Super Apps in Financial Services - Business Models and Opportunities
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81 SECTOR BRIEFING DBS Asian Insights DBS Group Research • September 2019 Super Apps in Financial Services Business Models and Opportunities
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 02 Super Apps in Financial Services Business Models and Opportunities Sachin MITTAL sachinmittal@dbs.com LIM Rui Wen ruiwenlim@dbs.com Produced by: Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research @dbsinsights asianinsights@dbs.com Wen Nan Tan Editor Martin Tacchi Art Director
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 03 04 Executive Summary 07 What are SuperApps? Features of a Game Changing SuperApp Potential Disruptors in Asia Proliferation of SuperApps Regulatory Risks of SuperApps 12 SuperApps: Implications on Financial Services Virtual Banks Robo-advisors Insurance 34 Ride-sharers in the Insurance Space Grab Go-Jek Didi 36 Looking Ahead: The Future for Traditional Players An Integrated Model: A Possible Road to Profitability 42 References
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 04 Executive Summary The SuperApp phenomena began in China with Alibaba and Tencent positioning themselves at the heart of China’s internet infrastructure. These Apps allow users to access several features that would only be available through multiple apps and cross-sell to their large customer base. Key feature of a SuperApp Large user base with Superior data analytics Agility in working with frequent engagement other players Source: DBS Bank Ride-sharers’ search for profit in banking and insurance via SuperApps Despite strong potential for growth in the ride-sharing industry, major ride-sharers are struggling to generate profits. Embracing a SuperApp approach is potentially the silver lining to ride-sharers’ woes. Some inherent features of ride-sharers may qualify them to become SuperApps in the future. Based on our proprietary framework, we attempt to identify which popular apps are positioned well to qualify as SuperApps in their respective countries. Potential SuperApps in Asia Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 05 In this report we explore whether popular Apps will take advantage of the sweet-spot they are currently in, to emerge as SuperApps and what will be their impact in the banking and insurance sectors? How would the contest to become SuperApps impact banking? Popular Apps around the globe are exploring the possibility of venturing into financial services, often starting off with digital wallets and payments. Success in mobile payments is a big factor in determining the quality of consumer data while regulations is the other key variant. The larger the percentage of unbanked population in the country, the bigger the opportunity. That said, in markets with smaller unbanked population and more regulatory restrictions, there are opportunities for incumbents to capture market share from others if they collaborate with SuperApps to target their customers. New entrants looking to penetrate markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong should also look at utilizing a more integrated banking model which ventures beyond the traditional deposit taking and credit model, to successfully battle well-established incumbents. Indonesia, Philippines & Vietnam present huge potential with 60%-70% of population being unbanked Vietnam Source: DBS Bank What should traditional banking players do in the face of the threat from SuperApps? How should the incumbents respond? Collaborate Retaliate Co-Exist Partner with the new entrants Counter offers by the new Cede the niche markets to if such partnerships expand entrants aggressively and the new entrants to focus on the addressable market of the seek strategic alliances to digitisation and improving incumbents expand into the niche market service offering to your current segments target market
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 06 How would the contest to become SuperApps impact insurance? Much like the banking industry, the insurance industry in Indonesia and the Philippines present large opportunity with >90% of population not having any insurance in place. The big challenge for new players is mostly the lack of enough customer data and a distribution channel accessible to a large chunk of the population. We believe some of the popular SuperApps resolve these challenges by acting as digital distributors for new or existing insurers. Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines Insurance Industry present big opportunities for SuperApps Source: DBS Bank What should traditional insurance players do in the face of the threat from SuperApps? Popular Apps are unlikely to cause major disruption in the insurance sector, given the inherent difficulties in setting up insurance operations including risk management, regulatory approvals etc. Partnering up with the popular Apps for the distribution of products might unlock a substantial unserved market for the incumbents How should the incumbents respond? Partner Partnering up with the SuperApps for the distribution of insurance products might unlock a substantial unserved/underserved market for insurance for the incumbents.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 07 What are SuperApps? A Super Application (SuperApp) essentially allows users to access, on a single platform, separate features conventionally only available on different applications by building an ecosystem of seemingly unrelated services. WeChat is one such example which evolved from a simple messenger application to a SuperApp with functionalities across social media, banking, online shopping, food and grocery delivery, taxi hailing, healthcare, etc. Other examples include Alipay, PingAn and Go-Jek. SuperApps create an ecosystem surrounding its target audience, unearthing opportunities to cross-sell services and improve customer stickiness within the platform. They are often fairly difficult to create, requiring first a large mobile customer base and the need to aggregate a set of compelling and frequently used services. Tencent’s WeChat platform is one of the best known examples of a SuperApp Content E-Commerce WeChat Super-App Transport Financial Services Food Delivery Source: Tencent, DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 08 Features of a Game Changing SuperApp Large user base with Superior data analytics Agility in working with frequent engagement Customer Data Platforms other players A Large user base attracts provide a well-integrated 360 Openness for partnerships partners easily while frequency degree of each customer, and development of APIs to of usage, makes the app top- which was not possible few support easy on-boarding of of-the-mind years ago partners and minimise time-to- market of new services Source: DBS Bank 1. Large user base with frequent engagement SuperApps require a large base of customers that interact with the platform frequently to collect troves of customer data to support the marketing of other services, attract partners to its platform and amass sufficient demand for new services. SuperApps also have to be well integrated with the lives of the customers and have to be platforms that customers visit and use on a regular basis. 