CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Air University Air War College Maxwell AFB, Alabama Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with nuclear, biological and chemical threats and attacks. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. Established here at the Air War College in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-cps.htm for in-depth information and specific points of contact. Please direct any questions or comments on CPC Outreach Journal to Lt. Col. Michael W. Ritz, CPC Intelligence/Public Affairs or JoAnn Eddy, CPC Executive Assistant at (334) 953- 7538 or DSN 493-7538. The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. Christian Science Monitor June 13, 2000 Pg. 9 Profile / Kim Dae-Jung By Michael Baker, Special to The Christian Science Monitor SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA -- For South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, the summit is a political triumph and the zenith of his career as a reconciler. Kim was branded a Communist for his vision of national reunification and democracy during his 1971 presidential campaign against dictator Park Chung Hee. The ex-dissident has survived what he calls four attempts on his life by previous military governments and endured 14 years of exile, house arrest, and imprisonment. Kim says he kept himself going with his Roman Catholic faith and a strong sense of justice.
During his years in prison, Kim imagined debating North Korea's founding father and dictator Kim Il Sung - conversations he likened to a chess match - and formulated a long-term plan for peacefully reunifying Korea. The process of gradual integration would begin with cooperative projects to build confidence, leading to a joint parliament, a confederation, and then a federal government. South Korea became democratic in 1987 but it took popular discontent over an economic crisis and Kim's alliance with former political enemies before he was elected president in 1997. Since then he has been implementing his ideas about making peace with North Korea. Kim began his term by pardoning ex-president Chun Doo Hwan after his conviction for treason and corruption. Mr. Chun had sentenced Kim to death in 1980 for "antistate activities," although Kim was saved by US intervention. Kim says he reveres Abraham Lincoln for his sense of forgiveness and reconciliation following the Civil War. The South Korean president sometimes quotes a phrase from Lincoln's second inaugural address: "With malice toward none; with charity for all...." His "sunshine policy" of engaging North Korea has allowed unprecedented business and cultural links between the two Koreas and encouraged other countries to normalize relations with the North. The South Korean conglomerate Hyundai, which runs tourist cruises to a scenic mountain in North Korea, has plans for a multibillion-dollar industrial park if relations improve. This year, Italy and Australia became the first Western nations to establish diplomatic ties with the North. One old friend of the president says he is hankering for the Nobel Peace Prize. Staff writers Cameron W. Barr in Seoul and Kevin Platt in Beijing contributed to this report. Christian Science Monitor June 13, 2000 Pg. 9 Profile / Kim Jong II By Michael Baker, Special to The Christian Science Monitor SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA -- If the summit is a victory lap for Kim Dae Jung, it is more like a coming-out party for North Korean leader Kim Jong II. Observers will be trying to ascertain whether Kim Jong II is taking North Korea in a new direction or trying to squeeze more food, fuel, and cash from an eager talking partner. More fundamentally, they will be trying to divine who he really is. South Korea's intelligence agency had long portrayed North Korea's leader - officially the chairman of the National Defense Commission - as a world-class oddball. The agency described him as a reclusive binge drinker who pulled the strings behind deadly terrorist attacks. So South Koreans were shocked when their president told a Japanese television interviewer in February that "Kim [Jong Il] has a level of judgment, knowledge, and discernment befitting a [national] leader." The comment was the beginning of a charm offensive and re-appraisal of the North Korean. Analysts now credit Kim Jong II for surviving what they assume to be a Byzantine political world in Pyongyang and pulling off the first Communist hereditary succession in history. Long groomed for leadership by his father, Kim Il Sung, the son reportedly held the real power in North Korea even before the elder Kim died in 1994. Despite reports of a thwarted coup attempt in 1995 and several years of famine, Kim appears to have solidified his control over the country, although he is still considered beholden to the military. His initial cooperation with South Korea may have taught him that a gradual opening is more manageable than the economic collapse and threats to his regime that might result from keeping North Korea closed. The summit, say analysts, is happening because Kim Jong II feels confident enough to have it. His visit to Beijing last month - his first trip abroad in 17 years - helped reinforce his new image. Kim met with with President Jiang Zemin and visited a computer factory, saying he hadn't realized how far China had come. "On meeting Kim Jong II for the first time, the [Chinese] Communist Party leaders decided that Kim was not as radical and bent on war as they previously feared," says a Chinese official and North Korea expert who asked not to be identified. He says that Kim was behind the North's lashing out at China for introducing free-market reforms two decades ago, when "Beijing was labeled a traitor to the world socialist movement."
