated25 in the industry, carriers need to For example, even the leading P&C insurers understand the potential for AI to reshape can see loss ratios improve three to five claims, underwriting, pricing, and distribution. points, new business premiums increase With this understanding, they can build 10 to 15 percent, and retention in profitable the skills and create the culture needed for segments jump 5 to 10 percent. However, an AI-powered future. after years of investing and experimenting, — Modernize core technology platforms. most insurers have not yet seen the return on From 2012 to 2020, technology’s average their investments at the enterprise level. While share of operating costs rose by 36 percent individual pilots are successful, they realize for P&C and 10 percent for life. The key driver the real challenge is in scaling the impact to is increasing digitalization—at both the front the whole organization. We call this the pilot end, where technology enhances the customer trap; to escape it, insurers need to move experience, and the back end, where digital analytics from experiments to the mainstream. drives productivity gains and operational This move requires a combination of distinctive performance. Digitalization is straining legacy analytics, tools, frontline and management systems, some of which are decades old, and routines, and investments in talent and many insurers are considering a replacement capability building. The ideal mix of these of core systems with tech platforms that elements will vary by line of business. Based support the requirements of the digital age. on our experience with similar efforts, getting The challenge is that such projects can take a few things right often determines whether five to ten years, and they often last longer companies achieve their full potential. One and cost more than expected. Insurers principle is to start small to learn and build need to clearly pinpoint the real business conviction—for example, by picking two lines requirements, quantify the effects, and of business, one with strong performance then identify the tech changes required to and another that is performing less well, to achieve them. A wholesale change of all core prove impact. “Big bang” efforts made without systems is not always the right answer, and examples of the potential outcome often the long timeline of such a change can prevent fail to drive change. Another guideline: keep carriers from adjusting to rapidly changing the effort anchored in the C-suite; delegating market conditions. down can dilute long-term aspirations. Carriers To reach the next normal of core technology,26 should also focus on the pace of execution: carriers will need to take three bold actions: in other words, speed is a strategy, especially reimagine the relationship between the IT in the next 18 to 24 months, given evolving group and other business functions, reinvent market conditions. Fourth, carriers should the ways that IT delivers products and services engage the front line throughout the effort to internal customers, and anticipate the future to help ensure lasting change; adoption by requirements of technology systems to provide users is the foundation for success. Finally, it’s the organization with essential capabilities (but a good idea to link capital allocation decisions without necessarily undertaking a complete to the latest market intelligence and insights change of the IT stack). (at a high enough frequency to ensure you can react to market shifts). — Address the productivity imperative. In the current conditions, addressing structural At the same time, technology is evolving expenses27 has become an even more quickly. The next level will be to leverage important source of value—especially given 24 Kia Javanmardian, Sirus Ramezani, Ashish Srivastava, and Cameron Talischi, “How data and analytics are redefining excellence in P&C underwriting,” McKinsey, September 24, 2021. 25 Ramnath Balasubramanian, Ari Libarikian, and Doug McElhaney, “Insurance 2030—The impact of AI on the future of insurance,” McKinsey, March 12, 2021. 26 Krish Krishnakanthan, Ani Majumder, Björn Münstermann, and Peter Braad Olesen, “Reaching the next normal of insurance core technology,” McKinsey, July 2, 2020. 27 Alex D’Amico, Kweilin Ellingrud, Daniel Garza, and Nancy Szmolyan, “The productivity imperative for US life and annuities carriers,” McKinsey, March 16, 2021. 24 Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022
the limited progress to date. Total expenses colleagues summed it up recently: “Once in relative to total revenues (including investment a generation (if that), we have the opportunity income) increased by 20 percent from 2003 to to reimagine how we work. In the 1800s, 2019 for the life and annuities industry and by the Industrial Revolution moved many in 6 percent for P&C insurance carriers. During Europe and the United States from fields to these same years, automakers and telecoms factories. In the 1940s, World War II brought companies successfully reduced their total women into the workforce (if not the C-suite) expense ratios by 15 percent or more.28 at unprecedented rates. In the 1990s, the explosion of PCs and email drove a rapid Insurers need more than mere piecemeal increase in productivity and the speed of attempts at improvements. Only decision making, ushering in the digital age as a transformative approach29 will allow we know it today. And in 2020, the COVID-19 an insurer to survive and thrive in a post- pandemic drove employees out of offices to COVID-19 world. Each carrier is unique, but work from home. ... The return to the workplace any company can begin the process to improve is a chance to create a new, more effective productivity by establishing the trajectory operating model that works for companies and full performance potential of the business and people navigating a world of increasing across the value chain—including sales and uncertainty. There is, however, one big catch: distribution, product development, operations, employers must confront the broadening technology, and corporate functions. disconnect between how they and their With a clear vision, insurers can write employees see the future.”30 Because of this a comprehensive and detailed plan with clear, disconnect, a record number of employees measurable goals and assign responsibility to are quitting or thinking about doing so (the specific executives. Financial, operational, and so-called Great Resignation). 31 customer-experience targets are all in scope. Many companies don’t really understand why Examples include straight-through processing their employees are leaving. Without knowing rates and all-digital policy application and the true causes of attrition, companies issuance rates in underwriting. Without both sometimes offer pay raises and bonuses that clear goals and accountability, transformations fall flat. Rather than sensing appreciation, often deliver poor results. employees sense a transaction. Leaders need To do the work, insurers should build a team to start from scratch, question everything, and to continually and logically sequence all make changes to the working model based on the improvement initiatives so that every part the evidence. of the organization knows what to do and There is no road map or playbook for this when to do it in a harmonized way. A senior unprecedented time. Experimentation will be executive should lead the team, holding people key. Carriers can try different working models accountable for their actions and their results. and norms, physical-space layouts, and tools The keys to success of such a productivity in service of a future that balances productivity transformation are top-management with creativity, personal flexibility with team conviction, leadership to challenge prevailing collaboration, and the office with the home. orthodoxies and drive step-change That means experimenting and piloting as performance improvements, and a rigorous individuals, teams, business units, offices, and execution machine that ensures delivery (and, organizations. Letting experiments play out is where required, adaptation) of initiatives. not easy for many leaders. A clear solution may — Reimagine culture, diversity, and ways of not be immediately apparent—the big answers working to attract and retain talent. Our may not emerge for years. 28 Ibid. 29 Alexander Erk, Pradip Patiath, Jonathan Pedde, and Jasper van Ouwerkerk, “Insurance productivity 2030: Reimagining the insurer for the future,” McKinsey, October 8, 2020. 30 “It’s time for leaders to get real about hybrid,” July 9, 2021. 31 Aaron De Smet, Bonnie Dowling, Marino Mugayar-Baldocchi, and Bill Schaninger, “‘Great Attrition’ or ‘Great Attraction’? The choice is yours,” McKinsey Quarterly, September 8, 2021. Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 25
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