2. Improvement in data analytics especially Customer Data Platforms (CDP) Developments in CDP bring together disparate data from customers into a single environment to provide a well-integrated 360 degree view of each individual customer. This was not possible few years ago when most companies adopted a more singular approach, targeting users based on IP addresses, with no additional information on age, sex or real time needs. While companies had access to a plethora of data, a true 360-degree view of customers was not available. This was so as first party data tend to focus only on specific customer needs served by the company. By offering services across different sectors, corporates can widen their view of the customer, thereby allowing them to successfully implement a CDP platform and gain insights into customers therefrom. 3. Agility in working with other players Openness to form partnerships and willingness to share the platform and its customer base to other partners are essential features for the creation of Superapps. Availability of an ecosystem of Application Programming Interfaces (API) to allow communication between different platforms also remain essential for SuperApps. This would ease the
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 09 process of onboarding new partners, and lessen the time to market of new services. Openness of new technology players and developments in APIs have been critical for the success and evolution of SuperApps. Distinctively, SuperApps that have emerged in China are predominantly mobile wallets. This is driven by poor penetration of alternative payment mechanisms to cash (such as credit cards), growing penetration of smartphones and a higher base of younger population. Mobile wallet is likely to be one of the most frequently used ecosystem-platform by consumers in Asia. Mobile wallet players also capture customer data about purchases across various sectors and develop APIs to work with various players. Key mobile wallet players in Asia Philippines Indonesia Vietnam China Malaysia Thailand Singapore
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 10 SuperApp Framework Parameter Definition Criteria Score User Base & Engagement User Base Market reach (Market share or Customer Reach) in >60% 6 the country/region with core operations. 30-60% 4 >30% 2 High Engagement Mobile payments reach (No. of users as a % of >60% 6 customer base or population or estimated no. of 20-60% 4 downloads as a % of target market reach. 5-20% 2 5 3 developments through partnerships/JV etc. 2-5 2 100 3 past 2 years 20-100 2
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 11 SuperApps that leveraged on the myriad of factors to build out their platforms. This, however, may not be the case elsewhere. In developed markets like Singapore and Malaysia, there is a high likelihood for SuperApps to emerge as different players focus on bundling services targeting different customer niches and needs. For example, local telecom players are developing a utility-services focused ecosystem. Regulators may also intervene in these markets to ensure that customer data is not held hostage by a few dominant entities. This is to ensure that benefits of customer data and analytics are more wide-spread across segments. The landscape is somewhat different in developing markets as some popular applications have already begun their transition to SuperApps. Go-Jek has positioned its platform as an application for “all needs”. The ride sharer presently provides services that caters to transportation, delivery and logistics and payment needs of customers. Further to which, it also provides auto-mechanics and cleaning services. Competition for ride sharers from banking, telecom and other customer-centric sectors remain fairly muted in many developing markets. Regulatory restrictions on electronic data collection and protection are also in early developmental stages. Regulatory Risks of SuperApps Data Protection & Information Privacy Regulations Anti-trust Regulations The principles behind Data Protection regulations Anti-trust regulations promotes and enforces require SuperApps to use data lawfully and market competition in order for consumers to with transparency to ensure data integrity and enjoy the benefits of competition such as lower confidentially1 prices and market efficiency2 SuperApps collect large volumes of private data SuperApps intend to become technological from various participants3 behemoths in order to improve their bottom-line performance SuperApps run the risk of being targeted by governments using Data Protection Regulations SuperApps run the risk of being targeted under if they use data beyond their defined purpose for anti-trust regulation if they use their dominant collection market position in one sector to gain market share in another through unsustainable competitive The European Union courts have seen over behaviors 200,000 cases under data protection regulations already and fined over USD 50m4 The roar of politicians towards using anti-trust regulations against technology companies like More than 120 countries have data protection Apple, Google, Facebook and etc implies risk for regulations and at least 30 others have data SuperApps5 protection bills in their legislature along international agreements for data protection6 Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 12 SuperApps: Implications on Financial Services Virtual Banks Popular applications around the globe are now starting to explore the possibility of venturing into financial services. Often starting off with digital wallets and payments, popular applications first gain access to valuable customer data, which they later combine with their digital expertise to offer more lucrative financial solutions to customers. Some examples of virtual banking entrants in the region include KBank, WeBank and MyBank. Interestingly, they have also became profitable within 2 years of their launch, which naturally poses a question on the opportunities for SuperApps in ASEAN. We see at least four different business models for new entrants depending upon the regulations and market competition. Based on our findings, we believe the banking sector in Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines are big opportunities for SuperApps. This is largely due to the respective countries’ large unbanked population, ease of regulatory compliance and availability of data. Indonesia Indonesia is home to a large share of the world’s unbanked and underbanked population, due to difficulties in catering to the services required in a commercially feasible manner. However, with the advancements in technology and smartphone, new entrants are looking to capture this market share as costs of servicing these customers have been reduced drastically. The country also has fairly lax regulatory restrictions in terms of data protection and a correspondingly relaxed compliance requirement in the banking sector. In our view, this only translates to potentially milder regulatory restrictions on virtual banks. The country’s low credit card penetration and high uptake of mobile payments platforms further translate to easy data access for aspiring SuperApps, making Indonesia’s banking sector rife for disruption. Vietnam, Philippines and Thailand Philippines & Vietnam are in a similar league, with large unbanked populations and relative ease of data collection for SuperApps. Thailand also presents a great opportunity for aspiring SuperApps.