The Chinese official says that Kim has modeled his ruling style after Chairman Mao Zedong, and has repeated the worst mistakes Mao made during his 1949-76 reign. "North Korea is now in the middle of [their versions of a] Great Leap Forward [when collectivization led to millions of deaths from famine] and a Cultural Revolution," when Mao destroyed most of his fellow revolutionaries and ruled through a brutal personality cult. "But Kim knows that his policies have caused widespread starvation, and he is starting to realize that he must reform North Korea's economy," the official continues. And even though the North Korean leader presides over one of the most isolated nations on the planet, the official adds, "Kim Jong II likes to surf the Internet and watch satellite TV." Staff writers Cameron W. Barr in Seoul and Kevin Platt in Beijing contributed to this report. New York Times June 15, 2000 Pg. 1 Koreas Reach Accord Seeking Reconciliation After 50 Years By Howard W. French SEOUL, South Korea, Thursday, June 15 -- With surprising speed and warmth, the presidents of North and South Korea reached a broad agreement on Wednesday to work for peace and unity on their bitterly divided peninsula, the biggest step by either side to ease tensions in 50 years. The agreement, which came after more than three hours of talks in the North Korea capital, Pyongyang, on the second day of their first summit meeting, was signed and toasted by President Kim Dae Jung of South Korea and President Kim Jong Il of the North, who were shown on South Korean television clinking champagne glasses, shaking hands vigorously and smiling broadly. The agreement, while deliberately vague, had clearly left both men buoyant. If carried through, the accord would reduce the precarious isolation of the North and address many basic points that have long been seen as keys to ending the cold war on the heavily fortified peninsula, where the United States still maintains 37,000 troops. The general points agreed on included the need for reconciliation and unification; the establishment of peace; the commencement in August of exchange visits by members of divided families; and more cultural exchanges. In addition, it was agreed that Kim Jong Il would visit Seoul "at the earliest appropriate moment." The two sides also discussed the creation of offices in each other's capitals, and establishing a hot line between their leaders. "At this very hour, the attention of the 70 million Korean people is drawn to Pyongyang, and the eyes of the entire world are riveted to this place," the South Korean president said in a banquet prior to the signing. "For the first time, the Korean people can see a bright future as a dawn of hope for reconciliation, cooperation and unification is breaking." While the agreement provides no road map for the future and did not address pressing security issues, it left many people here hopeful that a decisive turn was shaping up in relations between two governments that have vilified each other for decades. In addition, the emergence of the reclusive North Korean leader in the role of a jovial statesman was certain to challenge the image of North Korea as a "rogue state" so dangerous that Washington is proposing to spend billions of dollars on an antimissile system to defend against it. "It is important to remember the symbolic importance of this meeting," said a diplomat. "Hopefully, things will continue to proceed from here, but this has already been an unexpected success." If the agreements lacked the kind of fine detail that is often carefully worked out in important negotiations like these, they may have more than compensated for that by the strongly personal imprimatur placed on them by leaders whose repeated performances before the cameras left no doubts about their enthusiasm. "In societies as hierarchical as Korea, that counts for a lot," said Leon V. Sigal, a North Korea expert at Columbia University. "In the North, having Kim Jong Il sign his name to a communiqué like this makes it the equivalent of dogma." Perhaps the brightest moment of the day came at the toast shared by the two leaders at the signing ceremony, which took place at 11:20 p.m. on Wednesday and was broadcast in South Korea an hour later.
While the 75-year-old South Korean president paused between draughts as he tried to empty his glass, the younger Kim Jong Il, who has been characterized in the South as a heavy drinker, tilted his head back and finished his champagne in one go. One of the meeting's most significant achievements was to help fill in a sketchy portrait of the 58-year-old Kim Jong Il, who has been caricatured outside his country as a crackpot and a playboy. He was frequently on view again on Wednesday, for the second consecutive day, as he was shown talking with his southern counterpart in a relaxed and self-confident manner. He himself joked about his reputation as a recluse. "Westerners seem to have been very anxious about why I live like a hermit," he said in an informal chat with Kim Dae Jung, moments before the two leaders went into a two-hour and 20-minute meeting. "And now, with your visit, they've got the answer." Seeking to dispel this image, the North Korean leader said he had traveled overseas many times, naming two countries he had visited, China and Indonesia, but said that he had done so secretly. Kim Dae Jung, who had smiled politely throughout this impromptu banter, set off laughter among the aides in the room from both sides when, referring to the reports about the North Korean leader, he replied, "You seem to know everything." South Koreans, who paused from work throughout the day to watch the events on television, and were riveted to the their screens for the dramatic late night conclusion, expressed surprise about the warm and apparently relaxed atmosphere surrounding the talks, which began with the unexpected greeting of Kim Dae Jung by the northern president upon his arrival at the airport. Many people said they were impressed by how normal and personable the mysterious northern leader was, after years of denigrating propaganda in the south. "This will change the relationship between the two countries," said Park Han Sung, a clerk at an eyeglass shop in downtown Seoul. "Maybe nothing dramatic will happen right away," he added, "but