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 13 Singapore and Hong Kong In contrast, the banking sectors in Singapore and Hong Kong present relatively small opportunities for SuperApp disruption given tighter regulatory restrictions, smaller unbanked populations and well developed payments ecosystems via formal banking channels. That said, there are still opportunities for incumbents to capture market share from others if they collaborate with SuperApps to target their customers. New entrants looking to penetrate the Singapore and Hong Kong markets should look at utilizing a more integrated banking model which ventures beyond the traditional deposit taking and credit model, to successfully battle well-established incumbents. Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines present big opportunities for SuperApps in ASEAN Vietnam Source: DBS Bank In our assessment of opportunities for SuperApps in ASEAN, we factored in the percentage of unbanked population in each country (represented by size of the bubble), ease of regulatory compliance and availability of data to determine which markets in the region are most likely to be disrupted. To determine ease of regulatory compliance, we factored in the availability of data protection regulations in the market, complexity of compliance with existing banking regulations, potential regulatory complexity for virtual banks and the size of each country’s shadow economies. To determine availability of data, we factored in current penetration rate of credit cards, availability of a unified payments clearance platform that supports electronic fund transfers on mobile platforms (eg. transfers to mobile numbers, email IDs, etc), penetration of mobile payments platforms and the availability of SME data for aspiring SuperApps. Low penetration of credit cards presents a great opportunity for mobile payments platforms to flourish. On the other hand, the lack of a unified payment platform makes it difficult for existing operators to effectively address customers’ need for mobile platforms.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 14 Grab seeks to build, buy or partner to create its own SuperApp Build Buy Partner Source: DBS Bank Business Models of Virtual Banks We have identified four notable virtual banking business models in retail banking which are functions of regulations and competition in their countries. Business Overview Deposit taking Lending and Revenue Generation Model Financing Digital Functions like a traditional commercial Deposits are Data from the Net Interest income Commercial bank, taking deposits from customers primarily acquired primary service through interest Bank and providing financing solutions. from customers. of the entity (eg: rate spread on Entity behind the bank is well-known, Customers at payment service financing products paving way for easier attraction of Kakao Bank can provider, social and deposits, deposits. open an account media platform) Limited focus on in 7 minutes vs. is used to assess service fees and Kakao Bank is owned by- Kakao Corp 20-30 at traditional credit worthiness commissions unlike (10% stake) and Korea Investment banks. The bank and repayment traditional banks. Holdings (58% stake). Korea had c. 17% of capability. Kakao Bank Investment Holdings brings banking the country’s Kakao Bank managed to turn expertise while Kakao Corp operates population as its uses data from profitable within Kakao Talk and Kakao Pay, the most customers by 1Q19 Kakao pay and just 18-months of popular messenger app and a digital (18 months since government record operation. wallet in South Korea. launch). to provide loan approvals within a minute.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 15 Business Overview Deposit taking Lending and Revenue Generation Model Financing Digital Functions primarily as an online Customer deposits Loans are Two sources - Net Distributor distributor of finance products on are focused on to a underwritten by Interest income and Bank behalf of traditional banks. Collection lesser degree either traditional banks commission fees of deposits and on-balance sheet due to regulatory leveraging their from traditional financing is focused on to a lesser restrictions or lack balance sheets. banks. WeBank degree. WeBank in China, backed of public trust. On balance sheet became profitable by Tencent, focuses on disbursing Retail deposits at financing is focused within two years personal loans via WeChat with c. 80% WeBank accounted on to a much lesser of its launch. of the loans underwritten by 50-60 for just 7% of its degree. WeBank Net income from financial institutions in the locality liabilities in 2017 primarily works commissions was of the borrower. WeBank had over due to regulatory as the platform c. 34% of the total 60m customers as of 2017 (~4% of restrictions on providing credit income. China’s population) and managed to transaction volume assessment, loan get well ahead of major Chinese city and deposit for disbursement and commercial banks in terms of the retail virtual banks. collection on behalf loan portfolio, within just two years of of the lender. operations. Digital Focuses primarily on the provision of Customer deposits Loans are financed Mainly net interest Alternative financing solutions, with loan funding are focused on to a through alternative income. MyBank financed largely derived through alternative lesser degree either financing channels, turned profitable Bank financing means other than customer due to regulatory including interbank within 1.5 years of deposits. MyBank in China, backed by restrictions or lack borrowings and launch. MyBank Alibaba, funds c. 60% of loans through of public trust. securitization. generated a net in the interbank market.MyBank Retail deposits at Interbank funding interest margin already caters to over 6m SMEs in MyBank accounted sources accounted (on total assets) of China, representing over half the 11m for just 34% of its for c. 60% of 4.7% vs. 5.4% for SMEs in China. liabilities in 2017 MyBank’s total WeBank. due to regulatory liabilities in 2017. restrictions. Digital bank Functions similar to the commercial Deposits are Uses technology Net Interest plus software banking model. The bank further acquired from and data analytics income through provider extends its offerings by running customers. Any to provide loans to interest rate spread marketplace or by offering white- funding shortfall customers. between loans and labeled banking products. Starling is financed deposits, Earns Bank in the UK, functions as a mobile- through interbank commissions, service only commercial bank and operates borrowings. fees or revenue a marketplace offering a range of shares for product products like accounting software and sales offered via the Wealth management products. marketplace or on the white-labeled banking products. Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 16 1. Digital Commercial Bank Operating like any traditional commercial bank, a virtual bank rakes in customer deposits and uses them to provide loans to customers, profiting from the net interest spread. Kakao Bank in South Korea is an example of a virtual bank operating under this model. The bank is backed by Korea Investment Holding, a leading financial services provider and Kakao Corporation, a media and technology company in South Korea, famous for its “Kakao Talk” messenger and social media app, used by c. 85% of the South Korean population7. Launched in 2017, Kakao Bank, the second virtual bank in South Korea, managed to attract over 2mn customers in a fortnight, securing KRW1tn (US$930mn) in savings and providing KRW770bn (US$701mn) in loans8. Kakao Bank caters to over 17% of the South Korean population and presently has over KRW 14.9tn in deposits9 (US$12.6bn). To put this into context, MyBank in China managed to accumulate only US$3.6bn in deposits over a longer two-year time frame10. Kakao Bank managed to turn profitable within just 18-months of operation, turning in a profit of KRW 6.6bn (US$5.6mn) in 1Q19. A large part of the success of Kakao Bank can be attributed to two key reasons. i. Kakao Bank was backed by well-known, established players in the country Korea Investment Holdings and Kakao Corporation was instrumental in bringing public trust. ii. Access to customer data and high-tech nature of the bank Backing of Kakao Corporation provided the back with access to extensive social media and payments data of customers, which Kakao Bank could then use for credit assessments and the bank’s operations. The bank reduced the time taken to on-board customers to just 7 minutes vs. 20-30 at traditional banks11. 2. Digital Distributor Bank Under this model (made famous by WeBank in China), the virtual bank primarily functions as a distributor of financial products on behalf of traditional financial institutions. The bank is typically backed by a player with strong technological capabilities and access to customer data. The virtual bank also operates as a commercial bank but a substantial proportion of their lending is underwritten by
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 17 traditional financial institutions. On top of net interest margins, the virtual bank earns commissions and servicing fees for the services it provides to traditional banks. Regulatory restrictions in China impose restrictions on fund transfers to other banks and daily transaction limits of deposit accounts that have not undergone on-site verification at a physical bank branch. This makes it difficult for virtual banks in China to rake in customer deposits to finance their loan portfolios. WeBank, backed by Tencent in China, primarily focuses on the disposition of personal financing solutions via its WeChat social media platform. c. 80% of the bank’s loans are underwritten by c. 50-60 financial institutions12 that are in the locality of the borrower, with WeBank primarily working as the platform providing credit assessment, loan disbursement and collection on behalf of the lender. WeBank managed to generate a profit within two years of its launch and registered a net profit of US$209mn in 2017 (RMB 1.5bn). Net income from handling fees and commissions for the facilitation of loans on behalf of other lenders accounted for c. 34% of the bank’s total revenue. This model works well in markets where securing retail deposit is difficult due to the lack of trust or regulatory barriers. The model, however, limits the upside potential of new entrants in the long run 3. Digital Alternative financed Bank Similar to the distributor banking model, the alternative financing model is typically practiced in regulatory environments where restrictions surrounding the collection of deposits make it difficult for virtual banks to raise funding. Under the alternative financing model, the bank may turn to sources of funding like interbank borrowings or securitization of assets to finance its operations. Profitability of this model tends to be lower comparative to other models, as the cost of funding is typically higher. MyBank in China operates under this model, with c. 60% of its liabilities comprising of inter-bank borrowings. The bank, with the backing of the e-commerce giant Alibaba, concentrates on the provision of loans to SMEs, who are typically underserved in the Chinese market. With limited access to retail deposits, the bank funds a large portion of its loans through interbank borrowings and the issuance of asset backed securities. Retail deposits accounted for just 34% of MyBank’s total liabilities13. Relatively higher rates on SME borrowings may have prompted MyBank to opt for more expensive interbank funding sources. MyBank generated a net interest margin (on total assets) of 4.7% vs. 5.4% for WeBank. 4. Digital bank plus software provider Further to operating like traditional commercial banks, these banks also offer their
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 18 platforms to other service providers. Platform banks may operate marketplaces, paving way for other service providers to leverage the bank’s customer base and offer other integrated services or white-labeled banking products. It essentially allows non- banking users to leverage on the bank’s banking expertise, license and technology. Apart from generating net interest income, platform banks also enjoy commissions, service fees or revenue shares for product sales offered via the marketplace or sale of white-labeled banking products. One such example is Starling bank in the UK. Starling bank, launched in 2014, is a mobile-only virtual bank in the UK with over 460,000 retail and 30,000 SME customer accounts. The bank offers a range of accounts including chequing and savings accounts for retail customers and business accounts for partnerships and sole-proprietorships. The bank also maintains the “Starling Marketplace”, providing a range of solutions including wealth management products for retail customers and accounting software and tax advisory solutions for SMEs. Starling bank plans to further extend the marketplace with the inclusion of insurance and financing solutions for customers. Fidor Bank in Germany, a virtual bank launched in 2009, on top of operating a marketplace, focuses on extending its services by offering a Banking-as-a-Service product. The product allows non-banking players to roll-out banking products, utilizing the banking platform of Fidor bank. Fidor bank provides its banking expertise, banking license in the EU, technology and regulatory compliance allowing non-banking players to launch banking products such as current accounts, bank cards, payment platforms and credit products under the branding of the non- banking player. Lending Capabilities of Virtual Banks In general, many SuperApps have easy-to-navigate user interface with positive reviews for their user experience (UX). Putting credit underwriting capabilities aside, SuperApp aspirants should seek to re-shape the lending scene in two key ways: 1. Expand target segment to underbanked SMEs and unbanked retail customers 2. Attract existing banked customers by offering higher speed and convenience, on top of the SuperApp’s other lifestyle functionalities We think an incumbent should be better off by leveraging on its existing database with faster and more convenient loan processing to defend its existing customer base.