most people would agree that a surprising amount of progress and understanding has been achieved already." In his reply to the South Korean leader's banquet toast, the second-ranking figure in North Korea, Kim Young Nam, said: "History gives us opportunities only once. Reunification is not for the future but for the present." Western journalists, who were not invited to the North for the summit meeting, covered it via a special television link in Seoul and were told to expect a streamlined, four-point agreement. But the final text appeared to have hastily added other items, like language about a search for reconciliation and respect for each country's political system, both of which appeared to be included to appease the prickly North. For Pyongyang, there was also little doubt that mention of increased exchanges in fact meant a boost in aid and investment from the South that northern leaders hope will prop up their failing economy. Famine in the North has claimed the lives of as many as two million people, according to the estimates of aid workers and outside experts. The southern delegation rushed to leave little doubt of its willingness to help, on Wednesday offering to speed delivery of 200,000 tons of fertilizer, and also reportedly offering to provide $450 million in economic assistance. For the South Korean leader, progress on reunion was a vital gauge of the success of the meeting. Seven million of his compatriots have relatives in the North. "Many of the family members are passing away due to their advanced age," Mr. Kim said in a speech intended to give a clear sense of urgency to their agenda. "We have to attend to their life-long wishes." While both sides clearly have direct interests in reconciliation and reaching a peace agreement to finally end the state of war that formally persists between them, those interests are also keenly shared by the United States, China, Japan and other countries. Japan has only recently renewed diplomatic contacts with North Korea, after a breech caused by Pyongyang's test- firing of a ballistic missile over Japan in 1998. Washington has long been engaged in painstaking negotiations with North Korea seeking an end to the country's missile program, as well as a commitment not to develop or deploy nuclear weapons. For American defense planners, the divided peninsula remains one the most dangerous spots on the planet and the North's weapons programs have been seen as so potentially threatening that Washington is considering spending billions of dollars on a missile defense system to counter them. How events of this summit meeting will shape those perceptions remains to be seen, but the North Korean leader has cleverly succeeded in changing an image that has alternated from flake to a modern-day Dr. Strangelove. By showing himself far more publicly than ever before in meetings with the country's historic arch-enemy, whose peace initiatives he accepted with little of the North's usual intractability, he may have powerfully affected the dynamics surrounding American proposals to build an expensive antimissile shield.
North Korea's missile program has been the leading justification in Washington for the unproven shield. But Pyongyang has already suspended testing of missiles for over a year at Washington's request, and Mr. Kim's détente with the South, if upheld, with further chip away at the regime's image as being dangerous and unpredictable. Despite the good feeling of the last two days, leaders in Seoul and elsewhere are likely to remain wary of the North's promises. "I think it's very important that they've met, it's very important that they've signed this agreement," Joe Lockhart, the White House spokesman, said in Washington. "But I think it's also very important that a process comes out of this summit that allows them to implement the important work they have agreed to in the last two days." The South Korean president took a moment out to bluntly advise his North Korean counterpart, "It is important to improve your relations with the United States and Japan." Over the last 20 years, the North and the South have held innumerable rounds of lower-level talks on issues like the reunion of families, and twice before such agreements have later come apart. Most recently, in 1991, talks led to an agreement promoting peace and eventual reunification, but it was never put into practice, partly because of a dispute over the North's suspected development of nuclear weapons. And in the 1970's, Red Cross officials of both sides began talks that lasted 14 years on the reunification of families, bearing only meager results. President Kim Dae Jung, who is expected to fly home later today around a border that separates over a million men under arms, often spoke with passion to his host in their second day of meetings. In one statement he told his younger counterpart that, in the age of the Internet, competition between nations now rests on brain power and economic strength, and no longer so much on the weapons of old. "To survive the fierce international competition, the North and South must be one," he said. "I would like to quote an old proverb: 'United, strength and mind wins over heaven.' When all Korean people join forces, there is nothing we cannot achieve." 7 Jun 00. (Editors Note: The following paragraph is from a message relating an Air Force Major Command's concerns regarding readiness in a Chem/Bio environment.) AF MAJCOM READINESS CONCERNS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT O&M FUNDING TO MAINTAIN 100% CHEMICAL WARFARE DEFENSE ENSEMBLES FOR NBC READINESS. IN ADDITION, MODERNIZATION FUNDING IS INSUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE FULL SPECTRUM OF NEW RESOURCES TO INCREASE CAPABILITIES IN A TIMELY MANNER. A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ACC'S AIR AND GROUND CREWS CANNOT BE PROTECTED IN A CHEMICAL-BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE AIR FORCE HAS LIMITED CAPABILITIES FOR CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL AGENT DETECTION, IMPACTING ABILITY TO WARN PERSONNEL BEFORE EXPOSURE TO THE AGENTS. THE JOINT SERVICE INTEGRATION GROUP IS AGGRESSIVELY ALLOCATING LIMITED RESOURCES TO THE MODERNIZATION ROADMAP. RECOMMEND SUPPORT TO FULLY FUND THESE "HIGH LEVERAGE" PROGRAMS.
You can also read