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 19 Expand target segment to underbanked SMEs and Attract banked customers with higher speed, unbanked retail customers convenience and personalised services Unbanked retail customers and underbanked SMEs New entrants would seek to re-shape current retail lending would be the key focus of new entrants. through faster loan processing and fully-digitised applications New entrants who possess transactional data on unbanked For these customers, banks are ahead as banks possess customers and SMEs can better evaluate the credit worthiness more data of these customers. Licensed new entrants can of these customers vs banks who typically possess no data of also access the risk data through credit bureaus but that may these customers. not be as quick and comprehensive. For unbanked and underbanked customers, tech players Offer an integrated personalised statement on banking and have a clear competitive edge over the banks in assessing non-banking transactions lending capability. Disruption to the existing banks would be high as the Disruption to the existing banks would be low as the new entrants would be targeting the same set of customers new entrants would be targeting a new set of customers Faster loan processing and user-friendly platforms help MYBank leveraged transactional data from Alibaba HDFC win market share platform to build a loan portfolio c. US$ 130bn in 3 years HDFC bank in India digitized its credit approval process to MYBank leverages data from Alibaba’s e-commerce platform minimise human interventions and reduce the time take to to provide credit solutions to SMEs operating on Alibaba’s grant credit approvals and disbursement in 10 seconds in e-commerce platform. MYBank caters to 6m SMEs, roughly from May 2015 onwards compared to the industry standard half of all SMEs in China. MYBank offers competitive interest of several days. The bank digitized most of its documentation rates ranging from 6-16% vs. 20-40% charged by traditional requirements and linked its systems with the Aadhaar players. MYBank approves close to 60% of loan requests identification system. 10-second loans accounted for nearly and boasts a default rate of c. 1% much lower than that one-third of the total loans by 2018 with delinquency rates of traditional players. MyBank, for example, uses network on-par with loans disbursed physically. analysis of transactions, through data gathered from the AliPay and other sources, to evaluate if an entrepreneur HDFC has gained 3.1% market share of retail banking separates personal funds from business funds, one of the key revenue over the past five years. elements that drive credit worthiness of SMEs. Convenience and personalised services Grab has started sending out personalised monthly transaction statements to users, which captures non-banking transactions such as Grab rides, GrabFood orders and Grabpay transactions. Virtual banking operator Monzo in the UK categorises a user’s expenditure into segments such as clothes, groceries, entertainment and transport and has most recently partnered with fintech startup Flux to deliver digital receipts into its banking app across various merchants
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 20 Assessing Creditworthiness Using Transaction and Risk Data An important component of the lending business is the individuals that these virtual banks are lending to. The amount of loans that can be disbursed to a borrower is often determined by the individual’s credit worthiness. Traditional banks have been relying on inhouse historical data to assess borrowers’ credit risk. For individuals, these data include salary, cash holdings, debt repayment history amongst others. For corporates, financial profile, debt, valuation of collateral, industry outlook are also taken in to consideration. However, one might argue that risk data available accumulated are often retrospective – only pointing towards existing and historical financial conditions of a borrower. Unfortunately, these data points do not provide any useful insights towards the future financial standing of individuals and corporates. This is set to change with the proliferation of virtual banks due to the availability of transaction data, which tend to be more forward looking. Technology giants typically have access to transaction data derived through e-wallets, e-commerce operations, etc. In certain cases, non- financial data on demographics, live locations and contacts details are also captured at the point of loan disbursement. For example, a borrower’s locations or “check-ins” are being monitored and can be used to determine if an under banked worker has been reporting for work on time (and hence having the financial means to repay the loan that he has taken up). Said borrower’s communication and contact details can also be used to map credit risk – a borrower can be deemed to be more credit unworthy or bears higher default risk if the individual has been communicating frequently with other credit facilities. Balancing forward looking transactional data with historical risk data Transaction Data, coupled Collected only with advanced analytics allows over the last few tech giants to better assess years and does not the repayment ability of their cover the change in customer base behavior during an economic downturn Points only towards Risk Data, points towards the the existing financial existing financial conditions of conditions of the the borrower borrower Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 21 That said, the volume of transaction data available is relatively sparse due to the relative “newness” of virtual banks. Furthermore, transaction data alone is not sufficient for credit assessment – the absence of financial data disallows technology giants to model the repayment ability of the borrowers. Coupled with the fact that transaction data has only been collected over the last five to six years, where the world was experiencing healthy economic growth, it is hard to ascertain borrower behaviour during an economic downturn. An example of a technology giant that successfully harnessed the power of transaction and risk data is Tencent’s WeBank. Beyond transaction data, WeBank’s distributor banking model allows it to access risk data of borrowers, enabling it to make sound and holistic decisions for disbursing loans to its customers. Beyond risk analytics, data collected can also be used in credit pricing decisions, effectively shortening the lending process significantly. The distributor banking model allows WeBank to access risk data of customers that were previously not covered by banks or credit bureaus WITHOUT taking on the risk of default on those customers, as loans are usually disbursed by traditional financial institutions. Source: DBS Bank Regulatory considerations in Hong Kong and Singapore The emergence of various fintech companies around the world has redefined what it means to be a bank. In the past, traditional banks associated themselves as the intermediary to payments systems, deposits and lending, all while offering credit cards and other banking and capital markets solutions. With the proliferation of the internet, banking transactions are moving online. This inevitably puts into question the need for a physical branch network. China has been a forerunner in the virtual banking space, having issued five licenses since 2014. This allowed digital banks to provide loans to small businesses and consumers, but with strict limitations on accepting deposits. In 2014, Korea gave an initial approval for its first two virtual banks. More recently, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) both set up various guidelines and frameworks for virtual banks in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 22 While critics are of the view that Hong Kong’s licensing criteria is somewhat restrictive, we believe there are some common considerations for Hong Kong and Singapore regulators. Foremost, both regulators are keen on financial inclusion, and a potential benefit for virtual banks would be its ability to help promote the cause. This is so as virtual banks generally target the unmet or undeserved needs of retail and SMEs segment. Secondly, virtual banks would need to strike a balance between building market share and delivering a reasonable return on assets and equity. This stems from concerns on predatory tactics which may affect the stability of the banking sector. In Singapore’s case, MAS has stated explicitly that it will not allow any bank, digital or not, to engage in value-destructive competition to gain market share. Based on the above, it may be an appropriate conclusion to draw that regulators in Asia are primarily focused on the financial stability of the systems, and hence systematic risk and impact on incumbents caused by new players. Considerations Hong Kong Singapore Definition A virtual bank is defined as a bank which N/A primarily delivers retail banking services through the internet or other forms of electronic channels instead of physical branches. Scope Both financial firms (including existing In addition to any digital banks that the Singapore banking banks in Hong Kong) and non-financial groups may establish under the existing internet banking firms (including technology companies) framework introduced in 2000, new digital banking licences may apply to own and operate a virtual are extended to non-bank players. bank in Hong Kong. No. of licenses 8 licenses have already been issued. A maximum of 5 licenses with two full-service commercial More applications for licenses are under banking licenses and three wholesale banking licenses. consideration. Ownership Should be locally incorporated. Digital full bank licenses are available only to companies headquartered in Singapore and controlled by An entity with >50% ownership should Singaporeans. be a bank or a financial institution (if not, the bank should be held by Wholesale banking licenses are open to both local and an intermediate holding company foreign companies. incorporated in Hong Kong). Operational None. Not expected to maintain physical Digital banks will commence as restricted digital full banks restrictions branches and should not impose any and be subject to various deposit caps, business restrictions minimum account balance requirement and a lower minimum paid-up capital in its initial one to or low-balance fees on customers. two years; no prescribed time period in which restricted digital full bank must graduate to digital full bank. No access to automated teller machines or cash deposit machines network though allowed to offer cashback services through electronic funds transfer at point of sale (EFTPOS) terminals at retail merchants.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 23 Considerations Hong Kong Singapore Deposit taking None Restricted stage for digital full banks: Aggregate deposit restrictions cap of S$50m with an individual deposit cap of S$75,000. Deposits can only be secured from business partners, staff and related parties. Wholesale banks: Can accept fixed deposits upwards of S$250,000 from individuals. Free to open and maintain business deposit accounts for SMEs and corporates. Product None Restricted digital full bank: At entry point, can offer only restrictions simple, banking operations in not more than 2 overseas market. Upon progression, no business restrictions after meeting MAS’ criteria. Wholesale banks: Can only serve SMEs and other non-retail segments. Capital and Minimum capital requirement for Initial paid-up capital for restricted digital full bank: S$15m liquidity licensed banks: HK$300m. requirements Paid-up capital for digital full bank: S$1.5bn. Virtual banks must maintain adequate capital commensurate with the nature Both restricted and digital full bank are subject to similar of their operations and the banking risks capital requirements as local banks. Restricted full bank they are undertaking. needs to maintain liquidity of 16% of minimum liquid assets, thereafter, subject to similar liquidity requirements as local bank. Source: DBS Bank Robo-advisors Historically, new entrants draw liquid investments away from banks due to temporary loopholes or lack of regulations. In 1980s and 1990s, US and UK brokers took advantage of liberalisation of financial regulations by sweeping client money into funds. Fast forward to today, SuperApp aspirants have several options when looking into launching investment products. This range from offering money market products that resemble traditional retail deposit accounts (Eg. Yue Bao) or Robo-advisory services. Robo-advisory services is a great fit for many customers with simple investment needs, especially so for the underbanked and unbanked population of ASEAN. However, its value proposition, which is based on low-cost and transparency, limits the providers’ ability to generate fees. Furthermore, low entry barriers have resulted in many start-ups entering the space, driving up the acquisition cost per client. These challenges are particularly pronounced in ASEAN, each with its own set of regulations while being a fraction of the size of the European or US market.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 24 Examples of Robo-advisors in Singapore Robo advisor Assets Min. balance Fees StashAway 19+ ETFs including government, None 0.2 to 0.8% corporate bonds, US Equities, Small- depending cap Growth index funds, Consumer on amount Staple Equities, Asia ex-Japan Equities, gold, etc. Smartly 20+ ETFs in equities, government S$50 0.5 to 1% and corporate bonds, commodities, depending real estate and cash on amount AutoWealth More than 8,000 stocks and 600 S$3,000 0.5% per government bonds from US, Europe, year + US$18 APAC and Emerging Markets. per year Source: Moneysmart.sg Profitability of Robo-advisors According to Morningstar14, Robo-advisors spend c. US$300 on a gross basis acquiring each client account. It can take as long as a decade in some instances for Robo-advisors to recover the cost through fees, considering the 0.2% to 0.5% fees charged. Three things significantly weigh on the profitability of robo-advisors: 1. High client acquisition costs 2. Ongoing costs of servicing clients 3. Low revenue yield on client assets Gaining visibility among customers and converting potential leads to customer accounts remains one of the hardest and most expensive tasks for emerging Robo-advisors. Bulk of the seed funding raised in the initial stages of operations is invested in customer acquisitions. Costs dedicated to customer acquisitions account for a large proportion of the operating expenses Robo-advisory firms. This large capital outlay delays the path to profitability. WealthFront is one an example of an established Robo-advisor which has yet to record profits since its inception in 2008. Size of client accounts are likely smaller in Singapore than in the US, where two of the largest Robo-adivsors, Betterment and WealthFront, claimed average account sizes of between US$20,000 to US$40,000. However, client acquisition expenses are should technically be lower in Singapore as well given the smaller market size. Based on a hypothetical assumption below, a Robo-advisor could take at least 3 years to
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 25 recover its average client acquisition cost (CAC). This is three time the ideal time of a year. In order to be profitable within a year, it is imperative that either the fees charged be at least 1% of the investment or CAC be significantly lower for each customer. • Average client account size: S$10,000 • Average lifetime value (LTV) of customer: S$150 (assuming 0.5% of the investment amount over 3-years) • Average client acquisition cost (CAC): S$150 (at a c. 50% discount to CAC in the US) Case Study: Yu’e Bao Yu’e Bao was first set up as a repository for leftover cash that was temporarily stored in Alipay wallets, and has since surpassed JPMorgan’s US government money market fund in 2Q17 to become the world’s largest money market fund with $166bn under management. Since then, Yu’e Bao’s assets under management rose to $240bn in 4Q17. The success of Yu’e Bao hinged on two factors. By sweeping the money into a fund, Ant Financial offered returns of up to 6.8% in 2014, higher than the prevailing savings interest rate (0.35%). Another factor was the ambiguity in regulations which allowed Ant Financial to avoid the requirement of parking 20% of funds as reserves with the central bank. After realising Yu’e Bao’s disruptive power, regulator imposed 20% reserve requirement in 2017, subsequently raised to 50% in 2018. Also, there are individual quota requirements and daily caps in place for Yue’Bao investments crackdowns Yu’e bao currently offers a return of c. 2.3% by investing in money-market funds versus 0.35% savings rate The negative impact on the banking industry is insignificant. Fund size shrank to 0.5% of total banking deposits in March 2019 Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 26 Insurance Digitalisation of Insurance Backed by SoftBank’s ambitions, ride-sharers around the world are exploring opportunities in the traditional insurance services industry. While Softbank itself is not a technology firm, it is a major investor in technology-based insurance disruptors. Between 2017 and 2018 alone, SoftBank backed China’s largest online insurer ZhongAn, India’s biggest online insurance seller Policybazaar, as well as US home insurer Lemonade. Softbank sees the insurance sector as ripe for disruption and believes in the immense potential of cross selling between these “insurtechs” and other firms within its portfolio such as Grab, Didi and Uber. While Softbank and its portfolio of ride-sharers may be the first to venture into the insurance industry, it is definitely not the last. Other non-SoftBank backed ride-sharers such as Go-Jek are also making in-roads into insurance through equity investments in “insurtechs”. Mainstream Adoption Looming end-to-end digitisation for insurance companies 15% adoption rate - tipping point of mainstream adoption Digital distribution to become a common functionality among insurance players by 2020 (adoption in 2016 – 17%) Mainstream adoption fully- digital claims processing likely by 2020 with growing cross-sector partnerships Automated usage based (adoption in 2016 – 7%) pricing to reach the tipping point by late-2019, with improvements in real-time data collection and analytics (adoption in 2016 – 10%) Adoption rates are based on the % of innovations in the insurtech space. All data is for the Property and casualty segment. Sources: McKinsey, DBS Bank To determine which markets in the region are most likely to be disrupted via SuperApps, we have factored in the percentage of uninsured population in each country (represented by size of the bubble), concentration of the insurance industry in each country and the availability of data for SuperApps.
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 27 Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines Insurance Industry rife for disruption by SuperApps Source: DBS Bank In our X-Axis we try to rank the countries based on the concentration of the insurance market based on the number of firms and their share of the total insurance market (life and general separately). In Malaysia, life insurance market is highly concentrated with the top 5 insurers, accounting for c. 80% of Gross Written Premium (GWP). On the other hand, the Indonesian general insurance market is highly fragmented, with the top 5 insurers only accounting for c. 35% of GWP. In our opinion, concentrated markets in general are better suited for disruption since they offer higher profit opportunities allowing exploitation of pricing inefficiencies by new entrants. Concentrated markets generally offer higher profit making opportunities with listed incumbents recording higher margins. Although there is a notable exception in Singapore, where United Overseas Insurance Ltd had a bumper year in 2018. Concentrated markets typically post better profitability Country FY18 Average Pre-tax Profit Margin Indonesia 12% Singapore 27% Malaysia 9% Thailand 7% Philippines 7% China 4% Hong Kong 1% Source: Reuters, DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 28 That said, it should also be noted that market concentration in isolation may not be a good indication of profit making potential for new entrants. Indonesia is a prime example of the opposite; where market fragmentation enables future disruption with a largely uninsured population and the archipelago nature of the country, which prevents incumbents from establishing strong agent networks. Similar to our previous analysis on availability of data for the banking sector, we use credit card penetration and pervasiveness of mobile payments platforms as metrics in our Y-Axis. Our analysis suggests that the insurance industry in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are ripe for disruption by SuperApps. They provide better opportunities than developed economies such as Singapore and Hong Kong due to their respective low barriers to entry. In addition, ASEAN countries like Indonesia and Philippines are highly prone to natural disasters, political and economic instability and a high level of sectarian violence. Coverage for the above are presently not met by the incumbent insurers which could also provide a niche for SuperApps. Unlike banking, Government-funded social insurance leaves relatively smaller opportunities in Vietnam. Potential entry points to insurance industry Insurance Services Product design/ Product pricing Underwriting/ Distribution Policy claims Development risk management management Automotive Potential for entry Travel High Moderate Home Low Health SME Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 29 Insurance Distribution Models Business Overview Distribution of insurance Underwriting and Claims Profitability and Revenue Model products processing generation Digital Functions like a Nature of insurance Risk assessment takes A significant portion of Insurer traditional insurer products vary with the place via digital means the premium income in a selected sector insurer’s backers and and leverages partner’s however, has to be (more common in P&C focus of the insurer. data. Handling of claims shared with ecosystem and Health). Insurer’s Policies are largely happens online to a partners. For example, products are usually distributed via digital great degree albeit ZhongAn is yet to distributed through channels. For example, offline channels are generate profit since its its ecosystem partners. shipping return also used. For example, launch in 2014. c. 30% of For example, ZhongAn policies on e-commerce ZhongAn’s policies on ZhongAn’s net premiums operates with the platforms, flight delays flight cancellations take are shared with its backing of Alibaba, and event cancellations into account weather ecosystems partners. Tencent and Ping An on travel platforms data, airline history, (c. 33% combined are popular policies by airport history etc. ownership). ZhongAn ZhongAn. Shipping returns policy caters to six consumer is offered on partner centric ecosystems with channels. five major ecosystem partners. Insurance These are aggregators They are purely Does not get involved in Revenue from lead Aggregator of insurance plans and distributors of insurance insurance underwriting generation for the serves as a marketplace products. Policybazaar and claims processing insurers, advertising for policies. For example, portal is an exclusive but facilitates the and policy sales. In the Policybazaar is an online insurance focused registration of claims on case of Policybazaar, c. platform that aggregates e-commerce website behalf of its clients. 85% of FY18 revenues insurance plans and with c. 50% market came from policy sales. serves as a marketplace share in online insurance Policybazaar’s FY18 for policies, offering distribution space In revenue was US$22m more than 250 insurance India. with US$1.3m loss. plans from over 50 insurance brands on its platform. Orchestrator Generally, these are The orchestrator Insurance policies are Direct revenues from led Insurance large orchestrators distributes the insurance underwritten and commissions and service with a loyal customer products on behalf of managed by the insurer’s fees on premiums. base, who select the insurer and provides partners while the Orchestrators also enjoy exclusive partners to targeted marketing distributor manages indirect benefits such join their ecosystems. for insurance policies. the client relationship as improved customer The orchestrator Insurers benefit from for enquiries and claims stickiness, opportunities helps in the insurance access to a wider processing. to cross-sell and up- discovery, while customer base. WeSure sell core products insurance providers for example, takes etc. WeSure primarily underwrite and manage 1.5-2 months and 7-8 generates income the insurance product. iterations to develop a through commission fees. WeSure by Tencent, has product with partners. partnered with over 20 c. 50% of customers on insurance providers to WeSure are likely to offer insurance policies recommend insurance covering health, auto, policies to friends who life, and travel and caters are 2-3x more likely to to over 20mn customers. purchase the policies recommended. Source: DBS Bank
DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 81 30 Digital Insurer Digital insurers function like any typical traditional insurance provider, except its emphasis on digitalizing its operations. In the current landscape, digital insurers are typically either a subsidiary of a pre-existing insurance provider or are backed by a strong set of industry partners with good technical backgrounds, customer data access and expertise in insurance. Digital insurers maintain an end-to-end digital platform, handling the process from lead generation and underwriting to claims processing digitally. Risk assessment takes place via digital means and leverages data shared by the customer with the insurer and any data gathered from agreements with ecosystem partners. Like traditional insurers, digital insurers generate revenue through premium and investment income. However, operational expenses are not necessarily lower in this model as a significant portion of the insurer’s revenue is shared with its partners facilitating the insurance process. An example of a Digital Insurer is ZhongAn, the first online-only insurer specializing in Property and Casualty insurance policies. ZhongAn is also backed by two technology giants and a leading insurer in China – Alibaba, Tencent and Ping An. The three entities hold c. 33% ownership stake and assists the company through the provision of technical support, access to customers, insurance expertise and assistance in co-creating new insurance policies. In terms of business strategy, ZhongAn mainly focuses on micro-premium and repetitive insurance policies around six consumer-focused ecosystems (Health, Auto, Travel, Consumer finance, Lifestyle consumption). ZhongAn’s insurance policies are also well integrated with its partner ecosystems, which allows for easier distribution. For example, one of ZhongAn’s best- selling shipping return policies is made available on e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba’s. Another example of its integration with its partner ecosystems is ZhongAn’s insurance policy for buyer and sellers to cover return shipping costs. This greatly alleviates Chinese buyers’ concerns about product quality when they make purchases online. As a Digital Insurer, ZhongAn has largely digitised its underwriting and claims management process. Data analytics are used to personalise insurance policies and pricing to customers. Claims are also largely digitised with certain policies carrying fully-automated claims processing. For example, customers who purchase ZhongAn’s Flight Delay Policy are reimbursed automatically into their WeChat Pay accounts if flights are delayed beyond certain amount of time as specified in the policy. Despite rapid growth in premiums it has underwritten, ZhongAn still remains unprofitable as the insurer is still scaling up its platform in a bid to add new ecosystem partners to its network. Despite acting purely as a digital insurer, ZhongAn shares c. 30% of its net premiums underwritten with its ecosystem partners for distribution and customer access. This is largely in-line with c. 40% channel fees paid by Brick and Motor insurance players in China.
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